The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Ice Action

May 3, 2011


Being at home in the playoffs in any sport is supposed to be an advantage. One look at the Stanley Cup Playoffs and you’ll quickly see that the venue is simply overrated. Through Monday’s postseason action, we’ve seen the road teams go 5-3 and 32-26 overall. We’re going to see if that trend holds true on Wednesday night with some of the best road teams in the NHL on display.

Flyers at Bruins – 7:05 p.m. EDT, Versus

We’re two games into this rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, and it isn’t going exactly as planned for the Flyers.

Philadelphia figured that they could capitalize on the home ice advantage, but that wasn’t the case with them losing Games 1 and 2. The Flyers looked like they’d pull even in the series on Monday night with a quick 2-0 lead, but coughed that back up in the span of 85 seconds.

The Flyers come into this contest with a lot more questions that could put them back in an 0-3 hole. Defenseman Chris Pronger sat out on Monday night with that pesky hand injury that kept him out a majority of the time for the first round, and is “questionable” for Game 3 of the series. The same goes for netminder Brian Boucher, who hurt his wrist during the game on Monday, but came back. Boucher is listed as “questionable” for the match, which means you’ve got to think Michael Leighton or Sergei Bobrovsky will get time on the ice.

Boston keeps on plugging away in the postseason with a new hero every night. The B’s blew the doors off of the Wells Fargo Center to start the series. And they showed the mettle to fight back for the win in Game 2. While that’s surprising to me, it’s more of a shock that they’re doing it with a piss poor power play that is now 0-for-28. That just goes to show you how much Tim Thomas means to this team’s title dreams. Thomas was nearly unflappable on Monday evening with 52 saves on 54 shots on goal by Philly.

The early odds have the Bruins as $1.45 home favorites (risk $145 to win $100) with a total of 5 ½ for Game 3. While the unwashed public bettor will fall over themselves to bet the B’s, they should think before hitting the window. Philadelphia has been a road pup on three different occasions after a two-game slide, winning each of those games. The ‘over’ was 3-0 in those spots as well.

Capitals at Lightning – 7:05 p.m. EDT

The Capitals figured they would have an easy go of it in the second round after how they fared against Tampa Bay during the regular season. Someone forgot to tell the Lightning about that as they claimed wins in the first two games of the series.

This matchup is getting played on no rest (because Versus wants it that way and college graduations), which might play right into the Capitals’ hands. Tampa Bay is 2-0 straight up and on the puck line when playing at home on no rest this season. However, they’ve not been in this spot since late November. The Caps, on the other hand, are 5-7 SU and 4-8 PL on back-to-back games. But Washington is 4-1 SU and 3-2 PL in the last five in this spot.

Sharks at Detroit – 8:05 p.m. EDT, Versus

The Red Wings lost to the Sharks in the playoffs last year because they were tired after a seven-game set against Phoenix. This year, Detroit swept the Coyotes, giving them just over a week off. Now that San Jose is sitting up 2-0 in the series, perhaps we can say that they’re just better than guys from Hockeytown.

Detroit’s failure in this series has been due to the lack of shots on goal. The Wings have taken just 59 SOG in the first two games, which is well below the 83 that the Sharks have lobbed at Jimmy Howard. To Howard’s credit, he’s only allowed four goals in the first two matches. He just needs the Red Wings to man up on the attack. Johan Franzen has just four shots on goal so far with nothing to show for it. At least Henrik Zetterberg showed up with his first goal of the postseason in Game 2 of the series.

San Jose has no complaints on either side of the ice. That’s a far cry from the defensive issues that put Antti Niemi in bad spots against the Kings in the first round. The Shark do have some reason to be happy about this trip to Joe Louis Arena. They won both games they had there this season, which is the first time in franchise history.

Season series doesn’t matter to the oddsmakers as the Wings are listed as $1.70 home favorites with a total of 5 ½. Home ice has been kind to Detroit this year when coming off of a two-game losing streak, going 3-2 SU. Bettors would be wise to take the Sharks on the puck line since the Red Wings are 0-5 PL in those games.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: Red Wings down 2-0 to Sharks

Fewer than 20 percent of teams down 2-0 in the Stanley Cup playoffs go on to win the series. In fact, the Detroit Red Wings have lost six of the last seven series when they trailed 2-0.

But that is a reality the Wings must face after suffering consecutive 2-1 losses to the San Jose Sharks during the first two contests of this best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series. Both games dipped ‘under’ the 5 ½-goal closing total.

The two goals in two games is Detroit’s worst offensive performance in a playoff series in 11 years. Unless the Wings rediscover their offensive prowess they will be headed to the golf courses far quicker than they had hoped.

San Jose has now won 10 of the last 12 games between the teams, including six of the last seven playoff matchups.

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports Real-Time Odds have installed the Wings as 165 home favorites for Wednesday’s Game 3, which will begin at 5:05 p.m. (PT). The total opened at 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus 135).

Being an underdog has not bothered the Sharks at all, evidenced by their 11-3 ledger during the last 14 contests in that role. Additionally, the Sharks are 10-1-1 in their last 12 road dates and 26-14-2-2 on enemy ice overall this season.

Though the Sharks are just 8-20-1 in their last 29 visits to Joe Louis Arena, they captured both regular season meetings in Detroit this season and won two games at the Joe during last year’s playoffs.

Detroit actually owns a better record on the road (28-12-3-2) than it does at home (23-14-4-2). The ‘over’ is 9-3 in Detroit’s last 12 encounters and 47-41 overall this season.

Not many observers expected this series to be very chippy. After all, the Red Wings are notorious for refusing to get into scrums following whistles.

However, the Wings found themselves in a quite few during Game 2. Much of it stemmed from players being upset about the snow showers received by goaltender Jimmy Howard when the Sharks charged the net.

Howard was again stellar in net during Sunday’s Game 2 loss, stopping 35 shots after stonewalling 44 in Game 1. Howard yielded a power-play goal to Sharks defenseman Ian White and a third-period snapper by defenseman Niclas Wallin that appeared to glance off a stick. Otherwise, Howard was superb, keeping the Wings close.

Antti Niemi, who won the Stanley Cup last season while playing between the pipes for the Chicago Blackhawks, stopped 33-of-34 shots to register the victory.

Henrik Zetterberg notched the lone Detroit goal with 6:02 remaining in regulation when he received a nifty pass from Pavel Datsyuk and snapped a wrist shot past Niemi. It was Detroit’s first goal in about 115 minutes of the series, nearly two full games.

It was also Detroit’s lone power play goal in six chances. San Jose was 1-for-5 on the power play in Game 2 and 1-for-6 with the man advantage in Game 1.

One of the more puzzling issues for the Red Wings are the penalties they have been taking against the Sharks. The Red Wings were 26th in the league, averaging 9.2 penalty minutes per game during the regular season. However, in the playoffs, Mike Babcock’s troops are eighth out of 16 teams by averaging 12.8 penalty minutes.

A hot topic heading into Wednesday’s Game 3 was whether Babcock will tweak the lineup. Mike Modano and Kris Draper were healthy scratches in the first two games.

Modano could replace Jiri Hudler, who played 8 minutes 33 seconds in Game 2 and didn't have a shot on goal (14:30 in Game 1, three shots). And, Draper's ability to get after the puck and his experience could push someone such as Drew Miller out of the lineup.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Betting: Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins

The Philadelphia Flyers and the Boston Bruins have a heck of a lot of history between them. The Bruins are making their 66th appearance in the Stanley Cup playoffs and have five titles to their credit, while the Flyers are here for the 43rd time in the postseason and have a pair of Stanley Cups on their mantle.

Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette is already all over his team in the media, stating, "We are going to win a game (in Boston)," immediately after his team suffered a second straight home loss at Wells Fargo Arena courtesy of the Game 2 overtime winner by Peter Krejci of the Bruins.

History definitely isn't on the side of the Flyers right now either. They are only 27-50-11 all-time playing on the road in Beantown, and they have been outscored by almost 70 goals in those games.

They've got some major injury issues to tend to as well. Backup goalie Michael Leighton, who was the man that came off of the bench last year in this postseason series, has a lower body injury and is unlikely to be able to go on Wednesday night. This wouldn't normally be that much of a problem, save for the fact that Brian Boucher had to leave the game on Monday with a hand injury.

He did come back and is expected to play in Game 3, but any tweak to a goaltender is never a good thing.

On top of that, Andreas Nodl, who hasn't played since Game 2 against the Buffalo Sabres, isn't certain for Game 3, nor are Jeff Carter and Chris Pronger, both of whom missed the second game of this series.

However, if Philly can sleep easily about one thing, it is definitely knowing how to win games when its back is against the wall. The Flyers could've just laid down and been trampled by Buffalo after getting shut out twice in the first four games of that series, but they clawed back and were able to take the set in seven games.

Last year, same deal. Philly was behind 3-0 in the series and changed goalies to Leighton from Boucher and went on a tear, winning four straight to win the series with Boston. The Flyers went on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Boston has gotten great play out of the aforementioned Krejci in this series. The leading scorer for the Bruins this year only had one goal and didn't have an assist in seven games against the Montreal Canadiens, but he has scored three times and has two helpers already in this series against the Flyers.

There still seems to be something just a tad bit wrong with Tim Thomas right now. Sure, there is no shame in having a 2.25 GAA this time of year, but goaltenders usually improve their numbers from the regular season in the playoffs. Thomas still needs to improve, as five goals allowed in the first three and a half periods of hockey in this series clearly wasn't good enough.

However, he stopped the final 46 shots that he faced on Monday night and was a pillar in the posts to help lead the boys from Beantown to victory.

The Bruins, now comfortable favorites for the second year in a row on the Stanley Cup betting lines to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, are minus 140 chalk for Game 3 (4:00 p.m. PT). The 'over/under' is set at 5 ½, with the 'over' priced at plus 120.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Those poor folks who depend on the mainstream media to direct them to the marquee game or evening's best pitching matchup are going to miss a dandy on Wednesday night.

Unless the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners meet in the ALCS, games between the two AL West rivals will never get much national attention. But make no mistake about the excellent mound battle on Wednesday when the two clubs continue a 3-game set at Safeco Field.

The 7:10 p.m. (PT) first pitch in Game 2 has the Mariners sending rookie right-hander Michael Pineda to the bump in Seattle against Rangers lefty CJ Wilson.

Seattle and Texas opened the set on Tuesday with a reverse pairing on the hill, the M's starting southpaw Eric Bedard against Rangers rookie right-hander Alexi Ogando. Texas opened as 140 chalk in that clash with seven runs for the Game 1 total.

The clubs started the series on opposite ends of the AL West standings, but separated by just three games. Seattle was at the bottom of the division barrel, 13-16 on the season and off a little more than a unit against the MLB money line. Texas was tied with the Angels at the top, the Rangers' 16-13 mark enough to have them one unit in the black.

Wilson (4-2, 3.35) has done nothing but win since moving into the Texas rotation at the beginning of the 2010 season. This will be his 40th regular season start in that span with the Rangers 28-11 in the previous 39.

Five of his 33 assignments a year ago came against the Mariners with Texas winning three, going 2-1 at Safeco Field where Wilson's ERA was 3.50 in those outings.

Justin Smoak, the former Rangers first-base prospect, has the only homer against Wilson in Seattle's lineup with the Texas southpaw doing a pretty good job keeping both Ichiro Suzuki (8-for-32, .250) and Chone Figgins (8-for-30, .267) at bay through their careers.

If AL Rookie of the Year balloting was held today, Pineda (4-1, 2.01) would be the runaway winner. The big Dominican has had a few issues with control on occasion, causing him to work deep counts too often. But he's been pretty dominant otherwise, limiting opposing hitters to a sub-.200 batting average, striking out 30 in 31 1/3 innings and yet to serve up a long ball.

Pineda has reeled off four consecutive victories since his major league debut in Texas on April 5. The Rangers topped him by a 3-2 count, a pair of doubles in the sixth by Josh Hamilton and Michael Young doing the biggest damage.

Hamilton won't be in the lineup this time with a shoulder injury likely to keep the 2010 AL MVP out of action most if not all of May. Texas is also without the services of closer Neftali Feliz, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner, who is on the DL with shoulder inflammation. Feliz should rejoin the team at some point this weekend.

Texas swept the Mariners back in April, but that was with both Hamilton and Feliz healthy. The batting lineup has suffered a bit without Hamilton in the mix, as you'd expect, but the loss of Feliz has been even more damaging to Texas who comes into the series having dropped six of its last eight.

The Rangers won 12 of the 19 meetings against the Mariners last season, going 6-3 in Seattle. The 'under' also cashed six of the nine games at Safeco Field.

The series concludes Thursday with another righty-lefty clash, Texas sending Colby Lewis to the mound where he will be opposed by Seattle's Jason Vargas. The Rangers head back home after the game to begin a 9-game homestand starting with three against the Yankees. Seattle will remain at home for a weekend set with the White Sox.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's

The Cleveland Indians began a six-game West Coast road trip on Tuesday with the best record in the American League. Whether or not the Indians will finish their trip with the AL’s top mark remains to be seen though, as they have struggled over the past couple seasons against the Oakland Athletics.

The Tribe had dropped 11 of the previous 14 meetings with the A’s heading into Tuesday’s series opener and will face a very hot starting pitcher on Wednesday in Oakland’s Trevor Cahill. The big righty from Oceanside has limited the opposition to just one run in five of his six starts this year, going 4-0 with a sparkling 1.88 ERA.

Cahill’s only rough outing came at Chicago on April 12 when he surrendered four runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings of an eventual 6-5 loss. He threw 97 pitches in that game, which is his shortest appearance of the young season. Cahill has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his other five starts, failing to yield a home run in four of them.

He is 1-1 in two lifetime starts against Cleveland with a 4.22 ERA.

The Indians will counter with second-year starter Josh Tomlin, who has enjoyed similar success to Cahill with an identical 4-0 record and a 2.45 ERA. Tomlin earned a victory last time out against Kansas City a week ago despite giving up two homers. Fortunately for him and his team, they were both solo shots and ended up being the only two runs scored by the Royals in a 7-2 win.

Tomlin was not so lucky in his previous start, as he walked away with a no-decision at Kansas City on April 21 even though he allowed just one run and five hits in 7 1/3 innings. He has topped the 100-pitch mark just once this season and threw exactly 100 in his last start against the Royals.

Cleveland has been merely mortal away from home this year, going 6-6 compared to 13-2 at Progressive Field. The Indians are hitting just .217 against righties on the road compared to .310 against lefties, which is a bit of a concern considering they must face right-handed starters in the first two games of this three-game series that ends Thursday against southpaw Brett Anderson.

Oakland took three of four games against Texas following a seven-game road trip, closing out the series with a 5-4 win over the Rangers in 10 innings on Monday. Designated hitter Hideki Matsui led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a solo homer to win the game after outfielder Josh Willingham and catcher Kurt Suzuki had gone deep earlier.

The 'over' cashed in the last three games of that series for the A’s and was 5-1 in the previous six games for Cleveland prior to Tuesday’s contest.

Those trends are heading in a different direction than the past meetings that have seen the 'under' go 5-0-1 in the previous six games between the teams before Tuesday.

Wednesday's second game is scheduled to begin at 7:05 p.m. (PT) under clear skies with a game-time temp in the low-to-mid 70s.

The two clubs wrap up the series with a Wednesday matinee (12:35 p.m. PT).

[StarDust Bum]

Boston Red Sox, Angels in MLB odds battle

Kenny White thinks the chalk is a little thick on Josh Beckett and the Red Sox Wednesday in this matchup with the Angels' Ervin Santana.The Boston Red Sox have found an apparent solution for their early season struggles – keep playing the Los Angeles Angels. The teams play the third game of a four-game set on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

Opening pitch from Fenway Park will be 4:10 p.m. (PT). Boston’s Josh Beckett (2-1, 2.65 ERA) looks to continue his strong start against Ervin Santana (1-3, 4.89 ERA).

Boston (13-15) was the heavy preseason favorite to win the AL, but has vastly underachieved to date. Bookmaker.com has moved the Yankees (plus 225) ahead of the Red Sox (plus 300) in pennant odds, with Texas close behind (plus 315).

Manager Terry Francona has made several adjustments from dropping the struggling Carl Crawford in the order to making Jed Lowrie the everyday shortstop over Marco Scutaro. Those moves have nudged Boston towards the .500 mark after a panic-stricken 2-10 start.

Francona and the Red Sox’ best elixir is playing the Angels. They’re 5-0 against them including a 9-5 win on Monday night. Jered Weaver (6-1) took his first loss of the season and Boston continued its dominance after taking four at the Angels ending April 24 (outscoring them 20-5).

Tuesday’s result is still pending, but featured a great starting battle of Jon Lester against Dan Haren.

Beckett has been the co-ace with Lester this year despite opening as the No. 4 starter. He had a dismal 2010 campaign (6-6, 5.78 ERA), with injuries a big factor.

Beckett is coming off his worst start of the year last Wednesday at Baltimore, giving up four earned runs over six innings in a 5-4 loss. He surrendered two home runs after just one in his first four games. The long ball was a huge problem for Beckett last year with 20 allowed over just 127 2/3 innings.

Beckett has already faced the Angels once this year, allowing two earned runs and just three hits over eight innings. He got the no-decision in the 4-2 extra-innings win.

The almost 31-year-old right-hander from Texas has averaged over 105 pitches in his five starts. Francona decided to push him back a couple of days and he’ll be on six days rest. Boston is 5-1 in his last six starts with six days rest.

Beckett is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.60 ERA in two home starts. He lasted eight innings in a 4-0 win over the Yankees on April 10 and seven innings in a 4-1 triumph over Toronto on April 16.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Beckett’s starts this year (2-0 at home) and 6-1 in his last seven home starts overall.

Los Angeles (16-13) is tied for the AL West lead along with Texas despite all the losses to Boston. Team ERA is second in the AL (3.14) and the bats have picked it up the last seven games (4.86 runs per game) despite Kendry Morales (ankle) out the whole season so far.

Santana has alternated between good and bad years the last five seasons. He went 17-10 with a 3.92 ERA last year, an ominous sign for 2011 which already hasn’t started great.

The 28-year-old righty has allowed at least three runs in all six of his starts. He surrendered four over six innings last Friday at Tampa Bay, but in fairness only one was earned. The Angels won 8-5 and have a 2-4 record in his starts.

Santana hosted Boston on April 23, allowing five earned runs over seven innings in a 5-0 defeat. He’s 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA lifetime at Fenway, but was 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts last year, beating Beckett last August (7-2).

The Angels are 1-7 overall in their last eight games at Fenway.

Umpire Wally Bell will call balls and strikes. The Red Sox are an incredible 23-4 the last 27 times he’s been behind home plate. Los Angeles is 1-4 in the last five.

Weather will be in the upper 50s with showers likely. The series concludes Thursday with Boston’s John Lackey looking to beat his former team for the second time this season. Joel Pineiro will start for Los Angeles

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 12:35 PM ET Houston +185 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Minnesota - 2:10 PM ET Minnesota +159 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 3:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +109 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 6:35 PM ET Pittsburgh +131 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Toronto - 6:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -119 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Washington +142 500
Philadelphia - Over 9 500

LA Angels - 7:10 PM ET Boston -180 500
Boston - Over 8.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee +126 500
Atlanta - Under 7 500

San Francisco - 7:10 PM ET San Francisco -138 500
NY Mets - Over 6.5 500

Baltimore - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +103 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

Florida - 8:15 PM ET Florida +169 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Arizona +121 500
Arizona - Over 9.5 500

Cleveland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -145 500
Oakland - Under 7 500

Texas - 10:10 PM ET Texas -101 500
Seattle - Over 6.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

May 4, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mariners are 0-9 since June 27, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $915 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Braves are 0-14-1 OU since May 17, 2010 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 12-0 since June 08, 2007 when Josh Beckett starts as a 140+ favorite after the results of his last three starts were WWL for a net profit of $1200.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Twins are 9-0 (+3.7 rpg) since 2007 as a 140-plus underdog when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Indians are 0-7 since April 25, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Marlins are 0-7 since July 28, 2010 as a road 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs in a loss for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Yankees are 0-7 since May 27, 2010 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Wings try to climb back into series vs. Sharks


SAN JOSE SHARKS

at DETROIT RED WINGS


NHL Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – San Jose leads series 2-0
Puck drops: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -170, San Jose +150, Total: 5.5

When you have recorded 11 consecutive 100-point seasons and won two Stanley Cups over that period, you don’t panic when you face deficits in a series. Detroit will need all of the composure it can muster to get back in this series against a very determined San Jose team, as the series shifts to Detroit for Game 3.

You don’t win a Stanley Cup by fluke, and Antti Niemi proved last season with the Blackhawks that he was capable of taking his team to the top. Niemi struggled a bit in the Sharks first round win over the Kings, but certainly has recovered against the Wings. In the first two games of this series, he has a save percentage of .966 and allowed just two goals. Keep in mind the Red Wings finished second in the NHL in goals during the regular season and averaged 4.5 goals per game during their sweep of the Coyotes. Douglass Murray has no points in this series, but has done an excellent job at keeping the Wings forwards away from the net and clearing space for Niemi.

Detroit has played well in this series, but it just hasn’t been able to find a way to put the puck past Niemi. Nicklas Lidstrom is one of many Red Wings players who are frustrated with their inability to get closer to the net and put pressure on Niemi. Look for Detroit to move their defensemen in a bit more and really try to flood the net in Game 3.

I said earlier that even if the Wings fell behind two games, they still can win this series. Well, now is their chance to prove me right. Few teams can match their experience and guile, and you know the city of Detroit will send their minions to support the local team. I still like Detroit to win this series and it starts with winning on Wednesday. The FoxSheets show another trend favoring the Red Wings.

DETROIT is 95-39 ATS (70.9%, +18.5 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp since 1996. The average score was DETROIT 3.2, OPPONENT 2.1.

[StarDust Bum]

Bruins try to go up 3-0 in series vs. Flyers


PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

at BOSTON BRUINS


NHL Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 3 – Boston leads series 2-0
Puck drops: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -145, Philadelphia +125, Total: 5.5

The Boston Bruins have found a way to dominate almost every aspect of play in its second round playoff series against the Flyers, and that which the Bruins have not controlled, goalie Tim Thomas has stopped. Boston has been the more clutch team, as evidenced by its 3-2 overtime victory in Game 2, the more offensive team, as evidenced by its 7-3 blitzing of the Flyers in Game 1, and the more prepared team, as evidenced by how well the Bruins have played to take a two-games-to-none lead while playing on the road. Coming home for Game 3 with the biggest series advantage possible should be cause for celebration. But when the playoff opponent is the Flyers, the Bruins are the last team in the Western hemisphere who should feel comfortable about having a 2-0 series lead, considering that last season, they blew a 3-0 series lead, and a 3-0 lead in Game 7 to lose the series. If they finish off the Flyers, Boston won’t feel like this series is in the bag until the teams start lining up for handshakes at center ice.

Peter Laviolette is running out of answers to put between the pipes for his team, as the Flyers goaltending situation has been as shaky as the Bruins Tim Thomas has been steady and unflappable. Game 1 and 2 starter Brian Boucher gave up five goals in the series opener before getting pulled. His Game 2 effort was stronger, much stronger, despite leaving for several minutes in the second period to nurse a hand injury. Despite Boucher’s efforts, Thomas was the star of the game, stopping 46 consecutive shots, and a career-high 52 saves. "He kept us in it," defenseman Tomas Kaberle said. "If it hadn't been for him, I don't know what would be the end."

The Flyers, on the other hand, have used three goalies this postseason. Brian Boucher (4-3, 2.79 GAA), Sergie Bobrovsky (0-1, 3.50 GAA) and Michael Leighton (0-1, 3.44 GAA). According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Boucher suffered a dislocated finger in Game 2, but he expects to play in Game 3. Collectively, the Flyers goalies do not have a regular season or postseason shutout this year. For their sake, Wednesday would be a good time for the first one. On the injury front, the Flyers played Game 2 without leading goal scorer Jeff Carter, who is nursing a sore knee and listed as day-to-day. Also day-to-day is defenseman Chris Pronger, who still on the mend from a hand injury that kept him out of 32 regular-season games and the first five games of the playoffs. Pronger now has a sore hamstring. A bright spot has been the play of forward James Van Riemsdyk, who scored the team’s two goals on Monday night. Van Riemsdyk, along with teammate Danny Briere, share the league lead in postseason goals with seven each.

Between the injuries, the shaky goaltending, the 0-2 deficit with Games 3 and 4 on the road, you would think that the pressure to come up with a must-win is squarely on the Flyers? Not according to Laviolette. “When you lose your first two games in your home building, I would say that there is a real expectation for the Bruins to win the series now,” …So it relieves us of the pressure, I believe, a little bit to just go in and play a game in Boston. And while that relieves us of the pressure, it certainly mounts onto them to be successful now that they have a 2-0 lead.”

As long as Thomas continues his level of play in net, the pressure will likely remain on the Flyers, especially following his brilliance down the stretch in Game 2, when the Flyers out-shot the Bruins 32-12 in the third period and overtime. Boston is 4-0 in overtime games this postseason, but despite its poise in the extra session, it is suffering a power shortage in the power play. The Bruins are scoreless in their past 28 chances with the man advantage. Head coach Claude Julien is less concerned about the numbers, and more focused on the effort: “I think (Monday) we certainly moved the puck a lot better, we spent more time in our own end, and we had some chances, and we didn’t bury them… although we didn’t score, I thought our power play was better. And if we can keep getting better hopefully we’ll get the results here soon.”

The Flyers clearly still have fight left in them, but the mounting injuries and the disparity in goal appears to be too substantial for Philadelphia to overcome. The pick here is for Boston to maintain control of the series with a victory in Game 3. This FoxSheets trend also backs the Bruins.

BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.1 Units) against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Boston tries to beat Angels for 16th time in 17 games


LOS ANGELES ANGELS (16-14)

at BOSTON RED SOX (14-15)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -180, Los Angeles +170, Total: 8.5

Boston has a chance to move to .500 for the first time this season. They’ll have to continue their domination of the Angels on Wednesday night if they’re going to do it.

The Red Sox have won three straight overall, but the more impressive streak has been their annihilation of the Angels. They’ve beaten L.A. all six times the teams have met this season, beating their two aces the past two nights (Jered Weaver on Monday, Dan Haren on Tuesday). They’ve now beaten the Halos in 15 of their past 16 meetings.

On Wednesday, Josh Beckett will try to put up his second impressive start against the Angels in the past two weeks. In Anaheim on April 21, he held L.A. to two runs and three hits over eight innings. Though he got a no-decision in that game, Boston won in 11 innings. Beckett hasn’t thrown well against the Angels at Fenway though. The Sox have lost each of his past four home starts against the Angels, dating back to 2008. He allowed 21 runs (20 earned) over 24.2 innings in those games, including six runs allowed in 6.1 innings in a start last August.

The Angels will have erratic right-hander Ervin Santana on the mound. Santana is coming off one of his best starts of the year. On Friday, he got his first win of 2011, holding the Rays to one earned run (though they scored three more unearned) over six innings, striking out five while giving up four hits and walking two. He held his own against the Red Sox in L.A. on April 23, allowing five runs in seven innings but also striking out nine while walking only one in that game. He’s strung together four solid starts in Boston, holding the Sox to seven runs over 27.1 innings, a 2.30 ERA. The Angels won three of those four games.

Santana has traditionally been better on the road. Since 2008, he’s 26-12 with a 3.65 ERA in starts on the road, with L.A. winning 28 of his 48 starts. He’s 16-16 with a 4.62 ERA at home during that span.

Despite the heavily skewed money line, I just don’t see how the Angels are going to get past the Red Sox at this point. They just seem to have no confidence against this team. My pick is Boston.

The FoxSheets have some info favoring the Sox as well, including this three-star trend:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (BOSTON) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. (224-79 since 1997, 73.9%, +89.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Mets continue Cy Young opponents tour Wednesday


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (14-15)

at NEW YORK METS (12-17)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -145, New York +135, Total: 6.5

The Mets will face their third Cy Young Award winner in four days when Tim Lincecum takes the hill for the Giants Wednesday night in Queens.

New York split with Philadelphia’s two Cy Young Award winners, losing 2-1 to Roy Halladay on Saturday and winning Cliff Lee’s Sunday start in extra innings.

Lincecum is coming off back-to-back disappointing starts. Against the Braves two weeks ago, he walked six in 6.1 innings, giving up five runs in a loss. In Washington last Friday, Lincecum was better, walking none, but not good enough. He allowed three runs in seven innings and took a second straight loss.

He’s been shaky over three career starts in Queens (4.62 ERA). But Lincecum has been dominant in his last two starts against New York. Last May, he struck out eight in six innings at Citi Field, holding the Mets to two runs in a Giants win. Last July in San Francisco, he threw a six-hit shutout. For his career, Lincecum’s road ERA (2.90) is better than his home ERA (3.11).

The Mets will go with lefty Chris Capuano, one of their reclamation projects. He’s been shaky all season, posting a 6.04 ERA over four starts and two relief appearances. He was excellent in his last home start though, holding Houston to one run over seven innings in a win on April 21. He hasn’t made a start against the Giants since 2006, and allowed one run in 1.2 relief innings against them as part of Milwaukee’s bullpen last season.

The Giants have struggled to hit lefties just as badly as they’ve struggled to hit right-handers this year. As a team, they’re hitting .233 with a .291 on-base percentage against left-handers in 2011.

Still, the odds aren’t nearly far enough in the Giants’ favor considering the pitching mismatch. My pick is San Francisco.

The FoxSheets have more reasons to bet on Lincecum against the Mets, including:

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (N.Y. METS) – below-average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (45-10 over the last 5 seasons, 81.8%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/03/11 2-*1-*1 66.67% +*545 Detail
05/02/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% +*45 Detail
05/01/11 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1510 Detail
Totals 4-*5-*1 44.44% -*920

Wednesday, May 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington -104 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Boston -136 500
Boston - Over 5.5 500

San Jose - 8:00 PM ET San Jose +138 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 4, 2011


Home teams are 4-6
Favorites are 4-6
Favorites that won are 0-4 on the puck line
The 'under' is 6-3-1
First Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Thursday Apr. 28, 2011
Predators Canucks 1-0 FAVORITE (-200) UNDER 5

Friday Apr. 29, 2011
Lightning Capitals 4-2 UNDERDOG (+160) OVER 5.5
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5

Saturday Apr. 30, 2011
Bruins Flyers 7-3 UNDERDOG (+125) OVER 5.5
Predators Canucks 2-1 UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5

Sunday May 1, 2011
Red Wings Sharks 2-1 FAVORITE (-130) UNDER 5.5
Lightning Capitals 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5.5

Monday May 2, 2011
Bruins Flyers 3-2 (OT) UNDERDOG (+115) UNDER 5.5

Tuesday May 3, 2011
Capitals Lightning 4-3 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5
Canucks Predators 3-2 FAVORITE (-125) PUSH

Wednesday May 4, 2011
Capitals Lightning
Flyers Bruins
Sharks Red Wings

Thursday May 5, 2011
Canucks Predators

Friday May 6, 2011
Sharks Red Wings
Flyers Bruins

Saturday May 7, 2011
Lightning Capitals
Predators Canucks

Sunday May 8, 2011
Bruins Flyers
Red Wings Sharks

Monday May 9, 2011
Capitals Lightning
Canucks Predators

Tuesday May 10, 2011
Flyers Bruins
Sharks Red Wings

Wednesday May 11, 2011
Lightning Capitals
Predators Canucks

Thursday May 12, 2011
Bruins Flyers
Red Wings Sharks




Winners in BOLD

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!