The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Afternoon Tips

May 24, 2011


The Wednesday afternoon baseball card is loaded with eight games to wager on, including three solid matchups on the American League side. The Rays and Tigers conclude their series at Comerica Park, while the Blue Jays try to knock off the Yankees once again. We'll start in northern Ohio with the AL Central leaders going for another series victory over Boston.

Red Sox at Indians - 12:05 PM EST

The biggest surprise in baseball continues to stun fans and gamblers as the Indians close out their three-game series with the Red Sox. Cleveland claimed the first four meetings this season, but Boston bounced back with Tuesday's 4-2 triumph. The Red Sox try to get out of town with a win prior to a four-game series starting Thursday afternoon in Detroit.

Jon Lester (6-1, 3.68 ERA) has been struggling recently for the Sox by allowing 14 earned runs in his last three starts after giving up just seven earned runs in his previous six outings. The southpaw yielded a season-high 12 hits and five runs in his last trip to the mound against the Cubs, but still managed a victory as Boston rolled Chicago, 15-5. Lester is winless in his last three starts against the Indians since 2009, including a 1-0 loss at Cleveland on February 7 as a $1.75 favorite.

The Tribe counters with right-hander Mitch Talbot (1-0, 1.46 ERA), who makes his first start since April 11. In that outing, Talbot shut down the Angels by tossing eight innings of scoreless baseball in a 4-0 victory. Unfortunately, the 27-year old has missed the last six weeks with an elbow strain, but Talbot will be a regular back in the rotation. In his first start of the season, Talbot lasted 4.1 innings in an 8-4 win over the Red Sox as a $1.50 home 'dog, despite throwing 102 pitches in a no-decision.

Rays at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay looks to avoid the sweep as the Rays wrap up their road trip in the Motor City against the Tigers. Joe Maddon's team dropped five of the first seven games of this swing, including Tuesday's 7-6 defeat as road underdogs. The Rays attempt to get the offense going after scoring three runs or less in eight of the last 12 games.

Brad Penny (4-4, 4.45 ERA) has pitched splendid at home with a 3-1 record at Comerica Park, including three scoreless efforts in his last four starts. The veteran was roughed up in his previous outing at Pittsburgh, allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings as the Tigers fell to the Pirates, 10-1. Penny is 2-2 as a favorite this season, while making his first start against the Rays since 2009 as a member of the Red Sox.

The Rays look to tread water with Andy Sonnanstine (0-1, 4.21 ERA), who has failed to put together a quality start in three outings this season. The right-hander allowed two homers and three earned runs in five innings of his last start at Florida as the Marlins scored two late runs to grab a 5-3 win. Sonnanstine hasn't faced the Tigers since 2008, as the Rays split a pair of his starts with the lone loss coming at Comerica Park.

Blue Jays at Yankees - 1:05 PM EST

Toronto has held its own against New York this season by splitting the first six meetings as the Jays try to rebound after last night's walk-off win by New York. The Jays have won three of four at home to the Tigers on Mother's Day weekend, pulling Toronto within 2 ½ games of first place in the AL East. The Yanks hope to break away from the Rays in the division with veteran Freddy Garcia taking the mound in the series finale.

Pitching at night has been a terror for Garcia (2-4, 3.12 ERA), who has won just one of five starts after the sun goes down. However, the journeyman is 1-0 in two daytime starts, while tossing 12 scoreless innings. Garcia has not received much run support as the Yankees' offense plated just three runs or less in four of his past five outings. The righty is making his second start against the Jays this season as the Yankees lost the first time around, 5-3 as $1.30 'chalk' on April 29.

JoJo Reyes (0-3, 4.07 ERA) looks to snap a 27-start winless streak that dates back to 2008 after the Toronto bullpen blew a 2-0 lead in last Friday's home defeat to Houston. The beleaguered southpaw did all he could against the Astros by tossing seven scoreless innings, only his third quality start of the season. Reyes has never faced the Yankees in his career, while the Jays are 0-4 in his four outings as an underdog of at least $1.50 this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Late Night Action

May 24, 2011


Wednesday’s slate of big league action was loaded up with a lot of early afternoon games to get the visitors the hell out of town. The two late night showdowns, on the other hand, are just quality matchups of long mid-week series. It all starts off in Orange County, where the Halos and A’s do battle. We close up the night’s activities on McCovey Cove between the Fish and Giants.

Athletics at Angels – 10:05 p.m. EDT

If you’re looking for a division race that is truly anyone’s guess, then keep an eye on the American League West. The Rangers and Angels are sitting atop the division, but only 1 ½-games ahead of Seattle and three games in front of Oakland.

The Athletics will need a good effort out of Trevor Cahill (6-1, 1.79) to keep close in the divisional race. Oakland has lost his last two starts, but the blame shouldn’t fall on him for both matches. Cahill has tossed 13 innings in those two outings, giving up just three earned runs. He did get outdueled on May 20 against the Giants, but did throw an error in the May 15 that effectively cost them the win versus the White Sox. Cahill has been stingy in his last three road starts, giving up no more than one earned run each time. Plus, he is 4-1 with a 1.81 earned run average in seven career starts against the Halos.

Los Angeles will hand the starting duties for the game over to Ervin Santana (2-4, 4.18) on Wednesday evening. It sure looks like Santana is finding his groove after tossing a four-hit, complete game shutout in a 9-0 win over Atlanta last Friday night. Adding credence to that idea is that he 12-3 with a 1.99 ERA in 21 appearances against the A’s for his career.

You have to think the Angels are feeling good about their chances in this series since they’re 3-1 at home against AL West foes. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in that stretch as well. Oakland is 4-6 for the year when facing division rivals. And you can be sure to fade the A’s as road ‘dogs since they’re 2-4 this year in that role, with the ‘under’ going 5-1.

Marlins at Giants – 10:15 p.m. EDT

Interleague was good to both of these teams as the Marlins won two of three against Tampa Bay and the Giants swept the A’s. The strong effort for the Fish was important because it keeps them close to the Phillies. Meanwhile, the Giants used their great play to extend their lead in the NL West over Colorado.

Chris Volstad (2-3, 5.73) gets the start for Florida on Wednesday night. Volstad is looking for a little love from his offense this time around. He’s lost two of his last three starts, but it has to do with the fact that the Marlins scored just three runs in those setbacks. Volstad is currently giving the Fish at least five innings per start right now, which helps their bullpen earn their money with a 2.64 ERA. Florida has paid its backers off well when he starts on the road, cashing in as a road pup both times.

San Francisco sends Madison Bumgarner (1-6, 3.71) to hill, who they are hoping is finally getting his act together. The southpaw finally got his first winning decision of the season by pitching 8.2 innings and allowed just one run in a 3-1 outcome over the Dodgers as a $1.10 road pup last Thursday. The Giants also won his last home start in a 3-2 triumph over the Rockies on May 7. One could say that Bumgarner is due to get some wins his way with his recent efforts. He has had five straight quality starts, giving up no more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. Plus, he’s been a part of a lot of low scoring games recently, seeing the ‘under’ go on a 4-1 run in his last five starts.

This could be the perfect spot to cash in on the Marlins as they’ve gone 10-3 in their last 13 games on the road when taking on left-handed pitchers in the NL West. The ‘under’ is 7-4-2 during those contests.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Preview: White Sox at Texas Rangers

At the outset of the season, MLB betting pundits really thought that the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers could be potential playoff foes. As of the start of play on Tuesday, the Rangers have just a half-game lead in the AL West, while the White Sox are five games under .500 and 10 games outside of the AL Central lead.

These two finish up their three game set at the Ballpark in Arlington on Wednesday afternoon at 11:05 a.m. (PT) in a game that can be seen locally on Comcast Sports North in the Windy City or Fox Sports Houston in the Lone Star State.

Marvin Hudson is the man scheduled to be calling balls and strikes in this one, and he has been privy to a ton of road wins of late. In fact, the road team has won four of the last six games that he has called. Three of his last four have been umpped 'under' the 'total' as well.

You'd think that the potential would be there for a low scoring affair on Wednesday, but both Gavin Floyd and CJ Wilson have winning records for 'over' bettors this year at 5-3 and 6-3-1 respectively.

Since his first start of the year at the Kansas City Royals, Floyd has been rock solid for the White Sox on the road. He had won three starts in a row before losing to the Oakland Athletics, but there is no shame whatsoever in his plus $127 mark this year as a visiting starting pitcher.

Floyd is coming off of a great start at US Cellular Field against the Cleveland Indians in which he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings of work to earn his fifth victory of the season. He is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA, and his K:BB ratio is a rock solid 51:15.

In his career against the Rangers though, Floyd has been nothing to write home about. He is 1-2 with a putrid 7.85 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP in four career outings.

Wilson struck out 10 batters in his most recent start against the Philadelphia Phillies in Interleague play, marking the third time this year that he has fanned at least 10 men. He has 60 strikeouts on the season, a K/9 of 7.92. For the season, this southpaw is 4-3 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, and batters are hitting .243 against him, the highest mark that he has posted in three years.

Still, Wilson has done quite well against the White Sox in his career, going 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA, but we have to remember that 10 of his 11 appearances against them came in relief, not as a starter. In fact, this is just the 50th game that Wilson is going to start in his career, 44 of which have come in the last two seasons.

Chicago was blanked in the first game of this series 4-0, giving the Rangers the 2-1 series lead thus far on the campaign. The White Sox have been terrible in MLB betting action in Arlington, going 5-11 in their last 16 visits.

The weather is expected to be hot and windy on Wednesday afternoon, as the forecast calls for temperatures in the low to mid 90s and winds of between 15 and 20 miles per hour out of the southwest (RF corner to LF corner).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Halladay, Phillies battle Cincinnati Reds

The series between Cincinnati and Philadelphia has been dominated by the Phillies and now they will throw their ace on the mound in a nationally televised game on ESPN2 with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT).

Philadelphia opened the four-game set with an impressive 10-3 victory, scoring more than three runs in a contest for just the first time in nine games. The Phillies’ faithful may have many more games like this to look forward to due to the return of second baseman Chase Utley, who missed the first 46 games of the season with a knee injury.

"I don’t know if it was Utley’s presence or not, but somebody did something right," said Phillies manager Charlie Manuel. "So we’ll give him credit, all right?"

The 14 hits Monday were the most since collecting 15 against the Braves on April 9.

The Phillies have absolutely pummeled the Reds at Citizens Bank Park, winning nine straight heading into Tuesday’s meeting, and outscoring them by a 48-25 margin.

Right-hander Roy Halladay (6-3, 2.21) gets the call in the third game of the series and will be looking for his second straight win. He is coming off an impressive 3-2 home win over the Rangers, surrendering just two runs and six hits over eight innings.

Halladay has made just four career starts versus the Reds, registering an even 1-1 mark and 2.84 ERA, including an 0-1 record and 2.12 ERA in two starts last year. He posted a phenomenal 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during last season’s meetings.

The former first-round selection will need to tread carefully around Cincinnati’s dangerous lineup, especially when facing outfielder Jonny Gomes and catcher Ramon Hernandez. Gomes has collected nine hits in 32 at-bats against Halladay, while Hernandez is 13-for-37 (.351) with five RBIs.

Cincinnati had its season-high losing streak extended to six games Monday night and the team is batting just .199 over that span.

Reds starting pitcher Travis Wood (3-3, 5.17) is set to make his 11th start of the season and looks to extend his two-game winning streak. The second-year left-hander is a perfect 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts this month.

Wood has started against the Phillies just once, but it definitely was his best career start. He tossed nine shutout innings and allowed just a single hit at Citizens Bank Park on July 10, 2010, losing his perfect game in the ninth. His reward was a no-decision in a 1-0 loss.

Home plate umpire Brian Gorman may be the Reds’ secret weapon, as road teams are 7-3 in his 10 games behind the dish. Total players will be interested that Gorman’s games have averaged just 7.70 runs, but the ‘over’ has cashed six times.

Weather forecasts suggest partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s in Philadelphia, with 5-10 mph winds out of the southeast (right to left). The ‘under’ is 2-4 at tonight’s venue when the flags are blowing in that direction.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 12:05 PM ET Cleveland +154 500
Cleveland - Under 8 500

Atlanta - 12:35 PM ET Pittsburgh -103 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Toronto - 1:05 PM ET Toronto +158 500
NY Yankees - Over 9 500

Tampa Bay - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +128 500
Detroit - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 1:10 PM ET Seattle -106 500
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

Washington - 1:10 PM ET Washington +159 500
Milwaukee - Over 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 2:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +136 500
Texas - Over 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 2:05 PM ET Houston +117 500
Houston - Under 8 500

St. Louis - 6:35 PM ET St. Louis -119 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Cincinnati - 7:05 PM ET Cincinnati +177 500
Philadelphia - Under 7 500

NY Mets - 8:05 PM ET NY Mets -106 500
Chi. Cubs -

Arizona - 8:40 PM ET Arizona +111 500
Colorado - Under 8.5 500

Oakland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -103 500
LA Angels - Over 6.5 500

Florida - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -141 500
San Francisco - Under 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Struggling Padres look to avoid being swept by Cards


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (30-20)

at SAN DIEGO PADRES (19-30)


First pitch: Wednesday, 6:35 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -115, San Diego +105, Total: 6.5

After a couple of late-inning wins, the Cardinals have a chance to complete a three-game sweep in San Diego Wednesday night.

St. Louis has won four straight, all on the road, though they haven’t been easy. On Sunday, they blew a six-run lead in Kansas City before rallying for a 10-inning win. On Monday, they scored twice in the ninth off Padres closer Heath Bell to pull out a 3-1 win. And in another pitchers’ duel on Tuesday, they tied it at 2-2 in the seventh and went on to win it with a run in the 11th.

The Cards will have struggling former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter on the mound Wednesday. Carpenter, who has won 15-plus games in each of his five full seasons with St. Louis, is 1-4 with a 4.88 ERA through his first 10 starts of 2011, and the Cards have lost eight of those 10 starts. He’s been hit particularly hard in his past five starts, posting a 5.79 ERA while allowing 51 hits in 32.2 innings, and for the second straight year he’s struggling away from home (1-7 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over his past 10 road starts).

But, like most pitchers, Carpenter’s track record against the Padres is strong. He’s 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 career starts. On Opening Day this year, he limited San Diego to two runs on two hits in seven innings, but got a no-decision in a 5-3 loss. And on Wednesday, he’ll be facing a lineup that’s been absolutely atrocious of late. The Padres have dropped six of seven during their current homestand, scoring a total of eight runs along the way. Over that stretch, they’re batting .169 with a .220 on-base percentage and .224 slugging percentage as a team.

San Diego will have their own struggling ace on the mound in Mat Latos. The 23-year-old is still trying to round into form after missing the first two weeks of the season with shoulder problems. He’s 1-6 and hasn’t worked more than 6.1 innings into a game this year. His walk rate has swelled a bit (2.4 BB/9 innings in 2010, 3.6 this year), and he has a 4.60 ERA.

Latos has made two career starts against St. Louis, both on the road, and has been absolutely lit up (15 earned runs and 22 base runners allowed in just 5.1 innings). Last September, he was chased in St. Louis after getting just four outs and giving up eight runs and nine hits.

One bit of good news for Latos: the Cards will likely be without All-Star OF Matt Holliday (quad) again on Wednesday.

While neither pitcher inspires confidence right now, I think Carpenter is closer to turning things around. He’s been throwing strikes, the problem is that opponents are just hitting them. But I don’t think the Padres have the bats to take advantage of that. My pick is St. Louis.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that works in the Cards’ favor:

Play Against - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. (42-20 since 1997, 67.7%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cahill looks to pitch A's to another win over Angels


OAKLAND ATHLETICS (23-26)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (25-25)


First pitch: Wednesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -105, Los Angeles -105 Total: 6.5

Oakland snapped a six-game slide behind an unlikely pitching performance on Tuesday night, and has a chance to make it two in a row over the Angels with its ace going Wednesday in Los Angeles.

Looking at Tuesday’s pitching matchup, a seventh straight loss seemed inevitable for the A’s. But instead, 27-year-old rookie Guillermo Moscoso threw six shutout innings in his first career start, outdueling Cy Young contender Dan Haren. David DeJesus had his second multi-homer game in three weeks (his only four HR of the year) in a 6-1 A’s victory.

Oakland’s chances look better Wednesday night with ace Trevor Cahill on the hill. He’s given up more than two earned runs just once in his 10 starts this season, sitting at 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA. The 23-year-old has an excellent track record against the Angels, with a 4-1 record and 1.81 ERA over seven career starts against them (six of which were Oakland wins). Cahill has thrown 16 straight scoreless innings against the Angels and went 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA against L.A. last season. He also has a knack for getting it done on the road, as the A’s are 12-5 in Cahill’s past 17 starts away from Oakland.

L.A. will counter with the always erratic Ervin Santana. Santana threw a four-hit shutout against the Braves on Friday, lowering his ERA to 4.18. But he’s allowed three or more runs in each of his eight other full starts (excluding a rain-shortened outing in Boston three weeks ago).

Santana has been excellent against Oakland over the course of his career, going 12-3 with a 2.03 ERA over 19 starts, with the Angels going 14-5 in those games. But he had a 4.70 ERA and allowed 42 base runners over 23 innings in four starts against the A’s in 2010. Tuesday night’s offensive hero, DeJesus, wasn’t with Oakland for any of those games, but he’s hit Santana very well over the years: a .429 batting average (12-for-28) and 1.020 OPS against the right-hander.

This one is a toss-up in the money lines, which is about right. But it’s much easier to trust Cahill, even on the road, then to know what to expect from Santana. My pick is Oakland.

This four-star trend from the FoxSheets is another reason to pick against the Angels:

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (L.A. ANGELS) - after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. (56-27 over the last 5 seasons, 67.5%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*).