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UFC 130: Jackson vs. Hamill


QUINTON “RAMPAGE” JACKSON (32-8-0)
vs. MATT HAMILL (7-3-0)
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC 130
Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) Bout
Saturday, May 28, 9:00 p.m. EDT
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Line: JACKSON -275, HAMILL +215

It will be Rampage versus the Hammer on a Saturday night in Vegas. In a city that likes to see a good show, Quinton Jackson and Matt Hamill will come to town hoping to deliver a performance that will live up to the phrase “main event” as the headlining battle of UFC 130. If the outcome can match the hype, the biggest winner of the night could be millions of UFC fans outside the octagon.

Jackson versus Hamill was originally supposed to be Jackson versus Thiago Silva, but a series of problems Silva had regarding inconsistencies with his post-fight drug test following UFC 125 got him into hot water. Weary of the circumstances, the UFC decided not to wait for the findings of the Nevada State Athletic Commission, but rather opted to pull Silva from the match with Jackson, and replaced him with Hamill. Because of the Silva situation, and Jackson’s occasional penchant for falling out of shape in between bouts, some fans have been a little cool to buy into the hype of this matchup. Nonetheless, a victory on Memorial Day weekend means that Jackson may finally position himself to get that elusive title fight he has dreamed of since being upset by Forrest Griffin in July 2008, when he lost his UFC light heavyweight championship. In terms of what his preparation for battling Hamill is all about, Jackson sees the fight as much more about what he does, as opposed to what his opponent is all about. "I don't really watch his fights that much, so I don't know a whole lot about him," Jackson told MMA Fight Corner presented by FiveKnuckles.com "I just know he's a wrestler so I'm pretty sure he's gonna try to take me down. I'm just training in all different areas to make sure I finish the fight."

Jackson (-275) will enter the fight as a substantial favorite over Hamill (+215) despite the fact that Hamill brings a five-fight win streak to the showdown, while Jackson has won three of his past four bouts. That loss came almost a year to the day of UFC 130, last May 29, to Rashad Evans, in what was a UFC light heavyweight eliminator bout. Since then, Jackson has fought just once, defeating Lyoto Machida last November in Auburn Hills, MI in a split decision. It was a split decision that a number of observers felt was split in the wrong direction.

Like Rocky versus Apollo Creed, Hamill is playing the underdog role to the hilt, relishing his role as the longshot fill-in taking on the much more hyped Jackson. "Everyone knows his gameplan. He doesn't change. He loves to strike," Hamill said about Jackson's style. "I got my mind open and I'm going to go out there and fight real smart and I'm going to avoid his knockout power."

Jackson isn’t the only fighter entering the cage Saturday night who’s positioned himself into title fight status. With impressive victories over the likes of Keith Jardine, Mark Munoz, and most recently, Tito Ortiz last October in Anaheim, Hamill has now moved himself into the discussion for a title bout opportunity with a win this weekend. It is that carrot at the end of the stick for Hamill that could bring him into this fight just as hungry for a victory as his heavily-favored opponent. "He's the one so close to being a contender. So I feel like I want to be ready to be the contender," Hamill said.

In a matchup of a top brawler (Jackson) versus an all-time wrestling talent (Hamill), I am sensing an upset in the main event. HAMILL will match Jackson’s preparation and intensity level and will take home a career-defining victory on Saturday night.

[StarDust Bum]

UFC 130: Mir vs. Nelson


FRANK MIR (12-6-0) vs. ROY NELSON (15-5-0)
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC 130
Heavyweight (265 lbs) Bout
Saturday, May 28, 9:00 p.m. EDT
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Line: MIR -130, NELSON Even

When 34-year-old heavyweight Roy Nelson, loser of three of his past five bouts, enters the ring Saturday night to square off against 32-year-old fellow heavyweight Frank Mir, who has gone down to defeat in two of his past four outings, there may not be any loud blaring proclamations via the sound system touting the meaning of this match. But rest assured, the smell of desperation will be in the air, and nowhere will it be more prevalent than inside the octagon.

Nelson’s last battle came against Junior dos Santos in August of last year at UFC 117. Though Nelson became the first man to take dos Santos to a decision, he also received a high level of punishment from his opponent. Nelson was reflective and honest with himself following the loss, seeing it as a turning point in terms of how he would approach future fights. “I think that’s the only fight I had where I felt the better man actually won. That’s the only time I had that feeling.” Nelson told sherdog.com, adding “When you go into a fight, you’ve got to throw more punches than the other guy, and Junior is probably the guy who hit me the hardest in my whole career. That forced me to become a better fighter.”

Training partner Jose Salgado feels that dos Santos awakened Nelson to the need to adjust his preparation and style. He believes that fans will see an improved, better-conditioned athlete stepping into the ring versus Mir. “In all honesty, I feel this is the best shape he’s ever been in,” Salgado observes. “The dos Santos fight may be the catalyst that moves him to the next level. It truly opened his eyes. I’m not saying he never worked hard to begin with, but he’s got the extra oomph to take him to the next level.”

Mir will enter Saturday’s bout coming off of a victory over Mirko Filipovic last September. Filipovic was a late add, as he had to fill in for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who pulled out due to a knee injury. That victory by Mir followed a first round KO loss to Shane Carwin in March 2010. Nelson and Mir have a history that goes back several years. Both men met on the Jui-Jitsu circuit over a decade ago. They are both born and bred in Las Vegas, where their sport has cultivated its fan base and exposure, paralleling the rise of these two heavyweight mainstays.

Now Mir is set to face Nelson in a fight whose outcome does not guarantee to do much for his career. Mir was hoping for a rematch with Carwin, and is not exactly doing cartwheels at the prospect of facing Nelson. “Roy is coming off a loss and the way our sport works I want to fight a fight where I have a lot to gain,” said Mir during a recent interview with MMA 30. “A win for either of us doesn’t move us towards a title shot. I was looking for a fight with Carwin, he has only lost in a title fight.”

If you’re thinking that Mir sees a fight against Nelson as a wee bit beneath him, you may not be that far off. The bigger issue is will Mir be fully motivated to prepare and battle Nelson in this contest?

While Mir (-130) enters the bout as the favorite over Nelson (even), an improved conditioning program, sparked by a loss that was part valiant defeat, part humbling wake-up call, could end up playing a major motivating role for Nelson. In a battle that could very well be settled in the middle of the ring, toe to toe, the pick here is for NELSON to squeeze out an upset win.

[StarDust Bum]

UFC 130: Alves vs. Story


THIAGO ALVES (15-5-0) vs. RICK STORY (12-3-0)
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC 130
Welterweight (170 lbs) Bout
Saturday, May 28, 9:00 p.m. EDT
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Line: ALVES -200, STORY +160

UFC welterweights Thiago Alves and Rick Story will clash on the UFC 130 Main Card, this Saturday, May 28 at the MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Alves (27 years old) is a perennial contender. He's been considered a top fighter since beating Karo Parisyan and Matt Hughes in consecutive fights in 2008. He has since unsuccessfully challenged Georges St. Pierre for the UFC title, and lost to Jon Fitch, the man universally considered the No. 2 welterweight in the world. Out of the ring, Alves has had his share of issues. While he was preparing for the fight with Fitch, a potentially life-threatening brain blood vessel anomaly postponed the bout four times. He's also struggled with making weight, blowing the weigh-ins at UFC 85 and 117. He had no trouble making weight in his last fight against John Howard at UFC 124. He didn't struggle much with Howard either, winning a unanimous decision.

After losing his UFC debut in 2009, Ricky Story reeled off five straight UFC wins. Wins included defeating fan-favorite Dustin Hazelett at UFC 117 and then taking a unanimous decision over previously-undefeated Johny Hendricks. Experts consider that the most impressive mark on his resume thus far. Alves will present another big test for Story and a win here will make his name even more recognizable in the UFC hierarchy.

This bout should come down two things: Story's ability to hang with Alves on the feet and Story's ability to put Alves on his back and keep him there. If Story can accomplish both of these things, I like his chances to pull off the upset. That sounds obvious, but in UFC the obvious it what decides these matches. If Story cannot do those things, it will be a long night for him.

Saying that, I just don’t think Story is at Alves’ level just yet. He is getting there and is definitely a name to remember, but he might need another fight or two to get to the next plateau. I’m taking ALVES at -200.

[StarDust Bum]

UFC 130: Santiago vs. Stann


JORGE SANTIAGO (23-8-0) vs. BRIAN STANN (10-3-0)
Mixed Martial Arts - UFC 130
Middleweight (185 lbs) Bout
Saturday, May 28, 9:00 p.m. EDT
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Line: STANN -130, SANTIAGO Even

UFC middleweights Jorge Santiago and Brian Stann will clash as part of the UFC 130 Main Card, this Saturday, May 28 at the MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Santiago has been very successful over the past four years, going 11-1 and picking up tournament wins in Strikeforce and Sengoku. He was also the reigning Sengoku middleweight champion when the company closed its doors earlier this year. This is not Santiago’s first venture into the UFC, as back in 2006 Santiago made his debut at Ultimate Fight Night 5, finishing Justin Levens in just over two minutes by knockout. At Ultimate Fight Night 6, Santiago was knocked out by UFC middleweight Chris Leben early in the second round after stunning Leben in the first, and taking the round on the scorecards. Next up was Alan Belcher at UFC Fight Night 7, and the story line was similar to the Belcher fight. Santiago took an early round, but was eventually knocked out by a head kick midway through the third. With a 1-2 UFC record, he was released from the company.

Santiago gets a chance for instant credibility when he faces up-and-comer Brian Stann. Stann, the former U.S. Marine Captain whose military actions have been noted by George W. Bush, is coming off of a huge KO victory over Leben. While many big names were being thrown around as possible next opponents for Stann (one of which was Wanderlei Silva), UFC matchmaker Joe Silva and UFC President Dana White chose an unlikely opponent to face Stann at UFC 130. Some fans and fighters feel that with this being Santiago’s first fight in the UFC in almost five years, Stann should have been given the opportunity to face a better-known opponent from the UFC’s crème de la crème middleweight fighters.

With Santiago, being the more experienced fighter and finishing all but one of his last 12 fights, and Stann, being hungry and coming off of a KO win, this bout has Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night written all over it; it could even be a potential Submission of the Night candidate. I’m taking SANTIAGO at Even money to pull off the upset and make a name for himself.