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**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:24 PM

Phillies and Braves open MLB betting series

A big reason for the Atlanta Braves returning to the postseason last year was their dominance at home, winning 56 of the 81 games at Turner Field. That record was three games better than any other major league team on its own diamond.

Home-field advantage hasn't been nearly the same for the Braves in the early portion of the 2011 schedule. Atlanta was 9-9 at 'The Ted' prior to Thursday's contest vs. the Nationals, results of which were still pending.

The Braves would certainly like to get some of that home mojo back starting with this series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta entered play Thursday sitting third in the NL East standings, five games behind Philly.

Weekend action between the division rivals begins Friday when the Braves send rookie Brandon Beachy (4-3, 2.98) to the mound against Phillies southpaw Cole Hamels (5-2, 2.83).

While the Braves are among several teams in the Senior Circuit struggling to win at home, the Phillies are enjoying life anywhere they play. Owners of a 24-12 overall mark, Philadelphia has an NL-best 11-5 record on the road.

A trio of those 11 wins away from home have come in Hamels' three road starts. Friday's assignment will be his third against the Braves this season and second at Turner Field.

Hamels' last appearance was five days ago at home opposite Atlanta with the Braves posting a 5-2 victory behind the pitching of Jair Jurrjens and three home runs, two off Hamels. Philadelphia was a 140 favorite in the game that 'pushed' the 7-run total.

Hamels and the Phils were even-money underdogs back on April 10 at Atlanta. The southpaw tossed the first seven scoreless innings of Philadelphia's 3-0 triumph. The dubya broke a 4-game losing skid for Philly in Hamels' starts at Turner Field.

Beachy will be looking to continue his overall fine rookie campaign as well as pick up his first career win in front of the home fans. The right-hander started the May 5 game in Atlanta vs. the Brewers, working six innings and allowing just one unearned run, but he didn't figure in the decision, a 2-1 Braves win.

This will be Beachy's third career start against the Phillies, the two previous assignments both coming in Atlanta and both resulting in Braves losses. He worked into the seventh of a 10-2 loss to Philadelphia on April 9, his scorecard charged with four runs and seven hits, one of those a Brian Schneider homer.

The Braves were sending outfielder Jason Heyward for an MRI on his right shoulder Thursday. He was not expected to be in the lineup for their series finale with Washington, and any extended absence would be very detrimental to Atlanta' offense.

Philadelphia could be swapping catchers on their disabled list before this series. Carlos Ruiz (back) is expected to come off the DL for Friday's contest, just in time it appears after Schneider strained a hamstring in Wednesday night's win at Florida.

Friday's first pitch comes at 4:35 p.m. (PT) under cloudy skies with a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms. Southwest winds (out to center) around 10 mph are in the forecast with a game-time temp in the mid-to-upper 70s.

The series continues through the weekend with Sunday's series finale featuring a marquee listing on the mound, Roy Halladay against Tim Hudson. Philadelphia moves on from here to open a set in St. Louis while the Braves remain home to welcome the Astros to town. Both of those series are 2-game quickies beginning Monday.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:26 PM

Umpire influence tough to cap in MLB betting

James Hoye has been among the most consistent ’under’ umps the past few seasons.
The 2011 MLB regular season is headed for the quarter pole as the honeymoon surrounding the freshness of a new year of baseball has all but worn off with the dog days of summer right around the corner.

The first 40 games or so of the season gives you a good idea of which pitchers are throwing their best stuff, which teams are clicking at the plate, and how umpire tendencies are impacting the outcome of a game.

Home plate umpires remain one of biggest factors when it comes to handicapping MLB games so having a good understanding of the size of each one’s strike zone can provide a subtle edge. This is especially true when it comes to looking for value in ‘totals.’ The one thing that the league expects from its umpires is consistency, not uniformity, so if a particular ump’s strike zone is a bit oversized, it should be that way for every game he calls.

When comparing umpires to solid plays on the ‘over’ line this season, a few that come to mind are Dale Scott, Sam Holbrook, Scott Berry and Tim McClelland. These four gentlemen have called a combined 30 games and 26 of them have gone ‘over’ the total. The average number of runs scored in those 30 games was 10.3 and the average number of home runs hit was 2.1, both numbers above the major league averages (8.4 RPG and 1.75 HR per game).

The leader of the pack would have to be Barry who has had seven of the eight games he has called go ‘over,’ the contests averaging 11.1 runs and 1.88 homers. A close second is Scott, who is also 7-1 against the total line with an average 10.9 runs a game and 2.5 homers.

The early trend for these two may not bear itself out as the season progresses given that their combined record in 2010 in relation to the ‘total’ was 38-29 'over.'

Last season’s top umpire for games going ‘over’ the total was Todd Tichenor. He had 66.7 percent of his 27 called games jump the total with an average of 10.2 runs per game. He is actually 4-3 to the 'under' this year.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are the umpires who have favored the ‘under’ line so far. Phil Cuzzi, Brian Runge, Alan Porter and James Hoye are a combined 22-4 to the low side. The average runs scored in those 28 games was 6.4, although Runge is a bit of an anomaly with an average of 8.1 runs in the seven games he has called.

The undisputed leader in this group is Hoye, who has had five of the six games he called stay ‘under’ the total with an average of just 5.3 runs and 0.83 home runs. Hoye also gets the award for consistency after 25 of the 34 games stayed ‘under’ the total in 2010 and 25 of 38 did the same in 2009.

Last season’s ‘under' king was Greg Gibson, who had an amazing 77.4 percent of his 31 games called stay ‘under’ the total with an average of 7.2 runs per game. This season four of the six games he has called have stayed ‘under’ with an average of 6.7 runs scored.

Top umpires for favoring the home team this season include Brian Knight, Doug Eddings and Lance Barksdale, who are a combined 21-2 so far. Be careful of making too much of this early record as the three wound up going a combined 53-44 for the home side last season.

Alan Porter, Jeff Kellogg and Jim Wolf have been brutal for the home team this year with a combined record of 3-18. These early numbers are also a bit misleading given that the combined record for the home team in 2010 for the trio was 38-35.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:28 PM

Friday's Triple Play

May 12, 2011

There is no shortage of quality baseball on Friday as the weekend series get underway. It opens up with the Red Sox and Yankees renewing their rivalry in the Bronx. That will get followed up the Cards heading to Cincinnati and the Rangers welcoming the Halos to town.

Red Sox at Yankees – 7:05 p.m. EDT

Boston can’t take over the lead in the American League East if they sweep this series on the road against the Yankees. The best they can do is make it a true three-horse race (can’t forget about the Rays), which is a miracle after the way the season started for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox hope that Clay Buchholz (3-3, 4.19) can get the series started right for them on Friday night. He’s looked awfully sharp in his last two starts, giving up two runs in 11.2 innings of work with eight strikeouts and three walks. Buchholz is looking for a little revenge here after getting ousted after 3.2 innings against the Bombers on April 9, allowing four earned runs in a 9-4 loss. The young hurler has gone 1-2 with a 4.42 earned run average in three road starts in 2011.

New York hand the ball to Bartolo Colon (2-1, 3.86) at Yankee Stadium. Colon has been a pleasant surprise since coming into the starting rotation, going 2-0 with a 3.81 ERA in four starts in place of Phil Hughes. He hasn’t been that great against the Red Sox, going 8-10 with an ERA of 4.13 for his career.

As bad as it looks for Colon, the recent history for the BoSox is worse. Boston has gone 2-4 in its last six games against divisional foes as a road underdog. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in that stretch as well.

Cardinals at Reds – 7:10 p.m. EDT

I would have never guessed this would be a heated rivalry but that’s what we’ve got between the Cards and Reds. At least that’s what it seems to be for Dusty Baker, who seems to think that Tony LaRussa is out to get him. Cincy is just one game back of St. Louis in the National League Central, making this a huge series.

St. Louis has decided on giving the starting duties for Game 1 of this series to Kyle Lohse (4-2, 2.24). He’s pitching almost as well as he did in his first season with the Cards in 2008. Lohse has lost his last two starts, but he only gave up one run in eight innings of a 4-0 loss at home to the Brewers on May 7. He’s just 2-3 with an ERA of 4.31 in his seven career starts against Cincinnati.

The Reds are countering with Bronson Arroyo (3-3, 3.68) on Friday. The former Red Sox hurler has come pitched well in his last five starts, but is a bit on the hard luck side with a 1-3 mark. Arroyo is lasting no fewer than 6.1 innings in his last four appearances, and has given up three or fewer runs in three of those tilts. This is a big match for Arroyo in that he has dropped three straight games against the Cardinals. His last win against St. Louis was a 7-2 decision at home on May 16 of last season.

Cincinnati comes into this contest after a six-game roadie. The Reds have lost their last two home games that immediately followed those medium-sized road trips.

Angels at Rangers – 8:05 p.m. EDT

The Halos started the year out a little sluggish, but are sitting atop the AL West. Only 1 ½-games back are the Rangers, who are really wishing Mother Nature wasn’t such a bitch after having the 7-0 lead against Oakland on Wednesday erased by a rain storm. Texas won’t have to worry too much about that since these two squads open up a three-game set.

Jared Weaver (6-2, 1.87) is the man on the mound for the Angels on Friday night. Weaver is the ace of the staff, but has not looked like one in his last two starts. He has given up seven runs in his past two appearances; Weaver allowed six total runs in his first six starts of the season. The positive for Los Angeles in this spot is that he is 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA against the Rangers for his career. That includes a complete game six-hitter for a 4-1 win as a $1.02 road pup against Texas on April 20.

Texas will be happy to get Alexi Ogando (3-0, 2.17) back on the mound for a start. Ogando was supposed to start last Sunday, but a blister on a finger of his throwing hand put him on the shelf for the day. Ogando is coming into this game after a pair of hard luck losses that saw him give up just three total earned runs in 12 innings of work. The plus side for the Rangers is that he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts at home this season.

The odds are very good that Ogando and the Rangers will be home pups against Los Angeles for this game. That’s a spot gamblers should enjoy quite a bit since Texas is 4-1 this season as a home underdog. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in all five of those matches.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:30 PM

This week's value

May 12, 2011

The baseball season is in full swing and we will be examining teams that are making moves up or falling hard and how they can make us some money by either playing on or against. This week we’ll takes a look at the teams that will be providing some good value on their side.

Detroit Tigers 20-18 +0.62 Units

The Tigers have not made a ton of money as they are barely in the black for the season. However, it is about their current play that is making Detroit turn some heads. The Tigers got off to an average start but then a seven-game losing streak put them at 12-17, eight games behind the red hot Indians. Since then, Detroit has won eight of its last nine games and has cut into the deficit by 3.5 games. The Tigers 11 road wins are tied with a few teams for second most in baseball.

The Tigers have played five fewer games at home than on the road but starting on Friday, they begin a five-game homestand. This includes three games with Kansas City, which is no longer a pushover, and a big series there could push them into solo second place in the division. Detroit was a -130 or higher favorite eight times in its first 12 games it was favored but it has been a chalk of that amount only once in the last eight times it has been listed as the favorite. That shows we can still buy low.

Cincinnati Reds 20-17 -1.21 Units

With profits in the red, Cincinnati can arguably be a team that is far from hot and should be avoided. The Reds started the season 5-0 before going on a 9-15 run that put them below .500 for the first time since May of last season. However, they have won six of their last eight games with both losses coming by a single run. Cincinnati was the second most profitable team in baseball last year and the value remains on their side this season despite a small profit loss thus far.

The Reds start a huge home series on Friday against St. Louis, another team that is playing very well. The Cardinals remain a public betting team so Cincinnati should see plenty of good lines. Following that, the Reds host the Cubs and Pirates for two games each and both of those teams have been decent on the road meaning good numbers could come Cincinnati's way again. This seven-game homestand is one where they can make a move in the National League Central so keep an eye on the Reds in the upcoming week.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:33 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

May 13, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cardinals are 12-0 since April 09, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1228.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 8-0 OU since July 21, 2010 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mariners are 0-9 since May 31, 2010 when Doug Fister starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The White Sox are 10-0 (+2.3 rpg) since 2005 in the first game of a road series when they are off a non-shutout road win in which their opponent had ten or fewer left-on-base.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Reds are 7-0 since April 11, 2010 at home after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $720.

The Tigers are 6-0 since April 29, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs win for a net profit of $655.

The Red Sox are 8-0 OU since April 20, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:35 PM

Pitchers Report - May

May 13, 2011

The running of the Kentucky Derby each year signals MLB enters its second month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining will be success, or lack of it, from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, let’s zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with June’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy and here’s hoping you pick the right ‘horse’…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arroyo, Bronson • 12-6
Is one of only three active pitchers with six straight seasons of 200 or more innings pitched. (Mark Buehrle and Dan Haren are the other two) Arroyo is known for funky looking off-speed pitches that break at odd angles and when he is good, he is very good and when he is not, you can figure that out. May qualifies as a good month for this right-hander.

Blackburn, Nick • 11-5
Has one of the better sinkers in the AL, but will on occasion only want to throw that pitch with slight variations. Blackburn is at his best when mixing in the changeup, to the chagrin of earth worms, with all the ground balls.

Cueto, Johnny • 12-4
Cincy starter is expected back this month after experiencing right biceps and triceps irritation in Spring Training. Works both sides of the plate with his fastball, but doesn’t strikeout as many batters since his slider has lost some bite.

Gallardo, Yovani • 8-4
Has not been quite as effective to start 2011; however is the ace of the Milwaukee staff and wins should start piling up for this 25-year old hurler who can dominate.

Hamels, Cole • 13-3
Now the forgotten star of the Phillies staff with so many big names, this left-hander has broken thru talk of his brittleness. He’s also smart, having added cutter he learned from Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay for out-pitch.

Harden, Rich • 10-3
Injury plagued throughout his career, Harden is presently on the DL and suffered setback on April 15, which could mean he won’t see action this month.

Hudson, Tim • 9-3
Because of age and Tommy John surgery, no longer has electric fastball, nevertheless, Hudson’s power sinker induces a large amount of ground ball outs, keeping him at high level.

Kershaw, Clayton • 10-4
Starting to fulfill promise as a youngster, this 23-year old lefty has added a slider with other knee-buckling curve and impressive mid-90’s fastball and is ready for stardom.

Marcum, Shaun • 11-2
His collection of off-speed pitches has hitters taking terrible swings and he’s averaging almost a strike an inning in Milwaukee, helping solidify the Brewers starting pitching. Getting away from AL East should only make Marcum more effective.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Braden, Dallas • 3-9
Currently on the DL with shoulder inflammation, “Mr. Perfect” is 1-1 this season with 3.00 ERA and is a control specialist. Despite lacking a blazing fastball, Braden is very confident, but has to hit his spots or will get tagged.

Floyd, Gavin • 5-10
Since posting 17-8 record in 2008, the Chicago right-hander is 21-24, however the rest of his numbers are largely the same, suggesting run support from teammates make Floyd look better or worse than he pitches record-wise.

Hernandez, Felix • 4-14
It’s a given King Felix has to be nearly perfect each start with the kind of offense Seattle has. Though still only 25, let’s hope he can play on a winning team to let his abilities shine before his skill begins to erode.

Kennedy, Ian • 3-7
If Kennedy could take same approach to the mound each time out, the possibilities exists he could win 13-15 games a year. His statistical peripherals show solid ground ball numbers, excellent strikeout to walk ratios, but mental aspects do not show up in box scores.

Masterson, Justin • 3-8
Finally starting to show why Cleveland traded for him in the first place with Boston, with a 5-0 start this season and 2.18 ERA. Two reasons why he might be better pitcher this May. First, Masterson’s control is better, walking fewer hitters and extracting a few more punch-outs and secondly, his ground ball pitching style has been helped with better Cleveland infield defense.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:38 PM

Verlander tries to lead Tigers to 6th straight win

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (20-17)

at DETROIT TIGERS (20-18)

First Pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -185, Kansas City +175, Total: 7.5

The Royals travel to Detroit on Friday for the first of a three-game series. Kansas City will throw Luke Hochevar (3-3, 4.91 ERA), while the Tigers counter with Justin Verlander (3-3, 3.16 ERA).

Despite throwing a no-hitter in his last start, Justin Verlander was anxious to face his next opponent. Verlander, who had compiled a mediocre 3.75 ERA over his first seven starts, was almost perfect during Saturday's 9-0 win at Toronto, recording his second career no-hitter - with one walk the only thing standing between him and a perfect game. "After that night was over, it was business as usual for me," said Verlander, who is 10-2 with a 2.58 ERA lifetime against Kansas City and 4-0, but with a mediocre 3.93 ERA, in the matchup at home. The Tigers are on a roll themselves, having won five straight and eight of nine after suffering a seven-game losing streak.

The Royals are coming off consecutive wins against the Yankees in New York. Luke Hochevar is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts this month. He limited Oakland to one run and four hits over seven innings but left without a decision in Saturday's 4-3 victory. The right-hander, who earned the win despite giving up four runs -- three earned -- in a 9-5 victory at Comerica Park on April 10, is 2-1 with a 7.31 ERA over three career starts in Detroit. He is 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven lifetime starts versus the Tigers.

Verlander has had great success against the Royals, and despite their strong start this season, I’m taking red-hot Detroit to win at home.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also backs the Tigers:

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (KANSAS CITY) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. (55-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.7%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:39 PM

Weaver-Ogando open 3-game set in Arlington

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (21-17)

at TEXAS RANGERS (19-18)

First Pitch: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -110, Los Angeles +100, Total: 7.5

The first-place Angels travel to Texas to take on the Rangers for the opener of a three-game series at the Ballpark in Arlington.

The Angels will throw Jered Weaver (6-2, 1.87 ERA), who has struggled and lost his past two starts after going 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in March/April. One of Weaver's two complete game victories last month came in Arlington, a six-hitter with 8 K and 0 BB, in a 4-1 victory on April 20. He followed that with a 10-strikeout shutout against Oakland five days later. However, Weaver has allowed 7 ER in 12 innings (5.25 ERA) in his past two starts, losses to the Red Sox and Indians. Weaver is 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his 21 career starts against the Rangers.

Alexi Ogando (3-0, 2.17 ERA) will get the start for the Rangers. Ogando has been spectacular in his six starts this season, striking out 27 and walking just nine, while allowing just 24 hits in 37.1 IP. He’s been even better at home with a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts in Arlington. Ogando hasn't pitched since May 3, when he gave up one run over six innings in a 4-3 loss at Seattle. He left, though, with a blister on his right index finger that forced him to miss his scheduled start Sunday. This is Ogando’s first career start against the Angels, but he did face them eight times in relief last year, throwing 7.2 shutout innings and only allowing four hits with zero walks and eight strikeouts.

The Rangers, who have had two straight off days after Wednesday’s game was rained out, will be looking to win consecutive games for the first time since April 22-24 when they swept the Royals. Although Weaver has been outstanding overall this season, I’m taking Ogando and the well-rested Rangers.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs Texas on Friday:

Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TEXAS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:40 PM

Phillies start 3-game series in Atlanta Friday

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (24-12)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (21-18)

First Pitch: Friday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -105, Atlanta -105, Total: 7

Friday in Atlanta will mark the second time in eight days that the two teams who were preseason favorites to battle for the NL East crown will square off in a key series. Last weekend in Philly the Braves took two of three from their hosts as Atlanta’s pitching staff from top to bottom proved it measured up to the Phillies’ starters and bullpen, holding the Philadelphia offense to five runs over three games. Friday night the Phils send Cole Hamels back to the hill, just five days after Atlanta beat him last Sunday night.

Friday’s game will mark the third time that Hamels (4-2, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) will have faced the Braves this season. Sunday night, which was also his last outing, he allowed five hits and three runs over seven innings, and despite taking the loss, he still struck out nine and walked just one. Hamels was hurt by the long ball Sunday, allowing two deep shots. Hamels shut down the Braves on April 10, allowing four hits over seven shutout innings (1 BB, 8 K) in helping his team earn a 3-0 victory. Hamels is facing Atlanta for the 22nd time in his career, going 10-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in these meetings.

Philly enters the contest after taking two of three from the second-place Marlins, with the final game of the series being a come-from-behind 5-3 victory over Florida. Jimmy Rollins slammed a two-out, two-run single in the ninth to complete Wednesday’s comeback. Monday night Rollins led off the game with a home run. When Rollins was re-inserted into the leadoff spot on May 3 he was hitting .271. Now he is batting .283, and since regaining his table-setter role has stolen three bases, scored six runs, and is gradually making a little bit more happen every day for a Phillies offense that has struggled to find consistency. Philly hopes to get steady No. 1 catcher Carlos Ruiz back behind the plate for this series. He has been on the DL with a sore back.

Atlanta will counter with young righty Brandon Beachy (1-1, 2.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Beachy is winless in three career starts versus Philly, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, while failing to go beyond six innings in all three outings. His last game against the Phils on April 9 did not go very well, as he was pounded for seven hits and four runs over six innings as he ended up taking the loss in a 10-2 defeat. Despite three straight quality starts this season (1.89 ERA, 0.63 WHIP), Beachy has not earned a decision in any of them. In his last outing he pitched six strong innings against Milwaukee, allowing four hits, one unearned run, and striking out a career-high nine batters. "He's just not getting the wins, but for me he's pitched well enough to have at least four wins," manager Fredi Gonzalez said of Beachy, who has a team-best 45 strikeouts.

The Braves offense has been stroking the long ball lately. In the past four games, Atlanta has launched a total of eight taters. The biggest one during that stretch was a game-tying, seventh-inning grand slam on Thursday night by Martin Prado. It helped the Braves come back and defeat the Nationals 6-5 in 10 innings at home, avoiding what would have been a season-high, three-game losing streak. Speaking of streaks, Brian McCann delivered the game-winning single versus Washington to extend his hitting streak to 12. While Hamels will have to be weary of McCann, Beachy will have to watch out for the “Flying Hawaiian.” Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino, 3-for-6 with a double off Beachy, will try to extend his hitting streak to 15 games. He is 13-for-26 with two doubles, two triples and a homer off Braves pitching in 2011.

The pick here is for Hamels to regain his mastery against the Braves and avoid losing to them twice in five days. The FoxSheets support this Philadelphia pick with these two trends.

Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (90-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) – below-average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (56-30 since 1997.) (65.1%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:42 PM

Red Sox-Yankees both look to get back on track Friday

BOSTON RED SOX (17-20)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (20-15)

First Pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -110, Boston +100, Total: 9.5

The last time that the Yankees and Red Sox met, the Bronx Bombers were 4-2, the Red Sox were 0-6, Boston free-agent acquisition Carl Crawford (who’s making a ton of money) was batting .143, and BoSox fans were having sharp objects confiscated from them. The Sox took two of three from their visitors that weekend, got over a bumpy storm or two since, and now about five weeks later, can see the Yankees in the standings from their front porch. That is the good news. The bad news is they have two teams to catch in the standings since New York this week has fallen out of first place for the first time since April 13. Tampa Bay, who began the season 1-8 has surged to take over the top spot in the division. Boston, New York and Tampa Bay in a fight for first, summer must be near in the AL East.

Friday in New York the rivals will square off again in a three-game series that has both teams bringing more than a little bit of desperation to the table. Boston (17-20) just dropped two in a row to Toronto, while the Yankees (20-15) just dropped two in a row to the Royals in a series in which Kansas City scored 15 runs in the last two games.

New York has lost six of its past nine games and will send the crafty Bartolo Colon to the hill. Colon (2-1, 3.86 ERA) has been a mini blessing this year for the Bombers, as he has provided a surprisingly reliable veteran arm in the absence of the ailing Phil Hughes. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.3 (37 K, 7 BB), and Colon is hoping that his recent success will overshadow his career efforts versus Boston. In 26 lifetime starts against the Sox, his team is 11-15, while Colon is 8-10 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. To be fair, the last time Colon started against Boston, gas prices were right around $2 per gallon, the year was 2005, and while the Charleston was not the dance of the day, 2005 was a long time ago. For some more recent history, Colon is hoping that the Sox of yesteryear do not get to him the way the 2011 Texas Rangers banged him around in his last start Saturday, when he allowed five runs and nine hits in 4.1 innings.

The Yankees offense has been up and down during this nine-game stretch. While Mark Teixeira (2 runs in past 7 games) and Alex Rodriguez (.279 slugging pct. in May) have struggled of late, Curtis Granderson is leading the team (and the league) in home runs and is tops on the team in RBI with 12 and 25 respectively, while Robinson Cano is tops with a .291 BA. A-Rod homered on Thursday for the first time in 65 at-bats, but is hitting .188 with four RBI in his last 12 games. He has a 16-game hitting streak against the BoSox in which he is batting .373 with seven homers. If he is to get well, this is the team and the time to do so.

Rodriguez and his teammates could be looking forward to seeing Clay Buchholz on the hill for the Red Sox. They Yankees are 5-1 when facing Buchholz, who is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in these six starts. Buchholz got rocked for eight hits and five runs (four earned) in just 3.2 innings in his last start against New York on April 9. Recently he has won two straight starts, including his last outing Saturday against the Twins where he pitched five innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits and fanning six before rain ultimately limited his outing. Boston is hoping that Dustin Pedroia’s bat awakens the way it did in the last series versus New York, when he posted three straight three-hit games with a homer and five RBI against the Yankees. Crawford went 1-for-15 in that series, but is now batting .356 during an 11-game hitting streak. He's hit .338 with 11 RBI in 17 games at the new Yankee Stadium.

Given the track records of the starting pitchers, expect two things from Friday‘s game: like most Yankee/ Red Sox marathons, this contest should last about an hour longer than the movie “Lawrence of Arabia,” (3:36) while the two starting pitchers will not. The pick here is for the Bombers to re-discover their bats and take the first game of this series in a likely high scoring affair. The following two highly-rated FoxSheets trends support picking New York.

Play Against - Any team (BOSTON) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more. (68-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +40.2 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season. (58-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:43 PM

Red-hot Rays open 3-game set in Baltimore

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (17-19)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (22-15)

First pitch: Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -145, Baltimore +135, Total: 8

Baltimore and Tampa have swept each other on the road already this year. The Rays get a chance for some revenge when the teams start a three-game set at Tropicana Field Friday night.

As part of their franchise-worst start to the year, the Rays began 2011 by getting swept by the O’s in Tampa. They returned the favor last weekend by pulling off a three-game sweep in Baltimore. Tampa is red hot right now, winning five of six on its recent road trip and 13 of its past 17 overall.

The Orioles have also been playing well of late. After being swept by the Rays, they swept Seattle to start off this week, including a win over Felix Hernandez on Wednesday.

Friday’s pitching matchup will be a rematch of Saturday’s game in Baltimore, with Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson going against Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie. It was a mismatch last time. Hellickson threw five shutout innings (though he did walk five) while the Rays jumped all over Guthrie for seven runs and 10 hits (including two home runs) over five. Tampa won that game 8-2. Hellickson (3-2, 3.72 ERA) leads the majors in run support with 11.39 runs per start. He also faced the Orioles in Tampa last August, his second big league start. He held them to one run and three hits over six innings in a victory.

Guthrie has been wildly inconsistent in 2011. He’s 1-5 (due to 3.48 runs per game of support, fifth-lowest in majors) with a 4.09 ERA. But among his seven starts he’s allowed two runs or fewer four times (zero runs twice), and six or more runs twice. Prior to last Saturday, he had posted a 2.09 ERA over seven starts against Tampa since 2009.

Guthrie will get a break with Rays CF B.J. Upton serving the second game of a two-game suspension. Upton launched a three-run homer off Guthrie last Saturday, and in his career he has a .937 OPS over 42 career plate appearances against the right-hander.

It’s a fairly even pitching matchup, and I think the absence of Upton tips the scales just enough to make the underdog Orioles a worthwhile pick against the money line. I’m going with Baltimore.

The FoxSheets have a four-star managerial trend that supports the O’s Friday night as well:

BUCK SHOWALTER is 17-6 (73.9%, +17.6 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive unders as the manager of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 05:44 PM

Kershaw looks to add to Diamondbacks woes

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (15-21)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (18-20)

First pitch: Friday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -175, Arizona +165, Total: 7

After a solid finish to their East coast swing, the Dodgers return home and send out ace Clayton Kershaw (4-3, 3.11 ERA) to face the reeling Diamondbacks on Friday night.

After dropping two to the Mets to start its six-game road trip, L.A. won three of its past four. That included a strong outing from Kershaw on Sunday, as he held New York to one run in 6.2 innings, striking out eight. Kershaw blew the Diamondbacks away in three starts against them last season. He went 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA against Arizona, striking out 24 and allowing just 11 hits over 19 innings.

The Diamondbacks lost four straight and five of six on their current California road trip, as the Giants finished off a sweep of Arizona on Thursday night. They’ll try to turn things around with soft-tossing lefty Joe Saunders on the mound.

Saunders is 0-4 with a 5.72 ERA, and the Diamondbacks have lost five of his seven starts this season (including all three of his road starts). Since coming over as the centerpiece-by-default of last July’s disastrous Dan Haren trade, Arizona has yet to win a road game with Saunders on the hill (0-9, with Saunders going 0-7 with a 5.05 ERA in those starts).

Saunders has held his own against the Dodgers though. After joining Arizona, he held L.A. to two runs over five innings last September, then three runs (two earned) over seven last October. He had 11 K and just 2 BB in these two starts.

Still, he’s a far cry from Kershaw. The Dodgers won 13 of their 18 games against the Diamondbacks last season, including seven of nine at Dodger Stadium. L.A. has won 18 of its past 23 home games against Arizona. That trend continues Friday night. My pick is Los Angeles.

The FoxSheets provide some more reasons to play against Arizona, including:

ARIZONA is 22-45 (32.8%, -24.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-13-2011, 06:02 PM

Friday, May 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -106 500
NY Yankees - Over 9.5 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -160 500
Cleveland - Under 7.5 500

Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Kansas City +169 500
Detroit - Under 7.5 500

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Florida +108 500
Washington - Under 8.5 500

Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -146 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8 500

St. Louis - 7:10 PM ET St. Louis +101 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Philadelphia - 7:35 PM ET Atlanta -102 500
Atlanta - Under 7 500

NY Mets - 8:05 PM ET Houston -107 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 8:05 PM ET Texas +100 500
Texas - Under 7.5 500

Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Toronto -124 500
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -154 500
Milwaukee - Under 8 500

San Diego - 8:40 PM ET San Diego +159 500
Colorado - Over 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -122 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Arizona - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -181 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6.5 500

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