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YTD 39-45 -11.1 units
3* 2-1 +2.7 units
2* 2-4 -4.8 units
1* 36-40 -9.0 units
Story of my NBA season last play when I lost a 2* on the Bulls collapse in game five. I post them the way I bet them and I'm hammering a play tonight. Buyer beware: I've been struggling in hoops.......
3* Heat/Mavs OVER 186 1/2
1) Dallas and Miami were as ugly offensively as possible in game one but still ended up with 176 points, only 10 1/2 lower than this total. If they play only average offensively, they should soar over the number.
2) Both teams shot under 40 percent in game one. Dallas hasn't shot under 40 IN TWO MONTHS!!! As screwed up as the Heat's offense is, they generally shoot in the mid-40s. If both teams revert to normal shooting, the game gets into the high 190s.
3) Miami's strength is NOT its offense, but its defense. Having said that, Dallas has a hard time matching up here because Chandler is too slow for Bosh and they can't risk Dirk guarding Lebron because of potential foul trouble.
4) The refs in game one allowed both teams to get away with murder defensively. I look for more whistles tonight and that means more free throws.
5) Let me add one other point. Both teams are 47 percent shooters for the year. If each shoots 47 percent tonight (probably a reach), by my claculations the total should get to 205. That's basing it on the number of shots both teams took in game one and the likelihood of more free throws. This pick is a solid numbers play.
Opinion only: Heat
3* 2-1 +2.7 units
2* 2-4 -4.8 units
1* 36-40 -9.0 units
Story of my NBA season last play when I lost a 2* on the Bulls collapse in game five. I post them the way I bet them and I'm hammering a play tonight. Buyer beware: I've been struggling in hoops.......
3* Heat/Mavs OVER 186 1/2
1) Dallas and Miami were as ugly offensively as possible in game one but still ended up with 176 points, only 10 1/2 lower than this total. If they play only average offensively, they should soar over the number.
2) Both teams shot under 40 percent in game one. Dallas hasn't shot under 40 IN TWO MONTHS!!! As screwed up as the Heat's offense is, they generally shoot in the mid-40s. If both teams revert to normal shooting, the game gets into the high 190s.
3) Miami's strength is NOT its offense, but its defense. Having said that, Dallas has a hard time matching up here because Chandler is too slow for Bosh and they can't risk Dirk guarding Lebron because of potential foul trouble.
4) The refs in game one allowed both teams to get away with murder defensively. I look for more whistles tonight and that means more free throws.
5) Let me add one other point. Both teams are 47 percent shooters for the year. If each shoots 47 percent tonight (probably a reach), by my claculations the total should get to 205. That's basing it on the number of shots both teams took in game one and the likelihood of more free throws. This pick is a solid numbers play.
Opinion only: Heat
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