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The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !

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  • The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !

    MLB Betting: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

    Chris Carpenter is 9-0 in his last 10 starting assignments vs. Cincinnati.
    A 3-game series in the NL Central between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds comes to a conclusion on Sunday. The contest between the top two teams in their division will be played at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati at 10:10 a.m. (PT).

    The Reds opened up as bigger favorites in the series on the Don Best odds screen, but the gap was narrowed to Cincinnati at -115 and St. Louis at -105. In this game, the Cardinals are a 120 favorite with the run total set at 8½.

    This matchup features two of the best offenses in baseball and a starting pitcher rematch form their last series on April 23.

    With these two clubs, let’s talk hitting first.

    The Cards are leading the majors in both batting average and on base percentage. The Reds are certainly no slouch, though. They are top five in each of those categories as well home runs. These high-powered offenses don’t stop there, either. St. Louis and Cincinnati are number one and two in runs and RBI, respectively.

    For the Cardinals, it isn’t all about Albert Pujols (7HR, .273). Matt Holiday is killing it out there batting just under .400 and Lance Berkman has found the fountain of youth with 10 homers and 33 RBI.

    As for Cincinnati, Joey Votto is following up his MVP season quite nicely so far. The Reds first baseman is batting well over .300 and has more than 20 RBI so far.

    Back in April when these teams met, Travis Wood (2-3, 5.28 ERA) started for the Reds and Chris Carpenter (1-2, 4.32 ERA) for the Cards. Wood gave up eight hits and three earned runs in 6.1 innings in a no decision. Carpenter, also in a no decision, surrendered just two hits and two earned runs in six.

    In that sixth inning, each team’s star first baseman came up big. First, Votto hit a two-run shot off of Carpenter to tie the game at 2-2. Then in the bottom half, Pujols put the Cards up 3-2 with a home run of his own. The Reds won the game however, 5-3.

    Both starters are coming off of wins in their last start. Carpenter had still been looking for his first win of the season when St. Louis beat the Cubs 6-4 on Tuesday. He even gave up 13 hits in that game. The team is 2-6 in his starts (2-2 on the road) and he has yet to really get on track this season. If you take out a one bad game against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 12, his ERA is 3.13.

    Wood and Carpenter are both starting where their numbers are worse. Wood is 1-2 with a 7.32 ERA at home as opposed to 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA on the road. Carpenter’s ERA is over two runs worse on the road versus his at home.

    Since April 26, the ‘over’ is 13-4 for St. Louis. The ‘over’ is also 5-0 in Chris Carpenter’s last five road starts against the Reds.

    The forecast looks to be about 58 degrees with a chance of a thunderstorm when the action takes place. Tim Welke will be handling the plate for the game, bringing a 5-3 'over' record into the contest along with a 6-2 advantage for vistors, including 3-0 when the visiting squad is carrying the chalk line.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    MLB Odds: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox conclude series

    The ’under’ is a perfect 5-0 in Freddy Garcia’s starting assignments.
    Not much has gone right for the Boston Red Sox this year, but it’s been so far, so good against their hated rival New York Yankees. The teams finish a three game set on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

    First pitch from Yankee Stadium will be 5:00 p.m. (PT). Boston has the pitching advantage once again with Jon Lester (4-1, 2.96 ERA) going up against Freddy Garcia (2-2, 2.61 ERA).

    Boston (18-20) still hasn’t reached .500 this season after losing its first six games. Neither the hitting (4.21 runs per game, eighth in the AL) nor pitching (4.39 team ERA, 12th in the AL) have performed as expected for the preseason pennant favorite.

    The Red Sox have at least played well against the Yanks. They took two off three at home in early April and started strong this series with a 5-4 Friday win. Clay Buchholz got the win over the ancient Bartolo Colon, the latter only starting due to Phil Hughes’ injury.

    Manager Terry Francona shifted his rotation this series, something he often does against New York. Daisuke Matsuzaka was skipped, which set up Josh Beckett to face CC Sabathia on Saturday night. That result is still pending.

    Beckett (1.99 ERA) has had a good bounce-back year, but it’s Lester who’s the team ace after averaging almost 17 wins (3.29 ERA) the last three seasons.

    The 27-year-old lefty is coming off a tough start at Toronto last Tuesday, giving up five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 7-6 loss. That was a no-decision. He had a miniscule 1.54 ERA in his six previous starts.

    Lester hasn’t faced the Yankees this year, but fared great in four starts against them last season (3-0, 2.13 ERA). He was 2-0 in New York last year, not allowing a run over 13 1/3 innings. He’s 4-1 with a career 1.99 ERA pitching at old and new Yankee Stadium.

    New York went into the second game of the series three games ahead of Boston at 20-16, but trailing Tampa Bay (23-15) by two games in the AL East. The Rays have had an incredible 22-7 surge after starting 1-8.

    Manager Joe Girardi’s guys lead the AL in runs scored (5.14 per game). That’s still below the averages from 2010 (5.30) and 2009 (5.65) when they led MLB.

    The starting staff has Sabathia (2.89 ERA) and A.J. Burnett (3.38 ERA) at the top, but the bottom guys have filled in admirably as well. That includes the journeyman Garcia, who began the year as the fifth starter.

    The 34-year-old right-hander is in his first year for the Bronx Bombers. He didn’t make his first start until April 16, pushed back for various reasons. He’s 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA at home, allowing one run over six innings in a 3-1 home win over Kansas City last Tuesday.

    Garcia pitched one inning of relief at Boston on April 10, allowing an earned run. He’s pitched effectively against Boston the last couple of years (2-0, 2.79 ERA) while pitching for the White Sox.

    The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Garcia’s starts this year. The ‘under’ is 12-4-3 in New York’s last 19 games overall.

    New York is 13-9 at home this year versus 7-7 away. Boston is just 7-11 away even after winning Friday, and 11-9 at home.

    Boston has relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler on the injured list. Set-up man Daniel Bard (3.20 ERA) hasn’t been nearly as dominant as last year (1.93 ERA), although closer Jonathan Papelbon (6-of-7 in saves. 2.87 ERA) has done well in his free agent year.

    Umpire Mike Everitt will call balls and strikes. The Red Sox are 6-1 the last seven times he’s been behind home plate. The ‘under’ is 13-6 in his last 19 overall behind the dish.

    Weather will be in the 60s with thunder showers expected. There is no rest for the weary as Boston opens a home series with Baltimore on Monday while New York starts an important two-game set in Tampa Bay.

    New York was 0-5 last year in opening games of a series after facing Boston.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Giants-Cubs play rubber match at Wrigley


      SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (22-17)

      at CHICAGO CUBS (17-21)


      First Pitch: Sunday, 2:20 p.m. EDT
      Line: San Francisco -135, Cubs +125

      After having their six-game win streak snapped in their series opener against the Cubs on Friday, the Giants got right back to their winning ways on Saturday, shutting out Chicago 3-0, in a rain-shortened affair at Wrigley Field.

      The Giants were third in the NL West and five games behind Colorado on May 2, but now hold a one-game lead over the second-place Rockies after winning nine of their last 11 games. Tim Lincecum (3-3, 2.11 ERA) gets the start for the defending champs on Sunday, and brings a 17-inning scoreless streak with him. After finishing his April 29 outing with two scoreless innings in a loss to Washington, Lincecum held the Mets to five hits and three walks over seven innings in San Francisco's 2-0 win on May 4. He then carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning against Arizona on Tuesday, but left after giving up four hits and two walks through eight, and go a no-decision in a game the Giants won 1-0 on Cody Ross' walk-off single in the ninth. San Francisco has supported Lincecum with just three runs in his last four starts. Lincecum has done very well at Wrigley Field in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his three starts.

      Carlos Zambrano (4-1, 4.35 ERA) will start for the Cubs. Zambrano made his first start after his six-week suspension last season against the Giants at Wrigley on August 9. He tied a career-high with seven walks and received a no-decision. Since then, Zambrano is 12-1 with a 2.62 ERA in his 18 starts. The Cubs are 14-4 in those starts. Zambrano is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his 10 career starts against the Giants. Marlon Byrd looks to extend his hitting streak to a career-best 16 games as he prepares to face Lincecum for the first time.

      With Lincecum’s history of success at Wrigley Field, this makes this an easy pick. I’m taking San Francisco and Lincecum to win.

      This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Giants:

      CHICAGO CUBS are 5-19 (20.8%, -16.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 3*).
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Reds go for sweep of Cardinals Sunday

        ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (22-18)

        at CINCINNATI REDS (22-17)


        First Pitch: Sunday, 1:10 p.m. EDT
        Line: St. Louis -115, Cincinnati +105, Total: 8.5

        After taking the first two games of their three-game series, the Reds will try to do something they haven’t done since June 2006 when they take on the Cardinals at the Great American Ballpark on Sunday.

        St. Louis has now lost two straight and three of four to fall out of first place in the NL Central, a half-game behind the Reds. The Cardinals will throw Chris Carpenter (1-2, 4.32 ERA) in the series finale. Carpenter has not lost in his last 12 starts against the Reds, going 10-0 with a 2.00 ERA over that span. The Cardinals are 10-2 overall in those starts, having lost the two no-decisions Carpenter had, including a 5-3 loss to the Reds on April 23. Carpenter allowed just two hits and two ER in his six innings, leaving ahead 3-2, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead and allowed three runs in the eighth inning to lose. The last time Cincinnati defeated Carpenter was on June 6, 2006 when Eric Milton and two relievers shutout the Cardinals, 7-0. Carpenter has been hit hard over his last three starts, allowing 33 hits, seven walks and 11 ER in 20 innings (2.00 WHIP), but is 1-0 over that span.

        The Reds have won eight of their last 10 games, and will counter with Travis Wood (2-3, 5.28 ERA). Wood has been either very good or very bad this season. Three times he has allowed at least six ER in a start, while he has also held opponents to two ER or fewer in four of his starts. He has done very well over his last two starts, allowing a combined two ER and 11 hits in 12.2 IP, going 1-0 in those starts. This will be Wood’s third career start against the Cardinals. He threw seven innings allowing one unearned run in getting a win against them on September 4, 2010, and received a no-decision, allowing three ER in 6.1 innings, in the Reds 5-3 over the Cardinals on April 23.

        The Reds will be looking for their first sweep over the Cardinals since September 11-13, 2007 when they won three straight against them at Great American Ballpark. I like the Reds to snap Carpenter’s streak, and defeat him for the first time since 2006. I’m taking Cincinnati, which is supported by this anti-Cardinals FoxSheets trend:

        ST. LOUIS is 9-18 (33.3%, -15.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.4, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*).
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Halladay, Hudson square off Sunday in Atlanta

          PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (25-13)

          at ATLANTA BRAVES (22-19)


          First Pitch: Sunday, 1:35 p.m. EDT
          Line: Philadelphia -115, Atlanta +105, Total: 6.5

          The Phillies complete their three-game series at Atlanta on Sunday when they send their ace Roy Halladay (5-2, 2.05 ERA) to the mound against the Braves Tim Hudson (4-3, 3.09 ERA).

          After coming from behind to win on Friday, the Phillies fell to Jair Jurrjens and the Braves 5-3 on Saturday. Halladay is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and two complete games in four starts against the Braves, all since the start of 2009 but none this season. Halladay has been spectacular this season, allowing one ER or fewer in five of his eight starts, and two ER or fewer in seven of his eight starts. He has a WHIP of 0.96 through his first eight starts this season, while striking out 66 compared to just nine walks.

          After starting the season 8-12, the Braves have won 14 of their last 21 games. Hudson is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last four starts, posting a WHIP of 0.91 over that span, which includes a one-hit shutout against the Brewers on May 4. Hudson is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA in his 19 career starts against the Phillies, which includes defeating them on April 8 when he allowed 2 ER over 7.2 IP in the Braves 6-3 over the Phillies at Atlanta.

          This is the third time that Hudson and Halladay will face each other. Hudson won April 25, 2000, helping Oakland to an 11-2 win over Toronto, while Halladay pitched a five-hitter April 21, 2010, to give Philadelphia a 2-0 win over Atlanta. Halladay is just too good right now to pick against. I’m taking Philadelphia.

          This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Phillies:

          Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=2.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (44-20 since 1997.) (68.8%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Sunday, May 15

            Score Status Pick Amount

            Seattle - 1:05 PM ET Cleveland -110 500
            Cleveland - Under 7.5 500

            St. Louis - 1:10 PM ET St. Louis -108 500
            Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

            Philadelphia - 1:35 PM ET Philadelphia -119 500
            Atlanta - Under 6.5 500

            Florida - 1:35 PM ET Florida +117 500
            Washington - Under 8 500

            Baltimore - 1:40 PM ET Baltimore +114 500
            Tampa Bay - Over 8.5 500

            NY Mets - 2:05 PM ET NY Mets -120 500
            Houston - Under 8.5 500

            Toronto - 2:10 PM ET Minnesota +122 500
            Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

            Pittsburgh - 2:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +161 500
            Milwaukee - Over 7.5 500

            LA Angels - 3:05 PM ET Texas -134 500
            Texas - Under 8.5 500

            San Diego - 3:10 PM ET San Diego +129 500
            Colorado - Over 8.5 500

            Chi. White Sox - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -155 500
            Oakland - Under 7 500

            Arizona - 4:10 PM ET Arizona -108 500
            LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

            Boston - 8:05 PM ET NY Yankees +122 500
            NY Yankees - Under 8.5 500
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              good luck, Bum!

              Comment

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