Announcement

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:15 AM

Thursday’s betting tips: Time to double-team Dirk?

Who’s hot

NBA: Dallas is 19-6-1 against the spread in its last 26 games overall.

NHL: The home team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between the Lightning and Bruins.

MLB: Cincinnati is 7-2 in Johnny Cueto’s last nine starts against Pittsburgh.

Who’s not

NBA: Just one of the last five meetings between Dallas and Oklahoma City have played under the total.

NHL: The under is 5-16-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 23 home games.

MLB: The Chicago Cubs are 2-7 in their last nine games on fieldturf.

Key stat

78.6 – NBA teams that win the first of a seven-game series go on to win the series 78.6 percent of the time. Dallas took Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-112, covering as a 6-point favorite and bettering their playoff record to 10-0-1 against the spread.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals – Rasmus was held out of the lineup again on Wednesday, even though tests didn’t reveal any structural damage in an abdominal injury that has been bothering him. Rasmus says the team is “playing it safe” with the ailment that has kept him out of the last three games. The center fielder is hitting .305 this season as the club gets set for Thursday’s matinee with Houston.

Game of the day

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5, 200)

Notable quotable

"After eight games of playing solid, structured and intense and doing things down to the 'T' there's bound to be some point you have something that might be a little different. Even if we would have won that game, we wouldn't be happy with the way we played…It seemed like it was going to be a weird game so we want to make sure we are not that weird for the next game." – Tampa Bay Lightning coach Guy Boucher after his team couldn’t extend an eight-game winning streak on Tuesday. Tampa Bay hadn’t allowed more than three goals in a contest during the playoffs before Boston won 6-5 to even the series at one game apiece.

Notes and tips

Dirk Nowitzki went bananas Dallas’ Game 1 win over Oklahoma, hitting 12 of his 15 shots from the floor while nailing an NBA-record 24 straight free throws to finish with 48 points. Still, Thunder coach Scott Brooks elected to guard him with single coverage throughout the game, leaving everyone wondering how OKC will try to slow Nowitzki in Game 2.

Zach Johnson set the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial’s scoring record last season by winning the tournament with a score of 21-under. Part of his success at the tournament is the way he plays at the Horseshoe – the stretch from hole No. 3-No. 5. While most players struggled with the Horseshoe, Johnson shot 1 under with 11 pars and a birdie. Johnson is set at +2500 to win again this year.

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:18 AM

Thursday's six-pack

-- Miami Heat won 85-75 in Chicago, evening that series 1-1. Wade and James got to foul line twice as much in Game 2 as in Game 1. For some ridiculous reason, Game 3 isn't until Sunday.

-- Canucks hammered San Jose 7-3, head to Bay Area up 2-0 and only six wins away from winning their first Stanley Cup.

-- There were five more shutouts Wednesday, four pitched by the home team. Jake Peavy blanked Cleveland in just his second start of the year.

-- Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton blanked the Reds in Cincinnati, the other complete game of the night.

-- Kansas City pitchers threw 101 balls, 122 strikes in its 5-4, 11-inning loss to Texas. Prospect Duffy threw 94 pitches in only four innings.

-- Solid card of baseball Wednesday night, with four extra inning games; 10 of the A's first 43 games went into extra innings. They pitch well but have very little margin for error with their sporadic offense.

********************

Thursday's List of 13: Random stuff on a rainy day.........

13) Minnesota Timberwolves have been in NBA Lottery 14 times, have never gotten top pick; they’ve been unlucky and got a worse pick than expected in eight of those 14 years, none of which excuses the misguided attempt by humor by team president David Kahn Tuesday night, when he suggested the league rigged the lottery. He was clearly kidding, but its also fairly clear that this guy shouldn’t be running a multi-million dollar franchise. He's the kind of guy you'd want in your fantasy league, since he does stupid things but thinks he's being smart.

12) Losing out on the first pick this year isn’t such a big deal, since there is no clearcut #1 choice anyway; plus, Kahn drafted Ricky Rubio in the first round two years ago, and the kid is still playing overseas, so there’s no guarantee Kahn would know what to do with the #1 pick anyway.

11) Cavaliers won big at the lottery; they know have two of the top four picks in the draft. Question becomes; is Kyrie Irving worth such a high pick, after missing most of his only season in college with injuries (never played in an ACC game)? That history is reminiscent of Greg Oden (remember him?)

10) Last time the NBA team with the worst record actually drafted first was 2004, when Orlando grabbed Dwight Howard.

9) NBA TV ratings are up roughly 30% this spring. Too bad the league is going to toss all its momentum away with a labor stoppage this fall.

8) Albert Pujols started at third base Monday for the first time in nine years; he played 89 games there in 2001-02, his first two years in majors.

7) Curtis Granderson already has seven HRs vs lefty pitchers this season, after having a total of 20 in 770 ABs coming into this season.

6) Never realized it is an unwritten rule in baseball that catchers shouldn’t bitch about called strikes when they’re batting, since their primary job is getting strikes called for their pitcher. Its looked upon as overly selfish if a catcher barks at the ump while he is batting.

5) Maryland coach Mark Turgeon got a huge early recruit when he lured Kansas State assistant coach Dalonte Hill back to the Beltway. Hill is the assistant who brought Michael Beasley to K-State; he is very well-connected in the Washington/Baltimore area.

4) Not that surprised to see Mike Krzyzewski made $4.7M at Duke in 2009-10; how much money has he put into their coffers? Was more surprised to see that football coach David Cutcliffe made $1.7M!!!!

Now there’s a guy who riding the gravy train, bigtime. He’s making $1.7M a year and if he ever goes 6-5 just once, they’ll probably throw him a freakin’ parade.

3) Games with Bronx Bombers helped this week, but attendance at Tampa Bay Rays home games was down 29% thru their first 19 home games. Its going to be tough to keep the Rays in the Bay Area unless they get a new stadium, which seems unlikely.

2) Weird note of day; Rachel Uchitel, the old girlfriend of Eldrick Woods who was paid millions to keep her mouth shut, is now working as a private investigator. You can’t make this stuff up.

1) An anonymous NBA executive is quoted in the LA Times as saying that NBA is actually closer to AAU ball than it is to college ball, citing the higher ratio of games to practices. Have to agree with him on that one, whoever he is; he wanted to stay anonymous so the league wouldn’t fine him for the comment. We can safely assume it wasn’t Mr Kahn.

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:19 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Oklahoma City at Dallas

The Mavericks look to build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Dallas is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, MAY 19

Game 507-508: Oklahoma City at Dallas (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 122.780; Dallas 131.896
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 200
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:32 AM

NBA
Write-Up

Thursday, May 19

Oklahoma City played matador defense in Game 1; Dallas shot 53.4% from floor, made 34-36 from line in Game 1, as Terry/Barea came off the bench and lit Thunder up. Nowitzki scored 46 despite taking shooting only 15 times from floor. Durant/Westbrook took 37 of Thunder's 43 foul shots- they need to get others involved. Mavericks are 6-0 at home in playoffs, winning by 2-12-8-11-12-9 points. Thunder is 2-4 on road in playoffs, losing by 3-8-12-9 points. Bottom line is this: if Oklahoma City doesn't make Nowitzki pass ball a lot more in this game, they will get beat again- they have no one who can stop him 1-on-1. Like Miami last night, this is an attitude game for the Thunder.

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:34 AM

NBA

Thursday, May 19

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. DALLAS
Oklahoma City is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:36 AM

NBA

Thursday, May 19

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Thunder at Mavericks: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)

Dallas leads series 1-0

THE STORY: After getting one of the greatest shooting efforts in NBA playoff history two nights earlier, the Dallas Mavericks will be hoping for an encore performance from Dirk Nowitzki in Game 2 of the Western Conference Final on Thursday. Nowitzki erupted for 48 points while going perfect on 24 free throws as the Mavs cruised past the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-112.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City had absolutely no answer for Nowitzki, who shredded the Thunder's troop of big men from start to finish. Kendrick Perkins landed in early foul trouble and was tentative the rest of the way. Nazr Mohammed did not have the lateral quickness to keep up with Nowitzki, who used an array of stepback jumpers and drives to the lane to generate most of his offense. Serge Ibaka did the best job against Nowitzki, but even he found himself somewhat neutralized by the foul count and simply incapable of keeping Nowitzki from scoring at will. Kevin Durant had a similarly dominant night, scoring 40 points in defeat. Unlike Nowitzki, Durant didn't get enough from his supporting cast - particularly Russell Westbrook, who scored 20 points but made just three of 15 shots.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Nowitzki's night was one for the record books. His 24-for-24 result from the free-throw line established a new league playoff record for most made free throws without a miss, breaking the old mark of 21 set by Boston's Paul Pierce in 2003. Nowitzki also hit 12 of 15 shots from the field, falling just two points shy of his single-game playoff record without even attempting a 3-pointer. Jason Terry took care of the long-distance scoring, burying four 3s to finish with 24 points off the bench. J.J. Barea added 21, including 12 straight Dallas points during a pivotal fourth-quarter stretch. Oklahoma City simply couldn't keep up with the Mavericks' relentless offense, with the pick-and-roll working to near-perfection throughout the game.

WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Nowitzki is shooting 62 percent (62 for 100) from the floor over his last six games, including 8 for 12 from beyond the arc. Westbook has made just 7 of 27 shots over the past two outings, and hasn't attempted a 3-pointer in either of them.

KEY STATISTIC: 50-22 - Dallas' advantage in bench scoring in Game 1. With Nowitzki and Durant expected to cancel each other out, the Thunder cannot afford to see their reserves outscored so handily moving forward.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Dallas.
* Thunder are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Dallas.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

LAST WORD: "He's a man on a mission right now." - Mavericks center Tyson Chandler, speaking about Nowitzki.

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:38 AM

NBA

Thursday, May 19

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Pick 'n' roll: Thursday’s best NBA bets
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5, 200)

Game 1 between these teams couldn’t have been more choppy. For most of the evening, it seemed like referees Joe Crawford, Bill Kennedy and Zach Zarba thought people came to watch them blow their whistles.

The incompetent trio whistled 58 combined fouls as each side attempted at least 36 free throws. Mavs forward Dirk Nowitzki was an NBA postseason record 24-for-24 from the charity stripe and Thunder star Kevin Durant was 18-for-19.

Both stars won’t have as absurd totals in Game 2, but there is little reason to think that it still won’t be a high-scoring affair. Dallas and Oklahoma City each have seen the past two games go over the total and love to get up and down the floor with deep benches.

Following a loss this postseason, Oklahoma City has allowed an opponent to score at least 100 points three out of four times. Overall, the Thunder have surrendered at least 100 points in four of six road games.

The Mavericks would welcome a fast-paced game against the Thunder too. Dallas has scored at least 93 points in four of five home games this postseason and cracked the century mark three times during that span.

"Whatever comes comes," Nowitzki, who had 48 points in Game 1, said. "I'm not really expecting anything. I'm going to go in there and try to attack like I always do and when they come I think we all have confidence in our shooting ability ... Whatever they give me or the team we've got to be able to attack and I think there's nothing really I haven't seen in my 13 years. They might double-team, they might bring the center over and flood the strong side, but whatever we've got to be ready to attack.”

Look for both teams to be on the attack.

Pick: Over

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:39 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Boston at Tampa Bay

The Bruins look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games as a road underdog from +110 to +150. Boston is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 19

Game 59-60: Boston at Tampa Bay (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.729; Tampa Bay 12.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Over

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:43 AM

NHL
Write-Up

Thursday, May 19

Tampa Bay scored five goals in each of first two series games, but had to play 9:50 of Game 2 shorthanded, giving up two goals, as Bruins had 14 of their 35 shots in those 10 minutes. Lightning rallied back from down 6-3 to scare Beantown crowd, but goalie Thomas stopped several golden chances for Lightning goals. In 79:43 when teams have been even so far in series, Bruins have six goals on 50 shots, Tampa Bay has eight goals on 60 shots. Teams split their last eight meetings in this building, with four of last five series meetings going over the total.

**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:45 AM

NHL

Thursday, May 19

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Boston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games at home

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:50 AM

NHL

Thursday, May 19

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Bruins at Lightning: What bettors need to know
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Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning (-152, 5.5)

Series tied 1-1

THE STORY: The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 13 seconds into Game 2 on Tuesday and the collective groan let out by the TD Garden faithful suggested that the hometown Boston Bruins might be in for a long night. As it turned out, the Bruins erupted for five second-period goals and held on for a 6-5 triumph to even the Eastern Conference finals at one game apiece. Playing in place of an injured Patrice Bergeron, rookie Tyler Seguin collected two goals and two assists and Michael Ryder also scored twice to fuel the charge. The loss snapped a franchise-tying eight-game postseason winning streak for Tampa Bay, which now heads home to host Game 3 on Thursday.

TV: 8 ET, VERSUS, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Tampa Bay suffered its first loss in nearly a month. Well, 27 days to be exact. The Lightning fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 4 to be pushed to the brink of elimination before winning their next eight contests. Captain Vincent Lecavalier had a goal and three assists and Steven Stamkos recorded three points (one goal and two assists) and a team-high seven shots on goal in Game 2. Dwayne Roloson permitted six goals on 27 shots before being relieved by Mike Smith to start the third period. The 41-year-old Roloson will be back in net for Game 3. The Lightning lost for the first time in nine playoff games when scoring first. After collecting just two penalty minutes during the team's sweep of the Washington Capitals in the conference semifinals, Ryan Malone spent six minutes in the box on Tuesday.

ABOUT THE BRUINS: Vezina Trophy finalist Tim Thomas overcame Adam Hall's early goal and turned aside 36 shots. Seguin got the TD Garden crowd rockin' when he converted a breakaway to tie the game at 2-2 just 48 seconds into the second period. After David Krejci gave Boston the lead 96 seconds later, Seguin netted his second of the contest when he scored on a 2-on-1 advantage. He would later assist on both of Ryder's goals late in the session. Milan Lucic had a team-high five shots in nearly 21 minutes of ice time.

WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: After being held off the scoresheet in Game 1, Nathan Horton recorded a goal and two assists to continue his impressive maiden voyage in the postseason. Horton has now collected 11 points in his last seven games. Tampa Bay's Steve Downie started the postseason with a bang by recording 12 points, but he has failed to secure a point in the first two games of this series.

SPECIAL TEAMS: After going 0-for-4 in the series opener and 2-for-41 in the playoffs, Boston finally ignited its dormant power play. The Bruins went 2-for-6 with the man advantage in Game 2 as Horton and Ryder scored on Tuesday. For its part, Tampa Bay went 1-for-4 on the power play in Game 2 and is now 14-for-52 in the playoffs. The Lightning have also killed off 59 of 64 shorthanded situations.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bruins are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

LAST WORD: "It’s hard sitting there and not being able to help the boys,” Seguin, on being a healthy scratch during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The second overall pick of the 2010 draft, Seguin gained entry into the lineup after Bergeron was sidelined with a mild concussion.

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:53 AM

NHL

Thursday, May 19

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Ice picks: Thursday’s best NHL bets
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Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning (-135, 5.5)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have found their offensive stride – and it’s at a bad time for the Bruins.

Boston has ridden the white hot goaltending of Tim Thomas this season, but now must go on the road to face the Lightning after securing a 6-5 win in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1. And the road hasn’t been the kindest place in the world to the Bruins. The team has given up nearly three goals per game in 5 away tilts this postseason.

Overall, the Bruins have seen the over hit in four straight and six of their past seven.

But expect them to keep scoring – even if they are giving up a little too much on the defensive side. Rookie center Tyler Seguin caught the eye of fans around the NHL with his two-goal, two-assist second period in Game 2, making him the first teenager to score four points in a single period of a playoff game and the first player to do it at all since Trevor Linden in 1989.

“He played unbelievable,” Seguin’s linemate Michael Ryder said. “He was dominant today and it’s good to see him play like that, you know? Hopefully he can keep it going. ... Obviously you’re not going to see every night a four point game from him, but as long as he’ll be playing with the speed he is and the intensity, he’s going to bring a lot to this team.”

Tampa Bay will have to match that speed and the Lightning seem ready. Seguin’s performance overshadowed an equally impressive four-point night from Lightning forward Vincent Lecavalier.

Tampa Bay has scored 26 goals over its past six games – five wins – and has seen the over hit five times during that span.

“We’re not a team that is waiting to win games,” Tampa Bay coach Guy Boucher said. “We like to push to win games. Obviously, when it’s time to play defense, it’s time to play defense. When we’ve got the puck we keep pushing.”

Pick: Over

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:56 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (63 - 32) at DALLAS (66 - 27) - 5/19/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all playoff games this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when leading in a playoff series this season.
DALLAS is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DALLAS is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 100-80 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 77-55 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-38 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 05-19-2011, 09:58 AM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, May 19

Western Conference Finals - Game 2 - DAL leads 1-0
OKLAHOMA CITY at DALLAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
OKLAHOMA CITY: 21-6 Over at Dallas
DALLAS: 11-0 ATS in playoffs

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 5/19 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 5/19 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

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