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**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:44 PM

MLB Betting Preview: Reds at Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have played 30 games, but have yet to win three in a row.

That could change on Friday when the Cubs host Cincinnati at 11:20 a.m. (PT) in the opener of a three-game series.

The 14-16 Cubs are riding a modest two-game winning streak yet are in position to make a move in the National League Central Division with nine consecutive games at Wrigley Field.

Often playing in cold weather, the Cubs are just 6-8 at Wrigley. Chicago, though, went 4-2 during its last six games during their West Coast trip to Arizona and Los Angeles.

Good weather is expected for Friday’s matchup with temperatures in the low 60s only a four percent chance of rain and winds blowing in around 12 mph.

Matt Garza is slated to take the mound for Chicago after finally notching his first victory as a Cub. Garza held the Diamondbacks to three runs on six hits in eight innings this past Saturday, winning 5-3 as a 110 road ‘dog against Ian Kennedy.

The combined eight runs dipped ‘under’ the 8 ½-run total. This was the deepest Garza has pitched this season, but he threw just 104 pitches, his second-lowest pitch count of the year.

The 27-year-old right-hander is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Garza, though, finished April with a club-record 51 strikeouts. That currently ranks him tied for third with Detroit’s Justin Verlander for most strikeouts in the major leagues.

The Reds had lost nine of their last 13 when facing a right-hander through this past Wednesday.

Once again the Cubs are having trouble manufacturing runs. Despite ranking third in the league in batting at .271 and with Alfonso Soriano having the most homers in the majors with 11, the Cubs rate 21st in runs averaging four per game.

The ‘under’ has cashed in Chicago’s past six games. The Cubs haven’t broken the five-run barrier during their last 10 games.

Chicago could exceed its season-average facing Edinson Volquez. The 27-year-old right-hander is 2-1, but has a 5.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Volquez has struggled to find his command after undergoing Tommy John surgery two years ago and being suspended for 50 games last year for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Control has been a big issu with Volquez walking 24 batters in 33 1/3 innings – an average of 6.48 walks per nine innings – and has not gone beyond the sixth inning. He has yet to regain his pre-surgery velocity when he went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 2008 with 206 strikeouts in 196 innings.

Volquez didn’t get a decision in his last outing, a 4-3 home victory versus Florida as a 110 underdog against Josh Johnson. He pitched just five innings and allowed only one run and two hits. However, he walked five and threw 102 pitches. The combined seven runs pushed on the seven-run total.

Lifetime against the Cubs, Volquez is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in 18 2/3 innings and 19 strikeouts.

After opening the season with five straight victories, the Reds have lost 15 of their last 25 through this past Wednesday.

Reigning NL Most Valuable Player Joey Votto hasn’t let up from last year. He’s reached safely in every one of the Reds’ first 30 games. Votto currently ranks sixth in the NL in batting at .358.

The Reds rate in the top five in runs, homers and stolen bases.

Cincinnati went 12-4 against the Cubs last year on its way to capturing the NL Central Division.

The Reds captured six of seven at Wrigley Field. This is the first meeting this season between the two teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:45 PM

MLB Betting: Totals show slight 'over' lean

The New York Mets continue to be an ’over’ bettor’s best friend, 19-10-1.
It appears that oddsmakers were prepared for a low scoring first five weeks of the season. Totals started with a modest 224-210 'over' lean despite April 2011 being the lowest-scoring opening month in Major League Baseball since 1992.

Teams managed to score just 4.3 runs per game during the first month of the season and I believe it has a direct correlation with the improved testing for performance enhancing drugs.

Some surprising teams show up at the top of the list in terms of betting the 'over' early in the season, with the New York Mets (19-10-1 'over'), Seattle Mariners (18-11-2) and Houston Astros (18-12) taking up three of the four top spots. In examining the top spot a little closer, the Mets are 11-4 'over' at home which is quite a disparity from their 91-79 'under' tally over the last two-plus seasons at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

On the other side of the spectrum, bettors will be interested in knowing that the Tampa Bay Rays (20-10 'under') and Minnesota Twins (19-10) are occupying two of the top three spots in terms of going below the number. Both teams have suffered major injuries in the middle of the lineup, with Rays All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria (oblique) just returning from the 15-day disabled list and Twins All-Star catcher Joe Mauer currently off the field with knee problems.

It’s important to not get blinded by the starting pitcher matchup when determining to play a particular total, as bullpens play a critical role in handicapping a game in today’s age of relief specialists. San Diego (16-14-1 'under') and Pittsburgh (17-12-2 'under') may be unattractive side selections due to their low-profile rosters, but they possess the top two relief units in the league which has resulted in a nice profit for 'under' backers.

Surprisingly enough, bettors that have been looking for some help in playing the 'over' by monitoring the worst bullpens in the league have not had as much success. Baltimore (15-14 'over') owns the worst bullpen in the majors with a 5.40 ERA, but its offense has managed to score just 4.14 runs per game.

Boston (15-12-3 'under) owns a 5.30 bullpen ERA, but its pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic of late, holding opponents to five runs or less each of the last 18 games.

Finally, handicapping a total in baseball can not go without focusing in on the home plate umpire who plays a prominent role in determining the outcome. Leading the way in terms of being a pitcher’s nightmare is Scott Barry (6-0 'over'), who is calling just 60.8 percent of pitches strikes in his contests, resulting in 2.50 home runs per game.

On the other side of the spectrum, Lazaro Diaz (5-1 'under') and Dan Iassogna (5-1 'under') can be categorized as pitcher-friendly. Both are calling strikes at higher than 62 percent while averaging just a single home run in their 12 games combined.

Sports bettors often ignore playing totals in all sports, but baseball and its statistics offers them an edge against the oddsmakers on a daily basis when utilized correctly.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:47 PM

NHL Odds: Boston Bruins have brooms for Flyers

The brooms will be out at TD Garden this Friday night when the Philadelphia Flyers try to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Boston Bruins in their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup. Game time is set for 5 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on VERSUS.

Philadelphia finds itself trailing Boston 3-0 for the second year in a row in the conference semifinals. The main difference this time around is it looks extremely doubtful the Flyers will be able to mount another miraculous comeback after Wednesday night’s 5-1 loss as a 125 road underdog. The total went ‘over’ the 5 ½ goal line.

The team came out completely flat in Game 3 and quickly fell behind 2-0 when the Bruins tagged it for back-to-back goals in the first 63 seconds of the game. Things only got worse from there as Philly still had no answer for beating goalie Tim Thomas.

The Flyers goalie situation continued to be a complete mess as once again Brian Boucher was pulled and replaced this time by Sergei Bobrovsky. The two combined to save 23 of 28 shots. At this point, Boucher is expected to get the start in Game 4.

Philadelphia went into this game without its top defenseman, Chris Pronger, who has been out of the lineup the last two games with a hamstring injury and remains doubtful for Saturday. The Flyers did get Jeff Carter, their top goal scorer, back after he missed the last five games with a knee injury.

His return did little to help an offense that has managed to score just six goals in this series after averaging over three goals a game in the regular season.

Boston appears to be a team on a mission after pulling out a 4-3 overtime win over Montreal as a 175 home favorite in Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs. Since falling behind 0-2 in that series, the Bruins have won seven of their last eight games and are 4-1 on the road, 3-0 at home.

The B's are 5-1 as a favorite and 2-0 as an underdog and have averaged 3.87 goals a game over this span.

Center David Krejci, who scored the game winning goal in overtime in Game 2 and added another on Wednesday night, joins Nathan Horton as the top two goal scorers in the postseason with five apiece. Center Patrice Bergeron leads the team in assists with 10 and total points with 12 and center Brad Marchand has four goals and six assists.

The MVP of this series so far has been Thomas, especially in the third period of Game 2 when he stopped 22 shots. All told in that game, he turned away 52 of 54 shots to preserve the win. He stopped 37 of 38 shots in Game 3 and now has a goals-against-average of 2.13 and a .935 save percentage in 10 playoff games.

Defenseman Adam McQuaid is the only injury concern for the Bruins and remains questionable for Saturday after hitting his head in Monday’s win.

Philadelphia is 2-2 in the playoffs as an underdog and the total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last 10 games. The total has split in Boston's last 10 games, 5-5 'over/under.' Head-to-head, the Bruins have now won six of seven games from the Flyers this season and the last five straight.

The Bruins have clearly been the better team in this series and should be a moderate home favorite in Game 4. Stick with Boston to use the memory of last year’s historic meltdown as motivation to pull off the sweep with a win.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:49 PM

NHL Betting: Sharks push Red Wings to brink

The San Jose Sharks can sweep away the Detroit Red Wings in this Western Conference semifinal series with a victory in Friday’s Game 4. The Sharks took a commanding 3-0 series lead thanks to Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime victory.

San Jose has now defeated the Wings in seven of the last eight postseason meetings, with all seven victories occurring by one goal.

Most offshore sports books monitored by Don Best Sports’ Real-Time Odds believe a sweep in this series won’t happen, as they have installed the Red Wings as 130 home favorites. The total opened at 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus 115).

The Verizon network will provide television coverage beginning at 4:00 p.m. (PT).

There have now been 20 overtime contests during these 2011 playoffs, which is three more than the entire 2010 postseason. The Sharks have gone into an extra session in five of their first nine games during the current playoff campaign, and have captured six of those postseason matches by one goal.

San Jose’s five overtime wins is still five shy of the record held by the 1993 Montreal Canadiens.

The star of Game 3 was San Jose’s Devin Setoguchi. The power forward recorded a three-goal hat trick, including the winning goal at 9:21 of the overtime period.

Ironically, before he could score the game winner, Setoguchi had to sweat out two minutes in the penalty box. Setoguchi was given a questionable holding call on Todd Bertuzzi where he was actually the one who was taken down.

The Red Wings couldn't protect a 3-2 lead in the closing minutes of the third period, as San Jose defenseman Dan Boyle scored the tying goal with 4:08 remaining in regulation. The lead was relinquished largely because the Sharks kept pressing in the third, out-shooting the back-pedaling Red Wings, 16-8.

Detroit outshot the Sharks in overtime, 7-3, and even had a power-play chance during the extra session. The Wings finished with a 41-38 advantage in shots during Game 3, but have been outshot during the series, 121-101.

Though the Wings didn’t connect on the overtime power play, they did manage to score two power play goals in four opportunities. As a result, the Wings are now 3-for-12 with the man advantage in this series. San Jose, also 2-for-4 on the power play in Game 3, is now 4-for-15 in the series.

Niklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk notched the two power play goals for the Wings, while Patrick Eaves registered an even-strength marker in the second period that gave the Wings a brief 2-1 lead.

Two of Setoguchi’s three goals occurred on the power play, including the game’s first marker at 12:57 of the first period.

Jimmy Howard took the loss in goal for the Wings and is now a dismal 1-7 in his last eight playoff games against the Sharks dating to last season.

In fact, Wednesday night's 4-3 overtime loss to the Sharks at Joe Louis Arena occurred exactly a year to the day after last year's 4-3 overtime loss to the Sharks at the Joe. Both times, it spelled the difference between it becoming a series and a potential sweep, with San Jose grabbing a 3-0 lead.

Antti Niemi stopped 38 of Detroit’s 41 shots to register the win. Niemi, the winning goalie in Chicago’s run to last year’s Stanley Cup title, raised his overall ledger this season to 41-20-1-5 with a 2.46 GAA and a .917 save percentage.

If the Wings are fortunate enough to collect a victory Friday, the two squads would play a Sunday contest at San Jose’s HP Pavilion starting at 5 p.m. (PT).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:53 PM

Time for Brooms

May 5, 2011

Just when you think that you might have things figured out in the Stanley Cup Playoff, all hell breaks loose. At least that’s what it looks like to me and my series outlooks. I had the Caps winning against Tampa Bay…same goes for the Red Wings and Flyers. Washington flat out quit, and the other two teams are in serious danger of joining them on Friday night. Let’s look at both must-win situations.

Sharks at Red Wings – 7:05 p.m. EDT, Versus

San Jose could never get past the Red Wings for much of its playoff history. Now the Sharks are just one win away from dispatching Detroit for the second straight year in the postseason after a 4-3 overtime win on Wednesday night as $1.35 road pups (risk $100 to win $135). Devin Setoguchi was dragon slayer in that match with his first career playoff hat trick that includes the winner in extra time.

If you’re Detroit right now, it’s hard to figure out a way to win. The Wings were getting great defense in Games 1 and 2, but no offense. Game 3 saw their attack put up a 3-2 lead after two periods. Yet Jimmy Howard was tapped for four goals on the 38 shots he faced in Game 4.

Nothing is guaranteed for the Sharks right now. We’ve seen teams come back from this deficit before, and San Jose’s defense isn’t that deep. What was most concerning in Game 3 was the fact that they allowed two power play goals. The Sharks’ penalty kill is third-worst of the teams left in the playoffs…that includes the Red Wings and Predators.

The oddsmakers have this series going back to Silicon Valley, listing the Red Wings as $1.30 home favorites with a total of 5 ½. It makes good sense given that Detroit was in the same spot last year and rolled to a 7-1 win to avoid the sweep.

San Jose isn’t a bad wager as a $1.10 road pup. That’s because the Sharks have gone 6-3 straight up and 3-6 on the puck line in their last nine games that they can clinch a series. The ‘under’ is 5-4 in that stretch.

Flyers at Bruins – 8:05 p.m. EDT, Versus (joined in progress)

Here’s another series that I figured the Flyers were primed to run away with after a seven-game win over Buffalo in the first round. It just turns out that they were hurting in two spots that made a big difference.

Philadelphia was able to use the musical goalies to its benefit last year to make the Stanley Cup Final. This series has been awful for Brian Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky as they’ve both had to play in each of the first three games. It’s been particularly painful for Boucher, who is currently sporting a goals against average of 5.26. The funny thing is that we can’t blame Boucher for the pathetic skating and lack of physical play that has guys like Boston’s Brad Marchand look like Andre the Giant. Perhaps Chris Pronger’s hand injury has taken away the Flyers’ edge. Now Philly has to hope that they can repeat last year’s magic of coming back from the 0-3 deficit to win the series. And to tell you the truth, it doesn’t look good.

There isn’t much to complain about for the Bruins right now. Tim Thomas is second only to Tampa Bay’s Dwayne Roloson in GAA of goaltenders still in the playoffs (2.13). Plus, the offense is second to the Lightning with 32 goals in the playoffs. They even picked up an ever elusive power play goal in Game 3; the B’s are now 1-for-32 for the postseason.

For any Philly faithful believe they have a shot in Game 4, the sportsbooks are hear to say they believe you’re just pissing into the wind. Boston is currently posted as a heavy $1.75 home “chalk” (risk $175 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½.

History is also against the Flyers in this situation. Philadelphia is 0-3 SU and PL when posted as a road underdog on a three-game losing streak over the past three years. The ‘over’ is a pristine 3-0 in that roll.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:54 PM

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 6, 2011

Home teams are 5-9
Favorites are 7-7
Favorites that won are 3-4 on the puck line
The 'over' is 7-6-1
First Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thursday Apr. 28, 2011
Predators Canucks 1-0 FAVORITE (-200) UNDER 5

Friday Apr. 29, 2011
Lightning Capitals 4-2 UNDERDOG (+160) OVER 5.5
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5

Saturday Apr. 30, 2011
Bruins Flyers 7-3 UNDERDOG (+125) OVER 5.5
Predators Canucks 2-1 (2OT) UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5

Sunday May 1, 2011
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5
Lightning Capitals 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5.5

Monday May 2, 2011
Bruins Flyers 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+115) UNDER 5.5

Tuesday May 3, 2011
Capitals Lightning 4-3 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5
Canucks Predators 3-2 FAVORITE (-125) PUSH

Wednesday May 4, 2011
Capitals Lightning 5-3 FAVORITE (-110) OVER 5
Flyers Bruins 5-1 FAVORITE (-140) OVER 5.5
Sharks Red Wings 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG (+135) OVER 5.5

Thursday May 5, 2011
Canucks Predators 4-2 FAVORITE (-130) OVER 5

Friday May 6, 2011
Sharks Red Wings
Flyers Bruins

Saturday May 7, 2011
Predators Canucks

Sunday May 8, 2011
Bruins Flyers
Red Wings Sharks

Monday May 9, 2011
Canucks Predators

Tuesday May 10, 2011
Flyers Bruins
Sharks Red Wings

Wednesday May 11, 2011
Predators Canucks

Thursday May 12, 2011
Bruins Flyers
Red Wings Sharks

Winners in BOLD

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:56 PM

Bruins look to sweep Flyers out of playoffs

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

at BOSTON BRUINS

NHL Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Boston leads series 3-0
Puck drops: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -170, Philadelphia +150, Total: 5.5

Boston leads the Eastern Conference Semifinal series 3-0 over Philadelphia and looks to complete the sweep Friday night at home. But the Bruins were in this exact situation last season, and Flyers pulled off the unthinkable, winning four straight games over the B’s to become just the third team in NHL history to erase a 3-0 series deficit and advance to the next round.

This year’s series has been complete domination by the Bruins, as they have outscored Philly 15-6 in the three games. The Flyers are 30-34 all-time in games where they are facing elimination, but they are 6-1 in their last seven such contests. If they want to keep this string going, they have to find some reliable goaltending ASAP. Brian Boucher was pulled in each of the last two games against Boston, one due to ineffectiveness and the other because of an injury. He has only completed two games so far in the playoffs, and is 4-4 with a 3.13 GAA and .904 Save Pct. this postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been any better in relief, posting a 3.30 GAA and .875 Save Pct. in the 2011 playoffs. Third-string goalie Michael Leighton has been the worst of the trio, with a 3.44 GAA and .862 Save Pct in the postseason. It is unclear whether Philly will start Boucher or Bobrvosky for Game 4.

The Bruins have had no such problem figuring out who they’re putting in the nets. Tim Thomas led the NHL with a 2.00 GAA and .938 Save Pct. during the regular season, and his numbers have been nearly as stellar in the postseason – 2.13 GAA and .935 Save Pct. The offensive hero has been David Krejci, who leads Boston with five playoff goals, including four against the Flyers. He also has four assists in the current series to give him eight points and a +6 rating for the three games. Patrice Bergeron is tied for second in the NHL with 12 playoff points (2 G, 10 A). He’s also riding a four-game points streak, which includes five assists in the three games versus Philly.

This series has been a total mismatch, with Boston controlling every facet of the game. The most important part of a successful playoff team is a hot goalie, and (with apologies to Dwayne Roloson and Antti Niemi) there is no other goalie in the world that the Bruins would rather have between the pipes than Thomas. The pick here is for Boston to end this series with another victory in Game 4. This pair of FoxSheets trends also back the Bruins to complete the sweep.

BOSTON is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.1 Units) against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*).

PHILADELPHIA is 23-37 ATS (38.3%, -23.8 Units) revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.9, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 03:58 PM

Sharks look to complete sweep of Detroit Friday

SAN JOSE SHARKS

at DETROIT RED WINGS

NHL Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – San Jose leads series 3-0
Puck drops: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -130, San Jose +110, Total: 5.5

The Red Wings have dug themselves a hole that only three other teams in NHL history have been able to climb out of. Only the 1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders and 2010 Flyers have been able to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, which is what Detroit will try to do starting Friday night, when the Wings host the Sharks for Game 4.

Although San Jose has won three straight games, all of them have been by one goal, including overtime victories in Game 1 and Game 3. The Sharks have been led this series by Antti Niemi, who won the Stanley Cup with Chicago last season. After a shaky first round versus the Kings, Niemi has only allowed five goals in three games, saving 95 of the 100 shots he’s faced this series. There hasn’t been a whole lot of scoring in this series, but Devin Segotuchi lit the lamp three times in Game 3. Segotuchi scored power-play goals in the first and second periods before winning it 9:21 into overtime off a feed from Joe Thornton. It was Thornton’s third assist in the game. Dan Boyle had the other goal, and also assisted on Segotuchi’s first tally.

Detroit has played well in this series, and it finally found a way to put the puck past Niemi with three goals in Game 3. Nicklas Lidstrom scored on the power play late in the first period and assisted on Pavel Datsyuk’s power-play goal late in the second period, which put Detroit up 3-2. Henrik Zetterberg was the other multiple-point player on Detroit with two assists in Wednesday’s loss, giving him three points in the past two games. Jimmy Howard is expected to start in net again after allowing four goals on 38 shots in Game 3. Howard has had a quality series with 113 saves on 121 shots (.934).

Although this series has been extremely close, all the momentum is with the Sharks and Niemi. Detroit could stave off elimination for a night, but I think San Jose is ready to finish them off. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support the Sharks to complete the sweep on Friday night.

SAN JOSE is 14-2 ATS (87.5%, +11.3 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was SAN JOSE 3.3, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*).

SAN JOSE is 22-6 ATS (78.6%, +13.6 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year this season. The average score was SAN JOSE 3.2, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 04:16 PM

Rays look for more road success visiting Baltimore

TAMPA BAY RAYS (17-14)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (14-16)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -115, Tampa Bay +105, Total: 8

The Orioles return home from their seven-game road trip to take on the best road team in baseball.

Tampa Bay is an American League-best 8-4 away from home this year, and dating back to last season, it an MLB-best 55-38 (.591) on the road. That includes a 6-3 mark in Baltimore. They Rays are currently on a five-game road winning streak this season.

Tampa starter James Shields has been Cy Young-caliber so far this year, especially over his past three starts. Shields has allowed two runs over 26 innings in his past three outings, a 0.69 ERA, striking out 28 while walking only four. He struck out 12 over eight innings against the Angels last Saturday, and threw a four-hit shutout in Toronto in his last road start.

But while the Rays have been outstanding away from Tampa, Shields has never been as effective on the road. Since 2009, he has a 4.62 ERA over 15 road stars, as compared to 3.75 in 18 home starts. He has been solid in Baltimore over his career, posting a 3.71 ERA over nine starts (Tampa went 5-4 in those games). But his last start at Camden Yards was ugly, as Shields was touched up for six runs in 4.1 innings.

The O’s will go with lefthander Zach Britton, an early contender for A.L. Rookie of the Year. The 23-year-old groundball specialist has allowed just one run over six innings in each of his past two starts (vs. Boston and on the road against the White Sox). He shut down the Rays in his big-league debut back on April 3, holding them to one run over six innings, striking out six.

This is an interesting pitching matchup. I think the difference is that Shields has been dominant of late, while Britton (just six strikeouts and eight walks over his last 18 innings) has been more of a smoke-and-mirrors guy. Considering the payout, I’m going with Tampa Bay.

The FoxSheets have information working against the Orioles as well, including this four-star trend:

Play Against - Any team (BALTIMORE) - terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 8 runs or more. (77-26 over the last 5 seasons, 74.8%, +46.6 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 04:17 PM

Lee, Phillies look to halt Braves' 5-game win streak

ATLANTA BRAVES (17-15)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (20-9)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -150, Atlanta +140, Total: 7.5

When Cliff Lee and Derek Lowe square off against each other Friday night in Citizens Bank Park, it will be a matchup of contrasting styles that go far beyond the baseball diamond. One pitcher, Lee, had a very strong outing last Sunday night, in a ballgame that eventually got overshadowed by a certain news event which unfolded halfway around the world, you may have heard something about. The other pitcher, Lowe, would very much like to have been out of the news last week, but that plan was squashed when Lowe was arrested in Atlanta last Thursday and charged with DUI. Lowe apologized the next day, but his arrest, combined with the two-week, MLB-imposed suspension of pitching coach Roger McDowell last Sunday stemming from his inappropriate behavior recently at AT&T Park in San Francisco, has cast a shadow over the Braves organization. Friday night, Lowe will try and take a page out of the Cliff Lee book of success, and confine his headline grabbing to his on-field performance.

Lee will try and keep his Phillies, winners of six of their past seven games, the hottest team in the National League. In his last outing against the Mets, Lee pitched seven innings, scattering eight hits, one run, and striking out five en route to a no-decision in a game the Phils eventually lost in extra innings. Lee has not fared well against the Braves in his career, going 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four lifetime starts. In his last outing versus Atlanta on April 8, Lee lasted just 3.1 innings, allowing six runs on 10 hits. This was his shortest outing since he lasted just three innings in a September 2009 loss to the Astros. For the year, Lee is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA, 44 strikeouts and just six walks. While 90% of the league’s hurlers would be fine with those numbers, this isn’t acceptable for Cliff Lee.

When Lee last pitched, the Phillies were struggling to score runs, as they mustered just three runs in the final 23 innings of the Mets series. Fortunately for the Phillies, facing the Washington Nationals this week cured the team’s ailing offense the way chicken soup takes care of the common cold (and the soul). Philly is coming off a sweep of the Nats, outscoring them 18-8 over three games. Nobody’s bat was feeling better by the end of the series than Raul Ibanez, who entered the series in an 0-for-35 drought, hitting .154. Three games later, the leftfielder had raised his average to .214 after going 8-for-12 with two home runs, five RBI and four runs scored. SS Jimmy Rollins also got well versus Washington. After being placed back into the leadoff spot, Rollins went 6-for-13 in the series, raising his average from .271 to .292.

The Braves have responded to the off-field distractions the way seasoned veteran teams do: by putting together a winning streak. With its four-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta has now won five in a row. Lowe will try and make it six straight Friday night. Lowe has pitched very well in the past against Philly, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. But he is only 7-6, while his team is a mere 8-9 in Lowe’s 17 career starts against the Phils. In his only start this season against Philadelphia, Lowe allowed just two runs over seven innings, but was still out-dueled by Cole Hamels as Atlanta went down to defeat 3-0. Lowe had a no-decision in his last start Sunday. Coming just days after his arrest, he appeared to be lacking some focus and sharpness, as he went just five innings, allowing six hits and four runs.

The Braves offense appears to be focused, as they are in the top 10 in the league in runs scored. Five different players lead the team in five different offensive categories, speaking to the team’s balance. Brian McCann tops them with a .304 BA, Jason Heyward has seven home runs, while Martin Prado leads the squad in hits. Atlanta outscored Milwaukee 24-6 in sweeping the Brew Crew. This weekend in Philadelphia, the Atlanta bats will be tested by three of the Phillies big four arms in the starting rotation.

Atlanta has exhibited a very disciplined and effective approach against Cliff Lee over the years. I look for them to continue that success against the lefty. The pick here is for Atlanta to take game one of the series, which is supported by this three-star FoxSheets trend:

Play Against - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (63-39 since 1997.) (61.8%, +35.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 04:19 PM

Indians look to stay hot visiting Angels

CLEVELAND INDIANS (21-9)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (18-14)

First pitch: Friday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Cleveland -115, Los Angeles +105, Total: 8.5

The Indians’ West Coast swing got off to a good start in Oakland, and undefeated Justin Masterson has a chance to keep it going when Cleveland visits the Angels Friday night.

The Indians are shocking the baseball world. They took two of three in Oakland earlier this week and have now won eight of nine. Through 30 games, they’re tied with Philadelphia for baseball’s best record.

A big part of their success has been Masterson. The 26-year-old right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA on the year. The Indians have won all six of his starts this season, and they’ve won his last eight starts dating back to last year. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his past 10 starts, going back to last August, and he’s 7-0 with a 1.97 ERA during that span.

Historically, Masterson has not been good on the road. In 23 road starts since joining the Indians in 2009, he’s 5-11 with a 5.98 ERA (Cleveland dropped 15 of those 23 games). He’s 7-8 with a 3.08 ERA in 22 home starts during that span.

His track record against the Angels is strong though. Masterson is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in four career starts against the Halos, going at least six innings in each of those starts and never allowing more than two runs. Last September in L.A., he held the Angels to one run over seven innings in a Cleveland win.

The Angels will have rookie right-hander Tyler Chatwood on the mound. The 21-year-old has held his own despite being unable to overpower opposing hitters (13 strikeouts and 17 walks through 27.1 innings). His 4.94 ERA is a bit skewed by an ugly start on Sunday in Tampa. It was an emergency start when Jered Weaver got sick, and Chatwood allowed five runs and 11 base runners in four innings.

Chatwood made his major-league debut against Cleveland on April 11, allowing four runs and eight base runners (including two home runs) in five innings. His start was L.A.’s only loss in that three-game set.

They’re not as good as their current record would indicate, but the Indians have a significant advantage in the pitching matchup and that’s enough for me. My pick is Cleveland.

The FoxSheets have a highly-rated trend showing Cleveland’s dominance against weak lineups in 2011:

CLEVELAND is 14-4 (77.8%, +12.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.8, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 05:04 PM

Friday Late Night Tips

May 5, 2011

The Friday baseball card wraps up with three intriguing matchups on the West Coast. The struggling White Sox head to Seattle trying to end their woes, while the Rockies and Giants hook up in San Francisco. We'll start in Southern California with the surging Indians making their second trip to Anaheim to battle the Angels.

Indians at Angels - 10:05 PM EST

The first team to 20 victories in the American League isn't the Yankees or Red Sox. Instead, it's Manny Acta's Indians, who have won seven of eight games to take firm control of the AL Central race. Cleveland's road swing through California continues in Orange County as the Tribe battles an Angels' team returning home after a 4-3 East Coast trip.

Cleveland is listed as an away favorite in the series opener with Justin Masterson (5-0, 2.25 ERA) taking the mound. Masterson has been brilliant in six starts, all quality outings. The former Red Sox right-hander has tossed at least six innings in each trip to the hill, while the 'over' has cashed in each of his last four starts. Masterson shut down the Halos in their last meeting in September 2010, limiting Los Angeles to six hits and one earned run in six innings of a 6-1 rout.

The Angels send out Tyler Chatwood (2-1, 4.94 ERA), who made an emergency start at Tampa Bay last Sunday in place of the ailing Jered Weaver. Chatwood lasted just four innings as he allowed nine hits and five earned runs, but the Angels rallied for a 6-5 win as a $1.30 underdog. The Halos are 1-2 in Chatwood's three home starts, including a 4-0 setback on April 11 as the righty gave up all four runs.

White Sox at Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

Chicago's offense has been abysmal recently as the Sox look to improve on a 4-17 mark the last 21 games. The task isn't easy with Ozzie Guillen's club traveling to the Pacific Northwest against the Mariners, who send out their reigning Cy Young Award winner in Felix Hernandez.

Seattle's offense isn't setting the world on fire with a .228 average, but the pitching staff has helped the M's win six of their last eight contests. Hernandez (3-2, 3.21 ERA) received a no-decision in his last start, a 3-2 loss at Boston as Carl Crawford delivered the walk-off hit against the M's bullpen. King Felix is 3-1 in his last four starts against the White Sox since 2009, including a pair of scoreless efforts in victories at Safeco Field.

Phil Humber (2-3, 3.06 ERA) turned heads in his near no-hit performance at Yankee Stadium on April 25, limiting the Yankees to one hit in seven innings of a 2-0 shutout. The Chicago right-hander allowed two early runs in his last outing against the Orioles, but still delivered a quality start in a 6-2 defeat. The Sox offense hasn't helped their staff by scoring two runs or less in 12 of the last 19 games ('under' is 12-6-1 in this stretch).

Rockies at Giants - 10:15 PM EST

San Francisco returns to the Bay Area following a 5-5 road trip against the Pirates, Nationals, and Mets. The offense shut down in Thursday's 5-2 loss at New York as the Giants picked up only five hits, while scoring two runs or less in seven of the last nine games. The Giants entertain the Rockies, as Colorado looks to improve on a league-best 11-4 road mark.

Ubaldo Jimenez (0-2, 7.20 ERA) has struggled to find the magic of last season in which he started 15-1 in the first half. Jimenez is nursing a right thumb injury that plagued him throughout the first month, while the right-hander has failed to put together a quality start in four outings. After splitting four starts against the Giants last season, Jimenez allowed four earned runs in five innings as the Rockies lost, 6-3 earlier this month as $1.40 home 'chalk' to San Francisco.

The Giants send out Matt Cain (2-2, 3.53 ERA), who is making only his second start at AT&T Park this season. Cain is coming off a loss in last start at Washington, even though it was the fifth quality outing in six trips to the mound. The only non-quality start came at Coors Field on April 20 as the Rockies avoided a sweep with a 10-2 pounding, while Colorado racked Cain by plating six runs in 4.2 innings. Cain dominated the Rockies in two home starts last season, allowing one earned run in 16 innings as the Giants won each meeting.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 05:06 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

May 6, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Angels are 0-12 since June 20, 2010 as a dog after scoring between 6-14 runs for a net profit of $1090 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Padres are 0-10-1 OU since July 27, 2010 as a favorite and it is the first game of the series when not off a shutout for a net profit of $980 when playing the under

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 8-0 OU since May 12, 2009 when Jordan Zimmermann starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 0-15 O/U (-3.9 rpg)since April 17, 2010 when they did not allow a walk in a regular season game last time out and had less than 13 hits.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Indians are 0-8 since June 06, 2010 on the road when they won by one run in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 12, 2010 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

The Mets are 8-0 since April 20, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they had fewer teamleft- on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $835.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-06-2011, 05:08 PM

Money-Line or Run-Line?

May 6, 2011

It's easy enough to locate the MLB standings every day. Just open up any sports page, or click into any sports website worth its salt, and the standings are easy to find.

Wagerers value won-loss records, too, but there's a different measuring device most players want to be abreast of as well. Money line and run line standings provide an extra barometer for handicappers to consult as they make their daily selections. Although shorter-term calculations are going to provide more illuminating as the season progresses, with the campaign reaching its one-month point this weekend we thought it a good idea to list the sorts of standings that are really meaningful...vs. the money-line and run-line.

Following records are through games of May 5...

MONEY LINE STANDINGS

AL WEST

LA Angels +537
Texas +6
Seattle -9
Oakland -229

AL WEST SINCE APRIL 30...

Seattle +151
LA Angels +132
Oakland -144
Texas -189

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland +1518
Kansas City +533
Detroit -354
Minnesota -631
Chicago White Sox -1248

AL CENTRAL SINCE APRIL 30...

Cleveland +333
Kansas City +303
Minnesota +64
Detroit +19
Chicago White Sox -443

AL EAST

Tampa Bay +135
NY Yankees +113
Baltimore +2
Toronto -136
Boston -1124

AL EAST SINCE APRIL 30...

Tampa Bay +45
Baltimore +37
NY Yankees -42
Boston -209
Toronto -286

NL WEST

Colorado +295
Arizona +73
San Francisco -277
LA Dodgers -370
San Diego -661

NL WEST SINCE APRIL 30...

Arizona +103
San Diego +84
San Francisco -7
Colorado -310
LA Dodgers -440

NL CENTRAL

Pittsburgh +496
St. Louis -27
Cincinnati -293
Chicago Cubs -311
Houston -465
Milwaukee -645

NL CENTRAL SINCE APRIL 30...

Pittsburgh +231
Houston +175
Chicago Cubs +164
Cincinnati -7
St. Louis -72
Milwaukee -625

NL EAST

Florida +887
Philadelphia +779
Washington +35
Atlanta +22
NY Mets -500

NL EAST SINCE APRIL 30...

Atlanta +347
Philadelphia +139
Florida +87
NY Mets -75
Washington -185

RUN LINE STANDINGS

AL WEST

Oakland +616
Texas +323
LA Angels +234
Seattle -533

AL WEST SINCE APRIL 30...

Seattle +102
LA Angles +44
Oakland -74
Texas -77

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland +1751
Kansas City +139
Detroit -250
Minnesota -366
Chicago White Sox -990

AL CENTRAL SINCE APRIL 30...

Kansas City +379
Detroit +85
Cleveland +26
Minnesota -1
Chicago White Sox -210

AL EAST

Toronto +123
NY Yankees -391
Boston -369
Tampa Bay -573
Baltimore -747

AL EAST SINCE APRIL 30...

Boston +126
Toronto +23
Baltimore -202
NY Yankees -271
Tampa Bay -273

NL WEST

Colorado +912
LA Dodgers -334
San Diego -713
San Francisco -961
Arizona -1162

NL WEST SINCE APRIL 30...

Colorado +152
San Diego -103
San Francisco -176
LA Dodgers -289
Arizona -337

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis +761
Pittsburgh +443
Cincinnati +23
Chicago Cubs -379
Houston -383
Milwaukee -613

NL CENTRAL SINCE APRIL 30...

Chicago Cubs +281
Pittsburgh +263
Houston +247
St. Louis +66
Cincinnati -167
Milwaukee -598

NL EAST

Atlanta +804
Florida +648
Philadelphia +418
NY Mets -60
Washington -582

NL EAST SINCE APRIL 30...

Atlanta +354
Philadelphia +153
NY Mets +65
Florida +8
Washington -87

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