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West Coast Wars
July 10, 2011
Mariners at Angels (-125 & 6) - 3:35 pm (ET)
Sunday’s game of the day features a critical American League West matchup with two of the best pitchers in baseball this afternoon from Anaheim. The Angels’ Dan Haren (9-5, 2.65 ERA) is coming off his second shutout of the season and looks to be the same pitcher we saw dominate in April. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-7, 3.22 ERA) is coming off a no-decision where he went eight innings allowing only one run with strikeouts.
While Haren was figuring things out in May and June with sub-par performances compared to the standards most of us expect from him, Hernandez has been very consistent, sarcastically, in a sense that he rarely puts his team on his back for two straight games. The Mariners longest win streak with Hernandez starting has been three games. Seattle is currently on a rotating “Win one Lose one†routine with him for seven straight appearances.
For all of Hernandez’s press clippings and baseball people applauding his skills as a pitcher, his team is still only 11-8 this year when he takes the mound and yet he‘s a huge price in almost every one of his starts. He was a little sharper last season, but it was still hard to understand how a pitcher who goes 13-12 on a season can win the Cy Young award. Former Philadelphia Phillies standout Steve Carlton won 27 games with a team that lost 97 games. Now that’s a Cy Young award winner -- winning despite your team.
The trend that Hernandez has set says that it’s Seattle turn to lose and it‘s not hard to believe if we look at 2010. He faced the Angels five times last season going 0-3 with the M’s splitting the other two games where he didn’t get the decision.
Haren has pitched at Seattle twice already this season getting a no-decision in a 2-1 loss and winning 6-3 on June 13. But the best thing Haren has going for him right now is momentum of not allowing a run in his last two starts, each of which were 1-0 wins.
Haren is also on a run of three straight UNDER’s at home while Hernandez has kept the game UNDER in his last two road starts.
You won’t get many chances to bet Hernandez as an underdog this season despite his inconsistent nature just because his numbers keep his individual ratings high, which tells you how good Haren has been of late to be the favorite.
Padres at Dodgers (-113 & 6.5) - 4:10 (ET)
It’s hard for me to understand how some of the writers who vote for awards and other things that matter in baseball devalue wins as a measure of a pitchers success while praising how tough they are to score on, yet a pitcher like the Padres Tim Stauffer (5-5, 2.97 ERA) doesn’t get any love.
Maybe it’s because he plays for the Padres, who nobody watches or concerns themselves with, or just maybe nobody has started a campaign on his behalf. So let it start now and let me be the one to sing his credentials.
It may not get him the Cy Young like the sabermetric geniuses did for Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum and it certainly won’t get him into the All-Star game because Bruce Bochy has all the pitcher spots reserved for his guys, but at least the one Padres fan out there that googles his team can find some positive spin on how great Stauffer has been this season.
In the midst of Stauffer’s personal streak of three straight wins, we can pat him on the back even more by saying he might be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball since June 7. He’s had six starts with the Padres going 4-2 over that span. The two games San Diego lost was a 1-0 defeat at Minnesota and a 2-0 setback to the Nationals. In those losses, Stauffer only gave up one run in 14 innings of work.
In Stauffer’s last 42 innings of work he’s only allowed six earned runs. All he has needed this season was just a little run support and that is what he’s been given lately by the Padres. It may not be a lot of runs, but he doesn’t need it. Give him two runs and there is a better than average chance he is going to win the game.
The way the Dodgers and Padres have played the last two days, one run may win it. The Dodgers have taken the last two games by an identical score of 1-0, giving the Dodgers shutouts in three straight games.
After taking two of four from the first-place Giants -- with three of the games going OVER the total -- the Padres bats have laid down flat again.
But there’s something about the ace of a staff going where everyone focused a little bit more. The Padres won’t have a lot of great memories on the season, but it’s obvious that their play is a bit more inspired when Stauffer's on the mound. They have momentum with Stauffer and when a team is grasping for anything they can to get them fired up, their ace pitching well can be that spark every fifth day.
Taking the mound for the Dodgers as they try for four straight shutouts is Ted Lilly (5-9, 4.94 ERA) who has lost four straight and he’s been the primary reason. In three of the losses, Lilly gave up six runs in each.
The Dodgers are 2-0 with Lilly on the mound against the Padres while the Padres are 3-0 against the Dodgers in Stauffer’s last three starts dating back to last season.
Because of the last two games these teams have played, betting the OVER may sound like a stretch, but Lilly has generated quite a few runs in his last six starts with five of them soaring OVER the number. Stauffer has seen two of his last three starts go OVER just because the Padres bats came alive with him on the mound
Mets at Giants (-155 & 7) - 8:05 pm (ET)
An odd happening took place the last time Matt Cain (7-5, 3.22 ERA) took the mound, as the Giants lost at home with as the starter. It had happened only one other time this season in his seven starts, but the Padres knocked him around for five runs in a 5-3 loss. If we add his last two road starts into the mix, were looking at three Giants losses in his last four starts.
Those figures should be encouraging if looking to go against the weak hitting San Francisco bats and take a shot with the Mets, but then all of a sudden you realize that it’s Michael Pelfrey (5-7, 4.64 ERA) that has to be the pitcher to get you to the promised land. Based on Pelfrey’s (2-7) road record this year, getting only +145 may not sound like enough.
But we can look at the positive side of things and note that Pelfrey did win his last start on the road at Dodger stadium, a 6-0 win where he went six strong innings.
The current body of work each team as a group have put in over their last 10 games would indicate that the Mets are more together -- especially offensively -- as we head into Sunday night’s game. With incentive because of Cain’s recent struggles and Pelfrey breaking a five game road losing streak his last time out, +145 doesn’t sound too bad after all.
Another bonus in looking to take a shot with the Mets is that All-Star closer Brian Wilson (25 saves) has blown two saves and lost another game in his last five appearances. But these are the world champs and they relish in the opportunities to play in close games. Nobody does it better and Wilson is a big reason why.
Although Wilson gives the appearance that he’s a freak and nothing bothers him, blowing games does mess with his confidence. It also doesn't help that his manager iced him on the bench in a save situation last night, allowing Sergio Romo to seal the deal.
One bet that is highly advised against on the night is taking the Giants on the run-line who lead the league with a 25-12 record in one-run games.
July 10, 2011
Mariners at Angels (-125 & 6) - 3:35 pm (ET)
Sunday’s game of the day features a critical American League West matchup with two of the best pitchers in baseball this afternoon from Anaheim. The Angels’ Dan Haren (9-5, 2.65 ERA) is coming off his second shutout of the season and looks to be the same pitcher we saw dominate in April. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-7, 3.22 ERA) is coming off a no-decision where he went eight innings allowing only one run with strikeouts.
While Haren was figuring things out in May and June with sub-par performances compared to the standards most of us expect from him, Hernandez has been very consistent, sarcastically, in a sense that he rarely puts his team on his back for two straight games. The Mariners longest win streak with Hernandez starting has been three games. Seattle is currently on a rotating “Win one Lose one†routine with him for seven straight appearances.
For all of Hernandez’s press clippings and baseball people applauding his skills as a pitcher, his team is still only 11-8 this year when he takes the mound and yet he‘s a huge price in almost every one of his starts. He was a little sharper last season, but it was still hard to understand how a pitcher who goes 13-12 on a season can win the Cy Young award. Former Philadelphia Phillies standout Steve Carlton won 27 games with a team that lost 97 games. Now that’s a Cy Young award winner -- winning despite your team.
The trend that Hernandez has set says that it’s Seattle turn to lose and it‘s not hard to believe if we look at 2010. He faced the Angels five times last season going 0-3 with the M’s splitting the other two games where he didn’t get the decision.
Haren has pitched at Seattle twice already this season getting a no-decision in a 2-1 loss and winning 6-3 on June 13. But the best thing Haren has going for him right now is momentum of not allowing a run in his last two starts, each of which were 1-0 wins.
Haren is also on a run of three straight UNDER’s at home while Hernandez has kept the game UNDER in his last two road starts.
You won’t get many chances to bet Hernandez as an underdog this season despite his inconsistent nature just because his numbers keep his individual ratings high, which tells you how good Haren has been of late to be the favorite.
Padres at Dodgers (-113 & 6.5) - 4:10 (ET)
It’s hard for me to understand how some of the writers who vote for awards and other things that matter in baseball devalue wins as a measure of a pitchers success while praising how tough they are to score on, yet a pitcher like the Padres Tim Stauffer (5-5, 2.97 ERA) doesn’t get any love.
Maybe it’s because he plays for the Padres, who nobody watches or concerns themselves with, or just maybe nobody has started a campaign on his behalf. So let it start now and let me be the one to sing his credentials.
It may not get him the Cy Young like the sabermetric geniuses did for Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum and it certainly won’t get him into the All-Star game because Bruce Bochy has all the pitcher spots reserved for his guys, but at least the one Padres fan out there that googles his team can find some positive spin on how great Stauffer has been this season.
In the midst of Stauffer’s personal streak of three straight wins, we can pat him on the back even more by saying he might be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball since June 7. He’s had six starts with the Padres going 4-2 over that span. The two games San Diego lost was a 1-0 defeat at Minnesota and a 2-0 setback to the Nationals. In those losses, Stauffer only gave up one run in 14 innings of work.
In Stauffer’s last 42 innings of work he’s only allowed six earned runs. All he has needed this season was just a little run support and that is what he’s been given lately by the Padres. It may not be a lot of runs, but he doesn’t need it. Give him two runs and there is a better than average chance he is going to win the game.
The way the Dodgers and Padres have played the last two days, one run may win it. The Dodgers have taken the last two games by an identical score of 1-0, giving the Dodgers shutouts in three straight games.
After taking two of four from the first-place Giants -- with three of the games going OVER the total -- the Padres bats have laid down flat again.
But there’s something about the ace of a staff going where everyone focused a little bit more. The Padres won’t have a lot of great memories on the season, but it’s obvious that their play is a bit more inspired when Stauffer's on the mound. They have momentum with Stauffer and when a team is grasping for anything they can to get them fired up, their ace pitching well can be that spark every fifth day.
Taking the mound for the Dodgers as they try for four straight shutouts is Ted Lilly (5-9, 4.94 ERA) who has lost four straight and he’s been the primary reason. In three of the losses, Lilly gave up six runs in each.
The Dodgers are 2-0 with Lilly on the mound against the Padres while the Padres are 3-0 against the Dodgers in Stauffer’s last three starts dating back to last season.
Because of the last two games these teams have played, betting the OVER may sound like a stretch, but Lilly has generated quite a few runs in his last six starts with five of them soaring OVER the number. Stauffer has seen two of his last three starts go OVER just because the Padres bats came alive with him on the mound
Mets at Giants (-155 & 7) - 8:05 pm (ET)
An odd happening took place the last time Matt Cain (7-5, 3.22 ERA) took the mound, as the Giants lost at home with as the starter. It had happened only one other time this season in his seven starts, but the Padres knocked him around for five runs in a 5-3 loss. If we add his last two road starts into the mix, were looking at three Giants losses in his last four starts.
Those figures should be encouraging if looking to go against the weak hitting San Francisco bats and take a shot with the Mets, but then all of a sudden you realize that it’s Michael Pelfrey (5-7, 4.64 ERA) that has to be the pitcher to get you to the promised land. Based on Pelfrey’s (2-7) road record this year, getting only +145 may not sound like enough.
But we can look at the positive side of things and note that Pelfrey did win his last start on the road at Dodger stadium, a 6-0 win where he went six strong innings.
The current body of work each team as a group have put in over their last 10 games would indicate that the Mets are more together -- especially offensively -- as we head into Sunday night’s game. With incentive because of Cain’s recent struggles and Pelfrey breaking a five game road losing streak his last time out, +145 doesn’t sound too bad after all.
Another bonus in looking to take a shot with the Mets is that All-Star closer Brian Wilson (25 saves) has blown two saves and lost another game in his last five appearances. But these are the world champs and they relish in the opportunities to play in close games. Nobody does it better and Wilson is a big reason why.
Although Wilson gives the appearance that he’s a freak and nothing bothers him, blowing games does mess with his confidence. It also doesn't help that his manager iced him on the bench in a save situation last night, allowing Sergio Romo to seal the deal.
One bet that is highly advised against on the night is taking the Giants on the run-line who lead the league with a 25-12 record in one-run games.
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