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[StarDust Bum]

Bautista Favored In 2011 Home Run Derby

Reigning MLB home run king Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays leads a field of eight participants for the 2011 State Farm Home Run Derby on Monday at Chase Field in Phoenix and has been installed as the 3/1 favorite.

Bautista led all players heading into the weekend with 29 homers after hitting a career-high 54 last season in his seventh year and third in Toronto. Television coverage of the event will begin at 5 p.m. (PT) on ESPN.

The former Pittsburgh Pirate – who played with four different teams as a rookie in 2004 – has been a bit of an enigma in the post-steroids era of baseball. Bautista had never hit more than the 16 dingers he tallied with Pittsburgh in 2006 before last year, but he had also played in more than 128 games only once in his first six seasons.

American League captain David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox is the defending champion and ranks second all-time in Home Run Derby round trippers with 68 after hitting 32 last year. Ortiz is appropriately the second choice among oddsmakers at 9/2 to win the competition that will also pit each league against each other for the first time in history. The winning captain will get $150,000 to donate to his charity of choice while the loser will get $25,000.

As captain, Ortiz got the opportunity to pick three players for the AL and chose Bautista, Red Sox teammate Adrian Gonzalez (5/1) and New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano (6/1). National League captain Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers joins Gonzalez at 5/1 and will have Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp (6/1), St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday (7/1) and Milwaukee teammate Rickie Weeks (15/1) on his side.

Ortiz figures to pass all-time leader Ken Griffey Jr. (70) in the first round of the Home Run Derby, but a fast start has not guaranteed a title over the years. He hit eight in the first round last year, which was topped by Brewers outfielder Corey Hart (13) and Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez (nine). Hart did not hit one in the second round and was eliminated while Ramirez hit 12 before losing to Ortiz in the finals, 11-5.

The player with the most homers in the first round has gone on to win the competition just twice in the past five years, and both winners were tied for the lead with other players (Fielder in 2009 and Vladimir Guerrero in 2007). Two of the past four winners had the most total homers in the competition that year (Fielder and Ortiz).

Only three Home Run Derby winners have gone on to knock one out of the park in the All-Star Game since 1985, with two of them (Cal Ripken, Jr. in 1991 and Garret Anderson in 2003) winning MVP honors.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB All-Star Game: NL Looks To Repeat

The National League has the proverbial monkey off its back and is looking for another win in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game from Chase Field in Arizona.

The festivities get underway on FOX at 5:00 p.m. (PT) and the Don Best odds product will have the line soon.

There’s also a write-up of Monday’s Home Run Derby with a left-handed hitter trying to win for the fourth straight time and ninth in 11 years.

The NL won the midsummer classic last year (3-1) for its first outright win since 1996. There was a tie in 2002. Last year’s victory gave San Francisco home field advantage in the World Series and it was crucial in a 4-1 series win over Texas.

San Francisco’s Bruce Bochy will manage the NL squad this year and winning is important as the Giants have a great chance to make the playoffs again.

Bochy has three Milwaukee Brewers among his starting position players with Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun. They’ve combined for 55 home runs this year, although Braun (calf) is questionable along with Philadelphia’s Placido Polanco (back).

Other injury news has starting shortstop Jose Reyes (hamstring) out. The Met should be replaced by Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki (quad), who is questionable. Philly reserve outfielder Shane Victorino (thumb) was already replaced by the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier.

The NL starters are highlighted by the Philadelphia trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. Hamels will start on Sunday and thus will be ineligible for Tuesday. The same goes for San Fran starter Matt Cain.

Bochy got some grief for having four of his hurlers in starters Cain, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong, plus closer Brian Wilson. Wilson will be joined by relievers Tyler Clippard, Jonny Venters, Heath Bell, and Joel Hanrahan. Relief pitching is always huge with the 2006-2009 games all decided by one run.

Texas’ Ron Washington will manage the American League. The big recent story is Yankee starters Derek Jeter (calf) and Alex Rodriguez (knee) withdrawing. Former reserves Asdrubal Cabrera and Adrian Beltre will take their places respectively, with Boston’s Kevin Youkilis and Detroit’s Jhonny Peralta added to the squad.

The AL does have some big boppers in the lineup. Toronto’s Jose Bautista leads MLB in homers (29). The next nearest competitors are AL guys Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson (each with 25), although only the latter made the team. American League starters David Ortiz (19 homers), Adrian Gonzalez (17 homers) and Josh Hamilton (10 homers) can all change the game with one swing of the bat.

Closer Mariano Rivera is another Yankee who previously withdrew, replaced by the Angels' Jordan Walden. Losing Rivera at the back end is a big blow with Detroit’s Jose Valverde (23 saves), Seattle’s Brandon League (23 saves), Cleveland’s Chris Perez (21 saves) and Walden (19 saves) the other candidates to close. Only Valverde has pitched in an All-Star Game before.

The AL starters have huge losses in Detroit’s Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.26 ERA) and Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-7, 3.22 ERA) who will both pitch Sunday. Tampa starter James Shields (8-6, 2.47 ERA) will also be unavailable.

Boston’s Josh Beckett (8-3) is third in the AL in ERA (2.23), but hurt his knee on Friday and is questionable as well.

Ultimately, this matchup could come down to the superior NL pitching (starting and relief) against the AL sluggers. The ‘fearsome five’ NL starters left of Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Jair Jurrjens and Clayton Kershaw could very well be good enough for the NL to pull out back-to-back wins.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox Top MLB Odds In American League

The Red Sox remain 1/2 favorites to win the American League East.
The Boston Red Sox are the solid favorite to win the American League despite a rash of injuries to their starting pitching staff. The Sox (55-35) head into the All-Star break with the best record in the AL and a 1-game lead over the Yankees in the East.

Terry Francona’s guys have managed to win six straight and 10-of-11 (albeit against mostly easy competition) despite having guys like Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller and Tim Wakefield toe the rubber. None of the three were in the rotation at the start of the year, with only Wakefield in the majors.

Jon Lester (lat strain) and Clay Buchholz (back) are both on the 15-day disabled list and the inconsistent Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow) is gone for the year. The team received a scare with Josh Beckett (knee) last Friday, but he’s been cleared for Tuesday’s All-Star Game. High-priced John Lackey is the final original starter, but his 6.84 ERA doesn’t give much hope for the second half.

Outfielder Carl Crawford (hamstring) is another player trying to justify a big free agent contract. He’s been a borderline bust (.659 OPS), but has been better since a dismal April (.431 OPS). Hitting is not a problem overall at 5.36 runs per game, best in the AL.

The relief pitching is also strong with Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon at the back end of the pen.

However, Boston’s 3/2 odds to win the pennant, and especially the -200 odds to win the AL East, both seem predicated on a healthy second half, a factor still in major doubt.

New York (3/1 pennant odds) is happy to have Derek Jeter’s quest for 3,000 hits behind, but is now dealing with a knee injury to Alex Rodriguez, out four-to-six weeks. However, the offense is second in the AL (5.17 runs per game) and will be solid without him.

More concerning is the starting staff after ace CC Sabathia (13-4, 2.72 ERA). Reclamation projects Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have both impressed, but Phil Hughes needs to stay healthy and claim the No. 2 job. A.J. Burnett can’t be counted on in that role.

The Yankees (53-35) are just 1-8 against Boston in the first half. However, they’re 52-27 (.658 winning percentage) versus everyone else and five games up in the wild card over Tampa Bay and the L.A. Angels. The schedule won't be in their favor, however, with 42 road games on the remainder of the slate compared to 32 at home in the Bronx.

Texas’ pennant odds (15/2) are a huge step down from the top-2. It does have a batting lineup to match the ‘big boys’ and the starting staff has proven decent (3.65 ERA, sixth in the AL) without Cliff Lee. However, Lee will be missed down the stretch after leading the team to the World Series last year.

The Rangers (51-41) big problem is the AL’s 12th ranked bullpen (4.57 ERA). Closer Neftali Feliz has done his job with 18 saves and 3.18 ERA, but the rest of the unit must improve if they want to hold off the Angels (one game back) in the West.

Detroit (10/1 odds) has a slim half-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central. The Tigers (49-43) have a -8 run differential with solid hitting (fifth in the AL in runs) offset by the 11th ranked staff (4.27 ERA).

Justin Verlander (12-4, 2.15) has been lights out, but no other regular starter has an ERA under 4.50. The bullpen also has problems outside closer Jose Valverde and improving set-up man Joaquin Benoit.

The Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels are all at 15/1 odds. The small budget Rays (49-41) look stuck in AL East purgatory, while the White Sox (44-48) have the talent to turn things around if Alex Rios (.572 OPS) and Adam Dunn (.597 OPS) can find their stroke.

The Angels (50-42) have beat up some mediocre teams lately to go 14-3 in their last 17. The pitching staff allowed three runs or less in 13 of those games. The hitting is below average and will need to keep manufacturing runs.

Cleveland (18/1 odds) and Seattle (25/1 odds) have both overachieved. The Indians (47-42) were 33-20 through June 1, but are just 14-22 since. However, they’re still right in the thick of the Central. Seattle (43-48) is fading fast, losing five straight and going 6-13 in its last 19.

Minnesota has a 41-48 record, but is playing much better since June started (24-12). Its 35/1 odds are interesting as a long shot pick.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB First-Half Awards

July 11, 2011

Best Team: After starting the season 2-10 and having everyone in Red Sox nation a little nervous, the Sox have gone 53-25 thanks to the consistent hitting of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Although the Phillies have the best record, Boston get the nod because of their bats.

Worst team: The Houston Astros (30-62) have the worst record in baseball validating that their starting pitching, bullpen and lineup are also MLB's worst. While we should expect to see teams like the Twins, Royals and Cubs all play better in the second-half, there has been no signs that Houston will regain a pulse. Bettors who took UNDER 72 wins on the season at the Las Vegas Hilton should mathematically being able to cash pretty soon.

Biggest Surprise: The Pittsburgh Pirates get the nod here even though the Indians have actually been in first-place this season. We just feel the Bucs were much more of a surprise. Before the season started they had odds of 300-to-1 to win the World Series and had the lowest posted total of 67.5 wins, just below the Royals (68).

Biggest Disappointment: Although the White Sox don’t have that bad of a record (44-48), their collective disappointments from players like Adam Dunn (.160), Alex Rios (.213) and their bullpen have kept them from coming close to their potential. Not everyone had the White Sox to win the American League Central, but they were supposed to be competing. According to Hilton odds, the White Sox had a season win total of 85 wins.

Most Surprising Player: Since the Pirates already made it as biggest surprise, we’ll take Joel Hanrahan and Kevin Correia out of the running and go with a player somewhere else that has unexpectedly taken his team to another level with his play. Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (.293, 14 HRs, 51 RBIs) has already set a career high in home runs, but more importantly, he’s carried his team all season on his back. Depending on how the Indians finish, he’s a player that could steal an MVP away from the bigger stat players in the same fashion Terry Pendleton and Barry Larkin did when they won in the past.

Most Disappointing Player: The aforementioned pair from Chicago in Dunn and Rios are major contributors to the White Sox team situation and could each be co-winners, but Dan Uggla (.160 Avg.) of the Braves has to be the one player that stands out the most. His lack of production is less noticeable because his team is doing so well with everyone else, but that .185 batting average with 366 plate appearances is something even Mario Mendoza’s career average of .215 laughs at.

Fortunately for the Braves, Uggla at least has some power numbers with 14 home runs. Because he has stayed so far under the radar, he could have a great second-half and make some big hits down the stretch to get the Braves in the playoffs. His confidence shouldn’t be as shattered as the likes of Dunn who many blame for the Sox woes.

Best Player: Jose Bautista has shown everyone that the former journeyman’s 54 home runs in 2010 were no fluke as he has elevated his game even further this season. The 31 bombs he’s hit already this year are amazing considering the Hilton posted a total of 27.5 for the entire year, but what is most impressive is his batting average. A .260 hitter last season, Bautista has raised that number .74 points to .334.

Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.45 ERA) doesn’t have the most wins, strike outs or lowest ERA in baseball, but what he does have is most team wins that has helped the Phillies to the best record. The Phillies are 16-3 with him on the mound and they haven’t lost a game he has started since May 15.

Manager of the Year: The job that Clint Hurdle has done in Pittsburgh has been amazing. He’s got his team one game out of first-place at the All-Star break, their best season since 1992. He’s taken a bunch of cast-offs and young players within their system and turned them into the best story of the season.

Best Days of the Week: It’s no surprise that the two best teams have one of the days locked up where they are almost a guarantee to win. The Red Sox are 13-2 on Sunday’s while the Phillies are 13-2 on Wednesday’s.

Worst Days of the Week: The Astros are bad every day, but they really lower their standards on Friday’s going 3-12. The Cubs getaway from focusing on getaway Sunday’s as they are 2-12 through the first half.

Biggest Injury Impact: Buster Posey getting taken out at the plate cost him his season and will hurt the Giants down the stretch, but they haven’t been as affected as most thought and still remain in first-place.

Josh Johnson’s shoulder issues that cost the Marlins his services on May 17 has been the most damaging injury. At the time of his injury the Marlins were only one game back. They were considered contenders to make a run at the Phillies, but now they are 14 games back and in last place.

Most Exciting Play of the Year: Derek Jeter’s 3,000th hit, a home run, to become the first Yankee to ever reach the milestone was an amazing moment. Like the Yankees or not, that moment had a historical appeal because of how great the franchise is. Not only did Jeter hit a home run, something only Wade Boggs did at 3,000, but he went 5-for-5 with the game winning hit.

Come Back Kids: The Tampa Bay Rays always feel they are in the game and never give up. This season they have come back to win an MLB high five games when trailing heading into the ninth inning. They also are one of only six teams to have won every game this season when going into the ninth leading.

Road Warrior: The Pirates' Kevin Correia started 11 games on the road and got a decision in each as he went 9-2 with 2.71 ERA. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, he hasn’t been nearly as good at home going 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA. Nevertheless, after almost everyone else couldn’t make the All-Star game, Correia and his 11 wins were finally asked to fill in and he accepted.

Left Out: Everyone thinks that Texas manager Ron Washington is justified for not choosing CC Sabathia to be part of the AL All-Star squad because he pitched on Sunday. The would-be selection is an honor that CC deserved for his play. You can’t tell me there are 15 better pitchers in the AL than Sabathia.

We have somehow gotten into the assumption that Sabathia’s body of work is just an expectant because he does the same thing year in and year out without labeling it extraordinary. Washington isn’t alone with his thoughts on CC as evident by baseball writers giving a 13-game winner the Cy Young award over him last year even though he won 21 games.

Despite starting on Sunday themselves, Matt Cain and Cole Hamels will still have the honor of being an All-Star attached to the record books while Sabathia, with his 13 wins and two shutouts watches the game from home.

I’m the last to show any sympathy for a Yankee player, but this was flat out wrong to the point that it almost looks as if Washington has a beef with Sabathia.

Best home plate umpire for OVER’s: Tim McClellan’s has a 13-3-2 OVER record when he’s behind the plate.

Best Home plate umpire for UNDER’s: Alan Porter has a 12-3 UNDER record when he calls games.

Best Money Line Team: Pirates +1,376

Worst Money Line Team: Astros -2,638

Pitching oddities: The Oakland A’s are 9-22 on the road against right-handed pitchers, but are 16-16 at home against them. The Orioles go a step further by being 4-14 on the road against RHP, but have a 12-9 home record against them. The Giants stand alone this season in their efforts against lefties going 18-6. Detroit is a close second with an amazing 9-2 record vs. LHP’s in day games and 17-11 overall.

LV Hilton Phillie Aces Prop: Before the season started the Hilton were offering a prop on the combined win total from the four Phillies starters: Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. They posted a number of 59.5 and it immediately got hammered OVER, but the Hilton crew opted to just move the money-line and not move the total. The bettors that thought the number to be low were all thinking that Lee and Halladay were good for 20 wins each and between Hamels and Oswalt, the other 20 wins would come somewhere.

The Hilton offered the number where they did just because of injury possibilities that have become so common in today's game. Through the All-Star break -- not the halfway point -- the quartet of pitchers have combined for 35 wins with Oswalt finding himself on the disabled list twice. The other three pitchers have all put up Cy Young type of numbers and have played their absolute best, or better than expected, but they'll have to continue at that rate to make the OVER 59.5 bet a winning bet.

My guess is that the decision on the prop will come down to their final starts of the season with Oswalt being the major wild card. It would be hard to believe that the big three would be able to continue their torrid pace through the final months, especially the likes of Hamels and Lee.

[StarDust Bum]

BOLD HIGHLIGHT: My Best Bets

Bettin' the HR Derby

July 9, 2011


How in the heck can anyone actually bet the Home Run Derby? There’s really no way to handicap it. You can’t look up stats on the percentage of batting practice home runs players hit and you can’t necessarily look at the season home runs totals because they’ve been accumulated against live pitching throwing fastballs, curves and change-ups.
Again, how can you possibly bet this with real money?

Most of us can all ask that question now as we’re still betting games on a daily basis, handicapping every piece of data each pitcher offers and what type of streaks certain teams are on. The thought of actually betting on the derby seems beyond any logical bettor’s boundaries.

But when most of us wake up Monday morning and there is nothing to wager other than women’s sports, the home run derby will begin to sound a little more attractive as a betting option. And then that’s when the whole thought process of who we like and why will gain a little more steam.

Because I’m already dreading the day, I’ve already began my thought process on who I’m going to bet based on the odds offered by Lucky’s sports books in Las Vegas, who released their opinions on Friday.

Jose Bautista - 5/2: He leads baseball with 31 home runs this season and is always one of the reasons to get to the ball park early because he puts on a show during batting practice. He generates a tremendous amount of torque on all his blasts and is rightfully placed as the favorite to win.

Prince Fielder - 7/2: His 22 home runs are tied for second best in the NL and he has that natural power that should fare him well like it did in 2009 when he won the derby. However, his struggles in the 2007 event still linger. Perhaps because he’s captain of the NL squad and now a past winner, he’ll be a little more juiced up for this one.

Matt Holliday - 4/1: It’s kind of surprising to see Holliday’s odds so low considering his past derby struggles. It’s even more of a surprise that he would enter again after experiencing those struggles. In 2007 he made in to the second round, but last year he was one of the first to be eliminated. His swing is more suited for line drives and it just happens that he really smacks the ball hard and sometimes it goes out. Rarely will you ever see tape measure bombs from him.

David Ortiz - 9/2: He is the AL’s captain and reigning derby champ. Ortiz has the swing we look for in the derby with a slight upper-cut. Some of his biggest shots ever go to deep center field.

Adrian Gonzalez - 6/1: He didn’t fare very well in his first derby back in 2009, but between the odds and his swing, I think I could be swayed in his direction by Monday. He has a sweet swing and does it almost effortlessly with a slight upper cut.

Matt Kemp - 8/1: Everything has been going right for him this season and he hasn’t had those massive layoffs for months at a time like he has the last few years when he’s teased us with his excellence before. He’s got 22 home runs this year and has a violent explosion on the ball every time he hits it. The only problem with him is that he expends so much energy on each swing that he may tire before his session is over.

Robinson Cano - 10/1: He’s got a great swing, but like Holliday, it’s not a home run derby swing. He’s got 15 home runs on the year.

Rickie Weeks - 10/1: Between his added bulk and learning NL pitchers betters, Weeks has turned himself into a pretty good power source. He has 17 home runs this season and could be a viable option for those looking to cash in with a long shot, or least a better option than Cano.

Lucky’s gives that option of taking one hitter over another. They have listed Weeks and Cano against each other in round one at a pick’em. I’ll take Weeks to hit more than Cano in that one.

The other matchups are Bautista (-125) against Fielder, Holliday (-125) versus Ortiz and Gonzalez (-125) against Kemp. I’m leaning towards taking Ortiz and Gonzalez in those match-ups.

As for the overall winner, I like Gonzalez to do well, but I can’t see the home run champ letting this opportunity to be crowned get away from him. Let’s go with the favored Bautista to do what he does best.

Because I like both Bautista and Gonzalez, I can bet the AL team to win the derby in a matchup laying -125 over the NL and I get Ortiz as well.

Chase Field Dimensions

For being a relatively new park, Chase field is fairly isometric in its dimensions bucking the trend of most new parks with considerably different nuances throughout the outfield. Left field is 330 feet deep which is four feet closer than the right field porch. The power alleys are both 374 feet with center field being 407 feet with a fence much higher than left or right field. There really doesn’t seem to be an edge for either right or left-handed batters like we might see at other parks.

[StarDust Bum]

2011 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

2011 State Farm Home Run Derby
Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET - Chase Field (Arizona Diamondbacks home park)
Dimensions:
Left field: 330 feet
Power alleys: 374 feet
Center field: 407 feet
Deepest left-center and right-center: 413 feet
Right field: 334 feet

Starting at the Metrodome in 1985, Major League Baseball has held the Home Run Derby on the Monday of All-Star Week. Over the years this event has had many changes as to the rules and how the winner was determined. This year the format was revised so that there were team captains selecting the sides for the American and National League. Leading the American League will be David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox, while Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers will lead the National League.

For the first time since 1994, a league champion will be crowned, in addition to an individual champion. The total number of home runs hit by all players in all rounds will be tabulated for the A.L. and N.L. to determine the winning team.


Home Run Derby Notes:
Although Chase Field is pretty symmetrical for righties (330’ to left field) and lefties (334’ to right), five of the past six Derby winners have been left-handed batters, including the past three champions -- David Ortiz (2010), Prince Fielder (2009) and Justin Morneau (2008). Since the first individual competition in 1995, Vladimir Guerrero (2007), Miguel Tejada (2004), Sammy Sosa (2000) and Frank Thomas (1995) are the only righties to win.
Chase Field Home Runs Per Game
Last Five Seasons
2011 - 1.25, 5th in majors
2010 - 1.06, 11th in majors
2009 - 1.04, 14th in majors
2008 - 1.07, 10th in majors
2007 - 1.11, 11th in majors


Odds to win 2011 Home Run Derby
For the latest odds, connect to Sportsbook.com

American League
DAVID ORTIZ (7/2) – Bats Left
This will be Ortiz’s fifth appearance in the Home Run Derby. The Boston DH won the event last year, hitting 32 home runs (third most in a HR Derby event), and his 68 total home runs in this contest are second to only Ken Griffey Jr. who has 70 (excludes swing-off playoffs). At 7-to-2 odds, the payoff is certainly worth taking a chance on Ortiz.
Season Home Runs: 19
Career Home Runs: 368 (most among participants)
Career at Chase Field: 0 HR in 7 AB
JOSE BAUTISTA (2/1) – Bats Right
The Toronto outfielder has 31 HR, which are the most in the majors this season. He hit 54 HR to lead the majors last season, which is a main reason why he’s the favorite to win this event. But he is a right-handed hitter, and this will be his first Home Run Derby, so the payoff is probably not enough to play on.
Season Home Runs: 31
Career Home Runs: 144
Career at Chase Field: 2 HR in 34 AB

ADRIAN GONZALEZ (6/1) – Bats Left
He is an intriguing pick at 6-to-1, but your money is better spent elsewhere. This will be only the second appearance for Gonzalez, a teammate of Ortiz on the Red Sox, in the HR Derby. In his 2009 Derby with San Diego, he hit just two homers in his only round. The lefty has only slugged two longballs in his past 20 games, spanning 81 at-bats.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 185
Career at Chase Field: 13 HR in 169 AB

ROBINSON CANO (8/1) – Bats Left
The Yankees second baseman is making his first appearance in the HR Derby. Cano has hit 15 HR so far this season, but just four taters away from homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. He posted a career-best 29 HR in 2010, and should have greater longshot odds than his current 8-to-1 posting.
Season Home Runs: 15
Career Home Runs: 131
Career at Chase Field: 0 HR in 12 AB


National League
PRINCE FIELDER (3/1) – Bats Left
The captain of the National League, and Milwaukee first baseman is making his third HR Derby appearance. After hitting just three homers in his first Derby in 2007, Fielder won the event in 2009, hitting 23. Fielder is tied for second in the NL to Lance Berkman with 22 HR this season, and should be the overall favorite to win another HR Derby. In the matchup odds, he’s actually slightly favored (-120 to -110) to beat Jose Bautista head-to-head.
Season Home Runs: 22
Career Home Runs: 214
Career at Chase Field: 4 HR in 66 AB
MATT HOLLIDAY (7/2) – Bats Right
Holliday participated last year, failing to reach the semifinals hitting just five home runs. This will be his third appearance, as he reached the semifinals in 2007, but his 13 HR were one short of reaching the finals. That experience could help Holliday, but as a right-handed hitter with a career rate of 1 HR per 41.8 AB at Chase Field, he’s not a great bet on Monday.
Season Home Runs: 14
Career Home Runs: 194
Career at Chase Field: 4 HR in 167 AB

MATT KEMP (7/1) – Bats Right
Kemp is enjoying a fine season so far, as he is tied with Prince Fielder for second in the NL with 22 HR with 13 bombs coming on the road. He’s well ahead of pace to eclipse last year’s career-best 28 homers. This is his first HR Derby appearance, and he’s probably the best longshot to take at 7-to-1 odds. He’s actually favored over Matt Holliday (-125 to -105) in head-to-head betting, and could be a nice upset pick at (+120) to out-slug derby favorite Jose Bautista.
Season Home Runs: 22
Career Home Runs: 111
Career at Chase Field: 5 HR in 124 AB

RICKIE WEEKS (12/1) – Bats Right
Weeks will be making his first HR derby appearance. Prior to last season Weeks career-high for HR was 16 in 2007. However, last year he found his power stroke hitting 29 HR, and that trend has continued so far in 2011, as he has 17 at the break. His lack of power in Arizona (2 HR in 55 career at-bats) is worrisome, but his best value is +105 head-to-head against Robinson Cano.
Season Home Runs: 17
Career Home Runs: 106
Career at Chase Field: 2 HR in 55 AB