The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Padres, Red Sox End Set At Fenway Park

Two teams headed in opposite directions finish their series on Wednesday as the San Diego Padres face the Boston Red Sox. Fenway Park will be the site of the ballgame that begins at 10:35 a.m. (PT).

Interleague play has given us a seemingly one-sided matchup with Boston having the best record in the American League and San Diego at the bottom of the National League West standings and the Padres going 1-9 in their last 10.

The first game of this series saw the Red Sox pound the Padres, 14-5. The loss had an extra sting to it as former Padre Adrian Gonzalez tallied up three hits, three RBIs, and two runs against his old club.

They scored those 14 runs without outfielder Carl Crawford, who was placed on the DL on Saturday.

Scoring runs has really been the problem for San Diego all season. The Padres are at the bottom of the entire league in runs scored and rank near the bottom in other offensive categories. To put that in perspective, the Red Sox have outscored them by almost 150 runs on the season and have played two fewer games.

To be fair, the Sox are at or near the top in about every important offensive category which is a tough comparison for any team.

Clayton Richard (2-9, 4.35 ERA) gets the nod for the Padres and he will try to slow down the Boston offense. The lefty has an awful record, an even worse 3-12 team record in his starts, and has not scored a win in over a month. However, he has given up just three runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Quite simply, the offense is not helping him out.

Starting on the other side will be John Lackey (5-5, 7.02 ERA) who has picked up a decision in all 10 of his outings this year. While Lackey has that high ERA, he is 3-0 in his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.07. Furthermore, four of his five wins have come in day games.

In interleague matchups, the Padres are 16-38 in their last 54 games while the Red Sox are 81-30 in their last 111.

The ‘over’ is 8-1-1 in Boston’s last 10 home games as well as 12-5-2 in the last 19 overall. As for the Padres, the ‘over’ is 10-2-1 in their last 13 in Game 3 of a series.

Fenway should be 70 degrees with a 35 percent chance of rain by game time.

[StarDust Bum]

Philadelphia Phillies Battle Cardinals Minus Pujols

The St. Louis Cardinals are learning to play without their top player in Albert Pujols, who is expected to miss up to six weeks with a fractured left wrist. The Philadelphia Phillies know what that is like as they did not have All-Star second baseman Chase Utley for the first 46 games of the season due to a knee injury.

Fortunately, both the Cardinals and Phillies have been able to rely on strong starting pitching to carry them to early divisional leads heading into the second game of a three-game series at Busch Stadium on Wednesday. Game time is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. (PT) with ESPN providing the television coverage.

Philadelphia was 15-9 with Utley back in the lineup since his return on May 23 heading into the series opener with St. Louis on Tuesday. Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee (7-5, 3.12 ERA) has earned four of those wins and gets the nod in the midst of his best stretch of the year.

The ‘under’ is 2-1 in his last three starts and had cashed in four straight overall for the team going into this series.

Lee has allowed only one run over his past three starts totaling 24 innings – all at home – while walking five and striking out 21. He is coming off a two-hit, complete-game shutout last Thursday against Florida in which he walked two and struck out four.

However, he has struggled on the road with a 1-4 mark and 5.35 ERA in six starts. Lee is 2-1 lifetime vs. St. Louis with a 2.11 ERA.

While Lee has been at his best lately, the same cannot be said for Cardinals pitcher Kyle Lohse (7-3, 2.88). After going 4-1 in Lohse’s first five starts of the season, St. Louis is 4-5 when he pitches since then. Lohse has given up four runs in each of his last three starts after allowing more than two just once in his previous 10.

The ‘over’ is 2-0-1 in his past three outings and was 7-1-2 in the team’s previous 10 games prior to the series opener.

The biggest concern for the Cardinals though with Pujols out is obviously how they will try to replace the offense generated by one of the top sluggers in all of baseball. Pujols was hitting .317 with eight home runs and 14 RBIs in 17 June games before the injury.

The signing of Lance Berkman in the offseason has turned out to be an outstanding move for St. Louis, and he will be counted on to fill the void left by Pujols at first base. Berkman has been slumping recently, failing to register more than one hit in his previous nine games going into Tuesday. But he had still totaled six homers and 14 RBIs through his first 15 games of June.

The game-time weather forecast calls for 78 degrees under partly sunny skies after isolated thunderstorms pass through the area earlier in the day.

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Wednesday

June 21, 2011




NATIONAL LEAGUE


Philadelphia at St. Louis - 8:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lee (7-5, 3.12 ERA) 8-2 L10 2-6 L8 away Game 2's
Lohse (7-3, 2.88 ERA) 2-7 L9 7-4 home vs LHP





INTERLEAGUE


Baltimore at Pittsburgh - 12:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Britton (6-4, 3.10 ERA) 3-3 L6 3-1 L4 away during day
Correia (8-6, 3.60 ERA) 0-4 L4 1-9 home Game 3's




N.Y. Yankees at Cincinnati - 12:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Garcia (5-6, 3.63 ERA) 6-1 L7 5-0 L5 away Game 3's
Leake (6-3, 4.04 ERA) 5-5 L10 OVER 11-4 home during day




Toronto at Atlanta - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Reyes (3-5, 4.18 ERA) 4-6 L10 5-10 away during day
Beachy (1-1, 3.45 ERA) 3-5 L8 UNDER 8-3 home during day




San Diego at Boston - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Richard (2-9, 4.35 ERA) 1-9 L10 OVER 8-2 away Game 3's
Lackey (5-5, 7.02 ERA) 14-2 L16 10-3 home during day




Tampa Bay at Milwaukee - 2:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Price (7-6, 3.61 ERA) 5-2 L7 8-2 L10 away during day
Marcum (7-2, 2.85 ERA) 2-6 L8 8-3 home Game 3's




Detroit at Los Angeles (N) - 3:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Porcello (6-5, 4.18 ERA) 5-5 L10 8-4 away vs LHP
Lilly (5-6, 4.26 ERA) 2-5 L7 2-5 L7 home Game 3's




Seattle at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Bedard (4-4, 3.16 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 6-0 L6 away Game 2's
Lannan (4-5, 3.52 ERA) 8-1 L9 9-2 home vs LHP




Colorado at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hammel (4-6, 4.00 ERA) 5-1 L6 4-9 L13 away vs RHP
Tomlin (8-4, 3.93 ERA) 5-3 L8 7-4 home Game 3's




Los Angeles (A) at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pineiro (3-3, 3.92 ERA) 5-2 L7 6-3 L9 away Game 3's
Sanches (3-1, 1.93 ERA) 0-11 L11 1-11 L12 home vs RHP




Oakland at N.Y. Mets - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gonzalez (6-5, 2.69 ERA) 5-0 L5 4-8 away Game 2's
Dickey (3-7, 4.00 ERA) 5-5 L10 5-2 L7 home vs LHP




Houston at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Myers (3-6, 4.75 ERA) 2-5 L7 3-7 away Game 3's
Lewis (6-7, 4.80 ERA) 3-6 L9 2-5 L7 home vs RHP




Chicago (N) at Chicago (A) - 8:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Davis (1-5, 4.95 ERA) 5-3 L8 3-7 L10 away vs RHP
Peavy (2-1, 4.66 ERA) 2-4 L6 2-5 L7 home Game 3's




Arizona at Kansas City - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Kennedy (7-2, 2.98 ERA) 2-4 L6 UNDER 6-2 away vs LHP
Francis (3-7, 4.83 ERA) 1-4 L5 2-5 L7 home Game 2's




Minnesota at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Blackburn (6-4, 3.16 ERA) 7-0 L7 3-7 L10 away vs RHP
Vogelsong (4-1, 1.92 ERA) 0-4 L4 UNDER 6-1 L7 home Game 2's

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, June 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 12:35 PM ET Baltimore -104 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

NY Yankees - 12:35 PM ET Cincinnati -106 500
Cincinnati - Under 9.5 500

Toronto - 1:05 PM ET Atlanta -138 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500

San Diego - 1:35 PM ET San Diego +191 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Detroit - 3:10 PM ET Detroit +103 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

June 22, 2011


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 17-0 since July 26, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1700.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The White Sox are 11-0 OU since July 05, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rays are 11-0 since July 09, 2009 when David Price starts after walking at least 4 last outing for a net profit of $1110.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 16-0 (+4.6 rpg) since 2006 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they are off a win in which they had fewer than five team=left-on-base.


TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Rangers are 11-0 since May 07, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a game in which they scored in at least five separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100.

The Dodgers are 5-0 since May 12, 2010 after playing as a dog and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two for a net profit of $640.

The Braves are 0-8 OU since May 02, 2010 as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

[StarDust Bum]

Cliff Lee looks to add to Cardinals woes


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (46-28)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (40-34)


First pitch: Wednesday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -150, St. Louis +140, Total: 7.5

Things aren’t getting any easier for the Cardinals. They lost Albert Pujols to a broken arm on Sunday, blew a chance to beat Roy Halladay on Tuesday, and now go up against another Cy Young candidate on Wednesday when Cliff Lee takes the hill in St. Louis.

Considering how badly things are going for the Cards right now, it’s tough to see them beating Lee. The pick here is Philadelphia.The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that’s working against the Cards:

Play Against - Any team (ST. LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (63-37 over the last 5 seasons, 63%, +37.1 units. Rating = 3*)

It looked like St. Louis would gut out a win over Halladay and the Phils Tuesday night, as Skip Schumaker’s sac fly in the bottom of the seventh gave them a 2-1 lead. Then Tony La Russa turned to the bullpen. Five Cardinals relievers combined to allow nine runs in the eighth inning, and Philadelphia ran away with a 10-2 victory.

On Wednesday, the Phillies will go with Lee (7-5, 3.12 ERA), and the left-hander has been dominant of late. He’s won his past three starts while allowing just one run and 13 hits over 24 innings. However, all three of those wins were in Philadelphia. Lee has been a little shakier on the road in his first season back with the Phillies. He’s 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA over six road starts this season, including an uncharacteristically wild outing in St. Louis on May 16 (six walks, six hits and three runs allowed in 6.1 innings in a loss). Lee is 2-1 in three career starts versus St. Louis, posting a 2.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

After two injury-plagued seasons, Lohse (7-3, 2.88 ERA) has been one of the surprises of 2011. He’s hit a rough patch lately, though. The right-hander is winless over his past three starts, allowing four runs each time (over a total of 16.2 innings).

A former Phillie for half a season, Lohse has never had success against his old team. He’s lost his past three starts against the Phillies, failing to go more than 4.1 in any of those outings. Since leaving Philadelphia to sign with St. Louis in 2008, he has a 5.96 ERA over five starts against the Phils.

Several Phils have torched Lohse over the years, including OF Raul Ibanez (.971 OPS over 35 plate appearances), 3B Placido Polanco (.364 batting average in 24 PAs) and 1B Ryan Howard (1.280 OPS in 17 PAs).

[StarDust Bum]

Cubs play rubber match at White Sox

CHICAGO CUBS (30-43, -12.6 Units)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (36-39, -5.1 Units)


First Pitch: Wednesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: White Sox -175, Cubs +165, Total: 8.5

The Cubs and White Sox complete their three-game series on Wednesday when Doug Davis (1-5, 4.95 ERA) takes on Jake Peavy (2-1, 4.66 ERA). The two teams have split the first two games of this series, and the Cubs will be trying to avoid losing their sixth straight interleague series.

Peavy has dominated the Cubs in his career, while Davis has struggled recently against the White Sox. With Chi Sox slugger Paul Konerko on fire (five straight games with a homer), expect the White Sox to win the series on Wednesday.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends backing the South Siders.

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. (202-73 since 1997.) (73.5%, +78.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL. (108-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +55.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Davis finally snapped his streak of eight straight winless starts when he went 7.1 innings and allowed just one run and three hits in defeating the Yankees at Wrigley Field. The Cubs had lost all six of Davis’ previous starts, while he posted an ERA of 5.90 and allowed 54 base runners in 29 innings. Davis is 0-3 with a 5.23 ERA in his past four starts against the White Sox.

Jake Peavy takes the mound after a stint on the DL with a groin pull. Peavy last started on June 5 against the Tigers when he threw just four innings in his shortest outing of the season. He allowed six runs on three hits and three walks. Before that outing, Peavy began his season 2-0 in four starts, posting a 3.24 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP with 16 K and just 1 BB in his 25 innings pitched. Peavy defeated the Cubs twice last season while allowing just two runs (1.29 ERA) and 12 base runners (0.86 WHIP) in his 14 innings pitched. Overall in his career, Peavy is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 65 K in 60 IP in 10 starts against the Cubbies.

The Cubs have now clinched a losing June for the third straight season, dropping 13 of the 20 games this month. The White Sox have won three of four games allowing two runs or fewer in three of those games. Paul Konerko has been scalding for the White Sox for almost a month now. He is hitting .446 (33-for-74) with 11 HR and 22 RBI in his past 20 games. On Tuesday he homered for the fifth straight game, tying a team record held by four other players and last accomplished by Carlos Lee in 2003. Starlin Castro has been hot for the Cubs collecting two or more hits in nine of his past 13 games, hitting .407 (22-for-54) with 11 runs scored over that span.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/22/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*950 Detail


Colorado - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -120 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Washington -107 500
Washington - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 7:10 PM ET LA Angels -104 500
Florida - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -111 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -132 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Houston - 8:05 PM ET Houston +189 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +172 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 8:10 PM ET Arizona -116 500
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis +138 500
St. Louis - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -140 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500