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**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 06:41 PM

Detroit Tigers visit Texas for MLB odds clash

If the defending American League champs make it back to the playoffs this season, it won't be due to the schedule makers doing the Texas Rangers any favors.

Texas comes off a 6-game road trip for a short 3-game homestand before heading right back out on the highway for 10 contests. Monday's matchup against the Detroit Tigers will get underway at 5:05 p.m. (PT) with a mound battle between Max Scherzer and Colby Lewis.

Overnight numbers on the Don Best odds screen showed the Rangers as 145-150 favorites for the series opener. Monday's total is 9½ runs.

Saddled with the worst divisional travel in the majors, the Rangers have split their first 60 games home and away. One of their excursions took them east to Baltimore, west to Detroit then back east to New York. Texas has four more trips to the Pacific Time Zone, including a season-ending slate that has them in Seattle and Oakland, back to the Lone Star State and then finishing at Anaheim.

The Rangers will get a little respite from the travel later this month when their final 19 contests before the All-Star Game are within Texas.

Texas just concluded a very successful 6-1 road trip by sweeping four from the Cleveland Indians. The Rangers are 19-11 at home (+4.5 units) and took four of six on their own diamond from the Tigers during the 2010 campaign.

Detroit will complete a 6-game trip with this set in Arlington. The Tigers began their excursion by taking two of three at the White Sox this past weekend to leave them 14-16 on the MLB highway (-2.0 units).

Scherzer (8-4, 4.38) didn't figure into the decision when he pitched against the Rangers in mid-April, a series that saw the Tigers take two of three from Texas. Listed as 130 home chalk at Comerica Park, Scherzer left the game after six innings with the score knotted two apiece. Detroit eventually won it 3-2 on Brandon Inge's walk-off clout in the ninth.

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA lifetime vs. Texas. His lone outing at Rangers Ballpark was last season when he tossed seven frames and allowed three earned runs, a 5-4 Tigers loss with Scherzer once again earning the ND.

Lewis (5-6, 3.48) is coming off a strong performance at Tampa Bay last Wednesday when he tossed eight shutout innings of Texas' 3-0 win as 130 dogs. He's fared much better on the road this campaign than at home where the Rangers are 2-3 in his five starts with Lewis owning a 5.52 ERA.

He didn't see the Tigers when the clubs met in April but faced them three times in 2010. Lewis was 2-1 in those matchups with a 4.65 ERA. Both wins came in front of the home crowd.

Hot and dry is the forecast in the D-FW area for Monday, and for the rest of the summer for that matter. Daytime temps are expected to climb over the triple-digit mark and it will still be well into the 90s at game time. An inconsequential SSE breeze is expected.

The series continues Tuesday with lefty Matt Harrison on the hill for Texas and Rick Porcello scheduled for the Tigers.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:08 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

June 6, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 0--11 since May 01, 2010 on the road after a non-shutout 5+ run win if their facing a starter with an ERA under 10 for a net profit of $820 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Giants are 0-10 OU since September 03, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

None (be back tomorrow) Instead an interesting league system. In database history teams that are favored after being shutout twice in a row are 35-17 for a profit of $1,110 when playing on. Active today with Cleveland.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 27-3 since July 23rd, 2010 when they are off a win in which they left at least 18 men on base, as long as they were not a 180+ dog in that win.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Brewers are 5-0 OU since May 29, 2010 when they are off a game that was tied at the end of at least six separate innings win for a net profit of $500 when playing the over

The Padres are 5-0 OU since May 03, 2010 at home after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $500 when playing the over.

The Nationals are 0-9-1 OU since May 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:11 PM

MLB Betting Notes

June 6, 2011

The Cleveland Indians are fading and fading fast. There was no better example of how far they have slipped than by looking at their play over the weekend at Progressive field when the Rangers swept four games from them, the last two coming on shutouts. Granted the Texas Rangers are one of the best in baseball with Josh Hamilton back in the lineup, but we’re talking about an Indians squad that was had the best home record in baseball by a large margin.
The Indians were 30-15 at one point and are now 33-24 with the red-hot Tigers breathing down their neck only 2 ½-games behind. The Tribe has now dropped nine of their last 12 and have scored only 11 runs in those losses.

The losses seem to coincide with DH Travis Hafner going on the disabled list, but it goes much deeper than that. Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo aren’t hitting as expected with only Asdrubal Cabrera is coming with any consistency at the plate.

The starting pitching, which had been their strong point, has let them down over the last three weeks. Their ace, Justin Masterson, led the Indians to wins in his first six starts. But since May 6, they have lost five of Masterson’s last six starts.

Their immediate future doesn’t look too promising either. They start a three game set against the Twins on Monday and then play four at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. The Twins are coming off a four-game sweep at Kansas City while the first-place Yankees won six of their last seven on their West Coast swing.

Baseball fans everywhere are hoping the fairy tale story doesn’t end this quick for the city of Cleveland. After watching the Miami Heat and LeBron James take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals, the Browns players being locked out, Jim Tressel stepping down and all the other anxieties surrounding their beloved Buckeyes, could the sports gods at least shine a little light on the Indians for the sake of their tortured fans?

Jimenez Back?

Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Rockies Tuesday night at San Diego fresh off his first win of the year last week at Dodger Stadium. The Rockies had gone 1-8 in his first nine starts with Jimenez taking the loss in five of them, yet the money-lines didn’t decrease too much on him throughout the drought. It was as if he got a free pass for all the bad starts with everyone setting the lines knowing he would eventually come around, and he did.

Perhaps it’s more about the Dodgers lineup and pitching at their park, but he was dominant in a 3-0 complete game shutout win and looked every bit as good as he was for the first half of last season. We may not get a full gauge on whether Jimenez is completely back until two weeks during interleague play because he faces another weak lineup in San Diego’s park and then faces the Dodgers at home, both teams that he should be expected to shut down under the circumstances. The real test for may not be until Detroit visits Coors Field where he’s expected to start on June 19.

Big Z Sounds Off

The Cubs have lost six in a row with the last two coming on walk off homers by Albert Pujols. Sunday’s starting pitcher, Carlos Zambrano (5-2), who left with a 2-1 lead after pitching seven innings questioned the pitch selection of closer Carlos Marmol in the ninth inning to Ryan Theriot who hit the game tying double to send the game into extra innings.

"The problem wasn't Pujols. The problem was (Theriot's) at-bat," Zambrano said. "We should have known better than this. We are playing like a Triple-A team. This is embarrassing. Embarrassing for the team and the owners. Embarrassing for the fans. Embarrassing, that's the word for this team. We should play better here. We stink. That's all I've got to say."

This was the second game in a row that Zambrano has allowed one run with his team winning only to see Marmol implode. Last Tuesday Marmol allowed the Astros to rally for six runs in the ninth during a 7-3 loss.

Over Zambrano’s last four starts he has been one of the more consistent starters in baseball, but has failed to go past the eighth in any of his starts all season. He didn’t actually call out Marmol’s name, but he described the situation so we all knew who he was talking about. He may have went about things the wrong way, but he has every right to be upset that his quality contributions to a team that has struggled have been wasted.

Young Starters

I have fallen out of love quickly with one of my favorite young pitchers. Zach Britton of Baltimore was the latest to be on my disowned list after two consecutive starts of giving up five runs or more. The biggest disappointment came May 29 when he lost at Oakland giving up six runs to that lineup. Prior to that, Britton was just rolling along like he’d been in the league for a few years, but it appears that all the scouts have converged on what his deal is and he hasn’t been able to adjust. It was a nice run, though. The Orioles won seven of his first 10 starts.

Josh Tomlin gave in quite bit his last start against Toronto giving up six runs, but the Indians won quite easily and gave him his seventh win of the year. It was Tomlin’s worst outing of the year. The Indians have won eight of his 11 starts this season as he heads into Monday’s game against the Twins. They need him to come up big now more than ever.

In Tomlin’s start against Toronto he faced Kyle Drabek who didn’t make it out of the first inning. Between three walks and four hits, the Indians pounded him for four runs. It was the first time this season that the walks finally caught up with Drabek who now has 45 walks to 43 K’s. The fact still remains that Toronto is 8-4 with him as the starter even though Drabek is 3-4.

Meanwhile, Michael Pineda keeps rolling along. After losing his first start of the season the Mariners have gone on to win seven of his last 10 starts and he’s 6-2 heading into Monday night’s start at Chicago. Unlike the other three rookie pitchers, Pineda has been dominating only allowing more than three runs in a game once. In seven of his starts he’s allowed one earned run or less making him not just a candidate for rookie of the year, but for the Cy Young as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:14 PM

Nationals are huge underdogs against Lincecum Monday

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (26-33)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (33-26)

First Pitch: Monday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -200, Washington +185, Total: 6

The defending World Series champs host the Nationals in the first of a three-game series on Monday at AT&T Park. These teams played a low-scoring series earlier this year in Washington, when the Nats took three of four, outscoring the Giants 11-4.

John Lannan (3-5, 4.05 ERA) will start for Washington. After allowing six runs in six innings in a loss at Baltimore, Lannan has allowed just one unearned run in going 1-0 in his past two starts, throwing 13 IP and allowing just six hits. Lannan has really struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his six starts. Lannan is 0-1 in his two career starts against the Giants, but has suffered from a lack of run support (three total runs) in those starts. Lannan has allowed just three runs in these 13.2 innings (1.98 ERA), but has also surrendered 14 hits and eight walks, giving him a lofty 1.61 WHIP.

Tim Lincecum (5-4, 2.59 ERA) gets the start for San Francisco. Lincecum is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA in his past three starts, but allowed a season-high 10 hits and a season-high-tying five runs in his last start in getting a no-decision Wednesday against the Cardinals. Despite the Nationals having the majors worst record since his first full season in majors in 2008, he has not had much success against them. Lincecum last beat the Nationals on June 6, 2008, allowing one run in seven innings. In three meetings since, he's 0-2 with a 5.50 ERA while striking out 19 and walking seven in 18 innings. The last time he faced them on April 29, Lincecum yielded three runs and seven hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings, but Jason Marquis only gave up five Giants hits in a 3-0 Washington win.

Washington enters Monday with the National League’s worst record at 12-21, and its .224 team BA on the road is also the worst in the majors. I like Lincecum to take advantage of this and snap his losing streak against the Nationals. I’m taking heavily-favored San Francisco, which is 17-6 (.739) in the past 23 Lincecum starts, including playoffs.

The FoxSheets also like the Giants to win, evidenced by these two highly-rated trends.

SAN FRANCISCO is 15-2 (88.2%, +13.6 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 6.0, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (116-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.4%, +55 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:15 PM

Red-hot Mariners open 3-game set vs. White Sox

SEATTLE MARINERS (31-28)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (28-33)

First Pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -105, Chicago -105, Total: 8

The White Sox host the Mariners on Monday in the first of a three-game series at U.S. Cellular Field. Chicago has lost its past two games after winning four straight, but is 9-1 (+8.0 Units) in the past 10 home meetings with Seattle.

The Mariners are on quite a roll. Since losing six straight games in mid-May, Seattle has gone 15-5 and not lost consecutive games over that span. On Monday, the Mariners will throw Rookie of the Year candidate Michael Pineda (6-2, 2.30 ERA) who has been sensational in his first season in the majors. Since allowing a season-high four runs in a May 4 loss against Texas, Pineda is 2-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, striking out 34 and walking just eight in his 32 IP.

Seattle has played well during this stretch while Ichiro has really struggled. Ichiro is just hitting .169 in his past 17 games, going hitless in 10 of those games. June has usually been kind to Ichiro, as he had a .371 BA in June from 2006-2010. But after getting two hits on June 1, Ichiro is just 2-for-18 since, with both hits coming on Sunday.

The White Sox look to get back on the winning track after dropping the final two games of their series against the Tigers. Chicago will send John Danks (0-8, 5.25 ERA) whom nothing has gone right for this season. Chicago has lost 10 of his 11 starts, the worst of which came in his last start, allowing nine runs and nine hits (3 HR) in just four innings in a loss at Toronto. That was the fifth time this season that Danks has allowed at least 4 ER in a start. There is some good news for Danks and the White Sox, as he’s had some recent success against the Mariners, going 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his past five starts against them.

The Mariners are very tough with Pineda on the mound, and I like him to shut down the bats of Chicago. I’m taking Seattle to win.

The FoxSheets provide two more highly-rated trends which support the Mariners pick.

JOHN DANKS is 0-10 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record). The average score was DANKS 2.5, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Play On - Road teams (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20%. (69-26 since 1997.) (72.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:16 PM

Lee tries to cool off smoking-hot Dodgers bats

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (28-32)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (35-24)

First Pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -185, Los Angeles +175, Total: 7.5

The Dodgers travel to the city of brotherly love on Monday when they take on the first-place Phillies.

Ted Lilly (4-4, 4.22 ERA) looks to build on three consecutive strong starts, as he has allowed six total runs and 17 hits in 20 innings over that span (2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), getting two no-decisions and a win in his last start Tuesday. Lilly has not had much success against the Phillies in his career, going 1-4 with a 5.91 ERA. Lilly has not enjoyed Citizens Bank Park at all, allowing 14 runs (12 ER) and 15 hits (4 HR) in lasting just 8.1 inning in two starts there, both losses when he was a member of the Cubs. The Dodgers are playing solid baseball overall right now, as they have won seven of their past 11 games.

After snapping their season-high, five-game losing streak on Sunday, the Phillies will send Cliff Lee (4-5, 3.94 ERA) to the mound. Lee was roughed up in his last outing on Tuesday against the Nationals, allowing six runs and seven hits in 5.1 innings of a 10-2 loss. This came after Lee had won two straight starts, going eight innings in each start and allowing four runs in the latter outing. Both of those starts came at home, where Lee has had success this season, going 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA, allowing three runs or fewer in five of those six starts. Lee only faced the Dodgers once in the regular season, allowing six hits and one run in 7.1 innings in a getting a no-decision while with Cleveland in 2008. He dominated L.A. in Game 3 of the 2009 NLCS, throwing eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits and no walks, while fanning 10 batters in an 11-0 victory. Lee has been very tough this season coming off a loss, going 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his four starts this season following his defeats.

The Dodgers offense has picked up the pace in their past seven games, averaging 6.3 runs per game and hitting .302 as a team over that span. Matt Kemp has been especially hot, hitting four HR and collecting 12 of his NL-leading 48 RBI in his last five games. Lee has faced Kemp just four times, holding him to one hit with one strikeout. Lee has responded well coming off losses this season, and I like that to continue on Monday. I’m taking Philadelphia and Lee to calm down the bats of the Dodgers.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Phillies.

CHARLIE MANUEL is 34-12 (73.9%, +20.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games with no home runs as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.7, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (L.A. DODGERS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (59-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.7%, +29.6 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:18 PM

Milwaukee goes for sweep of Florida Monday

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (33-26)

at FLORIDA MARLINS (31-26)

First Pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -130, Florida +120, Total: 8.5

The Brewers will try to complete a four-game sweep over Florida for the first time since 1998 when they take on the Marlins on Monday. Milwaukee has won 19 of its past 25 contests to move within two games of the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Zack Greinke (4-1, 5.29 ERA) will make his seventh start of the season on Sunday. After recording a 6.43 ERA in his first four outings this season, Greinke has two straight quality starts (3.46 ERA). He allowed two runs and six hits while striking out six over six innings in his last start Tuesday against the Reds. Greinke struggled a bit with his command, walking three after issuing just three walks in 28 innings over his first five outings. But he still has an impressive 45 K and just 6 BB in 34 IP this year. Monday will be Greinke’s second career start against the Marlins. He allowed three runs over six innings in defeating them in 2008.

Florida has now lost a season-high four straight games (all by one run) and will send Javier Vazquez (3-4, 6.02 ERA) to the mound hoping to end its losing streak. Vazquez has really struggled in his return to the NL, allowing at least 4 ER in seven of his 11 starts. He struggled in his last outing Wednesday, allowing four runs over six innings against the Diamondbacks. His two previous starts prior to that were his best of the season, as Vazquez allowed just two runs and six hits in 13 innings (one win, one no-decision in a loss). Vazquez will be making his first start against the Brewers since 2009, and is 6-7 with a 4.89 ERA in his career against them (16 starts).

The Marlins have really struggled with runners in scoring position this series, as they left 11 men on base on Sunday, going 2-for-10 with men in scoring position. For the series, they have stranded 31 runners and are hitting .156 (5-for-32) with RISP in the three losses. I like the Brewers to continue to take advantage of this unclutch hitting (and Florida star SS Hanley Ramirez on the DL) and win with Greinke on the mound. I’m taking Milwaukee to complete the four-game sweep.

These two FoxSheets trends also like the Brewers.

MILWAUKEE is 27-13 (67.5%, +14.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (FLORIDA) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. (33-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (66%, +23 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2011, 07:27 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

06/05/11 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2515 Detail
06/04/11 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*65 Detail
06/03/11 14-*16-*0 46.67% -*1095 Detail
06/02/11 8-*3-*1 72.73% +*2485 Detail
06/01/11 15-*13-*1 53.57% +*1345 Detail

Totals 69-*59-*3 53.91% +5185

Monday, June 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland +100 500
Baltimore - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -147 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET LA Dodgers +174 500
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Florida +118 500
Florida - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +126 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Detroit - 8:05 PM ET Detroit +148 500
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Seattle +102 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +105 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

Tampa Bay - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels +128 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

Colorado - 10:05 PM ET San Diego +101 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Washington - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -180 500
San Francisco - Over 6 500

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