The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

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MLB Betting Preview: Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Colorado Rockies own the best road mark in baseball.
But one place the Rockies have difficulty is Arizona’s Chase Field. The Rockies have lost eight of their past 10 at Chase through this past Tuesday. They have scored three or fewer runs in seven of those games while batting less than .230.

The Rockies conclude their three-game series at Chase on Thursday night at 6:40 (PT) with a scheduled pitching matchup of Jason Hammel versus Ian Kennedy.

Hammel has allowed only two runs in his last 13 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old right-hander is 3-1 on the season with a 3.23 ERA.

Hammel is off a 4-1 victory this past Saturday night against Pittsburgh. Hammel surrendered a home run to Andrew McCutchen, the first batter he faced, but then pitching six scoreless innings in defeating Paul Maholm as a 170 home favorite. Hammel was aided by three double plays.

The combined five runs easily went ‘under’ the nine-run total.

McCutchen wasn’t that impressed with Hammel’s performance, though.

"He pitched well but he gave us pitches to hit," McCutchen said. "Throughout the game, we were hitting the ball hard. That’s why they were able to get those double plays, because we were hitting the ball so hard up the middle or to first base. We were just missing the ball a little bit."

Colorado has won 10 of its last 12 versus NL West foes when Hammel has started.

Kennedy worked into the eighth at home against the Cubs in his last start before yielding to his bullpen. He left the game tied, three-all, with Chicago plating two in the ninth for a 5-3 win. The right-hander tossed a complete game, 10-K shutout vs. the Phillies the start before that.

He faced the Rockies in his first start of the season, not figuring into the decision in Arizona's 7-6 victory at Coors Field. Kennedy faced Colorado five times last season with the D-Backs 3-2 in the outings.

Arizona has one of the worst home earned run averages in the league at 5.27 entering the series against Colorado. Closer J.J. Putz has been doing his job, though, with seven consecutive saves to open the season.

The Rockies also have been getting outstanding relief pitching. Closer Huston Street is 10-for-10 in save opportunities, set-up man Rafael Betancourt was among the leaders in holds and Matt Lindstrom has the lowest ERA on the staff at 0.77 through this past Tuesday.

Colorado has gone ‘over’ the total 59 percent during its first 28 games. The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of the Rockies’ first 12 away matchups. Colorado has gone above the total in 10 of Hammel’s last 13 outings.

Even though Chase Field is a good hitter’s park, the ‘under’ has cashed in 10 of the past 14 meetings between the Rockies and Diamondbacks in Arizona, including seven of the past nine times going into Game 2 of the series.

Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. The home team has won 10 of the past 11 times when Eddings has been behind the plate. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in games Eddings has been the home plate umpire. Last year, the ‘under’ cashed in 20 of the 30 games Eddings was behind the plate.

The weather forecast is for temperatures in the 90s with a zero percent chance of rain and a slight cross wind.

Following this game, the Rockies go on the road for a three-game series against San Francisco beginning Friday before returning to Denver for an eight-game homestand.

The Diamondbacks start a nine-game road trip after this game beginning on Friday against San Diego.

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MLB Odds: Florida Marlins, Cardinals end set

The ’over’ is 5-2 in Hunter Wendelstedt’s seven plate assignments this season.
The St. Louis Cardinals were able to cool off the Florida Marlins on Tuesday with a 7-5 victory, but they will face the hottest pitcher in baseball on Thursday when Josh Johnson takes the mound for the visitors in the finale of a four-game series at Busch Stadium.

Thursday's matinee in St. Louis is scheduled for a 10:45 a.m. (PT) first pitch.

Florida had won six of the previous eight meetings with the Cardinals and six of eight overall before Tuesday's defeat. The Marlins will now turn to their ace in Johnson (3-0 with a National League-best 0.88 ERA), who has allowed only one run and 11 hits in his last four starts covering 28 1/3 innings.

He is coming off consecutive 117-pitch outings, which might be the only concern for potential Florida backers heading into this game along with the bullpen.

Johnson scattered five hits over seven innings last time out at Cincinnati on Saturday, but reliever Edward Mujica failed to register an out and saw the Reds score three runs on four hits to blow the lead. The Marlins ended up losing that game 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th inning, crushing those bettors who had money on them at -116.

Johnson received at least five runs of support in four of his previous five starts.

Florida managed to win the other two games against Cincinnati though and has not lost a series since dropping two of three to New York to start the season. Johnson has made just two road starts this year, going 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA. He is also 1-1 lifetime against St. Louis with a 2.93 ERA.

The Cardinals will send Jake Westbrook to the mound off his second straight solid outing, both resulting in wins. Westbrook (2-2, 6.53 ERA) did not last more than six innings in either of those starts, but he gave up just two runs and eight hits total over 12 innings of work.

He pitched less than six innings in each of his first four starts, surrendering three runs or more each time.

Betting St. Louis in Westbrook’s last start at Atlanta on Saturday netted +146 even though he did not walk away with the victory. The Cards trailed 2-0 when he left the game but rallied for three runs in the last two innings to pull out a 3-2 win.

The ‘under’ has cashed in Westbrook’s last two outings after the total went ‘over’ in each of his first four starts.

Both teams have seen high-scoring results in their recent games overall in addition to the previous five meetings heading into Wednesday’s action, with the ‘over’ going 4-1 after the ‘under’ cashed four straight times. The ‘over’ was 7-1-1 in the past nine games for the Marlins and 7-1 in the previous eight for the Cardinals.

Thursday's weather forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of afternoon t-storms with a high of 67. Hunter Wendelstedt will work the plate in the series finale. Home underdogs are 2-0 in his plate assignments this season with the 'over' 5-2

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NY Yankees, Tigers close MLB betting series

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers conclude a four-game series with Thursday’s matchup. New York currently resides atop the American League East standings, while the Tigers are below .500 and in the middle of the AL Central pack.

The Bronx Bombers already have a stellar +37 scoring differential, posting 146 runs while yielding 109. Detroit is at -22, scoring 124 runs while surrendering 146.

These teams split the first two games of this series, while New York took two of three games at home to start the season. The Yankees are now 6-2 the past eight meetings with the Tigers, while the ‘over’ has gone 6-1-1.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened New York as a slight 115 road favorite over Detroit, with the total set at nine.

Thursday’s contest is slated to start at 10:05 a.m. PT from Detroit’s Comerica Park. The forecast calls for sunny skies, with a high of 65 degrees and a low of 50.

New York hurler A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.93 ERA) got back on the winning track with Saturday’s home triumph over Toronto as 149 ‘chalk,’ 5-4. The 12-year veteran went six innings, allowing four runs on nine hits (one home run) with no walks and four strikeouts on just 82 pitches.

The combined nine runs landed directly on the closing total. The Yankees had dropped his previous two starts.

Burnett beat the Tigers April 2 as a 182 home favorite, 10-6, while the combined 16 runs soared ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total. The 34-year-old was reached for three runs on five hits (one home run) with a walk and six strikeouts over five innings and 86 pitches.

New York is just 1-7 in Burnett’s previous eight road starts, while the ‘over’ is 6-2-1 his last nine starts overall.

Detroit right-hander Rick Porcello (1-2, 4.25 ERA) picked up a no-decision in Saturday’s effort against Cleveland. The 22-year-old pitched seven innings, surrendering two runs on seven hits (two home runs) with a walk and seven strikeouts on 100 pitches.

The Tigers eventually dropped that matchup as a 110 road underdog, 3-2, while the combined five runs went ‘under’ the nine-run closing total. The ‘under’ has now cashed in his past two performances. Detroit is now 1-7 its last seven games overall.

Porcello faced the Yankees twice last season, splitting those two contests. The two-year veteran went a combined 12 innings, yielding six runs on 10 hits with six walks and four strikeouts. The Tigers prevailed as a 129 home underdog, 2-0, while losing as a 219 road ‘dog, 11-5.

Thursday’s home-plate umpire will be Tim Tschida, who has already called seven games this season. During those outings, the ‘over’ is 5-2 with an average of 11.7 runs per game, 9.1 walks and 14.0 strikeouts.

New York continues a seven-game road trip after this contest with three games against Texas. Detroit follows this brief four-game homestand with a six-game road trip versus Toronto and Minnesota.

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Thursday Afternoon Tips

May 4, 2011


It’s a light night in the NHL and NBA playoffs on Thursday, but not in Major League Baseball for Cinco de Mayo. We’ve got 12 games on the board in the big leagues with plenty of businessman’s specials to bet one. Our focus will start off in the Motor City with a battle between the Tigers and Yankees, while Rays wrap up their home series against Toronto. And it’ll finish up at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals play host to the Marlins.

Yankees at Tigers – 1:05 p.m. EDT

This series has been even-handed through the first two games, with each side taking a win. The Yanks need these wins because the Rays don’t show much in the way of cooling off. And the Tigers are looking to just get close to .500 for a shot at getting into the American League Central race.

New York will send A.J. Burnett (4-1, 3.93) out to the mound on Thursday afternoon. Burnett looks like he is well on his way to being a dominant No. 2 in the Bombers’ rotation. He survived for six innings and gave up four earned runs in a 5-4 win against the Blue Jays in the Bronx last Saturday. And he pitched eight strong innings of three-hit, one-run ball in a 2-0 loss at home to the White Sox in his start on April 25. Burnett has enjoyed a great deal of success against Detroit, going 4-1 record in seven career starts. What could cause people to look at an ‘over’ play in this game is the fact that he has an earned run average of 7.07 in those starts.

The Tigers will counter with Rick Porcello (1-2, 4.25) for the third game of this series. Porcello has been coming into his won over his last three starts, allowing just four earned runs and striking out 17 batters.

The early lines for this game have the Yankees listed as $1.25 road favorites (risk $125 to win $100) with a total of nine. New York has gone just 3-3 straight up and on the run line in this role, with the ‘under’ posting a 4-2 mark. Detroit has enjoyed being a home pup this year with a 3-1 SU and RL record.

Blue Jays at Rays – 1:10 p.m. EDT

It’s been night and day for the Rays since Manny Ramirez retired and awoke the legend of Sam Fuld. Tampa Bay has gone 16-8 in its last 24 games to pull within scratching distance of New York in the AL East standings. Toronto is just trying to stay relevant in the month of May as they stare a slump square in the face.

The Blue Jays turn to southpaw Ricky Romero (2-3, 3.00) for the series finale. Romero is coming off of a good effort against the Yanks on April 29, pitching six innings and allowing just two runs. He also knows that he can pitch well against the Rays by giving up two runs and striking out 10 in seven innings at Rogers Centre on April 24. Toronto has gone 1-3 in Romero’s last four starts against the Rays.

David Price (3-3, 3.95) takes the hill for Tampa Bay with some determination. Price lasted just 4.1 innings last Friday night in an 8-5 loss to the Angels. History shows that he should bounce back nicely in this spot. Price has failed to last five innings in a loss twice in his short career. The Rays won both of the games he started after that short outing.

The Rays have been installed as $1.50 home favorites with a total of 7 ½ on Thursday afternoon. Day games at Tropicana Field aren’t a locked-in win for Tampa Bay this year, having gone 2-4 as a home “chalk” in day games this season. Plus, they’re 0-2 when you tighten that situation to include facing left handed pitchers.

Marlins at Cardinals – 1:45 p.m. EDT

The Fish are keeping close with the Phillies in the National League East, which still isn’t enough to make people appear like they give a damn in South Florida. Meanwhile, St. Louis looks like they’re winning the NL Central by default when you look at how each team in the division is doing right now.

Florida will finish off this four-game set with ace hurler Josh Johnson (3-0, 0.88) taking the mound. Not many guys you can pencil in for a quality start every time, but Johnson is just about there. He has lasted at least seven innings in his last four starts, allowing just one earned run. Johnson has gone 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA in two career starts against the Cards.

The Cardinals will entrust Jake Westbrook (2-2, 6.53) with the ball, which isn’t the death wish that it once had been this season. The former Indian has seemingly turned on the Charlie Sheen “winning” switch with two straight starts that lasted six innings that were wins for St. Louis. Westbrook has fared well in two career starts versus Florida, going 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA.

The Marlins are getting the love in the early lines for the game as they’re posted as $1.40 road favorites with a total of 7 ½. This isn’t good news for the Fish as they’re 2-8 in their last 10 games as road day faves. And when Johnson is on the mound, Florida is 1-3.

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MLB Betting Notes

May 4, 2011

We don’t think of home field being that much of an edge in baseball in the same manner which it is for basketball and football. For the Anaheim Angels -- I refuse to say Los Angeles -- they‘re sitting in first place with a losing record at home (6-7) while doing most of their damage on the road (10-5).

After starting the season losing three of four at Kansas City, they have gone on a road tear winning four of five at Tampa Bay on two separate visits, sweeping at Chicago, took two of three at Texas and now start a four game series at Boston.

The Boston series becomes critical for the Angels' psyche because the Sox swept them in Anaheim last weekend. In that series, Dan Haren took his first loss of the season, but Boston was able to avoid red hot Jared Weaver who would go on to shutout the A’s the very next day after Boston left town.

The flu-like symptoms that caused Weaver to be scratched from his Sunday start almost looks to be too convenient. Even though it’s only May, it’s not improbable to believe that Mike Scioscia wanted his best being represented on the mound to avoid what happened the last time the teams met. Because of past history between the teams facing each other often in the post season, these matchups do have some importance for the future.

The Rays also have a losing record at home (7-9) while winning regularly on the road (8-4). They have been on of my favorite teams to bet because they are sound in almost every category. Even their revamped bullpen, with no holdovers from 2010, has been as steady as one could expect from a brand new staff.

The Phillies have been good at home and away, but the other NL divisional leaders seem to like the road much better. The Cardinals have been less than stellar at Busch stadium (6-6) while pounding the ball on the road (10-6). Even though they have played four more games on the road, the Cardinals have hit 12 more home runs and have a slugging percentage .120 higher (.495 to .375). The Red Birds batting average is .52 points higher on the road.

Colorado has played the same amount of games home (7-6) and away (10-3), but their stats aren’t as telling like the Cardinals. We all think of the Rockies mashing the ball with Troy Tulowitzski and Carlos Gonzalez, but they’re the 23rd worst hitting team in baseball at a .239 clip. What has made them so good is consistent pitching, both from their starters and bullpen. Their team ERA is .47 points lower on the road and the bullpen has converted eight saves.

Indians Road Woes to Come?
The Indians have been excellent at home (13-2) while going 6-6 on the road. Their only home losses came in their first two games of the year to the White Sox. Since then they have reeled off an amazing 13 straight home wins. The wins can be somewhat devalued because of who they did it all against, some of the worst teams in baseball during April. Teams like Baltimore, Minnesota, Kansas City and Detroit have been the teams Cleveland have swept over that run.

Two of those teams, the Royals and Twins, won their series when Cleveland got on the road. This week the Indians go west to face the two best pitching rotations in the AL, beginning Tuesday at Oakland and then Anaheim Friday.

Two of the best young pitchers in the game, Josh Tomlin (4-0) and Justin Masterson (5-0), will be ripe to bet against while on the road. Tomlin has to face Trevor Cahill (4-0) on Wednesday and Masterson goes up against Weaver (6-0) Saturday night. In two of their other games, the Indians also have to face Brett Anderson (2.95 ERA) and Dan Haren (1.23 ERA). Their only luck on the trip is that they don’t have to face Gio Gonzalez’ killer curve ball.

I would be very surprised if the Indians came back home next week with more than two wins making them a great team to bet against this week. It also wouldn’t be much of a shock if they came home empty handed, which may cause me to bet against Cleveland in every game.

May-Day
For the second time in team history, the Florida Marlins hit five home runs in the same game from five different players on Sunday at Cincinnati. One of those players was Hanley Ramirez (.200 BA) who went deep for the first time this season. We don’t think of Ramirez as a home run hitter, but he has had a succession of good power years hitting 17, 29, 33, 24 and 21 coming into 2011. When thinking about how little of an impact he has made hitting out of the No. 3 hole and where the Marlins are -- nipping at the Phillies in the NL East -- it makes their accomplishments this year even a greater achievement.

The Twins put 1B Justin Morneau in the No. 3 hole Sunday and he responded with his first home run of the season. Unlike Ramirez, Morneau is a power hitter, but like Ramirez, Morneau is not hitting (.225 BA). It’s obvious that he still has lingering affects from a concussion that knocked him out of the 2010 season. Either that, or he is mysteriously experiencing a power outage like we have seen from quite a few players since the 2009 season. Hmmm, wonder what that could be.

Carl Crawford is still hitting an awful .168 for the season, but the new month began with his best day as a Red Sox player where he had the walk-off single against Seattle. For the month Crawford is now hitting. 500 and I would expect that moment Sunday to be the major turning point on his season. Boston has had several walk-off hits before, but they treated this one, because of Crawford’s slump, like they had just won the World Series. Look for Crawford to soon be elevated to the No. 2 hole and for him to start hitting like everyone knows he can. I would say .380 for month would be a very fair estimation.

As the new month dawns, I’m hopeful that my young pitchers don’t fail me. I’ll already be betting against Masterson and Tomlin this week, but my two other big winners this year have been Baltimore’s Zach Britton (5-1) and Toronto’s Kyle Drabek (2-1).

Britton got the win Sunday against the White Sox and is getting it done with just great pitching using his sinker to get easy outs. He hasn’t overwhelmed anyone yet, but it’s apparent that his team seems to play much better when he’s on the mound.

Drabek finally had the luck run out Saturday at Yankee stadium when he lasted only 2.1 innings giving up five runs in a 5-4 loss. His problem all season has been control, but he has been getting out trouble all year until Saturday when his four walks caught up with him. Because of the short outing, his ERA skyrocketed to 4.45. Nevertheless, cashing in five straight games with him to start the year was pretty nice and made up for my personal loss with him Saturday.

As for the near future for Drabek, he’ll face Phil Coke and the Tigers Friday night in Toronto. I like Drabek better at home, but I know because of the short outing Saturday that he could be gun-shy around the plate even more making him more apt to allowing runs. But the real dilemma is that Phil Coke is pitching who has been a great pitcher to bet against as his team has lost four the last five games he’s started. That might be a day-of decision depending on how the Tigers perform the next few games.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/04/11 15-*11-*0 57.69% +*2495 Detail
05/03/11 12-*15-*1 44.44% -*2040 Detail
05/02/11 8-*6-*2 57.14% +*1120 Detail
05/01/11 12-*17-*1 41.38% -*2675 Detail
Totals 47-*49-*4 48.96% -*1100

Thursday, May 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 12:35 PM ET Cincinnati -143 500
Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 1:05 PM ET NY Yankees -108 500
Detroit - Over 9 500

Toronto - 1:10 PM ET Toronto +130 500
Tampa Bay - Under 7.5 500

San Francisco - 1:10 PM ET San Francisco -108 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 1:35 PM ET LA Angels +151 500
Boston - Under 9 500

Florida - 1:45 PM ET Florida -124 500
St. Louis - Under 7 500

Baltimore - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City -106 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

Cleveland - 3:35 PM ET Cleveland +171 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Washington +228 500
Philadelphia - Under 7 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee +115 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -113 500
Arizona - Under 9 500

Texas - 10:10 PM ET Texas -116 500
Seattle - Over 7 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum Phillips!

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Rangers-Mariners finish 3-game set Thursday


TEXAS RANGERS (17-14)

at SEATTLE MARINERS (14-17)


First pitch: Thursday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -120, Seattle +110, Total: 7

The Rangers’ A.L. West road trip hasn’t gone as planned, but one of the positives was Colby Lewis’ best start of the year on Saturday. He’ll have a chance to keep Texas on top of the division when he faces the Mariners Thursday night.

After an outstanding 2010 that included some postseason heroics, Lewis struggled badly in April. His velocity was down, and he had his routine interrupted by a paternity leave halfway through the month.

But the right-hander seemed to find his form last Saturday in Oakland. He held the A’s to two runs over eight innings, striking out six while walking only one in his best start of the season. Lewis was outstanding over four starts against Seattle last year, posting a 1.55 ERA against the Mariners while Texas won three of those starts. He threw nine shutout innings, striking out 10, in a no-decision in Seattle last April 30, and allowed three runs over six innings, but struck out nine at Safeco in a no-decision last August.

Seattle will go with right-hander Jason Vargas. A back-of-the-rotation arm, he’s allowed 10 runs in 12 innings over his past two starts (home against Oakland and at Boston) and enters Thursday with a 5.45 ERA. Vargas has been effective pitching at home since joining the Mariners in 2009. In 26 home starts, he’s 8-8 with a 3.41 ERA (as opposed to 4-12 with a 5.40 ERA in 25 road starts for the M’s).

Vargas was sharp the last time he faced Texas last September, going six innings without allowing an earned run in a no-decision. He’s made six career starts against the Rangers and allowed five runs in three of them. The Mariners lost five of those six starts.

The Rangers also might not miss MVP outfielder Josh Hamilton too much against Vargas. Hamilton has just a single and a walk in 11 career plate appearances against him.

I don’t think Vargas will be able to hold down the Texas bats enough on Thursday. Lewis seems to be back on track, and this Seattle offense won’t be able to do much against him in spacious Safeco. My pick is Texas.

The FoxSheets have more reasons to pick against the Mariners, including:

SEATTLE is 12-40 (23.1%, -29.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 2.8, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 3*).

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Rockies-D'backs square off in rubber match


COLORADO ROCKIES (18-10)

at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (13-16)


First pitch: Thursday, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -115, Colorado +105, Total: 9

Its bats finally showed some signs of life on Wednesday, and now Colorado will look to build on that momentum Thursday night in Arizona.

The Rockies had been struggling at the plate. Last weekend they scored just eight runs over a three-game series in their hitter-friendly home park against a Pittsburgh staff that’s one of baseball’s worst. They followed it up with just three runs in Arizona Tuesday night, facing very-hittable lefty Joe Saunders.

On Wednesday night they finally generated some offense. They scored six runs in five innings to chase D’backs starter Barry Enright, and had 14 batters reach base in a 6-4 win.

But after facing bottom-of-the-rotation arms in Saunders and Enright, Colorado will get Arizona ace Ian Kennedy on Thursday. Despite one disastrous start on the season (nine runs allowed over three innings against St. Louis on April 13), Kennedy is still 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA, and Arizona has won four of his six starts. He’s been sharp in his last two outings, throwing a three-hit shutout against Philadelphia on April 25, then holding the Cubs to three runs over 7.2 innings on Saturday. The right-hander has made six career starts against the Rockies, posting a 3.66 ERA while Arizona has won four of those starts. He’s gotten a no-decision in all three of his home starts against Colorado, but the Diamondbacks won each of those games.

The Rockies will have the red-hot Jason Hammel on the mound. The right-hander has allowed one run in each of his last two starts (6.2 innings at Florida, and seven against the Pirates). His track record against Arizona is spotty though. He held the Diamondbacks to two runs over 5.1 IP last May, but allowed 10 base runners in that game. Last April, he allowed five runs in three innings. Despite pitching his home games in hitter-friendly Coors Field, Hammel has actually been less effective on the road since the start of 2010 (4-7 with a 5.23 ERA).

I’m not sure the Rockies are over their recent struggles at the plate, and having to face a solid pitcher like Kennedy should bear that out. Arizona should score enough off of Hammel, and with the money line almost even I’m going with Arizona.

The FoxSheets have some support for the D’backs as well, including:

Play On - Home teams (ARIZONA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (130-66 over the last 5 seasons, 66.3%, +70.7 units. Rating = 4*).

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Preds try to pull even with Canucks in Game 4


VANCOUVER CANUCKS

at NASHVILLE PREDATORS


NHL Playoffs - Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 – Vancouver leads series 2-1
Puck drops: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Vancouver -125, Nashville +105, Total: 5

The collective sigh you heard coming from the Great Northwest, was the entire city of Vancouver after Ryan Kesler netted the game-winner 10:45 into OT to give the Canucks a 2-1 series lead. Nashville will look to tie the series on Thursday or they will face elimination going back to Vancouver for Game 5.

Vancouver finally seemed to break its offensive troubles in Game 3. After scoring just two combined goals in the first two games of the series, the Canucks managed to put three past Pekka Rinne on Tuesday, while racking up 47 shots on goal. Ryan Kesler finally ended his playoff drought, tying the game in the second period, assisting on a goal in the third, and burying the game-winner in OT, snapping his 17-game playoff streak without a goal. The Canucks have a 2-1 series lead with hardly any production from the Brothers’ Sedin. Daniel and Henrik have one combined point (an assist) in their last four games. Henrik now has gone 16 straight games without a goal going back to the regular season.

Very few people understood just how good a team the Predators had until they defeated the Ducks in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. In Pekka Rinne they have a goaltender who can single-handedly take a team to the finals. However, while they managed to put the puck past Anaheim’s goaltenders, scoring on Roberto Luongo has been a bit tougher. If the Predators can’t find a way to consistently put the puck past Luongo, then this series will be over quickly.

The Predators could use a boost from their power play, which went 0-for-3 in Game 3 and not only hasn't connected in this series, but is 0-for-26 against the Canucks for the season, including four regular-season matchups. If the Preds don’t fix their power-play soon, the Canucks will finish this series in five games. I’m taking Vancouver to hold the Preds down and take a 3-1 lead back home.

The FoxSheets show this three-star trend siding with the Canucks on Thursday.

VANCOUVER is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.1 Units) in road games after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games this season. The average score was VANCOUVER 3.7, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*).

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NHL Betting: Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators

The lone game on Thursday’s NHL playoff slate features a Western Conference semifinal matchup between the heavily favored Vancouver Canucks and the pesky Nashville Predators. The puck drops from Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena at 5:30 p.m. (PT), with the Verizon network providing television coverage.

Though Vancouver entered this series as the No. 1 seed and a hefty 270 series favorite, the series has been anything but one-sided. All three games have been decided by one goal, with the last two going into overtime.

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports’ Real-Time Odds have installed the Canucks as 125 road favorites for Game 4, with the total set at five ‘under’ (minus 125).

The Canucks took a 2-1 series lead thanks to Tuesday’s 3-2 overtime victory as 115 road favorites. The combined five goals landed directly on the closing total, ending a string of six straight ‘under’ games between the Canucks and Predators.

The win allowed Vancouver to improve to a sizzling 25-9 in its last 34 road endeavors and to 7-2 in the last nine trips to Nashville. The ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in the Music City.

Vancouver forward Ryan Kesler scored the winner at 10:45 of the first overtime period when he tipped in a Mikael Samuelsson point shot. The goal, Kesler's second of the night, came with Nashville defenseman Shea Weber off serving a hooking penalty that the Predators and their fans didn't think he deserved.

Kesler snapped a lengthy playoff drought with his two goals. He also assisted on Vancouver's other goal by line-mate Chris Higgins. A 41-goal scorer in the regular season, Kesler had entered the game without a goal in Vancouver's first nine playoff games.

Though the winning goal might have been tainted by a ticky-tack penalty, the Canucks did deserve the result based on a steep territorial advantage. Vancouver outshot the Preds 47-30 and was the better team for most of the night. The Canucks have now outshot the Predators in the first three games of the series by a combined 110-96.

Nashville has outshot Vancouver once in the series, garnering a 46-33 advantage in its Game 2 win.

Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault shuffled all four of his forward lines for Tuesday night's game and it was the trio of Kesler, Mason Raymond and Higgins that made the difference. They were Vancouver's best line from start to finish as the Sedin twins had another largely ineffective offensive night.

Vancouver had managed just one goal on Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne in each of the first two games of this series and the way the game started it looked like he might thwart the Canucks again.

Vancouver had the first nine shots of the game, but couldn't beat Rinne. When Legwand scored a short-handed goal at the 10:18 mark of the first period, the Preds had the lead and some life. Legwand's goal occurred seconds after a delayed penalty had been called on Vancouver defenseman Alex Edler for a hook behind the net on Legwand.

Nashville, 0-for-3 on the power play in Game 3, is now 0-for-12 with the man advantage in the series. The Canucks were 2-for-4 with the extra attacker in Game 3, and are now 2-for-10 in the series.

Joel Ward forced the overtime by scoring for Nashville at the 13:18 mark of the third period. It was Ward’s team-leading fourth postseason goal. Ward was ninth on the team in points (29) and eighth in goals (10) during the regular campaign. But he has emerged in the postseason as some of his more offensive-minded teammates have received more attention

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/04/11 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2170 Detail
05/03/11 2-*1-*1 66.67% +*545 Detail
05/02/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*45 Detail
05/01/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1510 Detail
Totals 9-*6-*1 60.00% +1250

Thursday, May 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Vancouver - 8:30 PM ET Nashville +113 500
Nashville - Over 5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

May 4, 2011




SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Mariners are 0-9 since June 27, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $915 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Braves are 0-14-1 OU since May 17, 2010 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Red Sox are 12-0 since June 08, 2007 when Josh Beckett starts as a 140+ favorite after the results of his last three starts were WWL for a net profit of $1200.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Twins are 9-0 (+3.7 rpg) since 2007 as a 140-plus underdog when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Indians are 0-7 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Marlins are 0-7 since July 28, 2010 as a road 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs in a loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Yankees are 0-7 since May 27, 2010 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700 when playing against.