Cnotes Friday's - Saturday's Oaks and Derby Plays !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Oaks Winner

I like this in the Oaks/Derby Double

1- Joyful Victory

4- Kathmanblu

13- St. Johns River

Derby Winner

13- Mucho Mach Man

14- Shackleford

15- Midnight Interlude

$ 2.00 Double Hook um all up 18.00......Good Luck

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby Odds: Uncle Mo scratched

Rain is in the forecast for Saturday’s 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.
The 137th Run for the Roses is Saturday at Churchill Downs with Dialed In the 4-1 morning line favorite. Everything looks good for Dialed In as he is trained by Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito and has a favorable post position as he starts from post eight.

Zito has won the Kentucky Derby twice in the past with Strike the Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994. He does have to buck some history though as rarely does the favorite win the Kentucky Derby.

Make your Kentucky Derby bets right now at *** Global.com.

Uncle Mo was the second choice on the morning line at 9-2 but was scratched due to a lingering gastrointestinal infection. Uncle Mo was considered a superstar horse until he disappointed everyone in the Wood Memorial by finishing third as a huge favorite.

The horse, owned by Mike Repole, was to have started from post 18 which wouldn't have helped his chances. Rain is in the forecast for Saturday so that was another concern.

The third choice on the morning line is Nehro at 6-1 and he has gotten some attention in Kentucky Derby betting this week. All of the other horses in the field are 10-1 or more starting with Archarcharch who is starting from the rail at odds of 10-1. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the rail since 1986.

Also at 10-1 is Midnight Interlude although it is hard to understand why he is 10-1 and not 30-1 considering horses simply don’t win the Kentucky Derby without racing as 2-year olds, and Midnight Interlude did not.

The horse is trained by Bob Baffert and he did win the Santa Anita Derby so perhaps that is the reason for the low odds.

Soldat, Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford are listed with betting odds of 12-1 while three other horses are 20-1 and eight more are 30-1. Watch Me Go is the long shot at 50-1 for Saturday.

If it is raining and muddy then you have to like Soldat who simply loves to run in the slop and would be a great value bet at 12-1.

[StarDust Bum]

Pants On Fire among top Kentucky Derby long shots

Picking a long shot in the year’s biggest race is never an easy task, but many bettors will be trying to do just that in the 137th Kentucky Derby.

The race is unique in the sense that all entrants are three-year-olds that have never run the Derby distance of 1 1/4-mile in their careers, which certainly allows for longshot opportunities. Handicappers will tell you that distance is the single-most important factor in judging the race, as normally a lot of horses can be thrown out of the mix due to this angle.

It’s also important to point out that in the last seven years, Giacomo (30/1) in 2005 and Mine That Bird (60/1) in 2009, came from well back to provide backers for an incredible return on a simple $2 win wager. Of course, no race is the same when going against fields of 20 or more, but it’s very rare to see a longshot win this race with a front running style.

Pants On Fire is still getting little to no respect in the Derby conversation and that’s just fine from my perspective. The three-year-old is coming off a prep victory at the Louisiana Derby and will be ridden once again by female jockey Rosie Napravnik. After his mid-pack finish in the Risen Star, Pants On Fire avenged his loss to Mucho Macho Man with a close win and compiling a career-best 93 Beyer Speed Rating.

Pants On Fire also delivered his first stakes win in a million dollar race despite an abbreviated training schedule because of an infection that limited him to one workout between his last two races. He may offer the right price in a wide-open field just for the sake of holding off two main derby contenders in the lane last time out.

Twice the Appeal will get some attention due to drawing jockey Calvin Borel for the mount, but he will likely go off at odds of 25-to-1 or more. He deserves a long look from bettors for other reasons and none more important than his success on dirt tracks.

In running his last four races over the natural surface, Twice the Appeal has won three races and finished second in the other. He earned a career-best 89 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race by winning the 1 1/8-mile Grade 3 Sunland Derby. With improving figures over the last four races, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this horse makes some noise over the final furlongs with a rider that’s done it before (Mine That Bird).

In my experience of handicapping the Kentucky Derby over the last decade, Saturday’s field is as wide open as I can ever remember. The spotlight will certainly be placed on Uncle Mo and others, but no horse in this field has been spectacular during its three-year-old campaign. That simple face alone offers value to the entire race and warrants at least one longshot play.

Post time Saturday is 3:24 p.m. (PT) with NBC providing the telecast.

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby odds find Dialed In favored

The calendar has turned to May and it’s time for people to start asking the question, “Who do you like in the Derby?”

It’s a question that will be asked more and more leading up to Saturday’s 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is listed at 3:24 p.m. (PT) and the race can be seen on NBC.

Before making a pick on the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports,” bettors will anxiously await the Derby post position draw that will take place on Wednesday, May 4 (2:00 p.m. PT) with VERSUS providing coverage of that event.

Track conditions and weather will also prove to be an important factor in handicapping Saturday’s race due to the Louisville area receiving over 11 inches of rain during the month of April. Early forecasts suggest isolated thunderstorms on Saturday with a warmer temperature of around 77 degrees come race time.

The current favorite on many future boards is Dialed In (+290), the winner of the Florida Derby by a head, while producing a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. The three-year-old was bred out of Mineshaft (sire) and Miss Doolittle (dam). He has been ridden by Julien Leparoux in all four starts, missing a perfect resume by a half-length in his third race.

The prep races for all Derby contenders have featured numerous upsets, so it might not be a good idea to accept low odds on any contender in the race. Uncle Mo (+325) has the name to capture the hearts of the casual bettor and will undoubtedly go off at odds that don’t suit his current form.

Jockey John Velazquez was in the irons as trainer Todd Pletcher’s star horse covered five furlongs in 1:01.60 on the main track. He was sensational as a two-year-old, going 3-for-3 and capping a championship season with a 4 1/4-length victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That particular performance produced a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, which simply can’t be matched by any other horse in the field.

Mineshaft has another opportunity to produce a winner in the likes of Nehro (+550), who many experts believe may improve greatly with the added distance of the Derby. In finishing second at both the Arkansas and Louisiana Derby, he may be overvalued considering he just broke his maiden nine weeks ago in a 32k maiden special weight race. Never beating a stakes-quality field is a major drawback at his current price.

Female bettors may not have a worthy filly to bet on for the big race, but Pants on Fire (+3000) supplies a jockey angle of interest. Rosie Napravnik was aboard Sunday’s breeze of four furlongs in 0:47 4/5 on an off track, which was the seventh-best time over the distance. Napravnik will try to become the first female jockey to win the Derby and took a major step in that direction by winning two races on Saturday’s opening-night card at Churchill.

This year’s field seems as wide open as any in memory and will offer plenty of opportunity to select a horse with great value. For many, it could be as simple as choosing an entertaining name such as Master of Hounds (+1750) or Mucho Macho Man (+1500).

All futures odds mentioned are from Bookmaker.com.

[StarDust Bum]

Horse Racing Odds: Kentucky Derby field set

Kentucky Derby odds have been released, and now that we know of the 19 horses that are going to be in the field, we're all set to take our stab on the race for whom we think will be crossing the finish line first to earn the bed of roses.

What we have to remember about this race is that some of the top three-year-old colts in the world aren't running in it. Horses like The Factor and Jaycito were taken out of consideration awhile ago, but the biggest name that won't be at Churchill Downs on Saturday is Uncle Mo.

This was the crème de la crème, per se, especially after he absolutely romped to a 4 1/4-length victory at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year.

The second issue that is going to change the course of this race is Mother Nature. Kentucky Derby betting lines will inevitably be all over the place on Saturday depending on how the weather ends up closer to post time. It has been wet in Lexington all week long, and though the track for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday is expected to be good, there is a big time question about the Derby on Saturday.

Temperatures should be relatively low in the mid-to-high 60s, and there are thunderstorms expected.

If this is the case, a horse like Soldat, who will start out of the No. 17 position on Saturday, might be worth watching. We know that we are getting solid odds on jockey Alan Garcia's horse (plus 1215). The 103 speed rating that this horse had in the slop at Gulfstream Park in January is one of the best in the field regardless of track conditions.

That race was also 1 1/8 miles and was won by over 10 lengths.

The elimination of Uncle Mo from the field gets to move one of the other favorites, No. 19 Nehro, into a better position. Nehro just missed winning both the Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby this year, and many think that this is the race when Nehro stops being a bridesmaid and becomes a bride instead.

A pedigree which includes the likes of Mineshaft, AP Indy and Afleet is absolutely fantastic, and this is going to be the horse to watch out for on the outside. You can find Nehro at plus 745.

The favorite of this race has a great position though, and it's going to be awfully, awfully hard to take down Dialed In. With Uncle Mo out, this is the head and shoulders favorite on the Kentucky Derby odds (plus 325).

Not only did Dialed In get a great post position at No. 8, but he is suited to come out of the parking lot and come away with a big time victory. He closed from 10 lengths back at the halfway point of the Florida Derby in April and should be the colt to beat at Churchill Downs on Saturday if he can avoid too many traffic issues.

One of the best props on the board for this year's Derby is there to not be a wire-to-wire winner. There really isn't a heck of a lot of speed in this race in terms of the favorites, and with so many horses having so many question marks in this field, we know that someone is going to nip whomever comes out of the gate.

The Kentucky Derby odds are minus 900 for this prop at Bodog.com, but we know that there isn't a 1-in-9 chance that one of these 19 horses gets the job done.

[StarDust Bum]

My Plays On the Derby:

05/07/2011 by ONLINE at 11:45:20 AM

[Ticket #: 97137112] Racing ticket #9837735
05/07/2011 @ 11:45 AM

RAC May-07 CHU R11 1.00 USD TRI

14,15,19/4,13,14,15,19,20/4,13,14,15,19,20
60.00 0.00

05/07/2011 by ONLINE at 11:46:29 AM

[Ticket #: 97137211] Racing ticket #9837788
05/07/2011 @ 11:46 AM

RAC May-07 CHU R11 2.00 USD WPS 20
6.00 0.00

05/07/2011 by ONLINE at 11:52:24 AM

[Ticket #: 97137707] Racing ticket #9838036
05/07/2011 @ 11:52 AM

RAC May-07 CHU R11 1.00 USD TRI 17/8,13,14,19/8,13,14,19
12.00 0.00

My Single # 14 SHACKLEFORD 20 Across WPS.

[StarDust Bum]

Now the Derby.

How and if will Uncle Mo run. The derby fav for a long time came down w/a GI problem and got beat soundly in the last prep, the Wood in NY. Many Pundints have stated he has lost a little wieght, he appears to be getting better, as his 2 works at CD have been good but not sizzeling. Are the connections laying in the weeds or is the horse really on the rebound but not quite there. Who bets chals in the derby.

Mucho Mach Man is my selection, should get a stalking trip off the large contingent of early speed. The horse ran 3rd in his last prep even after losing a front shoe. And the story about the trainer Kathy Revito and the birth of the horse himself is a soap opera. (see Blodhorse .com for race replays and more stories than you want to read)

Dailed In is the luke warm favorite. He should be formaidable but he comes from the clouds, Plentey on early speed signed on to make up his late run.

MIdnight Interlude is Bafferts horse. THis horse has only 4 races in him. He won the Santa Anita Derby an Baffert know how to get them ready.

I liked ARCHARCHARCH until he drew the 1 hole. Ferninand was the last horse from the 1 to win 30 yrs ago. Maybe he gets up for a piece

Stay Thirsty ran like a pig in the Fla Derby. But I loved his papa Bernardini and his price will be huge.

Shackelford seems to be the wiseguy horse, everbody is raving about his looks and works and CD. He was nipped at the wire in the Fla derby by Dailed in, he was 68-1 that day. He needs to stalk the pace not be a part of it.

[Sirporkie]

GL seems like everyone likes Mucho Macho Man