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**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:24 AM

Orioles try to stop 3-game losing skid

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (6-4)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (6-4)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -190, Baltimore +180, Total: 9.5

The Baltimore Orioles finish their two-game series with the Yankees in the Bronx on Thursday night when Jake Arrieta (1-1, 8.68 ERA) takes on Phil Hughes (0-1, 16.50 ERA).

After starting the season 6-1, the Orioles have lost their last three. Baltimore’s pitching staff has not performed well during this three-game losing streak, allowing 23 runs and 45 base-runners in those 26 innings. Arrieta dominated the Rays in his first start this season allowing just six hits and one earned run in six innings, then was beaten up by the Tigers allowing six hits and eight runs in just 3.1 innings. He has had success against New York, going 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in his only two career starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees have traded wins and losses in their past seven games after starting the season with consecutive wins. The Yankees are not hitting for a very high team average (only three regulars have batting averages above .237), but they are still scoring runs, averaging 5.7 per game through their first 10 contests. Phil Hughes has been an absolute disaster in his first two starts this season, allowing 12 hits and 11 ER in his six innings pitched. After struggling in his first four starts against the Orioles (1-2, 8.66 ERA), Hughes has done well against Baltimore since, going 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA.

Despite Baltimore’s hyped young pitching staff and its new outlook on the season with Buck Showalter there for a full year, the Orioles have to prove they can win in the Bronx. Since 1998, Baltimore is 35-77 (.313) at Yankee Stadium and 4-12 at the New Yankee Stadium. Their team ERA over that 112-game span is 5.48. Until they sweep a series or show they can consistently win there, I’m taking New York to win. The FoxSheets also back up the Yankees pick with this trend:

BALTIMORE is 25-52 (32.5%, -22.6 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.6, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:51 AM

Cardinals, LA Dodgers open MLB odds series

There are reasons why the St. Louis Cardinals have dropped seven of their first 11 games this season. Star pitcher Adam Wainwright is out for the season, Albert Pujols is batting only .200 with one home run in his first 45 at bats and Matt Holliday missed seven games.

But perhaps the major reason why the Cardinals are off to such a slow start is because they just aren’t very good.

Things may not get better either as the Cardinals begin a four-game road series Thursday at 7:10 p.m. PT against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The opening pitching matchup is Jaime Garcia versus Hiroki Kuroda, who has a 1.42 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19 career innings against St. Louis.

The Dodgers have excellent starters, closer Jonathan Broxton has five saves in the team’s first 11 games and outfielder Matt Kemp was leading the majors with a .472 batting average while also stealing a league-high seven bases.

The Cardinals had scored three runs or fewer in seven of their first nine games before breaking through for some big run totals at hitter-friendly Chase Field against Arizona.

The Cardinals haven’t faced many top-flight pitchers either going against Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Barry Enright to name a few.

The only pitcher better than Kuroda the Cardinals have dealt with was Matt Cain, who got the best of Garcia this past Saturday, 3-2, as a 145 home favorite. The combined five runs went ‘under’ the 6 ½-run total.

Garcia gave up just one run and struck out nine in six innings while not factoring in the decision. The 24-year-old lefty is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA this year after posting the National League’s fourth-best ERA last season at 2.70.

There’s a lot of pressure on Garcia with Wainwright gone for the season. Garcia tired at the end of last year with a 3.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his last 11 starts.

Garcia’s career ERA is 1.88 runs higher on the road than at Busch Stadium. He’s not going to get a lot of defensive help either from the left side of his infield with David Freese at third and Ryan Theriot at shortstop.

Garcia went up against the Dodgers once last year and didn’t receive a decision in an 8-4 victory last July 16. Garcia allowed two runs on eight hits with a walk and four strikeouts while pitching only 3 1/3 innings. Garcia was a 130 home favorite against Chad Billingsley.

The Cardinals won four of seven from the Dodgers last year, but were swept in all three games at Dodger Stadium. St. Louis has lost in its last five visits to Dodger Stadium.

St. Louis was 17-6 versus National League West foes through Tuesday.

The Dodgers are 6-0 the past six times they’ve been ‘chalk.’ They also were 11-6 in their last 17 games going into Wednesday.

However, Los Angeles has infield injuries. Shortstop Rafael Furcal is expected to be out four-to-six weeks after suffering a broken thumb this past Monday.

Third baseman Casey Blake missed his third straight game on Tuesday because of a deep thigh bruise suffered this past Saturday night.

The 36-year-old Kuroda is 2-0 this year with a 1.72 ERA. The right-hander was 11-13 last year, but had a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He also fanned 159 batters while issuing 48 walks.

The Dodgers are 5-1 the past six times Kuroda has pitched at home versus a foe with a losing record.

The ‘under’ is 9-2-1 the past 12 times the Cardinals have gone against a right-handed starter entering Wednesday.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:51 AM

MLB Odds: Hughes, NY Yankees host Orioles

The New York Yankees finish a shortened two-game series against the Baltimore Orioles Thursday night in the Bronx. The Yankees will throw out pitcher Phil Hughes, who has had a nightmare start to the season.

First pitch from Yankees Stadium will be 4:05 p.m. (PT). Baltimore will send Jake Arrieta (1-1, 8.68 ERA) to the mound.

These teams were rained out Tuesday, with A.J. Burnett matched up with Chris Tillman on Wednesday. Baltimore (6-3) leads the Yankees (5-4) by one game in the AL East standings pending Wednesday’s final, with the division-favorite Red Sox languishing at the bottom (2-9).

Hughes (0-1, 16.50 ERA) is one of MLB’s biggest disappointments so far. The retirement of Andy Pettitte, and the undependability of Burnett, meant that Hughes was badly needed for the Yanks’ playoff hopes this year.

Burnett has pitched pretty well, while Hughes has been downright awful. He hasn’t lasted more than four innings in his two starts, most recently six earned runs over two innings at Boston last Friday. Batters are hitting a Ted Williams-like .414 off him.

Manager Joe Girardi says he isn’t concerned, but that’s just talk with the problems starting in spring training. Hughes’ fastball is significantly down from the 93-94 mph last year. His fastball has always been pretty straight and he can’t get it by hitters at 89 mph.

Hughes’ home outing this year was April 3 vs. Detroit. He allowed five earned runs over four innings in a 10-7 loss. His ERA at home last year (4.66) was higher than away (3.47), although he was 11-4 at home due to good run support.

The 24-year-old righty was 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in three starts against Baltimore last year. The one home start was June 2, one run and six hits allowed over seven innings.

The Yankees are scoring 5.8 runs per game in six home games this year (4-2 record). That was also their average last year when they ranked second in MLB.

Baltimore started the season 6-1, including handing the Texas Rangers their first loss of the year last Saturday (5-0). The Rangers rebounded by taking the next two (13-1, 3-0) with the O’s bats going silent.

The offense was expected to have big improvement after adding veterans Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy. However, Reynolds (.782) is the only one of those players above .700 OPS so far and team scoring is a mediocre 3.9 runs per game.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 for Baltimore this year, while the ‘over’ is 6-3 for New York.

Baltimore’s ERA ranks fifth in the AL (3.33) with the starters ranked third (2.98). Jeremy Guthrie and rookie Zach Britton both sport early ERA’s under 1.00.

Arrieta has made two starts, both at home. He first allowed one run over six innings in a 5-1 win over Detroit. His outing against Texas last Saturday was far less fruitful, eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings in a 13-1 shellacking. That was the second half of a doubleheader.

The 25-year-old righty went 6-6 with a 4.66 ERA as a rookie last year. He was 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts versus New York. His strikeout rate was just 4.66 overall.

Arrieta was 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA away last year. He made one appearance at Yankees Stadium last September, allowing two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 6-2 win. Baltimore went just 2-7 in the Bronx last season.

Hardy is on the DL with an oblique injury. New York is not reporting any significant injuries.

Umpire Kerwin Danley will call balls and strikes. The home team is 44-19 in his last 63 games behind home plate. The Orioles are 5-17 in his last 22 games behind the dish.

Weather should be all cleared and in the upper 50s. Baltimore plays a weekend series in Cleveland and the Yanks will host hot Texas.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:52 AM

NHL Betting Preview: Flyers battle Buffalo Sabres

The Philadelphia Flyers will begin their attempt at a second consecutive run to the Stanley Cup finals when they host the red-hot Buffalo Sabres in Thursday’s Game 1 of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference quarterfinal series. The puck drops from Philadelphia’s Wells Fargo Center at 4:35 p.m. (PT).

The major difference between Philadelphia’s excursion to last season’s Cup Finals and this year’s trip is seeding. The Flyers will be starting from the No. 2 position instead of last year's seventh seed.

Most sports books monitored by Don Best Sports' Real-Time Odds have opened the Flyers as 155 favorites to capture the series, with the Sabres at plus 135. That is the closest spread of any Eastern Conference series.

Philadelphia also opened as a 160 home favorite for Thursday’s Game 1, with the total set at 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus 130). The Flyers will be after their first championship since winning the last of consecutive Stanley Cup championships in 1975.

Despite being seeded seventh last year, the Flyers made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before being eliminated by Chicago in six games.

The Flyers limped to the finish line this season by dropping five of their last six games, allowing 21 goals in the process. They yielded three goals or more in each of their last five games.

Things were quite the opposite in Buffalo, where the Sabres captured eight of their last 10 encounters. Buffalo notched three shutouts during that 10-game span and allowed two goals or less on three other occasions.

These Eastern Conference foes split four meetings this season, with the Flyers winning the first two matchups 6-3 and 5-2. The Sabres took the two most recent hook-ups, 5-3 and 4-3 in overtime. All four endeavors skipped ‘over’ the NHL odds.

The history

The Flyers will face the Sabres in a playoff series for the ninth time, which is the second most of any opponent the Flyers have faced in the playoffs.

The Flyers are 5-3 against Buffalo in the playoffs. Their last meeting was in 2006 when Buffalo won in six games during the first round. The Sabres have won three of the last four series between the clubs dating back to 1998. Prior to that, the Flyers won four in a row between 1975 and 1997.

The injuries

Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Chris Pronger is listed as “doubtful” on the Don Best Sports injury report. Pronger, a former NHL MVP, has been sidelined since having hand surgery in March. He also missed time with a foot injury and was limited to just 50 games this season.

The five-time All-Star had four goals and 21 assists for 25 points. He's an integral part of the team's defense and plays a key role on special teams.

Flyers left wing Jody Shelley is listed as “questionable” with an eye injury.

The Sabres practiced for about an hour on Tuesday, including injured defenseman Andrej Sekera. The four-year veteran missed the last two games of the regular season because of an upper-body injury. But coach Lindy Ruff said that Sekera was able to successfully get through the workout.

Sekera, who is listed as “questionable,” finished with a career-high 29 points in 76 games this season.

Offense

Philadelphia (3rd at 3.1 GPG – Buffalo (9th at 2.9 GPG)

Defense

Philadelphia (11th at 2.6 GA – Buffalo (16th at 2.8 GA).

Special teams

Philadelphia is 19th on power play at 16.6 percent and 15th on penalty kill at 82.8 percent). Buffalo is ninth on power play and 13th on penalty kill at 83.1 percent.

Contrasting 13s

The Flyers have scored 13 shorthanded goals this season, which is the second-best mark in the league. The Sabres have allowed 13 shorthanded goals this season, which is the third-worst mark in the NHL.

Philadelphia will host Game 2 of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference quarterfinal series on Saturday at 2 p.m. (PT).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:53 AM

San Jose Sharks, LA Kings begin NHL betting series

San Jose (48-25-4-5) takes the postseason ice Thursday versus Los Angeles (46-30-4-2) in an effort to exercise some playoff demons in the Western Conference. The fact that the Sharks are the biggest favorite in a first-round series probably won’t help a franchise that has traditionally struggled after the regular season.

Second-seed San Jose earned 105 points during the regular campaign, and enters this series as overwhelming minus 335 ‘chalk’ to advance to the next round. The Sharks ranked sixth in the league in goals scored with an average of three goals per game, while the Kings struggled at 25th (2.5).

Don Best's Real-Time Odds has San Jose as a 210 home favorite for Game 1, with the total set at five, ‘over’ (-130). Thursday’s opener is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. PT from the Sharks’ HP Pavilion.

San Jose and Los Angeles split six games this season, with the Kings winning a pair by shootout. The Sharks prevailed Nov. 15 as 120 home ‘chalk,’ 6-3, Jan. 1 as a 107 road underdog, 1-0, and April 4 as a 165 home favorite, 6-1. Los Angeles triumphed Dec. 27 as a 140 road ‘dog, 4-0, Jan. 26 in a shootout as 115 home ‘chalk,’ 3-2, and March 24 via shootout as a 114 home favorite, 4-3.

The favorite is 6-2 the previous eight encounters in this series. The Kings have struggled to a dismal 8-19 ledger their previous 27 trips to San Jose.

Los Angeles concluded the regular season by dropping three of its last four outings, and the lone triumph occurred in a home shootout. The Kings fell to Anaheim Saturday as 130 home ‘chalk,’ 3-1, while the combined four goals failed to topple the 5 ½-goal closing total.

Los Angeles lost despite enjoying sizeable advantages in faceoffs won, 38-21, and shots on goal, 44-20. Ryan Smyth scored the Kings’ lone goal in the second period, while netminder Jonathan Quick stopped 17 shots.

Los Angeles has seen the ‘under’ go 6-1-1 its last eight outings overall. The Kings have also seen the ‘under’ go 12-3-1 the previous 16 outings when listed as an underdog.

San Jose had dropped back-to-back outings before upending Phoenix Saturday as a 159 home favorite, 3-1. The combined four goals failed to eclipse the five-goal closing total, ending a string of five straight ‘over’ outings.

The Sharks led in faceoffs won, 38-33, and shots on goal, 37-36, and two of their goals occurred during the power play. Goaltender Anntti Niemi stonewalled 35 shots, while Joe Pavelski, Ian White and Logan Couture lit the lamp.

Niemi helped the Chicago Blackhawks capture last year’s Stanley Cup, and was between the pipes for 35 wins this season. The Finland native had a solid .920 save percentage to go along with a miniscule goals against average of just 2.38.

San Jose is now 20-6 its past 26 outings following a victory. The Sharks have seen the ‘over’ go 10-2-1 their previous 13 contests overall.

Los Angeles center Anze Kopitar will miss this series due to an ankle injury, while right wing Justin Williams (shoulder) is ‘probable’ for Thursday’s opener versus the Sharks. San Jose right wing Ryane Clowe (lower body) is ‘probable’ against the Kings.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:54 AM

MLB Betting: NY Mets, Twins early totals leaders

MLB totals are taking shape in the early part of 2011 with the Mets surprising ’over’ leaders.
We might only be a couple handfuls of games into the MLB betting season, but here at Don Best we've already got a rock-solid idea about how some teams are going to be playing this year in terms of high-scoring and low-scoring games.

Check out the teams that have been hitting balls out of the park left and right, thus playing a ton of 'over' duels, as well as the squads that have engaged in a ton of pitchers' duels and have been playing 'under' games all season.

You don't normally think of the New York Mets as a team that would be playing a ton of 'over' games, but perhaps you should. Through 10 games this season, the Metropolitans are 9-0-1 for 'over' bettors.

This really does make a lot of sense considering the fact that they have seen a lot of 7½- and 8-run 'totals' on the board this year, which is clearly a case of the oddsmakers undervaluing their bats...and overvaluing their arms. We still challenge you to find a team that has a worse starting rotation than New York. You'll be hard pressed to find one. There's a reason that this team is ranked dead last in baseball in WHIP at 1.64 as a team.

We don't have to stray from the NL East to find the next dynamo 'over' squad, but this one might be a tad more surprising. The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-1-1 in their first 10 games of the season in favor of higher scoring games. The simple fact is that the oddsmakers are putting too much stock in just how good this starting rotation is.

Sure, Joe Public loves to bet 'unders' in games in which Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and the sorts are on the bump, but we have to remember that this is still a lineup which is averaging 6.30 runs per game on the campaign.

Guys like Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and the rest just aren't going to let down, and we wouldn't be surprised to see these 'overs' keep on rolling.

On the other side of the coin, we have some teams that are definitely underachieving to start off the campaign. The Minnesota Twins are only 4-6 through 10 games, but they are 8-2 towards the 'under.' The pitching staff has been sufficient, posting a 4.09 team ERA, but the offense has just been downright atrocious.

The Twins lineup ranks dead last in baseball at 2.80 runs per game, and only has a grand total of three home runs in those 10 games. A .225 batting average leaves plenty to be desired, while an OPS of .575 is the worst in the game. Of course, if you think that Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are batting .222 and .235 respectively for the whole season, you've got another think coming.

The better example of a team that might be playing low scorers all season long is the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays got out of the blocks in horrifying form at just 3-8, but their pitching staff is going to stay rock solid all season long. The starters, save Jeff Niemann have respectable ERAs, and the bullpen, save Jacob McGee and Juan Cruz, has really done its job.

These bats have just been terrible, though. Evan Longoria doesn't have a hit yet and is now on the DL, and the only men with at least 20 at bats hitting better than .230 on the campaign are Sam Fuld and BJ Upton. Trying to replace Manny Ramirez, Carlos Peña, Carl Crawford and Jason Bartlett is proving to be a lot more difficult than the Rays figured, and that being said, this could be your consummate 'under' team for the foreseeable future

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:56 AM

Thursday Tips

April 13, 2011

The Thursday baseball card features a handful of divisional matchups on getaway day. The surprising Orioles look to knock off the Yankees, while the Phillies send out one of their aces at Washington. We'll start in Atlanta with the Braves trying to finish off the Fish.

Marlins at Braves - 7:05 PM EST

These two NL East rivals have been unimpressive out of the gate, as both clubs look to end this series with a victory. The Braves blanked the Marlins on Tuesday to extend their winning streak to six at Turner Field over Florida dating back to last August. The Fish will try to turn things around with their second big arm taking the mound.

Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 2.40 ERA) has turned in a pair of quality starts against the Mets and Astros through his first two outings. The right-hander shined in Houston by tossing eight innings and scattering eight hits in a 4-3 victory as a short road favorite. Nolasco has seen his ups and downs against the Braves over the years, as Florida went 1-2 in his three starts last season. In the lone victory, Nolasco struck out 11 and outdueled Tim Hudson in an Independence Day victory as a $1.50 road underdog.

The Braves send out Brandon Beachy (0-1, 3.75 ERA), who looks for his first career victory. Beachy picked up a no-decision in a 2-1 win at Milwaukee, as the righty went six innings, while allowing four hits and one earned run. Martin Prado and Dan Uggla knocked out a pair of solo homers to grab the win, the only victory in the four-game set at Miller Park. Beachy was unable to capitalize off a solid debut by getting racked against the Phillies, giving up four earned runs and seven hits in six innings of a 10-2 setback.

Phillies at Nationals - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia was tripped up in the series opener at Washington, 7-4, as all three of the Phillies' losses have come in Game 1 of a series. The Phillies send their southpaw ace to the mound in the series finale at Nationals Park, looking to rebound from a horrific showing his last time out.

Cliff Lee (1-1, 7.84 ERA) was knocked around at Atlanta in a 6-3 setback, allowing six earned runs and 10 hits in just 3.1 innings of work. The Phillies blew an early 3-0 lead thanks to the Braves getting to the former Cy Young Award winner, the shortest outing for Lee since going three innings in a 7-0 loss at Houston in September 2009. Lee faced the Nationals twice in his first go-around with the Phillies two seasons ago, beating Washington each time as a favorite of at least $2.00.

The Nationals counter with Jordan Zimmermann (1-1, 3.18 ERA), who has seen his best days against the high-flying Phillies. Zimmermann allowed five earned runs each in a pair of losses to Philadelphia in two career starts, while yielding three homers in a 5-2 defeat at Citizens Bank Park last September. The 24-year old picked up a nice underdog victory over the Mets in his last outing by scattering six hits and two earned runs in 5.1 innings of a 6-2 triumph at Citi Field.

Orioles at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

Baltimore has cooled off since a 6-1 start with back-to-back losses to Texas, but the O's still lead the AL East as they continue their short series with the Yankees. The Bombers have been up and down to start the season in this bizarre division race with the Red Sox and Rays struggling mightily. New York has owned this series recently with a 13-5 mark the last 18 meetings as one of its young right-handers tries to improve on a slow start.

The Yankees send out Phil Hughes (0-1, 16.50 ERA), who has been lit up against the Red Sox and Tigers, both New York losses. Boston picked up its first win of the season against Hughes, who allowed seven hits and six earned runs in two innings of a 9-6 setback at Fenway Park. Hughes struggled in his season debut against Detroit at home by giving up a pair of homers and five earned runs in a 10-7 defeat.

Jacob Arrieta (1-1, 8.68 ERA) turned in a strong effort in his season debut against the Tigers by allowing six hits and one earned run in six innings as Baltimore dominated Detroit, 6-1. The right-hander's good fortunes disappeared in a 13-1 drubbing to the Rangers in his next start, giving up eight earned runs in 3.1 innings. Arrieta has New York's number in two career starts by going 2-0, including a road victory as a $3.50 underdog last September.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:57 AM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

April 14, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 0-7 since April 07, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $750 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Orioles are 0-15 OU since July 04, 2010 on the road and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1500 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 8-0 since May 13, 2010 when Bud Norris starts after having more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $1275.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Padres are 14-0 (+2.9 rpg) since 2007 as a dog when they are off a one-run win as a dog in which they scored three or fewer runs.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Padres are 0-7 since May 03, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.
The Phillies are 6-0 since July 24, 2010 when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost for a net profit of $715.
The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 09, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem and it is the first

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 11:59 AM

Sharks - Kings Outlook

April 13, 2011

No. 2 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Kings

Series Price: San Jose -260, Los Angeles +210

Series Format: San Jose, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
46-30-6 39-43 25-13-3 21-17-3 29-49-4
48-25-9 36-46 25-11-5 23-14-4 42-36-4

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
4/4/11 Los Angeles 1 @ San Jose 6 (-170) OVER 5.5
3/24/11 San Jose 3 @ Los Angeles 4 (-120) in SO OVER 5
1/26/11 San Jose 2 @ Los Angeles 3 (-115) in SO UNDER 5.5
1/1/11 San Jose 1 (+110) @ Los Angeles 0 UNDER 5.5
12/27/10 Los Angeles 4 (+140) @ San Jose 0 UNDER 5.5
11/15/10 Los Angeles 3 @ San Jose 6 (-155) OVER 5.5

Skinny: It may not be the Boston-Montreal series, but this Golden State showdown will not be for the wine and cheese crowd.

San Jose comes into this series as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Over the last three months, they went from being out of the playoffs to its third straight Pacific Division crown. That tends to happen when you close out the year with a 27-6-4 mark.

What the Sharks have done to close out the year is quite impressive when you consider that Joe Thornton had his worst season in Silicon Valley (21-49-70). It wasn’t all that noticeable for San Jose since it’s ranked sixth in the league with 2.92 goals scored per game. That tends to happen when you boast seven different 20-goal scorers, led by Patrick Marleau’s 37 lamp lighters. This scoring depth has knocked the big three of Thornton, Marleau and Dany Heatley from scoring 254 points last season to 207 this year.

The big issue for San Jose is the lack of depth once you get past Dan Boyle. And if you can negate Boyle’s play, you’ll make Antti Niemi’s life quite turbulent. You wouldn’t know it from the fact that the old Blackhawks’ netminder went 35-18-6 with a 2.38 goals against average.

Los Angeles normally wouldn’t be worried by the Sharks’ lack of defensive depth and a good goalie. The present version of the Kings, however, has plenty to be worried about.

The Kings come into this series after scoring just 2.54 goals per game, which ranks in the lower third of the league. And it won’t be any better in this series with the loss of Anze Kopitar (25-48-73) because of an ankle injury suffered on March 26. At least Ryan Smyth has shown up with some goals in the final games of the season, but offense is seriously lacking for Los Angeles.

The only plus side for L.A. is that they have one of the best young goalies in Jonathan Quick. The silver medalist with the United States went 35-22-3 with a 2.24 GAA and a .918 save percentage this season. And Quick has a 6-3-1 record with a GAA of 2.59 in 10 career games against the Sharks.

Gambling Notes: Even though there is a disparity in talent on both sides, the season series split evenly at 3-3. And the Kings won two of the last three games. While that sounds nice, those wins in late January and March were before Kopitar went down for the season. The moment Kopitar was out of the picture, San Jose rolled to a 6-1 win earlier this month.

We’re going to see Los Angeles posted as an underdog for much of this series. When listed as such, the Kings have gone 14-13 straight up and 19-8 on the puck line. That sounds like a great option, but they’re 0-3 SU and 1-2 PL to close out the season. The ‘under’ has been an automatic wager in this spot with a 12-4 record in the last 16 games.

The Sharks have been a very difficult team to beat at the HP Pavilion, closing out the regular season campaign with a 7-0 SU and 6-1 PL.

Outlook: I would Kings a puncher’s chance in this series if they were at full strength. Unfortunately for the Hollywood faithful, they’re horribly banged up. Then you have a Sharks team that made it to the Western Conference Final and it intact for the most part. I have to take San Jose in five games to advance to the conference semifinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:00 PM

Flyers - Sabres Outlook

April 13, 2011

No. 2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 7 Buffalo Sabres

Series Price: Philadelphia -160, Buffalo +130

Series Format: Philadelphia, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
43-29-10 45-37 21-16-4 22-13-6 42-38-2
47-23-12 32-41 22-12-7 25-11-5 32-41-0

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
4/8/11 Philadelphia 3 @ Buffalo 4 (-120) in OT OVER 5.5
3/5/11 Buffalo 5 (+165) @ Philadelphia 3 OVER 5.5
1/11/11 Philadelphia 5 (-120) @ Buffalo 2 OVER 5.5
10/26/10 Buffalo 3 @ Philadelphia 6 (-115) OVER 5.5

Skinny: The Flyers needed a shootout win on the final day of the regular season to make the playoffs in 2010. They parlayed that into winning the Prince of Wales Trophy and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final.

Philadelphia’s road to winning the Eastern Conference is a little bit easier this season, having secured the second seed. However, the Flyers can’t help but feel a little disappointed in finish second to the Capitals after spending a majority of the year in first place.

The Flyers hit a slump at the worst possible time, having lost five-in-a-row before a 7-4 home win against the Isles to finish the regular season. High offensive outputs shouldn’t be strange to anyone as Philly ranked third in the NHL with 3.08 goals per game. That will happen when you have seven players boasting at least 19 goals on the season. Jeff Carter leads the way with 36 lamp lighters, while Danny Briere comes in with 34 for the season.

As strong as the scoring has been, it is mostly on even strength situations for Philadelphia. This is a team that converted just 16.6 percent of the time on the power play. Philly does have a decent penalty kill unit in stuffing 82.7 percent of the opponent’s advantage.

Something else the Flyers has that most other teams wish they could afford is one of the deepest defensive corps in the NHL. It has taken a big hit with Chris Pronger being out with a hand injury.

Goaltending duties will fall squarely on the shoulders of Sergei Bobrovsky. The Russian netminder had a decent season (28-13-8, 2.59), but was lit up for at least four goals in two of his last three starts. And was Bobrovsky was pulled in the season finale after giving up three goals in the first 12 minutes of the game.

Buffalo may be in the spot that the Flyers were in the last postseason, but they have better quality in between the pipes. Ryan Miller went 34-22-8 with a goals against average of 2.59 this season. Those numbers aren’t as good as what Miller had last season (41-18-8, 2.22), but the offense has been a bit better this season.

The Sabres are averaging 2.88 goals per game this year to finish in the Top 10, up from 2.78 goals per game they had in the previous season. Lindy Ruff’s crew doesn’t have a lot of consistent goal scorers, evidenced by the fact that they’ve got four skaters with at least 20 goals. Yet they find a way to push the envelope with the work of defensemen Jordan Leopold and Tyler Myers. Unfortunately for the Sabres, Leopold went down with a broken hand on March 26 and is out for the immediate future.

Ruff will also expect his team to be on the power play a lot with the Flyers averaging just over 13 minutes of penalty time. That will be huge for a Buffalo side that is converting 19.4 percent of the time. And the Sabres are not faring too bad on the advantage at the end of the year with four power play goals in their last 13 chances.

Gambling Notes: It’s been a tale of two seasons in the head-to-head series. Philadelphia rolled to easy wins in October and January against the Sabres. However, Buffalo drew the season series even with wins in the six weeks of the campaign. The ‘over’ was a lock in all four games, usually cashing tickets no later than the beginning of the third period.

The Flyers have not been a great fan of helping bettors cash ticket s with them at the end of the year. We talked about the losing skid they had to finish the regular season already. But we’ve yet to mention that Philly has gone 2-8 straight up and on the puck line in its last 10 matches as a home favorite. Not exactly how you want to be entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Outlook: I know that the Flyers can turn on the charm at the drop of a hat. We saw them fight back from an 0-3 deficit against Boston and give Chicago all it could handle in the Stanley Cup Final. But this slump in the final month of the season make me a tad apprehensive.

Now I realize that the Sabres aren’t world beaters, but they have better special teams play and a much better goaltender. Those two things can equalize any matchup against a deeper team. That gives me ample reason to believe that the Sabres will win this series in six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:01 PM

Bruins - Canadiens Outlook

April 10, 2011

No. 3 Boston Bruins vs. No. 6 Montreal Canadiens

Series Price: Boston -210, Montreal +175

Series Format: Boston, 2-2-1-1-1

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
44-30-8 38-44 24-11-6 20-19-2 26-45-11
46-24-11 40-41 22-13-6 24-11-5 30-41-10

2010-11 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
3/24/11 Montreal 0 @ Boston 7 (-175) OVER 5
3/8/11 Boston 1 @ Montreal 4 (+100) PUSH 5
2/9/11 Montreal 6 @ Boston 8 (-160) OVER 5
1/8/11 Boston 2 @ Montreal 3 (-120) in OT PUSH 5
12/16/10 Boston 3 @ Montreal 4 (-130) OVER 5
11/11/10 Montreal 3 (+125) @ Boston 1 UNDER 5

Skinny: The Stanley Cup Playoffs are arguably the best postseason action of any sport here in North America. When you add in the fact that you have two Original Six teams that hate one another in the opening round, and you’ve got something really special.

Montreal had expectations of making the postseason this year after a magical run to the Eastern Conference Final last season. The only issue for the Canadiens was going to be whether Carey Price could make the faithful forget about Jaroslav Halak, who wound up in St. Louis.

Price is tied with Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo with 38 wins this season and has a 2.35 goals against average in 72 games played. Not many would have guessed he’d be ranking in that spot after seeing Price lose seven of nine to close out December and losing two of eight to finish up February.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Canadiens have been a quality unit on special teams, ranking 7th on the penalty kill (84.4%) and 7th on the advantage (19.7%).

When you’re talking about offense for the Habs, you’re looking at captain Brian Gionta, who leads the team with 29 goals and 17 assists. Big thanks for those scores has to rest on Scott Gomez’s shoulder, helping out on 31 lamp lighters. Meanwhile, P.K. Subban has shined on the power play in his first full year with the big club as he leads with nine goals on the advantage.

Boston comes into this series having plenty of momentum, winning seven of its last 10 games to secure to the Northeast Division crown. Perhaps most impressive of this good run to close out the regular season is that the Bruins have been resting players.

The Bruins have received strong scoring out of Milan Lucic (30-32-62) and Patrice Bergeron (22-35-57). What has really been a breath of fresh air in the B’s lineup is Nathan Horton. The former Panther has exploded onto the playoff scene with 26 goals and 27 assists in his first year in Beantown. All told, Boston is 6th in the NHL with 242 goals scored.

Offense like that will make things a lot easier to do when you’re roaming between the pipes. Tim Thomas can attest to that fact as he went 35-11-9 with a 2.00 GAA. And Thomas’ .938 save percentage bested Dominik Hasek’s .937 run with the Sabres in 1998-99 for the best regular season save percentage ever.

I’d be in the wrong if I don’t tell you that Zdeno Chara will have a huge target on his back in this series. Chara leveled Max Pacioretty in the glass support between the benches back on Feb. 9. Pacioretty is back up and skating now, but won’t be available for this series.

Gambling Notes: To say these two teams know each other would be an understatement. They faced off six times this season with the Habs holding a 4-2-1 mark with the ‘over going 4-1-1. While that is impressive, gamblers should note that the Bruins have won two of the final three games of the head-to-head series.

These clubs also are familiar foes in recent postseasons. Montreal holds the edge there with three first round series wins since the 2002 Playoffs. However, the Bruins did exact some revenge in 2009 with a four-game sweep of the Habs in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal.

Against fellow Northeast Division foes, Montreal went 14-10 SU and 13-11 on the puck line. Boston was just 11-13 SU and 12-12 PL.

Outlook: This is going to be one testy first round…more than we’re used to seeing. Boston has dropped some serious goals on Price and Company in the last two months of the regular season.

The Bruins have reason to believe that home ice will actually make a difference in this series. And you can bet they’ll be thinking about what happened to them in last year’s tourney to the Flyers. I see Claude Julien using that postseason flameout to his advantage in helping the B’s move into the conference semis in five games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-14-2011, 12:16 PM

MLB

Thursday, April 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Colorado - 12:10 PM ET NY Mets -135 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Colorado - 3:10 PM ET Colorado -113 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

Minnesota - 6:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -124 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8.5 500

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +172 500
NY Yankees - Under 10 500

Philadelphia - 7:05 PM ET Washington +141 500
Washington - Over 7 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +100 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Florida - 7:10 PM ET Florida +129 500
Atlanta - Over 8 500

San Diego - 8:05 PM ET Houston -114 500
Houston - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -130 500
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Detroit - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -146 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 10:10 PM ET St. Louis +110 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6.5 500

----------------------------------------------------------
NHL

Thursday, April 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +165 500
Boston - Under 5 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +142 500
Philadelphia - Under 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 10:00 PM ET San Jose -196 500
San Jose - Under 5 500

Announcement

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The Bum's Thursday's MLB-NHL Best Bets !

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