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**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:40 PM

MLB Betting: Giants close set at Colorado Rockies

The top two teams in the National League West Division square off in the final contest of a short two-game series at Coors Field with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 p.m. (PT).

San Francisco entered the series with a 1.5-game lead on Coloradoand the clubs will be matching up for already the eighth time during the 2011 campaign. The Giants won five of the first six meeting sheading into Monday's contest that was still pending. San Francisco's pitching staff surrenderedthree runs or less in all five of the previous victories.

Giants hurlers started the week ranked third in the National League with a 3.31 ERA and tied for first in strikeouts (328) with Atlanta and Philadelphia.

Left-hander Jonathan Sanchez (3-2, 3.68) is set to make his ninth start of the season for the Giants and has contributed to the staff’s league-leading strikeout total with 58. He has fanned at least four batters in all eight outings this year.

Sanchez registered a 6-3 road win over the Rockies on April 19, surrendering three runs (two earned) and two hits over 6 1/3 innings of work. He will be making his 12th career appearance (eighth start) at Coors Field, bringing in a 4-2 record and 4.91 ERA.

San Francisco has captured eight victories in Sanchez’s last nine outings versus divisional opponents and the ‘under’ is 7-2-2 in that particular situation.

Colorado hasn’t won a series since sweeping the Cubs on April 25-26 and has won just a single NL West series this year. The Rockies started play on Monday two games over .500, but have cost bettors 5.20 units.

“We just can’t do anything right at all right now,” said Rockies starter Jason Hammel. “Defense has been pretty constant, but pitching and hitting, it’s kind of hit-or-miss.”

Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has struggled for most of the year after batting an NL-leading .336 last season. He came out of the weekend hitting .234 in 2011 and left Sunday’s 8-2 loss after getting hit in the foot during the eighth inning.

Gonzalez may receive a day off on Tuesday due to his recent numbers against the Giants and the opposing starter. He’s 3 for 21 against the Giants this season and hitless in 14 at-bats versus Sanchez.

Colorado will attempt to win its first game behind ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who is suffering through a forgettable six-game stretch to start the year. Jimenez is 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA after the hard-throwing right-hander out of the Dominican Republic established career-highs in wins (19) and strikeouts (214) just a year ago.

Jimenez has been dreadful inside the lines at Coors Field, posting a horrendous 0-3 record and 8.68 ERA, giving up four home runs and issuing 13 walks in 18 2/3 innings. He suffered his first loss of the season against the Sanchez last month, allowing four earned runs and six hits over five frames.

The Rockies have lost five straight games versus divisional opponents and nine games overall with him on the mound.

Weather forecasts suggest cloudy skies for the Denver area with a game-time high in the mid-60s and a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms. Swirling winds of 10-15 mph is also expected.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 10:41 PM

New York Yankees, Rays in MLB betting clash

Even when they were known as the Devil Rays, Tampa Bay always gave the New York Yankees fits. Last year, Joe Maddon and company took 10 of the 18 meetings between these two AL East rivals, and on Tuesday night, they'll wrap up a brief two-game set at Tropicana Field.

First pitch is slated for 3:40 p.m. (PT) under the dome in St. Petersburg.

Coming into this series, Tampa Bay surprisingly owned a two-game lead on the Bronx Bombers in the AL East standings. New York didn't get off to the greatest start in the world this year, but the Rays were absolutely atrocious. They were once upon a time just 0-6 (-$793) and 1-8 (-$894).

However, since those first nine games of the year, Tampa Bay has been on a roll, going 22-9 and accounting for almost 13 units worth of profits.

Matt Joyce has been tearing the cover off of the baseball of late for the Rays. He has six multi-hit games in his last eight, and is batting .448 with 11 runs scored, six RBIs and four home runs in that stretch as well.

On the mound will be "Big Game" James Shields who hasn't been so "big game" in his career against the Yankees. Shields is 4-11 in his last 15 attempts against the men in pinstripes, but this year might be a heck of a lot different.

Shields is pitching like a Cy Young contender right now, and he is clearly one of the reasons why the Rays are in first place in the AL East. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start in his last six outings, and hasn't lost a game since April 2. Shields has a 4-1 mark with a 2.08 ERA on the season, and he already has two complete games, one of which was a shutout.

The New York offense is hoping to hassle him on Tuesday, though. We're talking about a lineup that is on pace to score 810 runs on the season.

The "Bronx Bombers" moniker is definitely one that the Yanks are living up to this year. They already have 60 homers on the season, including 13 by Curtis Granderson. If this keeps up, Granderson will have 55 home runs, and the team will have 256 long balls.

Ivan Nova has done his job at a back of the rotation starter for New York this year. Manager Joe Girardi knows that his team is 9-4 in Nova's last 13 starts overall dating back to last season. He has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, and though those numbers aren't absolutely astounding, they should be good enough to be productive when you've got a lineup averaging 5.00 runs per game.

Nova has only faced the Rays twice in his career. He hasn't gotten a decision yet and he hasn't helped his team's cause any, allowing eight runs in just 10 1/3 innings of work (6.97 ERA).

Tampa Bay is only 10-12 at home on the campaign, while New York is level at 7-7 thus far in MLB betting action in 2011 on the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-16-2011, 11:18 PM

Early Games:

Tuesday, May 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 1:05 PM ET Houston +168 500
Atlanta - Under 7 500

Pittsburgh - 1:05 PM ET Washington -130 500
Washington - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 3:10 PM ET San Francisco +126 500
Colorado - Over 8 500

NY Yankees - 6:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -147 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:33 PM

Danks tries to snap winless drought facing Texas

TEXAS RANGERS (22-19)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (17-25)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -140, Texas +130, Total: 9

The White Sox and Rangers complete their brief two-game series Tuesday at U.S. Cellular Field when two struggling pitchers who have combined to lose nine straight starts will square off against each other.

Texas will throw Matt Harrison (3-4, 4.35 ERA), who after starting the season 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, has gone 0-4 with a 8.31 ERA and 2.01 WHIP in his past four starts. Harrison was much improved in his last outing on May 11 when he limited the Athletics to one hit over four innings and the Rangers led 7-0 before heavy rains washed out the game -- and the stats. Harrison dominated the White Sox in his two starts against them in 2009, going 2-0 with a WHIP of 0.79 and did not allow a run. He did not pitch against them last season.

Chicago will counter with John Danks (0-6, 4.50 ERA) who after winning a career-high 15 games last season, is winless in his eight starts this season. The White Sox are 0-8 in his starts this season. Danks is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA in his five career starts against the Rangers.

Monday’s loss made it 10 defeats in the past 11 home games for the White Sox. They are averaging 2.6 runs while batting .205 in these past 11 games on the South Side, with Adam Dunn hitting .083, Gordon Beckham .167 and Paul Konerko .194. However, Danks is too good to stay winless and I like him to get his first victory of 2011. I’m taking Chicago.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the White Sox:

Play On - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (68-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +32.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (91-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:35 PM

Orioles look to get even with Red Sox Tuesday

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (19-21)

at BOSTON RED SOX (21-20)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -110, Boston +100, Total: 9

After a ninth-inning rally on Monday night, the red-hot Red Sox are over .500 for the first time this season and have a chance to win their fifth straight (weather permitting) Tuesday night against Baltimore.

After sweeping at Yankee Stadium over the weekend, the Sox fell behind 6-0 against the Orioles on Monday night thanks to another disastrous outing from Daisuke Matsuzaka (five runs, five hits, seven walks in 4.1 innings). But after Baltimore starter Chris Tillman shut them out over the first five frames, Boston rallied for eight runs against the bullpen. Trailing 7-6 in the bottom of the ninth, Adrian Gonzalez hit a one-out, two-run double off O’s closer Kevin Gregg to win it.

Boston will have knuckleballer Tim Wakefield filling in for the injured John Lackey on Tuesday. Wakefield has been moving in and out of the rotation all season, and this will be his third start of 2011. His last one was a disaster. On May 6, Wakefield allowed eight runs (six earned), nine hits and walked four in 4.1 innings against the Twins. Minnesota has by far the worst offense in baseball (3.10 runs per game), and that was one of only three games this season in which it scored more than five runs.

Wakefield did make two solid starts against the Orioles last season, holding them to two runs over 6.2 innings in April and two runs over eight innings in July. But Baltimore didn’t have Vladimir Guerrero last year. The Orioles’ new DH has teed off on Wakefield over the years. In 35 career plate appearances, Guerrero has 12 hits, including five home runs, and 10 walks against Wakefield, an absurd 1.749 OPS. In a much smaller sample size, new first baseman Derrek Lee is 4-for-7 with three walks against Wakefield, though Lee might have to sit on Tuesday because of an oblique injury.

Rookie left-hander Zach Britton will start for Baltimore. He’s coming off an absolute gem, a three-hit shutout of the Mariners last Thursday, moving him to 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA on the year. The O’s have won six of his eight starts.

Britton beat Boston at home on April 26, holding them to one run over six innings. The Sox have hit lefties well this year (.770 OPS vs. LHP), but Britton has been more effective against right-handed bats, getting them to pound the ball into the ground. Righties are hitting just .190 against Britton (lefties are hitting .232).

I don’t think Britton is as good as his current ERA might indicate, but I do think he’s far better than Wakefield right now. If the rain holds off, my pick is Baltimore to avenge Monday’s loss.

The FoxSheets have a trend that shows Boston’s recent winning streak isn’t necessarily a good thing for their chances on Tuesday:

Play Against - Any team (BOSTON) - off 4 straight wins vs. division rivals, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. (73-49 over the last 5 seasons, 59.8%, +43.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:36 PM

King Felix tries to hand Twins a 10th straight loss

MINNESOTA TWINS (12-27)

at SEATTLE MARINERS (17-23)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -190, Minnesota +180, Total: 6.5

The Twins and Mariners complete their two-game series Tuesday when the Mariners host slumping Minnesota, losers of nine straight games.

When you have made the playoffs six times in the past nine seasons, you get a certain amount of flack when you get off to a poor start. However, the good faith that the Twins have built up over that time is starting to run out, thanks to a current nine-game losing streak that has them buried with the worst record in the majors. A big part of their struggle has to do with the absence of Joe Mauer who has played in just nine games. The Twins catchers have the lowest BA of any major-league team positions, hitting .139 for the season. Francisco Liriano (2-5, 7.07 ERA) has one of the few happy moments of the 2011 season for the Twins when he no-hit the White Sox on May 3. In his six other starts, Liriano is 1-5 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Liriano had great success against the Mariners in 2010, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his two starts against them.

Seattle has had its own problems, as Monday’s win in the first game of this series snapped a six-game losing streak. Felix Hernandez (4-3, 3.36 ERA) will get the start for the Mariners. Hernandez is 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six career home starts against Minnesota. He's allowed one run in each of his past three matchups at Safeco Field, including a 4-1 victory June 3. Hernandez though, had a three-game win streak snapped with a 4-2 loss in Baltimore on Wednesday. He allowed four runs, walked three and hit a batter while failing to pitch into the sixth inning for the second time this season. Hernandez was 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his previous four starts.

Monday’s loss dropped the Twins to 15 games below .500 for the first time since the end of the 2000 season when they finished 69-93. Their nine-game losing streak is the franchise’s longest skid since September 1998 when they dropped 10 straight. Minnesota just has nothing going right now, and with King Felix on the mound a hard task becomes impossible. I’m taking heavily-favored Seattle to win, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend gives another reason to fade the slumping Twins:

MINNESOTA is 4-17 (19.0%, -14.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.0, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:37 PM

Reds go for 5th straight win hosting Cubs

CHICAGO CUBS (17-22)

at CINCINNATI REDS (24-17)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -130, Chicago +120, Total: 7.5

The big red machine is doing demolition work on Midwestern baseball fans in Illinois and Missouri. Winners of four straight and 10 of its last 12 (including a three-game home sweep of the Cardinals over the weekend), Dusty Baker’s club appears to be picking up where it left off last year when it controlled the NL Central for most of the season. Tuesday the Reds try to make it five straight when they send Edinson Volquez to the mound to battle Matt Garza and the Cubs.

Garza (2-4, 4.17 ERA) has only faced the Reds once in his career, that start came earlier this season when the right-hander was touched up for six hits in six innings, allowing five earned runs in a 5-4 loss to Cincy on May 6. However, that was the only outing Garza lost in his three most recent starts. He defeated St. Louis on May 11, thanks in large part to his team scoring 11 runs that day (hey, a win’s a win), and he beat Arizona 5-3 on April 30 in what may have been his most dominant outing of the year. Garza went eight innings that day, allowing three runs on six hits, while striking out 10. That is the form Garza hopes to muster against the Reds on Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see what kind of Cubs team shows up following Monday’s 7-4 defeat to the Reds, a game that saw the team blow a 4-0 lead. After the contest, Cubs manager Mike Quade called a closed-door meeting to address a performance he described as embarrassing. "You get beat, you get beat," Quade said. "But we're beating ourselves way too much, and we've got enough issues competing as it is without beating ourselves. When I see that, if I'm going to lose sleep, I'm going to have my say before I do, that's all." Hitting has not been one of the issues. The Cubs are the second-best hitting team in the majors (.278), unfortunately the hitting has not translated into run production, where the team ranks in the bottom third of the league. The dazzling shortstop, second baseman combo of Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney are hitting .331 and .345 respectively, meanwhile Alfonso Soriano leads the team with 11 homers.

The hot Reds will counter with Volquez (3-1, 5.74 ERA) on the mound. The Reds are a perfect 4-0 versus the Cubs when Volquez takes the hill, due to a 1.90 ERA, but Volquez has been wild against Chicago with 18 walks in 23.2 innings. He last faced the Cubs on May 6 in the aforementioned game that Garza and the Cubs lost. Volquez was less than sharp, lasting only five innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits. In his past three outings, Volquez has a win and two no-decisions, and has not made it past the fifth inning in any of the three starts. In his last outing Wednesday in Houston he allowed three runs on three hits and five walks in just four innings and was pulled. Control has not been a strong suit for Volquez, as he has walked 14 batters and struck out only 10 in his past 14 innings of work. Those control numbers help explain his 5.74 ERA on the season, as well as his 1.79 WHIP over his last three starts. Volquez has been very fortunate that his team is 5-4 in his outings this season, as he ranks second in the NL in run support (8.50 runs per game).

While his power numbers are slightly down (5 HR, 23 RBI), Joey Votto ranks among the top five in the majors in runs (32, t-2nd), walks (34, t-2nd), on-base pct. (.472, 2nd) and BA (.345, 5th). The Reds lead the majors in offense (5.32 runs per game), so if this game’s starting pitchers hit the showers early, Cincy should be able to hold its own in a slugfest. Jay Bruce leads the team with eight homers.

The pick here is for Volquez to regain his mojo against a Cubs team he has dominated over his career. Go with Cincinnati to make it five straight wins Tuesday. The following pair of FoxSheets trends support the pick.

Play On - Home teams (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing. (30-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL. (46-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +29 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:39 PM

Jimenez looks for first win of season Tuesday vs. Giants

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (22-18)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (21-18)

First Pitch: Tuesday, 3:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Colorado -135, San Francisco +125, Total: 8.5

Tuesday afternoon in Denver, the Rockies will try to avoid the fate that afflicted the Giants big-name starter and perennial Cy Young contender on Monday night. Tim Lincecum allowed nine hits and seven runs over 5.2 innings as the world champs went down to defeat in Coors Field 7-4. Tuesday Colorado will send big gun Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound. Jimenez went 19-8 last season, but is still looking for his first win of the season in 2011, while at the same time trying to lower an ERA that would make for a decent 60-yard dash time, but a terrible line on a pitcher’s stat sheet (6.67).

Jimenez will face the Giants for the 17th time in his career. Despite stellar numbers of 3.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, Colorado is a paltry 6-10 during these starts. In his most recent start Thursday against the Mets, Jimenez got roughed up for five runs on three hits in 3.2 innings. A particular problem for Jimenez that day has been an issue for him all season, his fading control. Jimenez walked six while striking out just three versus New York. For the season, he has walked 22 batters in 29.2 innings of work, while striking out 30. By comparison, last season Jimenez’s K/BB ratio was better than 2-to-1 (214 K, 92 BB). In his most recent three starts Jimenez has not gotten past the sixth inning. He has also dropped two of his past three outings versus the Giants, and Tuesday will mark the third time already this year that Jimenez will face the G-men. On May 6, he pitched six innings, allowed one run and took a no-decision. On April 19, he gave up six hits and four runs over five innings in taking the loss.

Despite Monday’s win, the Rockies are 3-8 in their past 11 games. In their past five contests, the Rockies have been the perfect hosts, allowing the opposition to score 37 runs, giving away scores the way a game show host gives away consolation prizes. Saturday featured an epic collapse, as Colorado led 7-1 after six innings only to allow eight runs in three innings to lose at home 9-7. Tuesday the Rockies may have to try and get the sweep of the two-game series the old-fashioned way, by winning a slugfest. Despite being 22nd in the majors in hitting (.239 BA, one better than the Giants hitting .238), the Rockies got a three-run HR Monday from Carlos Gonzalez off Lincecum, meanwhile Troy Tulowitzki (10 HR, 24 RBI) added a two-run single.

The Giants will counter with lefty Jonathan Sanchez (3-2, 3.68 ERA), who is 4-4 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 12 career starts versus Colorado. Sanchez has two wins and a no-decision in his past three outings versus the Rockies, including a strong April effort in which he went 6.1 innings and allowed three runs (two earned) on just two hits. Also, in the past three seasons at Coors Field, Sanchez carries a 2.82 ERA and has allowed a paltry .158 batting average (12-for-76) to Colorado hitters. He has yet to last seven innings this year, but Sanchez’s last start Wednesday saw him earn a win over the Diamondbacks, allowing six hits and three runs over six innings.

With San Francisco at or near rock bottom of the league in hitting, runs scored and home runs, it would behoove Sanchez to keep this a pitchers duel. Especially when the team’s leading power hitter (Pablo Sandoval) is on the DL, and their leading overall hitter (Freddy Sanchez) is only batting .272. While Colorado has allowed the 37 runs in its past five games, the Giants have scored just 18 during its past five contests. Despite that, San Francisco has won seven of its past nine games.

The pick here is for Sanchez to play the stopper, notch the win for the Giants and get the team out of town with the NL West lead they brought with them to Denver. The following two highly-rated FoxSheets trends support the San Francisco pick.

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.3 runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games. (87-70 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.4%, +54.8 units. Rating = 3*).

SAN FRANCISCO is 58-28 (67.4%, +30.7 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-17-2011, 06:47 PM

MLB

Tuesday, May 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees 0 Top 1 Tampa Bay -147 500
Tampa Bay 0 Under 8.5 500

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto +139 500
Detroit - Over 8.5 500

Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Boston -107 500
Boston - Under 9 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +119 500
Cincinnati - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -140 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland -107 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

Philadelphia - 8:15 PM ET Philadelphia +141 500
St. Louis - Over 7 500

San Diego - 9:40 PM ET San Diego +140 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

LA Angels - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -148 500
Oakland - Under 7 500

Minnesota - 10:10 PM ET Minnesota +178 500
Seattle - Under 6.5 500

Milwaukee - 10:10 PM ET Milwaukee +108 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500

**Dat Boi E** · 05-17-2011, 07:23 PM

good luck, Bum!

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The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

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