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**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 12:22 AM

MLB Betting: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Last season, the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays squared off in the American League Division Series during the playoffs in an epic series in which the road team won all five games. Now, the two continue their first series of the season this year in MLB betting action at Tropicana Field on Wednesday afternoon.

The first pitch on getaway day will come at 10:10 a.m. (PT). Fox Sports Southwest and Sun Sports will have local TV coverage of this duel.

Dale Scott has already seen the Rangers and the Rays once this season as the man behind the plate, and both teams came away with losses. Scott has nine 'overs' against three 'unders' in his 12 games behind the dish, and he has given the home team eight wins in a dozen tries as well.

David Price was the tough-luck man that ran up against Cliff Lee last year in the playoffs twice, losing Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS. Those aren't his only struggles against Texas in his career, though. Price has an 0-2 mark and a 7.45 ERA in his four regular season outings, numbers which definitely aren't to be proud of.

No, this southpaw isn't quite pitching like the Cy Young contender as he was last year, but he is coming off a fine effort against the Indians. Price fanned 12 over seven scoreless innings to raise his record to 6-4 and lower his ERA to 3.54.

The good news for Price is that he is keeping his walks down. That was his one bugaboo last season, as he allowed 79 free passes. This year, just 13 in 11 starts.

About the best news that Price could have in this game is that he won't be seeing Lee in the other dugout. Colby Lewis is no slouch though, and don't let his 4-5 record for the year fool you. This righty is the real deal with a 3.90 ERA overall and just 2.63 on the road.

Batters are only hitting .245 against Lewis on the season, and his WHIP is 1.19. He already has a pair of complete games, both on the road, including a complete game shutout at the Chicago White Sox back on May 16.

Lewis just had his first start since April 25 which wasn't a quality start as he allowed six runs (four earned) in six frames vs. the Kansas City Royals. Against the Rays for his career, Lewis is 2-0, but he has gotten a lot of help from his offense. He has a 7.71 ERA and Tampa Bay is batting .289 against him.

The Rays have only won three of their last 10 games going into play Tuesday. More bad news for Tampa Bay is the road team has won six straight in this series, including last year in the playoffs.

The good news is that Price has led manager Joe Maddon's club to 35 wins in his last 51 starts overall. Lewis is also just 3-13 in his last 16 road starts against teams with winning records.

The Rangers will move on from Tampa Bay for a Thursday contest in Cleveland that starts a 4-game series. The Rays also head out on the MLB highway, facing the longest flight of their season with a trip up to Seattle to begin a series with the Mariners on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 12:34 AM

Wednesday Tips

May 31, 2011

Two months are in the books with several surprise teams leading divisions. Not many people should be shocked that the Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rangers are all atop their respective divisions, but two of the clubs nobody expected to succeed are the Indians and Diamondbacks. Arizona owned a 15-22 record on May 13, as the D-Backs have rolled off 15 wins in the last 17 games to take over the lead in the NL West. The Wednesday card in the National League is highlighted by Arizona's series finale against a suddenly struggling Florida squad.

Marlins at Diamondbacks - 7:40 PM EST

The hottest team in April was Cleveland, but fittingly enough as we head towards summer the D-Backs are scorching with their latest run. A young rotation and much-improved bullpen has given up four runs or less in six of the last seven games, while the lineup has plated 43 runs in the past five contests. Arizona tries to stay hot as Florida wraps up a nine-game road trip that is suddenly going backwards after a strong start.

The Marlins swept the Giants to begin the road swing, but lost two of three at Los Angeles, followed by a 15-4 drubbing by the Diamondbacks on Monday. Former D-Backs' righty Javier Vazquez (3-4, 6.02 ERA) is coming off consecutive quality starts for the first time this season. The Marlins fell to the Dodgers on a walk-off single last Friday, but Vazquez allowed three hits in six innings of work in a 3-2 defeat. Florida is 4-2 in Vazquez's six road starts, while cashing the 'over' four times in this span. Vazquez beat the D-Backs as a member of the Yankees last season, 6-5, but gave up four earned runs in five innings.

Daniel Hudson (6-5, 4.12 ERA) has looked good when taking the mound at Chase Field with a 4-2 record, while putting up four straight quality starts at home. The right-hander allowed six runs in six innings at Houston last Friday, but Arizona bailed out Hudson with a massive rally as the D-Backs stunned the Astros, 7-6 to get him off the hook. It seems like it doesn't make a difference which pitcher starts for Arizona at this point, as the D-Backs are 6-1 in Hudson's last seven starts overall.

Brewers at Reds - 7:10 PM EST

If Milwaukee subtracted its record against Cincinnati this season, the Brewers look pretty good. However, the Reds are 6-1 through the first two months against the Brewers, including a perfect 4-0 mark at the Great American Ballpark. Ron Roenicke's club isn't taking care of business on the highway with an 8-18 ledger away from Miller Park, but looks to turn things around with its most consistent pitcher taking the hill.

The Crew sends out Shaun Marcum (6-2, 2.80 ERA), who looks to tie teammate Yovani Gallardo with an NL-best seven wins (six other pitchers have won seven games). Marcum's shortest outing came in his Brewers' debut at Cincinnati, allowing four earned runs in 4.2 innings as the Reds picked up a 4-2 victory. The ex-Blue Jays' right-hander has responded well following a non-quality outing with a 3-0 record after squandering a three-run lead in a 5-4 home loss to the Giants last Friday.

Following a demotion to the bullpen and off-the-field troubles, Mike Leake (4-2, 5.10 ERA) returned to the Reds' rotation with a bang this past Friday. The former Arizona State standout scattered seven hits and one earned run in six innings of a 5-1 victory at Atlanta, cashing as a $1.50 underdog. Leake won his first three home starts before getting roughed up by the Astros in early May, two weeks after getting arrested for an alleged shoplifting incident. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in Leake's four home starts, while he received a no-decision in Milwaukee's lone win over Cincinnati on April 26 at Miller Park.

Giants at Cardinals - 8:10 PM EST

San Francisco is hanging tough behind Arizona in the NL West despite the loss of catcher Buster Posey to a season-ending ankle injury. The Giants are 2-3 since Posey got hurt in a home-plate collision against the Marlins, but San Francisco's starting pitchers has tossed at least seven innings four times in this span. Included is Tim Lincecum's seven-inning effort in San Francisco's comeback win at Milwaukee in his last outing, as the former Cy Young Award winner toes the rubber on Wednesday.

Lincecum (5-4, 2.22 ERA) ranks fourth in the NL in ERA, while compiling quality starts in five of his last six outings. Even though the win-loss record isn't dazzling, the Giants' ace has been provided with two runs or less in four starts. San Francisco is 5-1 in Lincecum's six career starts against St. Louis, including a 3-1 mark at Busch Stadium. The lone loss came last August as he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings of a 5-1 setback.

The Cardinals look to maintain their hold on the NL Central lead with Jake Westbrook (5-3, 5.19 ERA) on the mound. Following a shaky start, Westbrook is fresh off three straight victories, while allowing four earned runs in the last 20 innings. In fact, the Redbirds are 6-1 in the right-hander's previous seven outings, including three home wins. Westbrook hasn't seen success against the Giants in two career starts as St. Louis is 0-2 in those games, including a 5-4 defeat at AT&T Park in early April.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 12:38 AM

Wednesday, June 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 1:05 PM ET Washington +138 500
Washington - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 1:10 PM ET Texas +133 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 1:35 PM ET Chi. White Sox +132 500
Boston - Over 9 500

Houston - 2:20 PM ET Houston +122 500
Chi. Cubs -

NY Yankees - 3:35 PM ET Oakland -117 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Baltimore - 3:40 PM ET Baltimore +150 500
Seattle - Over 7 500

LA Angels - 4:10 PM ET Kansas City +100 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:39 PM

Yankees try to beat A's for 10th straight time

NEW YORK YANKEES (30-23)

at OAKLAND ATHLETICS (27-29)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 3:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -115, New York +105, Total: 7.5

They may be on West Coast time, but the bats are bombing like they’re from the Bronx. The New York Yankees have won 10 of their past 14 games, are back on top in the AL East, and will send A.J. Burnett to the hill Wednesday afternoon in hopes of completing a three-game sweep of the offensively-challenged Oakland Athletics. The Yankees started this West Coast swing in Seattle, and while they were able to get to the dynamic duo of Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, it was the Mariners bullpen that helped shut down the bombers in the middle and late innings, helping the home team take two out of three. So far in Oakland, none of the Athletics’ pitchers have slowed down the Yankee bats, as Joe Girardi’s team has posted 15 runs and 19 hits in the first two games of the series.

Burnett (5-3, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) is trying to establish some consistency, especially in terms of his performance on the road, where he is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA in four starts, and a K-to-BB ratio that is less impressive (20 K/12 BB) than his numbers at home (32 K/15 BB). Burnett is 1-1 with a no-decision in his past three starts. His last outing Friday lasted only five innings, and in that game Burnett showed his control issues away from Yankee Stadium, as he walked five Mariners batters while striking out six. Burnett is 4-3 lifetime when starting against Oakland with an ERA of 3.88 and a WHIP of 1.40. His team's record is 5-4 in these starts. Burnett defeated Oakland twice last season, allowing 11 hits and five earned runs in 13 total innings (3.46 ERA).

With Tuesday’s victory the Yankees have defeated Oakland nine straight and 22 of the last 25 times. Curtis Granderson continued his sizzling 2011, going 3-for-5 with a home run, four RBI and two runs scored. Granderson is second in the AL in homers (17) and tied for third in RBI (41). His first-inning homer off of A’s lefty Brett Anderson was the first one the southpaw has allowed to a left-handed hitter in nearly two years. But four innings later, lefty-hitting Robinson Cano hit a two-run shot off Anderson. Other hitting stars during Tuesday’s win included Derek Jeter, who had two hits and scored three times, and Alex Rodriguez, who had three hits and three RBI.

Gio Gonzalez (5-2, 2.17 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) will try and slow down the Yankee bats and salvage the final game of the series. While he is second on the team in wins, he leads the A’s staff in ERA and strikeouts (63). Gonzalez has one win in his past three outings, and in his most recent effort, only lasted five innings, allowing two runs (1 ER), five hits, five walks and fanning seven in a no-decision against Baltimore. Gonzalez is 1-2 when starting against the Yanks with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.73. The two losses came last season, when Gonzalez lasted just 4 and 4.1 innings in the starts, as he walked five and struck out five in each of the starts. In total, Gonzalez allowed 11 hits and 10 earned runs in the losses. Oakland is hoping that the 2011 Gonzalez, with his 63 K-to-28 BB ratio and measly ERA can shut down the Bombers.

Did I say shut down? Actually a shutout might be more of a necessity. Oakland is only hitting .241 as a team this season. Its 31 home runs are last in the league, and with just 200 runs scored in 56 games (3.6 per game) the A’s do not have the kind of attack that can play from behind and expect to win against a potent offense like the Yankees. If Oakland is to get a win in this matinee affair, it will need Gonzalez to be at his best, and Burnett to be at his wildest at the Overstock.com Coliseum.

The pick here is for Oakland to salvage the last game of this three-game set on the strength of its pitching. The FoxSheets support the pick with these two highly-rated trends.

Play On - Home teams (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL. (265-161 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.2%, +83.5 units. Rating = 3*).

A.J. BURNETT is 3-21 (12.5%, -19.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was BURNETT 2.4, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:40 PM

Pineda's Mariners go for sweep of Orioles Wednesday

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (24-29)

at SEATTLE MARINERS (28-26)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 3:40 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -160, Baltimore +150, Total: 7

If Seattle manager Eric Wedge and Baltimore manager Buck Showalter had their way, Wednesday’s pitching matchup between Brian Matusz and Michael Pineda will replay itself in the coming years in game one or two of a playoff series. These two young hurlers represent the future contention hopes of their respective franchises. On Wednesday, we get a glimpse at the future. Matusz hopes that his future includes more health than his past.

Matusz will make his 2011 debut for the Orioles Wednesday afternoon at Safeco Field. In his short career he has made 40 starts, and has a career record of 15-14 with an ERA of 4.37. Matusz has been sidelined since suffering a mid back strain just as the season started. The recovery was a tedious one, but now he is eager to join his teammates and provide Showalter with the quality effort fans have been expecting ever since he debuted in 2009. Baltimore fans will be seeing Matusz for the first time this season, and Seattle fans will be seeing him for the first time ever, as he has never faced the Mariners in his brief career. Baltimore is hoping that Matusz can provide an emotional lift after losing a heartbreaker Tuesday night, 3-2. Starter Jeremy Guthrie held the Mariners without a run for seven innings, but with two on and two out in the bottom of the eighth, Justin Smoak fired up the home faithful with a three-run HR over the right field wall. The hard-luck Guthrie fell to 2-7 on the year. It was the second time this season Guthrie threw an eight-inning complete game and lost.

Baltimore came to the West Coast with a five-game winning streak. Now they are on the verge of back-to-back, three-game sweeps. Run production has been scarce during the five-game losing skid, with the offense generating just 13 runs and a .212 BA during the drought. Wednesday’s opposing pitcher could make the O’s look worse than those statistics if he is on his game.

Rookie Michael Pineda (6-2, 2.42 ERA, 0.995 WHIP) will be facing the Orioles for the second time in 2011. The first meeting saw Pineda take a no-decision in a game that Baltimore eventually won 7-6. In this May 10 meeting, Pineda pitched six innings, allowing seven hits and three runs, striking out six and walking one. Most recently, Pineda has won two of his past three starts, taking a no-decision in his last outing Friday versus the Yankees. Pineda only gave up three hits in five innings, but one of the hits was a home run, and if not for Franklin Gutierrez’s home-run robbing catch of a Nick Swisher drive in the fourth inning, things could have been much worse. Pineda allowed three runs in the short stint, as he was victimized by his poor control, walking as many batters (five) as he struck out. Prior to this game, Pineda threw seven shutout innings versus both San Diego and Minnesota, fanning 16 and walking only one batter in the 14 innings of work.

Seattle has won 11 of its past 13 and resides in second place, just ½ game behind Texas in the AL West, this despite having one of the most anemic offenses in all of baseball. They rank 27th in runs scored and are last in the majors in batting average (.226 BA), slugging percentage (.325) and home runs (38). Of course, as Smoak reminded us all with two outs in the eighth inning on Tuesday, it’s not just about how many you hit, but when you hit them.

The pick here is for Seattle to take advantage of the imbalance in the pitching matchup and complete the sweep at home over Baltimore. The FoxSheets show a pair of three-star trends in favor of the Mariners:

SEATTLE is 20-8 (71.4%, +14.2 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.9, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*).

BALTIMORE is 4-18 (18.2%, -13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:40 PM

Lincecum looks to shut down St. Louis bats

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (29-25)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (33-23)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -120, St. Louis +110, Total: 7

St. Louis and San Francisco play the third of their four-game series on Wednesday night at Busch Stadium. The teams have split the first two games, with the Giants taking Monday’s contest 7-3 and the Cardinals winning 4-3 on Tuesday.

The Giants who have now lost six of their past eight games, will send Tim Lincecum (5-4, 2.22 ERA) to the mound. Lincecum went 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA in May, capping it with a pair of victories. He pitched a three-hit shutout in a 3-0 win over Oakland on May 21, then gave up three runs over seven innings Friday in Milwaukee, going from a likely loss to a 5-4 win thanks to rookie Brandon Crawford's seventh-inning grand slam. The two-time Cy Young Award winner was 5-0 with a 1.61 ERA against the Cardinals before giving up four runs over 5.1 innings in a 5-1 loss Aug. 21 at Busch.

The Cardinals came back from being down 3-1 to score three runs in the eighth inning and rally for a 4-3 win Tuesday. St. Louis has now won 11 of 15 and sends Jake Westbrook (5-3, 5.19 ERA) to the mound on Wednesday in search of his fourth straight win. After giving up one run over 15 innings in wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City, Westbrook allowed three runs in five innings at Colorado, earning the win in a 10-3 victory. He is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his past three home starts after opening 0-2 with an 18.41 ERA. Westbrook has made just two career starts against San Francisco, including allowing three runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings in a no-decision at AT&T Park on April 8. In these two starts, his ERA is 4.63 and his WHIP is an atrocious 1.80 (11.2 IP, 15 H, 6 BB).

The Giants offense has struggled since losing Buster Posey for the season on May 25, scoring just 17 runs and hitting just .218 in those six games. However facing Westbrook who they had success against earlier this season, and with Lincecum on the mound, I’m taking San Francisco.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend which also sides with the Giants.

SAN FRANCISCO is 64-30 (68.1%, +35.4 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:41 PM

Detroit aims to sweep away struggling Twins

MINNESOTA TWINS (17-36)

at DETROIT TIGERS (28-26)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -155, Minnesota +145, Total: 8

The Tigers go for the sweep of the Twins as the AL Central rivals complete their three-game series Wednesday at Comerica Field. Despite hitting two homers on Tuesday, Justin Morneau struck out with the tying and go-ahead runs on base in the ninth inning of the Twins 8-7 loss.

Minnesota, which reached the postseason six times from 2001-2010, is 2-9 in its past 11 games and sits 15.5 games behind the Indians in the AL Central with the worst record in the majors (17-36). Scott Baker (2-3, 3.65 ERA) will start for the Twins. Baker is 0-1 with a 4.84 ERA in four starts since winning at Boston on May 6, but he allowed six hits in seven scoreless innings Friday before Minnesota's bullpen blew a five-run lead in a 6-5 loss to the Angels. The right-hander is 6-4 with a 4.84 ERA in 21 starts against the Tigers, but Detroit has destroyed him in the past nine starts since 2009 (6.85 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, .323 Opponent’s BA). Baker allowed five runs, six hits and five walks in 4.1 innings, and did not factor in the decision of a 9-7 loss to Detroit on May 11.

In a season of streaks for the Tigers, they find themselves riding a winning one now, with three straight victories. Rick Porcello (4-3, 3.93 ERA) gets the start on Wednesday. After starting the season poorly (he lost both his first two starts and allowed 5 ER in each game), Porcello was sensational over his next six starts, going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He suffered through his worst start of the season in his last start on May 27 against Boston, allowing six runs on six hits in just three innings in a 6-3 loss. Porcello is 3-3 with a 2.66 ERA in his eight career starts against the Twins. He defeated them earlier this season on May 10, allowing three hits and one run in five innings in the Tigers 10-2 win.

The Twins just can’t do anything right these days, and I like Porcello to get back on track and defeat them for the second time this season.

The FoxSheets back up my Detroit pick with this three-star trend.

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (DETROIT) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL). (163-52 since 1997.) (75.8%, +74.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:42 PM

Marcum tries to continue Brewers hot streak in Cincinnati

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (30-25)

at CINCINNATI REDS (28-28)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -105, Cincinnati -105, Total: 8.5

The Brewers continue their seven-game road trip with the finale of their three-game series against the Reds. Milwaukee won for just the second time in its past 14 games at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, as Zack Greinke allowed just two runs in six innings to get the win.

Milwaukee, looking to win for the 17th time in its past 22 games, will send Shaun Marcum (6-2, 2.80 ERA) to the mound, However, just three of these wins came on the road where the Brewers are a woeful 9-18 on the season. Marcum has been the one glaring exception to his team’s road struggles this season. Since allowing four runs (3 ER) in 4.2 innings in his first road start of the season at Cincinnati, Marcum is 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA, allowing just three runs (2 ER) in his five road starts (34 IP), while posting a 0.79 WHIP. Marcum will look to avenge that loss against the Reds on Wednesday, which was his only previous start against Cincinnati.

The Reds are on the opposite track of the Brewers having lost 11 of their past 14 games. Cincinnati sends Mike Leake (4-2, 5.10 ERA) to the mound, who's back in the rotation after spending two weeks in the minors to work on his control. Leake surrendered three walks and seven hits over six innings Friday in Atlanta, but allowed only one run in a 5-1 victory. Leake's lone career start against the Brewers came April 26 at Miller Park. Solo homers to Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder were the only damages Leake encountered over seven innings, but he left without a decision in Milwaukee's 3-2 loss.

The Brewers have not won consecutive road games since April 18-19, but with Marcum on the mound they will end that streak Wednesday. I’m taking Milwaukee to continue its hot play and defeat the Reds.

The FoxSheets show two more trends that side with the Brewers:

MILWAUKEE is 26-14 (65.0%, +11.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

DUSTY BAKER is 23-41 (35.9%, -25.8 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span as the manager of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 06:43 PM

Dodgers try to finish off sweep of Rockies

COLORADO ROCKIES (25-29)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (26-30)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Colorado -125, Los Angeles +115, Total: 7

The Dodgers will look for the three-game sweep on Wednesday when they host the Rockies in the finale of their series at Dodger Stadium.

The Rockies are perhaps the happiest team in the majors to see June, as they suffered through an awful May. Colorado went 8-21 in May to go from 4.5 games ahead in first on May 1, to 4.5 games behind the first-place Diamondbacks on June 1. Coming off one of his worst outings of the season, Ubaldo Jimenez (0-5, 5.86 ERA) will take the mound Wednesday. Jimenez allowed 12 hits and six runs in six innings in a loss against St. Louis on Friday. That was the fifth time that Jimenez allowed at least 4 ER in a start this season. Perhaps best explaining the term “What a difference a year makes,” Jimenez was 10-1 with a 0.78 ERA on June 1 last season. After going 4-0 in his first six starts against the Dodgers, Jimenez has really struggled in his past nine outings against them, going 2-6 with a 4.88 ERA. Both of those wins came at Dodger Stadium, where despite allowing 29 ER in 42 IP (6.21 ERA), Jimenez is 3-2 in his eight lifetime visits.

The Dodgers will try for a season-high fourth straight win on Wednesday when they send Jon Garland (1-4, 4.31 ERA) to the mound. Garland is 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his past six starts. Garland gave up one run and five hits over 6.1 innings in his last start, but the Dodgers bullpen gave up the tying run in the eighth during an eventual 3-2 win. Garland is 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies and earned the win in a 7-6 road victory for San Diego on Sept. 14, allowing three runs (2 ER) and four hits over seven innings.

After struggling on offense for most of the season, the Dodgers have scored 23 runs in their past three games, going 11-for-24 with RISP. I don’t see Jimenez and his struggles this season stopping their current hot streak. I’m taking Los Angeles, which is supported by these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends.

Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (COLORADO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. (52-29 since 1997.) (64.2%, +41.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (L.A. DODGERS) - after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after a loss by 4 runs or more. (66-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +34.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 07:07 PM

MLB Betting Notes

June 1, 2011

With Tuesday’s 5-2 loss to the Marlins, the Arizona Diamondbacks are now 13-2 in their last 15 games and 15-3 in their last 18, which begs the question: Are they for real?
Over that three week stretch, Arizona has given us a little bit of everything to do with excellence in baseball from dominant pitching, offensive fire power to great managing in close games.

Manager Kirk Gibson has this young team molded with his own personality stamped all over it, but the type of run we just saw looks to be more about a young team overachieving rather than getting ready for postseason play.

When looking at all the teams they ran into during their run, it wasn’t exactly filled with baseball’s best, but more about catching mediocre teams on a slide. Mixed in with those 13 wins were three each against baseball’s worst, Houston and Minnesota. They won two thrillers against the Braves, caught the Rockies in another offensive slump and also took two from the less than fearsome Dodgers attack.

The strength of their pitching has been their bullpen led by an energized J.J. Putz who leads the National League with 16 saves. He has been lights out when given the lead with no blown saves giving the D-Backs all kinds of confidence in close games. They are 26-0 when leading going into the ninth inning.

Ian Kennedy (6-2) has been brilliant at times this season, but the rest of the rotation has been just kind of getting by. Even Daniel Hudson (6-5), who has been better than most expected this season, has been quite fortunate to win some of his games despite allowing quite a few runs.

While Putz and Kennedy have carried the staff, the Arizona bats have carried the rest of team all season. They currently lead the NL in home runs and it looks like Justin Upton is finally ready to live up to all the potential. But in today’s baseball, you must have three great starters to compete for a playoff birth and Arizona doesn‘t have that yet.

In this new era of pitching dominating baseball, it will be hard for Arizona to keep up with all the teams that do have the work horses. When they start facing more competitive teams and winning two of three and three of four, then they’ll be a team heading into August that we can make a case for.

As great as 50/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $5,000) on them to win the World Series may sound, it may be better to pass. The only thing they do have going for them is playing in the NL West where the Dodgers and Padres look like they may be pushovers. The division will probably only have one playoff team and right now it looks like the Giants are the team to still beat and we know the Rockies will have one of their mile high runs coming closer to September.

Gas Can

Bobby Jenks was activated from the disabled list Tuesday which probably doesn’t make many Red Sox fans happy because the guy can throw fuel of the fire like maybe only Eric Gagne could in a Boston uniform. Before his one inning stint in garbage time Tuesday -- where he allowed two quick hits, Jenks had been getting tagged all April blowing two save chances and losing two others.

He is the poster board goat for what was wrong with Boston the first month of the season. His fastball is no longer fast, and what’s worse is that he knows it which causes him to throw balls nibbling at the plate, and missing, allowing more runners to get on base. I have a feeling that his stay in Boston won’t be for very long. Nothing can be more demoralizing to a team than a pitcher taking the mound when the players behind him know he won't get the batter out.

Brew Crew

The worst road team in the NL is so good at home that they are only 2 1/2 games out of first-place. After a seven-game losing streak in early May, the Milwaukee Brewers have been playing some great ball. The combination of getting pitcher Zack Grienke (4-1) and outfielder Corey Hart (5 HR’s) healthy and playing well has been the main reason for the surge. Milwaukee is currently on a 16-5 run and look to have the makings of a team that could contend with anyone because of their staff. Between Grienke, Yovani Gallardo (7-2) and Shaun Marcum (6-2), this team could go far. While they’d love to have a better bullpen, John Axford and Cameron Loe has been a good tandem to close out games. The Brewers are 28-1 when going into the ninth while leading.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book has Milwaukee 20/1 to win the World Series which shows a great deal of respect for what they’re capable of doing.

Road Warrior

Kevin Correia has been at his best when away from PNC Park this season sporting a 6-1 record with a 2.35 ERA. Amazingly, he’s had a decision in all 11 starts heading into his Wednesday matchup at the Mets going 7-4 overall. His excellence mirrors what the Pittsburgh Pirates have done all season on the road where they have one of the highest payout returns in baseball this season at +939.

Bullpen Change for the Better in KC

The Royals hope to shake things up for the better by naming rookie right-hander Aaron Crow their closer after Joakim Soria pitched himself out of the role. Monday’s blown save was the final nail in the coffin for Soria, once considered one of the baseball’s best closers. That gave the Royals nine blown saves in 18 attempts. It didn’t help Soria’s effort to remain the closer that Monday’s loss was Kansas City’s 13th in their last 16 games.

Jeff Francis got the Royals out of their funk Tuesday with a 7-3 win, his second win in his last three starts. The bats helped him out so there was no need for their new closer to make an appearance. This season Crow has been pretty dominant in a set-up role with a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings.

There could be some value in playing the Royals again just because the prices are still going to reflect their rough two-week stretch. You know coming into any KC wager that they can hit. They’re currently in the top-10 MLB categories of runs scored (8th), batting average (7th), on base percentage (10th) and slugging percentage (10th). Now they have a closer who hasn’t had his confidence shattered and should be able to finish a few games off right out of the gate.

Best in the League?

We saw Seattle's Brandon League go through a nightmarish stretch in the middle of May where he couldn’t close games out. After starting the season perfect with nine straight save conversions, he blew four straight chances taking the loss in each. Since May 18, League has once again been perfect converting his last six chances with not even a glimpse of a team scaring him.

He’s shutting teams down again and makes the Mariners very attractive in almost every game that four of their five starting pitchers take the hill. The exception is Doug Fister, but even that perception may soon change. Seattle has won two of the last three game the big 6’8” right-hander has started.

Tuesday night’s Mariners win was the perfect microcosm of their season thus far. They got great starting pitching from Erik Bedard, but couldn’t get anything going at the plate. However, the great starting pitching kept them within two runs. After some great middle-relief help from their bullpen to maintain the close deficit, Justin Smoak hit a three-run dinger off of Jeremy Guthrie in the bottom of the eighth, his only mistake of the night. Brandon League then took the mound for the ninth, struck out two batters, ball game over.

The Hilton isn’t as impressed by the Mariners as I am. They currently have Seattle 75/1 to win the World Series. It's a real long shot, but the pitching staff does have me intrigued.

Ravens Defense Strategy Wins in Baseball?

Who needs hitting when it’s being shown that a decent rotation and a premium stopper can win lots of games in a row and contend for a division title. Seems like the Giants have shown the rest of the small market teams how it’s done, with Seattle and Oakland both looking very similar to San Francisco’s 2010 model.

Teams don’t have to hit well to control games. It’s like the old Ravens defense that everyone tried emulate, but it was their bad offense that helped set the tempo of the games and allowed their strength to be maximized late in close games. It’s no surprise that both the Giants and Mariners, two of the worst hitting teams, have two of the best records in one-run games. It’s almost like that’s how they want it.

Toughest Teams to Go Yard Against

San Francisco’s pitching staff has been the toughest team to hit a home run off of this season allowing only 28 long balls which shouldn’t surprise many, because after all, they are the World Series Champions who relied on that type of stingy pitching to get their rings. But the next two lowest totals come from the American League where Oakland (30 HRs allowed) and Seattle (33) have a case for being more impressive just because they come from a league with the designated hitter.

Best/Worst Money Teams

If betting every team in baseball all season long, your best earner would be the Cleveland Indians at +1,704. They have scooped up so much AL money this season that only two other teams show a profit, the Mariners (+334) and Blue Jays (+202). The NL has seven teams with a positive cash flow with Florida (+900) and Arizona (+868) leading the way. The worst two teams to consistently bet on this season have been the Twins (-1,629) and Rockies (-1,374), two teams that have gotten my share of cash flushed this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-01-2011, 07:22 PM

Your Evening Best Bets :

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -153 500
Detroit - Over 8 500

Cleveland - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -117 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET San Diego +178 500
Atlanta - Over 7 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +100 500
NY Mets - Under 7 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee -102 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

Florida - 7:40 PM ET Florida +146 500
Arizona - Under 9 500

San Francisco - 8:15 PM ET San Francisco -115 500
St. Louis - Over 7 500

Colorado - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers +104 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

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The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

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