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**weazel079** · 05-04-2011, 09:29 PM

Next set of criteria is to throw out any horse who didn't win a race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby. We can elminate Midnight Interlude, Nehro. Nehro is also the only horse in thef field with a Dosage Index above 4. The DI is used to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. It's a stamina check. It's not perfect, but only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby (in the last 70 years) since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999], Giacomo [2005] and Mine That Bird [2009]) have had a Dosage Index above 4.00. Even though the aforementioned 5 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (20 years to be exact), the percentage of 5 out of 70 (1940-2010) is just 7% overall.

Cut the field down to 13 with confidence.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

**weazel079** · 05-04-2011, 10:20 PM

The next set of criteria specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have been first or second with a furlong to go; otherwise, the horse gets a strike. This very important because 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole. Thats knocks out Archanarch, Brilliant Speed, and Dialed In.

The field is cut into half at 10, and I will wager dollars to doughnuts that the horse wearing the roses will come from this group. There are some juicy prices left on the board.

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

**weazel079** · 05-05-2011, 02:02 AM

From here points will be added to the list of 10 contenders.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old. Give points to Animal Kingdom, Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Uncle Mo.

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if the horse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man, Uncle Mo are the only two which did not meet the criteria.

Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested. All qualify except for Uncle Mo.

Next the horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passed coming down the stretch. Strikes against Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Uncle Mo, Shackelford, Twinspired

Horses with less than 6 lifetime starts have not faired well in the derby but there has been a few winners of late. This indicates a lack of racing experience. Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 are the only ones to break this rule. Uncle Mo, Animal Kingdom, and Shackelford all lack racing experience.

Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race. This shows a horse has the class to win. Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Twinspired, and Shackelford have failed to win a graded stakes race.

Points in asteriks:

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1 *3*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1 *3*
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1 *3*

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1 *2*

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1 *2*

Eliminate: Decisive Moment, Twinspired, Master of Hounds, Shackelford, and Uncle Mo.

Remaining field (main contenders):

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

**bryce** · 05-05-2011, 02:42 AM

Thanks Weazel. Where the hell ya been.
Hopefully you will stick around and help the board out.
Hope you are doing well.

**weazel079** · 05-05-2011, 03:19 AM

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

Finally its time to take account beyer numbers. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.

Twice Appeal - 88
Comma To The Top - 97
Pants on Fire - 97
Mucho Macho Man - 98
Animal Kingdom - 96

Don't pick a horse with a new jockey. You really need to know your horse in a race like this so it isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time. Calvin Borel jumps on Twice Appeal for the 1st time and has poor beyer numbers. PVal on Comma To the Top. Trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kath Ritvo is making her first derby appearance which.

That leaves Pants on Fire and Animal Kingdom as the 2 horses to use in this years derby with Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom, and I personally think Soldat is worth a look underneath.

**tech fan** · 05-05-2011, 09:09 AM

Good luck buddy thanks for the info

**aces r wild** · 05-05-2011, 12:43 PM

Good Luck, Thanks for the info!

**BillMill71** · 05-05-2011, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by weazel079 View Post

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

Finally its time to take account beyer numbers. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.

Twice Appeal - 88
Comma To The Top - 97
Pants on Fire - 97
Mucho Macho Man - 98
Animal Kingdom - 96

Don't pick a horse with a new jockey. You really need to know your horse in a race like this so it isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time. Calvin Borel jumps on Twice Appeal for the 1st time and has poor beyer numbers. PVal on Comma To the Top. Trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kath Ritvo is making her first derby appearance which.

That leaves Pants on Fire and Animal Kingdom as the 2 horses to use in this years derby with Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom, and I personally think Soldat is worth a look underneath.

Have they announced if Albarado will be riding after his fall and facial injuries? If not then according to you conditions on new Jockey Animal Kingdom out. And With Pants on Fire has there been a female Jockey who has won?

Not sure. So this Derby may be one of "Firsts"

**FB Coach13** · 05-06-2011, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by BillMill71 View Post

Have they announced if Albarado will be riding after his fall and facial injuries? If not then according to you conditions on new Jockey Animal Kingdom out. And With Pants on Fire has there been a female Jockey who has won?

Not sure. So this Derby may be one of "Firsts"

Albarado will race on Friday and Saturday, just heard it watching TVG

**bryce** · 05-06-2011, 11:19 AM

05/06/2011 8:35AM
Kentucky Derby: Uncle Mo scratched
By Jay Privman
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Justin N. Lane
A downcast trainer Todd Pletcher (left) and owner Mike Repole announce Friday morning that Uncle Mo has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Uncle Mo, as expected, has been scratched from Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs's stewards announced Friday morning at 8:30 a.m.

A press conference with owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher, outlining the reasons, is scheduled for later this morning.
*

**insidethe8thpol** · 05-06-2011, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by bryce View Post

05/06/2011 8:35AM
Kentucky Derby: Uncle Mo scratched
By Jay Privman
ShareThis
EmailPrint

Justin N. Lane
A downcast trainer Todd Pletcher (left) and owner Mike Repole announce Friday morning that Uncle Mo has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Uncle Mo, as expected, has been scratched from Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs's stewards announced Friday morning at 8:30 a.m.

A press conference with owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher, outlining the reasons, is scheduled for later this morning.
*

I think I read somewhere a few days back that Uncle Mo has been sick and they were looking at him to see if he came around before making a decision to scratch him.

**bryce** · 05-06-2011, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by insidethe8thpol View Post

I think I read somewhere a few days back that Uncle Mo has been sick and they were looking at him to see if he came around before making a decision to scratch him.

I believe he had some type of infection.

**garth** · 05-07-2011, 11:33 PM

Thanks, weazel, for sharing your derby capping. I put $20 to win on a couple of your picks, including Animal Kingdom. Nice little $438 payout.

**elevenblack301** · 05-08-2011, 01:39 PM

weazel,

Just wanted to send a big thanks for this tremendous writeup and analysis of the derby.

Someone posted your comments in one of my threads on another sports forum, and I just wanted to give you a big 'shout out'

very nice analysis,

I was lucky enough to put some numbers together ( had nehro and animal kingdom as two of my keys ) and hit the Superfecta again, the first one I hit was last year.

Looking forward to your Preakness and Belmont thoughts....

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