Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2011, 08:48 PM

Pirates begin key 7-game road trip Monday in Atlanta

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (52-47, +15.5 Units)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (59-43, +7.4 Units)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -180, Pittsburgh +170, Total: 7

Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Pittsburgh Total Runs: 3 – Over (EVEN), Under (-130)
Atlanta Total Runs: 4 – Over (-115), Under (-115)
Team to Score First: Pittsburgh (EVEN), Atlanta (-120)
Will There be a 1st-Inning Run? Yes +130, No -160

The Pirates start a rough seven-game road trip on Monday night when they visit Atlanta for the start of a four-game series before finishing the week in Philadelphia. The Braves offense was sporadic during their just-completed 3-4 road trip, as they scored three runs or less in the four losses, but tallied at least six runs in the three victories.

Although the pitching matchup of James McDonald versus Tim Hudson favors Atlanta, this game could come down to the bullpens, and both teams have had great relief work this year. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a 3.03 ERA and 30 saves, while Atlanta’s relievers have a 3.09 ERA (2.29 at home) and 35 saves. These two clubs also have similar offenses in this matchup, as Pittsburgh is hitting .252 with 4.3 runs per game on the road and Atlanta has identical numbers of .252 BA and 4.3 RPG at home this year. With so many similar factors, the pick here is PITTSBURGH at very favorable +170 odds.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the Pirates.

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.3 runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games. (100-83 over the last 5 seasons.) (54.6%, +57.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Like most opponents recently, Atlanta has had the upper hand in head-to-head contests with the Pirates. The Braves are 9-4 in the past 13 home meetings, and also won both meetings in Pittsburgh in May. But the Pirates have been a strong road team this year, going 26-22 (+13.4 Units) and outscoring opponents by an average score of 4.3 to 4.0.

Pirates starter James McDonald (6-4, 4.15 ERA) has pitched very well recently. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 straight starts, going 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA over this span, and leading his team to an 8-3 record. His 18 strikeouts and 28 ground-ball outs (compared to 23 fly-ball outs) over his past three starts are encouraging signs for future success. He has also stood tall in his career against Atlanta, posting a 1.06 ERA and .190 opponents’ BA in 17 innings against Braves hitting.

Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.39 ERA) has also been on a hot streak for Atlanta with eight straight starts of allowing three runs or less. He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over this span. Hudson has also been great at home, going 6-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts at Turner Field. Current Pirates are only batting .208 in their careers versus Hudson (11-for-53), but no Pittsburgh batter has more than 10 lifetime at-bats against the 36-year-old right-hander.

Both teams are pretty quiet on the injury front, as Atlanta expects to have two players return to action Monday. 3B Chipper Jones, who has been out since July 8 with a torn meniscus, is expected to be activated from the DL, while OF Jordan Schafer, who hasn’t played since last Wednesday because of a jammed finger, is also expected to suit up Monday. Pirates outfielder Alex Presley (left hand contusion) was placed on the 15-day DL on Monday afternoon.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2011, 08:48 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Colorado at L.A. Dodgers

COLORADO ROCKIES (48-54, -19.4 Units)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (45-56, -14.9 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Los Angeles -150, Colorado +120

NL West rivals Colorado and Los Angeles open a three-game series on Monday night at Dodger Stadium. Neither team is playing very well heading into this week's series. The Rockies dropped their weekend series at Arizona, including losing the last two games by a combined score of 19-3. It was their sixth setback in nine games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just 3-5 in their past eight games, but did manage to take two of three from Washington at home.

Colorado is just 22-28 on the road, while L.A. is 25-28 at home. But the Dodgers, who will likely be favored in all three games, are 28-26 as a favorite this season, while the Rockies are a dismal 8-20 as an underdog. With the Dodgers having a huge edge in head-to-head meetings with the Rockies in the past three seasons (29-16, +16.9 Units), including 14-7 at Dodger Stadium, the pick here is for LOS ANGELES to win the series.

These two FoxSheets trends also like the Dodgers to take this series.

L.A. DODGERS are 113-57 (66.5%, +40.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was L.A. DODGERS 5.1, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

COLORADO is 10-24 (29.4%, -17.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 25 - 10:10 ET
Monday line: Los Angeles -115, Colorado +105, Total: 7
COL: 7-3 (+4.10 Units) when Juan Nicasio starts
LAD: 3-5 (-0.98 Units) when Rubby De La Rosa starts
Juan Nicasio (4-2, 3.88 ERA, 58.9 IP) looks for his third straight quality start when he takes the mound in the opener. The right-hander has allowed just one run on nine hits in his past two starts (14 innings). He threw seven innings and surrendered just one run, but got a no-decision in Colorado's 3-2 win over Atlanta on July 20. Nicasio has faced the Dodgers once, pitching five innings and giving up four runs in a 9-7 Rockies win on June 9 at Coors Field. He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four road starts this season.
Rubby De La Rosa (3-4, 3.73 ERA, 50.2 IP) will attempt to snap a four-game losing streak. De La Rosa has gotten a no-decision in each of his past two outings. He allowed three runs (two earned) and nine hits in five innings in a 5-3 L.A. loss to San Francisco on July 19. But he has pitched at least five innings in five straight starts and has surrendered three earned runs or less in four of those contests. The right-hander is 1-0 versus the Rockies this season after allowing three earned runs in five innings on June 12, a 10-8 Dodgers victory. He also pitched two innings in relief against Colorado on May 31, and gave up one hit and no earned runs. But he's only 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in four home starts (six appearances) this season.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 - 10:10 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
COL: 10-10 (-3.50 Units) when Jhoulys Chacin starts
LAD: 13-8 (+3.35 Units) when Clayton Kershaw starts
Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 3.60 ERA, 127.2 IP) is coming off consecutive no-decisions, and has lost three straight prior to those outings. Chacin allowed five earned runs (in 4.2 IP) for the second straight game in a 9-6 Rockies loss to Atlanta on July 21. He owns a 6.43 ERA over his past five outings (28 innings). But he's had two outstanding starts versus the Dodgers this season. In a 6-5 win on June 10, he pitched eight innings and gave up three hits and no earned runs with nine strikeouts. In a 3-0 victory over L.A. on April 5, he threw seven shutout innings and allowed only five hits. Chacin is 5-3 with a stellar 2.04 ERA in eight career starts (nine appearances) against the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw (11-4, 2.72 ERA, 145.2 IP) is aiming for his fourth straight victory on Tuesday. Kershaw is 5-1 in his past six starts and has gone at least six innings in each of those games. The left-hander has not given up a run in his past three outings (23 innings) and owns a 29-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span. Kershaw has faced the Rockies twice in 2011, and owns a no-decision and a loss against them with both starts coming at Coors Field. On June 9, he allowed six runs in six innings, and previously on April 5, he gave up three runs in six innings in a 3-0 loss. He is 5-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 15 career starts against Colorado, but has been brilliant at home this season (7-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 starts).

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 - 10:10 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
COL: 2-6 (-4.15 Units) when Aaron Cook starts
LAD: 7-13 (+-8.00 Units) when Hiroki Kuroda starts
After an 0-5 start to his season, Aaron Cook (1-5, 5.84 ERA, 44.2 IP) picked up his first win in eight starts on July 22 versus Arizona, 8-4. In six innings, he gave up four runs and eight hits. The right-hander is 6-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 career starts (22 appearances) against the Dodgers, and is just 1-2 with a 7.66 ERA in four road starts this season.
Hiroki Kuroda (6-12, 3.19 ERA, 127 IP) has pitched pretty well despite his win-loss mark this season. He will be looking to end a three-game losing skid in the finale of the series on Wednesday. The right-hander has surrendered three runs or less in 15 of his 20 starts, including his most recent outing, a 7-2 loss to Washington on July 22, in which he gave up seven hits and three runs in 6.1 innings. But his career numbers against Colorado have not been pretty. In eight starts against the Rockies, he's 0-4 with a 6.36 ERA.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2011, 08:49 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Seattle at N.Y. Yankees

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-58, -14.8 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (59-40, +6.0 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -360, Seattle +280

It’s never a good time to play a team that has the third-best winning percentage in baseball (.596) like the 59-40 New York Yankees. When you’re the Seattle Mariners, and you’ve lost a franchise record 15 straight games, it’s not a good time to play anybody. The Bad News Bears would be a formidable opponent for Eric Wedge’s 43-58 team. Wedge, desperate for a change in karma, cut off his mustache before Sunday’s game. Late into the game, the closest the Mariners came to being inspired by their manager was when a late grand slam by Brendan Ryan cut into the Red Sox lead the way Wedge cut into his lip hairs. Wedge took out all of the mustache, his team, down eight at the time, could not take out all of the lead as the BoSox defeated them, 12-8. "This is definitely frustrating," Ryan said. "There aren't too many laughs now. There shouldn't be."

The Yankees enter the three-game set coming off of a series victory over the Oakland Athletics, doing it with an explosive offense, which generated 27 runs and 35 hits over the three games. The pick here is for heavily-favored NEW YORK to win the series from the struggling Mariners.

These FoxSheets back up the Yankees with these highly-rated trends.

Play Against - Any team (SEATTLE) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more. (50-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +32.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL). (176-56 since 1997.) (75.9%, +81.6 units. Rating = 3*).

While the Mariners enjoyed some success earlier this season against the Bronx Bombers, taking two of three from New York, they have struggled recently at Yankee Stadium, dropping 13 of the past 17 visits. Since June 10, the M’s have been dreadful on the road, losing 11 straight contests. That is in stark contrast to the Yankees who are 15-4 at home during that same timeframe.

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 25 - 7:05 ET
Monday line: New York -210, Seattle +190, Total: 9
SEA: 9-11 (+0.05 Units) when Jason Vargas starts
NYY: 9-8 (-0.75 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
Garcia enters the game sporting a stellar 3.16 ERA. He has won three of his past five outings, and is coming off of one of his better showings this season, a 4-0 victory over Tampa Bay in which he pitched 6.2 innings of shutout baseball, striking out seven and walking none. Vargas lost to the Yanks in May. He drew the short straw and had to pitch against CC Sabathia, but his bigger problem was his statline. When the number of hits allowed (5), runs allowed (6) and BB (4) is bigger than the number of innings pitched (3), you’re probably taking the loss, which he did, 7-1 on May 29. He hopes Monday will be a different story.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 - 7:05 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
SEA: 5-15 (-9.05 Units) when Doug Fister starts
NYY: 16-6 (+6.85 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
Maybe Doug Fister will come out Tuesday and pitch like he’s the 14-game winner and perennial Cy Young candidate. Maybe Sabathia will become very human and look like a guy who is 3-11 on the year. Maybe pigs will fly. If you don’t believe in pitchers switching bodies, or bodies of work, the Yankees would appear to have the distinct advantage in this matchup. Sabathia defeated Seattle in May when he went eight innings and basically made just one mistake, a solo HR in the sixth inning to Justin Smoak. Sabathia has been borderline unconscious of late, winning seven of his past eight outings. The only loss came in his last start, a 2-1 defeat against Tampa Bay’s James Shields, a pitchers’ duel in the truest sense of the word. On May 30, Fister went 7.1 innings against the Orioles, allowing three runs and earning the win. That was the last time that Fister made his way into the win column this year. He has lost six games and had another three no-decisions in that stretch.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 - 1:05 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
SEA: 11-11 (-2.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
NYY: 3-3 (-0.70 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
If Phil Hughes is to assure the Yankees brass that he is back and at full strength since missing half of April and all of May and June with arm trouble, he will get the ultimate measuring stick when he is scheduled to start opposite “King” Felix Hernandez in a matinee affair on Wednesday. Considering the bottom-of-the-basement offense that the Mariners put on the field every day, the fact that Hernandez is 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA is a minor miracle. Nonetheless, he is human, evidenced by his last start when he allowed six runs and 11 hits over 6.1 innings as he was on the short end of a 7-4 loss to the Boston Red Sox. Hughes is looking to greatly improve on his last outing, when his team’s 17-run explosion was almost enough to overshadow the fact that he allowed seven runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings. Not exactly a quality start. Seattle enters this series with the worst hitting and lowest-scoring offense in baseball. New York enters a ridiculous 29-6 (83%, +21.2 Units) in day games this year. If Hughes struggles against this team like he did last Friday, expect fan hysteria in the Bronx to go into hyper mode with the trade deadline fast approaching.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2011, 08:49 PM

Boston seeks 10th straight home win Monday night

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (42-59, -11.1 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (62-37, +9.5 Units)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -285, Kansas City +245, Total: 9

Sportsbook.com Prop Bets:
Kansas City Total Runs: 3.5 – Over (EVEN), Under (-130)
Boston Total Runs: 5.5 – Over (EVEN), Under (-120)
Team to Score First: Kansas City (+115), Boston (-135)
Will There be a 1st-Inning Run? Yes -125, No -105

The sizzling Red Sox look for their fifth straight win (and eighth victory in nine games), when they open a four-game series with the Royals on Monday night. Kansas City has also been playing well, as its four-game win streak was snapped Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Boston is 16-3 in the month of July with a team batting average of .296 and a ridiculous .512 slugging percentage, thanks to 81 extra-base hits. The Sox have not lost a home game since July 4, reeling off nine straight victories at Fenway Park. That doesn’t bode well for K.C. starter Kyle Davies who has a 9.35 ERA on the road this season and whose team is 2-10 when he starts this year. Although it is a heavy price to pay, BOSTON is certainly the pick on Monday night.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends supporting the Red Sox.

TERRY FRANCONA is 67-20 (77.0%, +37.2 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .333 or better over a 3-game span as the manager of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (KANSAS CITY) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (92-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.7%, +40.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The Red Sox are 52-33 (61%) as favorites this year, including 7-1 (+5.0 Units) when the money line is -200 or more. They are also 41-25 (62%) versus right-handed starters and 31-17 (65%) in all home games. The Royals are 9-18 (-8.5 Units) against lefty starters and a pitiful 14-30 (32%, -9.1 Units) on the road this season.

Kansas City starter Kyle Davies (1-9, 7.32 ERA) only has one quality road start this season in six tries. Home teams are batting .379 against him with 44 hits and 11 walks in 26 innings (2.12 WHIP). He actually had a decent start his last time out on July 18, as he only allowed two earned runs and struck out nine White Sox in 5.1 innings. He has never lost to Boston in three career starts, but in two outings versus the Red Sox last year, he allowed eight runs in 11 innings (6.55 ERA).

Boston sends lefty Jon Lester (10-4, 3.31 ERA) to the mound. He will be making his first start since July 5 due to a strained muscle in his shoulder. Lester hasn’t had a bad outing since June began, as he is 3-2 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 36 K in 39 innings over his past six starts. Since losing to K.C. back on August 8, 2006, Lester has absolutely owned the Royals. In three starts against them, he has allowed just one run and eight hits in 24 innings! That equates to a 0.38 ERA and .103 opponents’ BA (8-for-78).

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment