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**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:02 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Boston at Tampa Bay

BOSTON RED SOX (55-35, +4.4 Units)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (49-41, +2.5 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Tampa Bay -135, Boston +105

Let the battle for the AL East crown continue. Now that the All-Star festivities have concluded, two of the three teams in contention for the title square off as the third-place Rays host the first-place Red Sox for a three-game set. Any wins are crucial between these two teams as the Yankees lurk in second place.

Although the Red Sox came into the break surging, winning nine of their past 10, bet on the RAYS to win this series, because they will be hungry to stay in contention and have clear pitching matchup advantages in the first two games of the series. Andrew Miller and John Lackey will have a hard time keeping pace with Tampa’s 1-2 punch of David Price and James Shields, giving the third-place Rays a definite series edge.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends that favor Tampa Bay.

TAMPA BAY is 49-36 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*).

BOSTON is 14-32 (-19.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 – 7:10 EDT
Friday line: Tampa Bay -145, Boston +135, Total: 8
BOS: 4-0 (+4.00 Units) when Andrew Miller starts
TB: 11-8 (+0.65 Units) when David Price starts
The once top prospect Miller (3-0, 3.57 ERA) is in the midst of a career revival with the Red Sox who took a chance on the talented lefty. Tampa Bay is 25th in the majors with a .241 average against lefties, so the conditions are ripe for success for him. Still, bettors should be wary in this matchup with Price opposing him on the mound. Miller also has had poor K/BB numbers in his limited action this season (13 K, 11 BB), a decent indicator of future potential struggles. Advanced metrics such as his xFIP (4.59) indicate he is likely to regress as well.
In this battle of lefties, Price (8-7, 3.70 ERA) has the definite edge in talent and reliability. But, unlike the Rays, the Red Sox demolish left-handed pitching, with a .281 batting average, good for second best in baseball. Still, he is the favorable play over Miller who can have trouble finding the zone, something a potent Red Sox lineup is sure to capitalize on.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 – 4:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
BOS: 6-8 (-5.30 Units) when John Lackey starts
TB: 12-7 (+6.75 Units) when James Shields starts
Lackey (6-8, 6.84 ERA) has been an epic disappointment this season as the worst regular in the Red Sox rotation. His last start was encouraging, however, pitching 6.2 innings and allowing no earned runs on one walk with seven strikeouts could give him some much needed confidence after the break.
“Complete Game” Shields (8-7, 2.33 ERA) as he is being called these days because of his whopping seven complete games this year, has been an anchor for this Rays staff. The endurance he has shown this year is only matched in the past few years by the likes of Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, good company to be in. In his one start against the Red Sox this year, he shut them out without allowing an earned run.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 8:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
BOS: 12-5 (+6.10 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
TB: 6-4 (+2.70 Units) when Jeff Niemann starts
So much for Beckett’s (8-3, 2.27 ERA) woes of the past couple seasons. The righty ace is in the midst of a dominant season in which he has an amazing 0.95 WHIP. He has one complete game on the season, a shutout of the Rays in which he struck out six and walked none.
Niemann (4-4, 4.53 ERA) has been decent this year, but has been terrible against Boston in his career. Beware of betting on him because not only is he facing Beckett, but against the Red Sox he sports a lifetime ERA of 6.62 in four games. Beckett is definitely the play in the final game of this series.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:03 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (57-34, +11.2 Units)

at NEW YORK METS (46-45, +5.9 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Philadelphia -180, New York +140

Fire sale? The Mets haven’t gone there yet, but they began the process of unloading over the All-Star break by dealing closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers for two players to be named later. The weakened Mets bullpen takes on a surging Phillies squad that has the most divisional wins in baseball (27) and is looking to create some space between themselves and the Braves, who are 3½ games back. Remarkably, that is the largest divisional lead in baseball coming out of the All-Star break.

Play on heavily-favored PHILADELPHIA to win the series, facing a Mets team that is without three of its starting infielders (Ike Davis, Jose Reyes and David Wright) and a bullpen in flux without their flashy closer. Any pitching troubles just worsen an already rough situation for the Mets, who face a Phillies team that is hitting .289 against them this year, winning six of the nine meetings.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons in support of the Phillies.

PHILADELPHIA is 39-14 (+23.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

PHILADELPHIA is 52-25 (+22.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.8, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 – 7:10 EDT
Friday line: Philadelphia -115, New York +105, Total: 7.5
PHI: 6-2 (+4.10 Units) when Vance Worley starts
NYM: 8-10 (-1.95 Units) when R.A. Dickey starts
Worley (4-1, 2.20 ERA) is in the midst of a strong rookie campaign and is the favorable bet here especially after his blistering end to the first half. In his past three starts he completed 20 innings while only allowing one earned run. Although he has given up five runs in nine innings against the Mets so far this year, play on him, even against the hot Dickey.
Dickey (4-7, 3.80 ERA) also was strong going into the break with a 2.84 ERA in his past three starts. He has yet to face the Phillies yet this year and has good career numbers against them (2.25 ERA in four starts), but is 1-5 at home this year.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 – 4:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
PHI: 13-6 (+3.45 Units) when Cole Hamels starts
NYM: 10-8 (+3.60 Units) when Jon Niese starts
Hamels (11-4, 2.32 ERA) has been good this season and is only getting better. Batters are hitting .191 off of him in his past nine starts, a span in which he is 5-2 with a 1.54 ERA. He’s given up eight runs in 9.2 innings so far against the Mets this season, but his hot streak makes him the must-play here.
Niese (8-7, 3.88 ERA) and his swooping curve ball have caused oodles of trouble for some teams this year and Niese has gone through stretches where he has looked unhittable. He made a relief appearance before the break where he was hit hard, but in his past three starts, he has a 3.86 ERA and two wins. He’ll need to post a season-best start to beat Hamels though, in this lefty-on-lefty duel.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 1:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
PHI: 3-4 (-1.10 Units) when Kyle Kendrick starts
NYM: 6-13 (-6.20 Units) when Mike Pelfrey starts
Do you hear that? It’s the sigh of relief from the Mets who luck out this series, not having to face aces Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Still, Kendrick (4-4, 3.58 ERA) is no bum, adjusting to a role that has netted him 15 relief appearances to go along with seven starts this season. In three appearances against the Mets this year he has been strong, allowing just two runs in 8.1 innings. Those follow his career numbers, which boasts a 3.07 career ERA against the Kings of Queens. Play on him against the inconsistent Pelfrey.
Pelfrey (5-8, 4.55 ERA) was counted on to be an ace in the wake of Johan Santana’s injury, but has been far from that. The good news is he has a 3.24 ERA in his past three starts. The bad news is the Phillies generally clobber him, with 12 earned runs in 14 innings this year. More bad news is that he struggles in day games, in which he has a 6.65 ERA this season. Pelfrey is not the stopper needed on the mound potentially defending against a sweep.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:06 PM

MLB Series Outlook: St. Louis at Cincinnati

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (49-43, -1.2 Units)

at CINCINNATI REDS (45-47, -8.6 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Cincinnati -135, St. Louis +105

It doesn’t get closer than the NL Central, which has four teams within four games of each other. The Cardinals and Reds represent the front and back end of those respectively, with each team looking to make up some divisional ground. This series could have a huge impact on how the Reds approach the trade deadline, because if they lose two of three they could slip out of the race and consider selling off pieces to build for the future, because they already have a nice core to center it around.

Play on ST. LOUIS to win the series, because even though Cueto outclasses Westbrook in game one of the series, Arroyo and Bailey bring no confidence to a bettor given their rough stretches entering the All-Star break, something an opportunistic Cardinals lineup will be able to exploit.

This FoxSheets team trend also sides with the Reds.

CINCINNATI is 8-23 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 3.6, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 – 7:10 EDT
Friday line: Cincinnati -150, St. Louis +140, Total: 8.5
STL: 10-0 (+2.90 Units) when Jake Westbrook starts
CIN: 7-5 (+1.40 Units) when Johnny Cueto starts
Westbrook (7-4, 5.34 ERA) has never had overpowering stuff, but has been a decent innings man throughout his career. This year though, he has been getting shelled for the Cardinals and is a definite weak spot in their rotation that the Reds should exploit. His 1.4 K:BB ratio (52 K, 40 BB) is atrocious and his 6.32 ERA over his past three games isn’t a sign of encouragement for the future. Play against Westbrook Friday.
Cueto (5-3, 1.96 ERA) is the opposite – he has been inconsistent throughout his career, but is finally putting it all together. He has allowed just one earned run in 15.2 innings against the Cardinals this year, yielding only nine hits in that span. It’s difficult to bet against him the way he’s pitching.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 – 7:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
STL: 8-11 (-7.90 Units) when Chris Carpenter starts
CIN: 9-9 (-2.45 Units) when Bronson Arroyo starts
No pitcher has had the Reds’ number for an extended period of time the way Carpenter (4-7, 3.85 ERA) has. In 21 career games against them he has a 13-4 record with a miniscule 2.29 ERA. And in those starts he’s fanned 134 while only walking 24. His season thus far has subpar for his standards, but there is no opponent he’d rather to see to kick off the second half than the divisional foes from Cincinnati.
Few pitchers needed the All-Star break as badly as Arroyo (7-7, 5.58 ERA) did. He finished the first half of the year with a 9.35 ERA in his last three starts, allowing five or more runs in each of them. The scariest number is the alarming rate at which he is surrendering homers: he has allowed 25 already this year, when his career high is 31. Cardinals hitters must be licking their chops in this matchup.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 1:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
STL: 12-7 (+3.45 Units) when Jaime Garcia starts
CIN: 3-5 (-2.60 Units) when Homer Bailey starts
Garcia (9-3, 3.32 ERA) is following up his strong freshman campaign with another good one this season, and has probably been the most reliable starter on the Cardinals staff this year. The bad news for the lefty is that he is in fact a lefty. The Reds are first in baseball with a .292 batting average against southpaws, 10 points higher than the next team. Their .836 OPS against lefties is also tops in the league, by 16 points. That said, Garcia allowed one run over six innings in a win his one time out against the Reds this year, so maybe he is a rare lefty who has figured them out.
Bailey (3-4, 4.13 ERA) comes into the break 0-3 in his past three starts, giving up 12 earned runs in that span. Like Arroyo, he needed time to clear his head over the break. With the Reds’ success against lefties, this could turn out to be an offensive showdown, given that the Cardinals have tagged him for a 1-4 record and 23 earned runs in 34.1 career innings against him.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:06 PM

MLB Series Outlook: N.Y. Yankees at Toronto

NEW YORK YANKEES (53-35, +6.4 Units)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (45-47, -0.4 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -150, Toronto +120

The Yankees kick off their second half of the season by heading north of the border, visiting their division rival Toronto Blue Jays for a four-game series. New York is attempting to climb atop the AL East where it currently sits two wins, though zero losses, behind the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees will play this series without star third baseman Alex Rodriguez who just underwent knee surgery. In addition, the Yankees will be without the “DJ3K” hype that has engulfed the team over the past couple weeks, as Derek Jeter hit his 3,000th hit in dramatic fashion prior to the break, nailing a home run over the left field wall in Yankee Stadium.

Play on NEW YORK to win this series, as the Yankees are always one of the best second half-teams in baseball while the Blue Jays tend to struggle post-All-Star break. The Bronx Bombers always seem to find extra life down the stretch, and there is no better way to start that than by beating on a weaker, divisional opponent.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Pinstripes.

NY YANKEES are 26-12 (68.4%, +11.0 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 0*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 14 - 7:07 EDT
Thursday line: New York -145, Toronto +135, Total: 9.5
NYY: 8-4 (+2.40 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
TOR: 8-10 (-1.65 Units) when Jo-Jo Reyes starts
The Yankees picked Colon (6-4, 3.20 ERA) off the scrap heap this winter and it’s been an unquestionable steal. He was hit hard his last time out, yielding five earned runs in 5.2 innings, but has been good overall lately, with four scoreless starts in his past seven outings. This is one game the Blue Jays could get their bats going, however, because they have hit him well in his two games against them this season. In 12.2 innings against the birds from up north he has a 1-1 record with a 5.68 ERA. The Jays tagged him for six runs in six innings on May 23 in New York.
Unlike Colon, Reyes (4-7, 4.57 ERA) is coming off a very good start, in which he did not allow an earned run in 5.2 innings at Cleveland. Still, he always feels like a dangerous play because of his inability to strike batters out at a decent clip. In his past three games he has walked six and fanned only five. In his lone career appearance against the Yankees on May 25 this season, he allowed five runs (2 HR) in three innings.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 - 7:07 EDT
Friday line: TBD
NYY: 8-7 (-1.00 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
TOR: 9-6 (+2.40 Units) when Brandon Morrow starts
Another pick off the bargain bin, Garcia (7-6, 3.13 ERA) has also been good for the Yankees this year when they’ve needed him to step up. He’s 1-1 against the Blue Jays in two starts, but is on a hot streak, posting a 1.35 ERA over his past three starts, spanning 20 innings. The key for him is keeping the ball in the strike zone, because he doesn’t have the stuff to strike people out (only six strikeouts in those 20 innings), but yielded only one walk in that span. In his career, he has a 5.93 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 88 innings against Toronto, which has batted .365 the past three times it has faced Garcia.
The former closer Morrow (5-4, 4.60 ERA) is intimidating on the mound with 10.64 K per 9 IP, by far the highest on the Blue Jays staff. He has a 5.19 career ERA against the Yankees, but has still shown the ability to miss their bats with 54 whiffs in 43.1 innings. In many ways, Morrow (young and hard-throwing) is the opposite of Garcia (veteran and crafty), so this should be a fascinating matchup.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 - 1:07 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
NYY: 15-5 (+7.20 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
TOR: 7-11 (-5.45 Units) when Ricky Romero starts
A true ace, Sabathia (13-4, 2.72 ERA) is in one of those stretches where he just makes a manager’s life easier. He has not allowed an earned run in his past 23.2 innings, accounting for his past three starts. In the last one, he put the team on his back for a 1-0 victory, throwing a four-hit shutout with 9 K versus Tampa Bay. He is tough to play against here, especially with a 10-3 career record (3.19 ERA) against the Blue Jays.
Romero (7-8, 3.09 ERA) has struggled to reach the win column this season even if he has pitched pretty well. Two of his best starts were against the Bombers; he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two meetings against them this season. Be wary though, because in his career his second-half ERA is nearly a point-and-a-half higher than it is during the first half.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 7:07 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
NYY: 1-3 (-2.70 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
TOR: 6-3 (+4.25 Units) when Carlos Villanueva starts
Hughes (0-2, 10.57 ERA) had his first decent start of the season his last time out, allowing two earned runs in five innings, which was a good sign after his miserable three outings in April before landing on the DL. He hasn’t been able to go deeper than five innings in any of his four starts, and has walked six while only striking out five. But, if he can figure out his curveball, he can return to elite form. Toronto hit him hard last year, tagging him with a 7.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in four starts against the Jays.
Villanueva (5-1, 2.99 ERA) has been one of the Blue Jays best starters this season and has the lowest WHIP on their staff at 1.20. If he can keep those hits and walks in check against the Yankees, like he has done against all teams this season, he should be in good shape for a win against the struggling Hughes.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:07 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Texas at Seattle

TEXAS RANGERS (51-41, +1.2 Units)

at SEATTLE MARINERS (43-48, -4.8 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Texas -115, Seattle -115

The Rangers are in first place in the AL West, but are in no position to take their foot of the gas in the second half, sitting only one game ahead of the Angels. The Mariners aren’t completely out of the conversation yet (7½ GB), but need to start taking games from the top two teams if they want to really make it into the divisional contenders conversation. The way these two teams perform over the next few series will be instrumental in what the teams eventually decide to do at the deadline, in terms of buying, selling or staying put.

With Texas closing out the first half with a seven-game win streak and Seattle scoring a pathetic nine total runs during its current five-game losing skid, the pick here is TEXAS to win the series with the exact same -115 odds the Mariners are getting.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons for liking the Rangers.

SEATTLE is 5-21 (19.2%, -16.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 2.5, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*).

TEXAS is 36-24 (60.0%, +13.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 14 - 10:10 EDT
Thursday line: Texas -120, Seattle +110, Total: 7
TEX: 9-9 (-1.80 Units) when Derek Holland starts
SEA: 9-9 (+2.05 Units) when Jason Vargas starts
Holland (7-4, 4.68 ERA) comes out of the break after his best start of the year, throwing a four-hit shutout with 7 K against Oakland. He is the one sleeper play for the Rangers this series, faring dramatically better on the road (3.72 ERA) compared to home (5.67 ERA).
Vargas (6-6, 3.49 ERA), like Holland, is coming off a great start in which he allowed two earned runs in eight innings. Although he has lost two of his past three outings, he has a 2.35 ERA in that span and is a tough lefty to face. He allowed only one run in 7.2 innings earlier this year against the Rangers.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 – 10:10 EDT
Friday line: TBD
TEX: 9-9 (-3.50 Units) when Colby Lewis starts
SEA: 5-13 (-7.05 Units) when Doug Fister starts
Lewis (8-7, 4.38 ERA) has been unremarkable this year, giving the Rangers a chance to win when they get their bats going, but rarely going out and dominating. He’s 4-4 with a 3.69 ERA in his career against the Mariners. He has also pitched much better on the road this year (3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Fister (3-10, 3.09 ERA) has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the baseball, giving up very few runs, but getting even fewer wins to show for it. He’s great at home with a 2.82 ERA and should be the play, considering he has pitched quite well and is bound to get some run support eventually.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 – 10:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
TEX: 12-7 (+3.15 Units) when C.J. Wilson starts
SEA: 11-9 (-0.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
The converted closer Wilson (9-3, 3.20 ERA) is having a strong year in the rotation, perhaps the most reliable on the Texas staff. The Mariners have had trouble hitting him this season, going winless in both of their starts against him in which he allowed just three earned runs and a .211 BA in 16 innings combined. Unfortunately, he draws a tough matchup with Seattle’s ace.
“King” Felix Hernandez (8-7, 3.19 ERA) takes the hill for the Mariners in what should be a great pitching matchup against Wilson. He lost his one start against the Rangers this year despite pitching well (2 ER, 6 K in 7 IP), and is a favorable play with a higher winning percentage (.571) and lower ERA (3.08) after the All-Star break during his career.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 4:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
TEX: 9-8 (+0.30 Units) when Matt Harrison starts
SEA: 1-1 (+0.15 Units) when Blake Beavan starts
Harrison (7-7, 3.04 ERA) had a good first half, despite posting a shaky K/BB ratio, at 1.78 (66 K, 37 BB). The lefty has been strong lifetime against the Mariners, with a 3.19 ERA, and is coming off 7.2 scoreless innings his last start before the break. Seattle ranks 27th in baseball with a .238 average against lefties, which is actually better than its .219 BA against right-handed pitching.
The 22-year-old rookie Beavan (1-0, 2.03 ERA) has done well early in his MLB career, allowing just three earned runs in his two starts. If he can keep up his accuracy – only two walks in those 13.1 innings – the Irving, TX native should be able to continue his success against the Rangers.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:10 PM

MLB Series Outlook: Milwaukee at Colorado

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (49-43, +1.8 Units)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (43-48, -18.0 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Colorado -160, Milwaukee +130

The Brewers are all-in, they made that clear over this All-Star break. After trading top prospects this winter for starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Brewers continued their push to the playoffs by adding reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets in exchange for two players to be named later, minor leaguers. The Brewers currently sit tied atop a close NL Central along with the Cardinals, while the Pirates (1 GB) and Reds (4 GB) are still in the hunt. The Rockies, on the other hand, are 8½ games off the NL West lead and will need a blazing start out of the break if they want to compete with division leader San Francisco down the stretch.

Underdog MILWAUKEE is the favorable play for this series, with this new shot of energy in a bullpen that was a weak point for the team (12-20, 3.92 ERA). The Brewers must know that this year is do-or-die and there will be a sense of urgency within the team to kick off the second half strong.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends supporting the Brewers.

MILWAUKEE is 32-21 (60.4%, +11.1 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.5, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*).

COLORADO is 22-34 (39.3%, -21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.6, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Thursday, July 14 - 8:40 EDT
Thursday line: Colorado -135, Milwaukee +125, Total: 8.5
MIL: 11-8 (+0.95 Units) when Yovani Gallardo starts
COL: 5-12 (-12.65 Units) when Ubaldo Jimenez starts
Gallardo (10-5, 3.76 ERA) comes into the break on a high note having allowed just one run in his last start and a 2.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his past three starts. That said, he is winless against the Rockies in his career (0-3, 5.85 ERA), and hasn’t been as good on the road (3-4, 4.29 ERA). Still, he is a better pick than the wildly inconsistent Jimenez.
Jimenez (4-8, 4.14 ERA) is in the middle of a tough year for the Rockies in which he has had trouble finding the strike zone, with 41 walks in 104.1 innings. He is an elite talent, however, and showed signs of turning it around coming into the break, allowing only one run and one walk through eight innings in his last start at Washington which he won. That gave him eight straight starts of allowing three or fewer runs (2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). As long as he can stay in the strike zone he is a good play, but whether or not he can do that on a given day is suspect.

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 15 – 8:40 EDT
Friday line: TBD
MIL: 9-9 (-0.85 Units) when Chris Narveson starts
COL: 5-3 (+2.10 Units) when Juan Nicasio starts
Narveson (6-5, 4.75 ERA) has been unspectacular for the Brew Crew this season, a weak link in their rotation. The news hasn’t been getting better, with a 5.71 ERA in his past three starts, and a 5.72 ERA on the road this year. Fortunately he draws a favorable matchup against a struggling Nicasio.
Nicasio (3-2, 4.91 ERA) was rocked his last time out, not lasting even three innings. The good news is he has been fantastic at Coors Field, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 26 innings. But he’ll have to take the Rockies further than he has recently (20 IP in past four starts), if he wants to give his team any hope at competing on Friday.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 16 – 8:10 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
MIL: 9-4 (+4.55 Units) when Zack Greinke starts
COL: 10-8 (-1.15 Units) when Jhoulys Chacin starts
After trading top prospects for Greinke (7-3, 5.45 ERA), Milwaukee has been disappointed by the former Cy Young Award winner’s inflated ERA. However, the righty has seven wins and a great K/BB ratio, and advanced metrics such as BABIP and LOB% indicate he is due to improve, making him a favorable play over the long run. The Rockies tabbed him for four runs in six innings earlier this season and are batting .361 (26-for-72) versus Greinke in his career.
Chacin (8-7, 3.16 ERA) has been strong this season despite walking 50 men already. He has never faced Milwaukee, but will pose a tough matchup for the potent Brewers’ lineup, with a 2.47 home ERA. Look out for a good pitcher’s duel in this game.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 17 - 3:10 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
MIL: 8-11 (-4.85 Units) when Shaun Marcum starts
COL: 1-5 (-4.65 Units) when Aaron Cook starts
Marcum (7-3, 3.39 ERA) has been the victim of poor run support this season because even though he has great numbers, the Brewers have only won 8 of his 19 starts this year. He allowed only one run in eight innings against the Rockies earlier in the season, and could be due for a big second half.
The veteran Cook (0-4, 5.82 ERA) is having a miserable season thus far and is always a dangerous bet. Although he has good career numbers against Milwaukee (6-3, 3.13 ERA), he still can’t be trusted. In his last start at Atlanta, he allowed seven earned runs and 10 hits in just five innings.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:12 PM

LA Dodgers In MLB Odds Fight At Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks (49-43) are just three games back in the race for the National League West Division crown while the cash-strapped Los Angeles Dodgers (41-51) have a lot more work to do on a very limited budget.

Both teams are chasing the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants as they open a three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday. Game time is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. (PT).

The Diamondbacks just finished hosting the All-Star Game on Tuesday and have struggled against NL West opponents this season with a 12-14 record. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 15-15 vs. divisional foes and ride a four-game winning streak into Chase despite the fact that owner Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy at the end of June.

Los Angeles starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (9-4, 3.03 ERA) has grown into the role of ace this year and was rewarded by making his first All-Star appearance. The lefty from Dallas pitched one hitless and scoreless inning in the Midsummer Classic, notching one strikeout with no walks in a 5-1 win for the National League.

Kershaw has dominated Arizona during his four-year career with a 4-1 mark and 2.23 ERA in seven starts. He also won three of his last four starts before the All-Star break, averaging one walk and more than 10 strikeouts during that stretch. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in his past five outings after the ‘over’ cashed in each of his previous six.

The Diamondbacks have fared well in the past 10 starts for their starting pitcher Joe Saunders (6-7, 3.86), who has also won in three of his last four trips to the mound. Saunders has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his past 10 outings with Arizona winning all seven of them.

Even more remarkable though is the fact that Saunders has won five of those games as an underdog, including the last three. The southpaw has pitched at home only once since June 4, doing most of his damage for the Diamondbacks on the road. He owns a 2-3 record at Chase with a 4.94 ERA.

The team will be playing its first home game since June 29 after returning from a 10-game road trip.

Saunders has also struggled a bit against LA during his career with a 1-3 mark and 3.62 ERA in six starts. The Dodgers are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings overall and 9-4 in the past 13 at Arizona.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:12 PM

Chicago White Sox Travel To Face Detroit Tigers

The American League Central-leading Detroit Tigers (49-43, +2.01) have captured five of the first six meetings with the Chicago White Sox (44-48, -8.46) this year. Both teams come off the All-Star break to open up a three-game series at Comerica Park with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT) Friday.

Detroit opens a five-game homestand against division rivals after completing a 4-3 road trip before the Midsummer Classic. The Tigers were well-represented in the All-Star Game, with four players selected, including Friday’s starting pitcher.

Justin Verlander (12-4, 2.15 ERA) was a spectator on Tuesday night in Phoenix due to picking up a 2-1 road win over the Kansas City Royals Sunday. The right-hander allowed just a single run (zero earned) and six hits in 7 2/3 innings of work.

The Cy Young-candidate has been superb at home, posting a dominating 7-2 mark and 2.20 ERA, as opponents are hitting just .191 against him. He has also issued just 18 walks and registered 82 strikeouts in 81 2/3 frames at Comerica Park.

He has had his struggles versus the White Sox, entering with an even 9-9 record and 4.39 ERA, but is a perfect 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two outings this year. Verlander has shut down White Sox All-Star first baseman Paul Konerko, limiting him to a .122 batting average in 41 plate appearances. He hasn’t fared so well against catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who has gone 17-for-56 (.304) with three home runs and 12 RBIs against him.

Chicago has dropped five of its last six games, ending a seven-game stay at U.S. Cellular Field with a 2-5 mark. It’s unchartered territory in the clubhouse for a squad that entered the All-Star break below .500 for the first time since 2007.

The White Sox still have plenty of time to make a move in the division, as they are currently playing their eighth game in a stretch of 19 consecutive contests versus AL Central opponents. Unfortunately, the team enters with a losing 8-16 record against such foes.

Right-hander Gavin Floyd (6-9, 4.59 ERA) draws the series-opening assignment and will be looking to break a four-game losing streak. Chicago has actually fallen in defeat in his last six starts, as he’s received just 16 runs of support over that span. Floyd has been solid at times on the road, posting a 4-5 record and 3.60 ERA, surrendering just six home runs in 70 innings.

Those numbers could improve due to a 3-1 mark and 4.10 ERA in seven lifetime starts at Comerica venue. The former first-round selection has fared well in facing Tigers star Miguel Cabrera, limiting him to six hits in 29 at-bats.

Bettors will definitely face a tough decision in this matchup, as the Tigers are 7-0 in Verlander’s last seven starts in this series, while Floyd has led the White Sox to victory in eight of 11 meetings.

Weather forecasts suggest sunny skies in the Detroit area with game-time highs in the low-80s. The wind is expected to be out of the east at 5-10 mph (in from left). The ‘under’ is 8-6 in those conditions the past two years.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:14 PM

St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview

Division foes will begin a 3-game series on Friday in their first action following the All-Star break when the St. Louis Cardinals travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds. The first pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. (PT).

The NL Central standings have become a bit tight with the Reds (45-47) in fourth place but only four games back of both the Cardinals (49-43) and Milwaukee Brewers.

Jake Westbrook (7-4, 5.34 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis and his last start was at home against these Reds. It was not pretty for the right-hander on July 6 when he gave up seven earned runs in just over four innings pitched. He did throw well in his other start against Cincy, though, which the Cards won in a shutout. This will be his first start against the Reds on the road this year.

Overall it appears Westbrook has been average at best this year. He had a 5-game streak of surrendering three runs or less, but out of his 18 starts this season he has pitched seven or more innings only four times. He has definitely experienced more success on the road going 5-2 away from Busch Stadium with the team recording a 6-3 mark in those starts.

Offensively, St. Louis is still at the top of the rankings in the major leagues. They can certainly score runs and they may have to if their starter gets torched like the last time these teams met.

Albert Pujols is back from his injury, of course, and has been batting .300 since his return.

For the home team, Johnny Cueto (5-3, 1.96 ERA) will be on the mound and he has not given up more than three runs in a game in 12 outings this year. In his last start against the Cards he only gave up one run, but the Reds were shut out by Chris Carpenter and company.

In fact, for as well as Cueto has pitched this year the team is only 7-5 in his starts. June 22nd was his last victory, a 10-2 triumph over the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati’s offense is in the upper third of the league led by first baseman Joey Votto. Votto is batting .324 and has 55 RBIs on the season. Jay Bruce leads the team with both 57 RBIs and 21 homers.

Just about every trend between these two clubs leans toward the ‘over’ but keep in mind how Westbrook plays better on the road and that three runs or less for Cueto is almost a given. With that said, the ‘over’ is 5-2-1 in Westbrook’s last eight games overall and in Cueto’s last five home starts against the Cards the ‘over’ is 5-0.

Weather should not be much of a factor as the temperature will be 81 degrees with low winds.

**tech fan** · 07-15-2011, 07:16 PM

Good luck buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:16 PM

Milwaukee Brewers Start Long Trip In Colorado

Two of the younger and more exciting teams in Major League Baseball come out of the All-Star break and get set to play a four-game series at Coors Field. The first pitch in Game 1 between the Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies is scheduled for 5:40 (PT) Thursday night in Denver.

Milwaukee (49-43, +1.62) finished its latest homestand with a 4-3 record and now ventures out for a season-long 11-game road trip. This stretch that ends in San Francisco on July 24 will go a long way in determining the club’s ability to stay atop the National League Central Division where the club is tied with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Brewers were well represented in the 82nd All-Star Game and first baseman Prince Fielder was named Most Valuable Player. He lifted a three-run homer just over the center field wall off Texas pitcher C.J. Wilson, which was the biggest play in the National League’s 5-1 victory.

The current co-leaders in the division were not done for the night, trading for New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez just 30 minutes after Tuesday's contest. The right-hander was 23-for-26 in save situations with a 3.16 ERA in the first half of this season and should improve a bullpen that ranks 20th in the majors with a 3.92 ERA.

Yovani Gallardo (10-5, 3.76 ERA) is set to make his 20th start of the season and has alternated wins and losses over his last four outings. He comes in off a 3-1 home win against the Diamondbacks, giving up just a single run and four hits over seven frames.

Gallardo has not fared well in his career versus the Rockies, entering with an 0-3 record and 5.85 ERA, including an 0-1 mark and 9.19 ERA in three starts at Coors Field. Due to those lackluster numbers against tonight’s opponent, the ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in Gallardo’s last five appearances in the series.

He will need to be careful with Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who has five hits in 11 career at-bats against him, but may be limited due to a wrist injury that required a cortisone shot Wednesday.

Colorado (43-48, -17.38 units) has cost bettors a ton of money during the 2011 campaign and begins the series 8.5-games back in the NL West standings. The Rockies were swept in a three-game series by the Brewers earlier this year at Miller Park, outscored by a combined margin of 13-9, as each outcome was determined by two runs or less.

Right-handed starter Ubaldo Jimenez (4-8, 4.14) earned a 2-1 road victory over the Nationals just five days ago, but has yet to get on track in front of the home faithful. He has registered a losing 1-5 record and 6.24 ERA in nine outings in Denver, as opponents are hitting .319 against him.

Jimenez has tallied a 2-1 mark and 2.57 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Brewers, surrendering just two home runs in 35 frames. He suffered a 3-1 road defeat against them on May 22, giving up just three runs (two earned) and scattering two hits over eight strong innings.

Total bettors will find that the ‘over’ is 6-2-1 in Jimenez’s last nine home starts, but the last two have failed to climb above the number.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the low 80s and a thirty percent chance of isolated thunderstorms. A swirling wind of 5-10 mph will also be present throughout the contest.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:17 PM

Minnesota Lynx Visit Streaking Indiana Fever

Two of the top teams in WNBA betting action this season meet up at Conseco Fieldhouse on Friday, July 15 at 4:00 p.m. (PT), as the Indiana Fever play host to the Minnesota Lynx.

If you want to catch the battle of the teams in first place in their respective conferences, be sure to check out WNBA Access, which will have coverage of the game.

To say that Indiana is streaking right now is a bit of an understatement. Coming into Wednesday's clash with the Connecticut Sun, they have won six straight games (including one against this Minnesota team), and have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS to show for it as well. Indiana has played absolutely amazing defense in this stretch as well, holding three of the six teams to 70 points or fewer.

The Fever rank No. 3 in the WNBA in scoring defense at 73.5 PPG, and teams are only shooting 41.6 percent from the field against them, No. 2 in the league.

Offensively, things are revolving around the red hot Katie Douglas. She has been a sharpshooter from beyond the arc all season long, shooting 49.2 percent. Douglas might only be averaging just over 29 minutes per game, but she is the team's top scorer at 16.1 PPG.

Both Tamika Catchings and Jessica Davenport have done their share as well. Catchings is doing a little bit of everything as always for Indiana, accounting for 13.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 4.0 APG, while Davenport has come up with 12.2 PPG and is averaging 2.2 BPG defensively.

On the other end of the court, Minnesota has really caught some fire offensively right now, scoring 101 against the Tulsa Shock and 90 against the aforementioned Sun in its last two games. If this team can keep the offensive firepower up, the defense is certainly good enough to carry the team the rest of the way to victories.

The Lynx rank No. 2 in the WNBA at 72.0 PPG allowed, and teams are shooting a league-worst 39.1 percent against them as well. Combine that with an offense that is putting up 81.0 PPG, and you've got the makings of a real WNBA title contender.

Rookie Maya Moore really has made the difference for this team, as expected. The former Connecticut Huskies leader is tied for the team lead in scoring at 14.5 PPG, joining veteran Seimone Augustus.

The real bulk of this squad though, comes on the inside, where Rebekkah Brunson has been as dominant as could be. She is averaging 12.1 PPG and 11.5 RPG this year, making her one of just two players that is averaging a double-double per game (the other being Connecticut's Tina Charles).

Of course, we can't forget about Lindsay Whalen either. Whalen signed with the Lynx last season and had an immediate impact, but now that she has some more help at her disposal, she is all the more dangerous. If Whalen can get that ugly 27.3 percent shooting percentage from long range up, she'll be able to average even more than the 13.1 PPG that she is putting up right now.

These two teams have been fairly level in their series history dating back to 2001. Indiana holds a 12-8 advantage SU, but Minnesota has the slender 10-9-1 ATS edge.

WNBA bettors will remember their clash back on June 26. The Lynx were 7 1/2-point favorites as hosts, but they were knocked off by the Fever 78-75.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:21 PM

Montreal Favored By 10 At Toronto Argonauts

The Toronto Argonauts (1-1) and Montreal Alouettes (2-0) face off in Week 3 of the Canadian Football League season and Friday’s game will be televised on TSN at 4:30 p.m. (PST).

Toronto lost its first game of 2011 by dropping a 22-16 contest to the Winnipeg Bombers last Friday. The Argonauts were 2-0-0 in the preseason and won their season opener in Calgary on July 1.

The Argos will be playing three straight road games for the first time in club history and have moved to a double-digit underdog for the first time this season with Montreal favored by 10 and Friday's total at 53. Toronto is 1-1 ATS thus far in 2011 and will be getting points for a third consecutive week.

Head coach Jim Barker’s career record is now an even 19-19 SU, including wins in four of his last five games away from home. It’s hard to imagine a straight-up victory for the underdogs in this contest, especially due to running back Cory Boyd expected to miss at least two weeks with a knee injury. He has become an instrumental part of the offense and has recorded seven career 100-yard efforts in just 17 games.

Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo currently leads the CFL with 731 passing yards and has been instrumental in leading the team to 69 combined points in the first two weeks. The 39-year-old passer also tied Damon Allen’s league record of 394 touchdown passes by throwing for five scores in a 39-25 win over Saskatchewan last Saturday.

Calvillo’s latest masterpiece was honored by the league in naming him the CFL’s Offensive Player of the Week. It marked the second consecutive week that an Alouettes’ player earned that distinction, as receiver Jamel Richardson grabbed nine balls for 162 yards in Week 1's 30-26 home triumph against the BC Lions.

Due to the explosive numbers above from Montreal’s offense, total players will likely expect a shootout, but it must be stated that the ‘under’ is 10-2 in the Argonauts last 12 games overall. It’s important to point out that the two games that went ‘over’ in that span came against the Alouettes.

Sometimes in the game of sports handicapping, picking the winner will often suffice in covering the spread, which is certainly the case in this series. In the last 10 meetings, the SU winner has gone on to cover the spread each time. Montreal is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as host, but dropped a 30-4 contest at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium on November 7, 2010.

The Alouettes gained revenge from that disappointing effort with a 48-17 blowout win just two weeks later.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the low-70s and light winds out of the southwest.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2011, 07:24 PM

CFL Betting Notes - Week 3

July 13, 2011

The 2011 CFL regular season is off to a bit of a surprising start given that the two teams that did not make the playoffs last season are a combined 4-0 through the first two weeks of the year. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who won a total of four games last year, beat Toronto 22-16 on Friday night as one-point home favorites and the Edmonton Eskimos knocked off the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28-10 as 1 ½- point home favorites on Saturday. In other action, Calgary outlasted British Columbia 34-32 as a 2 1/2-point road underdog on Friday, while Montreal rolled over Saskatchewan 39-25 as a three-point road favorite on Saturday.

The following is brief preview of this week’s CFL games along with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.

Thursday, July 14

Calgary Stampeders (-3) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers Over/Under: 52.5

Calgary has won three of the last four meetings in this series straight up, but Winnipeg is 3-0-1 against the spread over this span. Last season, the Stampeders won 23-20 in late July as a 6 1/2-point home favorite in a game that stayed ‘under’ the 55-point total. Later in the season, they squeaked out another tight win with a 35-32 victory as a three-point road favorite. The total went ‘over’ easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 53.

Calgary has yet to cover the spread in its last five trips to Winnipeg and last year’s victory at Canad Inns Stadium was its first SU win there in its last five tries. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the last six games in this series. Blue Bomber quarterback Buck Pierce redeemed himself last week with a 61.7 completion rate after going just 12-for-26 in Week 1.

Friday, July 15

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-10) Over/Under: 53

These two longtime rivals split their four regular season games last season both SU and ATS, with each winning once on the road and once at home. The last time they faced one another was in the CFL Division Finals with the Alouettes rolling to a 48-17 victory as 10 ½-point home favorites. The total went ‘over’ in three of the five games last year.

The Argonauts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Montreal and just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last nine games between the pair. Alouette quarterback Anthony Calvillo had another strong outing last week; completing 29-of-43 attempts for 419 yards and five touchdowns. He is now tied with Damon Allen as the all-time CFL leader in touchdown passes with 394.

Saturday, July 16

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-2.5) Over/Under: 51.5

Saskatchewan swept the two-game series with Hamilton last season. It won 37-24 as an eight-point home favorite in Week 5 and then hammered out a 32-25 victory in Week 13 as a 1 1/2-point road underdog. The total went ‘over’ in both affairs.

The Roughriders have pretty much owned this series over the past few seasons with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings and an 8-2 mark ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the last 12 meetings in Hamilton. Both teams come into this game with a number of players on the injured list including WR Rob Bagg for Saskatchewan and WR Aaron Kelly for the Tiger Cats.

British Columbia Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (2.5) Over/Under: 54.5

BC split the two games in Edmonton last season with a 25-10 victory as a four-point road underdog on opening day and a 28-25 loss in Week 5 as a two-point road dog. The Eskimos won the rubber match in mid-October with a 31-28 overtime victory as a six-point road underdog.

The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Commonwealth Stadium. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last six meetings there and in six of the last seven games overall. BC defensive back Stanley Franks was lost for the season after dislocating his knee in the loss to Calgary. Edmonton slotback Fred Stamps has rushed for 212 yards so far on just 10 carries.

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