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**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:04 PM

San Francisco goes for 6th straight win hosting Arizona

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (15-20)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (20-16)

First pitch: Thursday, 3:45 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -125, Arizona +115, Total: 6.5

Pitching, defense, and did we mention pitching? That’s the formula that has been at the center of the San Francisco Giants success the last several seasons. Of late, the Giants have re-kindled that formula en route to winning five straight and seven of their past eight games. On Thursday, manager Bruce Bochy will see if right-hander Matt Cain (2-2, 3.59 ERA) is able to push that win streak to six straight when he goes to the hill to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

　Cain is 7-4 in 18 career starts against Arizona with a 3.19 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has won two of his past three outings versus the D’backs including his most recent effort against them, a 5-2 decision on April 15. Cain went six innings that day, allowing just one run on four hits while striking out three. Cain has not been quite as fortunate in his past three starts, going 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. His last outing Friday versus Colorado saw him allow three runs on five hits over seven innings as he earned a no-decision. Despite his 2-2 record, Cain has thrown quality starts in six of seven outings this season.

While the Giants’ offensive performance of late (26 runs in past eight games) isn’t exactly knocking Mays and McCovey out of the record books, the hitting has been timely. Still the numbers make you wonder how has a team with its leading hitter batting just .271 (Freddy Sanchez) and its top RBI man with just 19 over a month into the season (Buster Posey) put together a win streak. Especially considering that they are at the bottom of the majors in runs scored. Did we mention that the Giants have very good pitching? San Francisco is tied for the third lowest ERA by any staff in baseball. Add to that Brian Wilson’s team-leading three wins and 12 saves, and you have a recipe for winning low-scoring, tight games. On Wednesday, the Giants displayed some more timely hitting, as they rallied from three runs down to come back and defeat Arizona 4-3. Andres Torres, fresh off the disabled list, supplied the game-winning hit, an RBI ground-rule double in the 6th inning.

Daniel Hudson (3-4, 4.47 ERA) will oppose Cain and the Giants. The 24-year-old Hudson is 2-1 in three lifetime starts against the Giants with a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In the aforementioned victory that Cain achieved versus Arizona, Hudson took the loss, allowing five runs (four earned) over six innings, walking three and striking out a whopping 10 hitters. In fact, Hudson has struck out 19 Giant batters in the last 20 innings he has pitched against the team. Hudson is Mr. Streaky these days. After having lost his first four games of the year, he has won three straight. Control has been a big part of Hudson’s recent success. In his past three wins, he has struck out 17 batters and walked just one. Contrast that with his 26-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his losses, and it’s clear that with fewer base runners and fewer walks, Hudson is hurting himself less often. Arizona will try and generate some offense for Hudson with top HR man Chris Young, and top RBI producer Stephen Drew. Run production has not been plentiful of late for the Diamondbacks. They have lost five of their past seven games and have scored four or more runs just twice in that span.

In a matchup of two lukewarm offenses and two hot pitchers, I give the slight edge to Cain and the Giants to complete the sweep at home. The following anti-Arizona FoxSheets trends support the San Francisco pick.

ARIZONA is 9-33 (21.4%, -21.0 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 3.5, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road teams (ARIZONA) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (67-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +33.9 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:05 PM

Royals try to stun Yankees again on Thursday

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (19-17)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (20-14)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: N.Y. Yankees -180, Kansas City +170, Total: 9.5

One night after gutting out an improbable win in the Bronx, the upstart Royals look to steal one more from the Yankees on Thursday night.

Falling behind 2-0 early on Wednesday night, the Royals pulled starter Vin Mazzaro after just four innings and proceeded to watch their bullpen shut out the Yankees over the next five frames. After rookie Eric Hosmer’s first big-league homer in the fourth, the Royals tied it with a run off set-up man Dave Robertson in the eighth to force extra innings. They got another in the top of the 10th, only to have closer Joakim Soria blow the save in the bottom half of the inning. But K.C. got one more off Buddy Carlyle in the 11th to get the win.

A second straight win will be a tall order with Sean O’Sullivan on the mound. One of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, O’Sullivan’s 3.41 ERA is misleading—he’s struck out 14 and walked 14 over 29 innings this year, a tell-tale sign of a subpar pitcher. He has a 2.16 ERA as a starter despite a 13-to-13 K-to-BB ratio.

O’Sullivan’s last two outings resulted in two illogical outcomes. The 23-year-old walked seven over six innings against the Twins, but still allowed only two runs in six innings. And on last Friday, he failed to strike out a batter over eight innings against Oakland, but still allowed only three runs.

After four starts and two relief appearances at home, O’Sullivan will be making his first road appearance of the year. After being dealt to the Royals last July, he has not fared well away from home. In seven road starts with K.C., he’s gone 1-4 with a 6.99 ERA. In three career starts against the Yankees, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA. Though last July, in his final appearance with the Angels, he held New York to two runs over six innings in a win in the Bronx.

The Yankees will counter with their own middling young right-hander, Ivan Nova. New York is 4-2 when Nova starts this year, and the 24-year-old is 3-1 with a 3.89 ERA as a starter. He’s been very successful of late, allowing just three earned runs over 20 innings in his past three starts. He wasn’t exactly overpowering in those outings though, striking out nine and walking seven in those 20 innings.

The Yanks have scored just three runs in each of the first two games of this series, and will likely be without All-Star 2B Robinson Cano on Thursday. Cano was beaned in the head by a Nate Adcock fastball in the fifth inning Wednesday night. A CT scan came back negative and Cano shouldn’t need a DL stint, but Eduardo Nunez (6-for-17 with four steals this year) is likely to start in his place on Thursday.

With O’Sullivan on the mound in the Bronx, that money line doesn’t favor the Yankees enough. The Royals have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors so far this year, but it won’t happen Thursday night. The Yankees bats will break out, and New York will win easily.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that shows the Royals’ strong pitching streaks don’t usually last for long:

KANSAS CITY is 8-33 (19.5%, -26.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.6, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:07 PM

Lowe tries to extend scoreless streak vs. Nats

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (18-18)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (20-18)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -175, Washington +165, Total: 7.5

The Nats have won four of five—all on the road—and on Thursday night have a chance to finish a surprising sweep in Atlanta.

Washington got two runs off Braves closer Craig Kimbrel to force extra innings on Wednesday, then torched Scott Linebrink for four runs in the 11th (including a Jayson Werth home run) to take its second straight games in Atlanta.

Tonight it will be Jordan Zimmermann (2-4, 4.10 ERA) trying to pitch them to the sweep. The right-hander is coming off a couple of solid starts, holding the Giants (at home) and Marlins (in Miami) to two runs over six innings apiece. He’s also pitched well in three career starts against Atlanta, going 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. On April 3, he allowed two earned runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves (though he also gave up an unearned run and walked three while striking out only two).

Braves starter Derek Lowe (3-3, 3.22 ERA) is looking to continue his recent dominance of the Nats. He shut out the Nationals in Washington over 5.2 innings on Opening Day, and has a personal scoreless streak of 19.2 innings against them. He faced them twice last September, shutting them out over eight innings in Atlanta and over five innings in Washington, allowing just one walk and fanning 16 in those 13 innings. Ryan Zimmerman is one Washington bat who’s given Lowe fits over the years (.851 OPS over 51 plate appearances) but he’s currently on the disabled list.

Last Friday, Lowe shut out the Phillies over six innings in a road win. I think he keeps it going against one of his favorite opponents and the Braves avoid the sweep. My pick is Atlanta.

Here’s a three-star trend from the FoxSheets that points towards a Braves win:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ATLANTA) - poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (59-15 since 1997, 79.7%, +34 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:08 PM

NY Yankees, Royals finish MLB betting series

Kansas City was tip-toeing around the .500 mark entering Wednesday’s contest with an 18-17 overall record and netting bettors a profit of 3.39 units. The Royals haven’t figured out a way to win games away from Kauffman Stadium this year, going into the middle game of this series with a 3-9 road record.

The Yankees picked up their 29th victory against the Royals in the last 35 tries at New York, capturing a 3-1 victory in Tuesday's series opener.

The Bronx Bombers hope to continue their perennial dominance of Thursday night’s opponent in the series finale, as a pair of right-handers are scheduled to do battle at Yankee Stadium with the first pitch expected to be thrown at 4:05 (PT).

New York’s bullpen is likely to have one less arm available for the third game of the series due to eight-inning man Rafael Soriano undergoing a precautionary MRI on his right elbow.

“I am going to do the MRI to make sure everything is fine,” Soriano commented. “Maybe one or two days and I’ll be back.”

The hard-throwing right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 15 appearances this season.

Yankees starting pitcher Ivan Nova (3-2, 4.08) may need to stay on the mound for a few extra outs with Soriano’s absence, which may not be a problem when looking at his 4-1 road victory last time out in Texas. The second-year right-hander allowed one run (zero earned) and just two hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings of work.

Nova will be facing the Royals for the first time in his career and has compiled a 2-1 record and 4.30 ERA in four home outings this season. New York is also 9-3 in his last 12 starts overall.

The reality of being a small-market club with payroll limitations has started to catch up with Kansas City, dropping three of its last four games. The offense has scored just nine runs over that span heading into Wednesday. Royals manager Ned Yost broke down the team’s opening loss on a six-game road trip in simple terms.

“The difference in the game was they got the bases loaded and put the ball in play,” Yost stated. “And we got the bases loaded and didn’t.”

Right-hander Sean O’Sullivan (1-2, 3.41) will look to bounce back from a heartbreaking 3-2 home loss last time out, allowing three runs and five hits over eight innings against Oakland. He will be making his first road start of the year, as his first six outings (four starts) were at Kauffman Stadium.

O’Sullivan is set to make his fourth career start against the Yankees, bringing in a 1-2 mark and 6.06 ERA, surrendering six home runs in just 16 1/3 frames.

Home plate umpire Brian O’Nora is likely to be adored by the Yankees’ faithful due to home teams winning six of his seven assignments behind the dish thus far in 2011. New York is also 9-2 in its last 11 games with O’Nora calling balls and strikes.

Weather forecasts suggest a game-time temperature in the mid-60s in the Bronx with a southeasterly wind of 5-10 mph.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:13 PM

NHL Odds: Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks

If you don't learn from your mistakes, you're bound to repeat them.

It was only the grace of a single stroke of genius that kept the Vancouver Canucks from being the fourth team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 series lead in a best-of-seven series. They survived and went on to have a relatively easy 6-game series against the Nashville Predators to make the Western Conference Finals.

Now it is the San Jose Sharks who are on the ropes. Just like the Canucks, the Sharks have no Stanley Cups to their credit and an absolutely atrocious postseason history. They took a 3-0 series lead against the Detroit Red Wings, and now, after blowing their first three chances at knocking the boys from Hockeytown out of the postseason, they are down to just one more opportunity in Game 7 on Thursday night at HP Pavilion.

The puck drops at 6:00 p.m. (PT), and the Versus Network will have coverage of the NHL playoff betting festivities.

There is one major difference between the way that the Canucks blew a 3-0 series lead and the way that the Sharks have done it. Vancouver had absolutely no shot in either Game 4 or Game 5, as the Chicago Blackhawks absolutely railroaded both efforts.

San Jose came from three goals behind against the Red Wings in Game 4 to tie things up before losing it late in the third period, then blew a 3-1 lead early in the third period of Game 5. Finally, the Sharks took a 1-0 lead early in the third period in Game 6 before blowing that as well with Detroit coming away with a 3-1 triumph.

Needless to say, the Wings have been scoring goals and they've been scoring them in bunches. They have scored three goals in a period in three straight games to tie this series. That means that nine of the 11 goals scored in the last three games have come in 20-minute stretches.

Aside from those periods, Antti Niemi has been great. He stopped all 32 shots in the first two periods of Game 6, stopped 15 of the 16 shots that he faced in the first two periods in Game 5, and stopped 22 of the last 23 shots he faced in the second and third periods of Game 4.

With just one more lapse though, Niemi's season could be over, and the Sharks could go down in very dubious history. There are only three teams that have ever blown a 3-0 series lead in NHL betting action in the playoffs, and San Jose is trying to avoid becoming the fourth.

Don't just blame Niemi, though. Patrick Marleau had 37 goals and 36 assists in the regular season. In this series, he doesn't have a single point. Joe Thornton scored 21 goals in the regular season plus two in the first round of the playoffs. He's yet to light the lamp in this series.

Dany Heatley netted 26 goals in the regular season but just one in this series. Joe Pavelski tallied 66 points in 74 regular season games. In this round, he's got three points in six games.

This just doesn't cut it for the Sharks who are 130 favorites on the NHL odds to take down Game 7 and to move on to the Western Conference Finals. But this is nowhere near the number that we expect to see from a team that has gone 28-14-5 this year at home.

The 'total' has opened at 5½ with the 'over' coming in at minus 105.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:13 PM

Sharks try to avoid 4th straight loss in Game 7

DETROIT RED WINGS

at SAN JOSE SHARKS

NHL Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Puck drops: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Jose -130, Detroit +110, Total: 5.5

For the second time this postseason and the third time in the past two years, a series has been pushed to a seventh game when a team was trailing three games to none. This time it’s the Detroit Red Wings who have the chance to make history. The Red Wings were the very first team to fall victim to losing four straight when up 3-0, when they lost the final four games to Toronto in the 1942 Stanley Cup Finals. Overall this is the eighth time a team has forced a Game 7 when trailing 3-0, and only three teams have won Game 7 -- the aforementioned Maple Leafs in 1942, the Islanders in 1975, and the Flyers last season.

Trailing 1-0 with 10:00 left in their season, the Wings were able to rally from down a goal and avoid elimination for the second consecutive game. The Wings became the first team in NHL history to force a Game 7 by winning consecutive games—specifically Games 5 and 6—in which they trailed in the third period. Valtteri Filppula finally broke through for Detroit, scoring the GW goal with under eight minutes remaining and assisting on the tying goal. It was Filppula’s first goal and points of this series. Now the Wings have a chance to make history, and all the breaks and bounces that went the Sharks way in the first three games, have gone Detroit’s way the past three games. The Wings fired 45 shots on goal in Game 6, the most they have had in the postseason. Antti Niemi prevented Tuesday’s contest from being a blowout, and if Detroit is allowed to pepper the net with shots like it did in Game 6, this team will make history.

Another game, another zero for Partick Marleau. After scoring two goals and registering two assists in the Sharks’ five-game series win over the Wings last season, Marleau has no points and is a minus-1 in this series. The Sharks had a golden chance to eliminate Detroit in Game 5 when they blew a two-goal, third-period lead, and allowed three unanswered goals in the final 18 minutes. They played like a shocked team in Game 6, getting knocked around the ice and outshot by 21 shots. Now they need to regroup or risk the humiliation of joining just two other teams in NHL history in blowing a 3-0 series lead. The good news for San Jose is that Niemi was spectacular in Game 6 after showing some bad signs in Game 5. If he repeats his performance, the Sharks will have a good chance to win. However, they need to shore up their defensive play and not let him face the barrage of shots he did in Game 6. The Sharks also need better play from Joe Thornton, who after getting three assists in Game 3, has just one assist and has a minus-3 rating in the past three games.

The fans at the Shark Tank should be rocking, but if they fall behind early, they might sit on their hands until something good happens. San Jose is 4-2 all-time in Game 7, while Detroit is 13-8 all-time in Game 7. I picked the Wings to win this series at the start and despite falling behind 3-0, didn’t change my tune. I like Detroit to make history and win Game 7 and open the Western Conference Finals in Vancouver this weekend.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick the Red Wings.

DETROIT is 20-11 ATS (64.5%, +7.8 Units) in road games off a win or tie in their previous game this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.4, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*).

DETROIT is 27-17 ATS (61.4%, +8.5 Units) in a road game where the total is 5.5 this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:24 PM

Thursday, May 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 9:00 PM ET San Jose -125 500
San Jose - Under 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 05-12-2011, 07:55 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/12/11 3-*0-*0 100.00% +*1530 Detail

Thursday, May 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Mets 5 Top 6 NY Mets +163 500
Colorado 2 Under 8 500

Arizona 2 Final San Francisco -138 500
San Francisco 3 Under 7 500

Seattle 0 Bot 0 Baltimore -150 500
Baltimore 0 Over 7.5 500

Kansas City 0 Bot 0 NY Yankees -190 500
NY Yankees 0 Under 9.5 500

LA Dodgers 0 Bot 0 LA Dodgers +115 500
Pittsburgh 0 Under 7.5 500

Washington 0 Bot 0 Washington +166 500
Atlanta 0 Under 7.5 500

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