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**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 12:46 PM

Yankees, Blue Jays Open Second Half MLB Betting

The New York Yankees (53-35) begin play after the All-Star break on the road with the opener of a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (45-47) on Thursday at the Rogers Centre. Game time is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. (PT).

The Yankees find themselves one game behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East standings and hope the continued strong play of their captain since his return will keep them in the running for the postseason. New York shortstop Derek Jeter became just the 28th MLB player ever – and first in team history – to reach 3,000 hits on Saturday with a home run as part of a remarkable 5-for-5 performance, and then he skipped the All-Star Game on Tuesday to rest.

Jeter had missed roughly three weeks with a calf injury before returning to action on July 4, and he was criticized by some for not participating in the Midsummer Classic. With the hoopla regarding when he will get the historic hit finally over, the Yankees must now focus on catching the Red Sox even though they hold a five-game lead in the Wild Card standings.

One of the keys to New York’s impressive run before the break was starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (6-4, 3.20 ERA), who has made a successful comeback of his own following controversial elbow surgery in the offseason. Colon did not pitch at all last year due to elbow problems but was injected with stem cells as part of his surgery in the Dominican Republic, where steroids and human growth hormone (HGH) are legal.

Despite being one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, Colon is coming off arguably his worst outing of the year in a 5-1 loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday as a heavy 190 favorite. He struggled with his control against the Rays, walking a batter in each of the first four innings after issuing just 15 walks in his 11 starts combined.

He also served up two home runs after giving up only one in his previous four outings. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of his last five starts along with seven of eight.

The Blue Jays will counter on the mound with Jo-Jo Reyes (4-7, 4.57), who won his last start as a +105 underdog but has not pitched well in his last three outings at home. Reyes got the decision in an 11-7 victory at Cleveland on Friday, failing to allow a run in 5 2/3 innings with three walks and no strikeouts.

The southpaw is just four starts away from setting a career high but already has more wins than he has had in any of his previous four seasons, all spent with the Atlanta Braves.

However, Reyes is only 1-3 in eight home starts with a 5.29 ERA, surrendering 14 runs and 25 hits in his last 16 innings there. He gave up five runs to the Yankees in three innings of a 7-3 road loss back on May 25. The ‘over’ has cashed in his last three outings after going ‘under’ in three straight.

The ‘under’ is 10-3 in Toronto’s last 13 games following a win and 12-3-1 in New York’s past 16 road games. The ‘under’ is also 8-2-1 in the last 11 games for the Yankees overall.

Thursday’s weather forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with a high temperature of 81 degrees.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 12:52 PM

Winnipeg Blue Bombers Entertain Calgary Stampeders

Kick off the third week of CFL betting action with another great tussle on the gridiron at Canad Inns Stadium. The surprising Winnipeg Blue Bombers will look to keep their undefeated record intact on Thursday, July 14 when they take on the Calgary Stampeders.

This midweek kickoff is slated for 5:00 p.m. (PT), and live television coverage can be found on TSN.

This is the second straight road test for the Stamps, who just barely survived last week with a 34-32 win at Empire Field against the BC Lions. Head coach John Hufnagel had to be very, very frustrated with his offense in the first half against the Leos, as Calgary only accounted for one major, and that came just 19 ticks before intermission.

It marked the second straight week in which the Stampeders have really gotten off to a slow start. In fact, in the first quarter this season, they only have a grand total of four points scored, and in the first half, they only have a total of 12.

Needless to say, for a team that ranked No. 1 in the league offensively a season ago, this just isn't going to cut it.

The good news is that the points have found their way onto the scoreboard late in both of the first two games of the year for Calgary. It has accounted for a shade under 400 yards of offense per game this season, No. 3 in the league, and a scoring average of 27.5 PPG is a healthy figure.

Henry Burris really needs to do a better job of protecting the pigskin, though. He already has four picks and a grand total of five turnovers for the year, and that just won't get the job done. Calgary is already a minus two this year in the turnover department, and that was a category that it really excelled at last season.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg has really been a treat for CFL bettors over the course of the first two weeks of the season. Despite being the worst team in the CFL last year, the Blue Bombers have come out of the blocks in 2011 with guns blazing, pulling upsets over both the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Toronto Argonauts.

The key has been a stifling defense. The Blue Bombers rank No. 2 in the league in total defense at 327.0 YPG allowed, and No. 1 in scoring defense at 16.0 PPG allowed.

The only question is whether the league's worst rated offense is going to be able to get anything going against Calgary. Buck Pierce hasn't looked sharp under center this season, accounting for just 316 passing yards, and the offense only has two majors to its name on the campaign.

There is a ton of good news here for Winnipeg, though. The Blue Bombers have gone a stellar 5-1-1 ATS over the last seven duels between these teams. The home team had also won nine straight before Calgary came here to Canad Inns Stadium a season ago and stole a 35-32 victory.

Still, that was only good for a push for the Stamps, who were three point favorites on the day. They haven't covered a spread in Winnipeg since 2005, going 0-4-1 ATS since that point.

The Blue Bombers still aren't really getting the respect of the oddsmakers, as they are three point underdogs on Thursday night. The 'total' opened up at 52 at The Greek on Monday.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 12:54 PM

Around the Horn - Thursday

July 13, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida at Chicago - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Sanchez (6-2, 3.58 ERA) 7-2 L9 0-6 L6 away Game 1's
Garza (4-7, 4.26 ERA) 3-7 L10 6-0 L6 on Thursdays

Milwaukee at Colorado - 8:40 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gallardo (10-5, 3.76 ERA) 4-1 L5 1-5 L6 on Thursdays
Jimenez (4-8, 4.14 ERA) 2-6 L8 4-1 L5 home Game 1's

San Francisco at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Bumgarner (4-9, 3.87 ERA) 4-1 L5 5-2 L7 away Game 1's
Harang (7-2, 3.45 ERA) 2-6 L8 UNDER 8-2 L10 home off loss

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Masterson (7-6, 2.64 ERA) 2-4 L6 2-6 L8 away Game 1's
Guthrie (3-12, 4.18 ERA) 0-7 L7 OVER 5-2 L7 on Thursdays

N.Y. Yankees at Toronto - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Colon (6-4, 3.20 ERA) 10-4 L14 8-3 away vs LHP
Reyes (4-7, 4.57 ERA) 5-3 L8 2-9 L11 home vs RHP

Kansas City at Minnesota - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Chen (5-2, 3.26 ERA) 4-6 L10 0-8 L8 away vs LHP
Liriano (5-7, 5.06 ERA) 7-3 L10 6-2 L8 home vs LHP

Texas at Seattle - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Holland (7-4, 4.68 ERA) 7-0 L7 4-10 away vs LHP
Vargas (6-6, 3.49 ERA) 0-5 L5 3-7 home vs LHP

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 12:57 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 14, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Brewers are 0-11 since September 01, 2010 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cubs are 0-8-1 OU since April 10, 2010 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Brewers are 0-11 since October 01, 2008 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 3-13 since April 25th 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they allowed at most one walk and at most one home run.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Giants are 7-0 since May 28, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $755.

The Rangers are 0-6 since August 01, 2010 as a road favorite after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $850 when playing against.

The Yankees are 6-0 since April 20, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 12:59 PM

MLB First-Half Awards

July 11, 2011

Best Team: After starting the season 2-10 and having everyone in Red Sox nation a little nervous, the Sox have gone 53-25 thanks to the consistent hitting of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Although the Phillies have the best record, Boston get the nod because of their bats.

Worst team: The Houston Astros (30-62) have the worst record in baseball validating that their starting pitching, bullpen and lineup are also MLB's worst. While we should expect to see teams like the Twins, Royals and Cubs all play better in the second-half, there has been no signs that Houston will regain a pulse. Bettors who took UNDER 72 wins on the season at the Las Vegas Hilton should mathematically being able to cash pretty soon.

Biggest Surprise: The Pittsburgh Pirates get the nod here even though the Indians have actually been in first-place this season. We just feel the Bucs were much more of a surprise. Before the season started they had odds of 300-to-1 to win the World Series and had the lowest posted total of 67.5 wins, just below the Royals (68).

Biggest Disappointment: Although the White Sox don’t have that bad of a record (44-48), their collective disappointments from players like Adam Dunn (.160), Alex Rios (.213) and their bullpen have kept them from coming close to their potential. Not everyone had the White Sox to win the American League Central, but they were supposed to be competing. According to Hilton odds, the White Sox had a season win total of 85 wins.

Most Surprising Player: Since the Pirates already made it as biggest surprise, we’ll take Joel Hanrahan and Kevin Correia out of the running and go with a player somewhere else that has unexpectedly taken his team to another level with his play. Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (.293, 14 HRs, 51 RBIs) has already set a career high in home runs, but more importantly, he’s carried his team all season on his back. Depending on how the Indians finish, he’s a player that could steal an MVP away from the bigger stat players in the same fashion Terry Pendleton and Barry Larkin did when they won in the past.

Most Disappointing Player: The aforementioned pair from Chicago in Dunn and Rios are major contributors to the White Sox team situation and could each be co-winners, but Dan Uggla (.160 Avg.) of the Braves has to be the one player that stands out the most. His lack of production is less noticeable because his team is doing so well with everyone else, but that .185 batting average with 366 plate appearances is something even Mario Mendoza’s career average of .215 laughs at.

Fortunately for the Braves, Uggla at least has some power numbers with 14 home runs. Because he has stayed so far under the radar, he could have a great second-half and make some big hits down the stretch to get the Braves in the playoffs. His confidence shouldn’t be as shattered as the likes of Dunn who many blame for the Sox woes.

Best Player: Jose Bautista has shown everyone that the former journeyman’s 54 home runs in 2010 were no fluke as he has elevated his game even further this season. The 31 bombs he’s hit already this year are amazing considering the Hilton posted a total of 27.5 for the entire year, but what is most impressive is his batting average. A .260 hitter last season, Bautista has raised that number .74 points to .334.

Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.45 ERA) doesn’t have the most wins, strike outs or lowest ERA in baseball, but what he does have is most team wins that has helped the Phillies to the best record. The Phillies are 16-3 with him on the mound and they haven’t lost a game he has started since May 15.

Manager of the Year: The job that Clint Hurdle has done in Pittsburgh has been amazing. He’s got his team one game out of first-place at the All-Star break, their best season since 1992. He’s taken a bunch of cast-offs and young players within their system and turned them into the best story of the season.

Best Days of the Week: It’s no surprise that the two best teams have one of the days locked up where they are almost a guarantee to win. The Red Sox are 13-2 on Sunday’s while the Phillies are 13-2 on Wednesday’s.

Worst Days of the Week: The Astros are bad every day, but they really lower their standards on Friday’s going 3-12. The Cubs getaway from focusing on getaway Sunday’s as they are 2-12 through the first half.

Biggest Injury Impact: Buster Posey getting taken out at the plate cost him his season and will hurt the Giants down the stretch, but they haven’t been as affected as most thought and still remain in first-place.

Josh Johnson’s shoulder issues that cost the Marlins his services on May 17 has been the most damaging injury. At the time of his injury the Marlins were only one game back. They were considered contenders to make a run at the Phillies, but now they are 14 games back and in last place.

Most Exciting Play of the Year: Derek Jeter’s 3,000th hit, a home run, to become the first Yankee to ever reach the milestone was an amazing moment. Like the Yankees or not, that moment had a historical appeal because of how great the franchise is. Not only did Jeter hit a home run, something only Wade Boggs did at 3,000, but he went 5-for-5 with the game winning hit.

Come Back Kids: The Tampa Bay Rays always feel they are in the game and never give up. This season they have come back to win an MLB high five games when trailing heading into the ninth inning. They also are one of only six teams to have won every game this season when going into the ninth leading.

Road Warrior: The Pirates' Kevin Correia started 11 games on the road and got a decision in each as he went 9-2 with 2.71 ERA. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, he hasn’t been nearly as good at home going 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA. Nevertheless, after almost everyone else couldn’t make the All-Star game, Correia and his 11 wins were finally asked to fill in and he accepted.

Left Out: Everyone thinks that Texas manager Ron Washington is justified for not choosing CC Sabathia to be part of the AL All-Star squad because he pitched on Sunday. The would-be selection is an honor that CC deserved for his play. You can’t tell me there are 15 better pitchers in the AL than Sabathia.

We have somehow gotten into the assumption that Sabathia’s body of work is just an expectant because he does the same thing year in and year out without labeling it extraordinary. Washington isn’t alone with his thoughts on CC as evident by baseball writers giving a 13-game winner the Cy Young award over him last year even though he won 21 games.

Despite starting on Sunday themselves, Matt Cain and Cole Hamels will still have the honor of being an All-Star attached to the record books while Sabathia, with his 13 wins and two shutouts watches the game from home.

I’m the last to show any sympathy for a Yankee player, but this was flat out wrong to the point that it almost looks as if Washington has a beef with Sabathia.

Best home plate umpire for OVER’s: Tim McClellan’s has a 13-3-2 OVER record when he’s behind the plate.

Best Home plate umpire for UNDER’s: Alan Porter has a 12-3 UNDER record when he calls games.

Best Money Line Team: Pirates +1,376

Worst Money Line Team: Astros -2,638

Pitching oddities: The Oakland A’s are 9-22 on the road against right-handed pitchers, but are 16-16 at home against them. The Orioles go a step further by being 4-14 on the road against RHP, but have a 12-9 home record against them. The Giants stand alone this season in their efforts against lefties going 18-6. Detroit is a close second with an amazing 9-2 record vs. LHP’s in day games and 17-11 overall.

LV Hilton Phillie Aces Prop: Before the season started the Hilton were offering a prop on the combined win total from the four Phillies starters: Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. They posted a number of 59.5 and it immediately got hammered OVER, but the Hilton crew opted to just move the money-line and not move the total. The bettors that thought the number to be low were all thinking that Lee and Halladay were good for 20 wins each and between Hamels and Oswalt, the other 20 wins would come somewhere.

The Hilton offered the number where they did just because of injury possibilities that have become so common in today's game. Through the All-Star break -- not the halfway point -- the quartet of pitchers have combined for 35 wins with Oswalt finding himself on the disabled list twice. The other three pitchers have all put up Cy Young type of numbers and have played their absolute best, or better than expected, but they'll have to continue at that rate to make the OVER 59.5 bet a winning bet.

My guess is that the decision on the prop will come down to their final starts of the season with Oswalt being the major wild card. It would be hard to believe that the big three would be able to continue their torrid pace through the final months, especially the likes of Hamels and Lee.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 01:03 PM

Storm try to hand San Antonio its 4th straight loss

SEATTLE STORM (7-4)

at SAN ANTONIO SILVER STARS (7-4)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -3, Total: 151

The Silver Stars are cooling off at the wrong time, as defending champion Seattle has adjusted to life without Lauren Jackson and visits San Antonio on Thursday night after a couple of impressive victories.

The Storm are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS against San Antonio over the past three seasons and the way the two teams have played recently makes SEATTLE the pick to win again.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend showing Thursday night should be more of the same.

SAN ANTONIO is 4-16 ATS (20.0%, -13.6 Units) after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 73.4, OPPONENT 81.8 - (Rating = 3*).

The Silver Stars have played four straight games under the total, but this three-star trend expects the OVER to occur on Thursday.

SAN ANTONIO is 16-3 OVER (84.2%, +12.7 Units) in home games off a home loss against a division rival since 1997. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 78.1, OPPONENT 73.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Seattle has been without reigning MVP Lauren Jackson since June 21. Jackson will miss up to three months after undergoing surgery on her left hip. But the Storm have gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) without her, including impressive back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and Washington at home. The Storm have not played well on the road this year though. They’re just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS away from Seattle.

Meanwhile, after a 7-1 start (SU and ATS) San Antonio has dropped three straight (SU and ATS). After being swept in a home-and-home with New York, the Silver Stars were blitzed at home by a short-handed Los Angeles team, 84-74, on Tuesday night.

They led by eight at the end of the first quarter, but over the final three quarters were outscored by 18 by a Sparks team that was without Candace Parker and had lost five straight. San Antonio point guard Becky Hammon was just 2-for-14 from the field and missed all seven of her three-point attempts in the loss. She’s shooting just 39.1% from the field at home this season.

Since blowing out Tulsa in a home-and-home to start the season, the Silver Stars are 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-14-2011, 01:35 PM

MLBThursday, July 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -106 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +133 500
Toronto - Over 9.5 500

Florida - 8:05 PM ET Florida +101 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 7.5 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +142 500
Minnesota - Under 8 500

Milwaukee - 8:40 PM ET Colorado -134 500
Colorado - Under 8.5 500

San Francisco - 10:05 PM ET San Francisco +103 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Texas - 10:10 PM ET Seattle +110 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

CFLThursday, July 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Calgary - 8:00 PM ET Winnipeg +3 500

Winnipeg - Under 52.5 500

9:00 PM ETSeattle at San Antonio
Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds
SEA 601 7-4 (2-3 V) - 149.5 OVER
SA 602 7-4 (3-3 H) - -5.5 Seattle + 5.5

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores

**Udog** · 07-14-2011, 02:07 PM

Man, I've missed this stuff the last few days! Thanks, Bum! Good luck today!

**flashypants** · 07-14-2011, 06:36 PM

lol i think everybody does

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The Bum's Thursday's MLB-CFL-WNBA Best Bets !

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