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[StarDust Bum]

Streaking Red Sox Host Sinking Mariners

The Boston Red Sox have the best record in the American League and will likely hold that distinction through the weekend due to playing a club that has dropped 13 consecutive games following a 7-4 victory at Fenway Park in the series opener. Sunday’s first pitch is scheduled for 10:35 a.m. (PT) and will be seen nationally on TBS.

Boston continues to play solid baseball in leading the majors with a 14-3 record in July and has garnered an impressive 29-17 mark at home. The Red Sox hold a major advantage in this matchup by scoring 6.02 runs per game at home this season compared to a the Mariners plating just 3.37 runs on the road.

Daytime baseball has been a profitable experience for the club, posting a 23-8 mark under the sun, including wins in 16 of its last 19 day games. Over the recent 19-game span, Boston has outscored opponents by a significant 146-67 margin.

Tim Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) draws the starting assignment in the series finale, as the squad has tallied victories in his last three outings. The offense has picked up the 44-year-old knuckleballer, scoring 28 runs over that span, as he’s allowed 15 runs (11 earned) and 29 hits in 17 frames.

Wakefield has been a solid option during 10 home appearances (six starts), posting a 3-1 mark and 4.63 ERA, as opponents are hitting .247 against him.

He hasn’t enjoyed much career success against the Mariners in 28 outings (18 starts), entering with a losing 4-10 record and 4.08 ERA, but came away with a solid effort in gaining a no-decision against them at today’s venue on May 1. He gave up just a single run and three hits over 5 2/3 frames in a Red Sox 3-2 victory.

Bettors will definitely take note that the Red Sox are 2-9 in his last 11 starts versus today’s opponent.

Seattle has fallen off a cliff and has tallied a 4-14 record this month, which includes a losing streak that could tie the longest in franchise history with a loss Saturday. Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki has done little to help the club offensively, batting .200 during the skid.

The Mariners will need to rely on a starting rotation that ranks second in the American League with a 3.35 ERA, as the unit has been unable to gain much run support. The offense has produced a league-worst 3.18 runs per game.

Rookie Michael Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) has been part of that group for the entire year, but his numbers are starting to drop off significantly. He has allowed 12 runs and 13 hits over his last 11 1/3 innings. Over that two-game span, his ERA has jumped from 2.58 to 3.24.

Pineda will be making his fourth straight start away from pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, coming in with an even 4-4 mark and 3.86 ERA in 11 road starts. He will be making his first career appearance versus the Red Sox this afternoon.

Home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg could serve as a major handicapping angle to back the underdog, as the road team is 13-7 in his games behind the dish this season. Boston has also dropped five consecutive home games with him calling balls and strikes.

Weather forecasts are calling for sunny skies and game-time temperatures in the low-80s. The wind is expected to be out of the north at 5-10 mph (in from left).

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals, Pirates Finish Important NL Central Series

The Pittsburgh Pirates have enjoyed battling for the National League Central title and would like to stay in the playoff race deep into September in hopes of making it back to the postseason for the first time since 1992. However, winning games like Sunday’s series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals are crucial to proving they belong among the top contenders in the division.

Game time is scheduled for 10:35 a.m. (PT). The home team figures to have an advantage behind the plate with John Hirschbeck serving as the umpire. The host is 13-3 when Hirschbeck is the ump with the ‘over’ going 8-1 in games that have a total posted at 8 or less. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in his games when the total is 8.5 or higher.

The Pirates dropped the series opener to St. Louis 6-4 on Friday, and the teams will meet 10 more times over the last two months of the regular season. The Cardinals had dropped two of the first three meetings at home back in April, but they put four runs on the board in the first inning of the opener on a pair of two-run home runs by Albert Pujols and David Freese.

Pittsburgh rallied to pull within 5-4 with two runs in the bottom of the sixth inning on a two-run single by Garrett Jones, although Yadier Molina had the final word for St. Louis with a solo shot in the top of the eighth to round out the scoring. The starting pitchers combined to give up nine of the 10 runs on 20 hits in 14 combined innings between them, and each team hopes to get a better performance on Sunday.

Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse has been nursing a middle finger injury that might be the cause of a brutal July so far. Lohse (8-7, 3.45 ERA) was cleared to start by physicians after going 0-3 this month with a 7.64 ERA. He was favored in his last two outings but was an underdog in the previous five.

Lohse has managed to pitch into the seventh inning just twice in his past nine starts and lost both times, earning only two wins during that stretch. The crafty veteran has pitched better on the road this season though with a 6-3 record and 3.12 ERA in 11 starts, and he is 5-2 lifetime against the Pirates with a 3.59 ERA.

Pittsburgh’s Charlie Morton (8-5, 3.62 ERA) has not pitched well at home or against St. Louis during his career, which does not bode well for his team. He is 3-4 in nine starts at PNC Park with a 4.24 ERA and 2-3 lifetime against the Cardinals with a 6.43 ERA.

Morton is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, allowing only three hits in five scoreless innings en route to a 2-0 win. The total went ‘under’ in that game after going ‘over’ in six of his previous seven trips to the mound for the Pirates.

Sunday’s high temperature in Pittsburgh is expected to reach 86 degrees, although there is a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms moving through the area.

[StarDust Bum]

Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds Finish Series On ESPN

Two NL teams with vastly different playoff fortunes, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds, finish a 3-game series Sunday night on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

First pitch from Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark will be at 5:05 p.m. (PT).

Atlanta (59-41) is four games behind Philly in the NL East, but leads the wild-card by six. The Braves took the first game of this series on Friday (6-4) with Dan Uggla getting a pinch-hit homer in the ninth.

Saturday’s late afternoon game is still pending. Cincy was a 125 favorite with Homer Bailey opposing Derek Lowe.

Rookie Brandon Beachy (3-2, 3.75 ERA) will make his 14th start for Atlanta. He’s coming off the worst outing of the year last Tuesday, six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings at Colorado (12-3 loss). He allowed two homers, a continual problem with 11 in 13 starts.

The 24-year-old right-hander did pitch well (2.74 ERA) in his prior four outings after over a month on the DL (oblique). However, Atlanta has lost his last three starts.

Beachy has a surprise strikeout rate (10.13), mostly due to command and movement. This is his first career start against Cincinnati with his road ERA (3.12) better than at home (4.34 ERA). He had five quality road starts (1.80 ERA) before the Colorado debacle.

The Reds (48-51) are only five games out of the weak NL Central, but sit in fourth place behind Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. They need to get hot quick, but are just 3-4 since the All-Star break and 6-11 in July.

Cincinnati’s once potent offense has struggled all July (3.47 runs per game) and the ‘under’ is 5-1 in its last six.

Dontrelle Willis (0-1, 3.38 ERA) will pitch for Cincinnati. The two-time All-Star (2003, 2005) is trying to come back from the dead and revive his career. He hasn’t posted a below 5.00 ERA since 2006, with control being his biggest problem.

The still young, 29-year-old lefty started the year at Triple-A Louisville, going 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He struck out 67 in 75 1/3 innings and more importantly walked just 20 batters.

Willis has made two starts since being called up in July. He allowed two earned runs over six innings at Milwaukee and two more over 4 2/3 innings at Pittsburgh last Monday. He struck out nine and walked five over the 10 2/3 innings, although the Reds lost both games.

Willis will pitch for the first time at home for Cincinnati. He was much more successful at home the last two years with Detroit and Arizona, posting a 4.81 ERA compared to 7.59 away.

Willis did face Atlanta last June while with Arizona, walking six over four innings and surrendering two earned runs.

The Braves have won the last three games against the Reds this year after dropping the opener. However, they’re just 5-11 in their last 16 games in Cincy overall.

Atlanta is 29-22 away this year (+6.8 units) and split four games at Colorado before this series. Cincinnati is barely above .500 (25-23) at home for -6.6 units.

The ‘over’ is 6-1-1 in Braves’ games since the break. Their offense has been hot during that span at 6.13 runs per game.

Cincinnati is strangely 10-1 in its last 11 Game 3’s of a series.

Cincinnati outfielder Jay Bruce (dizzy spells) missed Friday, but was expected back Saturday. Atlanta’s Chipper Jones (knee) is eligible to come off the DL for this game, but still needs to make some rehab starts.

Lance Barksdale will call balls and strikes. The home team is 42-20 in his last 62 games behind home plate.

Weather will have scattered thunderstorms and be in the 80s despite the night start. Atlanta returns home Monday to face Pittsburgh, while Cincinnati stays home against the Mets.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Tip Sheet

July 24, 2011


Atlanta Braves (-118 & 9) at Cincinnati Reds - 8:05 pm (EDT)
It’s been a long a bumpy road back to the majors for 29-year-old left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis, but after 13 successful starts this year at Triple-A Indianapolis, the Cincinnati Reds are hoping Willis can re-create some of his magic from his Florida Marlins days. Willis will take the mound Sunday against the Atlanta Braves with hopes of injecting some life into the defending, but fading, division champs.

Most of us have a hard time even thinking about backing Willis in any situation because of the sour note he left in our wallets the last five years, but it could be different this time around based on his improved conditioning, velocity and control. Willis was essentially ’walked’ out of the game because he couldn’t throw strikes with confidence causing him to nibble at the plate which led to all the walks. It also didn’t help that he was overweight with no stamina.

However, he impressed quite a few people everywhere with his minor league performances sporting a 2.63 ERA and an impressive 3.35 K/BB ratio. Although the feat was accomplished in the minors, the K/BB ratio is still better than any of his eight major league seasons, including his dominant 2005 season where he was 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA.

The Reds have lost his first two starts, but he wasn’t all that bad, allowing only two runs in each of the losses. His last start at Pittsburgh was a great indicator of what we may see from the new and improved Willis as he allowed only one walk while fanning five.

On the other side of the field we’ve got the Braves coming in with 24-year-old right-hander Brandon Beachy (3-2, 3.75 EA) who has hit the skids recently after a productive start to the 2011 campaign. In Tuesday’s 12-3 loss at Colorado, Beachy gave up the most runs (6) ever during his short 16 game career. We might be able to pass it off as just one of those things that happens to the best of all pitchers in the thin air, but it was also the third straight game he started that the Braves lost. From April through June, the Braves had a 6-4 record with Beachy.

Each of the club’s starters are likely to only go a maximum of six innings if having a good outing, but they will set the tone. At the moment, the way the Braves are hitting, it appears to be a much more difficult task at hand for Willis. The Braves bats have collectively got hot at the same time since the All-Star break. Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward have become a force nightly while still getting the consistent hitting from Martin Prado and Brian McCann.

Although Dan Uggla has a calf strain that could limit his play, he has also come up big and is almost batting .200 now (.196). He’s in the midst of a 14-game hitting streak and has six home runs over that span, including a pinch-hit game winning two-run shot in the ninth inning on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Reds are slumping. They’ve scored three runs or less in five of their first seven games, before erupting for 11 runs on Saturday. Over that span since the All-Star break, they were shutout on consecutive days by the Pirates. Dusty Baker has been shuffling the lineup around trying to find the right mix hoping to stir something up. He’s got Scott Rolen on the disabled list, Drew Stubbs continues to strike out at a record pace and Jay Bruce is M.I.A. What Baker did find out on Saturday was that it took a veteran like Edgar Renteria to be the spark.

It’s a tough sell going with the Reds tonight, but if everything we’ve seen from the new and improved Willis gets them through six solid innings and Beachy continues his downward swing, the Reds might be able to steal one here. Because of the way the Reds are hitting, if you find yourself liking that side, the UNDER might be a nice correlated play as well.

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-200 & 9.5) - 8:05 pm (EDT)

After Alexi Ogando (10-3, 2.72 ERA) started the season 7-0 and then lost three consecutive starts in late June, it was thought by many baseball observers that the first-year starter may have hit the brick wall. In those defeats, Ogando had given up 15 runs in only 9.2 innings of work. In his previous 12 starts, he had given up only 17 runs total.

His next start against the Marlins on July 1 saw a gigantic movement on the money-line going against him because of his recent form, but somehow he returned to being the same dominant pitcher he was for those first 12 starts allowing only two runs and striking out eight. He continued his excellence in his next start against the Orioles and then put in one of his best efforts of the season in his last outing throwing eight innings of shutout ball in a 7-0 win at Anaheim.

Needless to say, Ogando is definitely dialed in right now.

What’s been great for the casual bettor that likes to take big favorites on the run-line is that the combination of Texas bats and Ogando’s arm have been great bets to win by two or more runs. If Texas wins a game Ogando’s starting, they have won the game by two or more runs in nine of those 12 games, including his last five.

Since July 4, the Rangers been putting nightly beat downs on the underprivileged, waxing the Orioles, A‘s and Mariners for an 11 game winning streak, 10 of them by two-runs or more. They ran into the feisty Angels and lost two of three, but despite getting shutout by Jered Weaver they still managed to put up 15 runs in the 3-game series.

The Texas massacre continued Friday night against the Blue Jays where every batter took part in the public beating in a 12-2 win.

The sacrificial lamb in Sunday’s match for Toronto is Brett Cecil (2-4, 5.59 ERA) who makes his fifth start since a two-month stint at Triple-A Las Vegas. In his four starts since coming back, Cecil has had two good outings and two rough ones, including his last start against the lowly Mariners -- a game Toronto eventually won -- where he gave up five runs including two Mariner home runs.

However, as it stands, the Blue Jays are 2-2 with Cecil on the mound and the coaching staff must have confidence in him because they’ve let him go well over the 100 pitch count in each of those four starts.

If looking to side with the Blue Jays, you at least know you’ve got a big price with a team full of big bats. They can sock it to anyone on any given day, including an ace like Ogando. The correlation for both teams in this game would be to go OVER the total.

[Udog]

Good morning!

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Sunday

July 23, 2011



NATIONAL LEAGUE


N.Y. Mets at Florida - 1:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gee (9-3, 3.67 ERA) 4-7 L11 OVER 7-2 L9 away during day
Sanchez (6-3, 3.52 ERA) 8-4 L12 1-4 L5 home during day

Mets beat Marlins, 7-6 on Friday
Marlins beat Mets, 8-5 on Saturday

San Diego at Philadelphia - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stauffer (6-6, 2.83 ERA) 4-6 L10 1-5 L6 on Sundays
Halladay (11-4, 2.57 ERA) 8-3 L11 6-1 L7 home Game 3's

Phillies beat Padres, 3-1 on Friday
Phillies beat Padres, 8-6 on Saturday

St. Louis at Pittsburgh - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lohse (8-7, 3.45 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 5-1 L6 away during day
Morton (8-5, 3.62 ERA) 6-4 L10 2-6 home on Sundays

Cardinals beat Pirates, 6-4 on Friday
Cardinals beat Pirates, 9-1 on Saturday

Houston at Chicago - 2:20 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lyles (0-5, 4.55 ERA) 3-8 L11 4-14 away during day
Garza (4-7, 3.80 ERA) 4-7 L11 2-5 home on Sundays

Cubs beat Astros, 4-2 on Friday
Cubs beat Astros, 5-1 on Saturday

Milwaukee at San Francisco - 4:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gallardo (11-6, 3.96 ERA) 5-1 L6 2-5 away on Sundays
Bumgarner (5-9, 3.72 ERA) 7-3 L10 6-2 L8 home Game 3's

Brewers beat Giants, 4-2 on Friday
Giants beat Brewers, 4-2 on Saturday

Colorado at Arizona - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Jimenez (6-8, 4.00 ERA) 6-4 L10 2-9 away Game 3's
Owings (3-0, 2.76 ERA) 5-5 L10 5-2 home on Sundays

Rockies beat Diamondbacks, 8-4 on Friday
Diamondbacks beat Rockies, 12-3 on Saturday

Washington at Los Angeles - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Marquis (8-4, 3.92 ERA) 3-7 L10 2-10 L12 away Game 3's
Billingsley (8-8, 4.07 ERA) 6-4 L10 6-2 home on Sundays

Nationals beat Dodgers, 7-2 on Friday
Dodgers beat Nationals, 7-6 on Saturday

Atlanta at Cincinnati - 8:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Beachy (3-2, 3.75 ERA) 5-5 L10 1-4 L5 away on Sundays
Willis (0-1, 3.38 ERA) 4-7 L11 7-3 L10 home Game 3's

Braves beat Reds, 6-4 on Friday
Reds beat Braves, 11-2 on Saturday


AMERICAN LEAGUE


Oakland at N.Y. Yankees - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gonzalez (9-6, 2.33 ERA) 4-2 L6 1-6 L7 away during day
Colon (6-6, 3.34 ERA) 4-1 L5 16-2 home during day

Yankees beat Athletics, 17-7 on Friday
Athletics beat Yankees, 4-3 on Saturday

Chicago at Cleveland - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/2)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Jackson (6-7, 3.97 ERA) 4-6 L10 3-6 L9 away Game 3's
Masterson (8-6, 2.64 ERA) 4-6 L10 5-2 home on Sundays

White Sox beat Indians, 3-0 on Friday
Game postponed on Saturday due to rain

Los Angeles at Baltimore - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chatwood (5-6, 3.71 ERA) 7-4 L11 OVER 6-2 away on Sundays
Guthrie (4-13, 4.35 ERA) 4-8 L12 OVER 6-2 L8 home Game 3's

Angels beat Orioles, 6-1 on Friday
Orioles beat Angels, 3-2 on Saturday

Seattle at Boston - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) 0-14 L14 1-5 L6 away Game 3's
Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) 9-2 L11 8-0 home on Sundays

Red Sox beat Mariners, 7-4 on Friday
Red Sox beat Mariners, 3-1 on Saturday

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - 2:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cobb (2-0, 3.09 ERA) 2-8 L10 10-2 away Game 3's
Paulino (1-7, 4.39 ERA) 5-5 L10 5-3 L8 home Game 3's

Royals beat Rays, 10-4 on Friday
Royals beat Rays, 5-4 on Saturday

Detroit at Minnesota - 4:10 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Porcello (9-6, 4.76 ERA) 6-4 L10 11-2 L13 away vs LHP
Liriano (6-7, 4.56 ERA) 6-3 L9 5-2 L7 home on Sundays

Tigers beat Twins, 6-2 on Thursday
Tigers beat Twins, 8-2 on Friday
Twins beat Tigers, 4-1 on Saturday

Toronto at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cecil (2-4, 5.59 ERA) 7-3 L10 OVER 5-1 L6 away vs RHP
Ogando (10-3, 2.72 ERA) 13-2 L15 12-3 home vs LHP

Rangers beat Blue Jays, 12-2 on Friday
Rangers beat Blue Jays, 5-4 on Saturday

[StarDust Bum]

NL Forecast

July 23, 2011


American League Forecast
As we head towards the final two-month stretch of the 2011 baseball season, it’s hard to make a case against the Phillies, Braves or Giants making the playoffs while the National League Central is wide open. It’s amazing that the east and west divisions have been in a virtual cruise control the entire season. Is it possible that we may see some other teams make a run in those divisions, or will they roll into October the same way?

Let’s take a look at how the National League may shape along with what the updated odds are to win the pennant from the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

National League East

The Philadelphia Phillies (11/10) currently have a four-game lead on the Braves and a 12 ½-game led on the Mets. It would be considered a gigantic collapse if the Phillies didn’t continue their pace, almost to the depths of the ’64 Phillies breakdown. They are the favorites to win not only the pennant, but the World Series (5/2) as well.

It’s been all about pitching for the Phillies while their once potent lineup has tailed off quite a bit from recent years. You also have to consider luck being involved as well. How else do you explain using three different closers due to injury and having them all be affective. When one of the big four starters, Roy Oswalt (4-6) went on the disabled list twice, the Phillies actually performed better with his replacement, Vance Worley (6-1), who the Phillies have gone 8-2 with on the mound.

It’s apparent that it doesn’t matter how well they hit because their pitching bails them out nightly. I can’t remember the last time I saw a team favored to win the World Series that didn’t have one hitter batting over .300 at the midpoint of a season. Ryan Howard (18 HR’s, 74 RBI’s) is still plugging away daily as the rock of the lineup, but his .247 average is the worst of any of his big league seasons.

What we may see in the next two months is Chase Utley (.270) getting back into proper form, which would make the Phillies even more formidable. Their World Series winning move may be to get another bat in the outfield and that could be Carlos Beltran.

The one negative to the team could be where to fit the newly activated Brad Lidge in the bullpen. He will be eased back into the game in non-pressure situations, but his fastball was only clocked in the high 80’s during his rehab assignments when he’s always been a mid-90’s guy. Because of all Lidge has done for the Phillies, manager Charlie Manuel may be reluctant to be totally honest with himself and keep Lidge on the roster which could lead to a few losses.

The Atlanta Braves (4/1) are leading the wild card race and getting things done with almost the same recipe as the Phillies. They do have one hitter, Brian McCann (.310, 53 RBI’s), hitting over .300, but their success has been all about their pitching. Between Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.26 ERA), Tommy Hanson (11-5, 3.06 ERA) and Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.39 ERA), they present a tough challenge for any team.

Just when teams think they’re out of the woods when the starters leave the game, then the young bullpen takes over. Jonny Venters (21 Holds, 1.37 ERA) and Eric O’Flaherty (19 Holds, 0.99 ERA) handle the seventh or eighth inning, and then Craig Kimbrel (30 SV’s, 2.20 ERA) slams the door shut.

The Braves also have the fortune of starting to see some of their early season disappointments coming to life in July. Youngsters Freddie Freeman (15 HR’s, 51 RBI’s) and Jason Heyward (.229, 10 HR’s) are coming up big lately while Dan Uggla (17 HR’s, 38 RBI’s) has finally awaken as he tries to get his average over .200. The real key to the Braves being considered a candidate to winning the pennant is having Martin Prado (.275, 36 RBI’s) back in the lineup who seems to make the team go. Prado has been the total team player this year, playing left-field to help the team out when replacing Uggla and now third-base for the injured Chipper Jones.

The Braves are trying to dump Derek Lowe before the deadline meaning they will likely try to make a deal for another starter. If they could get Hiroki Kuroda to change his mind about playing on the east coast, he would be the perfect fit for the team. Their outfield is still lacking some punch and minimal contributions to the team. If they can’t get Beltran in a trade, maybe Eric Ludwick from San Diego would be a nice fit.

National League Central

The Milwaukee Brewers (13/2) are favored to win the division because of their combination of bats, starting pitching and bullpen. It’s a great mix, but something just doesn’t seem right with the team, especially a team considered a favorite. The trio of Rickie Weeks (19 HR’s, 70 Runs), Ryan Braun (.319, 66 RBI’s) and Prince Fielder (22 HR’s, 73 RBI’s) have been everything as expected which is why they are favored, but can anyone explain what Milwaukee’s deal is on the road? A 20-33 road record says a lot about this team’s character in the sense that they are collectively coasting and not doing some of the little things to help them win.

A team that is good as they are at home (33-14) should not be conversely as bad on the road. The starting pitching can take much of the blame. Zack Grienke (7-4, 4.84 ERA) hasn’t given the Brewers the pitcher we saw in Kansas City. Yovani Gallardo (11-6, 3.96 ERA) has been good at times, but he’s not going to instill fear into many opposing teams. Shaun Marcum (8-3, 3.39 ERA) has been the best of the bunch, but even he has his moments of lapse as he’s only had 11 quality starts in 20 games.

The bullpen has been solid and has had to keep games close early on several games as they wait for the bats to come around. Getting Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets was a great move because not many contending teams rely on their bullpen as much, or as early, as the Brewers do.

The St. Louis Cardinals (8/1) have the top hitting team in the NL (.266) and have scored the most runs (456), but their problem has been pitching, specifically the bullpen. The Cards have 18 blown saves this season, second most in baseball behind the Nationals (20). Just finding a closer isn’t the answer for them because they need a completely re-built unit.

It’s amazing that a team like Tampa Bay can come into the season with a brand new ‘cheap” bullpen and be one of the best in the league, but St. Louis can’t enhance their current group with coaching.

Before the trade deadline approaches, the Cards better be in line to get Heath Bell from San Diego if they have any intention of contending for the division. Then they need to go get themselves two affective set-up men to bolster their pen and hold leads.

Their starting pitching hasn’t been that bad this year. In fact, it’s probably the best rotation in the division right now. Their best pitcher at the moment, Chris Carpenter (5-7, 3.69 ERA), is the only starter with a losing record. After a terrible start, the Cardinals have won Carpenter’s last five with Carpenter only allowing three runs in his last four winning decisions. St. Louis should be able ride this guy through September, but he’s going to need some help. If St. Louis gets the bullpen help, the Cards should win the central.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (18/1) are considered the longest shot of all the NL contenders to make the playoffs. But who said the wild card has to come out of the east? It’s conceivable to think that a couple of the central teams could go on a run and pass the Braves should they slip a little. The Bucs and Brewers are only 5.5 games behind Atlanta with two months to go.

The Pirates don’t do a lot of things great, but they do many things well and the support of the fans in Pittsburgh has raised their abilities to new heights. They may have the 23rd worst hitting team in baseball, but their sixth lowest ERA (3.34) has kept them around.

It doesn’t appear the Pirates will be big buyers before the deadline, even though they could use a fresh new bat in the outfield. But even without an addition, they don’t seem to be going away anytime soon. They’re a hard team to bet in futures for many just because they don’t have any one area that ’awes‘ or ’wows’ us like the Phillies, Braves and Giants do. But the passion and unselfishness with which these guys are playing right now behind full crowds at PNC Park is pretty inspiring.

The Cincinnati Reds (13/1) are a disaster outside of Johnny Cueto (6-3, 1.98 ERA), Joey Votto (.318, 58 RBI’s) and Brandon Phillips (.278, 52 RBI’s). Between Drew Stubbs’ 127 strikeouts and Jay Bruce’s awful June and July, that might be enough to count the Reds out. But wait, there’s more.

The starting pitching and bullpen were a question mark before the season started and it’s fair to say that the answer has been given: They are one of the worst starting rotations in baseball. The Reds should be on the phone right now trying to make a deal for the Astros Brett Myers or Bud Norris for any of the Reds starters outside of Cueto. They aren’t far enough back that re-tooling at this point could help them out. And Dontrelle Willis isn’t re-tooling, either.

Unless Cincinnati makes something happen quick, they’ll fall out of the race in the central.

National League West

The San Francisco Giants (5/1) are playing every bit the part as defending World Champions by repeating their affective style this season. That style is forcing the other team to blink in low scoring staring contests. Their pitching goes out and does their thing with their hitting being stymied most of the game and they play to a draw for seven innings. Then in the crunch, with the pressure on, this team comes alive with big hits.

The Giants play playoff baseball every night and it’s why they are the champs. They’re battle tested and no clutch moment is a new happening for any of the players. They have an amazing 26-13 record in one-run games this season, a difference that is close to their overall record, 15 games over .500 on the season.

I loved how they used their winning trade formula from last season and applied it this year by not getting the big bat, and possibly someone who wouldn’t mesh with the team. They went and got a nice hitter, Jeff Kiplinger (.305), from the worst team in baseball. Keppinger is just happy to be there after the mess he was just part of and can do some of the same things Freddy Sanchez did for Giants.

This is a well-oiled machine right now and as great as the Phillies and Braves pitching looks, the battle tested resiliency of the Giants will be hard to beat. They can go head-to-head with any team in baseball. They look to have the best odds to win the pennant right now at 5/1.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (13/1) still may have a run left in them. They’ve been forgotten somewhat after their impressive 15-2 run in late May, but they’re hanging in there quite well for a team that was expected to only win 72 games this year according the Hilton’s pre-season over-under number. The Giants have been so overbearing because of their consistency that not many give the D-Backs a chance for the post season, but right now they’d be leading the NL Central and have a closer path to the wild card than any of those teams.

The D-Backs chances of improving took a major blow when Stephen Drew was lost for the season, but I still like the make up of their lineup led by Justin Upton (16 HR’s, 48 RBI’s) and Miguel Montero (11 Hr’s, 48 RBI’s). They have a scrappy bunch of players that play the game proper under manager Kirk Gibson’s own mantra.

Ian Kennedy (11-3, 3.22 ERA) and Daniel Hudson (10-5, 3.56 ERA) have turned into a pretty good 1-2 punch. Josh Collmentor (5-5, 2.65 ERA) is learning on the job as has been dominant at times, but the rest of the rotation isn’t ready for playoff baseball.

The bullpen has been better than expected, but who knows if J.J. Putz’s elbow will rebound after being out since late June. Putz only blew three save opportunities in 25 tries.

Given the key injuries, next year may be the D-Backs opportunity to make a post-season appearance. But it has been fun watching them achieve greater success than most of us expected.

My Prediction

It’s not really going out on a limb by taking the Phillies, Braves and Giants to make the playoffs. Hardly anyone would disagree with those three pitching staffs, but the central division is where the debates come into play. I would love nothing more than to see the Pirates win the division, but I can’t sell myself on it entirely. I could see the Cardinals getting their act together if picking up Heath Bell. Between the four of those teams, I would side with the Giants to win the pennant.

[StarDust Bum]

AL Forecast

July 23, 2011

National League Forecast
When looking at the standings with just over 60 games to go in the 2011 baseball season, you'd be hard pressed to make any real changes to how things may end up, at least outside of the Central division. Here's a look at how things may turn out in the American League after 162 games, along with each team's current odds to win the pennant offered by the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

American League East

The Boston Red Sox (7/4) currently have the AL's best record and have done so despite starting the season 2-10. They've got the luxury of being able to win games when their starting pitching has a rare lapse. They've won consistently with their aces, while also getting the job done with youngsters filling in for Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. They are the complete package and the only case that could be made for them to lose the first round of the playoffs is running into hot starting rotation.

The New York Yankees (2/1) have kind of been the forgotten team of sorts, as hard as it is to believe the pinstripes could ever be forgotten. Other than Derek Jeter's chase for 3,000, the only really consistent story on the year for them has been CC Sabathia (14 wins) and maybe Curtis Granderson (25 HR's). Alex Rodriguez will be missing for a month, but they were in cruise control even when he wasn't hitting before the injury.

The key for the Yankees to hold onto the Wild Card, or make a run at the division, will be their pitching. A.J. Burnett has got to perform better, but the worst case scenario is unfolding for them right now as Bartolo Colon looks to be tired and has lost three straight starts. The good news is that Phil Hughes may be like a free-agent pickup of sorts without giving anything away. He won his first game of the season Sunday after experiencing a season where he had a 'dead arm'. In the win, Hughes threw 80 pitches and had five strikeouts with lots of pace on the ball.

The Tampa Bay Rays (18/1) look to be forced into saving payroll mode now as they raise the surrender flag to the division. Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton are being shopped right now and could be gone by the trade deadline. The Rays still have the pitching to make a run down the stretch, but their best brand of ball looks to be behind us and there is only one Wild Card spot.

American League Central

The Cleveland Indians (18/1) have been a great story this season, but can they really hang on? It seems like they are teetering daily on going into a major slump, but then they have the fortune of playing a division where their closest rivals lose at the same rate. It's like no one wants the division. Whoever makes the right moves before the trade deadline could make the biggest difference.

Josh Tomlin (11 wins) and Justin Masterson (2.64 ERA) have gained their second wind after an amazing April and have pitched very well in late June and July. Their best bet would to go out and get a middle-reliever to help get the lead safe to Chris Perez (22 SV's) who has only two blown saves all season.

The Detroit Tigers (8/1) are the favorites to win the division, but they're going to have to do something to drastically improve their 26th worst ranked ERA (4.28). Getting Derek Lowe in a trade may not be the solution, either, but they've got to do something because Justin Verlander (12 wins) and Max Scherzer (10 wins) can't get it done alone. There also has to be concerns about when Jose Valverde (25 SV's) will finally break down. He's converted every save opportunity this season, but his past history shows that he's not this good. The one factor that the Tigers have going for them that could tilt the scales in their favor is manager Jim Leyland.

The Chicago White Sox (18/1) are 4 ½ games back, three games under .500, and yet the Hilton has them with the same odds to win the pennant as the division leader. That shows just how much respect most people have for the Sox despite their first half floundering. They are easily the most disappointing team of the season just because of those expectations.

Their bullpen has been awful all season and they could use a lot of help there via trades. But the upside is that the starting pitching has been decent and there seems little chance of Adam Dunn (.158) and Alex Rios (.211) being as bad as they have been in the first half. The rest of the batting order has been solid and they could definitely make a run in the last two months.

The Minnesota Twins (13/1) are expected to make a run and are considered better shots to win the division than both the Indians and White Sox by the Hilton. Those pennant odds may reflect the overall risk on the Twins, which are annually higher than most teams just as the Cubs are, but it's a common notion believed by many that the Twins will surge at some point.

However, even with Joe Mauer (.291) back, we haven't seen too much of an improvement collectively. It was expected that having Mauer back behind the plate would help the starting rotation immensely, but we're still seeing the same type of inconsistency. And now, the bullpen is looking shabbier than ever. Ron Gardenhire fits into that Jim Leyland category of giving his team an edge, but he doesn't have much to work with.

American League West

The Texas Rangers (3/1) are the defending AL champions and they look every bit as formidable as they did last year while currently on a 12-game winning streak. That seems to be what the Rangers have been all about this season, streaks. They started the season off with a six-game winning streak, then later, had three separate three-game streaks and then a five-game spurt. On the basis of those streaks alone, they would look to be the easy favorites, but they've also had several little losing streaks as well which why they don't have a lead over the Angels larger than five games.

Their hitting is always going to be there, but what has been impressive is the rotation coming together around C.J. Wilson (10 wins). Alexi Ogando (2.73 ERA) has more than filled in for the void of not having Cliff Lee. Matt Harrison (2.91 ERA) has been steady all season while Colby Lewis (9 wins) and Derek Holland (3 shutouts) have just started to pitch their best. If the staff keeps going the way they are, they could begin to command respect as the favorite to win the AL.

The Los Angeles Angels (18/1) are ranked 25th in runs scored in baseball, yet have one of the best pitching staffs following a growing West Coast trend this season. It's hard to understand their issues at the plate because they have so many good hitters in the lineup, but they're missing the timely hits. Their lineup is filled with tiny bats who gets hits, but the big boppers aren't bopping. Mark Trumbo has been a pleasant surprise (18 HR's), but the power source from veterans Bobby Abreu (.271, 3 HR's), Vernon Wells (.218, 14 HR's) and Torii Hunter (.237, 11 HR's) haven't been consistent enough.

The only thing the Angels have going for them is their pitching, which is a pretty good thing. Jered Weaver (12 wins, 1.90 ERA) has been amazing this year and Dan Haren (10 wins, 2.75) has been a terrific sidekick for a potent 1-2 punch. Ervin Santana has had a very good season despite his record (4-8), but doesn't get any run support. He's got the highest strikeout per nine innings (7.68) on the team and keeps walks to a minimum. Tyler Chatwood has also emerged as quality starter (5-6, 3.84 ERA).

Should the Angels somehow get past the Rangers, a short series against the AL powers could be over very quick with those starters.

My Division Picks

I hate to go with the chalk in all the divisions, but you almost have to if thinking logically, right? I love the story of the Indians and think the White Sox will eventually contend, but the Tigers look to be the pick in the Central. If the Rangers starting pitching holds up like they have lately, they'll find themselves playing in the World Series again.

On Friday, we'll review the National League in what looks like a very similar situation to the AL's with two teams controlling the East, a juggernaut in the West and the Central up for grabs.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Oakland at N.Y. Yankees

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (43-55, -16.7 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (57-39, +5.8 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -250, Oakland +190

In a lopsided matchup, the powerhouse Yankees take on the tied-for-last A’s who will be clear sellers at the deadline. New York, on the other hand, is always a buyer, and at just two games back of the Red Sox for the AL East lead, will certainly look to make a pre-deadline push for the top.

The Yankees have dominated AL West opponents this year with a 72% winning percentage (13-5) against them, and have also flourished in the favorite role, winning 61 percent of the time (47-30). The Bombers are 30-19 at home (61%) and are a ridiculous 28-5 in day games (85%), and this series features two games under the sun. The A’s are also dreadful on the road, one of baseball’s worst teams, with a 17-33 mark (34%) away from Oakland and 5-12 (29%) against AL East opponents. Play NEW YORK to win the series.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends that back up the Yankees pick.

N.Y. YANKEES are 52-18 (74.3%, +24.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was N.Y. YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*).

OAKLAND is 12-31 (27.9%, -18.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 3.1, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
OAK: 10-9 (+0.05 Units) when Gio Gonzalez starts
NYY: 8-6 (-0.05 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
Gonzalez (9-6, 2.33 ERA) is in the middle of an extremely strong season, with eight straight starts of allowing three earned runs or less (2.10 ERA). But prior to this streak, he was hit hard by the Yankees (6.1 IP, 4 ER) and has a 6.33 career ERA against them. There’s a clear reason for that: the Yankees kill lefties. In the three seasons Gonzalez has faced New York, the Bombers have crushed southpaw pitching (.845 OPS in 2009, .790 OPS in 2010 and .813 OPS this year).
Colon (6-6, 3.34 ERA) needed to show something to doubters in his last start after he was absolutely battered by the Blue Jays two starts ago, allowing eight runs without making it out of the first inning. Although he lost, he threw very well against the Rays, allowing just one earned in over 6.1 innings and fanning nine batters. Play him against the lefty who the Yankees should hit hard.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Atlanta at Cincinnati

ATLANTA BRAVES (58-41, +8.6 Units)

at CINCINNATI REDS (48-50, -8.7 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Atlanta -125, Cincinnati -105

With both teams in the hunt for their respective division leads, the Braves and Reds face off in Cincinnati for what should be a crucial race in determining not only divisional and wild card standings, but also trade deadline strategies. The Braves are rumored to be favorites for Mets OF Carlos Beltran, while the Reds have considered making acquisitions of their own, only four games back of the Central lead.

Play on CINCINNATI to win this series, which should receive favorable odds against the stronger Braves, but gets the pitching edge in two games of this series. The major test for the Braves in trying to win this three-game set will be facing Dontrelle Willis in the third game; while the lefty has not been very reliable in recent years, the Braves are the worst hitting team in baseball against southpaws with a .212 average.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to choose the Reds.

BAKER is 90-72 (55.6%, +18.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra-base hits per game in the second half of the season as the manager of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

ATLANTA is 10-18 (35.7%, -12.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.5, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
ATL: 6-7 (-2.30 Units) when Brandon Beachy starts
CIN: 0-2 (-2.00 Units) when Dontrelle Willis starts
Beachy (3-2, 3.75 ERA) gave up season highs in hits (nine) and runs (six) his last time out against the Rockies in Coors Field, but overall is in the midst of a strong season. The key for him is missing bats, something he has done spectacularly all season with 81 K in 72 innings. The Reds also have the propensity to strike out a lot, with 730 whiffs this year, which is tied for sixth-most in the majors.
In his revival attempt with the Reds, Willis (0-1, 3.38 ERA) has been decent, even if he’s only lasted 10.2 innings in his two starts. The good news for the once-phenom southpaw is this: the Braves have the lowest batting average against lefties by far in baseball at .212.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Milwaukee at San Francisco

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (53-47, +1.9 Units)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (57-42, +10.3 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: San Francisco -150, Milwaukee +120

Both atop their respective divisions, this will be a particularly big series for the Brewers who are percentage points behind the Pirates for the NL Central lead. However, Milwaukee will be without center fielder Carlos Gomez, who injured his collarbone Wednesday and was placed on the DL. Both teams are rumored suitors of Mets OF Carlos Beltran, something that could be affected by how the teams fare in this series.

Play on SAN FRANCISCO to win this series. The Giants have two starters with sub-3.00 ERAs pitching, and the Brewers will sorely miss Gomez in spacious AT&T Park. Gomez is a superb defender who covers immense ground, as evidenced by his massive 23.2 UZR/150 this season. This should help the Giants bats in putting together rallies and scoring off the mediocre Brewers pitching.

The FoxSheets show this telling trend favoring the Giants.

SAN FRANCISCO is 73-43 (62.9%, +28.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 4:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
MIL: 12-9 (+0.95 Units) when Yovani Gallardo starts
SF: 9-11 (-2.85 Units) when Madison Bumgarner starts
Gallardo (11-6, 3.96 ERA) has been pretty good this season, but far better at home. Away from Milwaukee he has a 4.69 ERA compared to 3.23 at home, something that makes him a sketchy play here. The Brewers lineup also struggles with lefties, so he isn’t bound to get a ton of run support.
Bumgarner isn’t quite as impressive as Cain or Vogelsong, but the former top prospect in baseball draws a favorable matchup here. The Brewers, who live and die with the bat, are 23rd in baseball with a .242 average against lefties, and .291 OBP on the road (.351 OBP at home). Also, despite his 4.05 ERA in his past three starts, Bumgarner has been doing the right things to win, with 17 strikeouts and only one walk in that span.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (47-51, -8.2 Units)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (51-46, +9.9 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Cleveland -140, Chicago +110

With the Indians only one win back from the lead in the AL Central, this divisional showdown with the White Sox will be crucial in how the rest of the season shakes out. A strong showing could propel the Tribe to make an aggressive deadline move, such as trading for Mets OF Carlos Beltran, while if they start to slip, such an approach may prove imprudent. The White Sox are on the fringe of contention and if they could take all three games would all of a sudden be in the conversation, and everybody knows how their GM Kenny Williams can be – undeterred in trade talks.

Although both teams enter this series cold -- Cleveland has lost four of six, Chicago has dropped three of four -- the pick here is for CLEVELAND to win the series. The Indians win 60% at home this year and have favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games. The key for them will be the second start of the season from southpaw David Huff on Saturday, who pitched spectacularly his first time out, while the White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League (85) against left-handed pitching.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends supporting the Indians.

CHICAGO is 20-34 (37.0%, -18.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO 3.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*).

CLEVELAND is 24-14 (63.2%, +12.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
CHW: 9-8 (+1.60 Units) when Philip Humber starts
CLE: 11-9 (+1.50 Units) when Justin Masterson starts
Humber (8-6, 3.27 ERA) struggled in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just nine innings, while allowing a whopping 18 hits in that span. He’s still had success notching strikeouts and limiting walks (10:2 K:BB), so he’s been sticking to the formula that has led him to success all year; he’s not as bad of a play as his recent stats indicate. He’ll be making his first career start versus the Indians.
Masterson (8-6, 2.64 ERA) has been Cleveland’s best starter this year and has only been getting better. Over his past three starts, he has a 1.66 ERA in 21.2 innings with an amazing 6.7 K-to-BB ratio (20 K, 3 BB). That, in addition to his success against the White Sox this season – two earned runs in 15 innings – makes him the play for this game.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Boston at Seattle

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-55, -11.8 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (59-37, +6.6 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -220, Seattle +170

Since climbing back to .500 on July 5, the Mariners have gone on to lose 12 straight, all but ending any postseason thoughts. And it’s all happening just in time for Friday’s start of a three-game set in Boston, where the Red Sox have compiled the second-best road record in the American League.

While the reward on a Boston bet is small, betting the money line on Seattle makes even less sense. They’ve scored just 27 runs during their 12-game losing streak, hitting .208 along the way. Boston, on the other hand, has won 10 of 12 and scored 78 runs during that span. Even if they get a gem from Felix Hernandez on Friday, it’s highly unlikely the M’s will be able to outscore the Sox on Saturday or Sunday. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated trend siding with BOSTON to win the series.

SEATTLE is 0-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better this season. The average score was SEATTLE 2.6, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
SEA: 9-10 (-1.85 Units) when Michael Pineda starts
BOS: 8-4 (+2.85 Units) when Tim Wakefield starts
Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) has hit a bit of a rookie wall, posting a 6.46 ERA over his past four starts. He’s still striking out hitters (25 K in 23.2 innings during that span), but his control has been off (11 walks) and he’s given up four homers in those four games. This will be his first career start against Boston, so he might have an edge against a team seeing him for the first time.
Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been nothing to write home about, especially of late. Since June 1, he has a 5.29 ERA. His ERA in three July starts is 5.82, but the Sox have won all three of those games thanks to some monster offense. He’s just 4-10 career as a starter against the Mariners, but did hold them to one run over 5.2 innings in a Sox victory in May.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4

July 21, 2011

Sunday, July 24

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11 1/2) Over/Under (56)

Saskatchewan has had its hands full with Montreal recently, including a 39-25 loss to the Alouettes as a 3 1/2-point home underdog on opening day. The Roughriders are in desperate need of a win after starting the season 0-3 both SU and ATS. Montreal, winners of the last two Grey Cups, has outscored its opponents 109-68 in its first three games.

The Roughriders have sunk to 1-7 SU against Montreal in the last eight encounters but are a respectable 5-3 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five meetings and in 12 of the last 16 played at Stade Percival-Molson Stadium. Perennial All-Star quarterback Anthony Calvillo is off to another great start for the Alouettes; completing 80 of 166 attempts for a league-high 1,038 passing yards and 10 touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Sunday, July 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 1:05 PM ET Cleveland -130 500
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500

Oakland - 1:05 PM ET Oakland +155 500
NY Yankees - Under 9 500

NY Mets - 1:10 PM ET NY Mets +122 500
Florida - Under 8.5 500

Seattle - 1:35 PM ET Boston -153 500
Boston - Over 9 500

LA Angels - 1:35 PM ET Baltimore -113 500
Baltimore - Over 9.5 500

San Diego - 1:35 PM ET San Diego +210 500
Philadelphia - Under 6.5 500

St. Louis - 1:35 PM ET Pittsburgh +107 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Tampa Bay - 2:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -108 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

Houston - 2:20 PM ET Houston +157 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 8.5 500

Milwaukee - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -106 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

Detroit - 4:10 PM ET Minnesota -124 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Washington - 4:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -136 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

Colorado - 4:10 PM ET Arizona +122 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Toronto - 8:05 PM ET Texas -190 500
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Atlanta - 8:05 PM ET Cincinnati +114 500 DOG OF THE DAY
Cincinnati - Under 9 500



CFL

Sunday, July 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Saskatchewan - 7:00 PM ET Montreal -11.5 500
Montreal - Under 56 500