The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB-NBA !

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NBA Odds: Memphis at Portland Trail Blazers

Memphis and Portland have split their two previous meetings this season.
The battle for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference is on come Tuesday night from the Rose Garden, as the Portland Trail Blazers play host to the Memphis Grizzlies. This crucial NBA betting tilt on Tuesday is slated for a 7:00 p.m. (PT) tip time.

These two teams are separated by just one game with two to play, which makes this battle all the more important. Depending on how the New Orleans Hornets fare Monday night against the Utah Jazz, one of these teams will be in a position to clinch their playoff seed.

Should the Hornets win, a loss here for Memphis would make it the No. 8 seed and put it up against the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. If the Hornets lose, a Portland victory seals up the No. 6 seed and a battle against either the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers or Oklahoma City Thunder.

Rudy Gay has been out of the lineup for almost two months now, yet the Grizzlies have found a way to persevere without him. The team is 16-7 on the NBA odds in this run without Gay, which is why Memphis has guaranteed itself the best ATS mark of the season as the only team with 50 covers on the campaign.

The Grizz are 19-8 over the course of their last 27 games overall as well, and that's why they are in the playoffs once and for all and have a shot to make a huge statement this season.

Injuries and suspensions have plagued Memphis this season, as Mike Conley Jr. is the only man that has played in all 80 games to date, but we know that this has only made it a stronger bunch. A number of different players can step up on the average night to succeed, something that a lot of teams cannot really preach.

Zach Randolph is the leader of the bunch at 20.1 PPG and 12.2 RPG, though Conley, Marc Gasol and OJ Mayo are all double-digit scorers as well.

Portland has the look of a contender this year, and it too has played very, very well in the second half of the season. The acquisition of Gerald Wallace was a timely one, and though he was reluctant to move out to the Western Conference from the Charlotte Bobcats, he has certainly paid huge dividends.

Wallace is averaging 15.9 PPG and 7.8 RPG since the trade, and is one of three players averaging at least 15 points per game. Portland also has Andre Miller, Brandon Roy and Nicolas Batum all averaging at least a dozen points per game.

Keep a close eye on LaMarcus Aldridge. He'll be matched up with Randolph quite a bit in the paint. The former University of Texas standout has been huge this year on both sides of the court, and he is a real grinder that can make a difference in the paint. He's good for 21.8 PPG and 8.7 RPG, and has helped out defensively as well with nearly 100 steals and blocks combined on the campaign.

The NBA trends in this one are strong for both teams. The Grizzlies are 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games overall, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 on the road. Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.

This is the third and final meeting of the year. Memphis won 86-73 and lost 100-99 in the two previous encounters this year, both of which came at the FedEx Forum.

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NBA Betting Preview: Sinking LA Lakers host Spurs

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in a heated battle for playoff positioning when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night.

TNT will have the 7:30 p.m. (PT) broadcast from Staples Center, right after Chicago at the New York Knicks.

Los Angeles (55-25 straight-up, 37-42-1 against the spread) came storming out of the All-Star break at 17-1 SU (12-6 ATS) and looked like it might even overtake the Spurs for top seed in the Western Conference.

Coach Phil Jackson has seen things change dramatically. The Lakers have dropped five straight games (0-5 ATS) in an eight-day period, including a 120-106 home loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday.

L.A. led 104-103 with just over three minutes left, but was outscored 17-2 to end the game. It’s usually Kobe Bryant and company who take over late in contests, especially at home. The Thunder shot a whopping 55.6 percent from the field.

The 226 combined points scored soared way ‘over’ the 193-point total. The ‘under’ was 5-0 in the Lakers’ previous five games with the offense scoring 88.8 PPG and the defense allowing 90.8 PPG (average total 179.6 points).

Los Angeles is now tied with Dallas for the second seed pending Monday’s results, although it does own the tiebreaker. Both teams lead Oklahoma City by just one game.

The Lakers have their longest losing streak since 2006-2007, but still have all the pieces for their third straight NBA title. Bookmaker.com still has them at plus 155, significantly ahead of the Spurs (plus 465) and top East contenders Chicago (plus 255), Miami (plus 315) and Boston (plus 445).

The Spurs (61-19 SU, 44-34-2 ATS) have won four straight games (3-1 ATS) after a six-game losing streak. They have clinched the West and have a one-game lead over Chicago for homecourt advantage throughout the NBA playoffs. There will be a random drawing if they end up tied.

Coach Gregg Popovich certainly wants to finish ahead of Chicago, but also wants to keep his players rested. Starters Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker all played less than 30 minutes in Saturday’s 111-102 home win over Utah. Another starter, Antonio McDyess (back) sat out entirely.

San Antonio led by 11 points at halftime and by as much as 17 in the third quarter. However, Utah was able to cut the deficit to single digits early in the fourth and kept the final score just within the 10-point spread.

The 213 combined points scored went ‘over’ the 201-point total. The ‘over’ is 9-1 in San Antonio’s last 10 games.

San Antonio won and ‘covered’ the first two meetings with Los Angeles, including an 89-88 road win as three-point ‘dogs in early February. L.A. easily won the last matchup, 99-83 in San Antonio on March 6.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 this year and 7-0 in the last seven. It’s also 7-0 in the last seven in Los Angeles.

McDyess is listed as questionable for Tuesday, the only significant injury for either team. DeJuan Blair could start in the middle again, but he gives up five inches to Lakers’ pivot Andrew Bynum. Bynum is averaging a big 12.7 rebounds per game since the All-Star break and 2.4 blocks.

San Antonio’s deep bench will be tested once again as Popovich should keep the minutes down for starters Parker, Duncan and Ginobili.

The Spurs will finish their regular season Wednesday at Phoenix, while the Lakers will be at Sacramento the same night.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants, Dodgers continue MLB odds set in San Fran

The Giants have won Tim Lincecum’s last four starts at home vs. LA.
There was a rough four-game stretch last August when Tim Lincecum surrendered 19 earned runs in 19 innings.

But since then Lincecum has regained his status as arguably the No. 1 pitcher in baseball.

Lincecum is off to another fantastic year as he gets set to make his third start of 2011 on Tuesday night when the defending world champion San Francisco Giants host the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7:15 PT in the second of a three-game series.

The 26-year-old right-hander is 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA and an 18-to-three strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 innings.

This is following Lincecum’s huge September and postseason where he posted nine quality starts in 11 outings with a 2.17 ERA and 10.93 strikeouts-per-nine innings and 1.96 walks-per-nine innings ratios. San Francisco is 7-2 in Lincecum’s last nine starts.

But the Giants and Lincecum are out for revenge facing the Dodgers, who will be starting Chad Billingsley.

Los Angeles, behind Clayton Kershaw, nipped the Giants and Lincecum on Opening Day at Dodger Stadium. Lincecum held the Dodgers to no earned runs on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts in seven innings. But the Giants committed three errors and Kershaw won, 2-1, as a 115 favorites. The combined three runs went ‘under’ the 6 ½-run total.

The Dodgers won three of four from the Giants during that openings series with the victories coming by a combined four runs. The Giants have yet to go above .500 this year.

Billingsley defeated the Giants, 4-3, in the second game of the season as a 120 favorite against Jonathan Sanchez. The combined seven runs pushed on the seven-run total. Billingsley gave up three earned runs on five hits with four strikeouts and one walk in six innings.

The Giants’ runs against Billingsley came on a three-run homer by first baseman Brandon Belt. The rookie, however, is batting only .161 through his first 31 at bats.

Billingsley is 1-1 on the season with an 8.00 ERA as he was shelled in his second start losing as a 115 road ‘dog to Jason Hammel and Colorado this past Wednesday.

The Dodgers right-hander entered that matchup with a 6.29 ERA in 24 1/3 previous innings of work at Coors Field.

Los Angeles entered this series 18-38 the past 56 times it has been an underdog.

Lincecum is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers. The Giants are 4-0 the past four times Lincecum has faced the Dodgers at home. San Francisco has won seven of the last nine times when Lincecum has faced the Dodgers.

Billingsley is 7-3 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.73 ERA.

The Dodgers were 1-5 the past six times they’ve played the Giants at AT&T Park entering the three-game set. The three-game series ends on Wednesday. The Dodgers then open an eight-game homestand on Thursday versus St. Louis followed by Atlanta.

San Francisco is idle on Thursday followed by three games at Arizona and three at Colorado.

The weather forecast for Tuesday’s game at AT&T Park is for clear skies with temperatures in the mid-50s and winds blowing in at 14 mph.

The Giants are likely to be missing outfielder Andres Torres, who has an Achilles strain. Catcher Buster Posey has been hot, though, with at least one hit in seven of eight games entering the series. He was four-for-eight with a homer in San Francisco’s last two home games against the Dodgers.

Matt Kemp has been on fire for the Dodgers going eight-for-13 during this past weekend to raise his batting average to .438. He was five-for-12 with three extra base hits during the first series between the two clubs.

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MLB Betting Preview: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

Matinee week in Motown continues Tuesday with Game 2 of a three-game series between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers.

First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 10:05 a.m. (PT) with lefty CJ Wilson (2-0, 2.84) making his first career start against the Tigers and Brad Penny (0-2, 11.17) charged with slowing the Rangers bats.

All bats were lethargic in Monday's series opener when Texas' Alexi Ogando and Detroit's Justin Verlander hooked up in a classic pitching duel. Ogando and the Rangers, plus 120 underdogs, came out on top in the 2-0 final. The eight-run total was never approached, evening Texas' season line at 5-5 'over/under' and leaving Detroit 6-4 to the high side.

The win, Texas' third in its last four games in Detroit, gives the Rangers an MLB-best 9-1 record and up 8.3 units at the MLB betting window in the early going. The Tigers dropped to 3-7 (minus 5.0 units).

Wilson continues to pitch the Rangers into the win column with both of his 2011 starts Texas triumphs. Ron Washington's club won 24 of the left-hander's 33 regular season assignments in 2010 before Wilson's fortunes turned in the postseason with Texas 1-3 in his starts.

Six relief outings against the Tigers are all Wilson has to show for his career to date. Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta are the only Detroit hitters to have seen Wilson more than two plate appearances, and their numbers don't hold much promise. Martinez is 3-for-16 lifetime (.188) with Peralta 1-for-13 (.077).

Brandon Inge will be the only Motown cat in the lineup Tuesday to have ever taken Wilson deep.

Penny will be hoping a start in front of the home crowd turns his poor beginning to 2011 around. It certainly can't get much worse after the husky righty tossed a combined 9 2/3 innings at New York and Baltimore, allowing 12 earned runs, three homers and seven walks.

He last faced the Rangers in 2009 while pitching for the Red Sox. Penny's results in two starts that season were about the same as his results so far this year: 11 1/3 innings, nine earned, two Boston losses.

Tim Timmons should be behind the mask for Tuesday's game, his third plate assignment of the season. The home team and the 'under' are both 2-0 in his 2011 dish duty, one season after home teams were 20-12 and the 'under' was 18-11-3.

Skies should be mostly clear, though temps will be on the cool side in the mid-50s. A north wind at 12 mph is in the forecast (out to right-center).

Dave Bush is expected to get the call for the Rangers in Wednesday's series finale, also a matinee start in Motown (10:05 a.m. PT). It will be his first appearance of the '11 campaign and made necessary by last Friday's postponement in the opener of the series at Baltimore.

Max Scherzer (2-0, 5.73) will counter for Detroit. The Tigers will have Thursday off to travel west to begin a four-game series with Oakland on Friday. Texas will also enjoy Thursday off before beginning a three-game set in New York against the Yankees. That series will conclude an early 10-game roadie for the Rangers.

NOTE: Win-loss records shown for starting pitchers are their team's record in their starts unless otherwise noted.

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Soccer Odds: Manchester United hosts Chelsea

Manchester United has a 1-0 away victory advantage after defeating Chelsea at the famous Stanford Bridge Stadium. Manchester United’s away goal could make the difference in this matchup.

The only injury concern for Manchester United’s manager Alex Ferguson is young defender Rafael who remains doubtful for the match with a knee injury.

Chelsea will attack through the entire 90 minutes. They will have a difficult task trying to defeat Manchester United’s goalkeeper Edwin Van der Saar. Spanish striker Fernando Torres will do his best to show the Chelsea fans his true skills in front of the goal.

Unfortunately, he has not been able to score wearing the Chelsea colors since his transfer from Liverpool. This would be the best chance for Torres to prove that he is worth the money Chelsea spent for him in January.

Both sides will bring their “A” game to the field. It will be a very even match in the midfield. Chelsea only needs one goal to send this match to extra time. I would not be surprised if we see strikers Torres, Drogba and Anelka on the field at the same time for Chelsea later in the game. Manchester United defenders will have to be very solid the entire match.

Manchester United also has tricks up their sleeve. They had an outstanding performance in the first leg to end a 9-year winless record at Stamford Bridge. Players like Giggs, Park, Rooney and young striker Javier 'Chicharito' Hernandez can provide a deadly counterattack that could end Chelsea’s dreams of reaching the semifinals.

This match is likely to end in a draw, but I give Manchester United a small advantage. Unfortunately I’m not expecting a lot of goals, but it will be a very exciting match from the very first minute until the final whistle.

[StarDust Bum]

Washington Capitals top Eastern NHL odds

The annual chase for the Stanley Cup is finally here, and there are 16 teams hoping to raise the National Hockey League’s trophy in early June. One of the many things that make the hockey postseason special is that there always appears to be a couple of notable upsets along the way.

Chicago captured the Stanley Cup last year for the first time since 1961, and cashed tickets after opening the season as a +1000 long shot. Pittsburgh hoisted the trophy in 2009 after starting the year at +1200. Will another long shot emerge from this year’s Stanley Cup chase to provide a nice payday on a futures wager?

Let’s take a closer look at the four first-round series in the Eastern Conference to see if there are any potential upsets. Just last season, Philadelphia advanced all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals as the East’s seventh seed. More No. 1 seeds have lost in the first round than have won the Stanley Cup the previous seven finals.

(1) Washington (-205) vs. (8) New York Rangers (+175)

Washington is the top seed in the Eastern Conference for the second straight season, but the team is hoping that history does not repeat itself. The Capitals were bumped in the first round of last year’s playoffs by eighth-seed Montreal.

Washington is led by one of the best players in the game in Alexander Ovechkin, and the team finished the regular season with 107 points. The Capitals and Rangers met in the 2009 postseason, and Washington eventually advanced after trailing three games to one.

Both teams rely on defense to win games, with the Capitals ranking fourth in goals allowed per game and New York ranking fifth. The road team is 6-2 the last eight meetings in this series, while the ‘over’ is 5-2-1.

The Rangers went 3-1 against Washington this season, while the ‘over’ went 3-1. New York prevailed Dec. 12 as a 100 home underdog, 7-0, Jan. 24 in a shootout as a 160 road ‘dog, 2-1, and Feb. 25 as a 146 road ‘dog, 6-0. The Capitals' lone victory occurred Nov. 9 as 140 road ‘chalk,’ 5-3.

Washington is currently listed at 4/1 to win this year’s Stanley Cup, trailing just Vancouver at 3/1. New York opened the year as a 45/1 long shot to win, and will take the ice in its first-round series as a 30/1 selection.

(2) Philadelphia (-155) vs. (7) Buffalo (+135)

Philadelphia concluded the regular season by going an average 9-9-7 its last 25 games that included a 1-3-2 stretch the final six outings. Meanwhile, Buffalo has gone a robust 28-11-6 since Jan. 1 and is one of the league’s hottest teams hitting the playoffs.

One key matchup in this series figures on being the Sabres offense against the Flyers goaltenders. Buffalo ranked ninth in the league in offense by lighting the lamp 245 times for an average of 2.9 goals per contest. Philadelphia has a couple of options between the pipes that could very well determine this first-round series. Do the Flyers play rookie Sergei Bobrovsky who had a great season but struggled down the stretch, or proven veteran Brian Boucher?

Buffalo and Philadelphia split four games this season, with the Sabres winning the most recent encounters. The Sabres upended the Flyers Friday in overtime as a 114 home favorite, 4-3. The ‘over’ occurred in all four meetings this season, and a solid 19-6-1 the previous 26 encounters.

Philadelphia opened as a 12/1 selection before being bet to a current 7/1, while Buffalo has remained a constant 25/1 throughout the season. The Sabres have won the previous two playoff series with the Flyers in 2001 and 2006, but Philadelphia has a 5-3 series advantage that includes a victory in the 1975 Stanley Cup Finals.

(3) Boston (-205) vs. (6) Montreal (+175)

Boston and Montreal are one of hockey’s most historic rivalries between a pair of Original Six teams. The hostilities aren’t just confined to the history pages, especially after the Bruins’ Zdeno Chara knocked the Habs’ Max Pacioretty into a stanchion last month that resulted in a concussion and serious neck injury.

Boston is a physical team, while Montreal relies more on its quickness. However, can the Bruins physical style of play result in numerous power plays for a Habs team that ranks seventh in power play goals? Boston will take the postseason ice hoping to exercise any playoff demons from last years’ 3-0 series collapse versus Philadelphia.

Montreal went 4-2 against Boston this season, winning Nov. 11 as a 152 road ‘dog, 3-1, Dec. 16 as a 119 home ‘chalk,’ 4-3, Jan. 8 in overtime as a 109 home favorite, 3-2, and March 8 as a 105 home selection, 4-1. The Bruins triumphed Feb. 9 as 163 home ‘chalk,’ 8-6, and dominated the Habs in the last encounter March 24 as a 163 home favorite, 7-0. Montreal is now 9-3 the last 12 encounters with the Bruins, while the ‘over’ is 5-2-2 the previous nine meetings in Boston.

The Bruins have seen their odds improve from 20/1 to 8/1 to win the Stanley Cup, while rival Montreal has moved slightly from 30/1 to 25/1.

(4) Pittsburgh (-160) vs. (5) Tampa Bay (+140)

This series might just be defined by who is not participating as to which players will take to the ice. Pittsburgh will be without star forward Sidney Crosby as he continues to recover from a concussion, while Evgeni Malkin continues to serve a league suspension.

The highest goal scorer in this series now shifts to Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, who finished second in the league in scoring this season despite scoring just two goals the final 13 games. For the Lightning to advance, they will also need solid contributions from Martin St. Louis, Steve Downie and Ryan Malone.

The Penguins will have to rely on their defense until they get some of their offensive stars back on the ice. Pittsburgh ranks third in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games, seventh in goals against and the team leads the league in penalty-kill percentage.

These teams split four games during the regular season, and the favorite is 8-3 the past 11 meetings. The ‘under’ is 13-5-1 the previous 19 games in this series.

The Penguins are one of just four playoff teams that have seen their future odds decrease after opening the year as one of the favorites. Pittsburgh opened the year as one of the favorites at 6/1, but the team now takes the ice as a 10/1 selection. Tampa Bay has seen the biggest increase of any postseason squad, moving from an opening 45/1 to a current 15/1.

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NHL Betting: Vancouver Canucks sail into playoffs

Good goaltending, good health and a little positive momentum are three key ingredients for a National Hockey League team to have a long playoff run. The Vancouver Canucks, the top seed in the Western Conference, possess all those ingredients and more.

Note: Numbers in parenthesis are odds to win the Western Conference title courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Vancouver (+170) concluded the regular campaign by capturing seven of its last nine games to solidify the No.1 seed in the Western Conference with 117 points. That’s a whopping 12 points ahead of the second-seeded San Jose Sharks and 10 points more than a Washington Capitals squad that is seeded first in the Eastern Conference.

As a result, the Canucks will enjoy home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. That should be a fairly sizeable advantage, since Vancouver had the league’s best home record during the regular season at 27-9-1-4.

Playing on enemy ice won’t be a problem either, as the Canucks own a league-leading 27-10-3-1 ledger away from home.

The Canucks also lead the league in several other categories, including offense (3.1 GPG), defense (2.2 GPG) and power play success (24.3 percent). They rank third on the penalty kill with an 85.6 percent success rate.

Roberto Luongo provides the strong goaltending that Vancouver will need to make a long playoff run. The 32-year-old Montreal native is a sizzling 38-15-7 with a miniscule 2.11 GAA and a sparkling .928 save percentage. Luongo also has four shutouts.

Vancouver’s reward for all of this regular season success will be a meeting with the No. 8 seed. However, in this case, that means a matchup with the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks (+800).

Chicago made the postseason despite dropping five of its last nine outings, including Sunday’s 4-3 home loss against Detroit. A victory in that contest would have eliminated the Dallas Stars. Instead, the Hawks had to watch the Stars eliminate themselves during Sunday night’s 4-3 loss at Minnesota.

Though the Blackhawks lost quite a few offensive pieces from last year’s Cup team, they still rank fourth offensively by averaging 3.1 goals per game. They are also fourth on the power play with a 23.1 percent success rate.

Defensively, Chicago ranks 12th by allowing 2.7 goals per game. Though that ranking is certainly poorer than last season, the club’s new rookie goaltender cannot be faulted. First-season netminder Corey Crawford is 33-18-6 with a 2.30 GAA, a .917 save percentage and four shutouts.

The second-seeded San Jose Sharks (+225) enter postseason play by going 9-3 in their last 12 regular season contests. Ironically, the Sharks boost former Chicago netminder Antti Niemi between the pipes. Niemi has followed his stellar rookie campaign with a stellar sophomore season.

Niemi is 35-18-6 with a 2.38 GAA, a .920 save percentage and six shutouts. The 27-year-old workhorse started 31 of San Jose’s last 32 regular season contests.

Going down

The seventh-seeded Los Angeles Kings (+2200) dropped four of their last six games and scored one goal or less in all four of the setbacks. That’s not unusual for the Kings, as they rank a poor 25th offensively by averaging 2.5 goals per game.

The third-seeded Detroit Red Wings (+295) enter the playoffs by losing seven of their last 11 endeavors. Most of the late-season slide can be attributed to shaky defense and unsettled goaltending.

The Red Wings yielded three goals or more in eight of those 11 outings, including 10 markers in one miserable game against the St. Louis Blues. No. 1 goalie Jimmy Howard has a bloated 2.79 GAA, which is the highest of any netminder participating in the 2011 playoffs.

Phoenix (+1100), seeded sixth, dropped four of its last six games. However, that came on the heels of a streak that saw the squad win seven of eight.

Nevertheless, a hot goalie can take the Coyotes past the third-seeded Red Wings. And that’s just what the Coyotes posses in Ilya Bryzgalov. The 30-year-old netminder is 36-20-10 with a 2.48 GAA, a sparkling .921 save percentage and seven shutouts.

Going up

Going 10-3 to close out the season makes the Anaheim Ducks (+1100) a dangerous team heading into postseason play. Ray Emery and Dan Ellis have been sharing goaltending duties since No. 1 netminder Jonas Hiller went down with vertigo on Feb. 13. The Don Best Sports injury report list Hiller as “questionable” for Game 1 of Anaheim’s series against Nashville (+1100).

The Predators also come in hot, winning nine of their last 12 regular season outings. Unlike Anaheim, the Preds don’t have any goaltending questions.

Pekka Rinne has made sure of that by allowing two goals or less in six of his last 10 starts. The 6-foot-4 netminder is 33-22-0 with a tiny 2.21 GAA and a league-leading .930 save percentage. He also has six shutouts.

Western Conference series prices (courtesy of Sports Club)

(1) Vancouver (-215), (8) Chicago (+185)
(2) San Jose (-250), (7) Los Angeles (+210)
(3) Detroit (-200), (6) Phoenix (+170)
(4) Anaheim (-145), (5) Nashville (+125)

[StarDust Bum]

Baseball Betting Notes

April 11, 2011


Check the Bullpen

When handicapping baseball games most of us take a quick look at the current streaks of teams, look at the starting pitchers chart, but rarely do we ever sit down and take a hard look at what a team’s bullpen is doing. Part of that is because it’s not a stat line that is quickly offered or readily found as a statistic online. This is something that has to be accounted for as a mental note and written down next to every team's daily adjusted rating.

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With starting pitchers still on a short leash of 100 pitches regardless of how well they‘re doing, the bullpen becomes almost as important as the starter. Even in the heart of the regular season, how fun is it to lay a big price on Tim Lincecum only to find yourself with a wager on the Giants bullpen, who for some reason always seem to blow it for him. I found my self being talked into a few plays last week just because of a terrible bullpen situation by the opposing team and in each case was fortunate to cash.

Last Friday the Tampa Bay Rays were getting +145 against the White Sox. Through their first six games, the Rays had only scored eight runs and had scored only one run in five of those losses. It’s never a good strategy to bet a streak to stop, but the line seemed to be a little inflated due to the Rays’ hitting woes. There was value in a game that I had personally made Chicago a -140, but I couldn’t pull the trigger until I started looking at the White Sox bullpen numbers from their first six games.

The White Sox’s pen had allowed 16 runs and was overworked. Their closer, Matt Thornton, had already had his confidence shattered a couple times and was coming in as the worst kind of closer, one that’s scared.

So I had thrown all conventional wisdom regarding poor hitting teams on a losing streak out the window and made the wager on the Rays with the Sox bullpen being the deciding factor. Whether I got lucky or just tapped into an area I had not given much attention to in the past, the move paid off as the Rays won their first game of the year 9-7. Not only was it the first lead of the season for the Rays, but the five runs in the ninth inning all came off of Thornton.

Thus far we have four teams that have matched the White Sox futility in not being able to close out games. The Angels, Cubs and Cardinals haven’t given up as many runs as the White Sox, but they have all blown three save opportunities. In St. Louis, Ryan Franklin can’t get anything positive going with his three blown saves and four runs allowed in 3.2 innings and he’s on the verge of being replaced by 40-year old journeyman Miguel Batista.

Cards Struggling

Beyond all of Franklin’s troubles, the Cardinals are having trouble everywhere else as they currently are 28th in runs scored (27) and slugging percentage (.306). Most of that can be attributed to Matt Holliday being out of the lineup and Albert Pujols struggling in part because of it. But still, it’s pretty bad when pitcher Jake Westbrook has a higher batting average (.250) than your star slugger (.143) after nine games. Pujols has only five hits in nine games with only four RBIs. The Cardinals only have one player, Colby Rasmus, who has played at least three games that is batting over .300 which has contributed to their 3-6 record. They are likely to bounce back soon, but I’ll be taking long hard looks at betting against them in every game for the next week other than when Jaime Garcia is pitching.

Pitchers on the Rise

The days of getting plus money on Baltmore’s Zach Britton, Toronto’s Kyle Drabek and Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin may be gone soon unless they face an ace, but you still have to ride them for a while as their team has won both games they have started this season. All three having been dazzling, but the standout is Britton who shut down the red hot Rangers bats Saturday. He’s got a killer sinker that is worth riding to the bet window every game he pitches.

Beckett Sooths the Nation

Between seven losses, only Dustin Pedroia hitting and just one solid start from their pitching staff, the Red Sox Nation was in a bit of a panic mode heading into Josh Beckett’s Sunday night start against the Yankees. After eight strong shutout innings, Beckett -- perhaps the biggest question mark of the 2011 season, showed that he is capable of being a dominant pitcher again. Things should get better for prized free-agent pickup Carl Crawford, who has struggled miserably at the plate, as he faces his old team this week.

Hughes in Trouble

In two starts this year, Yankees starting pitcher Phil Hughes has allowed 11 earned runs in six innings of work. The 18-game winner from last year didn’t have a great spring and his fastball’s velocity is off by three miles per hour from last season, which has essentially allowed opposing hitters to tee off on him. I know it’s tough to bet against the powerful lineup of the Yankees, but until Hughes shows he’s better, he’s a great one to bet against.

The one positive for the Yankees if Hughes doesn’t return back to normalcy is that former Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon looks close to being like his old self coming out of the pen. In Friday’s loss to Boston, Colon was throwing some heat in the mid-90’s that Boston had trouble with.

Surprise Teams Paying Well

I know it’s early and not likely to last much longer, but I still can’t help feeling excited for what is going on in Cleveland, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Their all teams playing against a stacked deck of what today’s baseball is and are exceeding their abilities. Each one of these teams have shown they can hit the ball well which will give them a fighting chance all season, but the real surprise has been their pitching. How long will it last and how long should we ride the wave?

I feel good about taking Josh Tomlin in Cleveland, but I guess I can’t get enough nerve to even jump on the wave until seeing a few more weeks of play. I’ve bet Pittsburgh a couple of times this year, but there’s a stigma that is attached to these teams that kind of keeps me from playing them regularly, opting to play good teams with value. So while I'll tip-toe around the idea of betting on or against them, I'll just root for them all separately as just a regular baseball fan with little or no action.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/11/11 15-*6-*1 71.43% +*4200 Detail
04/10/11 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1450 Detail
04/09/11 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*250 Detail
04/08/11 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*600 Detail
04/06/11 10-*10-*2 50.00% -*500 Detail
04/05/11 11-*5-*0 68.75% +*2750 Detail
04/03/11 12-*8-*2 60.00% +*1600 Detail
04/02/11 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*250 Detail
04/01/11 15-*11-*0 57.69% +*1450 Detail
Totals 92-*71-*5 56.44% +6950

Tuesday, April 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET New York +4 500
New York -

Memphis - 10:00 PM ET Portland -5.5 500
Portland - Over 189 500

San Antonio - 10:30 PM ET San Antonio +6.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 193.5 500

------------------------------------------------------------
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/11/11 9-*9-*0 50.00% -*65 Detail
04/10/11 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1425 Detail
04/09/11 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*740 Detail
04/08/11 16-*9-*1 64.00% +*2845 Detail
04/07/11 8-*12-*0 40.00% -*2535 Detail
04/06/11 11-*14-*0 44.00% -*1330 Detail
04/05/11 15-*11-*1 57.69% +*1535 Detail
04/04/11 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*45 Detail
04/03/11 11-*15-*0 42.31% -*2105 Detail
04/02/11 14-*13-*1 51.85% +*565 Detail
04/01/11 10-*10-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
Totals 133-*126-*4 51.35% +995

Tuesday, April 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 1:05 PM ET Texas -128 500
Detroit - Over 9 500

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +164 500
NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:05 PM ET Washington +112 500
Washington - Under 8.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Milwaukee -117 500
Pittsburgh - Over 8 500

Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +161 500
Boston - Over 8 500

Florida - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -172 500
Atlanta - Over 8 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET Colorado +106 500
NY Mets - Over 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +109 500
Houston - Under 8 500

Oakland - 8:10 PM ET Oakland +114 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota -145 500
Minnesota - Over 8 500

St. Louis - 9:40 PM ET Arizona +132 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

Cleveland - 10:05 PM ET Cleveland +155 500
LA Angels - Over 7 500

Cincinnati - 10:05 PM ET Cincinnati +108 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Toronto - 10:10 PM ET Seattle +104 500
Seattle - Under 6.5 500

LA Dodgers - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -168 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers try to snap 5-game losing skid


SAN ANTONIO SPURS (61-19)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (55-25)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Lakers -7, Total: 194

Two weeks ago the Lakers were on their way to another excellent finish in their quest to repeat as champions. They had trimmed the Spurs lead in the West down to 1½ games and had won nine straight and 17 of 18 coming out of the All-Star break. Things have turned however, and Los Angeles enters Tuesday a half-game behind the Mavericks for second and just a half-game ahead of the Thunder for third in the West after losing five straight games.

The Spurs are 44-34 ATS this season and 25-13 ATS on the road. Both rank in the top five in the NBA. After winning their previous three ATS they barely failed to cover a 10-point spread in a 111-102 win over Utah on Saturday. The Spurs have won four in a row SU and are shooting 53.9 percent from the field, 47.4 behind the arc, and averaging 111.5 PPG over that span. The Spurs have won two of three games against the Lakers this season, but a few key players have struggled despite winning. Manu Ginobili is averaging just 9.7 PPG on 28.2 percent shooting, while Tim Duncan has missed 21-of-26 shots and is averaging just 4.0 PPG in the three games. The Spurs defense has really clamped down on L.A. this season, holding the Lakers to just 89.7 PPG and 30 percent shooting from three-point territory.

The Lakers are 37-43 ATS this season, which includes an awful 15-25 mark ATS at home. Los Angeles is tied with Miami for the worst record ATS at home this season. The Lakers have lost five straight and nine of 12 overall ATS. Los Angeles has struggled offensively over this five-game losing streak, shooting just 42.0 percent from the field and averaging just 90.8 PPG over that span. Kobe is averaging 25.6 PPG over that span, but shooting just 42.2 percent from the field. Ron Artest is averaging just 8.0 PPG while shooting 29.5 percent from the field.

The Lakers need to win this game so they don’t fall further back in the standings. They are guaranteed home-court advantage in the first round, but if they drop to fourth, they would relinquish home-court advantage against any of the other top three teams. They still have time to recover and grab the second seed. This game is too important for the Lakers to lose, and even though the Spurs would love to hurt L.A. by pushing them further back, I think Kobe and company will wake up and salvage this final week of the regular season. Seven points is a lot to give in this matchup, so while I like Los Angeles to win, I’m taking San Antonio to cover. My selection is supported by these two FoxSheets trends.

SAN ANTONIO is 27-13 ATS (67.5%, +12.7 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 105.0, OPPONENT 99.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Any team (L.A. LAKERS) - off a home loss against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. (154-95 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.8%, +49.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The Under is 13-2 in the past 15 meetings between these teams, including seven straight occurrences in this series. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under.

L.A. LAKERS are 46-24 UNDER (65.7%, +19.6 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 101.5, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Grizzlies-Blazers both try to improve playoff seeding


MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (46-34)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (47-33)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -5.5, Total: 189

Two teams sitting just one game from each other in the Western Conference standings will meet in Portland. Both the Grizzlies and Blazers have just two games left in their regular season and are trying to secure the best possible seed. The Blazers enter Tuesday one game ahead of Memphis for sixth, while the Grizzlies are just one-half game ahead of the Hornets for the eighth seed.

Memphis is 51-28 ATS this season, which leads the NBA. That includes a 25-14 record ATS mark on the road, which ranks third in the league. The Grizzlies have won nine of their past 11 ATS, and they enter Portland with a three-game ATS winning streak on the road. Memphis has really shot the ball well over its past 13 games, averaging 50.1 percent from the field and winning 10 of 13 SU over that span. Memphis has dominated teams inside all season averaging an NBA-best 51.6 PPG in the paint. Zach Randolph has thrived against the Blazers recently, averaging 22.8 PPG and 12.8 RPG over his past five games against them, while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

Portland is 41-34 ATS this season and its 23-16 record ATS at home is third-best in the NBA. The Blazers have really protected the ball well over their past five games, averaging just 9.0 turnovers per game. LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 21.2 PPG and 10.8 RPG over his past six games, and Wes Matthews has been hot over his past four contests, averaging 17.3 PPG on 58.3% FG. Matthews has also done well against Memphis this season, averaging 24.0 PPG while making 7-of-16 shots from behind the arc.

Both Memphis and Portland would like to avoid meeting the Spurs in the first round. While the Blazers are just about safe from doing that, the Grizzlies are just a half-game ahead of the Hornets. A win in Portland would give them the advantage over the Blazers in the standings (they would have won the season series). Memphis has also won 17 of its past 21 games ATS on the road against Western Conference opponents. The Grizzlies have won two straight in Portland and I like underdog Memphis to win again on Tuesday. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated reason to back the Grizzlies:

MEMPHIS is 34-15 ATS (69.4%, +17.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.1, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls try to win 8th straight vs. Amare-less Knicks


CHICAGO BULLS (60-20)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (42-38)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Bulls and Knicks both come into Tuesday’s game riding seven-game win streaks, with Chicago looking to lock down an all-important playoff positioning.

Chicago has won 19 out of 21 to earn the No. 1 seed which clinches home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bulls now have their eye on the NBA’s overall best record, which would give them home court throughout the entire playoffs including the NBA Finals. Chicago is one game back on the Western Conference-leading Spurs with New York to play Tuesday night and New Jersey on Wednesday. Derrick Rose (25.1 PPG) keeps making his push for MVP with performances like he had in the 102-99 win Sunday at Orlando by dropping 39 points on 13-for-17 shooting. With Amar’e Stoudemire likely out for Tuesday’s game, look for Carlos Boozer (17.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG) to have a big game scoring and on the boards against an undersized Knicks frontcourt.

After losing six in a row, the Knicks have put together a nice seven-game win streak and would love to keep it up heading into the playoffs. The Knicks have already clinched the sixth seed and a date with the Boston Celtics. New York is surprisingly also looking to sweep the season series versus Chicago for the first time in 11 years. The two teams haven’t played since the 103-95 Christmas day win for the Knicks, but a lot has changed since then. The Knicks hadn’t yet acquired leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (25.6 PPG), and the Bulls were without an injured Joakim Noah. Anthony hit the go-ahead shot in the 110-109 victory at Indiana Sunday then also blocked Danny Granger’s shot as time expired. Anthony has been playing inspired ball, averaging 31.5 PPG over his past eight games and also been playing noticeably better defense. Anthony will have to continue to take on the scoring with Stoudemire likely out to rest a sprained ankle.

Chicago (48-31 ATS) and New York (46-32 ATS) rank second and third, respectively, against the spread among all NBA teams. Chicago has been great on the road (24-16 ATS) and even better against teams with winning records (21-11 ATS). The Bulls, who are second in the NBA in defense (allowing 91.3 PPG), frustrate opposing high-scoring teams and consequently are 23-12 ATS against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. The Knicks haven’t been all that great against the spread at home (20-19 ATS), likely due to the high expectation of the Madison Square Garden crowd. New York has been good against teams with winning records (23-11 ATS), but is just 6-11 ATS against Central Division opponents. I don’t think there is any way New York will keep Chicago off the boards without Stoudemire. I like Chicago to win and cover on the road, which is supported by these two anti-Knicks FoxSheets trends.

Play Against - Any team (NEW YORK) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. (98-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.2%, +35.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home underdogs (NEW YORK) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less. (52-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +27.8 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Myers looks to retain dominance over Cubs


CHICAGO CUBS (5-5)

at HOUSTON ASTROS (2-8)


First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -115, Chicago +105, Total: 8

At 2-8 to start the season, and not-so-proud owners of the worst record in the National League, the Houston Astros are in dire need of a boost on the mound.

The ‘Stros pitching staff presently boast the worst team ERA in the senior circuit (5.75), and their hurlers have struck out the second-fewest batters in the NL (49). They are the only team in the NL allowing opposing teams to bat above .300 against them (.311). Coming off of Monday night’s 5-4 defeat at home to the visiting Cubs, manager Brad Mills’ team needs Tuesday’s starting pitcher to be the living, breathing definition of a stopper. He couldn’t ask for a better candidate than Brett Myers (0-0, 2.03 ERA), who has been kryptonite throughout his career to the Cub hitters.

Myers has been one of the few bright spots for Houston this year, throwing very well in his two previous starts. He stifled the Phillies on Opening Day, holding them to just three hits and one earned run over seven innings and out-pitching Roy Halladay. Myers was positioned for the win, before closer Brandon Lyon gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to send the Astros down to defeat. In his other start of the season, Myers took a no-decision as the Astros defeated Cincinnati 3-2. He pitched 6.1 innings, giving up six hits, two runs and striking out four.

Myers is 10-2 lifetime when starting against the Cubs with a 2.22 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He is 7-0 with one no-decision in his past eight outings versus Chicago, and hasn’t lost to the Cubs since May 2005 when he was with the Phillies. During this stretch of success, Myers has gone very deep into games, twice tossing complete-game victories, twice going eight innings, and three other times going seven innings. Even in that ‘05 loss to the Cubs, Myers only gave up two runs on five hits over eight innings, while striking out 10. Two other times versus Chicago, Myers has struck out at least 12 in a game. If the Astros, who have scored 39 runs in 10 games this year, can generate some run support for Myers, Chicago could be looking at an uphill battle at Minute Maid Park.

The Cubs will try and make it two in a row following a solid starting effort from Ryan Dempster in Monday’s 5-4 victory. Dempster went 6.1 innings, allowing four runs on six hits, while striking out nine. Carlos Marmol got the four-out save, his fourth of the season, closing the door on a late Houston rally in a game the Astros trailed 5-0 after four innings. 25-year-old lefty James Russell (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his first start of the season Tuesday night after two relief appearances. This will be a spot start for Russell, who reportedly will be on a strict pitch count of 45-50 pitches from Cubs manager Mike Quade, so expect Chicago to dip into the bullpen early, and possibly often, in this contest. Young shortstop sensation Starlin Castro is batting .364 with 16 hits to lead the Cubs, while Alfonso Soriano has three homers and seven RBI to pace the team.

Somehow the young Castro and the much older Soriano will try and see if their bats can lead the charge against Myers, who has been nothing short of masterful against them. Look for Houston and Myers to bounce back strongly against the Cubs at home Tuesday. The following two FoxSheets trends support this assertion.

Play On - Home teams (HOUSTON) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. (178-131 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.6%, +62.5 units. Rating = 2*).

BRETT MYERS is 12-2 (85.7%, +10.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was MYERS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

A-Rod set to return in series opener vs. Orioles


BALTIMORE ORIOLES (6-3)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (5-4)


First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -175, Baltimore +165, Total: 9.5

Two teams looking to jump-start their offenses meet Tuesday in the Bronx for the first of a three-game set. Baltimore only scored one run in its past two games against Texas while New York was shut out 4-0 on Sunday night in Boston. The Yankees lineup is expected to get a boost from Alex Rodriguez (.321 BA, 3 HR, 5 RBI), who should return to the field after missing Sunday’s game with flu-like symptoms.

The Orioles’ bats aren’t completely ice cold, but they have not come through in the clutch in their last two losses (13-1 and 3-0 defeats). Baltimore left 18 runners on base in the two losses after leaving an average of only 4.1 LOB in its first seven games this season. Chris Tillman (0-0, 3.38 ERA) makes his third start of the season for Baltimore. After throwing six shutout innings in his first start at Tampa Bay, the 22-year-old Tillman was roughed up for four runs and six hits in just 4.2 innings Thursday versus Detroit. He has also not fared well in his three career starts against the Yankees, posting a 5.52 ERA and 2.11 WHIP (20 H, 11 BB in 14.2 IP). Robinson Cano, who is 6-for-7 lifetime against Tillman, batted .444 with five homers and 12 RBI against Baltimore last season.

After scoring 15 runs on 21 hits in its first two games of the series against the Red Sox, New York was held to just two hits by Josh Beckett on Sunday. The Yankees will send A.J. Burnett (2-0, 4.09 ERA) to the mound in search of his third win this season. Burnett allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings Thursday against the Twins. This was a nice improvement over his season debut April 2 when he allowed three runs in five innings versus Detroit. Burnett is 11-4 lifetime in 18 career starts against Baltimore, but he has certainly not dominated the O’s with a 4.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Last year, he didn’t allow the Orioles to score in his first two outings (15.1 IP), but gave up 11 runs in 20.2 innings (4.79 ERA) the last three times he faced them in the 2010 season. But the only current Orioles hitter with great success against Burnett has been 2B Brian Roberts, who is hitting .300 with three homers and 10 RBI in 50 career at-bats versus Burnett. Catcher Matt Wieters is 0-for-17 when facing the Yankees right-hander.

Former Yankee skipper Buck Showalter has done a great job since becoming the Orioles manager last August, posting a 40-26 record (.606), including an even 3-3 split with New York. This spread seems awful large for what appears to be a pretty even pitching matchup, especially considering Burnett is just 3-13 (18.8%) against the money line when facing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons. But until Burnett strings together a few quality outings, I just can’t risk a lot of money on him yet. I’m picking big underdog Baltimore to open this series with a win, and these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also like the Orioles.

BUCK SHOWALTER is 13-3 (81.3%, +13.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less as the manager of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.7, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season. (34-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.7%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*).

With neither pitcher having much success against his opponent in the past, this should be a high-scoring game. This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over.

N.Y. YANKEES are 35-16 OVER (68.6%, +18.6 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N.Y. YANKEES 6.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Playoff Preview: Vancouver-Chicago


With the NHL regular season wrapping up in dramatic fashion this past weekend, especially for fans in New York and Chicago, it’s time to look ahead to the NHL postseason which begins Wednesday. To get you ready for the playoffs, we have analyzed all 16 playoff teams to determine just how long each would last in the postseason. Next up is the Canucks/Blackhawks series.
Betting Odds are according to Sportsbook.com.


No. 1 seed VANCOUVER CANUCKS vs.
No. 8 seed CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Series Schedule:
Game 1 at VAN: Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET (CBC, Versus)

Game 2 at VAN: Friday, 10 p.m. ET (CBC, Versus)

Game 3 at CHI: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (CBC, Versus)

Game 4 at CHI: April 19, 8 p.m. ET (CBC, Versus)

Game 5 at VAN: April 21, 10 p.m. ET* (CBC, Versus)

Game 6 at CHI: April 24, 7:30 p.m. ET* (CBC)

Game 7 at VAN: April 26, TBD* (CBC)
* If necessary

VANCOUVER CANUCKS
(3-to-1 odds to win Stanley Cup)

In 23 previous playoff appearances, the only two times the Canucks advanced past the conference semifinals were two Stanley Cup Finals losses (1994 and 1982). However, this is the first time that Vancouver has won the Presidents’ Trophy.

Offensively, the Canucks were led by the Brothers’ Sedin, Daniel and Henrik. Daniel led the NHL in points (104) and was tied for fourth in goals (41), while Henrik topped the league in assists (75). Ryan Kessler also had 41 goals on the season. Vancouver led the NHL in goals per game (3.15) and only Anaheim had a higher shooting percentage.

Despite a rash of injuries to their defensive corps, Vancouver did not miss a beat this season. Injuries did not affect Vancouver’s performance on special teams. No team had a higher percentage (24.4%) or scored more goals (72) on the power play than the Canucks this season. Vancouver ranked near the top of the league in time short-handed this season, yet killed those penalties very well, as only the Penguins and Capitals had a higher PK percentage (85.9%).

Goalie Roberto Luongo posted a career year, tying for the NHL lead in wins (38), placing second in GAA (2.11), and third in Save Pct. (.928). Luongo needs to be the unquestioned leader of this team if it wants to advance deep into the postseason. If he does that, combined with Vancouver’s excellence in their other areas, the Canucks could be lifting Lord Stanley’s Cup for the first time.


CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
(15-to-1 odds to win Stanley Cup)

Chicago made its fans suffer, as it blew a chance to clinch the postseason at home against the Red Wings, then needed Minnesota to upset the Stars in order to defend its title. The bad news for the Hawks is that they get Presidents’ Trophy winner Vancouver in the first round, but history shows that an eight seed is perfectly capable of making a run in the postseason.

Offensively, the Hawks are more than capable as three players recorded seasons of 70 or more points led by Jonathan Toews. The 2010 Conn Smythe winner centers for perhaps the best first line in the playoffs, with snipers Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp on the wings.

Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith and Brian Campbell provide excellent stability on defense and each logged over 23 minutes a game on ice. However, Chicago does not possess the same depth on its back lines than it did last season. Gone are Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg and Andrew Ladd, all players who contributed significantly to the Cup run last season.

Another player who watched on the bench last season was goaltender Corey Crawford, who now will be relied on to lead his team back to the Finals. The Hawks knocked out the Canucks in the second round in each of the last two seasons. However, this is a different Chicago team as well as a Vancouver team that desperately wants to shed the label of playoff choke artists and eliminate the defending Stanley Cup Champions in the first round.

******* Series Prediction: Canucks in six.
Vancouver is the favorite to win the Stanley Cup and for good reason. The Canucks will be tested in this series, but their talent will shine through and lead them past the defending champs.