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**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:17 PM

Jimenez looks to shut down Padres Tuesday

COLORADO ROCKIES (28-31)

at SAN DIEGO PADRES (27-34)

First pitch: Tuesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Colorado -145, San Diego +135, Total: 6

After picking up his first win of the season, Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez looks to make it two straight at San Diego on Tuesday night.

Jimenez (1-5, 4.98 ERA, 59.2 IP) was brilliant in a 3-0 complete-game shutout victory at the L.A. Dodgers last Wednesday. The right-hander allowed four hits in nine innings while striking out seven batters. Despite an 0-5 mark prior to that game, Jimenez had pitched at least six innings in five of his nine previous starts and had allowed three earned runs or less in four of those games. Jimenez has won five straight starts versus San Diego, and in those games, he owns a 3.27 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 33 innings. He is 3-0 with a .157 opponents’ BA in his past three starts at Petco Park, and is 7-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 11 career starts there. Despite his win-loss record, Jimenez has been outstanding on the road this season. He's 1-1 with a stellar 1.93 ERA in four starts away from Coors Field, and in 28 innings, he's allowed only nine hits and six earned runs.

The Padres will counter with Tim Stauffer, who is 1-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 70 innings this season. The right-hander has pitched very well at times, but has failed to receive much run support from San Diego's struggling offense. He's surrendered two earned runs or less in seven of his 12 starts and has pitched at least six innings in seven games. Stauffer is 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA in three career starts (seven appearances) vs. the Rockies. But he hasn't found much success at Petco this season, sporting an 0-3 record and 4.41 ERA in six starts. He's coming off a 7-4 home loss to Houston on Thursday after allowing seven runs (five earned) and eight hits in five innings.

Colorado won the opener of the series, 3-0, on Monday night. The Rockies' offense has scored three runs or less in the past eight games, while San Diego has been shut out a major-league high 10 times this season. The Padres have also struggled at home where they are 12-22. With Jimenez finally looking like his dominant self of last year, the pick here is Colorado to defeat the punchless Padres. This four-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Rockies on Tuesday night.

Play On - Road teams (COLORADO) – below-average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (42-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.9%, +33 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:18 PM

Cardinals try to beat Astros for 5th straight time

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (36-25)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (23-37)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -135, Houston +125, Total: 8.5

St. Louis aims for its fourth straight victory when it visits struggling Houston on Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park.

Jake Westbrook (5-3, 5.15 ERA, 64.2 IP) will take the mound against the Astros looking for his fourth straight win. He got a no-decision on June 1 against San Francisco after allowing nine hits and three runs in 5.2 innings of a 7-5 Cardinals loss. Prior to that contest, Westbrook had allowed four runs in 20 innings in winning his previous three outings. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts versus Houston. He's also 3-1 with a 4.18 ERA in six road starts in 2011. Lance Berkman (.329, 12 HR, 40 RBI) received a cortisone injection in his left wrist and will be in the lineup on Tuesday night. Berkman sat out Sunday's game versus Chicago with the injury.

Brett Myers (2-4, 4.82 ERA, 74.2 IP) will get the start against St. Louis on Tuesday. The right-hander pitched very well against the Cardinals last season. In four starts, he was 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .211 opponents' batting average. In his most recent start, Myers allowed one run over six innings of a 3-1 victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. It marked his first victory since April 12, also against Chicago. He is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five home starts this season, and is 6-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis.

The Astros have dropped four straight to St. Louis and three straight overall. The Cardinals have won four of the five meetings this season, and took two of three at Minute Maid Park on April 26-28, scoring 22 runs in the three games. Although the Cardinals are playing better right now, the Astros have the better pitcher on the mound and are playing at home, so they’re worth taking the risk for a higher payoff. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend likes underdog Houston to pick up the victory on Tuesday night.

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games. (81-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.3%, +38.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:21 PM

Haren looks to dominate Rays in pitching mismatch

TAMPA BAY RAYS (31-29)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (30-32)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -160, Tampa Bay +150, Total: 7

After taking the series opener 5-1 on Monday, the Rays will look to win their second straight against the Angels, when both teams meet in the middle contest of their three-game series on Tuesday.

Rays rookie Alex Cobb (0-0, 5.91 ERA) will make his third start of the season for Tampa. He has allowed seven runs, eight hits and eight walks in his 10.2 IP so far this season. In his season debut against these same Angels, four was the magic number in his pitching line of: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB and 3 K. A fourth-round selection of the Rays in 2006, Cobb was 5-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his eight starts at Triple-A Durham before being called up to the majors. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton missed both Monday’s game with a stomach flu and are questionable for Tuesday. After scoring just two total runs and being shut out twice during their three-game losing streak, the Rays have scored 14 in winning two of their past three.

Dan Haren (5-3, 2.29 ERA) will get the start for the Angels after having his original spot in the rotation delayed when he suffered lower back tightness during a bullpen session Wednesday at Kansas City that kept him out Saturday. Haren threw 30 pitches prior to Sunday's game and reported no issues. To Haren, there's a big difference between having a start pushed back and missing it entirely, as he has a major league-leading streak of 215 consecutive starts made since 2005. He has been excellent this season, ranking second in the majors in WHIP (0.94) and allowing 2 ER of fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. After allowing a season-high 5 ER in a loss against the A’s, Haren allowed a season-high 10 hits over six innings in getting the win against the Twins in his last start on May 29. Haren is 6-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 10 starts versus Tampa Bay, and he held them to a one over 7.2 innings in a 5-1 win at Tropicana Field on April 6.

The Angels have struggled to score runs for Haren all season, as his 2.40 run support is the lowest in the majors. However, with a rookie on the mound, I like the Angels to break out offensively, ending their recent funk of scoring just 12 total runs in losing five of their past six games. I’m taking Los Angeles which is backed up by this FoxSheets three-star trend.

Play On - Home teams (LA ANGELS) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (99-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +44.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:22 PM

Seattle tries to snap 9-game skid at U.S. Cellular Field

SEATTLE MARINERS (31-29)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (29-33)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -120, Chicago +110, Total: 7

Chicago won its ninth straight game against the Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field on Monday, when John Danks got his first win of 2011. A victory on Tuesday would set the White Sox team record for most consecutive home wins against the Mariners and give them 14 wins in the past 15 meetings with Chicago.

Felix Hernandez (6-4, 3.04 ERA) gets the start for Seattle, and will be looking for his third straight win. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his past three starts, striking out 28 and walking just seven in his 22 IP. Hernandez leads the AL with 92 K on the season. After going 1-2 with a 5.72 ERA in his first five starts against the White Sox, Hernandez is 2-1 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his past five starts against Chicago. That includes his complete-game, five-hitter against the White Sox at Safeco Field on May 6 this season, as well as eight shutout innings on April 28, 2009 in the Mariners only win against the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field in their past 14 tries.

Chicago will counter with Philip Humber (4-3, 3.06 ERA). The No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft allowed two runs and three hits over seven innings in getting a no-decision against Hernandez and the Mariners on May 6. Humber has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his 10 starts this season. He tied a season-high with four runs allowed over 7.2 IP in his last start, but got the win in the Sox 10-7 victory at Fenway Park.

After scoring 30 runs and hitting .342 as a team during its four-game win streak, Chicago has scored just eight runs in its past three games. I expect Hernandez to add to the White Sox current offensive futility and lead the Mariners to victory. The pick is for Seattle to snap its nine-game losing streak against the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons supporting the Mariners pick.

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (82-29 since 1997.) (73.9%, +44.3 units. Rating = 3*).

SEATTLE is 23-11 (67.6%, +13.7 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season. The average score was SEATTLE 4.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:24 PM

Oswalt, Phillies aim to spoil De La Rosa's 1st start

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (28-33)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (36-24)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -175, Los Angeles +165, Total: 8

The Dodgers and Phillies continue their three-game series on Tuesday. Philly is looking to build off its win on Monday, when Cliff Lee shut down the Dodgers, striking out 10 and allowing no runs over seven innings in the Phillies 3-1 win.

Rubby De La Rosa (1-0, 1.80 ERA) will make his first ML start for the Dodgers on Tuesday, after appearing out of the bullpen three previous times this season. The 22-year-old right-hander got the win in the Dodgers 3-2 victory against the Marlins on May 27 when he allowed one earned run and two hits in his two innings. De La Rosa was called up from Double-A Chattanooga on May 24, where he was 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight starts. He is replacing Jon Garland in the rotation, who has right-shoulder inflammation.

The Phillies have now won two straight after suffering through their season-high, four- game losing streak. Roy Oswalt (3-3, 2.70 ERA) looks to put an end to his streak of five straight starts without a win on Tuesday. Despite allowing just six runs (five earned) in his past four starts, the Phillies have supported him with just three total runs while he factored in those decisions. Oswalt has dominated the Dodgers over his past six starts, going 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against them.

The Dodgers offense was shut down Monday night after averaging 6.3 runs per game and hitting .302 over their previous seven games. They now have lost eight of their past 11 games at Citizens Bank Park, allowing 60 runs in those 11 contests. I like Philadelphia and Oswalt to continue their domination over the Dodgers, with the Phillies offense breaking out against the rookie De La Rosa.

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to back the Phillies.

CHARLIE MANUEL is 35-12 (74.5%, +21.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games with no home runs as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.6, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (L.A. DODGERS) - poor NL offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors. (74-36 since 1997.) (67.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:26 PM

Red Sox and Yankees open 3-game set in the Bronx

BOSTON RED SOX (33-26)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (33-24)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -125, New York +115, Total: 9.5

The Red Sox and Yankees continue their rivalry on Tuesday when Boston visits Yankee Stadium for the first of three games. Both teams enter on a hot streak as New York won six of their final seven games on its road trip out west, and the Red Sox are coming off a three-game sweep of the Athletics at home.

Jon Lester (7-2, 3.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox on Tuesday as they enter one game behind the first-place Yankees in the American League East. After winning four straight starts while allowing just 4 ER and posting a WHIP of 1.07 from April 17 to May 3, Lester has been hit hard over his past five starts. Despite winning three of these appearances, Lester has allowed 21 ER in just 29 innings (6.52 ERA) while posting a WHIP of 1.76. This will be Lester’s second start against the Yankees this season as he and the Red Sox defeated them 7-5 on May 15 at Yankee Stadium despite allowing 4 ER in 6 IP. Since allowing 7 ER in 3.2 IP in his first career start against the Yankees on August 18, 2006, Lester has made 12 starts against New York and is 7-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 76.1 IP.

The Yankees will send Freddy Garcia (4-4, 3.34 ERA) to the mound for his 10th start of 2011. Garcia has allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts, and has won his past two starts. Garcia loves the month of June, as he is 28-11 with a 3.79 ERA in his 46 career starts during this month. He lost his only start against Boston this season, when he went up against Lester and the Sox on May 15. He has allowed six runs (5 ER) over 6.1 innings in his two appearances against Boston this season. Prior to 2011, Garcia was 8-2 with a 4.40 ERA in his 16 starts against Sox.

Lester has done very well on the road this season, going 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA in his seven starts. He has been especially dominant against AL East teams on the road, as he is 10-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his past 11 starts against them. The Red Sox have won five of six against New York this season including a three-game sweep in the Bronx from May 13-15. I’m taking Lester and Boston to continue its success against the Yankees.

The FoxSheets show a pair of three-star trends siding with the Red Sox.

BOSTON is 15-2 (88.2%, +12.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (NY YANKEES) - after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. (79-47 since 1997.) (62.7%, +41 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-07-2011, 08:27 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

June 7, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Blue Jays are 0-12 since May 22, 2010 on the road after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1205 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Reds are 0-9 OU since August 01, 2010 at home when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 9-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $965.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

None active today.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Brewers are 7-0 since May 28, 2010 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $725

The Tigers are 6-0 OU since June 09, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing the over.

The Mariners are 0-6 OU since July 18, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $600 when playing the under.

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