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**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 11:03 PM

MLB Betting: Phillies host Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies haven’t had much luck against the Philadelphia Phillies in recent years. They begin a quick 2-game series in the City of Brotherly Love on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

Colorado will send Jorge De La Rosa (5-1, 3.70 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park at 4:05 p.m. (PT). Philadelphia will counter will one of its four aces in Cole Hamels (4-2, 3.19 ERA).

This is the first meeting between the teams this year. Colorado was just 1-6 against its NL East counterpart last season, getting swept in a four-game series in Philadelphia.

The Rockies are 4-18 in the meetings over the last three years, 2-10 in Philadelphia. That includes the 2009 wild-card round (3-1 Phillies series win).

Philadelphia (25-15) leads the NL East by a game over Florida, but has dropped three straight pending Tuesday night’s result at St. Louis. That’s the end of an eight-game road trip (3-4 so far).

The offense has been a problem the last three games (six total runs) and in May in total (3.36 runs per game, 13th in the NL).

The Rockies (21-18) are just a half-game behind San Francisco in the mediocre NL West. They went for a two-game home sweep over San Fran on Tuesday (result pending). That will conclude an eight-game homestand (3-4 so far).

Pitching has been the problem for Colorado in May with the NL’s highest ERA (4.92). Ubaldo Jimenez, a 19-game winner last year, has been a huge disappointment all season (6.67 ERA). The Rockies have lost all six of his starts.

De La Rosa has been one of the May culprits (5.60 ERA). The Rockies have lost two of his three starts. Ironically, they won (12-7) his worst outing this month, five runs allowed over 5 1/3 innings versus San Diego last Friday.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in De La Rosa’s road starts this season and 9-1 in his last 10 away.

The 30-year-old lefty hasn’t faced the Phillies since 2009. He was 0-2 in two starts with a combined 11.17 ERA. One of those was seven-runs allowed over five innings at Citizens Bank Park. He’s 0-2 lifetime there in two starts (14.04 ERA).

Philadelphia is 26-9 in its last 35 games against left-handed starters and a stunning 9-1 this season.

Hamels is incredibly the fourth starter on this team. That’s what happens with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt in the rotation. He last pitched Friday, allowing four earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 win at Atlanta. Philly is 6-1 in his last seven starts.

The 27-year-old lefty has a much lower ERA away (2.25) than at home (4.25). However, that’s skewed by an awful home opener against the Mets on April 5 (six earned runs over 2 2/3 innings). His ERA in his last three home starts is just 2.35.

Hamels also hasn’t faced Colorado since the 2009 wild-card round. He surrendered four earned runs over five innings in a 5-4 home loss.

Philadelphia is 13-7 at home this year (+1.6 units). The ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in its last eight home games.

Colorado is 11-8 on the road (+2.3 units), but has lost its last four there.

Philadelphia outfielder Shane Victorino (hamstring injury) was doubtful Tuesday after missing the prior two games. His .846 OBP is really missed in the lineup especially with Chase Utley (knee) out the whole year so far.

Weather will be in the upper 60s with rain and possible thunder. The scheduled pitching matchup on Thursday is Joe Blanton against Jhoulys Chacin.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 11:05 PM

Umpire influence tough to cap in MLB betting

James Hoye has been among the most consistent ’under’ umps the past few seasons.
The 2011 MLB regular season is headed for the quarter pole as the honeymoon surrounding the freshness of a new year of baseball has all but worn off with the dog days of summer right around the corner.

The first 40 games or so of the season gives you a good idea of which pitchers are throwing their best stuff, which teams are clicking at the plate, and how umpire tendencies are impacting the outcome of a game.

Home plate umpires remain one of biggest factors when it comes to handicapping MLB games so having a good understanding of the size of each one’s strike zone can provide a subtle edge. This is especially true when it comes to looking for value in ‘totals.’ The one thing that the league expects from its umpires is consistency, not uniformity, so if a particular ump’s strike zone is a bit oversized, it should be that way for every game he calls.

When comparing umpires to solid plays on the ‘over’ line this season, a few that come to mind are Dale Scott, Sam Holbrook, Scott Berry and Tim McClelland. These four gentlemen have called a combined 30 games and 26 of them have gone ‘over’ the total. The average number of runs scored in those 30 games was 10.3 and the average number of home runs hit was 2.1, both numbers above the major league averages (8.4 RPG and 1.75 HR per game).

The leader of the pack would have to be Barry who has had seven of the eight games he has called go ‘over,’ the contests averaging 11.1 runs and 1.88 homers. A close second is Scott, who is also 7-1 against the total line with an average 10.9 runs a game and 2.5 homers.

The early trend for these two may not bear itself out as the season progresses given that their combined record in 2010 in relation to the ‘total’ was 38-29 'over.'

Last season’s top umpire for games going ‘over’ the total was Todd Tichenor. He had 66.7 percent of his 27 called games jump the total with an average of 10.2 runs per game. He is actually 4-3 to the 'under' this year.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are the umpires who have favored the ‘under’ line so far. Phil Cuzzi, Brian Runge, Alan Porter and James Hoye are a combined 22-4 to the low side. The average runs scored in those 28 games was 6.4, although Runge is a bit of an anomaly with an average of 8.1 runs in the seven games he has called.

The undisputed leader in this group is Hoye, who has had five of the six games he called stay ‘under’ the total with an average of just 5.3 runs and 0.83 home runs. Hoye also gets the award for consistency after 25 of the 34 games stayed ‘under’ the total in 2010 and 25 of 38 did the same in 2009.

Last season’s ‘under' king was Greg Gibson, who had an amazing 77.4 percent of his 31 games called stay ‘under’ the total with an average of 7.2 runs per game. This season four of the six games he has called have stayed ‘under’ with an average of 6.7 runs scored.

Top umpires for favoring the home team this season include Brian Knight, Doug Eddings and Lance Barksdale, who are a combined 21-2 so far. Be careful of making too much of this early record as the three wound up going a combined 53-44 for the home side last season.

Alan Porter, Jeff Kellogg and Jim Wolf have been brutal for the home team this year with a combined record of 3-18. These early numbers are also a bit misleading given that the combined record for the home team in 2010 for the trio was 38-35.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 01:55 PM

Wednesday Wagers

May 18, 2011

The Yankees finally put an end to their six-game losing streak by winning 6-2 at Tampa Bay last night. Alex Rodriguez hit a pair of homers to lead Joe Girardi’s squad into the win column. New York pulled to within two games of the AL-East-leading Rays, while remaining one-half game ahead of the surging Red Sox and Blue Jays for second place in the division.

In the NL Central, Cincinnati remains in first place after winning its fifth straight game Tuesday. The Reds are 1 ½ games in front of the Cards, who beat Philadelphia by a 2-1 count thanks to Lance Berkman’s clutch hit in the ninth. The Phillies are just one-half game ahead of Florida and 1 ½ games in front of the Braves in the NL East.

Boston will be aiming for its fifth straight win tonight when it takes on Detroit at Fenway Park. Let’s take a look at this game and a late-night contest in the NL.

**Tigers at Red Sox**

--Most betting shops have installed Boston (21-20, -844) as a minus-180 favorite with a total of 9 ½ ‘under’ (minus-120). Bettors can dodge the expensive straight price by backing the Red Sox on the run line for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

--Terry Francona’s team has won four in a row to improve to 12-9 at home. Francona is expected to give the ball to Clay Buchholz (4-3, 3.94), who is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA his last three times out. Buchholz is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Detroit.

--Detroit (22-19, +107) goes into tonight’s action in second place in the AL Central, five games behind the loop-leading Indians. The Tigers saw their seven-game winning streak snapped by Toronto on Monday night. They are 11-11 on the road so far this season.

--Detroit will go with either LHP Phil Coke, who is 1-5 with a 4.54 ERA. The lefty is 2-1 with a 3.59 lifetime ERA against the Red Sox.

--The ‘over’ is 22-16-3 overall for Detroit, but it has seen three straight ‘unders.’ Totals have been an overall wash for Boston (19-19-3), which has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in its last six.

--The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the Tigers and BoSox.

**Braves at Diamondbacks**

--Atlanta (25-19, +173) won its fourth straight game Tuesday afternoon to sweep a brief two-game set against Houston at Turner Field. The Braves won a 3-1 decision over the Astros in 11 innings thanks to Brian McCann, who was supposed to have a day off. Instead, McCann hit a solo homer to tie the game in the ninth and then ended it with a two-run blast in the 11th. Fredi Gonzalez’s team took the cash as a minus-162 ‘chalk’ and hooked up run-line backers with a fortunate win and generous payout in the plus-140 range (risk $100 to win $140).

--Arizona (18-23, -218) climbed out of the cellar of the National League West with Tuesday’s 6-1 win home win over San Diego. The Diamondbacks are 4 ½ games back of the division-leading Rockies. They now own an 11-10 home record.

--Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra provided the offense in last night’s win by the D-backs, who got a solid effort out of Daniel Hudson over seven innings. Gamblers backing Arizona on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) cashed plus-140 tickets.

--Gonzalez will give the starting nod to rookie RHP Julio Teheran (0-1, 5.79), who made his major-league debut at Philadelphia on May 7. Teheran gave up three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a 3-0 loss to the Phillies. However, the 20-year-old phenom is considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Teheran, who has a 1.91 ERA at the Triple-A level this year, was called back up when RHP Brandon Beachy was placed on the disabled list.

--Arizona will go with Joe Saunders (0-5, 5.48) tonight as he seeks his elusive first win of the year. The left-hander beat the Braves in his only career outing against them, throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

--Atlanta is 7-6 against southpaws this year.

--The ‘over’ was on a 14-4-2 run for the Braves until the ‘under’ emerged in their last three outings. For the season, Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 21-19-4 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 21-18-2 overall for the D-backs, cashing at a lucrative 12-4-1 clip in their last 17 games.

--The ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

--As of early this morning, most books had the Braves as minus-115 favorites with a total of 9 ½ flat (minus-110 either way). The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘over’ has hit in seven straight games for Cleveland.

--The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 26-16 for St. Louis, but the ‘under’ is 12-9 in its home games. The Cards hosts Houston tonight with the total at 7 ½.

--Similar to St. Louis, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ go an MLB-best 25-16 overall. However, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in the Rays’ road assignments. They play at Toronto tonight and will try to halt the Blue Jays’ six-game winning streak.

--Angels’ RHP Jered Weaver will toe the rubber tonight against Seattle. Weaver is 10-3 with a 3.65 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mariners.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 01:58 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

May 18, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 0-8 since April 12, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Braves are 8-0 OU since May 28, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Angels are 0-9-1 OU since July 06, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Athletics are 0-11 (-3.1 rpg) since July 16th, 2009 in the first game of a home series when they are off a win in which they had more than ten hits.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The White Sox are 0-6 since May 09, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $620 when playing against.

The Angels are 6-0 since May 07, 2010 after a 5+ run loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $725.

The Marlins are 7-0 since April 08, 2010 after an extra inning win for a net profit of $855.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 02:03 PM

Red Sox look for 5th straight win hosting Detroit

DETROIT TIGERS (22-19)

at BOSTON RED SOX (21-20)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -165, Detroit +155

Sometimes when it rains it pours, good and bad. Such is the case right now for Boston manager Terry Francona. The good news these days in Beantown is that the Red Sox have finally gotten above the .500 mark (21-20) after their dreadful 2-10 start to the season. While the offense is going great guns with key acquisitions like Adrian Gonzalez starting to live up to what is on the back of his baseball card, the Boston starting pitching is looking tenuous. Struggling starter John Lackey was put on the DL this week with a right elbow strain and fellow starter Daisuke Matsuzaka landed on the injured list a day later with an elbow issue of his own. Between his dwindling collection of healthy pitchers, and adjusting his rotation to deal with rainouts this week, Francona is in dire need of a clutch outing from Clay Buchholz (4-3, 3.94 ERA), who could help extend the team’s win streak to five straight and an eighth victory in 10 games.

Buchholz has been very good in his four career starts versus Detroit, going 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Red Sox won both of his starts against the Tigers last year, as Buchholz allowed just three runs in 14.1 innings (1.88 ERA), but he had more walks (nine) than strikeouts (eight) in these two victories. His last outing versus the Tigers last August was impressive as he went eight innings, allowing just two runs on three hits. Buchholz has won his past three starts this year, including a strong effort Friday versus the Yankees where he allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings. In his past three outings Buchholz has a 1.93 ERA and his control has been stellar, with 15 K and just 4 BB in 18.2 innings. With 26 runs during their four-game win streak, the BoSox offense is starting to smoke. Gonzalez is leading the team in BA, hits, HR, and RBI. He is 17-for-44 (.386) over his past 10 games with seven home runs and 16 RBI. Carl Crawford is finally off the interstate, now batting .208, and while that may not seem terribly impressive, he is presently hitting .341 during a 10-game hitting streak in Fenway Park, while starting to make things happen on the base paths. Jacoby Ellsbury is also red-hot, batting .383 with five steals in his past 10 contests.

Detroit will counter by sending the struggling Phil Coke (1-5, 4.54 ERA) to the mound. Coke is desperate for a win, and will be making his first ever start versus the Red Sox after going 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA and .234 opponents’ BA against the team over 16 relief appearances. The left-hander failed to win for the fifth consecutive start last Wednesday at Minnesota, but showed improvement in allowing just two runs and five hits over 5.2 innings in a 9-7 victory. Coke is 0-3 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.64 WHIP during this five-start winless streak since beating Oakland on April 14.

The Tigers had a seven-game win streak snapped Monday against the Blue Jays. The team should be well-rested, considering Detroit enters Wednesday’s contest having had games rained out as recently as Sunday and Tuesday. The Red Sox also had their Tuesday night game versus Baltimore rained out. The Tiger attack begins and ends with Miguel Cabrera who is leading the team in BA (.307), HR (7), RBI (28) and on-base pct. (.441). Jhonny Peralta (.305 BA, 6 HR, 23 RBI) has provided a nice assist to Cabrera. During the seven-game win streak, the Tigers averaged seven runs per game before Toronto’s Kyle Drabek cooled them off Monday night, as Detroit only scored two runs in the loss. The Tigers enter Fenway with a five-game road winning streak, scoring 43 total runs and getting exactly 11 hits in each of the five victories away from home.

The pick here leans toward Buchholz to extend the Red Sox win streak to five (between the raindrops). This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes Boston to win.

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL). (140-41 since 1997.) (77.3%, +63.6 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 02:05 PM

Rockies try to hand Phils their 5th straight loss

COLORADO ROCKIES (22-18)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (25-16)

First Pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -140, Colorado +130, Total: 7.5

If Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is the great antidote to a team’s offensive virus, better known as “a slump,” then the host Phillies and the visiting Rockies are getting to South Philly just in time.

While the Rockies are coming off a two-game sweep of the Giants, in a series in which they defeated Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez on back-to-back days, they did so despite being in the bottom third of the league in team batting average, and having two if its top offensive stars, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, batting .255 and .234 respectively. The Phillies meanwhile are being outscored by your local six-and-under Saturday morning soccer team. Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost four in a row, and has totaled seven runs in those four games. The Phils are hoping that some home cooking in their home ballpark will remind them what it’s like to see a crooked number on the scoreboard. If that happens, then they won’t have to worry about starting rallies the way they did on Tuesday night in St. Louis, on the strength of a dropped routine pop-up.

Philadelphia will send Cole Hamels to the mound, and if past performance is any indicator, Colorado is licking its chops. Hamels is 0-3 in three career starts against Colorado with an ERA of 8.21 and a WHIP of 1.70. To be fair, Hamels has not faced Colorado in nearly two years, and two of the three losses came during the postseason of 2007 and 2009. Since then he has added a cutter to an arsenal that already includes one of the best change-ups in baseball, and frankly, he is a different pitcher. In his most recent outing, Hamels (4-2, 3.19 ERA) went six innings versus Atlanta, allowing eight hits and four runs, striking out seven and walking one as he got the no-decision.

Whomever the Phillies send to the hill, they will probably need more than one run worth of support to walk away with a victory. That was all that the Phillies offense could manage in consecutive losses to the Cardinals Monday and Tuesday, one run in each game. "We're in a rut right now," Ben Francisco said after Tuesday's 2-1 loss to the Cardinals. "Nobody is hitting. The pitching is doing the job. It's frustrating." That could change once Colorado comes to town. The Phillies swept the Rockies four straight last July, outscoring them 25-9 in the series. Additionally, they have also won 10 of the past 11 regular-season meetings at Citizens Bank Park against the Rockies, averaging 7.5 runs while batting .313. Leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins, who is 3-for-17 (.176) during the skid, is batting .406 with two homers and nine RBI in seven home games against the Rockies since 2009.

The Phillies have also enjoyed considerable success against Colorado’s starting pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, who is 0-3 in four career starts against Philly with an 11.34 ERA and 2.04 WHIP of 2.040. If Hamels and De La Rosa perform to their past numbers, these teams could be getting into their bullpens very quickly. De La Rosa has recorded a 12.46 ERA in losing his past three starts to Philadelphia, and has been tagged for 14 runs in 8.1 innings in losing his two career starts at Citizens Bank Park. This season, De La Rosa is 5-1 with a 3.70 ERA, having won his most recent start Friday against the Padres despite allowing nine hits and five runs over 5.2 innings. The Rockies are hoping that between Carlos Gonzalez, who hit a three-run homer Monday off Lincecum, and Tulowitzki, who homered Tuesday, the core of the offense can stay hot enough to keep up with a Phillies offense that is overdue to break out. Tulowitzki is hitting .333 with two home runs and eight RBI in his past five games after batting .087 with two solo homers in his previous 12. Todd Helton leads the team with a .322 average.

Provided they can get the game in (heavy rain showers continue to linger over the Northeast this week), the pick here is for the Phillies offense to get healthy against a Colorado team that has allowed 40 runs over its past six games. The following FoxSheets support Philadelphia as well.

Play On - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (247-138 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.2%, +75.9 units. Rating = 2*).

PHILADELPHIA is 92-43 (68.1%, +35.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 02:06 PM

Peavy tries to silence Cleveland's loud bats

CLEVELAND INDIANS (26-13)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (18-25)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -120, Cleveland +110, Total: 8.5

Jake Peavy will be in search of his first win in nearly 11 months when the White Sox host Cleveland on Wednesday night.

Peavy returned from shoulder surgery last Wednesday, making his first start since July 6. He was far from his old Cy Young form, allowing four runs and seven hits in a six-inning, no-decision against the Angels, but he didn’t walk a batter and his velocity was almost back at pre-surgery levels. Peavy will likely be on a pitch count again on Wednesday. He threw 87 pitches in Los Angeles last week.

Peavy will have his hands full against an Indians lineup that just scored 26 runs in their two-game set at Kansas City. Chicago lost all four of his starts against Cleveland last year, with Peavy going 0-2 with a 4.62 ERA.

The Indians will throw Justin Masterson. The right-hander has been one of baseball’s rising young stars this season, going 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA. The Tribe have won six of his eight starts. His last outing, Thursday versus Tampa, was his worst of the season though. Masterson struggled with his command, walking four and allowing eight hits and five runs in 5.2 innings. This snapped his streak of seven straight quality starts to begin the season.

Masterson has thrown some gems against the White Sox over the years. In April, he held them to one run over seven innings (though he didn’t strike out a batter), and he’s held them to one run in six of his seven career starts against them. In three starts at U.S. Cellular Field, he’s allowed three runs over 14.2 innings.

Considering Peavy’s rust and Masterson’s mastery of the White Sox over the years, I think if anything the money line should favor the Indians. Plus, the White Sox are 6-12 at home this season, making Cleveland an easy pick.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that works in the Indians’ favor as well:

CLEVELAND is 19-5 (79.2%, +16.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-18-2011, 02:19 PM

Wednesday, May 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -118 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Colorado - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -145 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay -102 500
Toronto - Over 8 500

Detroit - 7:10 PM ET Detroit +161 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +138 500
Florida - Under 7.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +108 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +141 500
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +116 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Texas - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +112 500
Kansas City - Over 8 500

Houston - 8:15 PM ET Houston +153 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Atlanta - 9:40 PM ET Arizona +105 500
Arizona - Under 9.5 500

Minnesota - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -173 500
Oakland - Over 7 500

Milwaukee - 10:05 PM ET Milwaukee -118 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

San Francisco - 10:10 PM ET San Francisco +122 500
LA Dodgers - Under 6.5 500

LA Angels - 10:10 PM ET LA Angels -145 500
Seattle - Over 6.5 500

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The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

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