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**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:50 PM

MLB Odds: Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

Minnesota owns the worst record in the American League and on Thursday the Twins host the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. This will be the first matchup of a 4-game series at Target Field and the action is set for 5:10 p.m. (PT).

Despite having such a bad mark on the year, the Twins had been on a 5-game winning streak before losing to the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday, 1-0. The Rangers also had five wins in a row on their end until they ran into a series with the Detroit Tigers.

Derek Holland (5-1, 4.36 ERA) gets the nod for Texas and he is coming off a fantastic outing against the Indians. The 24-year-old lefty surrendered five hits and one walk in a complete game shutout, winning 4-0. It took just 112 pitches for him to get through all nine innings.

Holland has a nice record, but the team is 7-5 overall in his starts. He hasn’t given up an outburst of runs higher than five all year, but it has happened enough to drive up his ERA a bit. Luckily for the Rangers, he has a better ERA on the road (2.70) and the team is 6-2 in his night starts this season.

For the Twins, the bad news for them all year has been the injury to their star catcher, Joe Mauer, who is still on the DL. The bright spot for them, however, has been Jason Kubel. The outfielder is batting .310 with 30 RBIs on the season.

They are certainly lacking in power, though. Michael Cuddyer leads the team with only seven home runs and as a team they are close to the bottom in both homers and slugging percentage.

Texas’ offense is not experiencing that problem. They have three guys with double digit home runs and one of those is not Josh Hamilton, who has only played 25 games this season. The Rangers rank in at least the top-10 of every important offensive category.

If it wasn’t good enough to be behind only the Yankees in HRs, they also happen to have more stolen bases than any team in baseball.

One interesting note is that Texas and Minnesota are No. 1 and No. 2 fewest strikeouts by their hitters.

Nick Blackburn (5-4, 3.57 ERA) will be on the mound for Minnesota. The right-hander is probable for Thursday as he suffered some back stiffness on Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. The Twins are 5-7 in his starts which includes just a 1-3 mark at home.

It should be about 68 degrees and a partly cloudy night when the first pitch is thrown.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:52 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

June 9, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Yankees are 7-0 since June 06, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two for a net profit of $700.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Padres are 0-12 OU since June 18, 2010 at home after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1200 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Brewers are 10-0 since June 29, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 0-12 (-3.1 rpg) since September 24th, 2009 as a 140-plus favorite when they blew a lead in their starters last start and lost, as long as that starter had a WHIP of at least one, struck out fewer than eight and the bullpen allowed at least one run in that loss.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Tigers are 0-7 since July 17, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $856 when playing against.

The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since April 18, 2010 on the road within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $805 when playing against.

The Mariners are 0-10 since May 31, 2010 when Doug Fister starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:55 PM

Preview: Reds (32-31) at Giants (35-27)

Game: 1
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: June 09, 2011 10:15 PM EDT

The Cincinnati Reds are eagerly trying to string some wins together. A weekend in San Francisco might not provide the best opportunity to make that happen.

Looking to build on a winning homestand, the Reds open a four-game set against the NL West-leading Giants on Thursday night.

Though Cincinnati (32-31) lost 4-1 to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, it finished with a 5-4 homestand. The Reds, however, have dropped 14 of 21 since winning five in a row May 13-17.

"We're just fighting to get every win we can, and we just can't seem to be able to catch a nice streak where they seem to come easy," Wednesday's loser Bronson Arroyo told the Reds' official website. "Everything has been difficult. It's not going to get any easier in the next couple of weeks."

After San Francisco, the Reds head to Los Angeles for three games. Cincinnati is 12-16 away from home and lost eight of 10 on its most recent trip against Cleveland, Philadelphia and Atlanta.

"We're real close," manager Dusty Baker said. "Perhaps we'll turn it around on this road trip. The last road trip, we had a bad one, so we're due for an excellent one."

The Reds did not fare well last season in San Francisco, getting outscored 38-19 while losing two of three Aug. 23-25, and they now face a Giants team that beat Washington 3-1 on Wednesday for its seventh win in 10 games.

Matt Cain struck out 11 for his first complete game of the season, and Brandon Crawford hit a tiebreaking triple in the seventh inning.

San Francisco (35-27) has scored 15 runs but allowed 11 while taking two of three in consecutive series against Colorado and the Nationals.

Trying to follow up Cain's stellar effort with another strong outing of his own, Madison Bumgarner (2-7, 3.42 ERA) takes the mound for the Giants.

The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA over his last eight starts but went 2-4 and received an average of 2.85 runs of support. Bumgarner allowed an earned run in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to the Rockies on Saturday.

"I've got in a pretty good rhythm the last few starts and it feels good," he said. "I'm getting to where I want to be. I'm making pitches and I feel good."

Bumgarner allowed eight runs and three homers in 2 2-3 innings of his only previous start versus Cincinnati, a 12-11, 12-inning loss Aug. 25.

Joey Votto hit one of his two homers in that contest off Bumgarner and batted .400 (8 for 20) with six RBIs over his last five games versus San Francisco. He's hit .370 with two homers and eight RBIs in seven games this month.

Scheduled Reds starter Johnny Cueto (2-2, 2.27) has not allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts but is 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA over his last four. He surrendered two runs in seven innings of an 11-8, 11-inning loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.

The right-hander did not receive a decision after allowing four runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 6-5 loss to the Giants on June 7, 2010.

San Francisco's Freddy Sanchez, 0 for 8 over the last two games, is a .357 hitter (5 for 14) versus Cueto.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:55 PM

A's try to end 9-game skid with new skipper Melvin

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (27-36)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (30-34)

First Pitch: Thursday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -110, Oakland +100, Total: 7.5

The Oakland A’s travel to Chicago to try and snap a nine-game losing streak when they open a four-game series against the White Sox on Thursday. The A’s fired manager Bob Geren on Thursday, naming former Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin as their interim skipper.

Trevor Cahill (6-3, 2.65 ERA) will start for the Athletics, looking to snap his own streak of five straight starts without a win. Cahill is 0-3 with a 4.13 ERA, and a poor 1.4 K-to-BB ratio (21 K, 15 BB) over that span, as Oakland lost all five of those starts. He began the season 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 2.8 K-to-BB ratio (45 K, 16 BB) in his first eight outings.

Cahill allowed a season-high five runs in seven innings at Boston on Saturday, but didn't get a decision in Oakland's 14-inning, 9-8 defeat. Cahill has faced the White Sox twice this season, but has not done well in either outing. He received a no-decision on April 12 after allowing four runs in 4.2 IP, then lost to Chicago on May 15 by giving up four runs (2 ER) and 10 hits in seven innings of a 4-3 defeat. He is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA in seven career starts against the White Sox overall, as his team is just 2-5 in those seven outings.

Chicago will throw its ace Mark Buehrle (5-4, 3.95 ERA) on Thursday. Buehrle is 4-1 with a 2.85 ERA in six outings since a personal three-game skid in late April. He allowed three runs in six innings of Friday's 6-4 victory over Detroit. He has faced the A’s twice this year, throwing quality outings both times (8 IP/0 R April 11, 6.1 IP/3 ER May 15). But Buehrle has struggled overall in his career against Oakland, going 5-13 (6-18 team record) with a 3.87 ERA in 24 starts. He will now try to help the White Sox rebound from a 7-4, 10-inning loss to Seattle on Wednesday. Carlos Quentin hit a game-tying, two-run HR in the eighth inning on Wednesday, and has 5 HR and 13 RBI during his current 10-game hit streak, which he is batting .371 (13-for-35).

Oakland has really struggled offensively during its nine-game losing streak, hitting just .211 as a team and scoring a total of 26 runs. They endured a span of 19-straight scoreless innings in their series sweep against the Orioles, scoring just four runs in those three contests. I like Buehrle to continue those struggles and put the Athletics losing skid in double-digits for the first time since losing 10 in a row in 2008, and spoiling Melvin’s debut in Oakland.

The FoxSheets provide this four-star trend siding with Chicago.

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (57-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +36.6 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:57 PM

Kershaw tries to run unbeaten streak to 8 vs. Rockies

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (29-34)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (29-32)

First Pitch: Thursday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Line: Colorado -110, Los Angeles +100, Total: 7.5

The Dodgers and Rockies will start a four-game series at Coors Field on Thursday. The Rockies won both games against the Dodgers at home back in April.

Clayton Kershaw (6-3, 3.05 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. Kershaw is 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA, 55 K and 11 BB in his past seven starts, but struggled in his last outing Saturday at Cincinnati, surrendering six runs in 6.2 innings. However, the Los Angeles offense picked him up, erasing a five-run deficit and rallying to win 11-8 in 11 innings. Kershaw hasn't received a single run of support while he was on the mound in his past two appearances at Coors Field, going 0-1 despite limiting the Rockies to four runs over 12 innings.

Colorado will give the ball to 24-year-old rookie Juan Nicasio (1-1, 2.08 ERA). The hard-throwing right-hander, considered one of the Rockies' top prospects, gave up three runs and nine hits in six innings of a 3-1 loss at San Francisco on Friday. He fared better at the plate, doubling in both of his at-bats. He pitched much better in his May 28 major-league debut, yielding one unearned run in seven innings of a 15-4 victory over St. Louis.

Nicasio will look to continue his team’s recent trend of quality pitching. The Rockies have posted a 1.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over their past seven games, but are just 4-3 over that span because they have scored just 15 runs with a .228 team batting average and three total homers.

Kershaw has been really tough to beat lately, as L.A. is 11-5 in his past 16 outings dating back to last year. I like Kershaw to continue Colorado’s struggles offensively. I’m taking Los Angeles which is supported by these three anti-Rockies FoxSheets trends.

JIM TRACY is 8-18 (30.8%, -15.9 Units) against the money line after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals as the manager of COLORADO. The average score was COLORADO 4.5, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*).

COLORADO is 4-13 (23.5%, -11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. The average score was COLORADO 4.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*).

COLORADO is 7-13 (35.0%, -16.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.7, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:58 PM

Mariners go for 5th straight Comerica Park win

SEATTLE MARINERS (32-30)

at DETROIT TIGERS (33-28)

First Pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -200, Seattle +185, Total: 7

After ending a nine-game losing streak at U.S. Cellular Field on Wednesday, the Mariners travel to Detroit where they have had a string of recent success.

Seattle will send Doug Fister (3-6, 3.29 ERA) to the mound against the Tigers on Thursday, as the Mariners will look to win their fifth straight against Detroit at Comerica Park. Fister has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season, but two of those non-quality starts came on the road where Fister is 1-3 with a 3.55 ERA in his five starts. He has struggled in his career on the road, going just 3-11 with a 4.57 ERA in his 20 career starts. Fister is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts against the Tigers after defeating them April 19, when he allowed just two runs and five hits, while fanning seven in 6.1 innings. The loss came last season in Detroit when he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings.

After taking two of three from the Rangers, the Tigers come back home winners of eight of their past 10 games. Justin Verlander (6-3, 3.04 ERA) will start for the Tigers. Since losing against the Mariners (6 IP, 3 ER) on April 27, Verlander is 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his seven starts. But Verlander is a subpar 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA in eight starts versus Seattle after posting wins in his first five against the club. The Tigers offense has carried the team during their recent winning stretch, as they are hitting .325 with 57 runs scored and 37 extra-base hits (23 doubles, 1 triple, 13 HR) in their past nine games. They are also 11-5 in their past 16 home games.

The Mariners swept the Tigers in a three-game set in Detroit back in April and have outscored them 32-7 during their four-game winning streak at Comerica. With past history on their side, including a 6-2 record the past eight times they’ve faced Verlander, the Mariners are worth the gamble being such a huge underdog on the money line (+185). I’m taking Seattle.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend shows that the red-hot bats of Detroit are likely to cool off on Thursday.

Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (63-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 05:58 PM

Red Sox go for sweep of Sabathia's Yankees

BOSTON RED SOX (35-26)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (33-26)

First Pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -130, Boston +120, Total: 8

The Red Sox will go for their second three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium in less than a month on Thursday, when they take on New York in the final game of their three-game series.

Boston improved to 5-0 at Yankee Stadium and 7-1 overall against the Yankees this season with its 11-6 win on Wednesday. Josh Beckett (4-2, 2.01 ERA) will get the start for the Sox, who will look to win their sixth straight game after suffering through a four-game losing streak. Beckett has rebounded wonderfully after a disastrous 2010 in which he posted a career-high 5.78 ERA. He has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season, and only once has he surrendered more than three runs. Beckett is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA over his past seven starts. He appeared headed to another victory Saturday after allowing three runs and four hits in six innings, but the bullpen surrendered four runs in the ninth in a game Boston won in 14 innings.

This is the third time this season and the second time at Yankee Stadium, that Beckett will go up against CC Sabathia. Beckett won the first two meetings, and has yet to allow a run in his 14 IP against the bombers this season. He has a WHIP of 0.64 in those two starts. That is a stark difference for Beckett compared to how he fared against the Yankees in 2010, when he went 1-2 with a 10.04 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his five starts.

CC Sabathia (7-3, 2.80 ERA) will take the mound for New York, looking to win his fifth straight start on Thursday. Sabathia is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP during his win streak. But Sabathia has lost both of his starts this season to Boston, yielding seven runs and 16 hits over 12.1 innings. The Red Sox are 6-1 in games when Beckett faces Sabathia, going back to his days with Cleveland. This includes Sabathia’s two losses in the 2007 ALCS. Overall, Sabathia is 6-9 (team is 7-12) with a 4.20 ERA in his 19 career starts against the Red Sox, including postseason.

The Yankees are hitting just .227 with a .314 OBP in eight games against the Red Sox this season, which includes Mark Teixeira’s .138 BA (4-for-29, 10 K), Derek Jeter’s .194 BA (7-for-36, 6 K) and Alex Rodriguez hitting just .207 (6-for-29, 9 K). For Boston, David Ortiz has found the fountain of middle-age, as he is hitting .467 (14-for-30) with 4 HR and 10 RBI in his past eight games. Given Beckett’s dominance against the Yankees this season, I like Boston to continue its win streak and sweep New York.

The FoxSheets provide this four-star trend, which also expects the Red Sox to win Thursday.

BOSTON is 17-2 (89.5%, +14.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.5, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets really like the Over in this apparent pitchers’ duel as well.

N.Y. YANKEES are 18-2 OVER (90.0%, +16.0 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N.Y. YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 06:00 PM

Cardinals slightly favored in Houston Thursday

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (37-26)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (24-38)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -115, Houston +105, Total: 8.5

NL Central-leading St. Louis looks to capture the rubber match of its three-game series with Houston when the two teams meet in their series finale at Minute Maid Park on Thursday night.

St. Louis won the first game of the series, 7-4, on Tuesday, but dropped a 4-1 decision to Houston's Bud Norris on Wednesday night after collecting only two hits. Norris took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Lance Berkman broke it up with a solo home run. Berkman has destroyed his former team this season, going 10-for-21 (.476 BA) with 4 HR and 10 RBI in six games against Houston.

The Cardinals will turn to Lance Lynn (0-1, 8.44 ERA) who is making his second career start for the injured Kyle McClellan. The right-hander made his major-league debut and lone start of the season on Thursday versus San Francisco. He dropped a 12-7 decision to the Giants after allowing five earned runs and four hits in 5.1 innings.

J.A. Happ (3-7, 4.65 ERA) will head to the mound for the Astros. The tall left-hander has lost three straight decisions, but has pitched at least six innings in five of his past six starts, allowing 3 ER or less in all six outings (3.09 ERA in that span). In his most recent outing, he allowed six hits and three runs in six innings in a 3-1 loss at San Diego on Friday. Happ has faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA. Despite the losses, St. Louis only batted .225 versus Happ and struck out 13 times in 11 innings. Happ is 1-4 with a 5.13 ERA in six career starts versus St. Louis, but he's been impressive at Minute Maid Park in 2011. In his six home starts, he's 2-3 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .203 opponents’ BA.

The Cardinals have won five of the seven meetings between the two teams this season, and hold a 3-2 series advantage at Minute Maid Park. However, Houston has the advantage on the mound and is a good play as a home underdog, according to this highly-rated FoxSheets trend.

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. (50-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.1%, +34.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-09-2011, 06:14 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/08/11 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1370 Detail
06/07/11 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1400 Detail
06/06/11 9-*13-*0 40.91% -*2220 Detail
06/05/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2515 Detail
06/04/11 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*65 Detail
06/03/11 14-*16-*0 46.67% -*1095 Detail
06/02/11 8-*3-*1 72.73% +*2485 Detail
06/01/11 15-*13-*1 53.57% +*1345 Detail

Totals 102-*94-*3 52.04% +2935

Thursday, June 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto 2 Top 8 Toronto -130 500
Kansas City 3 Under 8.5 500

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston +117 500
NY Yankees - Over 8 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle +187 500
Detroit - Over 7 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -149 500
Philadelphia - Under 9.5 500

Arizona - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +108 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Florida +123 500
Florida - Under 7.5 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -108 500
Houston - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -109 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 7.5 500

NY Mets - 8:10 PM ET NY Mets +161 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

Texas - 8:10 PM ET Texas -130 500
Minnesota - Under 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 8:40 PM ET LA Dodgers +117 500
Colorado - Over 7.5 500

Washington - 10:05 PM ET Washington +115 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Cincinnati - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco +104 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

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The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

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