The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Afternoon Action

May 10, 2011


Gamblers have 15 games on the MLB docket Wednesday, including five that’ll be played in the afternoon. Let’s take a look at a pair of these matchups and more.

**A’s at Rangers**

--Oakland (19-17, -35) won the series opener at Texas by a 7-2 count Monday night as a plus-107 underdog. Josh Willingham was the offensive catalyst with a three-run homer and five RBIs. Trevor Cahill worked seven strong innings to improve to 6-0 with a miniscule 1.72 ERA. The left-hander, who has won 24 of his last 32 decisions, fanned seven Rangers and walked just one.

--Texas (18-18, -211) went into Tuesday’s play in third place in the American League West, two games back of the loop-leading Angels and one game behind second-place Oakland.

--Most betting shops opened the Rangers as minus-115 favorites with a total of 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115). Texas can be had on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a monster return in the plus-180 range (risk $100 to win $180).

--Oakland LHP Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 2.68) has compiled a 4-1 record and 2.18 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Rangers. Gonzalez worked seven innings in his last outing, a 3-2 win at Kansas City.

--Texas LHP Matt Harrison (3-4, 4.35) has been getting shelled recently, going 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA his last three times out. Harrison raced out to a 3-0 record after three starts but has dropped four consecutive decisions.

--Texas owns records of 12-8 at home, 7-7 in day games and 6-6 versus left-handers.

--Oakland has played its best baseball on the road, against lefties and in the day time. The A’s are 11-9 on the road, 9-3 versus southpaws and 10-4 in day games.

--The ‘under’ is 4-3 in Harrison’s seven starts but is a more lucrative 3-1 in his home outings. The Rangers have watched the ‘’over’ go 19-15 overall, 13-7 in their home games.

--The ‘under’ is 20-15 overall for the A’s, 13-7 in their road games.

--Harrison will throw the first pitch from Arlington at 2:05 p.m. Eastern.

**Mets at Rockies**

--New York (15-20, -500) is buried in the NL East cellar, 8 ½ games back of first-place Philadelphia going into Tuesday’s action. The Mets saw their three-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 4-2 loss at home to the Dodgers. They flew into Denver on Sunday night and promptly dropped the series opener by a 2-1 count Monday.

--Colorado (19-14, +57) prevailed Monday thanks to a tie-breaking homer from Chris Iannetta in the seventh inning. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the Rockies, who got a solid starting effort from Jhoulys Chacin (6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER). Huston Street worked the ninth for his 12th save in 13 chances this year.

--Colorado took a 1 ½-game lead over San Francisco in the NL West standings going into Tuesday’s tilt. The Rockies were 8-6 at home in Coors Field.

--Ubaldo Jimenez (0-2, 5.88) will get the ball Wednesday afternoon in hopes of finally returning to the fabulous form he displayed in 2010 when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA. The fifth-year right-hander is 2-2 with a 2.50 career ERA against the Mets.

--Jonathon Niese (1-4, 4.71) took the loss in an April 13 defeat against Colorado back in Flushing, giving up five earned runs and seven hits over six innings of work. The southpaw is 0-2 with a 5.55 lifetime ERA against the Rockies.

--Terry Collins’ squad is 7-9 on the road, 5-7 in day games and 8-17 versus the right-handed pitching.

--Colorado has posted a 7-4 record in day games and a 7-3 mark against lefties.

--Most spots have installed the Rockies as minus-170 favorites with a total of eight ‘over’ (minus-120). They are plus-120 on the run line (risk $100 to win $120).

--The 'over' is 20-13 overall for the Mets even though the 'under' has cashed in their last three games. They have seen the 'over' go 8-7 in their road games.

--Colorado has also seen three straight 'unders,' but the 'over' is 18-14 overall for the Rockies, 8-6 in their home games.

--The first pitch in the Mile High City is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

3 Squads on the Rise

May 10, 2011


The MLB season is a month in the books and there have been some surprising early season results. Here are three teams that appear to have fallen short of expectations so far this season but will be facing favorable schedules in the coming weeks that could present opportunities for a rise in the standings. Be warned that these are quality teams that have been underperforming and value will be on these squads in the next few weeks.

Milwaukee Brewers:

The Brewers entered 2011 with high expectations, eschewing trade offers on soon-to-be free agent Prince Fielder and making a splash with a big trade for Zack Greinke as well as an underrated signing of Shaun Marcum. Milwaukee looked like a serious contender in the National League Central. The Brewers got as good of starting pitching as they could have expected in the opening month with Marcum and Randy Wolf pitching well and youngsters Marco Estrada and Chris Narveson pitching well. The weak link so far has been Yovani Gallardo but he is capable of being an elite pitcher.

On offense the stars Fielder and Ryan Braun had terrific starts to carry the offense and this looked like a team that could compete with anyone, except the Brewers continued to lose close games and ground in the standings. The Brewers sit towards the bottom of the division despite some promising performances but the schedule will provide a boost in the coming weeks as well as the return of Corey Hart and Greinke from the DL.

Milwaukee is just 15-20 but the Brewers have gone 9-5 at home and 6-15 on the road. Milwaukee has already had to play road series against some of the top teams in the NL playing the Reds, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals away from home. The second half of May should be a time to shine for Milwaukee however. This week the Brewers opened up a stretch of 19 games with 15 of those games at home. Five of the next six series are against teams with losing records as well. This is the time for Milwaukee to pick up some wins and get back into the division race.

The June schedule is daunting with a lot of road games and interleague match-ups with the several AL East teams but with the schedule in the next few weeks the Brewers pitching should continue to provide excellent starts and the lineup will have an opportunity to get on a roll. If not management may have to consider making some moves even though Milwaukee seemed ‘all in’ this season.

Minnesota Twins:

The Twins were expected to be American League Central contenders as they have been a consistently successful team in the last several years. It has been a very tough first month for Minnesota however as a rash of injuries has depleted the club and several veterans have underperformed. Minnesota is last in baseball in runs scored and run differential and honestly the team is fortunate to only be 12-21 on the season as it has been a very rough year.

Sitting 10 games back in the standings is depressing but most expect the Indians to fall back to the pack at some point and the schedule will improve dramatically in the coming weeks. Minnesota has played 23 road games and just ten home games at this point in the season, by far the fewest in baseball and keep in mind Minnesota was the best home team in the AL last season at 53-28. The schedule has featured tough competition as well with the Twins playing 21 games against the AL East already this season, more than any AL East team has faced.

There are only two winning teams left on the May schedule for the Twins so there should be an opportunity to get back in the picture in the coming weeks. The upcoming interleague schedule is also pretty manageable with NL West teams on the schedule sans Colorado and the rivalry match-ups with Milwaukee. The Twins are still on the road a great deal in June but July will feature a very home heavy start with 18 of the first 22 games at home surrounding the All Star Break. The biggest key will be getting healthy however and with Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Jim Thome, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka all likely to come off the DL in the next month the lineup should become much more productive. The pitching has not been that bad either as Scott Baker and Brian Duensing have pitched well. Nick Blackburn has also made several solid outings despite a few hiccups. Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano will be the key to turning around the rotation however as both have failed to come close to last season’s numbers, no-hitter withstanding.

San Francisco Giants:

The World Series run for San Francisco last season certainly felt like a little bit of a fluke. Everyone knows the Giants have an excellent pitching staff but the light-hitting offense seemed to come through with several big games from unlikely heroes to complete the improbable run. Most did not have the Giants winning the National League West in spring training predictions and it was not difficult to agree with the assessment.

The Giants have been quiet early in 2011 but they are lurking as a force to be reckoned with in the coming months. San Francisco is just 18-16 at this point in the season but they are sitting right behind the Rockies in the division. San Francisco has played only twelve home games to date and the remaining May schedule also has the Giants on the road a great deal including long trips to the Midwest. Watch out for the Giants in June, however, with a big stretch of home games and less than formidable opposition.

With the elite starting pitching the Giants will be very tough to beat in interleague play and getting to face AL Central teams should also help the cause. The July schedule is also favorable with a heavy dose of the Padres and Mets as well as mostly home games. None of the starters for the Giants have been overly sharp so far this season but they all have pitched better than their records indicate and the unit could be on the verge of a nice run, especially with some of the early season bullpen issues appearing to be cleared up. The offensive production for the Giants is also bound to go up with a couple of key bats recently returning from injury and a few young players gaining experience. The Giants also will likely be in the market for an upgrade via trade with Jose Reyes rumored as a possible target. Look for San Francisco to continue to slowly gain steam in the National League and this is a team that can gain some separation by the All Star break.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Notes

May 9, 2011


You have to love the story of the Rays prospect Brandon Guyer in the same sense that we loved the plight of Moonlight Graham in ’Field of Dreams’. Guyer, a 25-year-old outfielder, was called up from the minors last week after starting pitcher Jeff Niemann went on the disabled list because the Rays thought B.J. Upton might be suspended and wanted fill the possible hole.

Upton put in an appeal and wasn’t suspended, but the Rays inserted Guyer into the starting lineup for Friday’s game against the Orioles anyway. In his first major league at-bat, Guyer hit a home run and ended the night 1-for-3. Now that’s how you make a first impression. Guyer was one of the key players received in the Matt Garza trade with the Cubs. After a great first month at Durham where he was smoking the ball, he had to be thinking he was up ‘in the show’ to stay.

Guyer didn’t play Saturday, which wasn’t alarming because Joe Maddon constantly shuffles his lineups around utilizing his entire bench as starters. But on Sunday morning, before their game, Guyer was informed he was being sent back down to Durham because they needed a pitcher. Maddon said he’s sure Guyer will be back up and make an impact with the team, but you never know. At least his cup of coffee in the majors was of the bold and strong flavored variety.

Phenomenal Phillies

The Phillies may have had a set back when pitcher Roy Oswalt went on the DL last week, but don’t feel too sorry for the team tied for the best record in baseball. Oswalt’s replacement, Vince Worley, has fit right in and has dominated his two starts going 2-0 and allowing only one run.

The Phillies also have a couple of amazing trends going right now. They are 10-0 this season in day games and have gone 9-1 against lefties. They play two day games this weekend against the Braves, but won’t face any lefties against either the Marlins or Braves.

The Marlins are still nipping at the Phillies in the NL East, but unlike the Phillies, they don’t play at their best in day games. Florida’s win Sunday was only their third day win in eight games, making them a really dangerous night club going 17-8.

Definitely Not a Number One

Many thought Cliff Lee was crazy for not taking the big New York money, opting to take less and pitch in Philadelphia with all kinds of reasons given such as his wife didn’t like the city. But the real reason was him probably not wanting to be so visible in the brightest spotlight of such a big contract.

Lee has lost his last three starts, yet has remained out of the storylines because of how well the team is doing. He doesn’t have the weight of the team on him, letting Roy Halladay handle that department. Although Lee has pitched very well in those three losses, you have to believe the New York media wouldn’t have been so kind to Lee in the same situation which makes his move to Philly look like the smartest thing he could have done.

Run-Lines

The run-line can be a nice way to pull some edge back to the player in the right spots, but certain teams should almost always be advised to stay away from. The Royals have played in 14 one-runs games this season, winning nine of them, while Reds lead the NL with 13 one-run games, only winning six of them. The best teams to be on or against on the run-line are the Orioles and Tigers who have each only been involved in five one-run games.

Power Outage

We’re seeing the lowest home run ratio in baseball since 1992 with pitchers quickly getting ahead in the count and showing no fear like we saw through an era that seems to have just passed us by in 2009. The last two seasons have seen batting averages and home runs decline while also seeing ERA's drop. This has become a pitchers game again and more emphasis than ever should be put on the pitchers and bullpens when it comes to handicapping the games.

Tigers Ready the Growl

After a sluggish start that carried through last week with a seven-game losing streak, the Detroit Tigers might be a team we can expect to start coming around. They’ve won five of their last six through Sunday and most of that can be attributed to good starting pitching.

Justin Verlander (3-3) has been getting all the headlines after throwing a no-hitter last week, but the real ace of the staff has been Max Scherzer (5-0), who just wins. The pitcher that has really made them tough to beat in a series now is veteran Brad Penny (3-3), who has been outstanding over his last four starts going 3-1 allowing two runs or less in the three wins.

If Rick Porcello (2-2) can stay .500 and give them innings and Phil Coke (1-5) can start showing some of that promise, Detroit should be able to make a good run at the Indians for the division quickly. The Tigers are currently 30/1 to win the World Series at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

The Bucs Don’t Stop Here

Calling a .500 record somewhat of accomplishment on May 8 may not be a big deal for most teams, but for Pittsburgh, they’ll take it. The Bucs haven’t had a winning record since 1992, the last of their three straight NL East titles, and also last year of Barry Bonds in the steel city. After winning their home series from the Astros on Sunday, the Pirates went to 17-17 and tied their season high with a two-game winning streak. It’s been six years since the Pirates have been .500 this late, and it’s only May.

If it weren’t for the Marlins (0-3 record against), Brewers (0-2) and Rockies (1-4), Pittsburgh would be starting a catch phrase, or cling to a song for this year’s version of the team. Even though two games in a row doesn’t sound like much, it’s when the Pirates win them that matters, like the front and back end of three-game series. The key to their success thus far has been terrific play on the road, winning four of five road series. Their win Sunday was their second home series conquest of the season.

This week the Pirates welcome the lackluster Dodgers for a four-game set before traveling to Milwaukee, who has dominated Pittsburgh. The Brewers are 48-17 against the Pirates since 2007, including the two-game sweep in April.

Those of you thinking that this could be the Pirates first World Series win since 1979, check out the 300/1 odds offered at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Injuries

Welcome back Jake Peavy! Wednesday looks to be the day 2007 Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy makes his return to the rotation for White Sox. He threw over 100 pitches in a rehab assignment last Thursday and had no pain. For some bettors, they may be happy to see Peavy back as well or at least for his first start.

Pitchers coming back from an injury can be a great spot to bet against them, as was the case last week with Zack Greinke. Some pitchers take it to the extreme when they come back like Ubaldo Jimenez has in losing all three of his starts since returning to the Rockies rotation. Jimenez pitched very well his last time out which may put a stop to that gravy train.

Others, like the Reds Johnny Ceuto, have come back strong. In Sunday’s 2-0 win at Wrigley Field, Cueto didn’t allow a run in six innings of work after struggling somewhat in four previous minor league rehab appearances.

Rangers OF Josh Hamilton is coming back in two weeks. He‘s been swinging the bat and is ahead of the timetable set. He went on the disabled list Apr. 13 and was then expected to come back in six to eight weeks. The Rangers were 9-1 when he went on DL and are 9-16 without him. Over that losing stretch, it hasn't helped that Nelson Cruz has also been banged up which forced the Rangers to put him on the 15-day DL on Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

Oakland A's, Texas close MLB betting series

They're not pushing the panic button in the Lone Star State yet, but things are getting a bit dicey for the defending American League champs.

Texas closes out a 3-game series with the Oakland Athletics when the two division rivals meet in a Wednesday matinee at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The 11:05 a.m. (PT) start is a mound battle between southpaws Gio Gonzalez of the A's and Matt Harrison for Texas.

Monday's series opener held the promise of a solid pitching matchup, and it would've been had the Rangers been able figure out a way to pitch around Josh Willingham. The Oakland outfielder drove in five runs, three on a 3rd-inning bomb to left off Texas starter CJ Wilson, and Trevor Cahill won his fifth consecutive start with seven strong innings in the 7-2 A's victory.

The Rangers were slight 115 favorites in the contest, dropping their fourth in five games and 11th in a 15-game stretch to fall to .500 on the season (18-18). It left Texas 1-3 on the current homestand entering Tuesday's game which once again found the Rangers 115 chalk (result pending).

Oakland's victory on Monday pushed the A's (19-17) within a game of the Angels who lead the AL West standings.

Despite missing 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton the past month and now doing without Nelson Cruz, Texas' offense continues to rank near the top of the American League in several categories. The Rangers are fourth in scoring, 4.72 runs per game, second in homers (41) and tied for second with a .756 OPS.

The mound, however, has been a problem with the staff ERA creeping up (4.16, ninth in the AL) and Rangers arms serving up an AL-worst 45 long balls. Harrison (3-4, 4.35) will try to help turn that around as well as end his own personal 4-game losing skid when he takes the hill Wednesday.

The left-hander pitched alright in his most recent start, allowing the Yankees just four hits and two earned runs in six innings last Friday night. But a season-high five walks helped do him in, along with Rangers bats being stymied by Ivan Nova and the New York bullpen.

Gonzalez (4-3, 2.68) knows all about not getting run support with Oakland's lineup scoring just 21 runs in his seven starts, 14 of those coming in two outings. He'll be looking for his third straight win with this assignment and sixth quality start of the year.

The two lefties will be going head-to-head for a second time this season, the first time in Oakland for the middle game between the clubs a couple of weekends back. Gonzalez worked into the seventh and allowed two runs while striking out seven; Harrison never made it out of the second inning, charged with four runs in the 7-2 A's victory as 130 favorites.

The Rangers and Athletics are mirror images of each other as far as their totals go. Texas was 20-15-1 to the 'over' with Oakland 20-15-1 'under' before Tuesday's game. Jumping the number has been the norm for these two teams when playing at Rangers Ballpark. Monday's contest marked the seventh time for the 'over' to cash in the last 10 meetings between the clubs in Texas.

Greg Gibson is scheduled to work the plate in the series finale, bringing a 4-2-1 'under' record into the contest. He was 25-7-4 that direction in 2010.

There's really no telling on the weather for this game, tornadic activity could spring up or it could simply be a partly cloudy, rather cool day for this time of year in Texas with a high in the low-80s. Officially, there's a 50 percent chance of rain with south winds around 15 mph (in from right).

Both teams take Thursday off before opening home series over the weekend. Friday the 13th finds the A's hosting the ChiSox to begin a strange 8-game homestand against three different teams, a pair of 2-game quickies tacked on next week.

Texas ends its 9-game homestand with the first of three against the Angels. The Rangers then depart for an equally strange 3-city, 8-game roadie that concludes with an interleague set in Philadelphia (May 20-22).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to play the third game of a four-game set at PNC Park on Wednesday night with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT).

Los Angeles had dropped three of its first four games of a seven-game road trip before Tuesday's contest, including a 4-1 loss on Monday night. The Dodgers were 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position and lead the majors with 272 runners left on base in 36 games.

The Dodgers have still enjoyed tremendous success when facing the Pirates over the last 10 seasons, coming into the series with a 51-22 record against them since the start of the 2001 season. Los Angeles last lost a season series to Pittsburgh in 2000.

Dodgers starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (3-3, 3.69) will be making his eighth start of the year and enters off a 6-3 road loss to the Mets. He allowed five runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings of work, while allowing two home runs. The right-hander has served up seven home runs thus far in 2011, nearly half of his total (15) from a year ago.

Kuroda has posted a 3-1 record and 2.32 ERA in five career starts versus Pittsburgh, which includes a 1-1 mark and 2.45 ERA in two outings at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh had won a season-high three straight games after the series-opening victory and has compiled a 13-10 record over the last 23 games. The recent hot streak has provided the club an improved start over its 15-20 record after 35 games during the 2010 season.

The Pirates have also won each of the last two season series against the Dodgers at PNC Park, going 6-2 in the last eight games played at the venue.

Pirates left-hander Paul Maholm (1-4, 3.68) will try to continue the club’s recent run of strong starting pitching, as the staff has gone 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA in the last eight games. Even a quality start may not be enough to secure a victory when finding that Pittsburgh is 1-6 in his seven outings.

Maholm also brings in a less-than-desirable 0-4 record and 5.65 ERA in seven career starts versus the Dodgers. Control has been his downfall against Los Angeles, issuing 20 free passes and collecting just 18 strikeouts in 43 innings.

Home plate umpire Jim Reynolds may be another obstacle for the hosts to overcome, as the Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six games with him behind the dish. To make matters worse, Los Angeles has won both of Kuroda’s starts with Reynolds calling balls and strikes.

Totals players will focus on the ‘over’ being 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in Pittsburgh prior to Tuesday. The trend gains further strength due to the teams climbing over the number in five of Maholm’s last six starts versus the Dodgers.

Weather forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70’s with a easterly breeze of 5-10 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Chicago Cubs, Cardinals at Wrigley

Two huge rivals in the National League Central face each other as the St. Louis Cardinals continue their series against the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field. The action will air on ESPN Wednesday night at 5:00 (PT).

The series got underway on Tuesday with the Cardinals slight 115 favorites on the Don Best odds screen in a big-name pitching matchup between St. Louis' Chris Carpenter and Chicago's Carloz Zambrano.

Game 2 is not exactly a marquee pitching matchup, though Cubs starter Matt Garza (1-4, 4.43 ERA) came off a nice year in 2010 for the Tampa Bay Rays. However, this is not last year.

April 2010 saw Garza start off 4-1. In his first year in the Windy City, he has started in the exact opposite direction.

The Cubs are 2-5 overall in his seven starts this season, 1-3 at home.

St. Louis starter Jake Westbrook (2-2, 6.14 ERA) may not have impressive numbers thus far, but in his last three starts St. Louis is 3-0 and he has given up a total of five earned runs in the 18 1/3-inning stretch.

Westbrook stood tall in his last start against Florida ace Josh Johnson. While he ended up with a no decision, the Cardinals got the win.

Cardinals star first baseman Albert Pujols had an offseason of contract disputes. Whether or not that has affected his play, he has started this year .082 points off of his career batting average. Of course, it isn’t easy to hit .330, but stars like Pujols are set to pretty high standards.

Going back to that Westbrook start against the Marlins, Pujols enjoyed one of his better games of the season, reaching base four times with three hits and a walk hitting 3-for-3 and scoring on Lance Berkman's game-winning blast.

One interesting tidbit to note is how each pitcher has performed in night games this season. Westbrook is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA while Garza is 0-3 with an ERA of 5.60.

As for the 'over/under,' something’s got to give. In each starting pitcher’s last seven games, they are trending in opposite directions with the same record. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in Westbrook’s last seven starts while the ‘under’ is 5-2 in Garza’s last seven starts.

A couple of Garza's games, however, saw the Cubs fail to score. Chicago has been shut out three times this season, twice when Garza was the starter. The Cards have only been shut out once.

It looks to be about 72 degrees in Chicago with winds out of the southeast at 5-10 mph. The weatherman is calling for a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 1:10 PM ET Minnesota -107 500
Minnesota - Over 8 500

San Diego - 1:10 PM ET Milwaukee -130 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

Cincinnati - 2:05 PM ET Houston +105 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Oakland - 2:05 PM ET Oakland +102 500
Texas - Under 8.5 500

NY Mets - 3:10 PM ET NY Mets +155 500
Colorado - Under 8 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle -130 500
Baltimore - Over 7.5 500

Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -190 500
NY Yankees -

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +112 500
Cleveland - Under 8 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -103 500
Pittsburgh - Under 7.5 500

Boston - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +118 500
Toronto - Over 9 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +189 500
Atlanta - Under 7.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Florida +106 500
Florida - Over 7 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis +116 500
Chi. Cubs -

Chi. White Sox - 10:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +101 500
LA Angels - Over 8 500

Arizona - 10:15 PM ET Arizona +151 500
San Francisco - Under 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Peavy makes season debut Wednesday vs. Angels


CHICAGO WHITE SOX (14-23)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (21-16)


First Pitch: Wednesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -105, Los Angeles -105

Former Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy makes his long-awaited return to the mound Wednesday night in the finale of a three-game set against the Angels. Peavy hasn’t pitched since July 6, 2010 when the lat muscle detached from the back of his throwing shoulder in a game versus these same Angels.

Peavy underwent ground-breaking surgery to repair the tendon connecting the lat to the upper arm, but has suffered some setbacks during his recovery with rotator cuff tendinitis and scar tissue. However, he threw 100 pitches (71 strikes) at Triple-A Charlotte Thursday, and finally looks healthy. In 17 starts last year, Peavy was 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA, which was his worst mark since his 2002 rookie year. In his other start against L.A. in 2010, Peavy gave up eight hits and six runs in six innings, but struck out eight batters in a 6-5 loss to the Angels.

The Angels counter Peavy with 21-year-old rookie Tyler Chatwood (2-1, 4.08 ERA) who is coming off the best outing of his young career. Chatwood allowed just two hits and one run in eight innings Friday against Cleveland, with five walks and five strikeouts. This was quite an improvement after allowing five runs in the first inning on May 1 at Tampa Bay. This will be Chatwood’s second start against the White Sox. He allowed one run on five hits in seven innings in that April 16 meeting in Chicago, as the Angels won 7-2.

Chicago won its third straight game 8-0 in Monday’s opener, but L.A. stopped the win streak and evened the series Tuesday with a 6-2 win. The White Sox have played well at Angel Stadium recently, going 7-4 over the past three seasons, but the Angels have won four of the five meetings overall in 2011. With an even money line and the uncertainty of Peavy’s return, I’m taking Los Angeles to get the win behind another strong outing from Chatwood.

The FoxSheets show two more trends supporting the Angels:

LA ANGELS are 41-27 (60.3%, +17.6 Units) against the money line vs. a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*).

CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 9-18 (33.3%, -11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was CHICAGO WHITE SOX 3.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals-Cubs meet again Wednesday at Wrigley


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (21-15)

at CHICAGO CUBS (15-19)


First Pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -120, St. Louis +110

The Cubs try to even the series with rival St. Louis when the teams meet Wednesday night at Wrigley Field. Chicago could be experiencing some wet weather as isolated thunderstorms are expected to arrive in the afternoon and linger on through the night.

The Cardinals took Tuesday’s series opener 6-4 with the winning runs scoring on a Daniel Descalso two-run single in the eighth off Kerry Wood. St. Louis has now won four of five and is 9-4 in its past 13 games. The Cards played without manager Tony La Russa who will miss at least the next five games after being diagnosed with shingles.

Wednesday’s pitching matchup features two hurlers that started slow, but have been pitching much better of late. Cardinals right-hander Jake Westbrook’s overall stats are hideous (2-2, 6.14 ERA, 1.75 WHIP), but he has three straight quality starts (1-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and also won both of his starts versus the Cubs last season. After allowing just two runs in six innings in an August 13 home win over Chicago, Westbrook was bailed out by his offense in his only career start at Wrigley Field on Sept. 26. St. Louis won that game 8-7 as Westbrook allowed five runs (three earned) on five hits and four walks in just 5.1 innings of work.

The Cubs will counter with Matt Garza (1-4, 4.43 ERA), whose lone career outing versus St. Louis was one he has hopefully forgotten about at this point. Garza, pitching for Tampa Bay at the time, allowed seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits and two walks in 4.1 innings in a 9-8 loss at Busch Stadium on May 17, 2008. Garza also got roughed up a bit in his last start Friday against Cincinnati (6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K), but had posted three straight quality starts (1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) prior to Friday. Garza has also pitched very well at home in his first season with Chicago. Garza is winless in four Wrigley Field starts, but has a 3.24 ERA and 35 K in 25 IP. The Cubs will be without starting catcher Geovany Soto (.226 BA, 3 HR, 12 RBI) who left Tuesday’s game with a strained groin.

Despite the Cardinals having the edge offensively, especially if Albert Pujols goes 4-for-5 again like he did Tuesday, the Cubs out-hit St. Louis in the series opener 13-11, getting all 13 hits off Cards ace Chris Carpenter. I expect Garza to turn in a better performance on the mound than Westbrook and lead Chicago to the victory on Wednesday night.

The FoxSheets show two more trends backing up my Cubs pick:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (88-54 since 1997.) (62%, +35.5 units. Rating = 2*).

ST. LOUIS is 7-16 (30.4%, -15.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST. LOUIS 4.2, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Indians go for 15th straight home win facing Price


TAMPA BAY RAYS (20-15)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (23-11)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -125, Cleveland +115

The Indians have been nearly unbeatable in Cleveland this year, and they’ll try to keep it that way against Rays ace David Price on Wednesday.

Cleveland beat the Rays on Tuesday night for its 14th straight victory at home. The Indians saw a two-run lead slip away when Tampa scored in the seventh and eighth, but won the game on Michael Brantley’s walk-off walk against Kyle Farnsworth. This marked the fourth straight home win in the final at-bat for Cleveland.

It was a rare road loss for Tampa, which is 11-5 away this season and had won eight straight road games entering Tuesday night. The Rays will have the edge in Wednesday’s pitching matchup with Price on the mound. He’s been a bit inconsistent this year, throwing eight shutout innings against the White Sox on April 18, following it up by allowing four runs over eight innings in Toronto, five runs over 4.1 against the Angels, then one (unearned) run over 8.2 innings at home against the Jays. Last year, Price faced the Indians twice and won both games. Most recently, he allowed three runs over seven innings in Cleveland last July.

Carlos Carrasco will go for Cleveland. The 24-year-old right-hander is making his return to the bigs after missing two weeks with a minor elbow injury. He’s been pitching relatively well after a disastrous season debut, in which he allowed seven runs over 6.2 innings against the White Sox. In four starts since then he’s posted a 3.63 ERA. He was shelled in his only rehab start though, allowing four runs and seven base runners over 3.2 innings against Double-A bats.

As well as the Tribe is playing right now, it’s too risky to put your money on Carrasco in his return to the rotation. I’m picking Price and Tampa Bay.The FoxSheets have a four-star trend working in the Rays’ favor:

Play On - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities. (40-13 over the last 5 seasons, 75.5%, +29.8 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hanson tries to stay hot facing Nationals


WASHINGTON NATIONALS (17-18)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (20-17)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -210, Washington +190

The Braves saw their five-game home winning streak snapped on Tuesday night, but they have a great chance to get back on track behind Tommy Hanson on Wednesday.

Atlanta was sloppy in its loss on Tuesday. Errors by Freddie Freeman and Nate McLouth led to four unearned runs against starter Tim Hudson. The Braves rallied for five runs in the eighth, but still lost 7-6. They had won seven of eight before Tuesday’s loss.

Hanson is emerging as the team’s stopper. He’s won his past three starts, giving up three runs over 20 innings in those games. He has an up-and-down track record against the Nationals though. Hanson allowed four runs (three earned) in Washington in his first start of the year and has a career 3.12 ERA against the Nats. He’s been great at Turner Field. Since last September, he’s 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA over seven home starts.

Washington will have lefty John Lannan on the mound. After a promising finish to the 2010 season (6-3, 3.42 ERA after a midseason demotion to the minors), he hasn’t been able to beat hitters this year. Opponents are working deep into counts against him, and Lannan has lasted more than six innings just once this season. He was torched in Philadelphia last Thursday, giving up six runs and seven hits while failing to get out of the third inning.

Atlanta has had some serious issues against lefties though. This season the Braves are hitting .216 against southpaws, second-worst in the majors. And Lannan has had success against them. He’s 6-4 with a 3.27 ERA against Atlanta, including wins in his past three starts against the Braves. He’s held Atlanta to two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts against them.

Considering Lannan’s respectable track record against the Braves, that money line is skewed too far in Atlanta’s favor. I’m going with Washington.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend that shows Wednesday night’s pitching matchup is a surprisingly strong combination for the Nats’ chances:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL). (85-68 since 1997, 55.6%, +62.3 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Huge pitching mismatch in Mariners-Orioles


SEATTLE MARINERS (16-20)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (15-19)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -130, Baltimore +120

The Orioles snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday, but they’ll have to beat Felix Hernandez on Wednesday night to start a winning streak.

Baltimore was reeling after a home sweep to the Rays last weekend and it looked like the losing ways would continue on Tuesday. Seattle led a see-saw battle 6-5 midway through the 13th, but the Orioles rallied with four singles off Mariners closer Brandon League to win it 7-6.

Hernandez looks like he’s rounding into form after a shaky start to the year. Over his past four starts, he’s gone 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA. He has also dominated the Orioles of late. Since 2008, Hernandez has a 1.26 ERA over six starts against Baltimore. Last May, he held the O’s to one run over seven innings at Camden Yards in a no-decision. He’s allowed just two runs over 22 innings in his past three starts in Baltimore.

The Orioles will start right-hander Chris Tillman. Since throwing six no-hit innings in Tampa to start the season, the 23-year-old has been a disaster. He has a 9.14 ERA since then and has allowed three runs or more in four of his past five starts. He was rocked in Kansas City on Thursday, allowing eight runs and 10 hits in 3.2 innings.

The Mariners certainly aren’t explosive offensively, but they had 20 hits on Tuesday and should be able to do enough damage against Tillman to support Hernandez. My pick is Seattle.

The FoxSheets don’t have a lot of support for Seattle, but this is one of the trends working against the O’s:

BALTIMORE is 56-67 (45.5%, -35.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.5, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*).

[tech fan]

Good luck buddy