The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NHL-NBA !

[StarDust Bum]

Jays return home to face A.J. Burnett


NEW YORK YANKEES (9-5)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (7-9)


First pitch: Tuesday, 7:07 p.m. EDT
Line: Toronto +100, N.Y. Yankees -110, Total: 8.5

After serving as Boston’s punching bag for the past two days, the Jays return home to host the division’s other superpower, the Yankees, on Tuesday night.

Toronto’s recent road trip was downright ugly. Starting on the West Coast, they dropped two of three to both the Angels and Mariners. They came back east to beat Boston in the opener of their wrap-around Patriots Day series, then proceeded to score one run in each of three straight losses. It culminated in Monday’s one-run, two-hit performance against Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, who had been a batting practice-caliber pitcher in his first two starts of the year.

Getting home should do them some good, as should facing former Jay A.J. Burnett. Since leaving Toronto for the Yankees prior to the 2009 season, Burnett has lost five of his seven starts against the Jays, compiling a 1-4 record with a 6.92 ERA. The Yankees have lost Burnett’s last four starts against Toronto, and his last two starts against the Jays have been particularly ugly. Last August, Burnett allowed eight runs in 4 2/3 at home. In Toronto last September, he gave up seven in 2 1/3. He’s 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA over three starts in Toronto as a Yankee.

Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, in particular, have teed off on Burnett. Bautista has four hits, including two home runs, in nine at-bats against Burnett, while Encarnacion has three hits and has gone deep twice over eight at-bats.

The Jays will throw rookie Kyle Drabek. He’s been outstanding over his first three starts this season, with a 1.93 ERA over 18 2/3 innings. There are red flags though. His three starts have been against three of baseball’s weakest lineups: the Angels (19th in the majors in runs per game), Seattle (29th) and Minnesota (30th). He’s already walked 11 batters this season, and the Yankees are one of the most patient lineups in baseball. It’s a tough matchup for the 23-year-old.

This one could be ugly with Burnett on the mound, but I like the Yankees at better than even money against Drabek. My pick is New York. I also like the Over in this one.The FoxSheets has a whole bunch of trends favoring the Yankees, including this:

Play On - Any team (NY YANKEES) - good offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. (41-20 over the last 5 seasons, 67.2%, +22.2 units. Rating = 2*)

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox head west to battle Oakland


BOSTON RED SOX (5-10)

at OAKLAND A’S (8-8)


First pitch: Tuesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oakland -115, Boston +105, Total: 7.5

Thanks to three straight quality starts from Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and a Patriots Day gem Monday from Dice-K Matsuzaka, the Red Sox seem to have rediscovered something that resembles swagger in building a three-game winning streak. While they are still in last place, they are at least no longer playing or looking like a last-place team (the Orioles currently hold that dubious distinction). Tuesday Boston begins a West Coast swing in Oakland, where they send John Lackey to the mound. Lackey will look to substantially lower his 15.57 ERA against a team he has enjoyed a great deal of success. The right-hander has beaten the Athletics more than any other team, going 17-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a WHIP of 1.173 in 31 career starts.

Offensively, Boston has yet to get Carl Crawford out of the starting gate. Crawford is hitting just .133 and heard many boos this past weekend in Fenway. Jed Lowrie, on the other hand, is 16-for-31, and hitting .516 on the season (not a misprint) with two homers and nine RBI. Lowrie went 4-for-5 with four RBI in the Monday 9-1 victory over Toronto. Dustin Pedroia leads the Sox in hits and BA (18 and .316 respectively), while Jacoby Ellsbury is tops on the team with four HR and nine RBI.

Oakland will counter on the hill with Brett Anderson, who is winless on the season, but has pitched well, as his 2.29 ERA would attest. Anderson is 3-1 when starting against the Sox with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.129. His team's record is 4-1 in these starts. Anderson has allowed just six runs (five earned) in 19.2 innings. In his most recent start start, Anderson went 5.2 innings against the White Sox, and while he allowed nine hits, he only gave up two earned runs. This has been a common theme this year for Anderson, who despite an impressive ERA, has allowed more than a hit per inning pitched (22 hits in 19.2 innings). Anderson has won two of his last three starts against Boston, including a victory on September 11th of last year in which he went seven innings, allowing two runs on eight hits, and striking out five.

The pick here is for the gritty Anderson to slow down the Boston bats and to handle the Red Sox on the first game of its west coast swing. The following FoxSheets trends support this pick:

Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game. (46-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)BOSTON is 0-6 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was BOSTON 2.7, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 2*)

[StarDust Bum]

Braves rookie Beachy takes the hill in L.A.

ATLANTA BRAVES (7-10)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (8-9)


First pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta +105, L.A. Dodgers -115, Total: 7

The Dodgers’ anemic offense looks to build on a solid night when they host Atlanta for the second game of a four-game set on Tuesday.

L.A. is averaging just 3.29 runs per game thus far, fourth-worst in baseball. But they showed signs of life against Tim Hudson and the Braves on Monday. They jumped on Hudson early, scoring three times in the first in a 4-2 win. Every position player had a hit, and they got two apiece from Juan Uribe and James Loney, two regulars who have struggled to start the year (hitting .179 and .172, respectively). Top prospect Jerry Sands made his major league debut, going 1-for-3 with a double and a sac fly.

The Dodgers will face rookie righthander Brandon Beachy on Tuesday. After an impressive first start of the season (one run allowed over six innings in Milwaukee), Beachy has struggled. He allowed four runs in six innings to the Phillies and five in 5 1/3 against Florida, his ERA ballooning to 5.19 in the process.

Hiroki Kuroda takes the hill for the L.A. He struggled in his last outing, allowing 10 hits and six runs (five earned) in five innings in a loss to St. Louis, but he’s still 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA on the year. He’s pitched well against the Braves, even if his career 1-3 record against Atlanta doesn’t show it. He’s allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his four starts against the Braves. The last time he faced them, in Atlanta last August, he allowed just one run and four hits over seven innings in a hard-luck 1-0 loss.

Facing Beachy, L.A. should be able to provide enough run support this time around, and Kuroda should be able to hold Atlanta’s struggling bats in check (3.24 runs per game, worst in the National League). My pick is Los Angeles.

The FoxSheets have a bullpen-related trend that works against the Braves:

ATLANTA is 1-9 (-10.3 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The average score was ATLANTA 2.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 3*)

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago aims to avoid a series sweep


VANCOUVER CANUCKS

at CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS


Puck drops: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Vancouver -130, Chicago +110 Total: 5.0

After dropping a 3-2 decision in Game Three, the Chicago Blackhawks find themselves in the unfortunate position of becoming just the third defending Stanley Cup Champion to be swept in a best-of-seven series. Vancouver, meanwhile will try for just its second sweep of a best-of-seven series in franchise history on Tuesday.

Vancouver is showing the type of killer instinct they have failed to show on so many occasions in recent playoffs. After falling behind 1-0 in Game Three, the Canucks answered back with goals by Christian Ehrhoff and Daniel Sedin to take the lead back. Mikael Samuelsson then netted the game-winner to put Chicago in a deep three-games-to-none hole. Daniel Sedin has been outstanding this series for Vancouver, scoring three goals and dishing out two assists in his last two games, while brother Henrik has dished out four assists in his last two games.

Captain Jonathan Toews finally broke through with two assists in Game Three after going scoreless in the first two games of the series, but he has not gotten much help from his teammates. Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp have combined for just one goal in this series. The Hawks’ power play has also been awful, connecting on just 2-of-12 chances. Meanwhile, in goal, Corey Crawford has often let up goals he should stop, as only one of the Canucks nine goals in this series have come when Crawford was screened.

While the outcome of the series does not look promising for the Blackhawks, I expect the defending champs to show some heart and not go down quietly, especially at home. Look for Chicago to extend this series one more game and defeat Vancouver on Tuesday.

FoxSheets says:

CHICAGO is 25-12 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 3.2, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 0*)

[StarDust Bum]

LA Dodgers, Braves in Tuesday MLB odds clash

About the last thing a lineup that's struggling to score runs wants to see is a 10-game road trip through pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco Park. But that's exactly where the Atlanta Braves find themselves as they continue their long swing through California with Tuesday's matchup in Los Angeles.

The Braves and Dodgers get underway at 7:10 p.m. (PT) with the second of a four-game series. Rookie right-hander Brandon Beachy (1-2, 5.19) is scheduled to start for Atlanta opposite LA righty Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 3.48).

Each club entered Monday's Game 1 with identical 7-9 records that placed them fourth in their five-team divisions. The Braves were down over four units against the MLB money line and sent Tim Hudson to the mound at Chavez Ravine in the opener. Los Angeles, down 2.6 units, countered with lefty Ted Lilly.

Hudson and the Braves were 130 road chalk with seven runs for the total.

The Braves finished up a disappointing 4-5 homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Mets. With the exception of an 11-run outburst during the first series of the campaign, Atlanta has scuffled at the plate, its 3.31 runs per game 15th in the National League. Dan Uggla (.574 OPS) and Nate McLouth (.550 OPS) continue to be the primary rally killers in the order.

The good news is the Braves are playing the only team in the Senior Circuit scoring fewer runs than them with Los Angeles plating just 3.25 per contest.

Beachy hits the mound Tuesday off the worst start of his short career. The undrafted right-hander out of Kokomo, Indiana was charged with five runs, all earned, in 5 1/3 innings last Thursday in the Braves' 6-5 loss at home to the Marlins. Following a brilliant season debut at Milwaukee, Beachy has now surrendered nine earned runs in two starts covering 11 1/3 frames since.

He's never faced any of the hitters on the LA roster, so perhaps unfamiliarity will help breed success for the 24-year-old.

Kuroda is also coming off his worst start of the season, five innings of work last Thursday versus St. Louis with the Cardinals scoring six times on 10 hits, five of the runs earned. The Dodgers dropped that home matchup to St. Louis, 9-5.

The fourth-year pro out of Japan has made four career starts versus the Braves with the Dodgers 1-3 in those games despite Kuroda pitching well. The right-hander owns a 1.92 ERA in 28 innings against Atlanta, his lone win a complete-game, one-hit shutout at home in July 2008.

Atlanta was 5-3 facing LA last season and is 5-3 in its last eight at Dodger Stadium before Monday. The clubs split the four meetings at Chavez Ravine in 2010, the 'over' cashing three of the contests.

Los Angeles sent lefty reliever Hong-Chih Kuo to the disabled list this last weekend with back pain and will also be without shortstop Rafael Furcal who continues to recover from a broken thumb. Atlanta lost reliever Peter Moylan over the weekend due to a strained back. He's lost for the remainder of the month.

The series continues Wednesday with a battle of veteran pitchers. Derek Lowe will start for the Braves on short rest after pitching and winning the first game of last Saturday's twinbill in Atlanta, a doubleheader made necessary by the previous night's rainout. Jon Garland is slated to take the hill for Los Angeles.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Preview: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB betting action heads to the Great White North starting on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays take on their hated rivals from New York in an AL East slugfest.

This series begins with the Bronx Bombers at 9-5 while Toronto is 7-9 and still right there in the battle for the division lead early in the season.

New York's offense continues its remarkable start to the season. Even with Alex Rodriguez not in the lineup for Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks put six runs on the board, which is only a shade higher than their 5.50 runs per game average, third best in the league.

Want proof that this is a team that relies on the long ball, though? Joe Girardi's crew is only batting .257 as a team yet has an OPS of .818. Those numbers rank No. 15 and No. 2 in the league respectively. And of course, the Bronx Bombers are living up to their mantra with a league-best 27 homers on the campaign.

AJ Burnett is expected to be on the bump for the fourth time this season. The truth of the matter is that the same pitcher on a lesser team might be 0-3 right now, but Burnett has gotten the benefit of some tremendous offense. The Yankees lineup has provided 21 runs of support in three games, all three of which have come at Yankee Stadium.

It's not like Burnett isn't familiar with this venue, though. He pitched for the Blue Jays from 2004 to 2008, including an 18-win season in '08 that he parlayed into a huge contract with the men in pinstripes.

Burnett only has a 4.67 ERA on the season, but his opposing batting average of .250 is very respectable and he has a solid 16/5 K:BB ratio. We'd like to see him last a tad longer than 6.1 innings, his longest outing of the year, but it's hard to argue with a man who is 3-0 on the campaign.

Toronto has to hope that its pitching staff does a better job than it did in the series with Boston. The Jays allowed a whopping 27 runs over the course of the four games in Beantown, and have allowed at least four runs in six of their last nine games.

Trying to stop the bleeding will be youngster Kyle Drabek. At just 23 years old, Drabek is expected to be a catalyst in this Toronto rotation for quite some time. He's off to a great start in his rookie season (though he did get his feet wet last year in September with a few starts) with a 1-0 record and 1.93 ERA. Drabek hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start, and though he hasn't pitched more than seven innings, he does have some rock solid splits.

We'd like to see those 11 walks in three starts come down, but we do love the 17 Ks in just 18.2 innings of work.

Toronto did win the season series against the Yankees last year 10-8, including posting six wins in a trio of three-game sets here at Rogers Centre.

First pitch is slated for 4:07 p.m. (PT). The short two-game set concludes Wednesday with Brett Cecil throwing for the Jays against the Yanks' Bartolo Colon.

[StarDust Bum]

Vancouver Canucks in line for NHL odds sweep

One more Chicago setback and the NHL will have its defending champion dismissed via a four-game sweep in the first round. The Blackhawks will attempt to avoid that scenario Tuesday night when they host the Vancouver Canucks.

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports' Real-Time Odds have opened Vancouver as a 135 road favorite for Game 4, with the total set at five ‘over’ (minus 140).

Versus will supply television coverage as part of a National Hockey League doubleheader starting at 5 p.m. (PT).

Vancouver has Chicago on the brink of elimination thanks to Sunday’s 3-2 victory as 100 road underdogs. The combined five goals landed directly on the closing total, leaving the ‘over/under’ 1-1-1 in the first three games.

Mikael Samuelsson, who missed Game 2 because of the flu, scored the game-winner for the Canucks. The goal came on a rebound at the 6:54 mark of the third period after Corey Crawford had stopped shots by Christian Ehrhoff and Henrik Sedin.

Ehrhoff and Daniel Sedin also scored for Vancouver.

Duncan Keith and Patrick Sharp had power-play goals for the Blackhawks. Chicago actually took a 1-0 lead in this contest and later had a two-man advantage, but couldn't extend the lead.

Forward Raffi Torres returned to Vancouver’s lineup Sunday after serving a four-game suspension for a hit to the head on Edmonton's Jordan Eberle. However, Torres is again in hot water.

Torres was called for interference after knocking Chicago defenseman Brent Seabrook to the ice behind the net with a hard blow. Torres was only given a two-minute penalty, but might be suspended for Game 4 after the league reviews the play.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Torres and Seabrook (head) as “questionable” for Tuesday’s Game 4. Chicago’s Thomas Kopecky, who hasn’t played since leaving Game 1 with an upper body injury, is also listed as “questionable.

Chicago center Dave Bolland missed the final 14 regular-season games and the first two of the playoffs with a concussion, but he could be ready for Game 4.

Through three games, the Canucks have proven what many suspected heading into this series. They are not the team that lost the last two years in the second round to Chicago. However, the Hawks are definitely not the same team that won the Stanley Cup last June.

The Canucks once again got stellar goaltending from Roberto Luongo, who raised his overall record to 41-15-2-5 with a 2.09 GAA and .929 save percentage.

Corey Crawford took the loss for Chicago and saw his overall ledger slip to 33-21-3-3 with a 2.34 GAA and .916 save percentage.

The Blackhawks outshot the Canucks for the first time in the series, 32-26.

Chicago, which entered the contest by scoring just once in its last 20 power play opportunities, was 2-for-7 with the man advantage in Game 3. Vancouver was 1-for-2. In fact, The Hawks had 8:24 of power play time, compared to just 1:17 for the Canucks.

The Blackhawks had four first-period power plays but converted on just one on a goal from Keith. Luongo had 15 saves in the opening period, with eight occurring during Chicago's power plays. That included three saves when the Blackhawks had the 5-on-3 advantage.

The Hawks have three goals when skating 5-on-5 in this series, but none from Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa. The Canucks, meanwhile, have seven goals at even-strength in the three games, including a go-ahead goal and the winner Sunday.

The Blackhawks are 0-for-17 in series in which they have fallen behind 3-0.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings

The first round, best-of-seven Western Conference playoff matchup between the No. 3 seed San Jose Sharks and the No.6 seed Los Angeles Kings shifts to Staples Center for Game 3 on Tuesday night with the series knotted at one game apiece. The puck is set to drop at 7:30 p.m (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on VERSUS.

San Jose opened this series with a thrilling 3-2 overtime victory last Thursday night as a 198 home favorite, but was shut out 4-0 as a 187 home favorite in Saturday’s Game 2.

The Sharks drew first-blood in Game 1 by scoring a goal just 28 seconds into the first period. They regained a 2-1 lead midway through the second, but needed a Joe Pavelski wrist shot around 15 minutes into overtime to seal the win.

Game 2 turned ugly from the beginning as San Jose gave up two first period goals and was unable to find the back of the net all game long.

The first game was a ‘push’ against a total line of five and Game 2 stayed ‘under’ the total line of five.

Ryane Clowe was fourth in goals with 24 and fifth in total points with 62 for the Sharks in the regular season, but so far he has led the way in the playoffs with three assists. Dany Heatley, Logan Couture and Pavelski each have a goal, but Patrick Marleau, who led the team with 37 goals and 73 points, has been held scoreless.

Antti Niemi started 60 games in goal for San Jose in the regular season and had a goals-against-average of 2.38 with a .920 save percentage. He stopped 33 of 35 shots in Game 1 but gave up four goals on just 23 shots in Saturday’s loss for a save percentage of just .897 in this series so far.

The Sharks could be without defenseman Ian White for this game after taking a shot to the head in Thursday’s game. He is listed as probable on the Don Best Sports injury report.

Los Angeles finished the regular season ranked 25th in the league in scoring with 2.55 goals a game. While the Kings were held to two goals in the first game, their offense came to life in the second with four unanswered goals. The Kings did it without center Jarret Stoll, who was suspended for a game after his hit on White.

Los Angeles has been without their leading scorer Anze Kopitar since late March after he tore ligaments in his knee, but defenseman Drew Doughty has provided the unlikely firepower in his absence with two goals and two assists in the first two games. Justin Williams, Jack Johnson and Kyle Clifford each have a goal and an assist for the Kings.

Jonathan Quick stopped 42 of 45 shots in Thursday’s loss but was perfect in Game 2 with 34 saves. He had a 2.24 GGA and a save percentage of .918 in 60 regular season starts for Los Angeles, but has elevated his game in the postseason with a rock-solid .962 save percentage through the first two games.

San Jose is 35-22 as a favorite this season and 13-12 as an underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in two of its last three games. Los Angeles is 29-22 as a favorite and 17-14 as an underdog this year. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.

Head-to-head, these teams split their six regular season games this season with each winning two of three at home. The total is 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings.

This time around the Kings should open as a slight favorite, but stick with San Jose to regain the edge in this series as its offense bounces back from Saturday’s performance.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/18/11 12-*7-*1 63.16% +*2595 Detail
04/17/11 10-*17-*0 37.04% -*4965 Detail
04/16/11 15-*10-*1 60.00% +*1765 Detail
04/15/11 14-*13-*0 51.85% +*740 Detail
04/14/11 10-*11-*0 47.62% -*1010 Detail
04/13/11 6-*11-*1 35.29% -*2945 Detail
04/12/11 11-*12-*1 47.83% -*455 Detail
04/11/11 9-*9-*0 50.00% -*65 Detail
04/10/11 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1425 Detail
04/09/11 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*740 Detail
04/08/11 16-*9-*1 64.00% +*2845 Detail
04/07/11 8-*12-*0 40.00% -*2535 Detail
04/06/11 11-*14-*0 44.00% -*1330 Detail
04/05/11 15-*11-*1 57.69% +*1535 Detail
04/04/11 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*45 Detail
04/03/11 11-*15-*0 42.31% -*2105 Detail
04/02/11 14-*13-*1 51.85% +*565 Detail
04/01/11 10-*10-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
Totals 211-*207-*8 50.48% -*3280

Tuesday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 6:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -108 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Minnesota +102 500
Baltimore - Over 8 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Milwaukee +197 500
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +106 500
Toronto - Under 9 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Florida -205 500
Florida - Under 7 500

Houston - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -138 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

Arizona - 7:10 PM ET Arizona +146 500
Cincinnati - Over 9.5 500

San Diego - 8:05 PM ET San Diego +102 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 8:05 PM ET LA Angels +172 500
Texas - Over 10 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +110 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

Washington - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -146 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

San Francisco - 8:40 PM ET San Francisco +136 500
Colorado - Under 8 500

Boston - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -112 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Detroit - 10:10 PM ET Seattle +105 500
Seattle - Over 7 500

Atlanta - 10:10 PM ET Atlanta +106 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/18/11 4-*3-*1 57.14% +*345 Detail
04/17/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*1035 Detail
04/16/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*170 Detail
04/15/11 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*3085 Detail
04/14/11 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*3035 Detail
04/13/11 5-*4-*1 55.56% +*325 Detail
Totals 28-*13-*5 68.29% +7655

Tuesday, April 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Vancouver - 8:00 PM ET Vancouver -120 500
Chicago - Over 5 500

San Jose - 10:30 PM ET San Jose -121 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500