A Spectacular Wagering Opportunity: Arbitrage

[griswold]

here's the play I'm doing, using the principles the hedge funds use.

Bet Dallas ML in Game Six
Bet Miami to win Series

Dallas is +225 ML in game six
Miami is -103 to win the series

Using a $100 base bet:


If Miami wins game six, you lose a mere $3
If Dallas wins game six and Miami wins game seven you win $325
If Miami wins game six and loses game seven you lose $203

The numbers over the years in the NBA in game seven are staggering. Home teams win almost all the time. Therefore, the third scenario (the money loser) is unlikely.

What the bet does is guarantee you a profit if dallas wins game six while risking only $3. Only a Dallas game six win and Miami game seven win screws it up.

I think the risk of a wipeout loss is low. The potential to knock down the big payout is real.

[buzzer beater]

Sorry Gris but if Dallas wins game six it is over and Miami will not have a chance to win game seven.

[griswold]

Sorry Gris but if Dallas wins game six it is over and Miami will not have a chance to win game seven.

You're right; I gotta rethink this

[griswold]

Here's the actual deal, if somebody is still paying attention.

If Dallas wins game six you win $122.
If Miami wins game six and seven you lose $3.
If Miami wins game six and Dallas wins game seven you lose $200.

The bottom scenario remains the least likely, whioch was my original thought process. Home teams almost always win game seven.

The only money loser is scenario three, the least likely, in my opinion.

I still think it's a good bet, now that I've described it correctly.

[Sirporkie]

It is only arbitrage if it is guaranteed you win money no matter what the outcome

[savage1]

Maybe I am missing something, but to me the safest thing at this point(obviously since I like Dallas) is to make a simple bet with Dallas on game six taking the points or even buyong a point or two an then worrying about game 7 if Miamim wins and covers.
Under my scenario, you can still win the $100, if they lose but cover, which is only a little less than the $122 they win under your scenario in which they actually have to win outright.
For that matter you could play Miami on the ML and/or buy points on Miami for game 6 and overlay Dallas taking the points and/or buy points and hope for a middle.
There are a lot of ways to look at this obviously and none is necessarily correct-mine just considers game 6 and not game 7 or the series as a whole.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck griz!