The Bum's Thursday's MLB-WNBA Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Padres Complete Series At Florida Marlins

The San Diego Padres and Florida Marlins have little to play for except for pride these days. They close out a three-game series Thursday afternoon in Miami with the first pitch scheduled for 9:10 a.m. (PT) at Sun Life Stadium.

San Diego has been blanked on 15 occasions this year, but tallied a 4-0 series-opening victory Tuesday. The Padres are now 71-68 in the all-time series, including a 41-35 mark in South Florida.

The club captured a much-needed victory on the road, after dropping eight of the previous nine games away from Petco Park. It also snapped a season-high seven-game losing streak.

Wednesday's second game was still pending with the Marlins listed at -160 behind Ricky Nolasco.

Dustin Moseley (2-9, 3.36 ERA) is ready to make his 19th start this season and has dropped three consecutive decisions. The squad has also lost six straight games with him on the mound, as the offense has scored just 14 runs of support.

The right-hander has recorded a 1-4 mark and 2.83 ERA in nine road outings, surrendering just three home runs in 54 frames. He will be making his first career start versus the Marlins.

Florida suffered through a terrible June, but has bounced back nicely in posting a 11-5 record this month. Since June 29, the Marlins have won 13-of-18 games, as the offense ranks third in the league with a .266 average over that span.

The team has dropped eight of its last 10 games versus the Padres and is an even 10-10 versus foes from the National League West.

Javier Vazquez (6-8, 5.14 ERA) has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, posting a 2-0 record and 2.25 ERA in three starts this month. He has limited opposing hitters to a .211 batting average.

The veteran has struggled at times at home, entering with a 3-5 mark and 5.67 ERA in eight appearances, issuing 17 free passes and allowing 53 hits in 39 2/3 frames.

Total players will be interested in knowing that the ‘over’ is 10-4-1 in his last 15 starts overall, which is exactly opposite for the teams falling 'under' the number in four straight games.

Home plate umpire Mike Estabrook has led hosts to an 8-5 record this season and the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of 12 games with him behind the plate.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the low-90s with a 60 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms. A swirling wind of 5-10 mph is expected throughout the contest.

San Diego will spend this weekend in Philadelphia battling the NL-leading Phillies while the Marlins remain home to host the Mets.

[StarDust Bum]

Sabathia And Yankees Clash With Shields, Rays

American League East rivals duke it out for the final time in a 4-game series on Thursday, as the Tampa Bay Rays face off with the New York Yankees. MLB betting action from Tropicana Field kicks off at 4:10 p.m. (PT), and live coverage is set for the YES Network, Sun Sports, and the MLB Network.

The trade deadline is looming, and we know that the Bronx Bombers are going to be looking to add some help. However, Tampa Bay is right in that iffy zone where it needs to make some major strides to justify being buyers, but isn't so far out of it that it has to sell either.

On Thursday, we're going to see a pitching matchup that could be for the ages. For the Yanks, CC Sabathia is going to take on James Shields .

Sabathia is clearly one of the hottest pitchers in the bigs right now. He has won seven consecutive starts and has allowed just two runs in his last five starts combined. In the process, Sabathia has picked up seven units of profits for MLB bettors, bringing him up to a net profit of 8.34 units for the campaign, sixth in baseball and tops in the American League.

The southpaw has had himself some amazing starts against Tampa Bay, including one just a week and a half ago in the Bronx. Sabathia allowed just four hits and a walk in a complete game shutout, his second complete game of the season and his second career shutout vs. the Rays.

All told, Sabathia is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA in his 21 career starts against manager Joe Maddon's club.

Part of the reason why Tampa Bay is mired in third place in the AL East standings is because of the recent lack of form of the man who will be on the hill on Thursday. Shields was always known as "Big Game James" in the Sunshine State, but he picked up the moniker "Complete Game James" after toss three straight full outings in June.

Since that point though, he is 0-4 and his ERA has risen from 2.29 to 2.60.

For the season, Shields is only 8-8, but he does have seven complete games. His 1.00 WHIP is the best of his career, and batters are only hitting .212 against him.

In his last outing against New York, Shields was remarkable. He allowed just one unearned run in eight innings, but he was outdueled by Sabathia in that 1-0 loss.

Take the loss is something that Shields is getting used to against the Yanks. He is only 3-10 in 17 career starts, and has a 4.47 ERA. Tampa Bay is only 4-13 with Shields on the mound against the Bronx Bombers, and just 2-6 in his eight starts at Tropicana Field against them as well.

Coming into play on Wednesday, the Yanks own a 4-3 lead in this season series, beating Shields twice.

Alfonso Marquez is slated to call the balls and strikes for the series finale. His last three plate assignments have each finished 'under' the total, part of a 10-9-1 record to the low side so far in 2011.

Tampa Bay hits the road for the first time since the All-Star Break on Friday, when they start a 10-game road trip against the Kansas City Royals. New York will conclude its 8-game roadie on Thursday before heading home on Friday when the Oakland Athletics will be in town to begin a weekend series.

[StarDust Bum]

Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers look to continue their dominance over the Minnesota Twins when they start a 4-game series Thursday night. Detroit is 5-0 against them this year and has won nine straight overall.

First pitch from Target Field will be at 5:10 p.m. (PT). Justin Verlander looks to bounce back from his worst performance in weeks, while Carl Pavano gets the unenviable opposing assignment.

Detroit (51-45) is tied with Cleveland for the AL Central lead. The Tigers are 2-2 since the All-Star break, and were 130 favorites for Wednesday’s home game with Oakland (result pending).

Verlander (12-5, 2.29 ERA) carried the Tigers starters in the first half and his season ERA is more than two runs lower than the next regular starter. However, while Max Scherzer, Brad Penny and Rick Porcello opened the second half with quality starts, the ace came up short last Friday against the White Sox.

Verlander allowed four earned runs over six innings in an 8-2 loss. The White Sox only had seven hits, but they were timely. He was incredible (8-1, .75 ERA) in his nine starts before the break. The ‘under’ went 8-1.

The 28-year-old right-hander missed the first two series against the Twins this year. He’s 7-7 with a 3.71 ERA lifetime against them, but just 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA in Minnesota. His one start at the new Target Field was last September, allowing six runs (three earned) over six innings in a wild 10-9 win.

The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in Verlander’s last nine starts against Minnesota.

The Twins (45-51) got a crucial 2-run, ninth inning rally against Cleveland on Tuesday (2-1 victory). They’re now six games out in the Central after dropping the first two against the Tribe. Wednesday’s series finale is still pending.

Minnesota has struggled to hit since the break (3.4 runs per game), despite being at home. The ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in its last six games.

Pavano (6-6, 4.08 ERA) has one of the worst strikeout rates in the AL (3.88) , but he’s only walked 25 guys in 130 innings and his OPS allowed is a respectable .734.

The 35-year-old right-hander started the second half versus Kansas City last Saturday, allowing three earned runs over seven innings in a 4-3 win. It was his third straight quality start and his ERA is 2.82 since June (Minny going 6-2) compared to 5.19 before (Minny going 3-8).

Pavano is playing with fire lately, surrendering a home run in his last five starts. He’s pitched much better at home overall (2.90 ERA), compared to away (5.07 ERA).

This is Pavano’s first start against the Tigers this year. He’s 5-2 with a 3.79 ERA lifetime against them. He faced them three times last year (5.49 ERA), all on the road.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Minnesota and Detroit meetings this year and 7-2 in the last nine.

Minnesota lost its two home games to the Tigers in May, but was 14-4 at home against them the last two years. The Twins are 24-22 at home this year (+0.9 units), but 17-6 in their last 23.

The Tigers are just 22-24 on the road this season (-.8 units), compared to 29-21 at home (+9.0 units). However, they’re 4-1 in their last five away.

Minnesota has hitters Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Denard Span still on the DL, although the latter two are close to returning. Detroit doesn’t have any significant injuries.

Weather will be clear and around 80 degrees. Friday night’s game will be Scherzer against Brian Duensing, with late afternoon tilts for both weekend contests.

[StarDust Bum]

AL Forecast

July 20, 2011


When looking at the standings with just over 60 games to go in the 2011 baseball season, you'd be hard pressed to make any real changes to how things may end up, at least outside of the Central division. Here's a look at how things may turn out in the American League after 162 games, along with each team's current odds to win the pennant offered by the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

American League East

The Boston Red Sox (7/4) currently have the AL's best record and have done so despite starting the season 2-10. They've got the luxury of being able to win games when their starting pitching has a rare lapse. They've won consistently with their aces, while also getting the job done with youngsters filling in for Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. They are the complete package and the only case that could be made for them to lose the first round of the playoffs is running into hot starting rotation.

The New York Yankees (2/1) have kind of been the forgotten team of sorts, as hard as it is to believe the pinstripes could ever be forgotten. Other than Derek Jeter's chase for 3,000, the only really consistent story on the year for them has been CC Sabathia (14 wins) and maybe Curtis Granderson (25 HR's). Alex Rodriguez will be missing for a month, but they were in cruise control even when he wasn't hitting before the injury.

The key for the Yankees to hold onto the Wild Card, or make a run at the division, will be their pitching. A.J. Burnett has got to perform better, but the worst case scenario is unfolding for them right now as Bartolo Colon looks to be tired and has lost three straight starts. The good news is that Phil Hughes may be like a free-agent pickup of sorts without giving anything away. He won his first game of the season Sunday after experiencing a season where he had a 'dead arm'. In the win, Hughes threw 80 pitches and had five strikeouts with lots of pace on the ball.

The Tampa Bay Rays (18/1) look to be forced into saving payroll mode now as they raise the surrender flag to the division. Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton are being shopped right now and could be gone by the trade deadline. The Rays still have the pitching to make a run down the stretch, but their best brand of ball looks to be behind us and there is only one Wild Card spot.

American League Central

The Cleveland Indians (18/1) have been a great story this season, but can they really hang on? It seems like they are teetering daily on going into a major slump, but then they have the fortune of playing a division where their closest rivals lose at the same rate. It's like no one wants the division. Whoever makes the right moves before the trade deadline could make the biggest difference.

Josh Tomlin (11 wins) and Justin Masterson (2.64 ERA) have gained their second wind after an amazing April and have pitched very well in late June and July. Their best bet would to go out and get a middle-reliever to help get the lead safe to Chris Perez (22 SV's) who has only two blown saves all season.

The Detroit Tigers (8/1) are the favorites to win the division, but they're going to have to do something to drastically improve their 26th worst ranked ERA (4.28). Getting Derek Lowe in a trade may not be the solution, either, but they've got to do something because Justin Verlander (12 wins) and Max Scherzer (10 wins) can't get it done alone. There also has to be concerns about when Jose Valverde (25 SV's) will finally break down. He's converted every save opportunity this season, but his past history shows that he's not this good. The one factor that the Tigers have going for them that could tilt the scales in their favor is manager Jim Leyland.

The Chicago White Sox (18/1) are 4 ½ games back, three games under .500, and yet the Hilton has them with the same odds to win the pennant as the division leader. That shows just how much respect most people have for the Sox despite their first half floundering. They are easily the most disappointing team of the season just because of those expectations.

Their bullpen has been awful all season and they could use a lot of help there via trades. But the upside is that the starting pitching has been decent and there seems little chance of Adam Dunn (.158) and Alex Rios (.211) being as bad as they have been in the first half. The rest of the batting order has been solid and they could definitely make a run in the last two months.

The Minnesota Twins (13/1) are expected to make a run and are considered better shots to win the division than both the Indians and White Sox by the Hilton. Those pennant odds may reflect the overall risk on the Twins, which are annually higher than most teams just as the Cubs are, but it's a common notion believed by many that the Twins will surge at some point.

However, even with Joe Mauer (.291) back, we haven't seen too much of an improvement collectively. It was expected that having Mauer back behind the plate would help the starting rotation immensely, but we're still seeing the same type of inconsistency. And now, the bullpen is looking shabbier than ever. Ron Gardenhire fits into that Jim Leyland category of giving his team an edge, but he doesn't have much to work with.

American League West

The Texas Rangers (3/1) are the defending AL champions and they look every bit as formidable as they did last year while currently on a 12-game winning streak. That seems to be what the Rangers have been all about this season, streaks. They started the season off with a six-game winning streak, then later, had three separate three-game streaks and then a five-game spurt. On the basis of those streaks alone, they would look to be the easy favorites, but they've also had several little losing streaks as well which why they don't have a lead over the Angels larger than five games.

Their hitting is always going to be there, but what has been impressive is the rotation coming together around C.J. Wilson (10 wins). Alexi Ogando (2.73 ERA) has more than filled in for the void of not having Cliff Lee. Matt Harrison (2.91 ERA) has been steady all season while Colby Lewis (9 wins) and Derek Holland (3 shutouts) have just started to pitch their best. If the staff keeps going the way they are, they could begin to command respect as the favorite to win the AL.

The Los Angeles Angels (18/1) are ranked 25th in runs scored in baseball, yet have one of the best pitching staffs following a growing West Coast trend this season. It's hard to understand their issues at the plate because they have so many good hitters in the lineup, but they're missing the timely hits. Their lineup is filled with tiny bats who gets hits, but the big boppers aren't bopping. Mark Trumbo has been a pleasant surprise (18 HR's), but the power source from veterans Bobby Abreu (.271, 3 HR's), Vernon Wells (.218, 14 HR's) and Torii Hunter (.237, 11 HR's) haven't been consistent enough.

The only thing the Angels have going for them is their pitching, which is a pretty good thing. Jered Weaver (12 wins, 1.90 ERA) has been amazing this year and Dan Haren (10 wins, 2.75) has been a terrific sidekick for a potent 1-2 punch. Ervin Santana has had a very good season despite his record (4-8), but doesn't get any run support. He's got the highest strikeout per nine innings (7.68) on the team and keeps walks to a minimum. Tyler Chatwood has also emerged as quality starter (5-6, 3.84 ERA).

Should the Angels somehow get past the Rangers, a short series against the AL powers could be over very quick with those starters.

My Division Picks

I hate to go with the chalk in all the divisions, but you almost have to if thinking logically, right? I love the story of the Indians and think the White Sox will eventually contend, but the Tigers look to be the pick in the Central. If the Rangers starting pitching holds up like they have lately, they'll find themselves playing in the World Series again.

On Friday, we'll review the National League in what looks like a very similar situation to the AL's with two teams controlling the East, a juggernaut in the West and the Central up for grabs.

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Thursday

July 20, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE


St. Louis at N.Y. Mets - 12:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Westbrook (7-4, 5.26 ERA) 3-6 L9 2-5 L7 away during day
Niese (9-7, 3.73 ERA) 3-6 L9 9-4 L13 home during day

Mets beat Cardinals, 4-2 on Tuesday

San Diego at Florida - 12:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Moseley (2-9, 3.36 ERA) 2-8 L10 1-6 L7 away Game 3's
Vazquez (6-8, 5.14 ERA) 9-2 L11 5-10 home Game 3's

Padres beat Marlins, 4-0 on Tuesday

Atlanta at Colorado - 3:10 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hanson (10-5, 2.73 ERA) 7-4 L11 7-3 L10 away during day
Chacin (8-7, 3.37 ERA) 5-7 L12 OVER 6-1 Game 4's

Braves beat Rockies, 7-4 on Monday
Rockies beat Braves, 12-3 on Tuesday

Milwaukee at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Greinke (7-3, 5.04 ERA) 7-3 L10 3-7 on Thursdays
Kennedy (10-3, 3.39 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 8-0-1 L9 on Thursdays

Diamondbacks beat Brewers, 3-0 on Monday
Brewers beat Diamondbacks, 11-3 on Tuesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE


Seattle at Toronto - 12:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Fister (3-11, 3.18 ERA) 0-10 L10 OVER 7-2 L9 away vs LHP
Romero (7-9, 3.18 ERA) 6-2 L8 1-7 L8 home during day

Blue Jays beat Mariners, 6-5 on Tuesday
Blue Jays beat Mariners, 11-6 on Wednesday

Texas at Los Angeles - 3:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wilson (10-3, 3.11 ERA) 12-0 L12 UNDER 7-2 L9 away during day
Weaver (12-4, 1.90 ERA) 5-4 L9 6-3 L9 vs LHP

Rangers beat Angels, 7-0 on Tuesday

N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sabathia (14-4, 2.64 ERA) 5-3 L8 UNDER 7-2 L9 away vs RHP
Shields (8-8, 2.60 ERA) 4-7 L11 5-1 L6 home vs LHP

Yankees beat Rays, 5-4 on Monday
Rays beat Yankees, 3-2 on Tuesday
Yankees beat Rays, 4-0 on Wednesday

Detroit at Minnesota - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Verlander (12-5, 2.29 ERA) 3-6 L9 7-2 L9 away vs division
Pavano (6-6, 4.08 ERA) 6-3 L9 7-3 L10 home vs division

Twins beat Indians, 7-5 on Wednesday

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: St. Louis at N.Y. Mets


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (50-45, -2.2 Units)

at NEW YORK METS (47-48, +4.1 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: TBD

Since winning four of their first five games on their road trip right before the All-Star break, the Mets have now lost five of six, and there is talk of an imminent fire sale coming to Queens. New York has lost three of its past four series at Citifield. The Mets should be getting back Jose Reyes, who has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring pull, and Carlos Beltran, who was out with the flu, but their offense has managed just 11 total runs in the five losses over these six games, and it might take them a few days to get back into form with Reyes and Beltran back.

After winning eight of their final 13 games before the break, the Cardinals lost two of three at Cincinnati to start the second half of the season. However, the Mets offensive problems could be the answer to the Cardinals pitching problems, as St. Louis has allowed four runs or more in five of their past eight games. The Mets have defied odds and shown fight all season, but one can almost sense the end is near for this collection of players, and in situations like this, the end always tends to be pretty ugly. Look for ST. LOUIS to win the series with perhaps Niese saving the Mets from getting swept at home.

The FoxSheets provide another trend backing the Cardinals to win the series.

N.Y. METS are 6-22 (21.4%, -16.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY METS 3.3, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 21 - 12:10 ET
Thursday line: TBD
STL: 10-9 (+1.9 Units) when Jake Westbrook starts
NYM: 11-8 (+4.90 Units) when Jon Niese starts
Westbrook (7-4, 5.26 ERA) – The Cardinals have lost his past two starts (both against the Reds) with Westbrook allowing nine runs in his 9.1 innings pitched over that span. This came after he threw his best outing of the season, holding the Rays to two hits and no runs over seven innings in a win at Tampa Bay on July 1. He is 5-2 in his 10 road starts, and has held the opposition to three runs or fewer in eight of those starts. This will be just his second career start against the Mets. He allowed five runs and 11 hits in suffering a loss against New York while pitching for Cleveland in June 2010 at Progressive Field.
Niese (9-7, 3.73 ERA) – After starting the season a bit slow, Niese has started to show why he might just be a future star in this league. He is 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA in his past 11 starts, and is coming off holding the Phillies to just two runs (one earned) and six hits over seven innings in a win at Citifield on Saturday. This will be his third career start against the Cardinals, who he is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA against. He lasted just 1.2 innings before tearing his hamstring against the Cardinals at Citifield in August of 2009, then allowed just one run on seven hits over six innings in earning a win against them at Citifield last July.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay


NEW YORK YANKEES (55-37, +5.9 Units)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (50-43, +1.1 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Tampa Bay -120, New York -110

Two teams trying to stay close in the tough AL East meet in Tampa Bay for a key four-game series when the Rays host the Yankees. Tampa Bay hasn’t won a series versus an AL opponent in over a month, dropping 2-of-3 games in four straight AL series. One of those series losses was leading up to the All-Star break when they dropped the final two contests of a three-game set against the Yankees.

This is a tight series to call with each team holding the pitching advantage in two of the four games, and these teams splitting the past 20 meetings at Tropicana Field 10-10. The Rays are just 22-23 at home this year, while New York has the third-best road record in the majors at 25-18. The winner of this series will come down to who hits better, and the Yankees are the superior offensive team. Tampa Bay also enters this series with a brutal 1-0 loss in 16 innings in Boston Sunday night, as the Rays mustered three hits (all singles), one walk and struck out 13 times in 50 at-bats before the game ended at 1:54 a.m. ET. Tampa also used eight relief pitchers in the loss to the Red Sox. The pick here is for NEW YORK to win the series.

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to side with the Pinstripes.

JOE GIRARDI is 85-54 (61.2%, +22.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season as the manager of NY YANKEES. The average score was NY YANKEES 4.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).

TAMPA BAY is 19-27 (41.3%, -12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 21 - 7:10 EDT
Thursday line: TBD
NYY: 16-5 (+8.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
TB: 12-8 (+1.35 Units) when James Shields starts
Sabathia (14-4, 2.64 ERA) has been unbelievable during a seven-start winning streak. In these seven victories, Sabathia has a 1.68 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 59 K and 10 BB in 53.2 innings. Two outings ago, on July 10, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Rays, striking out nine and walking only one. He is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA in 21 career starts versus Tampa Bay, allowing a mere .233 batting average to the Rays.
Shields (8-8, 2.60 ERA) has also been excellent this season, especially with seven complete games. But largely due to a lack of run support, he is currently suffering through a four-game losing streak. He was hit hard against Boston his last time out (6 IP, 6 ER), but he only allowed a total of six earned runs (2.57 ERA) in his previous three outings. The losing streak is likely to continue against the Yankees and Sabathia, as Shields is just 3-10 (team is 4-13) with a 4.47 ERA in 17 career starts versus New York.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Series Outlook: Texas at L.A. Angels


TEXAS RANGERS (55-41, +5.2 Units)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (51-45, +1.3 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Los Angeles -120, Texas -110

Texas has won 11 straight, and they can put even more room between themselves and the rest of the AL West when they visit the Angels for a three-game set starting Tuesday night.

But with a significant pitching advantage in two of the three games, along with a fighting chance in the other, plus home-field advantage, the money line is looking good for LOS ANGELES to win the series. The Rangers have dropped the past four series in Anaheim, with their last series win coming in August of 2009. The FoxSheets provide another trend siding with the Angels to win the series.

L.A. ANGELS are 56-39 (58.9%, +21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was L.A. ANGELS 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 21 - 3:35 ET
Thursday line: TBD
TEX: 13-7 (+4.15 Units) when C.J. Wilson starts
LAA: 13-7 (+3.65 Units) when Jered Weaver starts
Wilson (10-3, 3.11 ERA) has pitched well of late, with the Rangers winning four of his past five starts while he has posted a 3.34 ERA. The lefty has been particularly sharp on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 2.59 ERA. In his past five starts against the Angels, Wilson has posted a 1.74 ERA while the Rangers won each of those games.
Weaver (12-4, 1.90 ERA) has regained his Cy Young form. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start since June 8, and he’s 5-0 with a 1.16 ERA over his past six starts. L.A. has won six of his eight home starts this year. He split his two starts in Arlington this year, giving up five runs over 15 innings against the Rangers.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, July 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Diego - 12:10 PM ET San Diego +148 500
Florida - Over 8 500

St. Louis - 12:10 PM ET NY Mets -113 500
NY Mets - Over 8 500

Seattle - 12:37 PM ET Seattle +167 500
Toronto - Under 7.5 500

Atlanta - 3:10 PM ET Colorado -109 500
Colorado - Over 8.5 500

Texas - 3:35 PM ET LA Angels -115 500
LA Angels - Under 6.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +124 500
Tampa Bay - Under 7 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +141 500
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -110 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

WNBA will be posted later 4-0 yesterday.

[StarDust Bum]

7:00 PM ETChicago at Indiana
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
CHI 651 8-8 (1-6 V) - 145 Under
IND 652 10-6 (7-2 H) - -6 Ind

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts


10:00 PM ETSan Antonio at Seattle
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
SA 653 9-4 (5-1 V) - 146.5 Under
SEA 654 7-7 (5-1 H) - -4 San Antonio + 4

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers go for 3rd straight win in Arizona


MILWAUKEE BREWERS (53-46, +3.0 Units)

at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (52-46, +8.8 Units)


First pitch: Thursday, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -110, Milwaukee +100, Total: 8.5

The Brewers aim for their third straight win over Arizona when the two teams wrap up a four-game series on Thursday night at Chase Field. After Arizona shut out Milwaukee 3-0 on Monday, the Brew Crew answered by outscoring the D-backs 16-5 in the past two games. The series finale features a strong pitching matchup between Zack Greinke and Ian Kennedy who are a combined 17-6 this season.

The Brewers have not been a good road team this year (20-32, -11.9 Units), but they have won four of their past five away from home. With a former Cy Young Award winner on the mound in Greinke, and a stellar 8-1 record in Arizona over the past three seasons, the pick here is MILWAUKEE at even money. This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Brewers to win again on Thursday.

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ARIZONA) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. (57-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +34.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Both teams suffered major injuries in Wednesday’s 10-inning affair, as Milwaukee CF Carlos Gomez broke his left clavicle making a diving catch, and Arizona SS Stephen Drew fractured his ankle while sliding home. The Brewers best player, OF Ryan Braun, has also been hurt, playing sparingly in the past two weeks because of tightness in his calf and hamstring.

Greinke (7-3, 5.04 ERA) has certainly had his problems in his first season with Milwaukee, especially on the road where he is 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA. However, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a stellar 5.9 (107 K, 18 BB), as he has at least 9 K in eight of 14 starts this year. The Brewers are 10-4 (+5.6 Units) when Greinke takes the hill, including winning his past two outings. He has never beaten the D-backs in three career tries, but he tossed seven shutout innings the last time he pitched in Arizona in 2008.

Kennedy (10-3, 3.39 ERA) has been especially tough on right-handed hitters, allowing a paltry .208 batting average against righties. He is also escaping jams very nicely, as opponents are batting .148 in 108 at-bats with runners in scoring position. But Kennedy has been a little off his game lately, with a 5.40 ERA in his past four starts. Arizona is 13-7 with Kennedy on the mound, but only 6-5 (-0.6 Units) in home games when Kennedy starts. He did have a strong outing on Saturday, holding the Dodgers to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Kennedy made two starts against Milwaukee last year, going 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. He allowed only two runs in seven innings in May, but was touched up for four runs in six innings three months later at Miller Park.

[StarDust Bum]

Sabathia-Shields square off Thursday in Tampa Bay


NEW YORK YANKEES (57-38, +7.2 Units)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (51-45, -0.3 Units)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -140, Tampa Bay +130, Total: 9

The Yankees try to win their second straight series versus Tampa Bay in a two-week span when the teams meet for the finale of their four-game set Thursday night. New York has taken four of the past five meetings with the Rays, including a July 10 victory when CC Sabathia out-dueled James Shields in a 1-0 masterpiece. The two All-Stars will duke it out again on Thursday night.

The -140 price is a little steep for a road team, but Sabathia has been the best bet in the American League this year at +8.2 Units, leading his Yankees to a 16-5 record when he starts. On the flip side, the Rays are a mere 4-13 all-time against the Bronx Bombers when Shields takes the hill. Add in the fact that Tampa has a paltry seven runs (0 HR) and .173 BA in its past four games, and NEW YORK is the pick here.

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to side with the Yankees.

JOE GIRARDI is 24-6 (80.0%, +16.6 Units) against the money line after shutting out his opponent as the manager of N.Y. YANKEES. The average score was N.Y. YANKEES 6.1, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) – below-average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (227-114 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.6%, +66.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Sabathia (14-4, 2.64 ERA) has been unbelievable during a seven-start winning streak. In these seven victories, he has a 1.68 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 59 K and 10 BB in 53.2 innings. Two outings ago, on July 10, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Rays, striking out nine and walking only one. He is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA in 21 career starts versus Tampa Bay, allowing a miniscule .233 batting average to the Rays. B.J. Upton (.333 BA, 11-for-33) is the only current Tampa Bay hitter above .280 when facing the big lefty. Sabathia’s teams are also 76-23 (76.8%, +37.4 Units) versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game in the second half of the season in his career with an average score of 5.7 to 3.1.

Tampa Bay, which is a woeful 23-25 (-10.5 Units) at home this year, is looking to avoid its fifth straight series loss to an AL opponent. Shields (8-8, 2.60 ERA) has been excellent this season, especially with seven complete games, but largely due to a lack of run support, he is currently suffering through a four-game losing streak. He was hit hard against Boston his last time out (6 IP, 6 ER), but he only allowed a total of six earned runs (2.57 ERA) in his previous three outings. The losing streak is likely to continue against the Yankees, as Shields is just 3-10 with a 4.47 ERA in 17 career starts versus New York. However, Shields has been successful against many current Yankees. Curtis Granderson (probable, back injury) is just 3-for-37 with 12 K in his career when facing Shields. Also, Mark Teixeira is 6-for-37 with 13 K versus Shields, while Nick Swisher (5-for-23) and Brett Gardner (4-for-17) are both below .250 against him.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 21, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Rangers are 9-0 since May 12, 2010 after a loss in which they had 12+ hits and weren’t a 140+ dog for a net profit of $940.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Blue Jays are 0-10 OU since April 21, 2010 at home against AL teams and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Mariners are 0-8 since July 07, 2010 when Doug Fister starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $840 when playing against.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Braves are 8-0 (+1.9 rpg) since 2009 as a dog when seeking immediate revenge for a on-run loss in which they scored fewer than three runs.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Angels are 0-8-1 OU since August 01, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

The Rockies are 6-0 OU since May 27, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing the over.

The Braves are 6-0 OU since April 22, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing the over.