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**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:19 PM

Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Preview

The Phillies are 8-4 in Cole Hamels’ 12 home starts this season.
The San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies play the middle game of their 3-game series on ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball in what could be another NLCS preview.

Citizens Bank Park is the location and start time is 4:00 p.m. (PT). This will be a battle of lefties with Barry Zito versus Cole Hamels.

The Giants upset the Phils last year in the NLCS on the way to winning the World Series. The first meeting between the teams this year was Tuesday night (result pending). Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum was a rare +100 underdog against Vance Worley.

The Phillies (64-37) have all but wrapped up a playoff spot with the NL’s best record. They started this homestand with three wins over San Diego before losing (5-4) on Monday. They have MLB’s best home record (37-16) for +11.9 units, and haven’t lost a home series since early May.

Hamels (12-5, 2.62 ERA) had his worst start since early April right after the All-Star break, allowing seven earned runs over 4 1/3 innings at the Mets (11-2 loss). He rebounded last Friday at home versus San Diego, one run and three hits over eight innings in a 3-1 win.

The 27-year-old was named an All-Star and is tied with teammate Roy Halladay and Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens for the NL win lead. His OPS allowed (.565) is second in the league behind the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (.560).

Hamels has a 2.29 ERA at home, with Philadelphia going 8-4. He faced the Giants in Game 3 of the NLCS last year, surrendering three runs (two earned) over six innings and getting out-dueled by Matt Cain (3-0 road loss).

Hamels’ lifetime regular season record against San Fran is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA in eight starts. The Giants are 17-6 in their last 23 road games against a left-handed starter.

San Francisco (59-43) is also in good shape for a playoff berth with a four-game lead over Arizona in the NL West. The Giants got a day off on Monday after starting 7-3 since the break.

Zito (3-2, 4.78 ERA) had three starts in April (6.23 ERA) before going on the DL with a foot injury. He returned in late June and surprised everyone by winning three straight games (1.29 ERA). Giants’ fans finally thought Zito may start earning his big paycheck.

The 33-year-old came crashing back to Earth on July 16 at San Diego. He surrendered eight earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in an 11-3 loss. The outing was so bad that he had his start skipped and will be working on 10 days rest.

Zito has only three lifetime starts in Philadelphia, having spent the first seven years of his career in the AL. He surrendered four earned runs over five innings in a 9-3 loss at Citizens Bank last year.

Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 home games versus a left-handed starter.

The Giants are just 27-25 on the road this year (+1.9 units), compared to 32-18 at home (+8.9 units). However, they’re 5-2 in their last seven away.

The ‘over’ is 6-0 in San Francisco’s last six road games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Philly’s last five home games.

San Fran took two of three in Philly in the playoffs last year, but is 5-17 in the last 22 in the regular season there.

Philadelphia has Placido Polanco (back) on the disabled list. The Giants have Miguel Tejada (abdominal) and Pat Burrell (foot) on the DL, with Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez already out for the year.

Weather should be clear and warm in the 80s. The pitching matchup for Thursday’s finale is Cain against Kyle Kendrick.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:22 PM

Pirates, Braves Continue Set At Turner Field

Seemingly the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates took on the Atlanta Braves in a game with any meaning, Sid Bream was chugging around the bases and sliding into home in Game 7 of the NLCS to rip the hearts out of the Steel City.

It's almost 19 years later, and these two will renew acquaintances once again in the Peach State in MLB betting action. Tuesday's 4:10 p.m. (PT) clash is the second of this 4-game set at Turner Field, and the stakes are quite high.

Atlanta enters the week tied for the second-best record in the National League and comfortably in the NL Wild Card position. However, thanks to some mediocre play over the last two weeks, including losing two out of three to the Cincinnati Reds this past weekend, the gap is narrowing between the Braves and the rest of the pack for that final postseason bid in the NL.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is five games above .500, marking the first time the Bucs have been above the mark this late in the season since those glory days in '92. The Pirates are 26-22 on the road entering this series and have the best profit margin in the league at +15.60 units. More importantly though, they're in a four-team scrum to win the NL Central and are currently tied for first place.

Do the Pirates really have a Cy Young Award pitcher on their team? No, Jeff Karstens hasn't pitched like Roy Halladay or Jair Jurrjens, but his numbers are pretty special in 2011.

The righty has really rejuvenated his career this season, and he's going to hope to improve upon this on Tuesday at Turner Field. Karstens' 8-5 record is easily the best of his career, as are seemingly the rest of his splits as well.

Karstens has a 2.28 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and batters are only hitting .238 against him. With eight innings pitched on Tuesday, he'll reach a career-high for innings in a season, and he is 11 strikeouts away from a career best in that category to boot.

You have to go back to April 17 to find the last time that Karstens allowed more than three runs in a game. He has allowed a total of just two earned runs in his last three starts covering 23 innings.

We're wondering if Karstens' pitching foe on Tuesday, Tommy Hanson, is starting to feel the ill effects of throwing a ton of innings. His last two starts have been absolutely awful. He was lucky to escape Coors Field with a win over the Colorado Rockies after conceding six runs in as many innings, and he allowed five runs in 5 1/3-innings of work against the Washington Nationals the start before that.

Still, Hanson has had a great season, posting an 11-5 mark with a 3.06 ERA. Batters are only hitting .203 against him despite the last two iffy outings. Hanson has only been beaten once since May 27, and he has a solid 5-3 record and 2.85 ERA at Turner Field this season.

Don't be surprised if rain gets in the way of the first two or three games of this series. There are storms in the forecast on both Monday and Tuesday in Atlanta, and that rain could spill into Wednesday as well. Temperatures should be toasty in the mid-80s, but the chance for inclement weather is high between 60%-80%.

TV coverage for Tuesday's clash can be found on ROOT Sports TV and on Sports South.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:25 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

July 26, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Blue Jays are 12-0 since May 28, 2010 as a 140+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1200.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pirates are 0-8 OU since May 26, 2010 as a 140+ dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rays are 10-0 since June 26, 2010 when David Price starts as a favorite when the team is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 0-13 (-2.5 rpg) when seeking immediate revenge for an extra-inning loss in which their starter went more than five innings.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Angels are 7-0 since July 09, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $880.

The Yankees are 8-0 since May 30, 2010 as a home 200+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $800.

The Athletics are 0-6 since May 07, 2010 as a home dog when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:29 PM

Around the Horn - Tuesday

July 25, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Nolasco (6-7, 4.08 ERA) 4-6 L10 OVER 8-3 L11 vs division
Zimmermann (6-8, 3.00 ERA) 1-4 L5 7-2 L9 home Game 1's

Marlins beat Mets, 5-4 on Sunday
Nationals lost to Dodgers, 3-1 on Sunday

San Francisco at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lincecum (8-8, 2.90 ERA) 4-6 L10 6-2 L8 away Game 1's
Worley (6-1, 2.02 ERA) 8-2 L10 18-1 home off loss

Giants beat Brewers, 2-1 on Sunday
Phillies lost to Padres, 5-4 on Monday

Pittsburgh at Atlanta - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Karstens (8-5, 2.28 ERA) 6-4 L10 7-0 L7 on Tuesdays
Hanson (11-5, 3.06 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 6-1 L7 home Game 2's

Pirates beat Braves, 3-1 on Monday

N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Niese (9-8, 3.76 ERA) 3-5 L8 OVER 8-3 L11 away Game 2's
Cueto (6-3, 1.98 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 5-1 home on Tuesdays

Mets beat Reds, 4-2 on Monday

Chicago at Milwaukee - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Dempster (7-7, 5.00 ERA) 2-5 L7 1-8 L9 away off win
Narveson (6-6, 4.45 ERA) 5-5 L10 15-4 home off loss

Cubs beat Astros, 5-4 on Sunday
Brewers lost to Giants, 2-1 on Sunday

Houston at St. Louis - 8:15 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Myers (3-10, 4.74 ERA) 2-5 L7 2-9 L11 away Game 2's
Westbrook (8-4, 5.04 ERA) 5-5 L10 5-1 home on Tuesdays

Cardinals beat Astros, 10-5 on Monday

Arizona at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Saunders (6-8, 3.82 ERA) 3-6 L9 UNDER 7-1 L8 away vs division
Moseley (3-9, 3.19 ERA) 3-5 L8 4-2 L6 home off win

Diamondbacks beat Rockies, 7-0 on Sunday
Padres beat Phillies, 5-4 on Monday

Colorado at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chacin (8-7, 3.60 ERA) 3-7 L10 3-6 L9 away Game 2's
Kershaw (11-4, 2.72 ERA) 3-5 L8 1-4 L5 on Tuesdays

Dodgers beat Rockies, 8-5 on Monday

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Weaver (13-4, 1.81 ERA) 4-2 L6 3-6 L9 on Tuesdays
Tomlin (11-4, 4.12 ERA) 3-6 L9 2-5 L7 home Game 2's

Indians beat Angels, 3-2 on Monday

Seattle at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Fister (3-11, 3.30 ERA) 0-16 L16 UNDER 7-3 L10 away vs LHP
Sabathia (14-5, 2.62 ERA) 7-3 L10 10-4 L14 home vs RHP

Yankees beat Mariners, 10-3 on Monday

Baltimore at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Arrieta (9-7, 5.02 ERA) 4-6 L10 0-7 L7 Game 1's
Morrow (7-4, 4.34 ERA) 6-3 L9 OVER 13-3 home Game 1's

Orioles lost to Angels, 9-3 on Sunday
Blue Jays beat Rangers, 3-0 on Sunday

Kansas City at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Duffy (2-4, 4.58 ERA) 5-1 L6 2-5 away on Tuesdays
Miller (4-1, 4.65 ERA) 7-2 L9 8-4 L12 home Game 2's

Royals beat Red Sox, 3-1 on Monday

Minnesota at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pavano (6-7, 4.24 ERA) 3-6 L9 2-5 L7 away Game 2's
Wilson (10-4, 2.94 ERA) 15-3 L18 7-3 L10 Game 2's

Rangers beat Twins, 20-6 on Monday

Detroit at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Verlander (13-5, 2.24 ERA) 5-3 L8 OVER 8-2 away favorite vs RHP
Peavy (4-4, 5.19 ERA) 6-3 L9 1-7 L8 home vs RHP

White Sox beat Tigers, 6-3 on Monday

Tampa Bay at Oakland - 10:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Price (9-8, 3.67 ERA) 3-7 L10 3-7 L10 away Game 2's
McCarthy (2-5, 3.74 ERA) 5-5 L10 7-3 L10 home Game 2's

Athletics beat Rays, 7-5 on Monday

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:31 PM

MLB Betting Notes

July 25, 2011

Whatever happened to the days of when the stolen base was a major force in an offensive attack? While home runs were being jacked out to record proportions over the last 18 years, managers were more reluctant to risk the runner being out and waste a possible two-run home run. But we’ve seen a major decline in power numbers the last two years that might warrant a skipper gambling a little more for those important runs.
When looking at teams that don’t hit for power -- mostly West Coast teams, it’s surprising that they wouldn’t try to make the most out of a single or walk by turning it into a double or triple with stealing a base or two. The Mariners don’t score a lot of runs, but if they were more aggressive with their runners on first, they might be in better position to score.

Of course it takes a good base stealer to do it. Not everyone can steal a base. There is a definite art to it, but it just seems like that art hasn’t been passed down with as much emphasis lately and it kind skipped a generation from the minor leagues all the way up the majors.

The 1980’s were rampant with speedsters as we watched both Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman top 100 steals three times each. Last season’s league leaders were Michael Bourn (52) and Juan Pierre (68).

In the 1970’s we had Lou Brock getting over 100 bags with Ron Leflore and Omar Moreno coming close. Maury Wills hit the century mark in the pitching dominated 1960’s, but then there is a trudging lull in history, a power hitting era, all the way back to Ty Cobb snagging 97 in 1915.

The San Diego Padres, with manager Bud Black, have been the most aggressive on the base paths this season with 108 steals as he tries to maximize his few opportunities to put a runner in scoring position. Their success rate has been a very good 80%, but their win rate is still one of the worst in baseball.

Black played in the era when Coleman and Henderson wreaked havoc in games and may be ahead of the curve a little bit. Many of the current managers played, or were heavily involved in the game at that time as well, so perhaps, someone is just waiting for a team to be successful to follow the winning formula.

Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals from the 1980’s should still serve as the blue print for any manager pondering a more aggressive approach on the bases. They killed with speed and stole wins regularly to three pennants and a Championship.

From a fan standpoint, there aren’t too many more exciting things in baseball than the battle between a top flight base stealer against the pitcher and catcher when everyone in the stadium knows the runner is going, and then does it.

Perhaps just watching Rickey Henderson so much in the 80’s spoiled me to the point where I think it can be recreated rather than accepting that he may have been a once in a lifetime legend. But when I see catchers collectively throwing out only 26% of the runners, I have to believe that a more aggressive approach to get runners in scoring position in this new less powerful era would be a winning move.

Hamilton Day-Break

Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has been having trouble with his eyesight during day games this season. In the day, he’s hitting ,111 (7-for-63) with no home runs and 24 strikeouts. At night, Hamilton hits a robust .358 (69-for-193) with 13 home runs and 25 strikeouts.

After expressing that he may be having some issues with his vision, he was diagnosed with ‘blue eyes’ which allows more light during the day to the cornea. Hamilton has been told that it’s possible that dried up sweat from the night before forms a thin layer of film over his eyes. Between lots of eye drops and wearing sunglasses, Hamilton hopes to improve upon his day struggles.

If looking for a betting angle because of it, it’s not there. The Rangers are 16-14 in day games this season. However, the combination of Hamilton not seeing well in the day and slugging third-baseman Adrian Beltre being recently put on the disabled list could be cause for a bet-against. The Rangers play days games at Toronto on Saturday and Sunday.

Mid-Season Call Ups

We had a few top prospects get mid-season call-ups from the minors and the first casualty came last week when the Padres sent down first-baseman Anthony Rizzo after batting only .143 in 35 games. He was in a July funk that saw him go 4-for-41 (.098) and get one hit in his final 25 bats.

It’s a tough decision teams have to make regarding their top prospects. Most of them are having great seasons in the minors, but the call up to the big leagues can be overwhelming for some. The team doesn’t want the players’ success to be wasted in the minors when he could be doing in the majors, but they also want to groom him properly to be ready for the daily pressure. Bringing up a player too soon could have a negative lasting affect that ruins the investment made in him. In Rizzo’s case, they gave up Adrian Gonzalez who is an AL MVP candidate in Boston right now.

Last week the Tampa Bay Rays finally called up one of the baseball’s top prospects, Desmond Jennings, a 24-year-old outfielder, may have spent too much time in the minors for such a highly sought after prospect. He got the September call up last year and even got to play in two postseason games, but had to wait until last week to get a big league at-bat this season. He responded big going 4-for-6 in his first two games with two doubles and a triple and it‘s likely that he‘s there to stay.

Dustin Ackley was the second player taken overall by the Mariners in the 2009 draft after leading North Carolina to three straight College World Series appearances. After a year-and-a-half in the minors, Seattle called him on June 17 and in just over a month of play, he’s now batting third in the lineup and hitting .297. Perhaps his college play on the large stage helped his rapid advancement, but it’s apparent that he is ready to be a big-league player and the team made the right move.

Anaheim’s Mike Trout, a 19-year-old, got his call up to the majors quickly after winning just about every minor league award possible last season. He’s got the rare five-tool combination that all teams covet, but he started out slowly his first two weeks in the majors batting .133 coming into last weekend’s series at Baltimore. In that series, Trout had his coming of age party and proved he could play in the majors going 3-for-9 with his first home run and first stolen base. Prior to that Baltimore series, several writers were suggesting that Trout was brought up too soon and could damage the progression of his career.

Vegas Star in Hall

Congratulations go out to former Las Vegas Stars second-baseman Roberto Alomar who was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday. He is second Stars player to be inducted. Tony Gwynn played 17 games for the Stars in 1983, the first year of Triple-A baseball in Las Vegas. Although Alomar only played in Las Vegas for a little over a week in 1988 before getting called up to the Padres, we’re still proud to have been associated with just a little part of his great career and call him one of ours.

In 2014, Las Vegans will be able to rejoice when home grown candidate, Greg Maddux, gets inducted as a first ballot hall-of-famer.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:34 PM

MLB Series Outlook: San Francisco at Philadelphia

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (59-43, +11.0 Units)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (64-37, +12.4 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Philadelphia -180, San Francisco +140

The last time we saw the National League’s two best teams, San Francisco and Philadelphia, hooking up on the diamond was last October. Ryan Howard went down looking at strike three. The tying and winning runs were left stranded on base, Brian Wilson’s lovely beard lived to see another day (and then some), and the Giants celebrated a National League Pennant, ending Philly’s two-year reign.

Today, the two teams continue to dominate their respective divisions despite a plethora of debilitating injuries to key position players up and down their lineups. Once again, the Giants and Phils are doing it with pitching and plenty of it. That starting pitching will be on display over the next three days at Citizens Bank Park, though not as much as normal. While the Phillies will have to deal with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, who combined for two victories in last year’s NLCS, San Francisco will miss out on facing Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Both teams are 7-3 since the All-Star break, but the Giants have the pitching edge in two of the three games. In a slight upset, expect SAN FRANCISCO to win the series.

The FoxSheets show a four-star reason to pick the Giants.

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. (39-13 since 1997.) (75%, +28.8 units. Rating = 4*).

Despite having an offense in the bottom third of the league in runs scored and batting average, an offense that is the only team in the league without a player with 10 homers, the Giants (59-43) continue to find a way to finish games with more runs than the opponent, and a bullpen that is as gritty as the starters they complement. San Francisco relievers are 22-12 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year. With 33 runs in their past six games, the Phillies offense is showing signs of waking up for good. Meanwhile, with eight runs in its past four games, the Giants offense is looking like status quo.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 - 7:05 ET
Tuesday line: Philadelphia -115, San Francisco +105, Total: 7
SF: 12-9 (-0.75 Units) when Tim Lincecum starts
PHI: 8-2 (+6.10 Units) when Vance Worley starts
At 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA, Vance Worley has done as good a job as anyone could have expected when it comes to filling the shoes of one of Philadelphia’s four aces, in this case, Roy Oswalt. Now he gets a chance to really see what it feels like to go toe-to-toe with an ace, when he tries to out-duel “The Freak” Tim Lincecum. Worley has won four straight starts and has led the Phillies to wins in each of his past six outings. During that stretch the young right-hander has allowed just four earned runs (0.94 ERA). If stinginess is a prerequisite for beating Lincecum, then the Phils might have one of their best candidates on the mound Tuesday. While “The Freak” is only 8-8 on the year, his 2.90 ERA is a testament to how well he has pitched this season. Still, rare is the moment that Lincecum is the one with the higher ERA in a pitching matchup. Worley will be facing Frisco for the first time in his young career, while Lincecum is 3-2 lifetime versus Philly, winning Game 1 of last year’s NLCS (defeating Roy Halladay) before losing Game 5 of the same series.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 - 7:05 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
SF: 4-3 (+1.55 Units) when Barry Zito starts
PHI: 14-7 (+3.05 Units) when Cole Hamels starts
Normally Cole Hamels’ stats (12-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) would be cause for Cy Young front-runner status, but with teammate Roy Halladay and Jair Jurrjens pitching in the same league and controlling the Cy Young debate, Hamels will have to settle for being the Jack Tripper of the NL (“Three’s Company”). Nonetheless, the Giants will have to prepare as if they’re taking on an ace. Maybe the best thing they could do is to dress up in New York Mets uniforms. Hamels is 1-2, and has allowed 22 hits and 15 runs in 14 innings versus the Mets; he is 11-3 against the rest of the league. If the “rest of the league” Hamels shows up Wednesday night, it could be a long night for the Giants. Barry Zito will try and keep his team in the game. He has won three of his past four starts since returning to the rotation, but in his most recent outing versus the Padres (a team not normally confused with the ’27 Yankees), he was pounded for seven hits and eight runs in 3.2 innings.

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 28 - 7:05 ET
Thursday line: TBD
SF: 13-8 (+3.90 Units) when Matt Cain starts
PHI: 5-4 (+0.90 Units) when Kyle Kendrick starts
Cain was very able last October when he shut down the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLCS, out-dueling Cole Hamels that afternoon, and allowing his team to take a lead in the series that they ultimately never relinquished. In his past five starts, though, Cain is 1-2 with two no-decisions. Still, his ERA is an impressive 3.06. Kendrick, who has been Mr. Everything on the Phils pitching staff this year (short man, long relief, spot starter, now-extended spot starter), has an ERA close to 4.00 and has taken four no-decisions in his past six outings. He also does not strike out that many batters (his season high is five), but where Kendrick excels is keeping his team in the game. If this series, and this game, takes on a playoff atmosphere (and there is little reason that it shouldn’t), then Kendrick will have to be at his very best. If Cain takes his game to playoff-atmosphere mode, that could be bad news for the home team. Cain is 2-0 in three career postseason starts, and has not allowed an earned run in 21.1 innings pitched.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:35 PM

Chicago looks for 4th straight win Tuesday

DETROIT TIGERS (54-48, +0.4 Units)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (50-51, -4.9 Units)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -155, Chicago +145, Total: 7.5

Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Detroit Total Runs: 4 – Over (-115), Under (-115)
Chicago Total Runs: 3 – Over (-115), Under (-115)
Team to Score First: Detroit (-180), Chicago (+150)
Justin Verlander Total Strikeouts: 6.5 – Over (-105), Under (-125)

The White Sox try to win their fourth straight contest when they host Detroit for the second of a three-game set on Tuesday night at Comerica Park. Chicago beat the Tigers 6-3 on Monday to creep to 3½ games behind them atop the AL Central.

This game will pit two big-name pitchers in Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy. Chicago crushed Verlander 8-2 less than two weeks ago on July 15, starting a good stretch of baseball that has seen the South Siders go 6-3. During this run, the White Sox pitching has been brilliant, posting a 1.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. But Peavy has been struggling lately and so have the Chicago bats, hitting .226 over the past seven games. That doesn’t bode well against Verlander who has thrown 10 quality starts in his past 11 outings, with the lone exception being the game versus Chicago when he allowed 4 ER in six innings. The pick here is DETROIT.

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to side with the Tigers.

DETROIT is 37-20 (64.9%, +16.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was DETROIT 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*).

VERLANDER is 21-3 (87.5%, +15.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was VERLANDER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*).

The Tigers have been a good play as a favorite this season, going 39-26 (60%, +4.1 Units), including 14-6 (70%, +4.9 Units) when favored with Verlander on the mound. Detroit is also 22-12 (65%, +7.7 Units) in division play. Meanwhile, Chicago has been a terrible bet both at home (22-25, -11.8 Units) and against AL Central foes (14-19, -8.5 Units).

Verlander (13-5, 2.24 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year with 162 strikeouts in 165 innings and a miniscule .191 opponents’ batting average. His road numbers are even more impressive at 6-2, 1.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 74 K, 13 BB and .183 opp. BA. After going winless in his first eight career starts at U.S. Cellular Field (0-6, 5.92 ERA), he has really learned how to pitch in Chicago over the past three seasons, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 24 strikeouts and just three walks.

Peavy finally ended a skid of six consecutive non-quality starts (6.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) when he pitched six innings and allowed three runs versus K.C. in his last outing on July 19. The last time he faced Detroit was June 5 when he was knocked around for six runs in just four innings of work. Peavy has a 5.23 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field this year, and with the Tigers’ bats heating up (.303 BA, .437 slugging pct. in past seven contests), he could be in for a long night.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:37 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Seattle at N.Y. Yankees

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-58, -14.8 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (59-40, +6.0 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -360, Seattle +280

It’s never a good time to play a team that has the third-best winning percentage in baseball (.596) like the 59-40 New York Yankees. When you’re the Seattle Mariners, and you’ve lost a franchise record 15 straight games, it’s not a good time to play anybody. The Bad News Bears would be a formidable opponent for Eric Wedge’s 43-58 team. Wedge, desperate for a change in karma, cut off his mustache before Sunday’s game. Late into the game, the closest the Mariners came to being inspired by their manager was when a late grand slam by Brendan Ryan cut into the Red Sox lead the way Wedge cut into his lip hairs. Wedge took out all of the mustache, his team, down eight at the time, could not take out all of the lead as the BoSox defeated them, 12-8. "This is definitely frustrating," Ryan said. "There aren't too many laughs now. There shouldn't be."

The Yankees enter the three-game set coming off of a series victory over the Oakland Athletics, doing it with an explosive offense, which generated 27 runs and 35 hits over the three games. The pick here is for heavily-favored NEW YORK to win the series from the struggling Mariners.

These FoxSheets back up the Yankees with these highly-rated trends.

Play Against - Any team (SEATTLE) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more. (50-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +32.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL). (176-56 since 1997.) (75.9%, +81.6 units. Rating = 3*).

While the Mariners enjoyed some success earlier this season against the Bronx Bombers, taking two of three from New York, they have struggled recently at Yankee Stadium, dropping 13 of the past 17 visits. Since June 10, the M’s have been dreadful on the road, losing 11 straight contests. That is in stark contrast to the Yankees who are 15-4 at home during that same timeframe.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 - 7:05 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
SEA: 5-15 (-9.05 Units) when Doug Fister starts
NYY: 16-6 (+6.85 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
Maybe Doug Fister will come out Tuesday and pitch like he’s the 14-game winner and perennial Cy Young candidate. Maybe Sabathia will become very human and look like a guy who is 3-11 on the year. Maybe pigs will fly. If you don’t believe in pitchers switching bodies, or bodies of work, the Yankees would appear to have the distinct advantage in this matchup. Sabathia defeated Seattle in May when he went eight innings and basically made just one mistake, a solo HR in the sixth inning to Justin Smoak. Sabathia has been borderline unconscious of late, winning seven of his past eight outings. The only loss came in his last start, a 2-1 defeat against Tampa Bay’s James Shields, a pitchers’ duel in the truest sense of the word. On May 30, Fister went 7.1 innings against the Orioles, allowing three runs and earning the win. That was the last time that Fister made his way into the win column this year. He has lost six games and had another three no-decisions in that stretch.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 - 1:05 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
SEA: 11-11 (-2.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
NYY: 3-3 (-0.70 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
If Phil Hughes is to assure the Yankees brass that he is back and at full strength since missing half of April and all of May and June with arm trouble, he will get the ultimate measuring stick when he is scheduled to start opposite “King” Felix Hernandez in a matinee affair on Wednesday. Considering the bottom-of-the-basement offense that the Mariners put on the field every day, the fact that Hernandez is 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA is a minor miracle. Nonetheless, he is human, evidenced by his last start when he allowed six runs and 11 hits over 6.1 innings as he was on the short end of a 7-4 loss to the Boston Red Sox. Hughes is looking to greatly improve on his last outing, when his team’s 17-run explosion was almost enough to overshadow the fact that he allowed seven runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings. Not exactly a quality start. Seattle enters this series with the worst hitting and lowest-scoring offense in baseball. New York enters a ridiculous 29-6 (83%, +21.2 Units) in day games this year. If Hughes struggles against this team like he did last Friday, expect fan hysteria in the Bronx to go into hyper mode with the trade deadline fast approaching.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 06:39 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Colorado at L.A. Dodgers

COLORADO ROCKIES (48-54, -19.4 Units)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (45-56, -14.9 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Los Angeles -150, Colorado +120

NL West rivals Colorado and Los Angeles open a three-game series on Monday night at Dodger Stadium. Neither team is playing very well heading into this week's series. The Rockies dropped their weekend series at Arizona, including losing the last two games by a combined score of 19-3. It was their sixth setback in nine games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just 3-5 in their past eight games, but did manage to take two of three from Washington at home.

Colorado is just 22-28 on the road, while L.A. is 25-28 at home. But the Dodgers, who will likely be favored in all three games, are 28-26 as a favorite this season, while the Rockies are a dismal 8-20 as an underdog. With the Dodgers having a huge edge in head-to-head meetings with the Rockies in the past three seasons (29-16, +16.9 Units), including 14-7 at Dodger Stadium, the pick here is for LOS ANGELES to win the series.

These two FoxSheets trends also like the Dodgers to take this series.

L.A. DODGERS are 113-57 (66.5%, +40.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was L.A. DODGERS 5.1, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

COLORADO is 10-24 (29.4%, -17.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 - 10:10 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
COL: 10-10 (-3.50 Units) when Jhoulys Chacin starts
LAD: 13-8 (+3.35 Units) when Clayton Kershaw starts
Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 3.60 ERA, 127.2 IP) is coming off consecutive no-decisions, and has lost three straight prior to those outings. Chacin allowed five earned runs (in 4.2 IP) for the second straight game in a 9-6 Rockies loss to Atlanta on July 21. He owns a 6.43 ERA over his past five outings (28 innings). But he's had two outstanding starts versus the Dodgers this season. In a 6-5 win on June 10, he pitched eight innings and gave up three hits and no earned runs with nine strikeouts. In a 3-0 victory over L.A. on April 5, he threw seven shutout innings and allowed only five hits. Chacin is 5-3 with a stellar 2.04 ERA in eight career starts (nine appearances) against the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw (11-4, 2.72 ERA, 145.2 IP) is aiming for his fourth straight victory on Tuesday. Kershaw is 5-1 in his past six starts and has gone at least six innings in each of those games. The left-hander has not given up a run in his past three outings (23 innings) and owns a 29-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span. Kershaw has faced the Rockies twice in 2011, and owns a no-decision and a loss against them with both starts coming at Coors Field. On June 9, he allowed six runs in six innings, and previously on April 5, he gave up three runs in six innings in a 3-0 loss. He is 5-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 15 career starts against Colorado, but has been brilliant at home this season (7-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 starts).

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 - 10:10 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
COL: 2-6 (-4.15 Units) when Aaron Cook starts
LAD: 7-13 (+-8.00 Units) when Hiroki Kuroda starts
After an 0-5 start to his season, Aaron Cook (1-5, 5.84 ERA, 44.2 IP) picked up his first win in eight starts on July 22 versus Arizona, 8-4. In six innings, he gave up four runs and eight hits. The right-hander is 6-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 career starts (22 appearances) against the Dodgers, and is just 1-2 with a 7.66 ERA in four road starts this season.
Hiroki Kuroda (6-12, 3.19 ERA, 127 IP) has pitched pretty well despite his win-loss mark this season. He will be looking to end a three-game losing skid in the finale of the series on Wednesday. The right-hander has surrendered three runs or less in 15 of his 20 starts, including his most recent outing, a 7-2 loss to Washington on July 22, in which he gave up seven hits and three runs in 6.1 innings. But his career numbers against Colorado have not been pretty. In eight starts against the Rockies, he's 0-4 with a 6.36 ERA.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 07:36 PM

Yesterday's Results:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/25/11 12-*7-*1 63.16% +*4220 Detail

Tuesday, July 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle +269 500
NY Yankees - Over 8 500

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +127 500
Cleveland - Under 7 500

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Florida +119 500
Washington - Over 7 500

San Francisco - 7:05 PM ET San Francisco +108 500
Philadelphia - Over 8 500

Baltimore - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -171 500
Toronto - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Boston -164 500
Boston - Over 10 500

Pittsburgh 0 Bot 0 Pittsburgh +166 500
Atlanta 0 Over 6.5 500

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +132 500
Cincinnati - Over 8 500

Minnesota - 8:05 PM ET Minnesota +199 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Detroit -152 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +136 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

Houston - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -172 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

Tampa Bay - 10:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -128 500
Oakland - Over 6.5 500

Arizona - 10:05 PM ET Arizona +104 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Colorado - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -151 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6 500

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2011, 07:44 PM

7:00 PM ETSan Antonio at Washington
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

SA 601 9-5 (5-2 V) - 154 ( OVER )
WAS 602 3-11 (1-5 H) - 5.5 ( Wash - 5.5 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts
8:00 PM ETAtlanta at Tulsa
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

ATL 607 6-9 (2-4 V) - 157.5 ( OVER )
TUL 608 1-14 (1-6 H) - 8 ( ATL - 8 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts
8:00 PM ETLos Angeles at Minnesota
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

LA 605 6-8 (2-6 V) - 159.5 ( OVER )
MIN 606 10-4 (5-2 H) - -9 ( MINN - 9 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts
8:00 PM ETConnecticut at Chicago
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

CONN 603 9-5 (2-5 V) - 151 ( UNDER )
CHI 604 8-9 (7-2 H) - -4 ( UCONN + 4 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts
10:00 PM ETSeattle at Phoenix
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
SEA 609 8-7 (2-6 V) - 167.5 ( UNDER )
PHO 610 10-5 (5-2 H) - -8 ( SEATTLE + 8 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts

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