The Bum's Monday's Best Bets MLB-NHL-NBA !

[StarDust Bum]

Lincecum looks to cool down red-hot Rockies


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (8-6)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (11-3)


First pitch: Monday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -135, Colorado +115, Total: 8

When the Giants visit Denver on Monday night, they will be trying to cool down one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Rockies are third in the NL in team batting and have been carried by star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to eight wins in their last nine games. The surge can be traced back to a series in New York the team began a week ago. Tulowitzki entered that four-game set with a .214 batting average; 10 hits, four home runs, and eight RBI later he left town batting .364. The Rockies left town with a sweep of the Mets, and stayed hot over the weekend, taking two of three from the Cubs. Tulowitzki now leads the majors with seven homers, and is tied for second in the NL with 14 RBI.

For the visitors, Giants ace Tim Lincecum takes the hill. He is 7-5 in his career against the Rockies with an ERA of 3.35. He has won his last two starts against Colorado, with the most recent triumph being a brilliant gem last September 24 during the height of the pennant race, when he allowed one run on two hits over eight innings, striking out nine and walking none. Lincecum is 1-1 on the young season, with a measly ERA of 1.86. The Giants were riding a four-game winning streak when they dropped the final game of its series Sunday afternoon to Arizona, 6-5, in 12 innings. The Giants offense is being led by a slimmed down Pablo Sandoval (.340 BA, 4 HR) and catcher Buster Posey, who has a team-leading 11 RBI.

Esmil Rogers will take the mound for Jim Tracy’s team. Rogers is 0-1 when starting against the Giants with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.500. His team's record is 0-2 in these starts. In two starts last season against Frisco, Rogers totaled 10 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) , nine hits, two homers, and six BB. The longest he made it in either start was six innings. Rogers (2-0, 2.77 ERA) was brilliant in his season debut against Pittsburgh, allowing one run on four hits over 7.1 innings, but less impressive last week against the Mets, when he lasted just 5.2 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits, while walking four. As the opposing starting pitcher to Lincecum, Tracy will need Rogers to regain the near flawless form he showed against the Pirates if his team is to triumph over the Giants’ two-time Cy Young winner.

The pick here is for Lincecum to cool down the Rockies. The FoxSheets highlight that SAN FRANCISCO is 54-40 (+15.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.8, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

The FoxSheets also highlight that SAN FRANCISCO is 86-53 (+19.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers try to stop the bleeding


MILWAUKEE BREWERS (7-6)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (9-4)


First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -125, Milwaukee +115, Total: 9

Fresh off a sweep at the hands of the Washington Nationals, the Brewers make the trip up I-95 to take on the Phillies. Milwaukee will send Shaun Marcum (2-1, 2.55 ERA, 15 K, 8 BB) to the hill. Marcum leads the team in wins, and has the second lowest ERA of any Brewers starter in ‘11. The other positive for Milwaukee is that, at least for Monday, the Phils will not have one of the ‘Big Four’ starting pitchers on the mound. Instead, Milwaukee will draw right-hander Joe Blanton, and his 10.45 ERA.

Marcum is coming off an impressive outing in which he held Pittsburgh without a run over seven innings, striking out four and allowing just four hits en route to the victory. Monday he’ll try to show that same dominance against eastern Pennsylvania’s baseball team. The Brewers are 2-6 on the road in ‘11, and could manage only eight runs over their three straigt losses to the Nats. Milwaukee hopes that Prince Fielder will show his ‘10 form against Philly in ‘11. Last season Fielder smoked Phillies pitching, hitting .455 with four homers, two doubles and six RBIs and had a .520 on-base percentage against the Phils. Fielder's .339 career batting average versus Philadelphia is his highest against any NL opponent.

If Blanton cannot figure things out on Monday night, everyone in the Brewer lineup may resemble Fielder at the plate. In 10.1 innings Blanton has allowed 17 hits and 12 earned runs. Opposing teams are batting .500 against him with runners on base. Blanton says that a flaw in his mechanics when he pitches from the stretch is to blame for his struggles. Fortunately for Charlie Manuel’s club, Blanton has pitched well against Milwaukee recently. He is 3-1 when starting against the Brewers, and his team's record is 4-1 in these starts.

The Phils are coming off of a split of an abbreviated two-game series against Florida, after winning Sunday 3-2 thanks to Carlos Ruiz‘s eighth inning sac fly that scored Ryan Howard with the winning run. Howard is hitting .111 with six strikeouts in the last eight games. If the Phils offense are to find its way against Milwaukee and Marcum, Howard will most likely have to be in the middle of it.

While Philadelphia is 10-4, they have lost the first game of a series in each of its last four series (two at home, two on the road). That, along with the combination of a slumping offense, a struggling starter, and an opposing starter with a very strong track record against them, leads me to believe that Milwaukee is the pick here.　

The FoxSheets have a pair of trends working in the Brewers’ favor:

MILWAUKEE is 35-27 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.2, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA is 5-9 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.0, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

[StarDust Bum]

Canadiens looking to go up 3-0

BOSTON BRUINS

at MONTREAL CANADIENS


Puck drops: Monday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -120, Montreal +100 Total: 5

After cruising through the regular season with 46 wins and 103 points and scoring the fifth most goals in the NHL, the Bruins may have taken their arch rivals a bit lightly in losing the first two games of their best-of-seven first round series at home. Only a Patrice Bergeron goal in Game Two has prevented the Bruins from being shutout in the series.

Missing Zdeno Chara in Game Two due to dehydration, Boston was unable to take advantage of their four power-play chances and now are 0-7 in the first two games with the man advantage. After leading the team with 30 goals during the regular season, Milan Lucic has just four shots on goal through the first two games. Tim Thomas has played well at times, but has allowed two bad goals late in both games to hurt the Bruins.

Carey Price is quickly making Canadiens fans forget about the play of Jaroslav Halak during last season’s run to the Conference Finals. Price has stopped 67 of 68 shots, and he ended a personal eight-game playoff losing streak with his Game One shutout. Another hero from the 2010 postseason for the Canadiens, Michael Cammalleri has scored a goal and recorded two points in the first two games. He is one of three Canadiens who have two points through the first two games.

Chara will be a game-time decision for Game Three and his absence would be a disaster for the Bruins, who need all of their weapons aboard to get back in this series. Boston has now lost six straight playoff games since taking a 3-0 lead against Philadelphia in Eastern Conference Semis last season, and they have never won a playoff series when trailing 2-0. I expect a different team to take the ice on Monday. I’m taking Boston to win, with their offense getting on track and Thomas not allowing a goal to get back in the series.

The FoxSheets back up the call with this three-star trend:

BOSTON is 14-2 ATS (+11.2 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 3*)

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Barry Bonds, AL Central and Rockies lead news

The Indians and Royals are defying preseason odds at the top of the AL Central.
Four teams have reached the 10-win mark a little less than 10 percent of the way into the season. Half of that quartet resides in the AL Central and no, that doesn't include any of the trio expected to slug it out for the division title.

Cleveland and Kansas City are each 10-4 heading into action Sunday, April 17. Picked to be the doormats of the group, the Indians and Royals have at least a three-game cushion over the White Sox (7-7), Tigers (7-8) and Twins (4-10). Go figure.

Statistically, it's no fluke. Both Kansas City and Cleveland are outscoring their opposition at a pretty good clip. The Royals lead the American League in scoring (5.71 RPG) and steals (17); Tribe pitchers are fourth in the AL with a 3.31 ERA, a better mark than the likes of the Giants and Phillies.

Given their fast starts, it should come as no surprise to see KC and Cleveland at the top of theMLB betting money list. The Royals are up over 8.5 units with the Indians just behind them 8.3 units in the black. How long it lasts is the proverbial $64,000 question.

The Tigers, Twins and White Sox each have some serious flaws they need to correct in addition to expecting Kansas City and Cleveland to come back down to earth. Ozzie Guillen is still trying to sort out the Chicago bullpen 14 games into the campaign, Minnesota has the lowest scoring offense in the majors and just lost its best hitter in Joe Mauer, and Detroit can't seem to find a consistent starting pitcher outside ace Justin Verlander.

Colorado cruising, Ubaldo on the mend

The Rockies lost the top spot on the money list when their seven-game win streak came to an end on Saturday (April 16) with an 8-3 defeat at home to the Cubs. Colorado still owns the best overall record in the bigs at 11-3, good enough for more than a six-unit return.

Manager Jim Tracy is enjoying solid and consistent contributions from his pitching staff, with the rotation about to get its ace back when Ubaldo Jimenez returns from the DL this week. Troy Tulowitzki has carried the load on offense, however, and Tracy will have to address a few holes there, most notably at third base.

The lineup has been sparked recently by rookie second baseman Jonathan Herrera and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has yet to really find his stroke.

A relatively light schedule to begin the season, especially when it comes to road dates, has played a role in Colorado's quick start. The 7-1 mark away from Denver is all well and good, but it's also a result of playing a pair of four-game series at Pittsburgh and New York. Trips to Florida, Chicago, San Francisco and Philadelphia await the club in the next month.

Bonds, Clemens and steroids. Yawn.

It occurred to me when the verdict in the Barry Bonds trial was announced that it had already occurred to me about 6-7 years ago that I simply don't care about occurrences of steroids in sports any longer.

Performance enhancing drugs rank about 1,415,798th on my list of problems in the world. I'm all for the substances being banned and violators harshly dealt with. In an era when we punish college athletics and pro sports five years and more after the fact, put me down as thoroughly bored and indifferent.

I bought a lot of tickets during baseball's Juice Era. A lot. You're looking at a season ticket holder the last eight seasons the Astros were in the Astrodome and first three years they played at Arthur Andersen Memorial Park, aka, Minute Maid. Mark me down for a share of culpability along with the players, owners and media, with the scribes and talking heads becoming nothing short of sanctimonious in their hindsight.

But if the result is to be trials like the recent one involving Bonds, no thanks. Any need to punish anyone for obstruction of justice or plain old lying needs to begin in other social arenas.

As for the great Hall of Fame debate regarding Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc., again I just don't care. I gave up on Cooperstown being anything more than a museum years and years ago. If the BBWAA wants to elect players without any blemishes from here on out, induction ceremonies are only going to pop up once every 10-20 years.

If the HOF, baseball, the media and the fans really want to punish players for their misdeeds, then hang a plaque of Bonds, Clemens, Pete Rose and others without inviting them to a fancy ceremony.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Betting: Phoenix Coyotes host Red Wings

While Detroit is on the road looking to take a 3-0 lead, the Montreal Canadiens are home looking to go up 3-0 against the Bruins.The Phoenix Coyotes will be fighting for their playoff lives when they host the powerful Detroit Red Wings on Monday night. The Coyotes trail this best-of-seven series 2-0.

The puck will drop from Jobing.com Arena at 7:30 p.m. (PT) and be broadcast on Versus. Keep checking the Don Best odds screen for the latest money line and total information.

Detroit won the home opener last Wednesday 4-2 as 159 favorites. The Coyotes led 1-0 after the first period, but squandered several power play opportunities. They went 0-for-6 on the night in that category, ranking just 23rd in the regular season (15.9 percent conversion).

Detroit didn’t need any comebacks in Game 2 on Saturday. A 4-0 explosion by early in the second period held up for a 4-3 win. Phoenix showed grit by coming back with three power play goals, but the Red Wings held on as 166 ‘chalk.’

Both playoff games went ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal total. The ‘over’ is now 8-1 in Detroit’s last nine playoff games.

Sixth-seed Phoenix (43-26-13 for 99 points in the regular season) needs to build on the late momentum from last game. Winger Shane Doan had two goals and defenseman Keith Yandle had three assists. They are the team’s leading scorers for the year and will need to continue to step up.

The Coyotes are 21-13-7 at home this year, but did play better down the stretch there (11-3-2). Their offense wasn’t explosive either home (2.80) or away (2.71) in the regular season and they prefer a lower scoring game against the high-flying Red Wings.

The ‘under’ went 6-2 in Phoenix’ last eight home games with goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov allowing a total of 14 goals.

Phoenix does have a couple of injuries. Defensemen Ed Jovanovski and Derek Morris are listed as questionable and doubtful respectively with upper body ailments. Morris hasn’t played in this series and Jovanovski got hurt last game.

Third-seed Detroit (47-25-10, 104 points in the regular season) has some of the NHL’s elite players and it’s showed this series. Pavel Datsyuk has been spectacular with two goals and three assists. Johan Franzen got shutout last game, but had a goal and an assist in Game 1.

Those guys are important with leading scorer Henrik Zetterberg out the first two games (knee). He hasn’t played since April 6 and is doubtful for Monday. That’s the only significant injury for Detroit.

Goaltender Jimmy Howard (37-17-5, 2.79 GAA in the regular season) has allowed five goals on 61 shots the first two games.

The Red Wings have been an excellent road team at 26-11-4, second-best in the NHL behind Vancouver. They split the two games at Phoenix this year, 5-4 loss in March and 2-1 win in October. Both games went into the extra session.

Detroit and Phoenix met in an opening round series last year. Phoenix had home ice and won the first game 3-2. However, the Red Wings took the final three in the desert by a combined score of 17-6, including a 6-1 blowout in a decisive Game 7.

Detroit has struggled historically away in Game 3’s after going up 2-0 in the playoffs. It’s just 3-8 in those situations, including the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals when it lost Game 3 (and the series) to Pittsburgh.

Game 4 of this series will be Wednesday night and will shift back to Motown for a Game 5 on Friday (if necessary).

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

During a high-end Rotisserie baseball draft held at the Bellagio in Las Vegas right before the start of the season, a lucky owner grabbed Roy Halladay at the end of Round Two.

That same owner took Joe Blanton during the last round, to which another owner said, “You just nullified your Halladay bargain.”

So far those words are holding true.

While Halladay is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA, Blanton is 0-1 with a team-high 10.45 ERA in two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. He’s allowed 17 hits.

It’s because of Blanton, Philadelphia’s No. 5 starter, who keeps the Phillies’ rotation of Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt from being called the greatest ever by some.

Blanton will try to temporarily silence his critics when he takes the mound Monday at 4 p.m. PT as the Phillies begin a three-game homestand versus the Milwaukee Brewers. The 30-year-old right-hander probably is going to have to pitch well to win because Milwaukee is going with Shaun Marcum, who is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA.

Marcum pitched for Toronto the last five years before coming to Milwaukee in an offseason trade. The 29-year-old righty was 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last season while making 14 of his 31 starts against AL East Division opponents.

Marcum rebounded from a bad first start against Cincinnati to hold Atlanta and Pittsburgh to a combined two earned runs in 13 innings. He shut out the Pirates in seven innings this past Wednesday winning, 6-0, as a 115 road favorite against Kevin Correia. The combined six runs went ‘under’ the 7 ½-run total.

Marcum has faced the Phillies during interleague play going 2-0 versus them with a 3.46 ERA in 13 career innings.

Left fielder Ryan Braun has been hot for the Brewers. He was riding a nine-game hitting streak through Saturday.

Through their first 13 games, the Phillies had yet to lose consecutive times. However, the Phillies were batting just .218 while averaging 3.4 runs in their last five games entering Sunday.

Philadelphia defeated Milwaukee in five of six games last season going 2-1 at home. Blanton went up against the Brewers last May 15 as a 110 road favorite against Chris Narveson and picked up the win in a 10-6 victory.

Blanton won despite giving up three homers and five earned runs in seven innings. He has surrendered 57 home runs the last two years while posting ERA’s of 4.82 last year and 4.05 in 2009.

Philadelphia pitching coach Rich Dubee said Blanton’s problems this year are a matter of location. Blanton has allowed two homers this season. Blanton does have 10 strikeouts.

The Phillies are showing early confidence in Blanton as they could have skipped his spot in the rotation because of a rainout this past Saturday, although Roy Oswalt’s back injury in his last start may have factored, too, in the decision.

The Brewers went into their Sunday doubleheader against Washington having won five of the past six times when facing a right-handed starter.

Milwaukee had dropped six of its last eight road games, however. The Brewers return home on Friday to host Houston. They are idle on Thursday.

The Phillies begin a seven-game West Coast trip with a Thursday game against San Diego. After four games with the Padres, the Phillies travel to Arizona for a three-game series with the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies are 48-19 in their last 67 games against right-handers.

Both Milwaukee and Philadelphia had gone ‘under’ in four of their last five games before Saturday.

The early weather forecast for Monday’s game is temperatures in the high 50s with a slight breeze blowing out to right field and a 30 percent chance of rain

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, April 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 6:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -118 500
Tampa Bay - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -108 500
Baltimore - Over 8.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Milwaukee +113 500
Philadelphia - Over 9 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +155 500
Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -140 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 7 500

LA Angels - 8:05 PM ET LA Angels +133 500
Texas - Under 9 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +109 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

San Francisco - 8:40 PM ET San Francisco -123 500
Colorado - Over 8 500

Detroit - 10:10 PM ET Seattle +109 500
Seattle - Over 7 500

Atlanta - 10:10 PM ET Atlanta -121 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/17/11 3-*1-*2 75.00% +*1035 Detail
04/16/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% -*170 Detail
04/15/11 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*3085 Detail
04/14/11 5-*0-*1 100.00% +*3035 Detail
04/13/11 5-*4-*1 55.56% +*325 Detail

Totals 24-*10-*4 70.59% +7310


NHL

Monday, April 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -123 500
Buffalo - Under 5.5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Boston -109 500
Montreal - Over 5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +120 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5 500

Detroit - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix -118 500
Phoenix - Over 5.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Texas looks to remain unbeaten at home


LOS ANGELES (10-5)

at TEXAS RANGERS (10-5)


First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -145, L.A. Angels +135, Total: 9

After a nine-game road trip, the Rangers get a chance to stay perfect at home when they host the rival Angels for early control of the A.L. West on Monday night.

Texas started the season by sweeping Boston and Seattle in Arlington, outscoring their opponents 42-20 over the six games. Monday’s starter, lefty C.J. Wilson, was on the mound for two of those games. Since moving into the rotation last season, he’s gone 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA at home during the regular season, and the Rangers have won 17 of his 21 starts. He made five starts against the Angels a year ago, going 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA while Texas won four of them.

The Angels will counter from Ervin Santana, who has been far more effective on the road in recent seasons. Since 2008, he’s 16-15 with a 4.51 ERA at home, but 25-11 with a 3.55 ERA on the road. His performance at Texas has been a little less impressive though. His ’08-11 ERA in Arlington is 5.08, though the Angels have gone 3-1 in his starts there. A year ago, he allowed two earned runs over eight innings in a July start, but got touched up for five runs in 6 1/3 in October. His overall track record against the Rangers has been just as inconsistent. In the past two seasons he’s thrown two shutouts against the Rangers, but he’s also given up five runs or more in three of his six starts against Texas.

Still, considering Santana’s solid record on the road, and the fact that the road-weary Rangers just played in New York Sunday night and are still without reigning MVP Josh Hamilton, this is a good night to go with the underdog. My pick is Los Angeles.The FoxSheets have a trend that shows Santana has delivered as an underdog:

SANTANA is 15-4 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)