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**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 12:28 AM

Chicago Cubs, Rockies continue MLB odds set

Colorado is 30-13 in Jorge De La Rosa’s last 43 starting assignments.
Dreadful in Kansas City, Jorge De La Rosa has become an underrated effective pitcher in Colorado.

De La Rosa is slated to take the mound on Tuesday night at 5:05 PT when the Rockies meet Chicago in the second of their three-game series at Wrigley Field.

The 30-year-old De La Rosa is healthy and aiming to have his finest season. He’s 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

It’s the ERA and WHIP that are surprisingly good for De La Rosa, a high strikeout pitcher who has had control and long ball problems. Also excellent is his ground outs-to-fly outs ratio, which is 3 ½-to-1.

De La Rosa had ERA’s above 5.00 when throwing for the Royals in 2006 and 2007. But the southpaw has turned the corner with the switch to the National League having gone 35-24 in three plus seasons with the Rockies.

Colorado is 30-13 the past 43 times De La Rosa has started. De La Rosa is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his career against the Cubs.

The Rockies have won eight of their first 11 road games. Colorado had the fourth-worst away mark in the National League last year at 31-50.

The Rockies are leading the National League West despite down seasons so far from two of their biggest stars. Ubaldo Jimenez has yet to win a game while outfielder Carlos Gonzalez entered this week batting just .228 with one home run.

Jimenez was 19-8 last season. Gonzalez batted .336 with 34 homers and 117 RBIs in 2010.

Troy Tulowitzki, however, is living up to high expectations of perhaps being the best shortstop in baseball going into this series hitting .333 with seven home runs. He hasn’t hit well in nine previous games at Wrigley Field, though, going into this season batting .162 there with one home run.

The Rockies currently rank sixth in the majors in runs scored at more than five per game. The ‘over’ has cashed in 12 of their last 15 games through this past Sunday.

Colorado figures to do damage against 25-year-old lefty James Russell, a reliever who has been forced to start due to Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner being on the disabled list.

This would be just the third start for Russell if Cubs manager Mike Quade decides to stick with him. Russell has struggled going 1-2 with an 8.00 ERA.

The Rockies took two of three from the Cubs at Coors Field from April 15-17. The Rockies are 54-25 versus NL Central Division foes. Colorado traditionally has struggled at Wrigley Field, though.

Going into this series, the Rockies had lost 11 of their last 12 in Chicago. The Rockies are used to unpredictable weather playing in Denver. The forecast for Wrigley Field on Tuesday night is temperatures in the 50s with the wind blowing out to right field at 13 mph and a 45 percent chance of rain.

This is the Cubs’ eighth of nine consecutive home games. Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome is 10-for-19 during the first six games of the homestand. The Cubs also have been getting excellent hitting from their middle infield.

Shortstop Starlin Castro was leading the team in batting at .376 while second baseman Darwin Barney had hit safely in 13 of his first 16 starts.

Chicago is 5-1 the past six times it has faced a left-hander at home.

The ‘over’ had cashed in Chicago’s last four games at Wrigley Field entering this series. The ‘over’ also was 5-1-1 the previous seven times these teams have met heading into the series.

After Wednesday’s series finale, the Cubs go on a seven-game road trip beginning Thursday at Arizona.

The Rockies return home to host Pittsburgh in a three-game series starting Friday before heading back out on the road for six games facing Arizona and San Francisco.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 12:29 AM

NHL Odds: Boston Bruins win away vs. Canadiens

Losing the first two games of a best-of-seven playoff series is not usually a recipe for success, especially when those setbacks are on your home ice. However, the Boston Bruins may be an exception.

The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Bruins 3-1 and 4-2 in the first two games of this Eastern Conference quarterfinal series to take a commanding 2-0 lead. But the Bruins have rallied to capture three straight games, with the last two going into overtime.

As a result, the Bruins can eliminate the Canadiens and advance to the semifinals with a victory Tuesday night at Montreal’s Bell Centre. The puck drops at 4 p.m. (PT).

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports’ Real-Time Odds have opened this game as a pick’em (minus 110 each way), with the total set at five ‘under’ (minus 110).

Boston took a 3-2 series lead with Saturday’s 2-1 double overtime victory as a 170 home favorite. The combined three goals slithered below the five-goal closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 3-2 in the first five games.

Boston has seen the ‘under’ go 45-32 overall this season, while Montreal has seen the ‘under’ cash at a 49-28 clip. Additionally, the ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in Montreal’s last nine overall encounters.

Nathan Horton scored 9:03 into double overtime as the Boston Bruins secured the first home win of this series. The road team had won each of the first four matchups.

Defenseman Andrew Ference fired a wrist shot from the left point which was stopped by Montreal goalie Carey Price, but Horton found the puck at his feet and deposited it into the net for the game-winning goal.

Boston’s Brad Marchand netted his first postseason goal and Tim Thomas turned aside 44 shots to raise his overall ledger to 38-13-4-5. Thomas also lowered his goals-against average to 2.01 and raised his save percentage to .937.

After two scoreless periods, Marchand finally broke through at 4:33 of the third. The 22-year-old Nova Scotia native fed Patrice Bergeron, but Bergeron’s stick snapped and Marchand cleaned up a loose puck on the doorstep and banged it into the net.

Jeff Halpern leveled the contest with 6:04 remaining in the third period after accepting Mathieu Darche's centering feed and firing a wrist shot past Thomas.

Price finished with 49 saves in a losing effort. His overall record fell to 40-29-6-2 with a 2.33 GAA and .924 save percentage.

Both clubs continued to have problems with the man advantage. The Bruins were 0-for-3 on the power play, and are now 0-for-15 in the series. The Canadiens are 2-for-16 in the series thanks to a 0-for-2 night in Game 5.

The Bruins finished with a 51-46 advantage in shots on goal and now have outshot the Habs in the series, 177-165.

All five games in this series have been close affairs featuring desperate third-period counterattacks and wild momentum swings.

Though the Bruins are happy to own the momentum right now, they know by last year’s playoff flop against the Flyers (when they blew a 3-0 series lead) that it can change quickly.

If the Bruins win either Game 6 or 7, they would secure their first series victory in 27 attempts after dropping the first two contests of the set.

However, winning in Montreal won’t be easy despite early success in this series. The Bruins are still a poor 9-21 in their last 30 visits to Bell Centre.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Montreal defenseman James Wisniewski as “questionable” with a lower body injury.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 12:29 AM

NHL Betting: Chicago Blackhawks take Canucks to Game 7

It is now a one-and-done series as the Chicago Blackhawks and the Vancouver Canucks meet in Game 7 of their first round Western Conference playoff matchup. Game time is set for 7 p.m. (PT) Tuesday at BCPlace Stadium in Vancouver and it will be broadcast on VERSUS.

The defending Stanley Cup champions were all but left for dead after dropping the first three games of this series, but Chicago’s never-say-die attitude has it poised for one of the biggest upsets in the history of the NHL playoffs. The Blackhawks lost the first three games by a combined score of 9-5.

Chicago was a 164 road underdog in Game 1 and a 166 road dog in Game 2. The Blackhawks lost 3-2 in Game 3 as a slight 109 home favorite and staved off elimination last Tuesday night with a resounding 7-2 victory as a 116 home underdog.

Chicago’s offense remained in high gear with a 5-0 shutout as a 181 road underdog in Game 5 and was able to hammer out a 4-3 series-saving overtime win as a 117 home favorite in Game 6 this past Sunday night.

A win on Tuesday would be just the fourth time in playoff history that a team won the final four games of a best-of-seven series. It would also be the third straight season that Chicago eliminated Vancouver from the postseason.

To make history, the Blackhawks will need to rely on Patrick Sharp and Patrick Kane who have combined for four goals and seven assists in this series. Defenseman Duncan Keith has also come up big with four goals and two assists.

Chicago is averaging 3.5 goals a game against the Canucks after averaging 3.07 in the regular season.

The only injury concern for the Blackhawks is right winger Thomas Kopecky, who is listed as questionable after sustaining an upper body injury in Game 1.

Chicago will also need another strong effort from goalie Corey Crawford, who has a save percentage of .922 after a rough start in this series. His goals-against-average of 2.27 is slightly better than his 2.30 season average.

Vancouver has to quickly recover from its state of shock to avoid becoming one of the best teams ever in the regular season to make a first-round exit in the playoffs. The Canucks led the league in scoring with 3.15 goals per game but have only managed five goals in the past three games.

The Sedin brothers have combined for 12 points, but they have been unable to score when they needed to the most. Daniel opened the scoring in Game 6 two minutes into the first period with an assist from Henrick, but that was it for the duo for the rest of the game.

Roberto Luongo stopped just about everything he faced in the first three games, but gave up 12 goals in the next two games. Head coach Alain Vigneault decided to start Cory Schneider in Game 6, with somewhat better results, but a loss nonetheless.

No decision has been made as to which goalie will be in net for this game, but Schneider is listed as questionable with a leg strain that forced him out of Game 6 late in the third period.

Head-to-head, the two teams split their four-game regular season series this year with each winning one game at home and one game on the road. The total was split 2-2 in the regular season and is 3-2-1 in this series. Vancouver is 44-22 as a favorite this season and should open as a moderate home favorite in this game, while Chicago is 11-8 as an underdog this year.

It is hard to believe that the best team in hockey could blow a 3-0 series lead, but with all the momentum in the world on its side, stick with the Blackhawks to complete the incredible comeback with a win in Game 7.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 12:35 AM

Tuesday Hat Trick

April 25, 2011

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are hard at work showing the masses that they are the best postseason in North American pro sports. There have been 11 games in the playoffs that have gone to overtime, with three of them going into a second extra session. And we’re going to get see three quality battles on Tuesday, two of which are of the Game 7 variety.

Bruins at Canadiens – 7:05 p.m. EDT

There will be a steady diet of hate on the ice at the Bell Centre when the Bruins and Canadiens do battle in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series.

Boston was able to get the first win for a home team in this postseason battle with a 2-1 win in double overtime on Saturday night. Tim Thomas showed why he was named as a Vezina Trophy finalist in this game by stuffing 44-of-45 shots on goal. Even Michael Ryder made an awesome save to stop the Habs. The fact that the Bruins are in control of this series is surprising, when you consider that they have not scored a power play goal on 15 tries in the postseason. That’s even a horrid stat for a team that was converting 16.2 percent of the time with the advantage.

The Canadiens shouldn’t really feel all that panicked about this contest. Even though Montreal lost both of its games at home in close fashion. The Habs will need to be a bit better on defense, which had numerous breakdowns during these last three losses. But they’ll also need to react to opportunities better on the attack. Montreal had a couple of prime chances at scoring in regulation on a virtually empty net. And they definitely need to figure out a what to snuff out Ryder’s play as the form Hab is huge plays for Boston.

One thing that the Habs have on the B’s is that they can close out a series. Last year, Boston became just the third team in NHL history to lose a series after taking a 3-0 lead (the others being the 1942 Maple Leafs and 1975 Islanders). Montreal has a battle-tested crew that dropped the Caps in last year’s opening round after going down 3-1. Then they dispatched the Penguins, but not before falling down 3-2 in the series. Plus, the Canadiens are 3-1 in the last four home tests with elimination from the playoffs on the line.

Sabres at Flyers – 7:35 p.m. EDT

Perhaps this was the only way this series could end. I can tell you that the perspective of this game is on opposite sides of the spectrum for each side.

Buffalo looked like they were going to close out this first round matchup in style after holding onto a 3-1 lead heading into the first intermission. But the Sabres couldn’t find a way to offer Ryan Miller decent help on the back end. That lack of defensive pressure wound up hurting Miller in the end as Ville Leino scored the OT winner in a 5-4 decision.

While the game didn’t finish as they wanted, the Sabres did see their offense come out strong to open out the game. In the last two games, they’ve outscored Philly 6-1. However, Buffalo has been outscored 7-2 in the rest remainder of those games. That falls squarely on the defense playing in front of Miller.

Philadelphia may seem like they know what’s going on for its offense, but is lost between the pipes. The Flyers started Michael Leighton after his strong performance in Game 5. He lasted just under 20 minutes with three goals surrendered, which is still longer than a bag of toot at any of your finer strip clubs. Brian Boucher came in with a great effort in giving up just one goal on 25 shots fired his way. Chris Pronger was on the ice for Game 6, but you may have missed him since he only played just over four minutes.

The Flyers have a similar edge like Montreal has after last year’s playoff run that took them to the Stanley Cup Final. Philly made that historic comeback, and was a very tough out for the Blackhawks. That run had a goaltender by committee feel to it. Yet you get the feeling that Peter Laviolette is throwing darts due to the lack of confidence in all three of his netminders.

Even though the road team has been the play for the majority of this first round, Philadelphia might have the trend to play for this game. The Flyers have gone 3-1 straight up and on the puck line in their last four games this season that went into overtime.

Blackhawks at Canucks – 10:05 p.m. EDT

How many folks are dry clicking their revolvers in Vancouver right now? Okay, that might be a bit extreme, but they can’t like how their Canucks are playing.

The Canucks looked like they were on the verge of clinching the series after taking a 2-1 in the first act of Game 6. Their defense was holding steady, and the decision to put Cory Schneider over Roberto Luongo was a good one. Vancouver’s netminder had stopped 8-of-9 shots on goal he faced. Daniel Sedin found his scoring touch with a goal in the opening period. Yet the Canucks’ defense found a way to mess up and allow Chicago’s Michael Frolik to get a penalty shot. Even worse was Schneider suffering a lower body injury on the goal scored by Frolik. That meant Luongo had to come in with the Blackhawks already swirling through his mind. The end result of Luongo’s handiwork being Ben Smith scoring his third goal of the playoff in OT to force Game 7.

Chicago will be coming into this matchup with all the momentum. The Blackhawks have proven that they don’t need to hit Vancouver every time they’ve got the puck (Canucks won the hit battle in two of the last three games). And they are not making it easy on Vancouver to figure out who to stop with seven different players with at least two goals and 10 altogether have lit the lamp. If there is anything for Chicago to improve, it’s its power play that went 0-for-4 on Sunday night.

The Hawks have the benefit of having beaten the Canucks in the last two postseasons. Vancouver has lost two of its last three Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Also, the Canucks are 3-5 SU in their last eight home elimination games in the playoffs.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:23 PM

Red-hot Sox visit slumping Orioles

BOSTON RED SOX (10-11)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (8-12)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -130, Baltimore +120, Total: 9

Baltimore and Boston have been polar opposites in 2011. Right now the Sox are on fire while the Orioles are floundering going into their Tuesday night series opener.

Boston lost its first six games of 2011 while the Orioles won six of seven. However, right now the Red Sox are riding a five-game winning streak and have won eight of nine, while the O’s have dropped 11 of their past 13 contests.

Boston will try to keep the good times going behind Clay Buchholz. The righty is off to a weak start, sitting at 1-2 with a 5.31 ERA while the Sox have lost three of his four outings. Despite being his only win of the year, his last outing was less encouraging than the result would suggest. Last Wednesday, Buchholz held Oakland to one run over 5.1 innings in a road victory, but he gave up six hits and walked four while striking out only two in that game. On the season, he has 10 strikeouts and 14 walks over 20.1 innings.

The righty does have a good track record against Baltimore, though. He’s made nine career starts against the Orioles, and Boston has won six of them. Buchholz has allowed just one earned run in his past four starts against the Orioles, a span of 28 innings.

Baltimore will go with rookie Zach Britton. The left-hander has been solid so far, going 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA. After a couple of gems to start his career, he’s been a bit shaky over his past two starts. Britton allowed five runs over six innings to Cleveland two starts ago, and in his last outing, gave up three runs in six innings to a depleted Minnesota lineup that’s been completely punchless so far this year.

While they continue to be A.L. East doormats, the Orioles did hold their own against Boston last year, splitting the 18-game season series. They have a great chance to get off on the right foot against the Sox this year, as Buchholz is having major issues. I’m taking the underdogs and going with Baltimore in this one.

The FoxSheets have loads of trends working in the Orioles’ favor, including this highly-rated one:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games. (76-41 over the last 5 seasons, 65%, +35 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:23 PM

Kershaw looks to cool off sizzling Marlins

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (12-12)

at FLORIDA MARLINS (14-7)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -140, Florida +130, Total: 7.5

The Marlins have been tough to beat during their current homestand, but they’ll get a big challenge from L.A. ace Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers on Tuesday night.

Florida put together a ninth-inning rally on Monday night, scoring twice off of Jonathan Broxton and winning it on Omar Infante’s walk-off single. The Marlins have won six of seven on their recent homestand. They’ll try to keep it going with struggling right-hander Chris Volstad on the mound. Volstad is 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in his first three starts. He’s allowed five runs in each of his past two outings; 10 runs allowed in a span of 10 innings. There’s some hope for Tuesday night, as the 24-year-old was far more successful at home last season. He went 6-4 with a 3.57 ERA at Sun Life Stadium in 2010 (and just 6-5 with a 5.73 ERA on the road).

Florida’s batters will have their hands full against Kershaw. The lefty is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA through his first five starts, but he’s also struck out 36 while walking only 13 through 33 innings. The 23-year-old has been very effective on the road. Since the beginning of last season, he’s had a 3.37 ERA at Dodger Stadium, but a 2.39 ERA on the road. Due to a lack of help from the offense and bullpen, the Dodgers are just 9-8 in his 17 road starts during that span despite Kershaw’s outstanding performance. He’s split his two career starts against Florida, both in 2009. He allowed just three earned runs over 13 innings in those games.

Florida has had some success against lefties though. Since 2010, the Marlins have a .346 on-base percentage (fourth in the majors) and .780 OPS (ranked fifth) against left-handed pitchers.

Considering how well they’ve played at home of late, the Marlins are an awfully heavy underdog. Even with Kershaw on the hill, I like Florida’s great track record against southpaws to continue on Tuesday. Among the trends favoring the Marlins in the FoxSheets is this three-star speical:

Play On - Home teams (FLORIDA) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. (223-118 over the last 5 seasons, 65.4%, +75.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:24 PM

Berkman makes return to Houston, possibly minus Pujols

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (12-10)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (8-14)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -130, Houston +120, Total: 7.5

Lance Berkman returns to Houston to face his former team for the first time when St. Louis begins a three-game series with the Astros at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday.

Berkman, who played 12 seasons in Houston before being dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, is thriving with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday batting ahead of him. Actually, Pujols may not play Tuesday after tweaking his hamstring on Sunday night. The three-time NL MVP, who has seven homers this season, is considered day-to-day.

After hitting just .245 in an injury-riddled 2010 season with the Astros, Berkman has been sizzling in 2011. He’s batting .377 overall (fifth in NL), which includes a .488 clip with 6 HR and 14 RBI since April 11. He will try to stay hot against Houston right-hander Bud Norris (1-1, 4.91 ERA) who has loved facing St. Louis in his young career. In six lifetime outings versus the Cards, Norris is 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. In four starts last season, Norris struck out 27 batters and only walked five. Pujols is just 4-for-17 (.235) in his career versus Norris. He is also coming off two quality starts, throwing six shutout innings against San Diego on April 14, then giving up three runs in six innings versus the Mets last Wednesday.

The Astros, who are batting .287 at home this year, will take their cuts against Jaime Garcia (3-0, 1.44 ERA). The young lefty will be looking for a big improvement from the only time he faced Houston, in August of last year. Garcia allowed 10 hits and eight runs (four earned) in five innings as the Astros cruised to an 18-4 blowout win. But Garcia has been outstanding so far this season with a 1.08 WHIP and 24 K and no homers allowed in 25 IP. New closer Mitchell Boggs has also been lights-out with 9.1 consecutive scoreless innings.

The Astros are 11-4 in the past 15 games when hosting St. Louis, and this time they might not have to face Albert Pujols. I’m taking underdog Houston to open this series with the big victory.

These highly-rated FoxSheets trends provide two more reasons to pick the Astros.:

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games. (46-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +37.2 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Home teams (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL). (237-161 since 1997.) (59.5%, +79.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:25 PM

Canucks try to regroup in Game 7 vs. Chicago

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

at VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Western Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Puck drops: Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Vancouver -160, Chicago +140, Total: 5.5

The worst possible scenario for the Vancouver Canucks has played out after taking the first three games of their best-of-seven First Round series against the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks. When Ben Smith netted the game-winner 15:30 into the first OT of Game 6, the Canucks were visited by the ghosts of playoff pasts, which would reach a shockingly embarrassing all-time low if they are unable to regain their balance and win Game 7. The Canucks have lost to the Blackhawks in the Semifinals in each of the past two seasons, and have not advanced past the semis in any of their previous nine playoff appearances despite recording over 100 points in their past five seasons. However, this collapse would be absolutely devastating to a franchise and city that saw its team win its first-ever Presidents’ Trophy and are still considered by many to be the Stanley Cup favorite.

Cory Crawford has been wonderful for the Blackhawks in the past three games of this series, not allowing more than three goals in any game, and posting a shutout in Game 5. On offense, the Hawks have been led by a total resurgence. After scoring just five goals in the first three games of this series, Chicago has exploded for 16 goals in its past three contests. Since joining the series in Game 4 after missing the first three games with an injury, Dave Bolland has no doubt been a huge key to the Hawks success. He has recorded six points (2 G, 4 A) and registered a +6 rating for the series. Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa have also been spectacular for the Hawks, scoring a combined eight goals and registering a combined 16 points in their past three games.

What happened to Roberto Luongo? The entire city of Vancouver needs the Vezina Trophy Finalist to show up for Game 7 if the Canucks have a chance to advance. After shutting out the Hawks in Game 1, and allowing a combined five goals in Games 2 and 3, Luongo has played like a 10-year backup since. Allowing a combined 10 goals in Games 4 and 5, he was removed in each one and benched for Game 6. Cory Schneider played very well in his place in Game 6, but had to be removed after injuring himself on the game-tying penalty shot by the Hawks Michael Frolick. Luongo came on and played noticeably better, stopping his first 12 shots, but still allowed the overtime goal to force Game 7. On offense, Daniel Sedin leads all scorers with five goals and seven points in the series, but has recorded just two goals in the past three games. Meanwhile, brother Henrik and linemate Mikael Samuelsson have combined for just one assist in the past three games.

Chicgo forward Bryan Bickell will miss Game 7. The Blackhawks gave word Monday that Bickell underwent surgery to repair a lacerated tendon in his hand. He hurt himself in Game 2 and he tried to play through it, but needs the surgery now in order to make sure it was healed properly. Tomas Kopecky made the trip with the Hawks to Vancouver, and could play for the first time since Game 1. There was no update on Canucks defenseman Sami Salo, who left Game 6 midway through the first period with an undisclosed injury. Schneider left Game 6 early in the third period, but Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault said he will back up Luongo.

I picked the Canucks to win this series, believing this team was deeper and more physical than their successors of years prior. However, the third and fourth lines of this team, which were so physical and aggressive during the regular season in imposing their will on opponents, have gone into a shell since Raffi Torres knocked out Brent Seabrook in Game 3. Luongo is another story completely, as his horrid play is treasonous for a goaltender who is thought of as one of the best in the league. This is the most important game this city has ever hosted, which includes the five Stanley Cup Finals games they have hosted, as a loss in this game would cause this franchise to most likely blow up the roster after another playoff failure. I still have faith that this team is different and despite all of the signs pointing toward another choke-job, I’m taking Vancouver to come away with the win.

FoxSheets says:

VANCOUVER is 74-38 ATS (66.1%, +74.0 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances over the last 2 seasons. The average score was VANCOUVER 3.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:25 PM

Flyers host Sabres in Tuesday's Game 7

BUFFALO SABRES

at PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game Seven – Series tied 3-3
Puck drops: Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -165, Buffalo +145, Total: 5.5

The defending Eastern Conference champion Flyers showed their grit against Buffalo in Sunday’s Game 6, overcoming a two-goal, first-period deficit, and tying the game after trailing after two periods. Ville Leino’s overtime goal sent both teams traveling back to Philadelphia for Tuesday’s much-anticipated Game 7 in what has been an outstanding series.

Ryan Miller has dominated this series at times, shutting the Flyers out in Games 1 and 4, and other times has looked like a shell of himself. Miller and the Sabres had a great chance to eliminate the Flyers in Game 6, taking a 3-1 first-period lead and a 4-3 lead after two periods, but were unable to slam the door. While Miller is celebrated as one of the game’s elite goaltenders, he has been inconsistent in his playoff career. After advancing to the Conference Finals in his first two postseason appearances, Miller and the Sabres lost each year when heavily favored. Returning to the playoffs last season, after missing the playoffs the previous two seasons, Buffalo and Miller were put down in six games. A Game 7 win for Miller would go a long way for his resume. On offense, the Sabres have received outstanding play from Tomas Vanek, who is tied with Daniel Briere for most goals in this series with five.

The Flyers need their offense to pick up where they left off in Game 6 if they have any chance of advancing to the second round. Brian Boucher has played 11 seasons in the NHL, but this will be just the second Game 7 he'll start. The first was 11 years ago, for the Flyers against New Jersey in the 2000 Eastern Conference Finals. He lost that game 2-1, but he was a 23-year-old rookie who had the look of a future star. Now, he's a 34-year-old who says he's learned from his past experiences. The Flyers sure hope he has, otherwise they might have to rally down a few goals again like they did in Game 6. Daniel Briere leads Philly with five goals, and 2010 playoff hero Claude Giroux has picked up where he left off last season, leading Philly with seven points in this series.

Buffalo has a bunch of injuries to contend with. Tim Connolly (head injury) and Jason Pominville (leg) are out for the Sabres. Defensemen Andrej Sekera (upper body) and forward Jochen Hecht (upper body) skated during Monday's practice, but are both questionable for Game 7. Defenseman Shaone Morrisonn (lower-body) did not practice Monday and also is questionable. Forwards Mike Grier and Patrick Kaleta also didn't practice Monday, but coach Lindy Ruff did not update their status. Flyers forwards Jeff Carter (lower body) and Andreas Nodl (upper body) are day-to-day.

The NHL playoffs almost always come down to who has the better goaltending, especially in a Game 7. Since that is the case, I’m taking Ryan Miller to showcase himself as a true game-changer, and lead Buffalo into the Semis. This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Sabres:

PHILADELPHIA is 4-9 ATS (30.8%, -12.7 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.9, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 3*).

And this four-star FoxSheets trend predicts a low-scoring game finishing Under the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 27-9 UNDER (75.0%, +17.3 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.4, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:26 PM

Bruins try to finish off Canadiens with 4th straight win

BOSTON BRUINS

at MONTREAL CANADIENS

Eastern Conference Playoffs – First Round
Game 6 – Boston leads series 3-2
Puck drops: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -110, Montreal -110, Total: 5

For most teams, winning the first two games of a best-of-seven series on the road is something that almost always leads to success. However, for the Canadiens, it has been the exact opposite. For the third time in team history, Montreal won the first two games of a best-of-seven on the road, and now need to win both Games 6 and 7 to avoid losing such a series for the third straight time.

Tim Thomas has clearly separated himself among the NHL goaltenders to become one of the game’s best. However, the just-turned-37-year old has only won one playoff series in his career, coming in 2009 when the Bruins swept Montreal. For Thomas and the Bruins, another series win over their arch-rivals will go a long way to erasing the playoff collapse of last season when they became just the third team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 series lead in losing to the Flyers in the Eastern Conference Semis. Boston has gritted out a pair of OT wins in Games 4 and 5, and has now set itself up to advance with a win in Game 6. Since losing Game 7 at Montreal in the 2008 Eastern Conference First Round, Thomas is 4-0 at Montreal in the postseason.

Carey Price and the Montreal fans solved many of their issues over the regular season, and now the Canadiens and their fans need Price to take on one major issue to keep Montreal alive in this series. Price has lost his past eight home playoff starts posting a 2.67 GAA and a .873 save percentage in those outings. Along with Price, Montreal needs someone to step up to help out Michael Cammalleri, who leads all players with seven points in this series.

While Boston appears to be relatively healthy, Montreal is dealing with some injury problems for Game 6. Defenseman James Wisniewski suffered an injury in Game 5 and missed almost all of the third period before returning to take a regular shift in overtime. He did, however, labor through much of the two OT periods. Forward David Desharnais injured his knee in Game 5 and did not play after the second period. If he can't go, Benoit Pouliot will likely re-enter the fray.

Despite taking a 3-2 series lead, Boston still has yet to really show just how talented a team it is. I like the Bruins to really separate themselves from Montreal in Game 6, ending the series and leaving no doubt just who the better team is. Look for Milan Lujic, who led Boston with 30 regular-season goals, to register his first of the postseason and finally break out for the Bruins. The FoxSheets show this highly-rated trend favoring Boston to win on Tuesday night:

BOSTON is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game this season. The average score was BOSTON 3.1, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:34 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

April 26, 2011

Home teams have gone 19-26
Favorites have gone 25-20
Favorites that won have gone 11-14 on the puck line
The 'over' has gone 24-15-6

First Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Wednesday Apr. 13, 2011
Lightning Penguins 3-0 FAVORITE (-145) UNDER 5.5
Coyotes Red Wings 4-2 FAVORITE (-170) OVER 5.5
Rangers Capitals 2-1 (OT) FAVORITE (-165) UNDER 5
Blackhawks Canucks 2-0 FAVORITE (-180) UNDER 5
Predators Ducks 4-1 UNDERDOG (+120) PUSH 5

Thursday Apr. 14, 2011
Canadiens Bruins 2-0 UNDERDOG (+160) UNDER 5
Sabres Flyers 1-0 UNDERDOG (+135) UNDER 5.5
Kings Sharks 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE (-220) PUSH 5

Friday Apr. 15, 2011
Lightning Penguins 5-1 UNDERDOG (+110) OVER 5
Rangers Capitals 2-0 FAVORITE (-170) UNDER 5
Blackhawks Canucks 4-3 FAVORITE (-180) OVER 5
Predators Ducks 5-3 FAVORITE (-150) OVER 5

Saturday Apr. 16, 2011
Coyotes Red Wings 4-3 FAVORITE (-165) OVER 5
Sabres Flyers 5-4 FAVORITE (-175) OVER 5
Canadiens Bruins 3-1 UNDERDOG (+170) UNDER 5
Kings Sharks 4-0 UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5

Sunday Apr. 17, 2011
Capitals Rangers 3-2 FAVORITE (-120) PUSH 5
Ducks Predators 4-3 FAVORITE (-145) OVER 5
Canucks Blackhawks 3-2 UNDERDOG (+100) PUSH 5

Monday Apr. 18, 2011
Flyers Sabres 4-2 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5.5
Bruins Canadiens 4-2 FAVORITE (-115) OVER 5
Penguins Lightning 3-2 UNDERDOG (+135) PUSH 5
Red Wings Coyotes 4-2 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5.5

Tuesday Apr. 19, 2011
Canucks Blackhawks 7-2 UNDERDOG (+105) OVER 5
Sharks Kings 6-5 (OT) FAVORITE (-120) OVER 5

Wednesday Apr. 20, 2011
Capitals Rangers 4-3 (2OT) FAVORITE (-110) OVER 5
Penguins Lightning 3-2 (2OT) UNDERDOG (+125) PUSH 5
Flyers Sabres 1-0 FAVORITE (-115) UNDER 5.5
Ducks Predators 6-3 UNDERDOG (+130) OVER 5
Red Wings Coyotes 6-3 FAVORITE (-125) OVER 5.5

Thursday Apr. 21, 2011
Bruins Canadiens 5-4 (OT) FAVORITE (-115) OVER 5
Blackhawks Canucks 5-0 UNDERDOG (+170) UNDER 5.5
Sharks Kings 6-3 FAVORITE (-130) OVER 5

Friday Apr. 22, 2011
Sabres Flyers 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG (+145) OVER 5.5
Predators Ducks 4-3 (OT) UNDERDOG (+120) OVER 5

Saturday Apr. 23, 2011
Lightning Penguins 8-2 UNDERDOG (+120) OVER 5
Rangers Capitals 3-1 FAVORITE (-200) UNDER 5
Canadiens Bruins 2-1 (2OT) FAVORITE (-175) UNDER 5
Kings Sharks 3-1 UNDERDOG (+175) UNDER 5

Sunday Apr. 24, 2011
Ducks Predators 4-2 FAVORITE (-145) OVER 5.5
Flyers Sabres 5-4 (OT) UNDERDOG (-105) OVER 5.5
Canucks Blackhawks 4-3 (OT) FAVORITE (-125) OVER 5.5

Monday Apr. 25, 2011
Penguins Lightning 4-2 FAVORITE (-135) OVER 5
Sharks Kings 4-3 FAVORITE (-130) OVER 5

Tuesday Apr. 26, 2011
Sabres Flyers
Bruins Canadiens
Blackhawks Canucks

Wednesday Apr. 27, 2011
Canadiens Bruins
Lightning Penguins

Winners in BOLD

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:35 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

April 26, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Padres are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 at home after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $720.
Advertisement

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Giants are 9-0 OU since April 17, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Royals are 11-0 OU since July 06, 2008 when Luke Hochevar starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 0-8 (-5.0 rpg) since May 2010 after a loss as a dog in which they had at least four hits but fewer than five team-left-on-base.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Orioles are 6-0 since April 30, 2010 as a home dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $793.
The Phillies are 6-0 since June 08, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $600.
The Athletics are 7-0 since June 25, 2010 as a favorite when they lost by one run in their starter’s last start for a net profit of $700.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 06:37 PM

Baseball Betting Notes

April 25, 2011

It may have been too good to be true, but it appears the Indians and Royals are melting away in the American League Central with the Tigers nipping at their heels. We’ve got the Red Sox hitting on all cylinders thanks to their pitching, the Phillies keep mowing them down and the Mets have bounced back to some respectability.
The Royals were expected to fall soon. Even though they took a tough beating at the hands of the mighty Rangers, it didn’t come as a surprise, even though I was one of the suckers who had Kansas City in two of those losses.

But the Indians may not be going around anytime soon. They’re bats went cold against the Twins, but as long as they have the 1-2 punch of Justin Masterson (4-0) and Josh Tomlin (3-0), they are going to avoid long losing streaks.

Cleveland also has the luxury of having an efficient bullpen. Chris Perez got handed his first loss and blown save of the year Sunday at Minnesota, but the run was unearned and his ERA is still a sparkling 0.00.

We all figured Detroit and Minnesota would come around, and they have, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted the poor play of the White Sox. It’s almost like the more manager Ozzie Guillen berates his bullpen, the worse they get.

Over the weekend, the Chisox may have hit a new low when Detroit’s Brad Penny shut them down, only to get embarrassed and shutout again the next day by Max Scherzer. John Danks took the loss for Chicago Sunday, but he really has pitched quite well despite his 0-3 record. There may be an opportunity to get a lot value with him Friday when Danks faces the equally pathetic Orioles.

And what’s the deal with that team anyway? On paper, the Orioles look pretty good, at least until you see the averages attached to their names. Baltimore is currently 27th in runs scored, 25th in batting average, and 29th in on-base percentage. Those ranks are stacked up against all of baseball, including NL teams with pitchers hitting.

Seriously, what happened? Did the Buck Showalter magic dissolve that quickly after starting the year 6-1 and looking like they could contend for a wild card spot? Since that first week, the O’s have lost 11 of 13 and have looked very bad in doing so.

I tried to make case for them Sunday to sneak one from the Yankees based on Jake Arrieta’s performance against them two weeks ago, but they went on to do the things losing teams do. Even after tying the game 3-3 in the bottom of the ninth against Mariano Rivera, they proceeded to allow three runs to score in the Yankees 11th giving all Yanks run-line players the gift cash.

Things don’t get any easier for the Orioles as they face the hottest team in baseball when the Red Sox visit. Boston is fresh off a West Coast thumping of two of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They didn’t really thump the A’s or Angels with their bats, but the Sox’s staff thumped them with better pitching.

After starting the 2011 season with six straight losses and losing 10 of their first 12, the Red Sox have come to life. The bats are still not functioning up to par, but more importantly, the arms of the pitching staff are all coming up big. Seeing Matsuzaka come up big in two straight starts ranks almost as high for the team as John Lackey finally have a good outing Sunday. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are already in top form. If Clay Buchholz joins the party, how does this Red Sox team lose?

Not one of the regular Red Sox hitters are batting over .300. Their prized off-season acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford haven’t even begun to show their promise and yet they are winning games. Players like Jed Lowrie have stepped in big to the point where Marco Scutaro may be sitting a lot more this summer.

The Red Sox still aren’t a .500 team yet, but they might be the scariest team in baseball right now because of their pitching. Signs are also there that the hitting is coming around when Carl Crawford hit his first home run in a Boston uniform Sunday.

The Mets losing streak didn’t have as much pressure on them as the Red Sox did because the expectations weren’t there, but it was getting pretty bad with the New York media as they had lost 12 of 14 games. But then all of a sudden, Jason Bay was activated and, whammo, the Mets have a four-game winning streak. Bay has hit safely in all four games, including a couple of doubles and a home run, but his affect in the lineup has transformed a team that couldn’t hit for two weeks into one that gets every timely hit.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves with the Mets, they have a lot of areas of concern beginning with their pitching. Their current win streak is against the likes of Houston and Arizona, not exactly the most feared pitching staffs in baseball. They’ll get a chance to continue the ride this week at Washington and then see what they’re really made up of when they go to Philly for three games over the weekend.

The Phillies took two of three from the Mets in the first week and they’ll not only get Halladay in the series, who beat them 11-0 the first time around, but they’ll also have to face Cliff Lee who they missed last time.

Philadelphia’s five-game winning streak heading into Monday’s game has been very impressive because they have shown just how dominant their team is. For run-line bettors, they have been terrific because they won all four low scoring games against the Padres by two-runs or more. It’s very rare to see four consecutive games won by two runs and the total staying under the number. That’s the anti-correlation theory.

Meanwhile, as the Phillies keep rolling, the Marlins are hanging around and even have a better record in their last 10 games. There’s a new hero every night in the Florida lineup and what’s even more surprising is that it hasn’t been Hanley Ramirez is any of the games. Ramirez is batting .182 with no home runs yet, but everyone else has had his back. Pitchers Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez have been outstanding, as has been their closer Leo Nunez with six saves.

Sportsbooks do well with baseball in April

Las Vegas sportsbooks fared very well with baseball in the first month of the season just because some the most hyped team didn’t start out well while others like Kansas City, Cleveland and Pittsburgh didn’t go away quietly. When the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies all win on single night, no matter what the odds are, it’s a good bet that the books didn’t do well for the day because the majority of the public have those teams linked together, or as the key to their parlays.

Sportsbooks can’t make up the true odds of baseball in parlays. There are no pay charts like in football and basketball where there is a house edge decreasing value by the amount of legs in the parlay. Baseball is straight mathematics and it is generally why baseball always has the lowest win percentage for the books in all of the major sports.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-26-2011, 07:58 PM

MLB

Tuesday, April 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston -125 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -133 500
NY Yankees - Over 10 500

Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -152 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle -115 500
Detroit - Under 7 500

NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET NY Mets +106 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

San Francisco - 7:05 PM ET San Francisco -123 500
Pittsburgh - Under 7.5 500

LA Dodgers - 7:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -134 500
Florida - Over 7.5 500

Toronto - 8:05 PM ET Texas -177 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Colorado - 8:05 PM ET Colorado -130 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 12.5 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -133 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Cincinnati - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -115 500
Milwaukee - Over 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 9:40 PM ET Philadelphia -121 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

Atlanta - 10:05 PM ET Atlanta -114 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Oakland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -113 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Tuesday, April 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +101 500
Montreal - Over 5 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +147 500
Philadelphia - Under 5.5 500

Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Chicago +152 500
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NHL !

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