The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !

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MLB Betting: SF Giants host Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds generally break out their lucky bats when Edinson Volquez is on the mound. Volquez has gotten off to a rocky start this season but the Reds are still 7-4 when he starts a game.

That +3 in the Win column is big for the defending NL Central winners as they close their 4-game set series in San Francisco. ESPN's Sunday prime-time broadcast has the first pitch a little past 5:00 p.m. (PT) in the twilight of AT&T Park. The Giants will send left-hander Jonathan Sanchez to the mound.

The clubs split the first two games of the series, each closing as picks on the MLB money line and each staying 'under' the total. Saturday's matinee was still pending with San Francisco 155 chalk behind starting pitcher Tim Lincecum.

Cincinnati is treading water just at the .500 mark and starting pitching is to blame for the club struggling to stay afloat in the NL Central standings. The offense and the bullpen have come to rescue when Volquez (7-4, 5.74) takes the hill, but have not been able to bail the team out with Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood pitching (11-16 combined).

This will be Volquez's second start since returning from his demotion to Triple-A, and he is off a 7-inning winning result at home vs. the Cubs (1 ER, 5 K).

The right-hander has made four starts during his career vs. the Giants with the Reds 2-2 in those outings. Volquez has a very ugly 8.31 ERA in those games, the bulk of which came last season here at AT&T Park when he failed to make it out of the first with San Francisco scoring five times.

Bruce Bochy has the opposite problem that Dusty Baker has with the Reds. The Giants are getting outstanding starting pitching with 40 of their first 64 contests going into the record books as quality starts. An offense that ranks 29th in the majors in scoring (3.50 runs per game) is keeping the club from running away and hiding in the NL West.

Sanchez (7-6, 3.51) got off to a fine start this season with the Giants winning four of his first six assignments while the lefty posted a 2.73 ERA through April. Control issues have sent him and the Giants south since that point, San Fran winning just three of his last seven starts with Sanchez's ERA at 4.13 in that span. Two outings in June have seen Sanchez issue 11 free passes over a combined 10 1/3 innings.

His two outings vs. the Reds a season ago weren't pretty with a loss and a no-decision. Sanchez surrendered eight runs over 9 1/3 frames. Ironically, his offense did come to his rescue in the one home start last August after Sanchez served up three long balls and lasted just 4 1/3 frames.

One new injury note for the Giants concerns second baseman Freddy Sanchez who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Friday night's victory. He's officially listed as day-to-day, but the Giants wasted little time claiming Bill Hall off waivers to possibly fill in long term.

Mike Estabrook is scheduled to work the plate for Sunday's game. He brings a 4-2 'over' mark into the contest with home favorites 3-1 in his plate assignments.

The Reds will move down the coast to Los Angeles to begin a 3-game series with the Dodgers on Monday. San Francisco takes Monday off before starting a 6-game road trip in Arizona on Tuesday.

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MLB Odds: Padres, Nats close series at Petco Park

The teams currently at the bottom of the NL East and NL West go head-to-head as the Washington Nationals take on the San Diego Padres. Petco Park in San Diego will host the action on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. (PT).

This game features a couple of right-handed starters who may not have great records but have been pitching well of late. As for offense, just trust that subject can wait because it sure is not pretty for either club.

Young Jordan Zimmermann (4-6, 3.39 ERA) gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers are distinctly better on the road than they are at home. Zimmermann has only recorded one win in Washington and that is the only win the team has picked up in his home starts as well.

Keep in mind, though, that he has a nice overall WHIP of 1.12.

Away from Nationals Park this season he is 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09. In his last three contests, Zimmermann is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA. Take out his home start three games ago and the numbers are even more impressive. In his last two overall, which were on the road, he gave up just two runs and 11 hits picking up two wins in 14 innings pitched. His arm shouldn’t be tired either since his pitch count was under 100 in both games.

As for San Diego, the team is No. 4 in baseball in ERA (3.21).

Sunday’s starter Tim Stauffer (2-4, 3.58 ERA) has gotten the Padres to a team record over .500 in his starts (7-6). While his personal record is bad at home (1-3), his ERA is under his overall number there and he’s also coming off a shutout win at Petco Park against the Colorado Rockies on June 7. Stauffer threw just 97 pitches in eight innings in that outing.

These starters faced each other just a couple weeks ago in Washington on May 28. The runs were hard to come by for both teams as Stauffer and the Padres picked up the win, 2-1.

Speaking of runs being hard to come by, the Padres are dead last in baseball in runs scored and the Nats are in the bottom 10 of that category, too. Both teams can be found at or toward the bottom of the ranks in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, RBIs, hits, and more.

In fact, Washington and San Diego have struck out more than any other team in Major League Baseball by a large margin.

Along with those facts are many trends supporting the ‘under’ in this matchup. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the Nationals’ last 10 overall, 4-0 in Zimmermann’s last four starts overall, and 19-8-1 in Stauffer’s last 28 overall starts.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
06/11/11 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*955 Detail
06/10/11 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*890 Detail
06/09/11 10-*16-*0 38.46% -*3505 Detail
06/08/11 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1370 Detail
06/07/11 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1400 Detail
06/06/11 9-*13-*0 40.91% -*2220 Detail
06/05/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2515 Detail
06/04/11 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*65 Detail
06/03/11 14-*16-*0 46.67% -*1095 Detail
06/02/11 8-*3-*1 72.73% +*2485 Detail
06/01/11 15-*13-*1 53.57% +*1345 Detail
Totals 143-*138-*4 50.89% -*635

Sunday, June 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 1:05 PM ET Cleveland +143 500
NY Yankees - Over 10 500

Seattle - 1:05 PM ET Seattle -103 500
Detroit - Over 7 500

Boston - 1:07 PM ET Toronto +157 500
Toronto - Under 9 500

Arizona - 1:10 PM ET Florida +110 500
Florida - Over 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:35 PM ET Baltimore -121 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

NY Mets - 1:35 PM ET Pittsburgh -108 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 1:35 PM ET Chi. Cubs +186 500
Philadelphia - Over 8.5 500

Atlanta - 2:05 PM ET Houston +145 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Oakland - 2:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -141 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

Texas - 2:10 PM ET Minnesota +110 500
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 2:10 PM ET St. Louis +142 500
Milwaukee - Under 8 500

LA Dodgers - 3:10 PM ET LA Dodgers +185 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

Kansas City - 3:35 PM ET Kansas City +136 500
LA Angels - Over 9 500

Washington - 4:05 PM ET Washington +104 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Cincinnati - 8:05 PM ET San Francisco -110 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500

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Sunday Night Baseball: Reds at Giants

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (-120)

The World Series champion San Francisco Giants go under ESPN’s Sunday night spotlight when they take on the Cincinnati Reds.

ON THE ROAD, SLEEPING AT HOME

Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker is no stranger to the city of San Francisco or AT&T Ballpark. After all, he spent a decade as Giants skipper, leading them to the National League pennant in 2002, which was his final season by the bay.

Although he followed that stint with four years managing the Cubs and is now in his fourth year with the Reds, Baker still has strong ties to San Francisco, where he has a house a mere 10 minutes from the ballpark. He’s looking forward to that, particularly as he suffers through allergy season in Cincinnati.

“I’ll be better (in San Francisco), because my allergies have bothered me,” Baker told YahooSports on Friday, before Game 2 of this four-game weekend set. “I’ll be in my own bed and with my family – and I’ll get to go fishing Saturday afternoon after the game.”

But as much as he enjoys the homecoming, he’s hardly discounting the games.

“It’s nice to go home, but I want to leave home with some victories,” he said.

He certainly needs to, with the defending NL Central champion Reds sitting third in the division right now. Cincy opened the series with a 3-0 win Thursday, then lost 3-2 Friday night before rebounding with a 10-2 win Saturday.

It’s also a sort of homecoming for Edgar Renteria, who is now with the Reds. Renteria had a clutch three-run homer off Cliff Lee to lift the Giants over the Rangers in Game 5 of the World Series last year. The World Series MVP got his ring before Thursday’s game.

INJURY BUG BITES AGAIN

The Giants, already on the short end of catcher Buster Posey’s gruesome injury and third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s fractured right hand, took another hit in Friday’s victory. This time, standout second baseman Freddy Sanchez dislocated his right shoulder trying to make a diving stab at a grounder.

Sanchez not only plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, he’s the one position player for San Francisco who has a legitimate chance at an All-Star slot and also leads the Giants with a .289 BA. The team has now lost its No. 2, 3 and 4 hitters to injury.

Sanchez had an MRI Saturday.

“How severe, how long… obviously it’s not good news,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy told YahooSports. “We feel horrible for Freddy. A great player who we’ll certainly miss. But (we’ll) keep fighting.”

RETURN OF VOLQUEZ

Edinson Volquez (4-2, 5.74 ERA) will start for the Reds Sunday -- his second outing since returning from a two-week stint at Triple-A Louisville. Apparently, the demotion worked. On Tuesday, the right-hander had his best effort of the season, allowing one run on seven hits in seven innings of an 8-2 home rout of the Cubs.

Volquez has three career starts against the Giants, and on the plus side, he’s gone 2-1. On the minus side, he’s got a whopping 8.31 ERA in 13 innings pitched.

His counterpart Sunday is San Francisco southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (4-4, 3.51 ERA), who has four career starts against Cincinnati, going 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA. In his last 10 starts, the Giants have alternated wins and losses, most recently falling to Washington 2-1 at home Tuesday. So in keeping with that streak, perhaps San Francisco is due to win today.

NOTEWORTHY NUMBERS

The Reds are on slides of 4-10 on the highway and 19-41 in roadies against winning teams. And with Volquez throwing, they are in ruts of 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 on the road and 1-4 on Sundays. And Game 4s haven’t really agreed with Cincy lately. The squad has dropped the finale of its last six four-game series.

On the flip side, the Giants are on upswings of 7-4 overall, 14-7 at home and 7-2 at AT&T when Sanchez takes the ball.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting MLB domination as much mental as statistical

The baseball season is just over one third complete and, like the weather, it's time for a hot stretch. Fortunately for baseball bettors skilled in unearthing the mountain of statistical data available, there is always a place to find information that can build a bankroll.

Too often sports bettors sift through material attempting to find the one gold nugget that leads to riches, when sometimes the simplest of sports betting info is more readily obtainable than a Groupon coupon.

Here is one angle that arrives each season and is a consistent winner for a certain period of time.

There are two aspects to this angle and they are as follows:

- Play on home teams that have defeated an opponent better than .667 percent of the time with a minimum of a dozen games to qualify.

- Play on road teams that have won over .610 percent of the time against opposing club in their own ballpark, with a minimum of nine games played.

Since discovering this perspective five years ago, the window of opportunity is a moving target, and baseball bettors not only have to be aware, but be ready to fire. This trend can start anytime and end abruptly.

From 2007-10, the record is 360-212 (62.9 percent) from the actual starting point until it starts to level off the past four seasons. Unfortunately, like any research, the precise beginning isn’t known until the winning has begun and the exact end only manifests itself with uneven results.

Based on prior years, there is still ample opportunity to profit, as we are now at 32 days of the cycle that has lasted anywhere from six and a half weeks to two months. The results to date this season have been even better than in the past at 73-42, and up 27.42 units (Thru June 8, 2011).

Last weekend was a perfect example of how quickly the profits can mount. Texas and Minnesota were both on the road and going into a four-game series from opposite points of view. The Rangers were on a 6-3 run, having won three consecutive series and arrived in Cleveland feeling spry. Texas had been the victor in seven of its last nine meetings with the Indians in Ohio.

The Twins headed to Kansas City in a season-long funk. Because of injuries, poor pitching and a lack of offense, Minnesota came to beef country on a four-game losing skid and towing the worst record in baseball. The Twinkies’ one potential saving grace was that they had won 13 of the past 21 conflicts at Kauffman Stadium.

By Sunday night, Texas and Minnesota had each pulled a rare feat - winning four straight times at a visiting ballpark. However, they both started with a feeling of confidence since they had been victorious there before. Wagering on every contest yielded profits of 9.40 units.

Those are extreme cases and a more likely scenario was what happened in San Francisco. The Giants’ offense has been below average all season, yet they were probably feeling better with Colorado coming into town. They had a 15-6 record against the Rockies at AT&T Park the last few campaigns. It turned out San Fran’s offense would still struggle, scoring only six runs in three games. Nonetheless, that was enough to take the series and followers of this wagering method picked up an extra unit.

This type of domination happens in all sports in short windows, but why? Sometimes the talent differential can explain why this occurs, but it’s not the only reason. Texas is a better overall team than Cleveland, but the Tribe have the best home record in the big leagues. Minnesota clearly has not been better than Kansas City and the difference in talent between San Francisco and Colorado is minimal at best.

“I would say it's all about levels of comfort and acceptance,” explained Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “Teams that have dominated an opponent in the recent past have that ‘been there, done that’ confidence. On the flip side, the opponent has become accustomed to losing and as a result develops a demeanor that prepares them to accept, and expect, defeat. It's all a mind game, but the power of the mind can be a decisive edge with talent at this level.”

This upcoming weekend presents wagering opportunities, though bettors need certain outcomes to set the wheels into motion. Minnesota has taken eight of nine when Texas hits the Twin Cities and this might be too good to wait on. If Seattle and Oakland both win the first game of their four-game series, they are play-on material since they began the road series with a 7-5 edge.

Plays that are already featured are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 13-7 at Coors Field, and San Diego, which is 22-6 versus Washington on its home turf. In addition, we have Tampa Bay with a 13-8 record at Baltimore.

Happy hunting with baseball domination. If you have any feedback or suggestions for our Editorial Team, please contact us at Editorial