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**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 07:51 AM

Monday’s betting tips: Hobbled Messi will play

Weather to watch

MLB Home Run Derby – Meteorologists expect a hot, humid night in Arizona. Temperatures are expected to reach 98 degrees on Monday with a 40 percent chance of precipitation.

Key stat

1 – Number of goals Argentina has scored in its first two games at Copa America, which has set the host nation into a stage of panic ahead of Monday’s must-win match against Costa Rica. Much of the blame is being heaped on Lionel Messi, who is dealing with a sore ankle but will play Monday. “Leo is really down about this,” Messi’s father told Radio 10 after the team was booed off the pitch following a 0-0 draw against Columbia. “He can’t understand how this happened. It’s the first time they’ve whistled at him.” Argentina is pegged as a -665 favorite with the draw at +460 and Costa Rica at +1050.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies confirmed that Polanco won’t play in Tuesday’s All-Star game because of a bulging disc in his back and will be replaced by San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval. Polanco missed the last five games before the break and a stint on the disabled list is now a definite possibility.

Game of the day

MLB Home Run Derby - American League vs. National League – The American League is set as a -135 favorite to have the Derby’s winner on its side. The National League is pegged at -105.

Notable quotable

"I'll take it just like batting practice. It's a one-day thing, it happens once. I'm not superstitious, and I don't think it's going to mess up my swing. I'm not going to go there and try to change my swing for the sake of hitting more home runs.” – Jose Bautista on his game plan for Monday night’s Home Run Derby. Bautista leads the league with 31 home runs and is set as a +330 favorite in the Derby.

Notes and tips

NL Home Run Derby captain Prince Fielder is taking some heat for failing to name either Justin Upton or Wily Mo Pena to the team, leaving the NL without a representative of the hometown Arizona Diamondbacks in Monday’s event. "I don't know (what happened)," Upton told reporters. "It was totally up to him. He had to pick his guys. He had a relationship with Rickie Weeks, obviously. I don't know what his relationship is with the other two guys (Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday). But obviously, he picked them for a reason.”

The AL will be missing a number of its top pitchers on Tuesday. CC Sabathia, David Price, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Dan Haren and Felix Hernandez have all been ruled out and the American League is now set as a +100 underdog.

**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 07:53 AM

Monday's six-pack

College football information from philsteele.com

-- Tennessee has had three head coaches in last five years, but they're a nifty 8-2 vs spread as a road favorite in those five years.

-- Boise State is 12-4 as a road favorite the last three years; we'll see if they do as well on the road in their new conference.

-- Since 2006, Florida State is 16-8 in game following a loss.

-- Illinois is 5-10 as a favorite the last three seasons.

-- Houston is 2-10-1 as a road favorite under Kevin Sumlin

-- Since 2005, Hawai'i is surprisingly 10-5 as a road favorite.

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Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend........

13) 16 players who were elected to the All-Star Game won't be there on Tuesday; only four of the 16 are on the DL. Since the game actually has meaning (which is stupid, but thats another story for another day), you'd think the players on the contending teams would want to play, since it could decide whether they play Game 7 of the World Series at home.

12) Pirates have three guys in All-Star Game for first time since 1990.

11) Average price for tickets to the HR Derby Monday were $198.36 on Sunday afternoon, down 30% or so from LY; tickets for All-Star Game Tuesday average a cool $290.51, down roughly 50% from LY.

10) A 23-year old who sells cellphones for a living caught the 3,000th hit by Derek Jeter Saturday; he offered to give the ball up for free, when it was suggested he might be able to pull in six figures for the ball. All this was going on at about the same time TV commercials were already on the air, selling Jeter replica bats for $130 each. Greed is good.

It brings up an interesting debate; if the 23-year old has college debts (he went to St Lawrence, which ain't cheap) wouldn't he have been smart to use that baseball to clear up his debts? It wouldn't be greedy, it would be good business. Getting a pat on the back doesn't pay your bills.

9) Alex Rodriguez is out 4-6 weeks after knee surgery; interesting to see if Bronx goes after a veteran utility-type player to fill in for him.

8) Cardinals have been in first place or tied for first seven times under the guidance of Tony Larussa; they made the playoffs in all seven seasons.

7) Has to be encouraging for the Reds to have Dontrelle Willis come up and allow only two runs in six innings at Milwaukee. If he ever got back to his form from 5-6 years ago, he'd be a huge addition for Cincinnati.

6) Padres went to LA this weekend and scored one run in three games. It is time to bring Blanks/Darnell up and go younger. Teams like San Diego, Baltimore, the Cubs and Oakland are depressing to watch right now.

5) Red Sox have a minor league doubleheader planned at Fenway August 20, with two of Boston's farm clubs playing on the big league field, with fans getting in for as little as $5. Good idea. Will let people into Fenway who wouldn't ordinarily have access to the park.

4) Supposed to be very hot in Mississippi this weekend for the regular PGA Tour event stop (British Open is actually a European Tour event); at least 14 golfers have banded together and agreed to wear shorts, on the assumption that the Tour won't disqualify all 14. Wearing shorts has been against the rules; think it has to be a certain temperature for even caddies to be able to wear shorts. We'll see how this turns out.

3) Don't want to say golfer Bobby Clampett grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth, but his high school golf team's home matches were held at freakin' Pebble Beach. After that, its all downhill from there.

2) Final count in Main Event of World Series of Poker: 6,865, which has the first place share at a cool $8,711,956. Imagine how big this would be if our government hadn't butted it and made online poker illegal.

1) I'm off to the desert for summer vacation; this page will be updating daily as always; we'll pick up with baseball and the CFL too, but for the next eight days, sitting by the pool and relaxing is the #1 priority.

**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 07:57 AM

MLB

Monday, July 11

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Bombs away: Handicapping the MLB Home Run Derby
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With the National League playing host to Monday's Home Run Derby, and subsequently the All-Star game, the powers that be couldn’t have picked a better park than Arizona’s Chase Field.

Out of every major league setting, Chase Field ranks fifth in home run rate at 1.283 (according to MLB ballpark factor), watching 101 balls clear its outfield walls so far this season. Those numbers are tops among NL stadiums, setting the stage for some huge dingers Monday night.

Of course, it helps when the derby roster is stocked with some of the biggest swingers in baseball.

American League captain David Ortiz selected reigning home run champ Jose Bautista, Boston teammate Adrian Gonzalez, and Yankees rival Robinson Cano. National League captain Prince Fielder picked two-time contestant Matt Holliday, Triple-Crown threat Matt Kemp, and teammate Ricky Weeks.

That field has combined for 155 home runs heading into Saturday, with the AL holding an 80-75 edge over the NL. Since 2000, the Junior Circuit leads the Senior 6-5 in the derby, with Ortiz breaking the tie after rocking 32 total round-trippers and beating Hanley Ramirez in the final round last year.

According to oddsmakers, the AL will take the home run derby again this summer, pricing an American League player to win at -130, while a National League champ would pay off at +111. If MLB bettors have a good feeling about one of this year’s contestants, they might as well double-down on the derby with the league prop.

Here’s a closer look at the field for the 2011 MLB Home Run Derby:

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays - 31 home runs (+330)

The Jays’ slugger is proving he’s no one-year wonder, leading the majors with 31 big-flys this season. Bautista heads into the contests with one of the hottest bats in the majors. He homered in all three games versus the Phillies last weekend and heads into Saturday with five homers in his last eight outings.

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers - 22 home runs (+367)

Fielder won the derby in 2009, launching 23 total home runs and edging Nelson Cruz in the final, paying out at +500. This season, Fielder has depended on Miller Park to provide much of his pop, hitting 14 of his bombs at home. However, he’s been comfortable in his limited trips to Chase Field, hitting four home runs in 54 career at-bats in Arizona – which is about one per series.

Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals – 14 home runs (+367)

St. Louis’ slugger is red hot entering the weekend, with four home runs in his last five games heading into Saturday. That, however, didn’t help Holliday in last year’s derby when he entered the contest with four home runs in the week before the break. He managed only five home runs and finished fifth. He placed third in the 2007 derby and in 167 career at-bats at Chase Field, he’s only hit four big-flys.

David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – 19 home runs (+383)

Ortiz entered the 2010 Home Run Derby priced at +300 in what would be his fourth try at the ASG HR crown. Big Papi finally came through, hitting 32 total four-baggers, including 11 dingers in the final round. He’s sitting with one more home run than he had at this point last summer, and is paying a bit more in the odds. He’s also gone yard in two straight games heading into Saturday’s slate. At this price, Ortiz is a great bet to become the first back-to-back derby winner since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998 and 1999.

Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox – 17 home runs (+725)

Gonzalez is flourishing in the Red Sox lineup and leads the majors in most statistical categories. But he’s not really known as a big swinger, with just one home run in his last 11 games heading into Saturday. He mustered just two home runs in his lone derby appearance in 2009 (priced at +500). That said, he punished the D-backs every time he visited Chase Field as a member of the Padres, smashing 13 home runs in 169 career at-bats there.

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers – 22 home runs (+737)

Kemp is flirting with history, chasing after the NL Triple Crown, but has fallen off the pace in the home run category. He’s failed to record a round-tripper in 10 straight games, heading into Saturday, and carries that power outage into Monday’s derby in Arizona. However, fellow NL contestants Fielder was in a skid before he won the derby in 2009 and Kemp has had plenty of looks inside Chase Field. He has four home runs in 124 career at-bats in the desert.

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees – 15 home runs (+888)

Cano is another slugger making his derby debt Monday. His totals have benefited from playing in the home-run friendly new Yankee Stadium, hitting 11 of his 15 HRs in the Bronx this season. He’s only had 12 at-bats at Chase Field during his six years in the bigs and has failed to go yard in those limited chances. However, if guys like Cal Ripken Jr. and Bobby Abreu can win the derby, so can Cano.

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers – 17 home runs (+1,167)

Leadoff hitters aren’t really known for their home run prowess, but thanks to some favoritism from his Brew Crew buddy Fielder, Weeks will be digging in Monday night. Since being selected, Weeks is doing his best to come through for his teammate, hitting back-to-back jacks heading into Saturday. He’s stepped into the batter’s box at Chase Field 55 times in his career and recorded three home runs. Week is, however, coming off a career-high 29 dingers in 2010 and is on pace for another big year at the plate.

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Noteworthy info: The retractable roof at Chase Field will be closed for the majority of the All-Star events in Arizona, in order to protect fans and players from the desert heat. However, the Home Run Derby is the only event that will peel the lid off the field. Event planners will close the roof for the first two rounds of the derby, but open it for the finals. The heat and open air will change the dynamic of the park and help the ball carry further in the final round.

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**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 07:59 AM

MLB

Monday, July 11

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The best and worst MLB teams after the All-Star Break
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There are some teams that really round into form after the All-Star Break, and others that don’t.

Every year there seems to be a few surprising teams that get hot down the stretch. If you look at it over a longer time frame, though, the good teams shine and the bad teams sink. Here’s a look at the best and worst teams after the all-star break, looking at their combined record over the last four years:

The best

New York Yankees (181-110, .622)

It’s no surprise that the team built to make the postseason tends to heat up when the playoffs are on the horizon. Now, if only they could consistently keep that strong play going in October. There is little doubt that the Yankees can again close strong. They have a .600 winning percentage on the season, so they would only need to be slightly better down the stretch. They are in a reasonably unfamiliar situation right now - they actually have some starting pitching depth.

Philadelphia Phillies (180-111, .619)

The Phillies have been the best team in the National League since the All-Star break the last four years, and they won more games after the break than any other team last year. All they would have to do this year to win at the same pace as they have over the four years is to keep doing what they are doing. They have a .625 win percentage and with the pitching they have, it’s not hard to believe that they will - especially since there is a lot of improvement possible offensively.

Los Angeles Angels (165-124, .571)

The Rangers have been hot the last two years, but the Angels have been the established class of the AL West for a long time. Early in the year, it looked like they were in some real trouble, and they certainly are carrying some dead weight in their lineup. However, they are just a game behind the Rangers and playing well. They have gotten hot already, and there’s no reason to believe that they can’t keep it going.

The worst

Pittsburgh Pirates (102-188, .352)

Here’s a news flash: The Pirates have long been a lousy baseball team. Really lousy. They have started out weak and have tended to get weaker down the stretch. It hasn’t been pretty. This year, they’re actually looking respectable and are above .500 right now. That’s uncharted territory for this squad. They still aren’t a deep, talented team, so they could definitely fade down the stretch. But for once, they could be moving in the right direction.

Baltimore Orioles (114-176, .393)

No surprise here, either. The Orioles are pretty much the Pirates of the American League. They have been consistently bad for a long time and, despite some signs that they could be moving in the right direction, they are struggling again this year. Their pitchers are young and their lineup is inconsistent, so it’s not unreasonable to expect some late struggles again. The only reason for some optimism is that the team was solid down the stretch last year and much better than normal after Buck Showalter took over.

Kansas City Royals (119-167, .416)

If you are surprised by this one then you just aren’t paying attention. They have been almost as bad as the other two on this list. What’s remarkable is the consistency of their lousiness. They’ve only won between 28 and 32 games after the break in each of the last four years. They have reasons for long-term hope, but in the short term, it’s hard to believe that they will significantly overachieve down the stretch.

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**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 08:01 AM

MLB

Monday, July 11

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At the break: MLB betting stats of note
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Now that we've reached the All-Star break, let's take a quick look at some key baseball betting statistics.

13.15 – The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their resurgence and bettors are taking advantage of it, earning 13.15 units in Bucs games so far. The Pirates have been a fantastic road bet, earning more than 12 of those units away from home.

19.10 – The Houston Astros have a league-worst 30 wins so far and are also the worst bet in MLB, putting their supporters more than 19 units in the hole.

84.2 – The Philadelphia Phillies have won 84.2 percent of Roy Halladay’s starts this season as he’s won 16 of 19 trips to the hill. Halladay bettors have earned 11.87 units, tops in the majors.

11-3 – The home team has cashed in on 11 of John Hirschbeck’s 14 games behind home plate so far this season, clicking at better than a 78-percent clip.

31 – Jose Bautista has 31 home runs heading into the break and is set as a +330 favorite to win Monday’s Home Run Derby.

13.29 – The New York Mets are 27-22 on the road, earning supporters more than 13 units to date.

51-37 - The St. Louis Cardinals have played over in 51 games this season, the most in the big leagues.

50-35 – San Francisco has played under the total in more games than any team in the majors, checking in with a 50-35 clip heading into the All-Star break.

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**Udog** · 07-11-2011, 08:07 AM

Enjoy the break, guys!

WNBA begins this week's play tomorrow night.

This week's CFL schedule begins Thursday night.

Baseball resumes on Thursday. There are 7 games Thursday, then a full schedule again on Friday.

Announcement

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 7/11 ( MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 7/11 ( MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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