The Bum's Belmont Picks Races 6 - 11 Best Bets !

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Horse Racing Odds: Animal Kingdom favorite

The 2011 Belmont Stakes has everything a bettor would want in handicapping a major North American horse race without the threat of a Triple Crown-winning entry. Versus will have coverage at Belmont Park from 12:00 to 2:00 p.m. (PT) before NBC’s coverage takes over at 2:00 (PT), with the big race expected to go to post at 3:35 (PT) on Saturday afternoon.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (2/1) has been established as the morning line favorite and will be racing out of post position No. 9. He will be one of 12 three-year-old horses racing around the 1 1/2-mile oval at Belmont Park in hopes of gaining the winner’s share of the $1 million dollar purse.

Animal Kingdom’s trainer Graham motion is aware of the No. 9 post producing just four winners in the Triple Crown’s third leg since 1905, as his horse hopes to become the 12th to complete a Derby-Belmont sweep.

Jockey John Velazquez has been aboard for both the Derby and Preakness, leading the three-year-old chestnut out of Leroidesanimaux to a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in each race. Velazquez knows Saturday’s track better than most, amassing 1,501 of his 4,577 career victories at Belmont Park, including seven meet riding titles.

Preakness winner Shackleford (9/2) is getting little respect for his effort two weeks ago and many experts are pointing to jockey Jesus Castanon’s 5-for-41 mark at Belmont Park, as all five victories came in the summer of 2009.

Being drawn to the outside post will also limit his ability as a speed horse to win this race. Belmont Park is difficult to navigate for riders that are unfamiliar with the course, as its the only 1 1/2-mile track in North America. Churchill Downs and Pimlico, where the Derby and Preakness are run, are both a mile in circumference.

With improving Beyer Speed Figures in three consecutive races and a freshening since a second-place finish in the Derby, Nehro (4/1) is receiving plenty of attention leading into the weekend. He is one of eight horses who ran at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May and now finds himself in New York.

Trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Ahmed Zayat made the decision not to wheel back their talented horse in the Preakness and aim directly at this particular race.

“The Preakness was a huge temptation,” said Asmussen while Nehro was training over the Belmont Park track Thursday morning. “We talked about it considerably.”

It may be a wise decision, considering that in the past five Belmonts, none of the winners came out of the Preakness. Also, Afleet Alex in 2005 was the last Belmont winner to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown series.

Brilliant Speed (15/1) is another entry that has had five weeks off and has already proven to run well after time off. He won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland after a break of more than five weeks from competition.

The rest of the field lines up in the following order from the rail out: Master of Hounds (10/1), Stay Thirsty (20/1), Ruler On Ice (20/1), Santiva (15/1), Monzon (30/1), Prime Cut (15/1), Mucho Macho Man (10/1), Isn’t He Perfect (30/1).

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Belmont Stakes Odds

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143rd Belmont Stakes

Post Horse Trainer Jockey *Morning Line Odds

1 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien Garrett Gomez 10/1

2 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 20/1

3 Ruler On Ice Kelly Breen Jose Valdivia Jr. 20/1

4 Santiva Eddie Kenneally Shaun Bridgmohan 15/1

5 Brilliant Speed Tom Albertrani Joel Rosario 15/1

6 Nehro Steve Asmussen Corey Nakatani 4/1

7 Monzon Ignacio Correas IV Jose Lezcano 30/1

8 Prime Cut Neil Howard Edgar Prado 15/1

9 Animal Kingdom Graham Motion John Velazquez 2/1

10 Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo Ramon Dominguez 10/1

11 Isn't He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal Rajiv Maragh 30/1

12 Shackleford Dale Romans Jesus Castanon 9/2





*Odds provided by Belmont Park Head Oddsmaker Eric Donovan

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Belmont Stakes Breakdown

June 10, 2011

143rd Belmont Stakes Odds


Belmont Stakes Breakdown
Post - Horse (ML Odds) Jockey (Belmont record) Trainer (Belmont record)

1. Master of Hounds (10-1) Garrett Gomez (0-5) Aidan O'Brien (Debut)

For the record, since late March, this colt has traveled from his home base in Ireland to Dubai for the G2 UAE Derby where he was a gutsy second, albeit to a filly, back to Ireland, over to Churchill for the G1 Kentucky Derby where he was a sneaky-good fifth, back to Ireland and now back to Belmont. I'm sure he has plenty of frequent flyer miles but he can't redeem them at the 3/8ths pole on Saturday. That much traveling WILL take its toll. Not maybe, or can. WILL. When you add in the facts that he's somewhat of the "wiseguy" horse in the race, his connections are plenty well known to the point where it will affect his price and the fact that he is eligible for an entry level allowance race, I think the only thing to do is toss him.

2. Stay Thirsty (20-1) Javier Castellano (0-4) Todd Pletcher (1-10)

I like his pedigree best to handle this trip. His half brother Andromeda's Hero was second to Afleet Alex in the 2005 Belmont and his sire Bernardini is throwing nothing but runners of all kinds. On paper, his last two are terrible but he didn't care for the heat, surface or blinkers in the G1 Florida Derby two back and basically trained over a wet track for three weeks leading up to the Derby. His jockey did jump ship to ride another but Castellano is riding as good as anyone right now. He'll be more forwardly placed in here and will be able to use his most precious commodity, his speed, much more to his advantage in here that he has in his last few starts. Pletcher won this with the spectacular filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and it wouldn't surprise me if this guy could give him his second Belmont at a juicy price. I'm using him on all my tickets.

3. Ruler On Ice (20-1) Jose Valdivia, Jr. (Debut) Kelly Breen (Debut)

Couldn't handle foes in G3 Sunland Derby two back when third before a runner-up performance in Pimlico's prep for the G1 Preakness, the Tesio. Adding blinkers for the Belmont, his G1 debut, which I always find absurd. Why make such an important equipment change in the biggest race of a horses' life? Those blinkers could play a key part in this event though as I have to think this guy will be the one to keep Preakness winner Shackleford company on the lead. As for this guy, he's a complete throw out.

4. Santiva (15-1) Shaun Bridgmohan (Debut) Eddie Kenneally (Debut)

Like this colt's pedigree but not much else. He did have a rough trip in the G1 Blue Grass two back, his final Derby prep, and ran on late to finish 6th in Louisville but was he just passing tired horses? Master of Hound came running with him and finished just ahead of him but looked lengths more impressive than this one. Plus, I'm not sure what kind of trip he's gonna sit. Price looks like it could be good but too many question marks for me to use him.

5. Brilliant Speed (15-1) Joel Rosario (0-1) Tom Albertrani (0-1)

Almost could have copy and pasted what I wrote about Brilliant Speed for this colt, especially in regards to his Derby try. Has running winning races in all his turf and synthetic starts, including his last to first score in the Blue Grass, but his dirt races are suspect at best. Pedigree makes me think the trip shouldn't be an issue but I'm starting to think conventional dirt is a major one. Even the presence of Rosario, who is one of my favorite jockeys out there right now, couldn't change my mind. I'm throwing him out.

6. Nehro (4-1) Corey Nakatani (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-1)

Has made what have looked like three winning moves in his last three starts yet managed to never get the money. I'll give him a pass in the G2 Louisiana Derby, his stakes debut, but he should have won the G1 Arkansas Derby and could have won the Kentucky Derby had Nakatani, who I think is one of the most overrated riders ever, not moved way early. That's my biggest problem with Nehro, besides his possible case of seconditis. Where is Nakatani going to place him in the early running and is he going to make another premature move? It's bad enough to do it at Churchill, but "Big Sandy" is as unforgiving as they come and better riders than this guy have fallen victim to her. Too bad this colt and Brilliant Speed couldn't switch riders, I still have some confidence in him so I'm going to use him in gimmicks and may even throw him on a savor pick four ticket if funds allow.

7. Monzon (30-1) Jose Lezcano (0-2) Ignacio Correas, IV (Debut)

He's tried graded stakes competition three times and hasn't made any noise whatsoever. Actually used him in the G2 Peter Pan a bit last out and just when it looked like he was going to fire he started spinning his wheels. His sire Thunder Gulch won the 1995 Belmont, the last Derby winner to do so in fact, but this colt appears terribly overmatched.

8. Prime Cut (15-1) Edgar Prado (2-9) Neil Howard (0-1)

While Monzon did little running in the Peter Pan, this guy made three different moves. He bobbled a bit leaving the gate before recovering nicely and moving up along the rail into contention. Another move down the backside was followed by a far turn spurt that helped him stay on to be third. Would have liked to have seen him have a cleaner trip and make one run, something that could happen in here. Prado is no stranger to upsetting this event, having won on the biggest longshot in the history of the race, Sarava in 2002 and paying over $70 aboard Birdstone just two years later when they stopped Smarty Jones from winning the Triple Crown. I'm using him on all my tickets and may even make a saver win bet on him if he's 20-1 or so.

9. Animal Kingdom (2-1) John Velazquez (1-14) Graham Motion (0-2)

Love to see both the Derby and Preakness winners settle the score in the "Test of the Champion." It's the way it should be. It's called horse racing, not horse breeding and I'm glad to see it alive and well in here. Has accomplished a great deal in just two dirt starts as he's a half-length short of taking a shot at winning the Triple Crown in here. You think Motion would have gotten a work over the course at Pimlico into him if he could jump in a time machine, like he did in the Derby and has before this? I sure do, especially if you think, like most including his rider do, that he didn't like that surface. He should love the surface and the expanse of Belmont and is poised to take two thirds of the Triple Crown, and perhaps sew up the Eclipse Award for Three-Year-Old champ on Saturday. I'm using him on all my multi race and single race exotic tickets.

10. Mucho Macho Man (10-1) Ramon Dominguez (0-2) Kathy Ritvo (Debut)

I haven't heard this much talk about shoes since an ex-girlfriend was obsessing over "Sex and the City." Maybe we can keep them on this time, buddy? Unacceptable to have this happen in two of three starts at any level of the sport but especially here. To his credit, he always runs his race and tries hard. And now he gets Ramonski!!! I think he'll be closer to the pace, like Stay Thirsty, and he's another that should love the main track at Belmont. Been training lights-out for this as well. I doubt he'll be 10-1 when they spring the latch but it doesn't matter to me. I'm using him on all my multi race and single race exotic tickets.

11. Isn't He Perfect (30-1) Rajiv Maragh (0-2) Doodnauth Shivmangal (Debut)

Best thing I can say about him is that his trainer is a really good guy. As far as his chances, they're about as good as mine.

12. Shackleford (9-2) Jesus Castanon (Debut) Dale Romans (0-2)

Have to give it to his connections for trying this but I'm curious to see if they'd be here has the Animal Kingdom stayed home. I don't think he would have but it's a moot point. I know they too would like to win the Eclipse but this isn't the place to try, in my opinion. This horse DOES NOT want to go a step past the Preakness distance and I don't think he should have won that day. Post draw hurt because now he has to go straight to the lead. It takes away the option of possibly taking off the pace and allowing some of the cheaper speed and everyone knows it. I think he'll wind up being the second choice and that's ok in my book because I'm not using him at all.

[StarDust Bum]

Belmont may be true 'Test of the Champion'

June 10, 2011


NEW YORK (AP) - Even without a Triple Crown on the line, the 143rd Belmont Stakes may indeed be the ``Test of the Champion.''

The final leg of the Triple Crown features not only the rubber match between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford on Saturday, but the top seven finishers from the Derby for the first time as well.

``Why did everyone pick this year to come back?'' wondered a smiling Graham Motion, who trains Animal Kingdom.

After watching his Derby winner gallop around the 1 1/2-mile main track at Belmont Park on Friday morning, Motion declared his colt in ``great form'' and up to the challenge of taking on a slew of rivals for the third time in five weeks.

``To have seven horses come back from the Derby, and to have the winner of the Preakness and Derby, what more can you want?'' Motion said. ``Everyone wants to see a Triple Crown winner, but ultimately this is the test of champions and I think this really is going to be that test.''

Animal Kingdom is the 2-1 favorite in a field of 12 3-year-olds as he attempts to become the 12th horse to complete a Derby-Belmont double. The last to succeed was Thunder Gulch in 1995.

Derby runner-up Nehro is the second choice at 4-1, with Shackleford next at 9-2 as he tries to become the 19th horse to take the Preakness and Belmont.

Ahmed Zayat, who owns Nehro, can't wait to see what happens. Of course, he's hoping his colt will shed his bridesmaid reputation after second-place finishes in the Louisiana, Arkansas and Kentucky derbies.

``This race will be something special,'' he said. ``It's another Derby at the test of champions.''

The matchup of a Derby winner against a Preakness winner in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont doesn't occur often. This will be the 22nd time it's happens, and first since 2005, when Preakness winner Afleet Alex defeated Derby winner Giacomo. Preakness winners have won 10 times, Derby winners five times.

Short of a Triple Crown bid, ``this is going to be one of the most exciting Belmonts I can remember,'' Shackleford's trainer Dale Romans said.

The New York Racing Association is hoping for a crowd of 60,000, far less than the record 120,139 that showed up for Smarty Jones' Triple Crown try in 2004. Weather could be a factor with forecasts calling for a 60 percent chance of rain, with thunderstorms possible by late afternoon, and temperatures in the high 60s.

Motion and Romans have said a wet track shouldn't be a problem for their horses, while long shot Ruler On Ice has won over a sloppy dirt track before.

Post time for the race on NBC is 6:35 p.m.

With one long lap around the only 1 1/2-mile track in North America, the Belmont has been full of surprises. Since Thunder Gulch won as the favorite in '95, only two others have done the same - Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in '05. Long shots have been coming home first on a regular basis. Last year it was 13-1 Drosselmeyer, two years ago Summer Bird at 11-1, and three years ago Da' Tara at 38-1. Birdstone spoiled Smarty Jones' bid for immortality at odds of 36-1 and Sarava ended War Emblem's Triple try in 2002 as a 70-1 shot.

How this Belmont unfolds is anybody's guess. One thing for certain is Shackleford will shoot for the lead from the outside No. 12 post under Jesus Castanon. The long, lanky colt led into the stretch at the Derby but couldn't hold off the closers and finished fourth. Then in the Preakness, he quickened the pace and held off Animal Kingdom to win by a half length.

``He's going to break and go to the lead,'' Romans said, ``and we'll see how far he can go.''

An intriguing outsider is Master of Hounds, a European invader who ran a commendable fifth in the Derby, and is back for another go on the deep, sandy Belmont track.

``He'll definitely put up a good show here,'' trainer Aidan O'Brien's assistant T.J. Comerford said. ``The 1 1/2 miles will hit him on the head.''

Mucho Macho Man joins Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to run in all three Triple Crown races this year. The colt trained by heart-transplant recipient Kathy Ritvo was third in the Derby and sixth in the Preakness after losing a front shoe at the start.

Fitted with new glue-on shoes, Mucho Macho Man is listed at 10-1 with Ramon Dominguez - New York's leading rider - aboard for the first time.

``These are tough horses,'' Ritvo said of this year's 3-year-old crop, considered by some to be a mediocre group due to the slow winning times in the Derby and Preakness. ``All three that have run in all these races are competitive. It's not like anybody's running bad races.''

Ritvo hopes it's her colt's turn to wind up in the winner's circle.

``With his long stride he's not going to be getting tired in the stretch,'' Ritvo said.

While the issue will be settled on the track, that hasn't prevented a little trash talking during the week. Outspoken Barry Irwin, whose Team Valor International owns Animal Kingdom, kicked off a friendly feud with Romans when he said he wasn't worried about Shackleford and proclaimed that Mucho Macho Man was the horse to beat.

Romans was quick with his reply: ``That may not be the stupidest thing Barry's ever said, but it's close.''

Dean Reeves, the majority owner of Mucho Macho Man, got in on the fun, too, saying he agreed with Irwin's assessment.

``We think we have the best horse in the country,'' Reeves said. ``We just need to prove it, and hope Saturday we'll do that.''

The field, from the rail out is Master of Hounds (Garrett Gomez, 10-1), Stay Thirsty (20-1, Javier Castellano), Ruler On Ice (Jose Valdivia Jr., 20-1), Santiva (Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1), Brilliant Speed (Joel Rosario, 15-1), Nehro (Corey Nakatani, 4-1), Monzon (Jose Lezcano, 30-1), Prime Cut (Edgar Prado, 15-1), Animal Kingdom (John Velazquez, 2-1), Mucho Macho Man (Ramon Dominguez, 10-1), Isn't He Perfect (Rajiv Maragh, 30-1) and Shackleford (9-2, Jesus Castanon).

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[StarDust Bum]

Mucho Macho Man runs for a cause

June 10, 2011


NEW YORK (AP) - Mucho Macho Man is running for more than glory in the Belmont Stakes.

He is also carrying the banner for organ donation, a cause near to trainer Kathy Ritvo. She was the recipient of a lifesaving transplant in November 2008.

``If somebody was on the fence whether they were going to donate a family member's organs and they saw the Kentucky Derby or Preakness or see the coverage for the Belmont, they might say, 'Look at what this lady was able to accomplish,''' Ritvo said.

Ritvo was suffering from cardiomyopathy, a deterioration of the heart muscle.

Mucho Macho Man joins Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford on Saturday as the only three horses to run in all three Triple Crown races.

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BARKING: Master of Hounds had a strong mile gallop on Friday, only his second day out of quarantine. The protective isolation was required because he returned to Ireland after running fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

The Derby was his first race on dirt, and an important learning experience.

``It was all new to him,'' said T.J. Comerford, assistant to trainer Aidan O'Brien. ``It was like he had a bit of practice, and you'd like to think he's up for it now.''

O'Brien might yet make an appearance at Belmont Park.

Deep in preparation for the Royal Ascot meet in England, O'Brien was still considering a flight from Ireland that would get him to New York on Saturday morning. Even from a distance, O'Brien is closely involved in the colt's preparations.

``I'm on the phone with him three times a day,'' Comerford said. ``It's a big thing to get a horse ready for one race from so far away. We're pleased we've got him this far. I don't think we can get him any better.''

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ON THE JERSEY SHORE: Ruler On Ice will be the last Belmont horse to arrive after trainer Kelly Breen decided to keep him at his barn at Monmouth Park.

The gelding had his final pre-race gallop Friday morning and will arrive early Saturday.

``It's just how we normally run,'' Breen said. ``We're not sure what time we're leaving here yet. He's doing fine. Everybody's great.''

Ruler On Ice will wear blinkers, a hood that restricts vision, for the first time.

``He doesn't always stay focused. That's why we're putting the blinkers on him,'' Breen said. ``He's as talented a horse as I have, and it's just a matter of if he's good enough.''

Although 20-1 on the morning line, Breen said Ruler On Ice deserves the opportunity to run.

``I really like the horse,'' he said. ``I think he has some ability. He's worked against all of our top horses and done quite well, so I think the horse deserves a chance.''

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GOING THE DISTANCE: Isn't He Perfect should have plenty of stamina for the 1 1/2-mile race, but whether he is quick enough remains to be seen. He has never won a stakes race.

Isn't He Perfect has had only two workouts since April, by design.

His trainer, Doodnauth Shivmangal, started in Guyana earlier in his career and combines techniques used in his native country with those from the United States. The horseman hopes his system, which emphasizes long, slow gallops over speed drills pays off.

``It's a long race, and you need your horse to stay the distance,'' Shivmangal said. ``You don't want a horse who just sprints. It's one of the longest races we'll ever see. Your horse has to have some endurance.''

[StarDust Bum]

Stay Thirsty pinch hits at Belmont Stakes

June 9, 2011


NEW YORK (AP) - Uncle Mo couldn't make it, so owner Mike Repole will settle for Stay Thirsty as his first Belmont Stakes horse.

Stay Thirsty is one of the outsiders, 20-1 on the morning line following a pair of poor efforts in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby.

That didn't deter Repole, who has long dreamed of having a horse in the race.

``Growing up in New York, and going to Aqueduct and Belmont 100 times before I was 17, this is what it's about. I always say one win in New York is like 10 wins anywhere else. The Belmont Stakes is the biggest race in New York. This is the pinnacle. When I was 13, this was the race I dreamed about, and to be in this position 29-30 years later, it's just a great feeling.''

Repole believed Uncle Mo, last season's 2-year-old champion, would be the one to take him here.

Uncle Mo was on target for the Kentucky Derby, only to be scratched the day before the race with an infected liver. Uncle Mo is recuperating at a farm in Kentucky, giving Repole hope the colt can return to the races later this year.

``He gained 83 pounds in 3 1/2 weeks, his blood work is getting better, his energy is improving,'' Repole said. ``He will go into light training probably in two weeks. In a perfect world he'll come back here sometime in mid July, but as we saw before the Derby, there are no guarantees in this game.''

Repole realizes the liver problem might be chronic. If that is the case, Uncle Mo will be retired to stud duty.

That leaves the beverage executive who sold Glaceau, the maker of Vitaminwater, to Coca Cola for a reported $4.1 billion in 2007, with Stay Thirsty.

``I'm going to definitely enjoy the moment and this has been such a wide open year in a very average crop,'' Repole said. ``It seems like every race, a $40 horse wins so why doesn't Stay Thirsty have a good enough shot as anybody else?''

Stay Thirsty won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in early March. It was his first stakes victory, and only the second win of his career in seven starts. Javier Castellano will be aboard.

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MISSING: For the first time since 1993, the Hall of Fame trio of trainers D. Wayne Lukas, Bob Baffert and Nick Zito will not have a horse in the Belmont.

They have combined to win seven Belmonts since then - Lukas leading the way with four. Zito has won twice and Baffert once.

Of the 12 trainers in this year's race, only Todd Pletcher owns a Belmont win: the 2007 edition when the filly Rags to Riches beat Curlin, the eventual Horse of the Year, by a head.

Stay Thirsty will be the 11th Belmont runner for Pletcher, the five-time Eclipse Award winner as the nation's leading trainer.

Half of the 12 trainers will be making their Belmont debuts: Doodnauth Shivmangal, Kathy Ritvo, Kelly Breen, Eddie Kenneally, Ignacio Correas IV and Aiden O'Brien.

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TOO HOT: Belmont officials called off the Thursday card because of the extreme conditions with the heat index expected to top 100 degrees. The soaring temperatures did not affect morning training as the Belmont horses went through their normal paces.

It should get cooler from here. Strong thunderstorms are forecast for late Thursday, bringing a wet Friday with top temperatures in the 80s.

Saturday could be wet and cool for the Belmont. The outlook calls for a cloudy day with showers and temperatures in the low 70s.

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TUNED IN: NBC and it's affiliated networks will offer 6 1/2 hours of Belmont coverage, starting with a preview show at 4 p.m. (ET) Friday on VERSUS. Primary race coverage will be on NBC starting at 5 p.m. (ET).

This is NBC's return to the Belmont. It last carried the race from 2001-05.

[StarDust Bum]

Can't a Preakness winner get some respect?

June 9, 2011


NEW YORK (AP) - Talk about a tough crowd.

Dissed by the owner of Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom one day, dismissed as the third betting choice for the Belmont Stakes another, Preakness winner Shackleford is still considered an underdog for Saturday's final leg of the Triple Crown.

What's trainer Dale Romans to think about his long, lanky 3-year-old colt?

``He's not getting the respect he deserves,'' Romans said Thursday at Belmont Park, where racing was canceled for the day because of temperatures approaching 100 degrees. ``Let's see what happens after the race.''

Shackleford has been getting the cold shoulder for months, having been sent off at odds of 68-1, 23-1 and 12-1 in his last three races.

``Every race he's run in he's been a long shot and he's run well in every one of them,'' Romans said of Shackleford's starts since a fifth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 26. ``And he's improved with every race. There are very few horses that have moved forward the more work they did. A lot stay the same, but he keeps getting better.''

After Wednesday's post position draw, when Shackleford landed the outside No. 12 gate, more doubters emerged.

``I would not have wanted to be in 1 or 12,'' Animal Kingdom's trainer Graham Motion said. ``The 12 is right by the grandstand. I'm happy he is in the 12. It will make him work a little bit.''

To that, Romans replied: ``He'll be the last one in and the first one out. He's fast enough that he'll be able to break and clear everyone anyway.''

At 1 1/2 miles, the Belmont is the longest and most grueling test a 3-year-old will face. It's a distance horses have yet to run, and are unlikely to do so again. Pedigree reveals which horses are bred for distance, and that's likely why Animal Kingdom's owner Barry Irwin is ignoring Shackleford - the son of a sire known for producing sprinters.

``I can't see a horse by Forestry going a mile-and-a-half,'' Irwin said after volunteering that he wasn't worried about Shackleford.

That's OK with Romans. Pedigree notwithstanding, he's figuring Shackleford will set a moderate pace and then try to hold off his 11 rivals. The plan nearly worked in the Derby, and worked to perfection in the Preakness.

Front-runners have had their moments in the Belmont. The sprinter Bold Forbes won in 1976 by controlling the pace and holding on for dear life in the stretch, and more recently it was 38-1 shot Da' Tara going wire-to-wire in 2008 and spoiling Big Brown's Triple Crown bid.

On Saturday, the pressure will be on Shackleford's jockey Jesus Castanon to strike the right balance.

``We may have gone too slow in the Derby because it allowed everyone to come home so fast and then we couldn't hang on,'' Romans said. ``The Preakness was totally different. We went fast and then they struggled a little bit at the end and we still had stamina left to finish.''

After the Fountain of Youth, even Romans had his doubts about Shackleford's potential. Two weeks after losing by 23 1/2 lengths, Shackleford showed Romans that is might be worth it to try the big boys in the Florida Derby on April 3.

``He was training so well, he deserved another chance, and I'm glad we gave it to him,'' Romans said. ``He got a chance to redeem himself.''

Sent off at odds of 68-1, Shackleford nearly pulled off a huge upset in the Florida Derby, losing by head to Dialed In. Then it was on to the Derby, where Shackleford was again overlooked at odds of 23-1. The colt led into the stretch before finishing fourth.

Two weeks later in the Preakness, 12-1 outsider Shackleford led from the start and held off Animal Kingdom for a half-length victory. The win had Romans beaming.

Along with his life partner (and exercise rider) Tammy Fox and their two teenage children, the family celebrated a long-time-coming first Triple Crown race victory.

``It's funny how little decisions during a year can make such a big difference in a career of a horse,'' said Romans, who grew up on the backstretch at Churchill Downs and won his first race in 1987. ``We were on the fence right up until entry time on whether or not to put him in the Florida Derby. On paper, he didn't look like he belonged.''

Some still don't believe he does. Romans isn't one of them.

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[StarDust Bum]

MY BEST BETS RACES 6 - 11


60% chance of Rain TMX NY. The stakes card races 6 thru 11 very competitive and there's Money to be made.

The Acorn Race 6
With 5 of 6 under her belt Turbulent Decent may be the best female sprinter in the country. The 1 turn Belmont mile should suit her just fine. The owners purposely did not run her in the OAKS as they though 1 1/8 miles is too far. Her worst finish 2nd Beaten by Zazu (3rd in the Oaks) and ahead of Plum Pretty (Oaks winner) at Santa Anita Feb 5th. She will be 3/5.. But I ask you, is it gambling if you just bet the chalk? If you want to be a hero look at the 3 Savy Supreme a 520k purchase out of Distorted Humor, she steps way up here for Pletcher and draws Johnny V (he lands here and not on Todd's other horse the 1). 2 wins in 3 starts and working ok at Bel. Look at the 4, It's Tricky, 3 out of 4, running a way back 4th in the loss at GP in a grade 2. The winner of that race, by 8+lengths completely wrapped up, RHeatLightning would have been the OAKS favorite but was injured and didn't run. Reunited w/Eddie Castro It's Tricky can just layoff the pace and close for Karin Mclauglin.

The True North Race 7
#3 Trappe Shot should go favored here. 5 out of 8 and a perfect 2 for 2 at BEL at the distance will make him hard to beat. The 4, Rule by Night ran second to Trappe Shot last time out. Both coming off the layoff. This horse gave Trappe shot 4 lbs in that race and was beaten 3 and change. Today Rule by Night gets a 1 lb advantge, a 5lb positive weight swing between the 2 races. 6 for 6 in the money with 3 wins, Dominguez up for Asmussen. The Dutrow entry in interesting as D'Funnybone is 2 for 3 at Belmont and you get This ones for Phil as a free kicker. The bomb in the number here is the 7.Frazil.. CHEAP, you bet, CHEAP SPEED, ya that too, but I like Linda Rice and this one's first 6 furlong time of 24 and 1 on a good Bel track in his last race of a mile+ last month.

The Woody Stevens Race 8
The 1 Travlin Man should be favored here, Pletcher and Johnny V yada yada yada. My best play of the card and SINGLE in the pk 4, is the 5 Arch Traveler. Connections figured out this one couldn't compete in the Triple Crown routes after 6th place finish in the Fla Derby. They sent him back to BEL and the horse won a Small stakes race at 7 furlongs, todays distance by 3 under wraps. Jockey Lezcano and trainer Jerkins are 43% winners in 2010 at Belmont. Followed by a bullet 1:00 best of 17 work june 2, lay it down and pick it up. He may end up the chalk, but is 2nd choice on the AM line. Throw in the 4 Bold Warrior and the 3 Derivitive for the minors.

The Foxwoods Race 9
This is impossible. Can make a case for almost everyone here. Settled on the 5 Strike the Bell, 8 Much Rejoicing, the 9 Jusraroundmidnight, Bet play is the 6 Fantasia, Joel Roserio passes the ride on the 1 to ride here. 3rd start off the bench 11 out of 16 in the money, w/5 wins only 1 at todays distance however.

The Woodfor Reserve Race 10
Gio Pointi 8 for 8 at BEL w/5 wins and 3 2nds will be the favorite. If you think as I, he might have lost a step I'll go with the 7 Prince Will I Am. A bomber here is the 9 Straight story also 8 for 8 at Belmont w/4 wins and 4 2nds, looks to be the speed, could get brave and take em Whoa to Go at a price.

The Belmont
Nerho is fresh and training well. Animal Planet shows no ill effects of the 2 prior races and is the AM line fav. Moucho Mach Man, squeezed a bit at the Preakness, should love the vastness that is Belmont park. and he fired a 59 and change bulletin his final work. 2 Bombers here
Stay Thirsty, love those Bernardini's, and Brilliant Speed out of Dynaformer and every relative of his won a Belmont (Read Bloodhorse article by Steve Haskins) Joel Roserio rerides after a respectable 7th by 5 in the Derby. The Trainer Tom Albertrini rested his charge and didnt run in the Preakness pointing to this race.

Good luck