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**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:10 PM

Mavs still gunning for No. 2 seed out west

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (46-35)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (56-25)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -9.5, Total: 186.5

Both the playoff-bound Hornets and Mavericks will complete their regular season Wednesday night in Dallas. The Mavs are in a fight with the Lakers for the number two seed in the East, while the Hornets are tied with the Grizzlies for seventh in the West.

New Orleans is 39-39 ATS this season, which includes a 19-19 record ATS on the road. After averaging 106.0 PPG on 50.3% FG during their three-game winning streak, the Hornets have averaged just 83.5 PPG on 39.6% FG in losing their past two games. Chris Paul has struggled over his past three games, averaging 7.3 PPG and shooting just 33.3 percent from the field. Paul has done well against Dallas this season though, averaging 22.0 PPG while connecting on 58.6 percent of his shots from the field.

Dallas is 43-36 ATS this season, but just 18-20 ATS at home. The Mavs have won their past three games both SU and ATS after losing their previous four games. Shawn Marion has really picked up his game recently, averaging 18.8 PPG while shooting over 60 percent from the field in six April games. Jason Terry has come alive the past two games for Dallas, averaging 19.0 PPG on 57.7% FG. Terry has done very well against New Orleans this season, averaging over 17.0 PPG while making 7-of-14 shots from behind the arc. Dirk Nowitzki has also performed terrific against the Hornets this season, making over 57.0 percent of his shots while averaging 26.7 PPG.

After losing four of five ATS against Western Conference opponents at home, the Mavericks have won their last two. They are also 19-3 SU (14-7-1 ATS) since hosting the New Orleans franchise since 1996, including four straight wins against the Hornets at home. I like Dallas to win again on Wednesday and cover the hefty spread. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to take the Mavs:

Play Against - Any team (NEW ORLEANS) - off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (42-15 since 1996.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (66.7%, +11.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.0, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The Hornets are tied with Milwaukee for the NBA lead with 50 games played Under the total this season, and this five-star trend expects another Under in Wednesday’s regular-season finale.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-4 UNDER (84.0%, +16.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 89.7, OPPONENT 90.6 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:11 PM

Knicks-Celtics conclude regular season on Wednesday

NEW YORK KNICKS (42-39)

at BOSTON CELTICS (55-26)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -2.5, Total: 195

New York and Boston will see each other in the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 1990. This matchup Wednesday night will be more of an exhibition game with both teams likely to rest starters.

The Knicks ended their seven-game win streak with a 103-90 loss at home to Chicago on Tuesday night. The Knicks looked great in the first half, putting up 55 points against the second-best defensive team in the NBA, but the Bulls started the second half on a 26-2 run. The Knicks fought back with a spark off the bench from Bill Walker (4.8 PPG) who scored 18 points, but eventually fell short. New York was without Amar’e Stoudemire (25.4 PPG) and most likely will be with out most of their other starters Wednesday night. The Knicks have the No. 6 seed locked up which leaves no reason to throw their starters out there for a chance of injury. If most starters do not play, look for Toney Douglas (10.6 PPG) to have a big game, in which he will get a boatload of the shots.

Boston rested its big four in Monday’s 95-94 loss to the Wizards. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo will also sit out Wednesday and get a good week’s rest going into the playoffs. Garnett, Pierce and Allen are all in their mid 30’s and rest is exactly what they need. The C’s have the third seed locked up and will host New York to start off the playoffs. Boston had the No. 1 seed for most of the season, but stumbled down the stretch, going 9-11 with big losses to Chicago and Miami. The Celtics hope their playoff experience will give them the edge over less-experienced teams such as the Bulls and Knicks.

New York has been great against the spread on the road this year going 26-13 ATS (66.7%). Against division opponents, the Knicks are 11-4 ATS, and 12-7 ATS when playing on back-to-back days. New York has lost all three games to Boston this year, but by an average of 5.3 points, which resulted in New York going 2-1 ATS. Boston, who is 32-8 SU at home, is only 17-19 ATS. The Celtics also haven’t had much success versus good offensive teams either, going 16-20 ATS against clubs that score 99.0 PPG or more. I like New York and its reserves to play well and win a close one against the second team of the Celtics. These two FoxSheets trends also side with the Knicks.

NEW YORK is 23-6 ATS (79.3%, +16.4 Units) as a road underdog this season. The average score was NEW YORK 105.0, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Home favorites (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (111-70 since 1996.) (61.3%, +34 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:12 PM

Randolph not expected to play vs. Clippers

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-35)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (31-50)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -6, Total: 198

The Grizzlies and Clippers finish their regular seasons on Wednesday night when Memphis makes a visit to the Staples Center. While Memphis will move on to the postseason, the Clippers will be watching at home. The Grizzlies hurt themselves with a loss Tuesday at Portland as they can now only finish as high as seventh. They are tied with the Hornets for the seventh seed in the West, but New Orleans holds the tiebreaker. Grizzlies star big man Zach Randolph is expected to sit this game out to rest an injured elbow and bad knee, and defensive stopper Tony Allen will not play due to swelling in his left knee and ankle.

Memphis is 51-29 ATS (64%) this season, which is the top ATS mark in the NBA. That includes a record of 25-15 ATS (63%) on the road, which ranks third in the league. The Grizzlies have won nine of their past 12 ATS. Memphis has really shot the ball well over its past 14 games, averaging 49.8% from the field and winning 10 of 14 SU over that span. Memphis has dominated teams inside all season, averaging an NBA-best 51.5 PPG in the paint. Randolph will be missed because he has done very well against the Clippers this season, averaging 20.7 PPG on 50.9% FG and 10.7 RPG. The Grizzlies have really clamped down on the Clippers this season, holding them to 82.3 PPG and 42.2 percent shooting.

The Clippers are 37-43 ATS this season and 20-20 ATS at home. Los Angeles struggled offensively in its loss to the Rockets on Saturday, making just 34.7 percent of its shots and scoring just 78 points. After making 67 percent of his shots and averaging 29.0 PPG in his previous two games, Blake Griffin scored just 13 points on 6-of-18 FG against the Rockets. Griffin has also struggled against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 14.0 PPG while committing more turnovers (12) than he has assists (eight).

While the Clippers delivered a big blow to the Grizzlies with a one-point win on April 5 in Memphis, they have not played well since. And you never know what a team who has nothing to play for in their final game of a bad season will give you. The Grizzlies still have the No. 7 seed in their sights, and I’m taking Memphis to both cover and win and Wednesday. The FoxSheets show two trends to support this pick:

MEMPHIS is 20-8 ATS (71.4%, +11.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.5, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 2*).

L.A. CLIPPERS are 16-33 ATS (32.7%, -20.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was L.A. CLIPPERS 96.4, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:12 PM

Giants aim for 2nd straight win over rival Dodgers

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (6-5)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (5-6)

First pitch: Wednesday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -135, Los Angeles +125

Dodgers at Giants. Two teams meeting for the sixth time in the first 12 games of the season. For the sake of both organizations, everyone is praying that the “rivalry” part of this matchup stays strictly on the field for the remainder of the season. The Dodgers took two of three from the World Series champs to start the season, and the Giants are looking to return the favor with a victory on Wednesday after splitting the first two games of the series. San Francisco is coming off a come-from-behind 5-4 victory Tuesday evening in a game that it trailed 3-0, despite starting its ace Tim Lincecum. After a Marcus Thames home run tied the game in the top of the seventh, the Giants got a leadoff triple from reserve centerfielder Aaron Rowand in the bottom half of the frame, and watched him score the go-ahead run on a wild pitch. Brian Wilson struck out the side in the ninth for his first save in two chances. Wednesday will feature two of the league’s more crafty left-handers when Jonathan Sanchez battles Ted Lilly.

Lilly is winless so far this season and is hoping that Wednesday’s start goes much better than his initial outing versus the Giants when he allowed four runs and six hits over 4.2 innings, as the Dodgers were pounded by the Giants 10-0. In his most recent outing Friday against the Padres, Lilly lasted just 4.1 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits in a no-decision. Lilly is 3-3 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in his career against the Giants and his team's record is 3-5 in these eight starts. In his past three outings versus San Francisco, Lilly has two losses and a no-decision, allowing 12 runs and 16 hits in 15 innings of work. Lilly has displayed superb control in those starts, striking out 13 and walking just three. With the Dodgers in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories, Don Mattingly’s team will be depending on Lilly to keep his L.A. in the game while the bats continue their search for some pop. Centerfielder Matt Kemp seems to have found his pop. Kemp leads the squad with 17 hits and is batting .472 to start the season. Andre Ethier leads the team with only seven RBI.

The Dodgers will have to deal with southpaw Jonathan Sanchez who is looking for his first win of the season. Sanchez is only 2-6 in 12 career starts against the Dodgers with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.40. His team's record is 4-8 in these games. Sanchez came out on the short end of a 4-3 decision on April 1 against the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. He allowed four runs (two were unearned) on seven hits over 5.2 innings, striking out eight. In his most recent start, a no-decision against St. Louis, Sanchez went five innings, allowing just one run on four hits. Sanchez has fanned 15 batters so far this year, while walking just five. He hopes to hold the Dodgers’ inconsistent offense in check, while his squad can generate some runs with the help of a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval (.368 BA) a power-happy Pat Burrell (4 HR, ties him for the NL lead) and second-year catcher Buster Posey (team-leading 7 RBI). I expect Sanchez to turn in a quality outing, and for San Francisco to win again. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to pick the Giants, including a four-star special.

Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season. (69-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +40.4 units. Rating = 4*).

TED LILLY is 22-35 (38.6%, -26.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was LILLY 3.5, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:13 PM

Marlins try to end 6-game losing skid in Atlanta

FLORIDA MARLINS (5-5)

at ATLANTA BRAVES (5-6)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -130, Florida +120

A pair of aces take the mound when Josh Johnson and the Marlins take on Tim Hudson and the Braves in the second of a three-game set Wednesday in Atlanta. The Braves won Tuesday’s series opener 5-0 behind Tommy Hanson’s seven shutout innings.

Johnson has had two strong outings to start the season. He beat the Mets by allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings on April 1 and pitched even better in a no-decision versus Washington on Thursday (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K). Johnson has pitched well in the past against Atlanta with a 2.60 ERA in 14 career starts, but is only 4-3 in those starts. In three outings versus the Braves in 2010, he only allowed three runs and had 28 strikeouts in 18 innings, but the Marlins lost all three games. In Johnson’s last four starts in Atlanta, he has a 1.04 ERA with 29 K in 26 IP, but only one win to show for it.

Florida’s bats have been ice-cold lately, with 17 straight scoreless innings. The Marlins are hitting just .211 with runners in scoring position this year, including 1-for-13 over the past two games. All-Star SS Hanley Ramirez returned from a leg contusion injury on Tuesday and went 0-for-4, dropping his season batting average to .182. But Ramirez has batted .379 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in his past 17 meetings with Atlanta.

Hudson has loved facing Florida in his career, going 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 19 starts. Hudson’s team is 14-5 (.737) in these outings. Last year, Hudson faced Florida four times, and in the three meetings at Turner Field, he allowed just five runs in 21 innings (2.14 ERA), while racking up 24 K and only 6 BB. In two starts this season, Hudson has been excellent. He allowed just one run in seven innings in an 11-2 win at Washington April 3, and then gave up only two earned runs in 7.2 innings in Friday’s 6-3 win over Philadelphia. In Hudson’s past 18 home starts, he is 12-4 with a 2.45 ERA.

Unlike Florida, Atlanta has been great in the clutch with an NL-best .350 average with runners in scoring position. But the Braves have only outscored four other major-league teams this year because they are batting .211 in all other scenarios, including .225 with the bases empty. Jason Heyward homered on Tuesday and has three of the team’s 8 HR this year. Chipper Jones is batting .308 and leads the team with 8 RBI. He is also hitting .300 with a .432 OBP in his career versus Josh Johnson.

Atlanta is 8-2 in its past 10 home meetings with Florida, including six straight victories by a combined score of 34-13. I think the Braves will prevail again on Wednesday in a pitchers’ duel. This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also like Atlanta to win.

TIM HUDSON is 42-8 (84.0%, +29.7 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was HUDSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams (ATLANTA) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a team on-base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL). (32-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +25 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:14 PM

Halladay looks to retain dominance over Nationals

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (7-2)

at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (4-5)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -180, Washington +170

You have to give the Washington Nationals credit. They figured out pretty quickly how to kick off a series against the Philadelphia Phillies and their big four quartet of pitchers. Solution? Beat up on the number five starter, which is exactly what they did Tuesday night to Joe Blanton. The Nats got to Blanton for seven hits and five runs over six innings, jumping out to a 5-1 lead and holding off a late Phils rally to hold on for the 7-4 victory. Jason Werth especially loved running into his old teammates. In his first game against his former team the new Washington right fielder went 2-for-3 with a solo homer in the fifth. Starter Livan Hernandez did what he does best, change speeds, scatter hits, and keep veteran hitters off balance as he gave up seven hits and one run over 6.2 innings. With the first game of the series under their belt, the Nationals now must prepare to go up, way up, in weight class Wednesday, when they take on two-time Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, a man who beat Washington all three times he faced them last season.

Halladay is 8-1 when starting against Washington with an ERA of 1.92 and a WHIP of 0.94. His team's record is 10-1 in these starts. There can be little shame in failing to rattle Halladay for opposing teams, especially those in the NL East. Since coming to the Phils, he is 15-1 against NL East opponents. At 1-0 after two starts this season, Halladay has been human, which means he’s been slightly hittable as well. Emphasis on the word slightly. The Astros got to him for five hits over six innings and a run in the season opener, and the Mets got to him for six hits over seven innings, but no runs. Halladay is not helping out the competition with his control. He has 13 strikeouts so far this season, and just one walk in 13 innings pitched. Last season he walked 30 batters in 250.2 innings. In his last start Thursday against the Mets, Halladay was in some early trouble, but worked out of it by getting some key strikeouts en route to pitching seven innings of shutout baseball. In 23 innings against Washington last season, the Nationals scored just one run against him, while totaling 16 hits and 20 strikeouts. Even if the Nationals can figure out Halladay when he is on the mound, they will also have to figure out the Phillies offense. First baseman Ryan Howard is among the league leaders in HR and RBI. Shane Victorino (.366) is 13-for-28 over the past six games and Placido Polanco leads the team with 15 hits. He also has nine RBI.

Washington will counter on the mound with left-hander John Lannan, who has not exactly been Cy Young-like against Philadelphia. He is 0-8 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 11 career starts versus the Phillies, and his team's record is 1-10 in these outings. He started three times against the Phils last season and never lasted more than 5.2 innings. In 14.1 innings, Lannan allowed 21 hits and 11 runs while striking out six and walking five. He was able to notch a win this season over the Braves on April 2, but only lasted five innings. In his last start Thursday versus the Marlins he again lasted just five innings, allowing three runs on seven hits. The Nats will be looking for quality and quantity in the innings that Lannan provides Wednesday night, as the margin for error against Halladay will be slim at best. Washington will be playing without third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who was placed on the 15-day DL Tuesday with an abdominal strain.

In their last two series against divisional opponents, New York and Atlanta, the Phillies lost the opening game of the series only to come back and win the final two contests to take the series. Look for Halladay to get his Philadelphia team back on track against a Washington club that he has dominated during his career. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to pick the heavily-favored Phillies.

ROY HALLADAY is 92-35 (72.4%, +32.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was HALLADAY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*).

PHILADELPHIA is 76-35 (68.5%, +29.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:16 PM

Wednesday NBA Trends

April 13, 2011

The NBA regular season concludes this evening, although this is annually the strangest night of the pro hoops campaign. Several teams will be resting regulars as they prepare for playoff action, so many final-night games often take on the look of a preseason contest. Proceed carefully this evening and make sure to check out personnel situations as needed. Following are some angles and trends, irrespective of potential personnel changes, for Wednesday night action...

New York at Boston... Celtics have won first three meetings, although they covered only one of those. The Knicks had won seven straight, and covered five in a row, prior to Tuesday’s loss vs. the Bulls. Meanwhile, Boston has dropped 7 of its last 12, and 11 of its last 20 games, straight up, and almost assuredly rests several starters tonight. New York also enters TD Garden “under” in its last four games.

Atlanta at Charlotte... Note that the road team has covered the first three meetings this season. The Hawks, however, have been skidding lately, and enter tonight having lost five in a row straight up and failing to cover in four straight. Charlotte hasn’t done much better lately, as the Bobcats had dropped six in a row prior to Monday’s win over the Nets. Atlanta also “under” 7-2 in its last nine games.

Miami at Toronto... Chris Bosh returns to his old haunt at Air Canada Centre, but Miami HC Erik Spoelstra likely to rest him and other key starters such as D-Wade and LeBron this evening. Heat has won the three previous meetings this season but covered only one of those. Raptors might be shorthanded as well, though due to injury problems that have reduced their scoring prowess lately (Toronto hasn’t cracked 100-point barrier in last four games). Raptors have nonetheless covered their last three games, also going under” in each of those.

Detroit at Philadelphia... Sixers struggling vs. the line lately, dropping their last 5 and 8 of their last 11 vs. line, partly coinciding with absence of sparkplug Lou Williams. Philly also “under” five in a row entering tonight, although visiting Pistons “over” in 7 of their last 8.

Indiana at Orlando... Both locked into respective playoff seeds in East (Pacers 8th, Magic 4th). Magic has covered its last three outings after dropping 14 of its previous 16 vs. the number. Meanwhile, Pacers have covered just 4 of their last 12 on road. Orlando also “under” 20-9-2 its last 31 since early February.

New Jersey at Chicago... East top seed Bulls likely to rest starters and sub liberally tonight, although Nets effectively in a similar predicament with several starters out due to injury. New Jersey has lost 14 of its last 16 SU and to no surprise has also been dropping spread decisions lately (1-6 last 7). Bulls enter having won 8 in a row but have covered only 5 of their last 11. Chicago also just 7-8 as double-digit United Center chalk this season.

Washington at Cleveland... Washington has won last two meetings, including its first road win of the season on Feb. 13. Wizards closing the season with their best stretch of the campaign, winning and covering 5 of their last 7 and 6 of their last 9. Cavs also doing better as the season winds down (3-2 SU and 4-1 vs. line last five entering tonight). Note Cleveland “under” 13-4 their last 17, although they’re “over” in their last two meetings vs. Washington.

Milwaukee at Oklahoma City... Ok City enters tonight with a chance to move as high as the 3rd seed in the West with a win and a loss by Dallas vs. New Orleans, although Thunder cannot move as high as the 2nd seed. Ok City closing with a rush, winning its last 5 and 19 of its last 23 overall, and Thunder 12-6-1 its last 19 vs. the number. Bucks aren’t going to the playoffs and have lost pointspread momentum since their elimination, dropping their last three vs. the number entering the Ford Center tonight.

Houston at Minnesota... Rockets had won 13 straight in series prior to a Feb. 8 defeat vs. T-wolves at Toyota Center. Still, note Houston’s three straight covers at Minneapolis since last season, and 6-3 road chalk mark this campaign. On other hand, Minnesota only 9-17 in Target Center dog role this season, and T-wolves haven’t won in over a month (last win march 11vs. Jazz; 0-14 SU since). Houston also “under” its last 4 and 6 of its last 8 as the season concludes.

New Orleans at Dallas... Dallas could still finish anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th seed in the West depending upon tonight’s results. Meanwhile, New Orleans will be the West’s 8th seed unless it wins this one and Memphis loses to the Clippers, in which case it will be 7th in the West playoff queue. Close meetings this season, with the three previous encounters all decided by three or fewer, with the underdog side covering in each. Mavs, however, closing with a bit of a rush with wins and covers in their last three, while Hornets have lost and failed to cover their last two.

Denver at Utah... Nuggets are locked into the 4th seed in the West, but bring a 21-4 spread mark their last 25 games into Salt Lake City. Utah has gone in the opposite direction the past few months, although Jazz displaying a bit more bite in the last week with covers in three of its last four. Utah also “under” 9-2 in its last 11 outings.

Memphis at LA Clippers... Grizzlies sew up the 7th seed in the West playoffs with a win; a loss coupled with a New Orleans win over Dallas drops Memphis to the 8th slot. Grizzlies (at Portland last night) usually good in second nights of back-to-back scenario, covering 16 of 20 such chances this season. Memphis enters Staples Center having covered 18 of its last 26 games, while Clips have dropped 10 of their last 14 vs. the number (although they did score an 82-81 upset win at FedEx Forum last Tuesday). Grizzlies also “under” 8 of their last 12.

Portland at Golden State... Portland secured into the 6th playoff slot in the West regardless of tonight’s result. Blazers have been closing with a rush, winning and covering 5 of their last 6 and 15 of their last 21 entering Oakland tonight. Note that Warriors have covered all three meetings this season, and five straight vs. Blazers extending into last season. Although Golden State has lost some of its edge with G Monta Ellis’ injury, and has been thrashed in its last two outings prior to this evening at Oracle Arena.

San Antonio at Phoenix... Spurs rested many of their regulars last night vs. Lakers, although Gregg Popovich indicated some of those are likely to participate tonight with S.A. still battling Chicago for top seed throughout playoffs (right now they are tied in the standings; if both end that way a random draw determines home court edge between the two). Meanwhile, Phoenix closing the season with a 3-8 spread run entering tonight. Spurs have won first three (covering two of those) vs. Suns this season, and S.A. also on a surprising 10-1 “over” run prior to this evening at US Airways Center.

LA Lakers at Sacramento... Lakers were all-out to win last night vs. Spurs and need to win this one to be assured of second seed in West playoffs (LA could fall to the third seed if it loses tonight and Dallas beats New Orleans). How much Phil Jackson risks his starters after Andrew Bynum’s injury last night remains to be seen, and note recent pointspread slide for Lake Show entering tonight (LA had dropped five in a row SU and vs. line prior to last night, and late Laker money was a loser on Tuesday vs. S.A.). This is also likely to be the Kings’ last game in Sacramento, with all signs pointing toward a move to Anaheim, so it could be an emotional night in Sacto. Kings, however, have fared better vs. line on the road (9-3-1 vs. points last 13) than at Power Balance Pavilion (where it is just 4-6 vs. line its last 10).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:18 PM

NBA Playoff Primer

April 13, 2011

It’s never too early or late to prepare for the playoffs. Like preparing for a marathon, it’s best to put ourselves into the best possible condition we can as we make a season ending dash for the cash.

With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say…

NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75% of time (37-107) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

Worse, they are 7-32 SU and 13-23-3 ATS in the post-season with a losing record in opening round games, including 5-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 50-29-2 ATS (4-1 last season), a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 37-19-2 ATS, including 25-8-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 3 or higher seed.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

DOUBLE DIGIT DOGMA

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 27-14-1 ATS in this role, including 17-6 ATS versus a non-division foe.

These same guys are also 9-1 ATS off a playoff loss of 16 or fewer points.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 5-25 SU and 7-23 ATS away from home, including 2-11 SU and ATS in lid-lifters. They are also 3-18 ATS as dogs versus .635 or greater opposition when on their way to the canvas.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2011 NBA playoffs. I’ll be back soon with additional insight on Round Two of the post-season.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:19 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

April 13, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 11-0 since April 22, 2010 when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1205.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Astros are 0-11 OU since April 06, 2007 when Wandy Rodriguez starts at home in April for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.
STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Twins are 0-7 since July 28, 2006 when Francisco Liriano starts as a favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1055 when playing against.
MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mariners are 0-14 (-4.1 rpg) since 2009 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start.
TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Athletics are 0-9 since May 30, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $900 when playing against.
The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 04, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $700.
The Nationals are 0-7 since May 05, 2010 when they are off a game in which they scored in at least five separate innings for a net profit of $725 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:24 PM

Time to Panic?

April 12, 2011

10-Game Panic: American League
Several teams that were expected to be playoff contenders have had slow starts. While the first 10 games can be deemed meaningless with a great run in the next 10 games, historically few teams that start off really slowly actually emerge as quality playoff teams. It is too early to make any firm assessments for any team but there are some warning signs and the panic may be warranted with a handful of American League teams.

Tampa Bay Rays (2-8)

With a 2-8 start the Rays are in trouble of building too big of a hole to climb out of. Tampa Bay led the American League in wins last season and while many expected a step back this season no one imagined a fall back to the depths of the division, reminiscent of the early years of the franchise. Offense has been the big problem with just 36 runs scored in ten games. That figure is greatly skewed however as 25 of those runs came in two games, meaning that in the other eight games the Rays posted a grand total of eleven runs. Tampa is yet to be shutout this season but the Rays have scored just one run in six different games. The biggest concern entering the season seemed to be rebuilding the bullpen but so far the pitching staff has done its job with a 3.77 ERA for the bullpen. David Price has not had a great start to the season but he should be fine and Jeremy Hellickson looks like he could be the solid starter and the rookie of the year candidate that most expected. Wade Davis has pitched better than his 0-2 record indicates and James Shields looks poised for a rebound season. Jeff Niemann has struggled through two starts but he has been steady for the Rays the last two seasons and Andy Sonnanstine is waiting in the bullpen if needed. The starting pitching on this team should be very good and among the better units in the AL. The schedule is difficult for the rest of the month with seven games against the Twins, four games with the White Sox as well as a trip to Toronto but May could be the month that the Rays climb back into the picture. With the biggest name player Manny Ramirez already jumping off the ship the Rays are not a team loaded with high priced free agents that is likely to dump salary so if this early stretch of offensive futility can be withstood the Rays can still be a player in the American League playoff race and a team that often catches favorable underdog value. Panic Level: 2 of 5

Boston Red Sox (2-8)

In 1991 the Minnesota Twins started the season 2-9 but went on to win the World Series. That has to be the type of thinking for the Red Sox at this point as at 2-8 this has certainly been the most disappointing team in baseball considering the Red Sox were a clear World Series favorite in the American League. Boston’s offense will improve with the incredible talent in the lineup and with 3.8 runs scored per game offense has not been the biggest problem even with slow starts from Carl Crawford and several other regulars in the lineup. The big concern for Boston has been on the mound with a horrendous bullpen featuring a 7.36 ERA and very marginal starting pitching. Jon Lester will be fine and he should be a solid top of the rotation pitcher for the Red Sox but Clay Buchholz has left some questions with some struggles this spring and two very poor outings to open the year. The biggest concerns have to be with the three veterans in the rotation however. Josh Beckett has pitched well so far this season but he has been injury prone and he has the worst year of his career last season. Daisuke Matsuzaka has not been a reliable pitcher for the Red Sox since 2008 and his health has been a question mark as well. Last year’s big acquisition John Lackey had a disappointing season last year and is off to a horrible start in 2011 and he simply may be a bad fit for the Red Sox and Fenway Park or he may not have enough left in the tank. It is a rotation that looks good on paper with plenty of name recognition but in reality it is a fragile group that may turn what used to be a great bullpen into an overworked unit and turn the Red Sox into a pretty average team even if the offense gets going. Boston has a favorable schedule in the rest of April and early May so this could be a team that gets back to .500 fairly quickly but there may be real issues with this team that become even further exposed in a very tough June schedule. Panic Level: 3 of 5

Minnesota Twins (3-6)

The Twins are never a team to count out as they generally seem to overachieve and they have been able to overcome slow starts in several of the past few years as well. At 3-6 the Twins are staring up at both the Indians and the Royals on top of the AL Central standings and Minnesota has scored the fewest runs of any team in baseball with just 24. Minnesota has only scored more than three runs twice in nine games and while the pitching staff has kept the team in most games, the pitching is not good enough to carry the team. Francisco Liriano has ace stuff but he has been wild in two starts and will never be the dominant force he was when he broke into the league. Carl Pavano will be solid but unspectacular and Nick Blackburn looks poised for a strong rebound season. Scott Baker and Brian Duensing remain question marks and the safety valve Kevin Slowey has already hit the DL. Minnesota’s bullpen has been good in the early going but is likely not as deep as last year’s unit but none of that will matter unless the Twins start improving on an ugly .213 team average. The big question mark for the offense was the return of Justin Morneau, but he has had a respectable start to the year with eight hits even if the home run power has not been on display. Joe Mauer will certainly hit better than .233 for the season but coming off knee surgery may leave some lingering issues and a concern that was not expected has been how easily base runners have stolen on Mauer in the early going. The middle infield look like it will be a black hole of production as Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka struggled and then broke his leg after six games and Alexi Casilla and a rotation of utility players have not hit so far this year. Denard Span and Danny Valencia have been encouraging at the plate in the early going but for the Twins to be successful right-handers Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer need to help balance out a lefty-heavy lineup and both have had very slow starts. Overall the Twins look like they are in trouble this season, the offense will be better than the first two weeks has shown but probably not as good as last season and with the division looking much tougher this year the Twins do not have enough pitching to emerge as the division champions again. Panic Level: 3 of 5

Detroit Tigers (3-7)

Many saw the Tigers as the possible dark horse in the American League but with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen already injured the offense is severely lacking in capable bats. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez can carry some of the load but Detroit has struggled to score runs so far this season. Austin Jackson had a promising rookie season but he has struck out 14 times while walking just three times and barely topping .200 in the lead off spot. Will Rhymes does not appear to be taking advantage of his first big chance in a starting role. Brennan Boesch showed a lot of promise this spring and Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge are proven veterans but the rest of the division appears to have a step on the Tigers at the plate. Justin Verlander is going to have to carry the pitching staff this year but he has not been overly sharp so far and young starters Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have not had promising starts to the season. Brad Penny appears to be an experiment that may not make it through the season and moving Phil Coke to a starting role has not paid off yet and is a big risk considering some question marks that exist in the bullpen. Detroit has allowed 56 runs in the first ten games of the season, the most in the AL Central and second most in the entire AL so the pitching and defense need to improve significantly for this team to get back in contention. Detroit had to open the season in New York against the Yankees but the real discouragement came from losing back-to-back series against the Orioles and Royals. April’s schedule was expected to be one of the easiest months for Detroit and a hot start could have propelled this team into the division race but with a brutal May looming, featuring games with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Twins, the Tigers may be in big trouble if they can’t get out of April with a winning record. Jim Leyland may not be safe and a few key players could get put on the trading block if this team does look like it can compete so an implosion is very possible in the Motor City. Panic Level: 4 of 5

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:26 PM

Baseball Betting Notes

April 11, 2011

Check the Bullpen

When handicapping baseball games most of us take a quick look at the current streaks of teams, look at the starting pitchers chart, but rarely do we ever sit down and take a hard look at what a team’s bullpen is doing. Part of that is because it’s not a stat line that is quickly offered or readily found as a statistic online. This is something that has to be accounted for as a mental note and written down next to every team's daily adjusted rating.

With starting pitchers still on a short leash of 100 pitches regardless of how well they‘re doing, the bullpen becomes almost as important as the starter. Even in the heart of the regular season, how fun is it to lay a big price on Tim Lincecum only to find yourself with a wager on the Giants bullpen, who for some reason always seem to blow it for him. I found my self being talked into a few plays last week just because of a terrible bullpen situation by the opposing team and in each case was fortunate to cash.

Last Friday the Tampa Bay Rays were getting +145 against the White Sox. Through their first six games, the Rays had only scored eight runs and had scored only one run in five of those losses. It’s never a good strategy to bet a streak to stop, but the line seemed to be a little inflated due to the Rays’ hitting woes. There was value in a game that I had personally made Chicago a -140, but I couldn’t pull the trigger until I started looking at the White Sox bullpen numbers from their first six games.

The White Sox’s pen had allowed 16 runs and was overworked. Their closer, Matt Thornton, had already had his confidence shattered a couple times and was coming in as the worst kind of closer, one that’s scared.

So I had thrown all conventional wisdom regarding poor hitting teams on a losing streak out the window and made the wager on the Rays with the Sox bullpen being the deciding factor. Whether I got lucky or just tapped into an area I had not given much attention to in the past, the move paid off as the Rays won their first game of the year 9-7. Not only was it the first lead of the season for the Rays, but the five runs in the ninth inning all came off of Thornton.

Thus far we have four teams that have matched the White Sox futility in not being able to close out games. The Angels, Cubs and Cardinals haven’t given up as many runs as the White Sox, but they have all blown three save opportunities. In St. Louis, Ryan Franklin can’t get anything positive going with his three blown saves and four runs allowed in 3.2 innings and he’s on the verge of being replaced by 40-year old journeyman Miguel Batista.

Cards Struggling

Beyond all of Franklin’s troubles, the Cardinals are having trouble everywhere else as they currently are 28th in runs scored (27) and slugging percentage (.306). Most of that can be attributed to Matt Holliday being out of the lineup and Albert Pujols struggling in part because of it. But still, it’s pretty bad when pitcher Jake Westbrook has a higher batting average (.250) than your star slugger (.143) after nine games. Pujols has only five hits in nine games with only four RBIs. The Cardinals only have one player, Colby Rasmus, who has played at least three games that is batting over .300 which has contributed to their 3-6 record. They are likely to bounce back soon, but I’ll be taking long hard looks at betting against them in every game for the next week other than when Jaime Garcia is pitching.

Pitchers on the Rise

The days of getting plus money on Baltmore’s Zach Britton, Toronto’s Kyle Drabek and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin may be gone soon unless they face an ace, but you still have to ride them for a while as their team has won both games they have started this season. All three having been dazzling, but the standout is Britton who shut down the red hot Rangers bats Saturday. He’s got a killer sinker that is worth riding to the bet window every game he pitches.

Beckett Sooths the Nation

Between seven losses, only Dustin Pedroia hitting and just one solid start from their pitching staff, the Red Sox Nation was in a bit of a panic mode heading into Josh Beckett’s Sunday night start against the Yankees. After eight strong shutout innings, Beckett -- perhaps the biggest question mark of the 2011 season, showed that he is capable of being a dominant pitcher again. Things should get better for prized free-agent pickup Carl Crawford, who has struggled miserably at the plate, as he faces his old team this week.

Hughes in Trouble

In two starts this year, Yankees starting pitcher Phil Hughes has allowed 11 earned runs in six innings of work. The 18-game winner from last year didn’t have a great spring and his fastball’s velocity is off by three miles per hour from last season, which has essentially allowed opposing hitters to tee off on him. I know it’s tough to bet against the powerful lineup of the Yankees, but until Hughes shows he’s better, he’s a great one to bet against.

The one positive for the Yankees if Hughes doesn’t return back to normalcy is that former Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon looks close to being like his old self coming out of the pen. In Friday’s loss to Boston, Colon was throwing some heat in the mid-90’s that Boston had trouble with.

Surprise Teams Paying Well

I know it’s early and not likely to last much longer, but I still can’t help feeling excited for what is going on in Cleveland, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Their all teams playing against a stacked deck of what today’s baseball is and are exceeding their abilities. Each one of these teams have shown they can hit the ball well which will give them a fighting chance all season, but the real surprise has been their pitching. How long will it last and how long should we ride the wave?

I feel good about taking Josh Tomlin in Cleveland, but I guess I can’t get enough nerve to even jump on the wave until seeing a few more weeks of play. I’ve bet Pittsburgh a couple of times this year, but there’s a stigma that is attached to these teams that kind of keeps me from playing them regularly, opting to play good teams with value. So while I'll tip-toe around the idea of betting on or against them, I'll just root for them all separately as just a regular baseball fan with little or no action.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-13-2011, 07:29 PM

NHL Playoff Predictions

April 13, 2011

Fact: In last season’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, three of the four lower seeds, including the 7th and 8th seeds, won first-round series in the Eastern Conference. Eventually, the 7th and 8th-seeded teams ended up meeting for the Eastern Conference finals. Comparatively speaking, imagine the Sixers and Pacers meeting in the East finals in the upcoming NBA Playoffs?

Fact: In 2006, every lower-seeded team won first-round Stanley Cup action in the Western Conference playoffs. The eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers proceeded to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, where they took eventual winner Carolina to seven games.

Fact: Almost anything can happen when the Stanley Cup is on the line.

Indeed, if there’s one difference between NHL postseason action and other major sports, it’s that’s upsets are a lot more prevalent en route to the Stanley Cup. Home-ice advantage in the NHL is rarely as pronounced as the home edge in other sports, in particular the NBA. In the NHL, the differences between the first and eighth-seeded playoff teams is often not that great. Which is why top seeds often approach their opening series with a lot more trepidation than their counterparts in the NBA, where, this season at least, it’s doubtful that even the Pacers themselves believe they have a chance to knock off the East top seed Bulls.

They drop the puck Wednesday night at five rinks across the NHL as the road to the Stanley Cup begins. Following is a brief forecast of first-round action, along with predicted series results; conference seeds included.

Eastern Conference

NY Rangers (8) vs. Washington (1)...The Caps think they are built for a deeper playoff run than a year ago when stunned by the 8th-seeded Canadiens in the first round. Washington applied the brakes ever so slightly to its offense this season while concentrating more on defensive duties, improving from 16th (2.77 GAA) to 4th (2.33 GAA) in goals allowed this season. That slowed Alex Ovechkin, who posted career lows in goals (32) and points (685), although he still ranked seventh in the scoring race.

The Rangers might make this one interesting simply because of brilliant GK Henrik Lundqvist, who is capable of carrying New York by himself. But the Rangers were dealt a bad blow when flying winger Ryan Callahan suffered a broken ankle, and Marian Gaborik has been inconsistent. Lundqvist is capable of stealing a game or two for the Rangers in this series but the absence of Callahan and other injuries on the roster make it unlikely the Rangers pull off what the Canadiens did to the Caps a year ago. Prediction: Caps in Six

Buffalo (7) vs. Philadelphia (2)...Upset alert! The Sabres closed the season in a rush, losing just one of their last twelve games, and were 16-4-4 in their last 24 games, including a pair of wins over the Flyers. Although Buffalo can’t skate with the Flyers, the Sabres do have a potential difference-maker in goal with Ryan Miller...an edge that gives Buffalo a real chance.

Meanwhile, the Flyers are going to be relying upon a rookie GK, Sergei Bobrovsky, and were not playing well down the stretch after ace defender Chris Pronger went down with a hand/wrist injury. Pronger is expected back sometime in this series, but his effectiveness will be in question. With three potent scoring lines, Philly can probably overcome Pronger’s absence unless Miller completely shuts the gate in front of the Buffalo goal. Which is entirely possible. Prediction: Sabres in Seven

Montreal (6) vs. Boston (3)...The Canadiens and Bruins already hated each other enough. Then came the violent hit placed by Boston defenseman Zdeno Chara on Habs forward Max Pacioretty on March 8 at the Bell Centre. Add another element to the rivalry.

For the Bruins, this series is all about redemption after blowing a 3-0 series lead, not to mention a 3-0 lead in the seventh game, in the first round against the Flyers last season. With GK Tim Thomas in perhaps the best form of his career after posting a league-record .938 save percentage this season. The Canadiens are not likely to go quietly, especially with GK Carey Price proving no drop-off from last year’s playoff hero Jaroslav Halak, but with Thomas on the other end there is no edge for Montreal in goal. The Bruins are a little bigger and a little deeper, so they should advance, although if Mike Cammalleri and P.K. Subban repeat their playoff performances of a year ago, this one could go the distance. Prediction: Bruins in Seven

Tampa Bay (5) vs. Pittsburgh (4)...The Penguins made it back to the postseason with Sidney Crosby shelved for the past couple of months after a concussion, and Evgeni Malkin out with a knee injury since February. Malkin remains out and Crosby is doubtful to return for this series vs. the Lightning.

Interestingly, after several years of holding the firepower advantage over playoff foes, the edge the Penguins own this season might be in goal with Marc-Andre Fleury, who has dealt with Stanley Cup pressure before. So has opposite number Dwayne Roloson, Tampa Bay’s 41-year-old netminder who was in goal for Edmonton’s aforementioned surprise run to the 2006 Cup final. The combination of Roloson and a leaky defense provides the Penguins with a real chance, but Tampa Bay’s high-octane attack features plenty of big-time scoring options with Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Simon Gagne. Plus, ten different Lightning players scored 10 goals or more. If firepower is to decide this series, it’s advantage Tampa Bay. Prediction: Lightning in Six

Western Conference

Chicago (8) vs. Vancouver (1)...The Blackhawks have been the playoff barrier for the Canucks the past two seasons, but dynamics are quite different this time around. Chicago backed into the playoffs on the final day and is not the same team it was a year ago, losing ten members from last year’s Stanley Cup winners including playoff heroes Dustin Byfuglien and GK Antti Niemi. The Blackhawks still have some game-changers in Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews but this was a team that rode its great depth to the Cup last spring. This season, salary cap issues have stripped the club of that advantage.

Also unlike the past two years, Vancouver comes into the series as the clear favorite after a spectacular regular season and Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s highest point team. The loss of ace defenseman Manny Malhotra could be felt sometime in the playoffs, and Roberto Luongo has blown hot and cold in past postseasons, but with the Sedin brothers and a pair of potent scoring lines, the Canucks have chilling power. They won’t blow this one to Chicago. Prediction: Canucks in Five

Los Angeles (7) vs. San Jose (2)...Any real chance that the Kings have of making some noise in the postseason probably went out the window when top scorer Anze Kopitar went down with an ankle injury. Kopitar is definitely out, and we’ll see about second -leading scorer Justin Williams, who is questionable with shoulder problems. The team did not find adequate scoring cover in the absence of either down the stretch, which spells big trouble unless Jonathan Quick delivers some stellar performances in goal.

The Sharks started their season quite slowly but enter the postseason feared as usual. Adding GK Antti Niemi from the Blackhawks’ Cup winner from a year ago is a plus, but they key will likely be the Joe Thornton line producing better than it did in last year’s postseason, when the Sharks couldn’t score more than 2 goals in any games of the West finals vs. Chicago. San Jose has been a historic playoff underachiever but should not be derailed at this stage by a Kings team that seems to sorely miss its top scorer Kopitar. Prediction: Sharks in Five

Phoenix (6) vs. Detroit (3)...Even when the Coyotes pop up in discussions in the Valley of the Sun, it’s usually about when and where the team might relocate (back to Winnipeg, perhaps?). And when the subject turns to GK Ilya Bryzgalov, the talk is usually about where the free-agent-to-be will end up next season. Moreover, there will likely be more Detroit fans in attendance for the games at Glendale’s Jobing.com Arena.

Bryzgalov, however, enjoyed a stellar campaign and could keep Phoenix very much in this series with the Red Wings like a year ago when Detroit was forced to seven games. The Wings ranked second in scoring this season with 261 goals, but were a bit too leaky on the other end, ranking 23rd in goals against (2.89), so the pressure is on GK Jimmy Howard. Detroit could also use key left winger Henrik Zetterberg to return from an ankle injury. The Coyotes, well-drilled as always under coach Dave Tippett, can pull the upset if Bryzgalov outshines Howard. Prediction: Coyotes in Six

Nashville (5) vs. Anaheim (4)...Will this finally be the year that Barry Trotz and his Predators win a playoff series? Nashville is 0-for-5 in past postseasons, and the fans in Music City are getting a little restless.

The Preds might be catching the Ducks at a good time, as Anaheim (still with several key contributors from the 2007 Cup winners) is enduring a bit of a mini-crisis in goal. With Jonas Hiller dealing with vertigo issues and Ray Emery suffering from back and lower-body injury problems, the Ducks might have to go with ex-Predator and third goalie Dan Ellis, at least at the outset of the series. Can Anaheim’s powerful featured line of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan compensate? This one is a clear contrast in style, but the Preds’ trapping defense just might be able to slow down the Ducks, while solid GK Pekka Rinne is aided by ace defenders Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. Remember, Nashville was 13 seconds away from taking a 3-2 lead back to Bridgestone Arena in the first round last spring vs. eventual Cup winner Chicago. This time, the Preds close the deal. Prediction: Predators in Six

As always, stay tuned...

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