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**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:38 PM

MLB Betting: Twins at Boston Red Sox

A winning homestand is on the line for the Boston Red Sox when they close out their series with the Minnesota Twins on Monday evening (4:10 PT). ESPN will provide the television coverage when Nick Blackburn is on the hill for the Twins with Josh Beckett going for Boston.

Boston is 5-5 through the first 10 games of its longest stand at Fenway Park this year. The Red Sox (16-18, -11.1 units) dropped Friday's series opener to Minnesota but bounced back with wins Saturday and Sunday. Boston was a 160-190 favorite in the first three games of the wrap-around set, and rallied from a 3-0 deficit Sunday to take the 9-5 victory.

Minnesota (12-20, -6.9 units) fell closer to the basement of the AL Central Division standings with Sunday's defeat, and left the Twins 8-14 on the road where they've spent the bulk of their 2011 schedule.

Blackburn (2-4, 4.41) broke a string of four straight losses in his last start. The right-hander worked into the seventh allowing just one run and four hits in the Twins' 3-2 triumph at the White Sox.

This will be his fourth career start against the Red Sox, second at Fenway. He missed seeing Boston during the 2010 season. Minnesota is 2-1 in his three previous assignments vs. the Sox with Blackburn owning a 3.20 ERA in those outings.

Beckett (3-3, 2.35) saw his most recent trip to the mound interrupted by rain, the righty throwing shutout baseball into the fifth before Mother Nature ended his evening against the Angels last Wednesday. Boston dropped the game in extra innings, the second straight defeat for the Sox in Beckett starts.

The Boston hurler has been very effective at keeping hitters off the basepaths this season, limiting batters to a .162 average and walking just 12 countered by 35 strikeouts in his 28 1/3 innings of work.

Just as Red Sox hitters missed Blackburn a season ago, Twins batters also missed seeing Beckett. This will be Beckett's fifth career start against Minnesota, all while a member of the Red Sox. Boston is 3-1 in the previous four, his 3.80 ERA covering 26 innings.

Boston called up prized shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias this weekend when Marco Scutaro hit the disabled list due to a strained oblique. The Red Sox also placed relievers Bobby Jenks (strained right bicep) and Dan Wheeler (strained right calf) on the DL earlier this week.

Minnesota also has a laundry list of walking wounded that includes catcher Joe Mauer (knee), outfielder Delmon Young (ribs) and second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka (broken leg).

Crew chief Joe West should be back of the plate for the contest with a 4-2-1 'over' mark in the early going. The Red Sox are 4-7 when West has called the plate in their games in recent years, 2-4 when he's under the mask at Fenway. The Twins are 8-2 with the veteran working the dish in their games since the start of the 2007 season.

There's a 30 percent chance of showers in Beantown throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The thermometer should be in the upper-50s for the first pitch with a fairly strong win (18 mph NNE) blowing in from left-center.

The Red Sox hit the road following Monday's game, first heading to Toronto for a 2-game quickie that begins Tuesday before a weekend set in the Bronx against the Yanks. The Twins head home for a 5-game set, hosting the Tigers for two starting Tuesday before the Blue Jays visit over the weekend.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:41 PM

Monday's Double Play

May 8, 2011

The weekend has come and gone, taking with it some quality baseball and a no-hitter from Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Monday’s card is a light one with just nine games as many clubs are traveling. We’ll take a look at the nationally televised battle at Fenway Park. Plus, we’re going to focus on the battle amongst the best teams in the National League East.

Twins at Red Sox – 7:05 p.m. EDT, ESPN

This series looked like it could be between division leading teams before the season started. Only one of them is starting to come alive, if it can be called that right now. This has been a fairly even series, but a win on Monday night could give one of the clubs a push towards getting back on track.

Minnesota will hand the ball over to Nick Blackburn (2-4, 4.41) to close out the series. Blackburn is trying to string good starts together for the first time this season. He went 6.2 innings of four-hit, one-run baseball at Chicago on May 4 for his second win of the year. The positives for Blackburn in this spot is that he’s gone 2-1 with a 4.79 earned run average in four career appearances against Boston. Totals players have learned to shade to the ‘under’ when Blackburn starts on the road as it’s gone 3-1 in his four outings in this role.

Josh Beckett (2-1, 2.35) is set to finish up this 11-game homestand for the Red Sox with a victory. The former ace of the staff has looked pretty good in his last five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in four of those outings. Boston lost his last start 5-3 to the Halos in 13 innings, not because of his work. Beckett gave up no runs on one hit in 4.1 innings of work, and possibly could have done more had it not been for the rain delay. The Red Sox have won two of Beckett’s three starts at Fenway Park this season.

Phillies at Marlins – 7:10 p.m. EDT

The Phillies were supposed to be at the top of the NL East standings, which they’ve been happy to oblige. Florida, on the other hand, was a team that was supposed to be no better than third in the division. Yet the Fish find themselves just three games south of Philly at the moment.

Philadelphia turns the starting duties for this series opener to Joe Blanton (0-1, 5.92) on Monday evening. We’ve haven’t seen Blanton on the mound since April 23 at San Diego, but he’s coming off the disabled list in time for this appearance. It was his second straight quality start of the year. While a tried and true angle is to fade a starting pitcher in his first start after a trip to the DL, it’s going to be hard against the Fish. Blanton has gone 5-2 in eight career starts against the Marlins, boasting a decent 3.12 ERA.

The Marlins counter with Javier Vazquez (2-2, 6.39) in the first test of this three-game series. The No. 2 starter for Florida has done just enough to help them win his last two starts. The Marlins go into this game knowing that they’re going to need to put up some runs as Vazquez has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his six starts of 2011. Given that info, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ‘over’ is 4-2 when Vazquez toes the slab.

One would like to think that Florida could use the home field to its advantage, but that’s not been the case against the Phils. The Marlins have gone 1-8 over their last nine battles against Philly at Sun Life Stadium, with the ‘over’ going on a 4-2 run in the final six dates.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:44 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

May 9, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 12-0 since April 22, 2010 when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1305.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Angels are 0-8-1 OU since July 18, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 11-0 OU since July 26, 2009 when Joe Blanton starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Tigers are 0-6 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $615 when playing against.

The Blue Jays are 7-0 since April 30, 2010 when Brandon Morrow starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $745.

The Twins are 6-0 since May 04, 2010 when Nick Blackburn starts in May for a net profit of $685.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:45 PM

MLB Betting Notes

May 9, 2011

You have to love the story of the Rays prospect Brandon Guyer in the same sense that we loved the plight of Moonlight Graham in ’Field of Dreams’. Guyer, a 25-year-old outfielder, was called up from the minors last week after starting pitcher Jeff Niemann went on the disabled list because the Rays thought B.J. Upton might be suspended and wanted fill the possible hole.

Upton put in an appeal and wasn’t suspended, but the Rays inserted Guyer into the starting lineup for Friday’s game against the Orioles anyway. In his first major league at-bat, Guyer hit a home run and ended the night 1-for-3. Now that’s how you make a first impression. Guyer was one of the key players received in the Matt Garza trade with the Cubs. After a great first month at Durham where he was smoking the ball, he had to be thinking he was up ‘in the show’ to stay.

Guyer didn’t play Saturday, which wasn’t alarming because Joe Maddon constantly shuffles his lineups around utilizing his entire bench as starters. But on Sunday morning, before their game, Guyer was informed he was being sent back down to Durham because they needed a pitcher. Maddon said he’s sure Guyer will be back up and make an impact with the team, but you never know. At least his cup of coffee in the majors was of the bold and strong flavored variety.

Phenomenal Phillies

The Phillies may have had a set back when pitcher Roy Oswalt went on the DL last week, but don’t feel too sorry for the team tied for the best record in baseball. Oswalt’s replacement, Vince Worley, has fit right in and has dominated his two starts going 2-0 and allowing only one run.

The Phillies also have a couple of amazing trends going right now. They are 10-0 this season in day games and have gone 9-1 against lefties. They play two day games this weekend against the Braves, but won’t face any lefties against either the Marlins or Braves.

The Marlins are still nipping at the Phillies in the NL East, but unlike the Phillies, they don’t play at their best in day games. Florida’s win Sunday was only their third day win in eight games, making them a really dangerous night club going 17-8.

Definitely Not a Number One

Many thought Cliff Lee was crazy for not taking the big New York money, opting to take less and pitch in Philadelphia with all kinds of reasons given such as his wife didn’t like the city. But the real reason was him probably not wanting to be so visible in the brightest spotlight of such a big contract.

Lee has lost his last three starts, yet has remained out of the storylines because of how well the team is doing. He doesn’t have the weight of the team on him, letting Roy Halladay handle that department. Although Lee has pitched very well in those three losses, you have to believe the New York media wouldn’t have been so kind to Lee in the same situation which makes his move to Philly look like the smartest thing he could have done.

Run-Lines

The run-line can be a nice way to pull some edge back to the player in the right spots, but certain teams should almost always be advised to stay away from. The Royals have played in 14 one-runs games this season, winning nine of them, while Reds lead the NL with 13 one-run games, only winning six of them. The best teams to be on or against on the run-line are the Orioles and Tigers who have each only been involved in five one-run games.

Power Outage

We’re seeing the lowest home run ratio in baseball since 1992 with pitchers quickly getting ahead in the count and showing no fear like we saw through an era that seems to have just passed us by in 2009. The last two seasons have seen batting averages and home runs decline while also seeing ERA's drop. This has become a pitchers game again and more emphasis than ever should be put on the pitchers and bullpens when it comes to handicapping the games.

Tigers Ready the Growl

After a sluggish start that carried through last week with a seven-game losing streak, the Detroit Tigers might be a team we can expect to start coming around. They’ve won five of their last six through Sunday and most of that can be attributed to good starting pitching.

Justin Verlander (3-3) has been getting all the headlines after throwing a no-hitter last week, but the real ace of the staff has been Max Scherzer (5-0), who just wins. The pitcher that has really made them tough to beat in a series now is veteran Brad Penny (3-3), who has been outstanding over his last four starts going 3-1 allowing two runs or less in the three wins.

If Rick Porcello (2-2) can stay .500 and give them innings and Phil Coke (1-5) can start showing some of that promise, Detroit should be able to make a good run at the Indians for the division quickly. The Tigers are currently 30/1 to win the World Series at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

The Bucs Don’t Stop Here

Calling a .500 record somewhat of accomplishment on May 8 may not be a big deal for most teams, but for Pittsburgh, they’ll take it. The Bucs haven’t had a winning record since 1992, the last of their three straight NL East titles, and also last year of Barry Bonds in the steel city. After winning their home series from the Astros on Sunday, the Pirates went to 17-17 and tied their season high with a two-game winning streak. It’s been six years since the Pirates have been .500 this late, and it’s only May.

If it weren’t for the Marlins (0-3 record against), Brewers (0-2) and Rockies (1-4), Pittsburgh would be starting a catch phrase, or cling to a song for this year’s version of the team. Even though two games in a row doesn’t sound like much, it’s when the Pirates win them that matters, like the front and back end of three-game series. The key to their success thus far has been terrific play on the road, winning four of five road series. Their win Sunday was their second home series conquest of the season.

This week the Pirates welcome the lackluster Dodgers for a four-game set before traveling to Milwaukee, who has dominated Pittsburgh. The Brewers are 48-17 against the Pirates since 2007, including the two-game sweep in April.

Those of you thinking that this could be the Pirates first World Series win since 1979, check out the 300/1 odds offered at the Las Vegas Hilton.

Injuries

Welcome back Jake Peavy! Wednesday looks to be the day 2007 Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy makes his return to the rotation for White Sox. He threw over 100 pitches in a rehab assignment last Thursday and had no pain. For some bettors, they may be happy to see Peavy back as well or at least for his first start.

Pitchers coming back from an injury can be a great spot to bet against them, as was the case last week with Zack Greinke. Some pitchers take it to the extreme when they come back like Ubaldo Jimenez has in losing all three of his starts since returning to the Rockies rotation. Jimenez pitched very well his last time out which may put a stop to that gravy train.

Others, like the Reds Johnny Ceuto, have come back strong. In Sunday’s 2-0 win at Wrigley Field, Cueto didn’t allow a run in six innings of work after struggling somewhat in four previous minor league rehab appearances.

Rangers OF Josh Hamilton is coming back in two weeks. He‘s been swinging the bat and is ahead of the timetable set. He went on the disabled list Apr. 13 and was then expected to come back in six to eight weeks. The Rangers were 9-1 when he went on DL and are 9-16 without him. Over that losing stretch, it hasn't helped that Nelson Cruz has also been banged up which forced the Rangers to put him on the 15-day DL on Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:47 PM

Reds-Astros open 3-game series in Houston

CINCINNATI REDS (18-16)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (13-21)

First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -130, Houston +120, Total: 8.5

The Reds will try to build upon their recent success against the Astros when the teams open a three-game series in Houston on Monday night. Cincinnati has won four of six meetings this season and is 26-11 (.703) versus the Astros in the past three seasons, which includes an 11-5 record at Minute Maid Park.

Houston finished its road trip with a 2-4 record after dropping a 5-4 decision in Pittsburgh on Sunday. After opening the trip with a 10-run outburst, the Astros managed a mere 14 runs in the past five games. The team will also not have the services of its hottest hitter, Jason Bourgeois, who was placed on the DL before Sunday’s game with a strained left oblique. Bourgeois, who is second in the majors with 12 stolen bases (despite only 57 plate appearances) was 14-for-27 over his past seven games before getting injured.

Monday’s pitching matchup will be a rematch of last Wednesday’s meeting when 23-year-old Aneury Rodriguez (0-0, 4.15 ERA) opposed Cincy’s 24-year-old lefty Travis Wood (1-3, 6.21 ERA). Neither pitcher factored into the decision, a 3-2 Reds win. This was the first career start for Rodriguez, who pitched very well. He allowed just one hit and one walk, while striking out three batters in five scoreless innings.

After a 5-10 stretch, Cincinnati is starting to heat up with wins in four of its past five contests. The Reds took 2-of-3 at Wrigley Field this past weekend, which was capped off by Sunday’s 2-0 shutout win behind Johnny Cueto, in his season debut, and four relievers.

Wood will try to keep the team’s hot streak going with what he hopes will be a second straight strong outing versus Houston. Wood gave up two runs on five hits in six innings last Wednesday, while walking four and striking out seven batters. But Wood hasn’t won since his season debut, and carries a frightening 9.65 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in four evening starts this year. For his short career, Wood has faced Houston three times, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, with 16 K and 4 BB in 16 IP.

Wood expects to get a good amount of run support on Monday, especially from sluggers Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Votto is 10-for-26 (.385) versus the Astros this season and has hit safely in 13 straight games in Houston, posting a .444 BA with 4 HR and 10 doubles. Bruce has batted .321 in 23 games at Minute Maid Park during his career, which is his highest batting average at any National League stadium.

With everything seemingly going against Houston in this matchup, I’m taking slightly-favored Cincinnati to open the series with a win. The FoxSheets show a managerial trend favoring the Reds on Monday:

Dusty Baker is 76-62 (55.1%, +26.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game as the manager of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:48 PM

Greinke, Latos both seek first win of season

SAN DIEGO PADRES (14-20)

at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (14-20)

First pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -140, San Diego +130, Total: 7.5

A pair of struggling aces take the hill Monday night in Milwaukee when San Diego’s Mat Latos (0-4, 4.56 ERA) and Zack Greinke (0-1, 9.00 ERA) both search for their first win of the season in the opener of a three-game series at Miller Park.

The Padres capped off a 3-3 homestand with a 4-3 victory over Arizona on Sunday. Now they begin an eight-game road trip, where they have found offense (and winning) much easier to come by. San Diego is 7-6 with 3.9 runs per game on the road, as compared to its 7-14 record and 2.6 runs per game at Petco Park.

Latos, who was 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP last season, is looking for his first win since Sept. 7, a span of 10 starts. Latos has failed to complete seven innings in any of these outings, as the Padres are just 1-9 during this 10-game drought. But the one win was Latos’ last start on Tuesday when he allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings against Pittsburgh in a game San Diego eventually won, 6-5. This was an encouraging start for Latos. "Something just clicked," catcher Rob Johnson told the Padres' official website. "His fastball was tight and his slider had a lot of life to it."

The 23-year-old Latos has only faced Milwaukee once in his brief career, on May 1, 2010. In that start, Latos took the hard-luck, 2-1 loss despite pitching six innings and only allowing six hits and the two runs (both solo homers). He struck out four and walked three. Despite that defeat, San Diego averaged 5.6 runs per game while winning four of seven against Milwaukee last year.

The Brewers are happy to return home after a miserable 2-8 road trip, capped off with a 3-1 defeat to St. Louis Sunday. Milwaukee was outscored 40-17 in the 10 games, and its two sluggers were particularly terrible. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder both hit below .200 during the trip, including a combined 3-for-34 (.088) and zero RBI in the last five games. Milwaukee is now 6-15 on the road this year, but is 8-5 at Miller Park.

Greinke will be making his first home start in a Brewers uniform on Monday, and he hopes the outcome is much better than his season debut Wednesday in Atlanta. Greinke only lasted four innings that game, surrendering five runs (four earned), five hits and one walk, but he did strike out six batters. This was not what the team was hoping for when it acquired the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner from Kansas City in December. Greinke didn’t pitch at all in April after suffering a cracked rib playing pickup basketball at the start of spring training. He will also be making his first career start against the Padres, who are currently last in the majors in runs per game (3.09) and slugging percentage (.321), and are near the bottom of the league in batting average (.215), on-base percentage (.299) and home runs (21).

Although Mat Latos is winless this year, he does have 30 strikeouts in 27.2 innings, and is facing a Brewers offense that is hitting .170 with 12 runs and 72 K in their past nine games. With Greinke not back to full strength yet, I’m taking underdog San Diego to continue its road success with a big win on Monday.

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to fade the Brew Crew:

MILWAUKEE is 12-24 (33.3%, -18.0 Units) against the money line in home games against NL West opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*).

MILWAUKEE is 31-46 (40.3%, -25.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:49 PM

Beckett tries to propel Boston to 3rd straight win over Twins

MINNESOTA TWINS (12-20)

at BOSTON RED SOX (16-18)

First Pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -220, Minnesota +200, Total: 8.5

Two teams that are expected to challenge for the American League championship, but have gotten off to poor starts will meet in Boston on Monday when the Twins complete a four-game series against the Red Sox. No team has won fewer games than Minnesota’s 12 this season. The Twins will throw Nick Blackburn (2-4, 4.41 ERA) while Boston counters with Josh Beckett (2-1, 2.35 ERA).

Francisco Liriano, who tossed a no-hitter his last start to snap a six-game losing streak for the Twins, was originally scheduled to start on Monday, but will miss the game with flu-like symptoms. Blackburn gets the chance to send Minnesota home with a split of the four-game series. After winning the opener on Friday, the Twins have dropped the last two games, getting shut out 4-0 on Saturday, and losing 9-5 on Sunday. The Twins have now lost eight of their past 11 games. Blackburn will work on regular rest after breaking a four-start losing streak Wednesday against the White Sox, allowing one run in 6.2 innings of a 3-2 victory. He is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA in three career starts against Boston, though he suffered a loss in relief Sept. 29, 2007. He hasn't faced the Red Sox since beating them May 26, 2009.

Boston counters with Josh Beckett who has been virtually unhittable at Fenway Park in his three starts this season. Beckett has allowed just six hits and one run in his 19.1 innings of work, holding batters to a .098 BA, while striking out 22 and walking six. Overall, Beckett hasn’t lost since his first start April 5, allowing seven runs with 31 strikeouts in 33.1 innings since. He hasn't factored into the decision in any of his past three starts despite pitching well (2.95 ERA, 0.87 WHIP). Beckett faced the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday, pitching 4.1 scoreless innings and allowing just one hit, before the game was interrupted by rain.

The Twins are struggling and Beckett has been unhittable at home. I’m picking heavily-favored Boston to take the series with a big win on Monday. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Red Sox:

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -200 or more (BOSTON) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. (55-7 since 1997.) (88.7%, +40.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Any team (BOSTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (67-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +35.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:51 PM

Cahill, Wilson square off in expected pitchers' duel Monday

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (18-17)

at TEXAS RANGERS (18-17)

First Pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -130, Oakland +120, Total: 8.5

American League West rivals with identical records will meet on Monday in Texas when the Oakland A’s take on the defending American League champions in the opener of a three-game series.

The Athletics will send Trevor Cahill (5-0, 1.79 ERA) to the mound. After going 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his first three starts, Cahill is 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his past four outings. Since the A's moved to Oakland in 1968, only one other pitcher has started 5-0 or better with an ERA under 2.00 through his first seven starts of a season with the team: Dave Stewart in 1990 (6-0, 1.46 ERA through seven starts). Cahill has also done very well against the Rangers in his career, going 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 10 starts.

The Rangers will counter with lefty C.J. Wilson (4-1, 2.74 ERA). Wilson is looking to avenge his lone loss of the year Monday night. On April 29 in Oakland, Cahill and the A’s defeated Texas, 3-1. Wilson has lasted at least seven innings in five of his seven starts this season, while holding opponents to 2 ER or fewer in five of those seven starts.

The Rangers have lost three of four against the A’s this season and enter Monday losers of six of their past eight overall. Because Cahill has been outstanding this season and overall in his career against the Rangers, I’m taking Oakland to win on Monday.

The FoxSheets provide two trends backing the A’s:

TREVOR CAHILL is 25-10 (71.4%, +15.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was CAHILL 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TEXAS) - after 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive unders. (31-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +25.7 units. Rating = 4*).

With two great pitchers taking the hill, the FoxSheets show a highly-rated trend supporting the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a tired bullpen - after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings. (107-55 since 1997.) (66%, +45.6 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 03:52 PM

Canucks try to finish off Predators in Game 6

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

at NASHVILLE PREDATORS

NHL Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals
Game 6 – Vancouver leads series 3-2
Puck drops: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Vancouver -130, Nashville +110, Total: 5

Winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the first time in franchise history clinched home-ice advantage for the Vancouver Canucks for as long as they participate in the 2011 NHL postseason. Facing the defending champions in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, the Canucks won the first three games of their best-of-seven series, but held on for dear life as the Blackhawks won Games 4-6 and then forced OT in Game 7. Vancouver was able to defeat Chicago in OT, but looked very vulnerable in barely closing the deal. After winning three of the first four games of this series, the Canucks had another chance to eliminate their opponent on Saturday and failed. They are now 1-4 in the 2011 postseason when they have a chance to eliminate their opponent. Hardly the pedigree of champions.

Perhaps the Canucks enjoy testing their mettle and just how far they can go before they cause total panic in their franchise and amongst their fans. After winning both games in Nashville, the Canucks allowed a series-high four goals to the offensive-starved Predators, and now travel to Nashville hoping to eliminate the Preds again in Game 6. Ryan Kesler continued his revival in Game 5, scoring two goals. That gives him five tallies over his past three games after going his previous 17 playoff contests without scoring a goal. His five goals and nine points lead all players this series. After scoring five times against the Blackhawks, Daniel Sedin has not scored a goal this series, while combining with brother Henrik to post a minus-8 rating.

Nashville won its first-ever postseason game when facing elimination on Saturday, after going 0-5 in its previous five chances. After scoring just 10 goals during the regular season, Joel Ward has now scored seven goals in the playoffs, which is tied with three others for the most among players this postseason. David Legwand scored two goals in Game 5 and now has five total in the 2011 playoffs. Entering this postseason, Legwand had just four goals in 25 games. After being unconscious in net during the first two games of this series, allowing just two goals, Pekka Rinne has become human again in the past three games. He has allowed 10 goals over that span and needs to return to his form earlier this series if the Preds want to force Game 7.

The Canucks don’t want to face another pressure-packed Game 7 against a goaltender with Rinne’s ability to single-handedly eliminate an opponent. They will throw all they can at Rinne on Monday and hope that’s enough. A Vancouver win will advance the team to the Conference Finals for the first time since 1994 and the third time in franchise history. The Canucks are the only Canadian team this century to not advance to the Conference Finals. Vancouver still has to prove to me that it can consistently win when it’s time to close the door. I thought the Canucks had learned their lesson against Chicago, but apparently they still need some schooling. Look for Nashville and Rinne to come to play on Monday and force a Game 7.

The FoxSheets support my Predators pick with this trend:

NASHVILLE is 18-7 ATS (72.0%, +25.0 Units) after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NASHVILLE 2.8, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 04:59 PM

NHL Betting: Vancouver Canucks, Nashville Predators Game 6

The Vancouver Canucks had the opportunity to close out the Chicago Blackhawks at home in Game 5 in the Western Conference quarterfinals and found out how quickly the momentum swung in that series.

While the Canucks were fortunate to advance, they made the same mistake again on Saturday in a 4-3 loss in Game 5 against the Nashville Predators.

Vancouver now hopes to to avoid a second straight 7-game series with a road victory in Game 6 on Monday. Game time is 5:00 p.m. (PT) with CBC and Versus providing the television coverage.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds show the Canucks 130 chalk for Game 6 with five goals for the total at Bridgestone Arena in Music City.

The Predators extended the series as 196 underdogs thanks to two goals apiece from David Legwand and Joel Ward. The team to score first won in consecutive games for the first time in the series, as Legwand converted on a short-handed breakaway goal after getting an assist from Ward 3:42 into the first period.

However, the Canucks struck back with goals by Raffi Torres and Ryan Kesler to take a 2-1 lead into the first intermission.

Legwand evened the score with the only goal of the second period following a bizarre sequence that saw the puck bounce off Vancouver goalie Roberto Luongo’s head from behind the net and then off defenseman Alex Edler. That break gave Nashville the boost it desperately needed to avoid elimination heading into the third period and seemed to stun Luongo, who proceeded to surrender two goals to Ward within the first six minutes.

Ward’s second goal pushed the total ‘over’ for the second game in a row after the ‘under’ went 6-0-1 in the previous seven meetings.

Kesler pulled the Canucks to within a goal with a little under four minutes remaining in the game, and he has carried them in the last three now after tallying game-winners in the previous two.

Twin brothers Daniel and Henrik Sedin missed on all seven of their combined shots, and both finished without a point for the third time in the series. Vancouver is 1-2 in those games with the win coming in the series opener, 1-0.

Predators goalie Pekka Rinne stopped 31 of 34 shots and is out-performing Luongo through five games despite allowing one more goal (11-10). Rinne has kept 160 of 171 shots out of the net for a save percentage of .936 while Luongo has stopped 130 of 140 (.929).

Nashville was 0-5 in elimination games going into Game 5 and is just 2-3 on home ice in the playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 05:03 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 9, 2011

Home teams are 7-11
Favorites are 9-9
Favorites that won are 4-5 on the puck line
The 'over' is 11-6-1
First Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thursday Apr. 28, 2011
Predators Canucks 1-0 FAVORITE (-200) UNDER 5

Friday Apr. 29, 2011
Lightning Capitals 4-2 UNDERDOG (+160) OVER 5.5
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5

Saturday Apr. 30, 2011
Bruins Flyers 7-3 UNDERDOG (+125) OVER 5.5
Predators Canucks 2-1 (2OT) UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5

Sunday May 1, 2011
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5
Lightning Capitals 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5.5

Monday May 2, 2011
Bruins Flyers 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+115) UNDER 5.5

Tuesday May 3, 2011
Capitals Lightning 4-3 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5
Canucks Predators 3-2 FAVORITE (-125) PUSH

Wednesday May 4, 2011
Capitals Lightning 5-3 FAVORITE (-110) OVER 5
Flyers Bruins 5-1 FAVORITE (-140) OVER 5.5
Sharks Red Wings 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG (+135) OVER 5.5

Thursday May 5, 2011
Canucks Predators 4-2 FAVORITE (-130) OVER 5

Friday May 6, 2011
Sharks Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE (-140) OVER 5.5
Flyers Bruins 5-1 FAVORITE (-155) OVER 5.5

Saturday May 7, 2011
Predators Canucks 4-3 UNDERDOG (+180) OVER 5

Sunday May 8, 2011
Red Wings Sharks 4-3 UNDERDOG (+120) OVER 5.5

Monday May 9, 2011
Canucks Predators

Tuesday May 10, 2011
Sharks Red Wings

Wednesday May 11, 2011
Predators Canucks

Thursday May 12, 2011
Red Wings Sharks

Winners in BOLD

**StarDust Bum** · 05-09-2011, 05:21 PM

MLB

Monday, May 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +113 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Detroit - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -109 500
Toronto - Over 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:10 PM ET Minnesota +224 500
Boston - Over 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia -102 500
Florida - Under 9 500

Cincinnati - 8:05 PM ET Houston +118 500
Houston - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Texas -117 500
Texas - Under 8.5 500

San Diego - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -132 500
Milwaukee - Over 7 500

NY Mets - 8:40 PM ET NY Mets +161 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

Chi. White Sox - 10:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +133 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

----------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Monday, May 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Vancouver - 8:00 PM ET Vancouver -129 500
Nashville - Over 5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

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