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**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 01:55 PM

Yanks send Nova to hill vs. Texas

TEXAS RANGERS (9-3)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (7-4)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: N.Y. Yankees -145, Texas +135, Total: 10

Texas dethroned the Yankees as American League champions last fall, and Friday they make their return to the Bronx.

Dating back to last August the Rangers have taken eight of 11 off New York, including two of three at Yankee Stadium in last year’s ALCS. This time they come to the Bronx without reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton (shoulder), but the pitching match-up makes this anyone’s game.

Ivan Nova makes his third start of the year for the Yankees. After a serviceable outing against the Twins in his first start of the year (three runs in six innings) Nova was shelled in Boston last Saturday (four runs, 11 base runners allowed in 4 1/3 innings). Thanks to some strong run support, the Yankees won both of those starts. In fact, the Yankees have won seven of Nova’s nine career starts despite his 5.17 ERA as a big league starter. Nova has been slightly more effective at home, posting a 4.67 ERA in five starts at the New Yankee Stadium.

He’ll be facing a Rangers lineup that’s still potent even without Hamilton, but isn’t quite the same away from Arlington. After playing 12 games in 2011, half of them on the road, the Rangers are averaging 7.0 runs a game at home and 4.0 on the road. Since 2010, they’ve scored 5.4 per game at home and 4.4 away.

Texas will send southpaw Matt Harrison to the mound. The soft-tossing 25-year-old has been a major surprise through two starts, winning both while allowing just two earned runs (1.29 ERA). Coming into the year he had a 5.67 ERA in 32 big league starts. His last start against the Yankees came in May 2009, when they touched him up for seven runs and 11 hits in five innings in Arlington.

Harrison has never pitched at the New Yankee Stadium, which has been the hardest place to visit in baseball. Since opening their new stadium in 2009, the Yankees are 115-55 (.676 winning percentage) at home during the regular season, by far the best home record in baseball during that span.

So while Nova certainly shouldn’t be expected to shut down Texas, he should be able to hold down a Rangers lineup that’s missing their best bat. As for Harrison, this should be the night his luck starts to run out. My pick is New York.The FoxSheets have a few trends that play in the Yanks’ favor, including this one:

Play On - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (73-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.9%, +33.5 units. Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 01:55 PM

Mets, Braves start three-game set on losing streaks

NEW YORK METS (4-9)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (5-8)

First pitch: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -180, N.Y. Mets +170, Total: 8

Not long ago this was the National League’s premier rivalry. On Friday night, the Mets and Braves will just be trying to stop the bleeding.

New York is hurting literally and figuratively. Friday’s scheduled starter Chris Young, one of the bright spots of the Mets’ early season, was pushed back to Sunday after experiencing biceps tendinitis. In Young’s place, reliever D.J. Carrasco will make his first start since 2009. Carrasco, who’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA as a reliever in each of the past three seasons, has made 23 career starts in the bigs (22 with the Royals and only the one since 2005), posting a 5.01 ERA. He isn’t stretched out and is unlikely to work deep into this one. That’s bad news on so many levels for the Mets.

New York just suffered a four-game sweep at home to Colorado, including a doubleheader on Thursday. The Mets bullpen had to throw six innings on Thursday, and their relievers have already blown three saves while posting a 4.79 ERA on the year.

As worrisome as the bullpen is the Mets’ defense right now. They blew two easy double play balls Thursday, sparking Colorado rallies, and their outfield defense has been baseball’s worst. The Mets are just 7-20 at Turner Field over the past three seasons.

As for the Braves, they’ve dropped seven of nine, including two of three to both the Phillies and Marlins to start this recent home stand. The good news is that they’ll have Derek Lowe on the mound Friday night. He’s allowed just three runs in his first three starts, posting a 1.45 ERA while taking two hard-luck losses. Even though Atlanta lost three of Lowe’s four starts against New York last year, Lowe held the Mets to three runs or less each time, posting a 2.96 ERA.

Atlanta’s problem so far has been their bats. They’ve scored just 43 runs in 13 games. Newly acquired 2B Dan Uggla (.552 OPS) has been a huge disappointment, and rookie 1B Freddie Freeman (.569 OPS) still hasn’t caught up to big league pitching. CF Nate McLouth, thought to be a major midseason acquisition from Pittsburgh in 2009, is a .228 hitter with a .699 OPS since joining Atlanta.

But with the Mets’ patchwork pitching staff coming in on Friday, this could be the night the bats get going in Atlanta. While it may seem difficult to bet with the Braves right now, the pitching advantage with Lowe going is too much to ignore. My pick is Atlanta.

Among the always valuable info in The FoxSheets is this four-star trend that bodes well for the Braves:

Play On - Any team (ATLANTA) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP >=1.550), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (77-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +43 units. Rating = 4*)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 02:01 PM

Angels, White Sox start key MLB odds series

Another key AL matchup on Friday is the Detroit Tigers in Oakland to continue their four-game series with the Athletics.The Los Angeles Angels head to US Cellular Field in Chicago this Friday night for the start of a three-game weekend set with the White Sox. Game time is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast on MLB TV.

Weather could be an issue for this game as the forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of evening showers and windy conditions with temperatures in the low 50’s around game time.

Los Angeles took two out of three games against Cleveland this week to run its record to 7-5 on the year. The Halos are currently two games in back of Texas in the AL West.

Angels pitching so far has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.83 team ERA that is ranked second in the American League.

Even more encouraging for this team is its .259 batting average and 45 runs scored. Torii Hunter has led the way with nine RBI and three home runs and Bobby Abreu has done a great job in the role of designated hitter with 15 hits and four RBI.

Red-hot right-hander Jered Weaver will be on the mound for Los Angeles. He is coming off a 3-1 win over Toronto in which he recorded 15 strikeouts while giving up four hits and just one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work.

He is now 3-0 on the year with an ERA of 0.87; giving up just two earned runs in 20 2/3 innings. Weaver is 4-2 lifetime against the White Sox with a 1.70 ERA.

Pitching woes have plagued Chicago in the early going after a couple of blown saves cost it two games against Oakland this week. The bullpen has now given away three games in which it had at least a two-run lead.

The White Sox are 7-5 on the year and one game out of first in the AL Central. Fortunately hitting has not been an issue as their .284 team batting average is the best in the AL. They also lead the league in runs scored with 73 led by Paul Konerko’s 12 RBI.

Philip Humber will get the call for Chicago. He will be making his second start in the fifth spot of the rotation after a solid performance against Tampa Bay his first time out. Humber went six full innings, giving up four hits and one earned run to get the win.

The former 1st-round pick by the Mets was 2-1 last season for Kansas City with a 4.15 ERA in eight relief appearances and one start. This will be his first career start against the Angels.

Los Angeles is 5-4 as a favorite so far and 2-1 as an underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its 12 games. Chicago is 5-5 as a favorite and 2-0 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of 12 games.

Head-to-head, the White Sox have won the last seven games overall and are 6-1 at home in the last seven. The total stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six meetings. The Angels are 5-2 in Weaver's last seven starts against Chicago.

Chicago should open as a mild favorite in this game, but with Weaver on the mound stick with the Angels to come away with the win.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 02:02 PM

Chicago Cubs open MLB betting series at Rockies

Chicago concludes a lengthy nine-game road trip with the first of three matchups against Colorado. The Cubs dropped two of three games at Milwaukee before winning a pair of contests versus Houston.

Colorado begins a six-game homestand with this matchup before hosting National League West rival San Francisco. The Rockies traveled back home overnight after sweeping the Mets in New York, including taking both games on Thursday. The Cubs enjoyed a day off Thursday to travel to Denver.

Chicago has gotten out of the gates with a 6-6 record the first 12 games of the season, placing the team in the middle of the NL Central standings. Colorado (10-2) currently sits atop the NL West heap with the best record in the majors and largest lead of any division leader following Thursday’s doubleheader sweep in the Big Apple.

Friday’s forecast for Denver calls for sunny skies, with a high of 58 degrees and a low of 38. This game is scheduled to start at 5:40 p.m. PT from Coors Field.

Chicago’s Matt Garza (0-1, 5.68 ERA) heads to the hill searching for his first victory of the young season. The five-year veteran fell to Milwaukee Saturday as a 101 road underdog, 6-0.

The right-hander went 5 2/3 innings, allowing five runs on eight hits with three walks and eight strikeouts over 107 pitches and 69 strikes. The six runs failed to topple the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash in both of his starts this season.

Garza began the 2011 campaign with an April 3 no-decision against Pittsburgh. The Fresno State product tossed seven innings, surrendering three runs on 12 hits with no walks and 12 strikeouts. The Cubs eventually dropped that contest as 164 home ‘chalk,’ 5-4, while the combined nine runs went ‘under’ the 12 ½-run closing total.

Garza has not pitched against the Rockies since 2009 when he was a member of Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. The 27-year-old pitched five innings, yielding four runs on five hits (three home runs) with two walks and five strikeouts. The Rays dropped that matchup as a 117 road favorite, 4-3, while the combined seven runs went ‘under’ the nine-run closing total.

Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin (2-0, 2.77 ERA) continued his early season winning ways by upending Pittsburgh Sunday as 125 road ‘chalk,’ 6-5. The Venezuela native was reached for five runs (four earned) on seven hits with two walks and three strikeouts over six innings and 102 pitches with 59 strikes. The combined 11 runs went ‘over’ the 7 ½-point closing total.

Chacin started his season by blanking Los Angeles April 5 as a 106 home selection, 3-0. The two-year veteran tossed seven scoreless innings on five hits with two walks and four strikeouts. The three runs never seriously threatened the eight-run closing total.

Chacin only has one career start against the Cubs, falling last season as a 105 road ‘pick,’ 6-2. The 23-year-old tossed 5 2/3 innings, surrendering three runs on five hits with five walks and six strikeouts. The combined eight runs landed directly on the closing total.

Chicago is now 22-8 its last 30 road games dating back to last season. Colorado maintains a 39-18 record its previous 57 home endeavors.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 02:03 PM

NHL Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins host Lightning

If it’s true that a hot goaltender can steal a playoff series, the Pittsburgh Penguins could be primed for a long playoff run. Pittsburgh netminder Marc-Andre Fleury completely stymied the Tampa Bay Lightning en route to a 3-0 victory in Game 1 of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference quarterfinal series.

Pittsburgh closed as a 130 home favorite, while the combined three goals dipped below the 5 ½-goal closing total. As a result, the ‘under’ is now 6-2-1 in the last nine series meetings. The ‘under’ also improved to 13-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 18 home endeavors.

Most offshore sports books monitored by Don Best Sports' Real-Time Odds have installed Pittsburgh as a 135 home favorite for Friday’s Game 2, which will begin at 4 p.m. (PT).

While oddsmakers raised the ‘side’ by a nickel, they adjusted the ‘total’ down from 5 ½ goals in Game 1 to five ‘over’ (minus 120) for Game 2.

Part of the ‘total’ adjustment might be due to Fleury, who seems to be on top of his game. While the Lightning managed 32 shots on goal, Fleury rarely allowed a big rebound.

Third-year Lightning sensation Steven Stamkos was held to one registered shot on goal and attempted just four. Stamkos was the recipient of the game’s biggest hit when Pittsburgh defenseman Brooks Orpik nailed him behind the boards just 90 seconds into the game.

The result was the fifth shutout of the season for Fleury. The 27-year-old native of Quebec entered the playoffs with a 2.32 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

The Penguins’ defense picked up where it left off during the regular season. Pittsburgh finished the campaign on a four-game winning streak and did not allow more than two goals in any outing during that span.

Though former scoring-champion centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain missing from the lineup, the Penguins still managed to fire 40 shots on the Tampa Bay net.

Nevertheless, the Penguins weren't having any more luck beating Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson, who turned aside all 18 shots the Penguins launched at him in the second period. That kept the game scoreless heading into the final stanza.

Pittsburgh finally broke through early in the third when James Neal fed the puck to Alex Kovalev from the left point. Kovalev, who had been knocked down a few seconds earlier, took the pass at the bottom of the right circle and beat Roloson at 6:05 for what proved to be the winner.

Eighteen seconds later, Arron Asham provided some insurance with a tremendous individual effort. Chris Kunitz gave the Penguins their final margin of victory by hitting an empty net with 41.1 seconds remaining.

Both teams failed to click on the power play, with the Pens going 0-for-6 and the Lightning going 0-for-3. Pittsburgh held a 32-28 advantage in the faceoff circle.

If Tampa Bay has any hopes of tying this series, it must stay out of the penalty box. The club is fortunate the Penguins rank 25th on the power play with a poor 15.8 percent success rate.

However, the Pens entered the postseason ranked first in the league with an 86.1 percent success rate on the penalty kill. Tampa Bay owns the league’s sixth-best power play at 20.5 percent and is eighth on the penalty kill at 83.8 percent.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 02:04 PM

NHL Odds: Canucks gun for 2-0 lead vs. Chicago

No one, least of all bookmakers, is mistaking this year’s Chicago Blackhawks with last season’s Stanley Cup champions.

The Blackhawks opened their first-round Stanley Cup series against Vancouver as 190 underdogs with the Canucks at minus 230, according to numbers at Bookmaker.com.

Those odds are even higher now after the Canucks won the series opener this past Wednesday, 2-0, as 175 home favorites.

The series resumes Friday night in Vancouver with Game 2 of the best-of-seven Western Conference series beginning at 7 PT with CSNC televising. The Canucks are once again 175 chalk with the total set at five goals, the 'over' minus 130.

Salary-cap issues forced Blackhawks management to dismantle much of their championship team of a year ago with 11 players departing. Chicago barely made it into the playoffs, backing in because Minnesota beat Dallas in the final game of the regular season.

Still, the Blackhawks could prove dangerous to Vancouver even though the Canucks opened the playoffs with the shortest odds of winning the Stanley Cup of any team at 3/1.

The Blackhawks have eliminated the Canucks during each of the past two seasons in the playoffs. Last year, Chicago took out Vancouver in six games during the second round of the Stanley Cup.

Vancouver also has changed a lot from last season. But, unlike the Blackhawks, the Canucks have changed in a positive way.

The Canucks piled up an NHL-best 117 points with 54 wins capturing their first President’s Trophy in franchise history. It's the first time since the 1977-78 Montreal Canadiens the same team led the league in goals for and against.

Roberto Luongo, who shut out the Blackhawks this past Wednesday, shared the Jennings Trophy with teammate Cory Schneider for lowest goals against. Luongo ranked among the leaders in save percentage and goals-against average.

Vancouver was the highest-scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.16 goals per game. Daniel Sedin paced the league with 104 points, including a fourth-best 41 goals. Henrik Sedin, Daniel’s twin brother, finished fourth in points with 94, including a league-best 75 assists.

Henrik Sedin led the NHL in scoring last season. Ryan Kesler chipped in 41 goals this year for the Canucks.

Yet the Blackhawks, who opened the series 15/1 to repeat as Stanley Cup champions, still may prove dangerous to the powerful Canucks. The Blackhawks are not your typical No. 8 seed.

Prior to Game 1 of the series, the Blackhawks had fared well against Luongo. They pummeled Luongo in their first road game this season versus the Canucks, winning 7-1, as 150 ‘dogs back on Nov. 20.

Chicago swept all three playoff games in Vancouver last postseason. The Blackhawks are 6-3 in their last nine visits to Rogers Arena. The Blackhawks also are 6-3 the last nine times they’ve been a playoff underdog.

The Blackhawks can score, finishing fourth in the NHL at 3.07 goals per game. Jonathan Toews is Chicago’s top scorer with 32 goals and 44 assists. Patrick Sharp led the Blackhawks in goals with 34 and Patrick Kane scored 27 goals and picked up 46 assists.

Chicago had just one fewer shot on goal in Wednesday’s Game 1 with rookie Corey Crawford making 31 saves for the Blackhawks. Chicago had several excellent scoring opportunities with Toews hitting the post twice.

Blackhawks forward Troy Brouwer played in Game 1 after missing the last three regular season games due to a shoulder injury. However, the Blackhawks are still missing center Dave Bolland, out since sustaining a concussion on March 9. Bolland was very effective in last year’s Stanley Cup against the Sedin brothers.

Vancouver left winger Raffi Torres will miss Friday’s game as he sits out the second of a two-game suspension for a hit on Edmonton’s Jordan Eberle.

The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the Blackhawks’ last 10 games versus a team with a winning record. The ‘under’ also has been a winner in six of Chicago’s last eight road contests. The ‘under’ is 20-6-1 in Vancouver’s last 27 games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 02:09 PM

Playoff Results - First Round

April 15, 2011

Home teams have gone 5-3
Favorites have gone 5-3
Favorites that won have gone 3-2 on the puck line
The 'under' has gone 5-1-2

First Round Results

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Wednesday Apr. 13, 2011

Lightning Penguins 3-0 FAVORITE (-145) UNDER 5.5
Coyotes Red Wings 4-2 FAVORITE (-170) OVER 5.5
Rangers Capitals 2-1 (OT) FAVORITE (-165) UNDER 5
Blackhawks Canucks 2-0 FAVORITE (-180) UNDER 5
Predators Ducks 4-1 UNDERDOG (+120) PUSH 5

Thursday Apr. 14, 2011
Canadiens Bruins 2-0 UNDERDOG (+160) UNDER 5
Sabres Flyers 1-0 UNDERDOG (+135) UNDER 5.5
Kings Sharks 3-2 (OT) FAVORITE (-220) PUSH 5

Friday Apr. 15, 2011
Lightning Penguins
Rangers Capitals
Blackhawks Canucks
Predators Ducks

Saturday Apr. 16, 2011
Coyotes Red Wings
Sabres Flyers
Canadiens Bruins
Kings Sharks

Sunday Apr. 17, 2011
Capitals Rangers
Ducks Predators
Canucks Blackhawks

Monday Apr. 18, 2011
Flyers Sabres
Bruins Canadiens
Penguins Lightning
Red Wings Coyotes

Tuesday Apr. 19, 2011
Canucks Blackhawks
Sharks Kings

Wednesday Apr. 20, 2011
Capitals Rangers
Penguins Lightning
Flyers Sabres
Ducks Predators
Red Wings Coyotes

Thursday Apr. 21, 2011
Bruins Canadiens
Blackhawks Canucks
Kings Sharks

Friday Apr. 22, 2011
Coyotes Red Wings
Sabres Flyers
Predators Ducks

Saturday Apr. 23, 2011
Lightning Penguins
Rangers Capitals
Canadiens Bruins
Kings Sharks

Sunday Apr. 24, 2011
Red Wings Coyotes
Ducks Predators
Flyers Sabres
Canucks Blackhawks

Monday Apr. 25, 2011
Capitals Rangers
Penguins Lightning
Sharks Kings

Tuesday Apr. 26, 2011
Sabres Flyers
Bruins Canadiens
Blackhawks Canucks
Predators Ducks

Wednesday Apr. 27, 2011
Rangers Capitals
Canadiens Bruins
Lightning Penguins
Kings Sharks
Coyotes Red Wings

Winners in BOLD

**StarDust Bum** · 04-15-2011, 07:28 PM

Friday, April 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +117 500
Pittsburgh - Over 5 500

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET Washington -160 500
Washington - Under 5 500

Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Vancouver -178 500
Vancouver - Over 5 500

Nashville - 10:30 PM ET Nashville +129 500
Anaheim - Over 5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Friday's MLB-NHL Best Bets ! NHL Last Night Goes 5-0-1 !

The Bum's Friday's MLB-NHL Best Bets ! NHL Last Night Goes 5-0-1 !

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