The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers heavily favored over Cubs Monday


CHICAGO CUBS (12-15)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (14-15)


First Pitch: Monday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -205, Chicago +187, Total: 7.5

After losing two of three games against the last-place Padres at home, the Dodgers will try to rebound when they take on the Cubs at Dodger Stadium on Monday.

James Russell (1-3, 8.31 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cubs. Russell has not had any success starting this season, losing all three of his starts while allowing 12 ER, 19 H and 6 HR in his 9.2 IP. In his four outings coming out of the bullpen, Russell has fared much better, allowing two hits and zero runs in 3.1 IP. The Cubs have lost seven of their last 10 games and find themselves next to last in the NL Central due to the terrible pitching they have had so far. The Cubs enter Monday last in the NL in team ERA at 4.97, while their starters own the worst ERA in the majors at 6.12.

After allowing just 3 ER in going 2-1 over his first three starts, Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.52 ERA) has allowed 12 ER in going 0-2 over his last three starts. The Dodgers, who have averaged 2.6 runs en route to losing four of six, are likely looking forward to facing Chicago's struggling starters. Andre Ethier finds himself just four games shy of tying the Dodgers team record for longest hitting streak of 31 set by Willie Davis in 1969. Ethier has scored 15 runs and driven in 16 RBI during his 27-game hit streak.

The Cubs just can’t do anything right on the mound, judging by the fact that they are starting Russell after seeing the way he has struggled this season when starting. I like Kershaw and Los Angeles to take Game 1 of this series.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Dodgers:

CHICAGO CUBS are 30-51 (37.0%, -27.1 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Reds look to retain recent dominance over Astros


HOUSTON ASTROS (11-17)

at CINCINNATI REDS (14-14)


First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -175, Houston +165, Total: 8.5

After losing two of three to Florida at home, Cincinnati looks to get back on track when it hosts Houston on Monday night.

Mike Leake will look to stay undefeated for the Reds, who provided him with plenty of run support in April (10.57 per game, second-most in majors). Leake is 3-0 in his five starts despite a 4.40 ERA this season. In 30.2 innings, he's allowed 27 hits and 10 walks while striking out 26 batters. But he does have four quality starts in his five outings. In his most recent appearance against Milwaukee on April 26, the right-hander got a no-decision after pitching seven strong innings and surrendering seven hits and two earned runs with six strikeouts. Leake is 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts against Houston. He earned the win versus the Astros on April 5 when he allowed two earned runs and just three hits in six innings of an 8-2 Reds victory.

The Astros took two of three from Milwaukee over the weekend and will send struggling starter J.A. Happ to the mound on Monday. Happ has made five starts this season and is 1-4 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. In 28.1 innings, he's allowed 29 hits (including five home runs) with 14 walks and 20 strikeouts. He did pitch better in his most recent start on Wednesday against St. Louis, allowing two runs (both on solo homers) and five hits in five innings, but was tagged with his third straight loss, 6-5. The left-hander has allowed 13 earned runs in two road starts this season, which included a season-high seven earned runs, seven hits and five walks in just four innings of work against the Reds on April 5. He's winless versus Cincy in two career starts and has surrendered 13 hits and 10 runs in 11 innings for an 8.18 ERA.

Carlos Lee (.207, 3 HR, 18 RBI) is not expected to play on Monday night after colliding with a teammate in Houston's 5-0 victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. Lee, who hit a three-run homer in the sixth inning, hurt his ribcage when teammate Angel Sanchez slid knee-first into his ribs while both were chasing a pop-up. Lee went to the hospital for tests on Sunday and is out indefinitely.

The Reds are a whopping 24-10 (+14.5 Units) against the Astros in the past three seasons, including a 13-5 record at home. Cincy also has a majors-best stat line of .345 BA/.436 OBP/.576 SLG against left-handed pitching this year. The pick here is the heavily-favored Reds to win on Monday.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with Cincinnati.

Play On - Any team (CINCINNATI) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP >=1.550), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (79-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +42.5 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Tigers try to end 6-game losing skid hosting Yankees


NEW YORK YANKEES (16-9)

at DETROIT TIGERS (12-16)


First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -125, New York +115, Total: 8

New York looks to win its fifth game in the past six contests when it visits struggling Detroit on Monday night at Comerica Park.

Bartolo Colon (2-1, 2.77 ERA, 26 K's in 26 IP) will take the mound for the Yankees. In his first start since July 2009, Colon allowed two runs in 6.2 innings of a 6-2 victory at Toronto on April 20. And in his last outing versus Chicago on Wednesday, the right-hander surrendered one run, seven hits and one walk while striking out six in eight innings of a 3-1 home win. Colon has made 22 career starts versus the Tigers and is 8-9 with a 5.32 ERA. He hasn’t beaten Detroit since 2003, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .348 opponents’ batting average in his past eight outings (seven starts) when facing Detroit. Magglio Ordonez is 11-for-47 (.234) against the righty for his career with three home runs and 10 RBI, while Brandon Inge is batting .348 (8-for-23) against Colon.

The Tigers have lost six straight games and is coming off consecutive series sweeps at the hands of Seattle and Cleveland. Detroit has scored just 17 runs and is batting .207 with runners in scoring position during the slide. Team ace Justin Verlander (2-3, 3.64 ERA) gets the ball on Monday night. Verlander has racked up 43 strikeouts in 42 innings and has a 1.02 WHIP. However, he's dropped three of his past four contests, including a 10-1 decision to Seattle on Wednesday in which he allowed five hits and four runs (three earned) in six innings with eight strikeouts. On Opening Day at Yankee Stadium, Verlander didn't get a decision after allowing three runs, three hits and four walks in six innings of a 6-3 Detroit loss. He is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his past four outings against the Yankees at Comerica Park. Verlander has made nine career starts versus New York, going 4-3 with a 3.91 ERA. In 50.2 innings, he's allowed 50 hits with 46 strikeouts and 23 walks. He's also been lights out in May during his career, sporting a 18-8 record with a 2.75 ERA, which are his most wins and best ERA for any month.

The Yankees won two of three from Detroit to open the season, and they've won 11 of the past 16 meetings overall. But they were just 1-3 in Detroit in 2010. With Colon’s past struggles versus the Tigers coupled with Verlander’s stellar May career, the pick for Monday is Detroit.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Tigers to snap their losing skid.

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less. (92-52 since 1997.) (63.9%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bruins try to take 2-0 series lead Monday


BOSTON BRUINS

at PHILADELPHIA FLYERS


Eastern Conference Playoffs – Second Round
Game 2 – Boston leads series 1-0
Puck drops: Monday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -135, Boston +115, Total: 5.5

After defeating the Flyers in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series, the Bruins have now won three of their four road games this postseason. In doing so, they have taken one step closer to slaying the demons of their 2010 postseason collapse against these same Flyers.

David Krejci scored four goals and registered eight points in his nine postseason games in 2010 before being lost for the playoffs after suffering a dislocated wrist in Game 3 of their series against the Flyers. Boston lost four straight after that and found themselves on the wrong side of history. After struggling by recording just one goal against the Canadiens, Krejci exploded in Game 1, scoring two goals and dishing out two assists. Patrice Bergeron continued his strong postseason, recording three assists. He is tied for the second-most points in the 2011 postseason with 10.

Philadelphia led the Eastern Conference in goals during the regular season, and defeated one of the best goaltenders in the business in knocking out Ryan Miller in the first round. However, the Flyers bounced around three goaltenders against the Sabres, and were again victimized by their lack of goaltending in Game 1, watching first Brian Boucher then Sergie Bobrovsky allow seven goals on 33 shots. Claude Giroux recorded two assists in Game 1 to improve his point total to a league-leading 11 in the postseason, but unless the Flyers show confidence in someone in net, they will have major problems stopping Boston. Add to that, Philly is facing another excellent goaltender in Tim Thomas, and that makes the Flyers’ task even tougher.

Only the Flyers averaged more goals per game then the Bruins did in the Eastern Conference this season. However, Boston was stymied by Carey Price and Montreal averaging just 2.4 goals per game in its first round series win. You could see the relief on the Bruins faces as Game 1 moved on, knowing that they had gotten their scoring touch back. I like Boston to continue to show just how good it can be and take a 2-0 lead back home, where they just might finish the series in four straight.

The FoxSheets provide two highly-rated trends advising to pick against the Flyers.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 1.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*).

PHILADELPHIA is 2-13 ATS (-15.5 Units) against excellent starting goalies - (saving >= 93% of shots against) in the 2nd half of the season since 1996. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: St. Louis Cardinals, Florida Marlins

Kyle McClellan brings a 4-0 record and 3.23 ERA into Tuesday’s start.
Thanks largely to Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and David Freese the St. Louis Cardinals currently lead the majors in batting average at .295.

That hitting trio, though, is down to two after Freese suffered a broken hand this past Sunday after being hit by a pitch. He’ll be out at least a month.

That’s certainly terrible news for St. Louis, which hosts Florida on Tuesday at 5:15 p.m. (PT) in Game 2 of its four-game series that concludes Thursday.

Freese had put a halt to the Cardinals’ continued third base problems this season by batting .356 with two homers and 14 RBIs while amassing an .865 OPS mark, second among National League third basemen.

Despite a slow start by superstar first baseman Albert Pujols, an unsettled closer situation and a season-ending injury suffered by stud pitcher Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals lead the NL Central Division.

The Cardinals have achieved this by ranking in the top three in batting average and runs scored and placing seventh in ERA.

While ace Chris Carpenter still is seeking his first win, right-hander Kyle McClellan has stepped up to go 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA. The 26-year-old gets the start Tuesday night against right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA.

The Marlins are hot on the heels of Philadelphia in the NL East having won 17 of their first 26 games. The Marlins opened this series having won eight of their past 11 going 7-4 on the road this year.

Florida has overcome a wretched start from All-Star Hanley Ramirez by tightening a leaky defense and ranking in the top six in ERA and WHIP.

Ramirez came into the series batting .200 with one home run, 11 RBIs, three steals and a .294 on-base percentage. The 27-year-old shortstop has had at least 20 homers, 65 RBIs and 25 stolen bases in each of the last four seasons.

McClellan has shown signs of vulnerability. He has just a 10-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts. McClellan did win in his last start, beating Houston, 11-7, last Thursday as a 150 road favorite versus Nelson Figueroa.

McClellan wasn’t sharp, though, giving up five runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings as the combined 18 runs flew ‘over’ the nine-run total.

Lifetime against Florida, McClellan is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA in seven innings. The Cardinals’ bullpen remains a mystery as five different pitchers have picked up saves.

Holliday continues to lead the majors in batting hitting .418 through this past Sunday. Berkman ranks No. 2 at .398. He became the first Cardinal to have three multi-homer games during the first 25 games of the season.

The Cardinals have been tough on righties, especially at Busch Stadium where they were 40-19 against right-handers.

Sanchez wasn’t sharp in his previous outing, a no-decision this past Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sanchez surrendered three earned runs on four hits – including a home run – with one walk and four strikeouts in five innings.

The Marlins lost that game, 5-4, to the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley as 120 home favorites. The combined nine runs went ‘over’ the 7 ½-run total.

Florida has dropped seven of its first nine road contests to teams with a winning record. The Marlins did win three of five from St. Louis last year.

The ‘under’ has cashed the past four times these teams have met in St. Louis going into this season. The ‘under’ was 12-3-1 in Florida’s past 16 road contest through the weekend. The Marlins also were 20-8-1 to the ‘under’ versus NL Central Division opponents.

The ‘under’ had cashed in six of St. Louis’ last seven games at Busch Stadium when the Cardinals had faced a right-hander entering the series.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 50s with partly cloudy skies, a 14 percent chance of rain and seven mph winds blowing in.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, May 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees 0 Bot 0 Detroit -136 500
Detroit 0 Over 8 500

San Francisco 0 Bot 0 San Francisco -102 500
Washington 0 Under 7.5 500

LA Angels 0 Bot 0 LA Angels +100 500
Boston 0 Under 8 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee +124 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

Baltimore - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -106 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8.5 500

Florida - 8:15 PM ET Florida +143 500
St. Louis - Over 8 500

Pittsburgh - 10:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +129 500
San Diego - Under 7 500

Chi. Cubs - 10:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +191 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, May 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Boston +119 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, Bum!