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Mets and Phillies renew rivalry on Friday night
NEW YORK METS (11-14)
at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (16-8)
First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -135, New York +125, Total: 9.5
If you believe in timing, fate, and gut feeling, then Friday night’s game one of a three-game series between the Mets and Phillies has the distinct possibility to be a little rough on the starting pitchers. When you consider that Mets starter Mike Pelfrey is winless in his past six road starts dating to last season with an 8.76 ERA, and is 0-1 with a 15.00 ERA in his past three starts in Citizens Bank Park, let’s just say those aren’t the kind of numbers that leaves one expecting to see the first no-hitter in franchise history to be tossed by Pelfrey. To make matters even worse, Pelfrey has lost 11 pounds over the past week battling flu-like symptoms. Joe Blanton was supposed to start for Philly, but he was placed on the DL Thursday with soreness in his right elbow. Enter Vance Worley (2-2, 2.78 ERA in Triple-A), who is due to make just his third major league start ever. One pitcher is sick, one is inexperienced, the offenses have started to hit again, and the two teams have combined to win 11 of their past 14 games. For the sake of the managers, I hope the bullpens are ready.
New York is coming off a 4-3 defeat Thursday night in D.C. against the Nationals in a loss that snapped a six-game win streak. Crafty Livan Hernandez was able to slow down a hot Mets offense, scattering seven hits over eight innings and allowing three runs (two earned) to get the victory. Drew Storen came on in relief to get the save. Despite the setback, the Mets have still scored 42 runs in its past seven games. New York's Ike Davis, batting .472 over a career-best 10-game hitting streak, is hitting .441 in his past nine games against Philadelphia. Jason Bay is hitting .333 since returning to the lineup a week ago. David Wright leads the team with five home runs, and Jose Reyes has been the quintessential leadoff man with 35 hits and eight stolen bases, both team highs. "We're coming to the ballpark like, 'We're going to win.' When you don't win, it hurts really bad," manager Terry Collins said. "It leaves a bad taste in your mouth -- especially when you have opportunities to win."
Pelfrey is 6-4 in 14 career starts against Philadelphia, but carries an inflated 5.8 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against the Phils. His team's record is 7-7 in these starts. In his last start versus Philly on April 6 he allowed seven runs (six earned) on eight hits over two innings. It wasn’t pretty. But in his most recent start of 2011, the big right hander (1-2, 7.23 ERA this year) showed positive signs versus the D’backs, going seven innings and allowing just one run on five hits to earn his first victory of the season.
The Phillies return home after concluding a 5-2 West Coast swing. The road trip included the best of times, and the worst of times, or in this case, the best of pitching, and the worst of offense. Phillies starters went 3-0 with a 0.91 ERA during a four-game sweep of San Diego, but compiled an 8.10 ERA in two losses at Arizona prior to Wednesday's 8-4 victory. Meanwhile, the Phillies bats struggled for most of the trip, averaging 2.4 runs over the first five games, before breaking out to score five and eight runs in the last two games of the Arizona series. Placido Polanco increased his average to .389 by going 4-for-5 on Wednesday, Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-5, drove in three and hit his first HR of the season, and slugger Ryan Howard hit his fourth homer of the season. Howard, batting .375 over his past six games, is 13-for-32 (.406) lifetime with two home runs against Pelfrey. Worley has never started against the Mets, but has squared off against other divisional competition. His last major-league outing came in October versus Atlanta, when he held the Braves scoreless over five innings, allowing one hit and striking out three, earning a no-decision.
With a win the Phillies could match a franchise record for victories in the month of April with 17, tying the ‘93 team that went 17-5 and proceeded to win the NL pennant. The Mets have really struggled at Citizens Bank Park recently, as Philly is 14-7 when hosting New York over the past three seasons.
I’m taking Philadelphia to open the series with a win. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also advises picking the Phillies:
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY METS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL). (52-11 since 1997.) (82.5%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*).
And this four-star FoxSheets trend doesn’t see the total score reaching double figures on Friday, and likes the Under.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*).
NEW YORK METS (11-14)
at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (16-8)
First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -135, New York +125, Total: 9.5
If you believe in timing, fate, and gut feeling, then Friday night’s game one of a three-game series between the Mets and Phillies has the distinct possibility to be a little rough on the starting pitchers. When you consider that Mets starter Mike Pelfrey is winless in his past six road starts dating to last season with an 8.76 ERA, and is 0-1 with a 15.00 ERA in his past three starts in Citizens Bank Park, let’s just say those aren’t the kind of numbers that leaves one expecting to see the first no-hitter in franchise history to be tossed by Pelfrey. To make matters even worse, Pelfrey has lost 11 pounds over the past week battling flu-like symptoms. Joe Blanton was supposed to start for Philly, but he was placed on the DL Thursday with soreness in his right elbow. Enter Vance Worley (2-2, 2.78 ERA in Triple-A), who is due to make just his third major league start ever. One pitcher is sick, one is inexperienced, the offenses have started to hit again, and the two teams have combined to win 11 of their past 14 games. For the sake of the managers, I hope the bullpens are ready.
New York is coming off a 4-3 defeat Thursday night in D.C. against the Nationals in a loss that snapped a six-game win streak. Crafty Livan Hernandez was able to slow down a hot Mets offense, scattering seven hits over eight innings and allowing three runs (two earned) to get the victory. Drew Storen came on in relief to get the save. Despite the setback, the Mets have still scored 42 runs in its past seven games. New York's Ike Davis, batting .472 over a career-best 10-game hitting streak, is hitting .441 in his past nine games against Philadelphia. Jason Bay is hitting .333 since returning to the lineup a week ago. David Wright leads the team with five home runs, and Jose Reyes has been the quintessential leadoff man with 35 hits and eight stolen bases, both team highs. "We're coming to the ballpark like, 'We're going to win.' When you don't win, it hurts really bad," manager Terry Collins said. "It leaves a bad taste in your mouth -- especially when you have opportunities to win."
Pelfrey is 6-4 in 14 career starts against Philadelphia, but carries an inflated 5.8 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against the Phils. His team's record is 7-7 in these starts. In his last start versus Philly on April 6 he allowed seven runs (six earned) on eight hits over two innings. It wasn’t pretty. But in his most recent start of 2011, the big right hander (1-2, 7.23 ERA this year) showed positive signs versus the D’backs, going seven innings and allowing just one run on five hits to earn his first victory of the season.
The Phillies return home after concluding a 5-2 West Coast swing. The road trip included the best of times, and the worst of times, or in this case, the best of pitching, and the worst of offense. Phillies starters went 3-0 with a 0.91 ERA during a four-game sweep of San Diego, but compiled an 8.10 ERA in two losses at Arizona prior to Wednesday's 8-4 victory. Meanwhile, the Phillies bats struggled for most of the trip, averaging 2.4 runs over the first five games, before breaking out to score five and eight runs in the last two games of the Arizona series. Placido Polanco increased his average to .389 by going 4-for-5 on Wednesday, Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-5, drove in three and hit his first HR of the season, and slugger Ryan Howard hit his fourth homer of the season. Howard, batting .375 over his past six games, is 13-for-32 (.406) lifetime with two home runs against Pelfrey. Worley has never started against the Mets, but has squared off against other divisional competition. His last major-league outing came in October versus Atlanta, when he held the Braves scoreless over five innings, allowing one hit and striking out three, earning a no-decision.
With a win the Phillies could match a franchise record for victories in the month of April with 17, tying the ‘93 team that went 17-5 and proceeded to win the NL pennant. The Mets have really struggled at Citizens Bank Park recently, as Philly is 14-7 when hosting New York over the past three seasons.
I’m taking Philadelphia to open the series with a win. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also advises picking the Phillies:
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY METS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL). (52-11 since 1997.) (82.5%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*).
And this four-star FoxSheets trend doesn’t see the total score reaching double figures on Friday, and likes the Under.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*).
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