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Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 6/30 ( MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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  • #16
    MLB


    Thursday, June 30


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    Capping the calendar: July's best and worst pitchers
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    Firecrackers and the All-Star Game signal the month of July. It also signifies the second half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every teams' fortunes lies in the pitching staff.

    Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a 2-to-1 or better success ratio in team starts during the month of July over the last three seasons. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts.

    To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

    GOOD JULY PITCHERS:

    Beckett, Josh • 8-4


    The Red Sox right hander has been battling a nasty illness which caused him to miss a start in the latter stages of June. Otherwise, he is having a career year in terms of ERA and holding hitters well below .200 BA for the first time ever and should prosper this month.

    Burnett, A.J. • 12-4

    Burnett’s ERA has been steadily climbing since early May. However, the hot summer months are when the Arkansas native usually flourishes. And if he can avoid the hanging breaking pitches, no reason he can’t match previous Julys.

    Carpenter, Chris • 9-3

    It’s been all about location for Carpenter this season. He’s been catching too much of the plate and has permitted his highest batting average allowed as a regular starter since 2002. The Cardinals will need him to regain form to stay in NL Central race without Albert Pujols in the lineup.

    Hamels, Cole • 12-5

    The left hander added a cutter this season and hitters are batting under .225 against Hamels and he’s only surrendered six bombs, with his previous season low total at 19 in 2006.

    Johnson, Josh • 11-3

    Good news from the doctors, no shoulder surgery necessary. If all goes well with rehab assignments, Florida’s ace is expected to return on July 16.

    Lackey, John • 12-4

    The former Angels ace always maintained at least a 2.5-to-1 strikeouts-to-walk ratio throughout his career. However, this season he’s not even 1.5-to-1 and has no command of his increasing mediocre stuff. He’ll need a major turnaround to be the hurler he’s been in the past this month.

    Lester, Jon • 10-4

    Lester’s stats this season are remarkably similar to what he’s done in the past and he can be expected to come through again for Boston this month. The only bugaboo is that he’s given up as many home runs (10) as he surrendered all of 2010.

    Nolasco, Ricky • 12-5

    After a sensational start, this Marlins pitcher hasn’t been able to close out hitters like he did early in the season. With the lack of strikeouts, more contact has meant more runs by the opposition. If Florida is going to get back in the wildcard hunt, it will need a big second half from Nolasco.

    Pineiro, Joel • 12-3

    Strictly a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, he has to keep the ball down or gives up hits in volume. For whatever reason, July has been a lucky month for the right hander.

    Rodriguez, Wandy • 11-5

    Rodriguez has been steadily lowering his ERA after a brutal start. On a contender, he might be a 15-game winner, but stuck with Houston, it’s hard to imagine Rodriguez can match past results unless he throws lights out.

    Sabathia, C.C. • 12-6

    Unquestionably talented, the big lefty also benefits from having a team full of run producers and can allow four runs early and still pick up a win. However, Sabathia is a workhorse, always wants the ball and will battle at least for seven innings with or without his best stuff.

    Vazquez, Javier • 10-4

    This Marlins pitcher will be 35 this month and is showing serious signs of decline. Vazquez has a career batting average allowed of .258 and this season opposing clubs are knocking him around to the tune of .300-plus.

    Volstad, Chris • 8-4

    Since his rookie season in 2008, Volstad has been very mediocre and the 6-foot-8 pitcher just seems to have mechanical issues of finding a consistent release point to throw strikes and not give up base hits in bunches. Maybe the extreme heat and humidity will help.


    BAD JULY PITCHERS:

    Dickey, R.A. • 3-8


    If the knuckleballer has his signature pitch dancing and darting, he’ll pick up K’s and have a good outing. If not, Dickey is throwing batting practice to hitters waiting to light him up.

    Greinke, Zack • 5-10

    His record does not reveal how average Greinke has pitched this campaign and how he’s benefitted from generous run support. Milwaukee is counting on him in the second half of the season, which historically isn’t a strength of Greinke’s.

    Wakefield, Tim • 3-8

    Wakefield’s rookie year, he was a teammate of Barry Bonds who would be spending his last season in Pittsburgh. At 44, Wakefield is Terry Francona’s security blanket when starting pitchers start falling, however, the more the knuckleballer is exposed, the worse the results.


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    • #17
      MLB
      Long Sheet


      Thursday, June 30


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      FLORIDA (35 - 45) at OAKLAND (36 - 45) - 3:35 PM
      CHRIS VOLSTAD (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)
      Top Trends for this game.
      FLORIDA is 72-100 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
      OAKLAND is 50-35 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
      CAHILL is 29-18 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
      CAHILL is 28-17 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
      FLORIDA is 101-98 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
      FLORIDA is 98-95 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
      FLORIDA is 57-49 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
      OAKLAND is 36-45 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
      OAKLAND is 35-43 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
      OAKLAND is 23-35 (-14.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      FLORIDA is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
      2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

      CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. OAKLAND since 1997
      No recent starts.

      TREVOR CAHILL vs. FLORIDA since 1997
      No recent starts.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      ST LOUIS (43 - 38) at BALTIMORE (35 - 42) - 7:05 PM
      JAIME GARCIA (L) vs. BRIAN MATUSZ (L)
      Top Trends for this game.
      ST LOUIS is 129-114 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      ST LOUIS is 57-67 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
      ST LOUIS is 127-113 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
      ST LOUIS is 37-40 (-17.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
      ST LOUIS is 64-62 (-19.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
      ST LOUIS is 71-67 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
      GARCIA is 9-16 (-15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
      BALTIMORE is 29-40 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
      BALTIMORE is 290-405 (-112.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters since 1997.
      BALTIMORE is 267-340 (-98.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997.
      BALTIMORE is 9-24 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      ST LOUIS is 2-0 (+2.3 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
      2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

      JAIME GARCIA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
      No recent starts.

      BRIAN MATUSZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
      No recent starts.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      PITTSBURGH (40 - 39) at TORONTO (40 - 41) - 7:07 PM
      JEFF KARSTENS (R) vs. BRETT CECIL (L)
      Top Trends for this game.
      PITTSBURGH is 9-26 (-14.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
      PITTSBURGH is 22-62 (-24.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
      PITTSBURGH is 24-76 (-45.8 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game since 1997.
      PITTSBURGH is 75-124 (-36.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
      TORONTO is 125-119 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      TORONTO is 30-20 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
      TORONTO is 100-88 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
      TORONTO is 64-63 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
      PITTSBURGH is 40-39 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
      PITTSBURGH is 21-19 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
      PITTSBURGH is 28-23 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
      PITTSBURGH is 33-32 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
      PITTSBURGH is 21-17 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      PITTSBURGH is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against TORONTO this season
      1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

      JEFF KARSTENS vs. TORONTO since 1997
      No recent starts.

      BRETT CECIL vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
      No recent starts.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TEXAS (43 - 38) at HOUSTON (28 - 53) - 8:05 PM
      MATT HARRISON (L) vs. WANDY RODRIGUEZ (L)
      Top Trends for this game.
      TEXAS is 12-23 (-14.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
      TEXAS is 14-18 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
      HOUSTON is 39-30 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
      HOUSTON is 37-35 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
      RODRIGUEZ is 13-5 (+9.2 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
      RODRIGUEZ is 16-5 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
      HOUSTON is 28-53 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
      HOUSTON is 8-26 (-17.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
      HOUSTON is 13-30 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
      HOUSTON is 6-18 (-12.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
      HOUSTON is 26-52 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
      HOUSTON is 19-36 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
      HOUSTON is 11-27 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      TEXAS is 4-1 (+2.1 Units) against HOUSTON this season
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

      MATT HARRISON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
      HARRISON is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.800.
      His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

      WANDY RODRIGUEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
      RODRIGUEZ is 3-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.49 and a WHIP of 1.481.
      His team's record is 3-2 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

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      • #18
        WNBA
        Long Sheet


        Thursday, June 30


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        NEW YORK (4 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 7) - 6/30/2011, 7:30 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games this season.
        ATLANTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
        ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
        ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
        ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
        ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
        ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        ATLANTA is 7-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
        ATLANTA is 6-6 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
        7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at TULSA (1 - 8) - 6/30/2011, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MINNESOTA is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
        MINNESOTA is 69-99 ATS (-39.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
        TULSA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        TULSA is 4-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
        MINNESOTA is 5-3 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
        5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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