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**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2011, 10:42 PM

MLB Betting Preview: Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

The Red Sox won a pair of 1-run games against the Tigers last week in Boston.
Both the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers are on the road to redemption after terrible starts to their season. At just a combined six games over .500 between them, neither one has to be considered thrilled with where they are sitting.

The two cross paths in MLB betting action on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park, with the first pitch scheduled to be thrown at 10:05 a.m. (PT)

NESN and Fox Sports Detroit are both going to have local pickups of this game, while the MLB Network will also have the live broadcast for those not in the Massachusetts and Michigan markets.

Alfredo Aceves is the man that is going to be starting off this series for manager Terry Francona on the bump. The 29-year-old righty has been a relief pitcher for virtually his entire career, but due to the injuries to John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Francona really doesn't have all that many options left available to him.

Aceves got the nod against the Chicago Cubs on May 21 and he pitched relatively well, lasting five innings and surrendering three hits, two walks and one run. He got a no-decision on the day, though the Red Sox were beaten 9-3.

For the season, Aceves is 1-0 with three holds, a 2.42 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has only thrown one inning in his career against the Tigers, and he allowed a solo home run in that inning.

If you plan to bet on baseball with the Tigers though, the man that you want to bet on this year is clearly Max Scherzer whttp://www.donbest.com/mlb/team-list/?page=mlb/mlbpitcher&pitcherid=SCHERZER+MAX&season=2011 ho is scheduled to be on the hill Thursday. Scherzer is 6-1 on the season, but more importantly, he has led MLB betting fans to a 7-3 mark that's good for 3.6 units in profit.

Scherzer's 6-1 record brings him back up to a .500 pitcher for his career at 27-27. His ERA this year of 2.98 and WHIP of 1.37 are rock solid numbers to say the least. He has also only walked one batter in his last two starts, though Detroit did lose both of those games to the Toronto Blue Jays and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Boston has knocked Scherzer around quite a bit in his two career outings against it. The righty is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in 11 1/3 career innings of work against Red Sox Nation.

It was only last week that these two teams met up for a two-game miniseries at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won both games, though the Tigers covered both run lines.

Boston is 43-19 in the last 62 meetings overall against the men from Motown, but the Tigers are going to be happy to be playing at Comerica Park, where they are 7-1 in their last eight games entering play on Wednesday.

Mother Nature could have alternative plans for this MLB wagering war considering the fact that severe thunderstorms are ravaging the entire Upper Midwest. The forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of rain with the possibility of severe weather hitting the area in the afternoon.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2011, 10:43 PM

MLB Odds: Bullpens continue to impact betting trends

San Diego relievers are at the top of the MLB charts with a 2.38 ERA.
It may be difficult to get a consensus on which team has the best bullpen in the major leagues, but it's unanimous when it comes to how much relief pitching impacts the outcome of a game.

Statistically, the impact is about one-third. Through the first seven full weeks of the 2011 season, MLB teams were averaging three innings per game out of their bullpens.

Broken down by leagues, NL relievers are working ever so slightly more than their AL counterparts and doing a better job. National League bullpens are checking in currently with a 3.33 ERA while AL 'pens are a little more than two-thirds of a run higher than that at 4.09.

It might be easy to think the bulk of that extra scoring on AL relievers is due to the Junior Circuit playing with the designated hitter. But then, how does one explain AL starting pitchers having a 3.76 ERA compared to NL starters at 4.02?

Attempting to correlate good/bad ERA figures with betting totals can be equaling puzzling.

San Diego owns the top relief corps in terms of ERA, the Padres' 2.38 mark well in front of Atlanta's 2.58 that places second. Yet neither team is leaning one way or the other in the totals column, the Pads 23-23-3 'over/under' with the Braves a level 23-23-4.

Padres starters own a 4.02 ERA to keep 'unders' down a bit. San Diego relievers are also being used a little more than any other bullpen, just above 166 innings in 49 games to account for about 37 percent of the innings pitched.

The Tigers own the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.69 and are among the better 'over' wagers with a 26-18-4 record to the high side. Detroit's offense, 11th-best in the majors at 4.38 runs per game, is also helping push final scores above the total.

Conspiring against more 'overs' cashing are the Tigers' starting pitchers, their 3.52 group ERA in the top 10 in baseball.

Minnesota's bullpen is 29th in the big leagues with a 5.41 ERA and their starters aren't much better with a 4.63 ERA ranking 26th. Still, the Twins are 25-21-1 'under' thanks in large part to an offense that is 27th (3.49 RPG).

One team that is hopping game totals with generally lousy all-around pitching and a middling offense is Houston. Astros starting pitchers are 27th (4.68 ERA) and their relievers are 25th (4.51) while the batting lineup is 18th with 4.00 RPG. Houston is 27-22 'over' to date.

Here's a quick glance at all 30 MLB clubs, their 'over/under' records and their staff ERA broken down by starters and relievers.

TEAM O/U/P ST-ERA REL-ERA
Arizona 21-25-2 4.35 3.32
Atlanta 23-23-4 3.22 2.58
Baltimore 22-23-1 4.10 5.27
Boston 21-23-4 3.92 4.54
Chi Cubs 27-19-0 5.42 3.22
Chi White Sox 22-25-3 3.85 4.21
Cincinnati 29-18-2 4.96 3.51
Cleveland 25-19-2 3.62 2.87
Colorado 26-20-1 4.00 3.50
Detroit 26-18-4 3.52 5.69
Florida 22-20-4 3.78 2.63
Houston 27-22-0 4.68 4.51
Kansas City 23-23-1 4.69 3.95
LA Angels 20-26-4 3.29 3.63
LA Dodgers 26-21-3 3.78 4.88
Milwaukee 22-25-2 3.97 3.41
Minnesota 21-25-1 4.63 5.41
NY Mets 27-18-2 4.45 3.31
NY Yankees 22-22-3 3.97 3.06
Oakland 21-24-4 2.59 3.52
Philadelphia 21-24-3 3.16 2.85
Pittsburgh 18-26-3 3.93 3.08
San Diego 23-23-3 4.02 2.38
San Francisco 19-25-3 3.18 3.25
Seattle 23-22-1 3.20 4.06
St. Louis 19-27-3 3.32 3.50
Tampa Bay 19-27-3 3.60 3.59
Texas 24-24-1 3.42 4.28
Toronto 24-22-2 4.24 3.17
Washington 27-20-1 4.18 3.38

NOTE: All stats listed through Tuesday, May 24

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2011, 10:47 PM

Thursday's Afternoon Tips

May 25, 2011

It’s a relatively quiet day on Thursday in Major League Baseball with just eight games on the board. And it’s loaded up on business man specials with six of the tilts starting no later than when some kids will be getting out of school. Let’s take a look at a few of those matchups.

Red Sox at Tigers – 1:05 p.m. EDT

The Red Sox and the Tigers both started the season by tripping all over themselves. Now they sit as two of the hotter teams in the big leagues. Boston has pulled itself back into the Top 3 of the American League East, while Detroit has put itself back within earshot of the Tribe in the AL Central.

Boston opens up this four-game series up with Alfredo Aceves (1-0, 2.42) on the mound. He is making his second straight start for the Red Sox in place of the oft-injured Daisuke Matsuzaka. The former Yankee tossed five innings, allowing one run earned run on three hits last Saturday against the Cubbies. Even though the BoSox wound up losing 9-3 in that game, there was reason to be positive about his addition to the rotation. It also doesn’t hurt that the opposition is hitting just .185 against him in 12 appearances.

The Tigers are looking towards Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.98) to get the win in this showdown, which isn’t much of a shocker. Scherzer is off to the best start of his career, but Detroit has lost his last two outings. However, he was not the reason for the losses (12.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K); it was the bats that went silent (4 runs scored) and spotty bullpen work (6 runs allowed). The former Diamondback hasn’t had a great record against the Red Sox either, evidenced by an 0-1 record in two starts with a 5.56 earned run average.

Detroit has a good shot at drawing first blood in this spot. The Tigers have won five of their seven home games this year against AL East squads. Boston tends to claw out of a hole this year, having gone 2-6 the first game of a road series in 2011.

Marlins at Giants – 3:45 p.m. EDT

The Marlins are feeling awfully comfortable after winning the series opener against San Francisco. The downside for Florida is they’ll have played nine games in as many days on this road trip through the left coast. The Giants are just hoping to hold their spot atop the National League West.

Florida closes up this series with Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 3.02) getting the nod. The Fish have enjoyed playing with him on the mound, winning his last three starts. Sanchez is making the job easier for his team on all fronts by giving up just three earned runs in those outings, while lasting at least seven innings each time. He also enjoys a 1-0 record with a 1.20 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. However, the Marlins have gone 1-3 in his four road starts this season.

The Giants will look to Ryan Vogelsong (3-0, 1.93) to keep up the good work on Thursday afternoon. San Fran has become an automatic winner when Vogelsong starts, going on a 5-0 run when he’s on the mound. He has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts, lasting at least six innings each time. This is Vogelsong’s first start against the Marlins, but he has fared quite well against them in the past. He is 0-1 with an ERA of 2.89 in four career appearances versus Florida.

The Marlins have been a great team to back when posted as road underdogs against the NL West. Look no further than their 6-1 record in their last seven in this role. The ‘under’ is 4-2-1 during that run as well. However, the Giants are 11-4 as home favorites in their last 15 series finales with the ‘over’ going 10-5.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2011, 10:55 PM

Bettin' on Bullpens

May 25, 2011

Bullpens can be very frustrating to baseball backers as a great starting pitching effort and a game going according to plan can change quickly in the late innings. A couple of teams have turned early season struggles into great recent relief pitching results while a few others are really struggling to close out games in part due to recent injuries. Here is a snapshot of bullpens to take note of based on the recent results with two success stories and two teams that have failed in the late innings.

Bullpen Success

Houston Astros: The Astros have the worst record in the National League at 18-30 and the bullpen was a big source of trouble early in the season. Houston has eleven blown save opportunities and just seven converted saves and Houston relievers have taken ten losses on the season. The season ERA for the Houston bullpen is 4.65 but that figure can be thrown out for the moment as the Astros are starting to see some excellent late inning results. Brandon Lyon was expected to be the closer this season for Houston but he struggled from the get-go, blowing a lead on opening day against the Phillies. Lyon has just four saves in eight opportunities and his season ERA is 7.15. Lyon allowed three runs without getting an out in his last appearance on May 4 and since has gone on the disabled list. Houston’s relief pitching fortunes have changed for the better since.

In the last 10 games Houston has a bullpen ERA of just 2.05 and current closer Mark Melancon has looked sharp with a 1.86 ERA for the month with just two runs allowed in ten May appearances. Wilton Lopez has also provided excellent recent results featuring a 0.84 ERA in his last ten appearances. After some early season struggles Enerio Del Rosario has also emerged as a quality option in the pen including eight consecutive scoreless appearances. The Astros will need a greater track record before claiming to be a high quality bullpen and there is not a proven left-handed option at this point but the results have been much better in recent weeks. With a starting staff that is getting decent results and an offense that is starting to get a lot of hits Houston could be a team that makes a rise in the next few weeks in part to a shored up bullpen.

Arizona Diamondbacks: With a 5.74 bullpen ERA in 2010 Arizona had by far the worst relief pitching in baseball last season. Arizona relievers compiled a 16-32 record last season with 24 blown save opportunities while allowing opponents to hit .282. There was not a great deal of optimism for the unit entering 2011 with the acquisition of J.J. Putz to be the closer only making minor waves. Putz was an excellent closer for the Mariners in 2006 and 2007 but was less sharp in 2008. He was signed by the Mets but then New York also signed Francisco Rodriguez, relegating Putz to a secondary set-up role. He had a similar role with the White Sox last year with effective numbers. Arizona has given him the chance to be the ninth-inning go-to-guy again and he has flourished so far with a 1.89 ERA and going 12 for 12 in save situations. Putz has picked up saves in seven of the last nine games as an Arizona win streak has the Diamondbacks moving up in the standings.

There have been other key performers in the bullpen that have allowed Arizona to have a respectable record even with marginal starting pitching this season. Former Orioles starter David Hernandez has been very reliable in a middle relief and set-up role and Esmerling Vasquez has provided quality innings as well. Sam Demel did not show great promise as a rookie last season but he has been a great situational pitcher this season against tough right-handed hitters, featuring a 1.72 ERA for the season although he has recently hit the DL. The real find for the Diamondbacks has been 25-year old rookie Joe Paterson, a rule 5 selection taken from the Giants, as the left-handed specialist has a 0.87 ERA, allowing just one run and six hits in 20 games. Aaron Heilman who is likely the most recognizable name in the Arizona bullpen has terrible numbers with a 6.59 ERA but he has three wins and has allowed just one earned run in his last eight appearances and he should be asset the rest of the way. Overall Arizona has a bullpen ERA of 2.96 for the season, sixth best in baseball as well as only four blown saves.

Bullpen Failure

Minnesota Twins: The Twins have had an assortment of problems this season and injuries have taken a serious toll on the 2010 AL Central champions. The offense is not producing like it needs to but the lineup has been without at least three starters in almost every game this season due to injuries. The starting pitching staff has not been as strong as hoped for with Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano taking big steps back from last season so far but overall the starting pitching has been capable with Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Brian Duensing pitching reasonably well with only a few exceptions.

The main problem for Minnesota lies in the late innings where the bullpen has a 5.41 season ERA and a 3-10 record in games decided by relievers. Joe Nathan seemed to have been rushed back from his major arm surgery and the results so far have been problematic with Nathan featuring a 7.63 ERA and appearing to lose all of the confident swagger he once had. Minnesota has to be regretting the trade for Matt Capps last season as Capps has been terrible with a 5.09 ERA and four blown saves and the key piece in the deal, catching prospect Wilson Ramos is providing some punch in the Nationals lineup while the Twins have had a black hole of offensive production at the catcher spot with Joe Mauer on the DL. The two relievers on the staff with some experience and successful results, Glen Perkins and Jose Mijares, have both recently hit the DL as well leaving a group of unproven AAA players and recently signed players to try to fill the late innings.

Minnesota has lost each of the last four games in the bullpen with three late leads blown to waste what has been somewhat improved offensive production. At 15-31 the Twins have the worst record and worst run differential in baseball and the season may be a lost cause with the strain the pitching staff is facing. Right now backing the Twins carries a major risk as even a promising starting effort is going to face tense moments in the late innings with unproven and unreliable pitchers.

Los Angeles Dodgers: In most recent seasons it has been almost a given that the Dodgers would be among the league leaders in bullpen ERA. Los Angeles has a pitching friendly ballpark and in recent years several quality relievers have suited up in Dodger blue. Last season the unit slipped a bit with an average 4.03 ERA but with 41 saves and opponents hitting just .244 against Los Angeles relievers it looked like the bullpen could again be a strong point this season. It has not been the case as Los Angeles owns a 4.99 bullpen ERA on the year, the worst mark in the National League.

The Dodgers have only blown three save opportunities but the Dodgers relievers have picked up just five wins and losing close games has been a big reason why Los Angeles continues to slide in the NL West standings. All the big names in the Los Angeles bullpen are currently on the DL which has made the month of May very challenging. Jonathan Broxton has struggled this season with a 5.68 ERA but he had closed out seven of eight save opportunities but he hit the DL in early May with an elbow issue. Vicente Padilla emerged as the new closing option and was quickly three for three but he has also joined the DL with arm discomfort. Blake Hawksworth has been a reliable reliever for the Cardinals the past two seasons and he was thought to be a nice pick-up before a strained groin sidelined him to the DL.

The big loss has been Hong-Chih Kuo however as he has been one of the most dominant set-up relievers in baseball the last three seasons, including a season ERA of 1.20 last season in 56 appearances. Kuo struggled in his early 2011 appearances and was placed on the DL with an anxiety disorder, leaving a very uncertain timetable for his return. Veterans Matt Guerrier and Mike MacDougal have done their part but there are not many reliable options in the bullpen for the Dodgers right now and it has shown with a 7-14 record so far in May. The starting pitching has not been as strong as expected and given that the offense has cooled off considerably, the Dodgers could be in trouble in the coming weeks in the late innings.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-25-2011, 11:01 PM

Thursday, May 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 12:35 PM ET Baltimore -137 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Boston +106 500
Detroit - Over 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:05 PM ET Philadelphia -153 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

NY Mets - 2:20 PM ET NY Mets +137 500
Chi. Cubs -

Oakland - 3:35 PM ET LA Angels +101 500
LA Angels - Over 7 500

Florida - 3:45 PM ET San Francisco -105 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -133 500
Toronto - Over 8 500

Arizona - 8:40 PM ET Arizona +147 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

**Dat Boi E** · 05-26-2011, 06:06 PM

good luck tonight, bud!

**StarDust Bum** · 05-26-2011, 06:08 PM

Red-hot D-backs try to beat Rockies for 3rd straight time

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (25-24)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (24-24)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Line: Colorado -155, Arizona +145, Total: 9.5

Arizona is the hottest team in baseball, and it can keep it that way with another win over Colorado on Thursday night.

Behind a second straight pitching gem in Coors Field—this one from Ian Kennedy—the Diamondbacks won for the eighth time in their past nine games on Wednesday night. They’ve held the Rockies to three runs over the past two games and leapfrogged them for second place in the NL West.

Arizona will have Micah Owings (0-0, 5.06 ERA) on the mound. After a promising rookie year in 2007, Owings fell apart over the past three seasons and opened 2011 in Triple-A Reno. After a middling performance in the minors, he was called up to replace the underperforming Armando Galarraga in the rotation. Making his first start since 2009 on Saturday, he gave up four runs (three earned) and seven hits, including two home runs, in 5.1 innings against a horrendous Twins lineup, which did not have a DH in a National League park.

One advantage the D-backs do have with Owings on the mound is more offense. They looked into making Owings a two-way player this spring, and he currently has a career .290 average and whopping .532 slugging percentage (not only tops all time among pitchers, but 53rd all-time among players at any position with 100 career plate appearances).

The Rockies, losers of five of their past six games, will have righty Clayton Mortensen (1-1, 2.17 ERA) on the mound. The 26-year-old has shuffled between the bullpen and rotation in 2011. In three starts, he’s a respectable 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA, but he’s also allowed two unearned runs and walked nine in 18.2 innings. In his only career start at Coors Field, May 16 against the Giants, he allowed four runs and seven hits, including two home runs, in six innings.

Mortensen is a slightly better bet than Owings, but not to the extent that the money lines would suggest. And when you factor in how well the D-backs—and how poorly the Rockies—are playing right now, underdog Arizona is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that shows, when the Rockies start losing, they usually keep losing:

COLORADO is 6-18 (25.0%, -20.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-26-2011, 06:10 PM

Blue Jays host White Sox in opener of 4-game set

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (23-28)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (24-25)

First Pitch: Thursday, 7:07 p.m. EDT
Line: Toronto -135, Chicago +125, Total: 8

After losing their first series since May 3-4, the White Sox travel to the Rogers Centre for the first of four games against the Blue Jays. After winning Monday’s opener, Toronto lost the final two games of their just-completed series at Yankee Stadium.

Despite Wednesday's 7-3 road loss to the Yankees, the White Sox are 12-6 since starting the season 11-22. They will send Philip Humber (3-3, 3.10 ERA) to the mound Thursday. Humber has been a revelation for the Sox who put him in the rotation after his first two outings came out of the bullpen. Humber has held batters to a .191 BA this season, and has a 0.89 WHIP in his eight starts. Humber has never started against the Blue Jays, allowing four runs and eight hits in 2.1 innings over two appearances. Humber is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his past three road starts.

Leading the majors again this season with 19 HR, Toronto slugger Jose Bautista will face an opponent that he has struggled against. Last season, Chicago was the only AL team that Bautista (who led the majors with 54 HR) failed to go deep against. Bautista went 5-for-27 (.185) with 10 walks in 2010 versus the White Sox. The slugger is mired in a 6-for-27 (.222) slump over his past eight games. Teammate Brandon Morrow (2-2, 5.06 ERA), who is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in two career starts versus the White Sox, will get the start for Toronto. The right-hander did not receive a decision after allowing four runs and nine hits over six-plus innings in a 7-5 victory over Houston on Saturday. His numbers have been pretty poor lately (7.54 ERA in past three starts), but he leads the AL in strikeout rate (12.09 K/9 innings) among all pitchers with at least 20 innings this year. Morrow has fanned 43 batters in 32 innings.

The Jays have had the White Sox number the last three seasons, winning 18 of their past 23 meetings. However, Humber has been really effective this season at holding the opposition down, and with Bautista currently struggling, I don’t like the Jays chances to score many runs. I’m taking Chicago to win.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also lean towards the White Sox:

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. (71-47 since 1997.) (60.2%, +28.5 units. Rating = 2*).

CHI WHITE SOX are 21-7 (75.0%, +15.5 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 4.8, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*).

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