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**StarDust Bum** · 05-23-2011, 05:53 PM

Utley to return to Phils lineup Monday vs. Reds

CINCINNATI REDS (25-22)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (28-18)

First Pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -165, Cincinnati +155, Total: 7.5

The slumping Phillies offense will get a big boost Monday with the return of 2B Chase Utley as they try to retain their recent dominance over Cincinnati in the opener of a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia has won eight straight home meetings with the Reds, who are currently riding a five-game losing skid. The Phillies have not scored more than three runs in nine straight games, but Utley (.293 BA/.380 OBP/.514 SLG in career), who has missed the entire season with tendinitis in his knee, should help them greatly hitting third in the lineup.

The Reds have been struggling at the plate during the losing streak, batting just .207 with a .323 slugging percentage in the five games. They’ll look to Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 4.11 ERA) to stop the skid when the right-hander takes the mound for Cincinnati on Monday night. Arroyo will try to continue his great success away from home this year, as he is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.92 ERA (19.2 IP, 2 ER) in three road starts this season. However, Arroyo has been hit pretty hard in his past two starts (13 IP, 8 ER) and has only one win in his past seven outings. He has also faltered when facing Philly in his career, going 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight starts versus the Phillies. His lone win came in 2000 when he was with Pittsburgh. Arroyo was decent in his last outing at Philly in the 2010 NLDS (5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K), but he was terrible in his other start at Citizens Bank Park, when on June 2, 2008, he was bombed for five runs on 10 hits (3 HR) in just 4.1 innings.

Cole Hamels (5-2, 2.92 ERA) has had no such trouble with his Monday opponent. Hamels is a perfect 7-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in eight lifetime starts versus Cincinnati. He shut out the Reds in both of his outings last year, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings at home on July 11 and then throwing a complete-game, five-hit shutout with 9 K in the 2010 NLDS in Cincy. The lefty has also been excellent in 2011, with 64 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 61.2 IP of work. In his last outing Wednesday, he held the Rockies to one run and five hits in eight innings, racking up 8 K with just one walk.

The Phillies are 7-2 this year with Hamels on the mound, but their offense has been atrocious over this current nine-game stretch of not scoring more than three runs. They are hitting .172 and slugging a paltry .237 with just nine extra-base hits (five doubles, four homers) in these nine contests. But Utley should be a huge addition, especially considering he has crushed Reds pitching in recent years, batting .333 with 14 HR and 36 RBI in 34 regular-season games against them since 2005.

Including playoffs, the Reds are a dismal 2-13 in the past 15 games in Philadelphia, and were shut out in three of the past four contests at Citizens Bank Park. All signs point to heavily-favored Philadelphia opening the series with the victory.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Phillies to win Monday:

Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games. (41-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CINCINNATI) - good fielding team - averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season, after a loss by 8 runs or more. (68-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +39.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-23-2011, 05:53 PM

Slumping Dodgers could be without Ethier Monday in Houston

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (21-27)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (17-30)

First Pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -130, Houston +120, Total: 7

The beaten and battered Dodgers look to get back on track when they visit Houston Monday night to take on the NL’s worst team in a three-game set. Los Angeles added to its long list of injuries Sunday when Andre Ethier crashed into the outfield wall Sunday and hurt his elbow, back and toe. Catcher Rod Barajas also left Sunday’s 8-3 loss to the White Sox after spraining his right wrist. Although X-rays came back negative for both players, the Dodgers don’t expect either one to suit up Monday.

Los Angeles is just 2-7 in its past nine games, but now it’s Clayton Kershaw’s turn to take the mound on Monday night. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 70 strikeouts (4th in NL) this season. He is also eager to bounce back from his last outing when he allowed four runs and seven hits in just five innings during an 8-5 loss to the Giants. Although Kershaw has been excellent on the road in the past two seasons (8-7, 2.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 19 starts), his two career starts at Minute Maid Park have been dreadful (0-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .350 opponents’ BA). But in his last start against the Astros, on July 18, 2009 at Dodger Stadium, Kershaw tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball, with five strikeouts and just one walk.

Although Houston is coming off a weekend series win at Toronto, the Astros are a dismal 4-13 in their past 17 contests. Bud Norris (2-3, 3.93 ERA) is looking to snap a three-start winless streak himself, when he takes the mound for Houston Monday. Norris has allowed 12 runs in these three outings (5.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but he has been lights-out in five home starts this year, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 33 innings. Opponents are hitting a paltry .186 against Norris at Minute Maid Park. Norris has faced L.A. twice in his brief career, both coming last year. After allowing six runs and seven hits in just 4.1 innings at Dodger Stadium May 18, 2010, he only gave up one earned run in six innings in a 3-2 home win on Sept. 9.

Although it’s difficult to bet against Kershaw, L.A. is just 6-4 with its ace on the hill this year and the Dodgers offense has been terrible lately. In the past 11 games, they have scored a mere 2.55 runs per game, with only 6 HR, while batting .211 with a .311 slugging percentage. With the Dodgers No. 3 hitter, Andre Ethier, not likely to play Monday, combined with Norris pitching so well at Minute Maid Park this year, I’m taking home underdog Houston to open this series with a rare victory.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also back the Astros to win Monday:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (HOUSTON) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. (74-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.2%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (L.A. DODGERS) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a bad team, winning 38% to 46% of their games on the season. (60-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.8%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-23-2011, 05:54 PM

Indians look for 6th straight home win over Boston

BOSTON RED SOX (25-21)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (29-15)

First Pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -120, Cleveland +110, Total: 8.5

The best team in baseball takes on one of the hottest teams in baseball on Monday, when the Indians host the Red Sox in the first of a three-game series at Progressive Field.

Boston is 8-1 in its past nine games and 11-3 in its past 14 contests. The Sox will send Clay Buchholz (4-3, 3.42 ERA) to the mound, who is coming off arguably his best start of the season. Against Detroit on Wednesday, Buchholz allowed four hits while striking out seven in seven innings and exited a scoreless game the Red Sox won 1-0. He is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his four starts this month, and 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 10 May starts since the start of last season. Buchholz hasn't fared as well against the Indians, however, going 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two career starts against them.

The Indians swept a three-game series against Boston earlier this season and have won five straight against them at Cleveland. Justin Masterson (5-2, 2.52 ERA) will start for Cleveland against his former team. Masterson has allowed one run in five of his nine starts -- including Wednesday against the White Sox. The right-hander gave up five hits while striking out eight, but received no help from his offense in a complete-game 1-0 loss at U.S. Cellular Field. He has received one total run of support in his past three starts while he was on the mound. Masterson was brilliant against the Red Sox last season, posting a 0.64 ERA and allowing only six hits in 14 innings in winning both starts.

Adrian Gonzalez has been on fire for Boston, hitting .376 with eight HR and 26 RBI in 20 games this month. The Sox have gotten over their poor start and look ready to dominate the American League like they were predicted to do. I’m taking Boston to win Monday as a slight favorite.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also lean towards the Red Sox:

Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. (75-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +34.5 units. Rating = 3*).

BOSTON is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.2, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-23-2011, 05:54 PM

Hamilton, Cruz to return Monday vs. White Sox

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (22-26)

at TEXAS RANGERS (24-23)

First Pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -155, Chicago +145, Total: 8.5

After scoring just five runs in their three-game series against the Phillies, the Rangers open a three-game home set against the Chicago White Sox on Monday, hoping the potential returns of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz can help a struggling offense.

The White Sox enter Texas on a roll. After starting the season 11-22, Chicago has won two straight and 11 of 15 to move within four games of .500. Winless John Danks (0-6, 4.32 ERA) will start for the White Sox. In his last outing against the Rangers on Tuesday, Danks overcame a shaky start, matching a career-high with six walks while giving up three runs (2 ER) and four hits in 6.1 innings of the 4-3 victory. It was the first time in Danks' nine starts this year that the White Sox won. The Austin native has had some difficulties in his returns to Texas, going 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA and .283 opponents’ BA in four starts in Arlington.

The possible returns of Hamilton and Cruz aren't the only things the Rangers have going for them. Alexi Ogando (4-0, 2.13 ERA) will look to continue his impressive start when he takes the mound. Ogando went seven innings at Kansas City on Wednesday, allowing two runs and four hits in an 11-inning, 5-4 win. Ogando, who has gone 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home, pitched two scoreless innings of relief against the White Sox (22-26) last year, giving up one hit.

The return of Hamilton and Cruz should be enough for the Rangers to continue Danks’ miserable season and give them the victory. Only four teams have more than the Rangers 15 wins at home, and with Ogando pitching so well, I’m taking Texas.

The FoxSheets provide two more highly-rated trends which fade Chicago:

Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO WHITE SOX) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (104-50 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +53.7 units. Rating = 4*).

JOHN DANKS is 0-8 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record). The average score was DANKS 2.6, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-23-2011, 05:55 PM

Weaver, Angels look to hand Oakland its 6th straight loss

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (22-25)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (24-24)

First Pitch: Monday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -195, Oakland +182, Total: 7

The scuffling Athletics travel down the coast to Los Angeles to take on the Angels in the first of a four-game series between division rivals on Monday.

Losers of five straight games, Oakland will send Josh Outman (NR) to the mound to mark his first appearance in the majors since 2009. Replacing the injured Brandon McCarthy, Outman missed the past two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was 4-1 with a 4.78 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Sacramento.

The Angels, who took two of three from the Braves this past weekend, will throw ace Jered Weaver (6-4, 2.45 ERA). Weaver pitched a seven-hit shutout and struck out 10 against Oakland on April 25, improving to 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA on the season. In four starts since, he's 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA while going six innings in each. In Weaver's first six starts, he never pitched less than 6.1 innings. He allowed three runs and seven hits Wednesday in a 3-0 loss at Seattle. Weaver has never lost five straight starts. In 16 starts against Oakland, he is 4-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Oakland’s win on April 27 at L.A. snapped an eight-game losing streak at Angel Stadium. Weaver dominated Oakland earlier this season, but he was a different pitcher then. However, I can’t imagine this poor stretch continuing too much longer. I’m taking heavily-favored Los Angeles behind Weaver to beat an Oakland team which will be throwing a pitcher that hasn’t appeared in a major league game for two years, and has scored just nine runs during its five-game losing skid.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Angels:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (L.A. ANGELS) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (177-81 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +63.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams (L.A. ANGELS) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games. (70-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.4%, +36.8 units. Rating = 3*).

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