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**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:32 PM

Dallas continues quest for 2nd place in West

DALLAS MAVERICKS (55-25)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (42-38)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Mavericks find themselves in a tight race for the second seed in the Western Conference and face a Rockets team who might be without some key players.

Dallas is tied with the Lakers for second place and both teams are one game ahead of Oklahoma City. Dallas lost four in a row before winning its last two over the Clippers and Suns. Luckily for the Mavericks, the Lakers have dropped five straight games, and most recently were defeated by the Thunder 120-106 on Sunday. After a scuffle during a timeout in Friday’s game, J.J. Barea (9.5 PPG) and Jason Terry (15.7 PPG) resolved their differences and combined for 32 points off the bench in Sunday’s 115-90 win over the Suns. Dallas has won all three games versus Houston this season and looks to sweep the season series for the first time since 2002-2003.

Houston finds itself on the outside looking in on the playoffs, but will still play hard for veteran coach Rick Adelman who recently just won his 944th career game to move into eighth on the all-time list. Luis Scola (18.3 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (13.5 PPG) sat out Saturday’s 99-78 victory over the Clippers, and both players are doubtful for Monday’s game. This will put more pressure on leading scorer Kevin Martin (23.4 PPG) to have a high-scoring effort for the Rockets to keep up with the high-powered Mavs. In the season series versus Dallas, Martin has averaged 20.3 PPG, but shot just 37.8 percent from the floor. Houston also needs Chuck Hayes (7.9 PPG 8.0 RPG) to play as he did Saturday when he recorded a double-double by dropping 12 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.

Dallas has been great on the road at 24-16 ATS, and has also played well in back-to-back games (12-7 ATS). Dallas, which loves a shootout, is 24-17 ATS against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. Houston has not been hard to beat at home (19-20 ATS) and only 18-22 ATS against teams with winning records. The Rockets are 22-18 when revenging a loss against an opponent, but with Scola and Lowry likely out, Dallas should win comfortably with a lot to play for. The FoxSheets provide two more trends favoring the Mavericks:

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. (95-53 since 1996.) (64.2%, +36.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (58-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:33 PM

Braden-Buehrle pitted in matchup of perfect-game throwers

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (4-5)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (6-3)

First pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -120, Oakland +110, Total: 9

It will be baseball’s best offense against one of baseball’s worst offenses when the White Sox host Oakland on Monday night at U.S. Cellular Field. Chicago enters the series fresh off taking three out of four from the Tampa Bay Rays, who are last in the league in runs scored (20), hitting (.163 BA), and on-base percentage (.232). Oakland is better than that, but not by much. The A’s rank 25th in runs (29) and on-base percentage (.293), and have a team batting average of .233. Only the Minnesota Twins have hit fewer home runs (three) than Oakland’s four. With bats like that, you better have your best pitchers taking the mound as often as possible. Monday night Dallas Braden (he of 2011 perfect game fame) will take the mound looking for his first win of the ‘11 against Mark Buehrle, who oh, by the way, has also thrown a perfect game, and a no-hitter during his career. Not to say that we should be on the lookout for Buehrle to stifle a poor hitting team. I’m just saying, to quote comedian Chris Rock: you never know.

While Buehrle will try and keep the Oakland bats quiet, no one has had much success at quieting down Chicago’s offense. The pale hose are first in the league in runs scored (62), third in batting average (.307) and OBP (.367) and second in slugging pct. (.485). All this offense, despite playing without slugging DH Adam Dunn, who is day-to-day as he recovers from an emergency appendectomy. Paul Konerko is carrying the load so far for Chicago, hitting .400 with three home runs, 11 RBI and 14 hits, those are just four of the offensive categories he leads the team in right now. Second baseman Gordon Beckham is hitting it like Beckham, right behind Konerko with 13 hits, while batting .333 with two homers and six RBI. Outfielder Carlos Quentin is batting .353 and has already driven in 10 RBI.

The bats were on full display during the start of the homestand against Tampa as the White Sox took three of four, scoring 22 runs during the four-game series. Chicago is 2-0 and averaging 7.5 runs per game against left-handed pitching so far this season. While Braden can be spectacular at times, he did not show that form in his first start of the season, a 5-3 loss to Toronto in which he allowed 10 hits and five earned runs over seven innings.

Oakland is coming off of taking two of three from the Twins in Target Field, in a series in which they continued to struggle with the bats (seven runs in three games), but where a five-run output in Sunday’s series-clinching win qualifies as an offensive explosion. Hideki Matsui, who had been hitting .160, got his first home run as an Athletic, slamming a ball off the right field scoreboard in the fourth inning. He scored another run in the four-run rally in the sixth that helped pad the lead as the A’s went on to win 5-3. "You know it's going to come," A's manager Bob Geren said of Matsui. "To see that performance, that ball jumped out of here in a hurry. He got the whole bench really excited."

Brandon McCarthy pitched 7.1 innings, allowing two runs on nine hits to earn his first win since 2009. The four-run sixth inning matched Oakland’s offensive output for the previous three games, sparking a sense around the clubhouse that maybe the bats are ready to turn the corner. "It was good that the offense came together," Matsui said. "The starting pitching has been pitching well, but they weren't quite getting the offensive support." Monday Buehrle and the Sox will test just how rejuvenated Oakland’s offense really is.

In the two games that Buehrle has started this year, the White Sox have totaled 25 runs, winning both contests. Braden is 2-0 when starting against Chicago with an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.08. His team's record is 3-0 in these starts. Buehrle is a dreadful 4-13 when starting against Oakland with a 4.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His team's record is 5-17 (.227) in these starts. In a matchup that you don’t see every day, featuring two southpaws who have each thrown perfect games in their respective careers, I like Chicago to prevail in a low-scoring affair, and the FoxSheets back up this selection with these two trends:

CHI WHITE SOX are 19-5 (79.2%, +13.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

OAKLAND is 3-17 (15.0%, -13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.5, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:34 PM

Kershaw looks to retain dominance over Giants

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (5-4)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (4-5)

First pitch: Monday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -110, Los Angeles +100, Total: 6.5

It’s mid-April, but one of baseball’s best rivalries is ready to start its second series of the young season when the Dodgers visit San Francisco on Monday night.

L.A. took three of four from the Giants at Dodger Stadium to open the season, reversing a trend from the second half of last season when San Francisco beat the Dodgers nine times in 12 games after the All-Star break.

This will be a matchup of two of baseball’s most promising young pitchers. Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw is just 23, but he’s already in his fourth big league season. He was magnificent on Opening Day against the Giants, shutting them out over seven innings, allowing four hits and striking out nine while walking only one, in a 2-1 L.A. victory. He’s simply dominated the Giants over six career starts, going 2-1 with a 1.25 ERA. Last September, he threw a shutout in San Francisco. In August, he held the Giants to two runs over seven innings in a 2-0 road loss. Overall, Kershaw has been just as effective on the road as he has been at home. Since 2010, he’s 6-6 with a 2.55 ERA on the road and 8-5 with a 3.13 ERA at Dodger Stadium.

Bumgarner was a hero in the 2010 World Series, but the 21-year-old’s 2011 campaign didn’t get off to a great start. The Padres, who have one of baseball’s weakest lineups, got to Bumgarner for three runs in three innings. Eight San Diego hitters reached base in those three innings, which led to an early hook for the right-hander. So far in his young career, Bumgarner has been far better on the road than at AT&T Park. Including the postseason, he’s 1-3 with a 4.47 ERA over nine home starts, as compared to 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA in 11 starts on the road.

Kershaw is approaching a Cy Young level and has proven he can get it done on the road, while Bumgarner is still a bit shaky at this point in his career. Considering the even odds on the Dodgers Monday night, I’m picking Los Angeles.The Dodgers have already swiped 11 bases through nine games, and the FoxSheets have a trend that shows the Giants haven’t fared well against speed:

SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13 (23.5%, -13.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:34 PM

Boston opens series with struggling Rays

TAMPA BAY RAYS (1-8)

at BOSTON RED SOX (2-7)

First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -150, Tampa Bay +140, Total: 9

Now that the Red Sox have brought their fans back from the ledge of a possible 0-9 start by taking two out of three from the Yankees, Terry Francona’s squad will try and achieve another first for the 2011 season: the first winning streak of the year. Standing in the way of that feat will be the Tampa Bay Rays, 1-8, mired in last place, and feeling very confused as the MLB season enters its second full week of play.

Little has gone right for the Rays. Evan Longoria is on the disabled list, tallying just 5 AB since the start of the season. Manny Ramirez, who was expected to provide some much-needed offensive punch this year, abruptly retired Friday after reportedly learning that he was facing a major suspension due to a recent failed drug test for performance-enhancing drugs. Ramirez was batting .059 with one hit and one RBI in 17 at-bats. Hitting .290, with 2 HR and 4 RBI, B.J. Upton leads the team in all three offensive categories, small consolation on a team that has scored just 20 runs in nine games, while allowing 44 runs to the opponent.

Silver lining? At least the Rays can say they’ve been better on the road than at home, but only because they are 0-5 at Tampa Bay, and 1-3 away. The road is where they will be Monday night as they invade Fenway Park for the first time this season. The Rays are 9-9 at Fenway over the last three seasons. Tampa is coming off of a 6-1 loss Sunday to the White Sox in a game that saw starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (0-2) get pounded, pitching just 2.2 innings, giving up five hits, five runs (three earned) walking two and striking out just one.

Tampa will turn to 24-year-old right-hander Jeremy Hellickson on Monday night, as he hopes to improve on what was his first-ever outing in Fenway last season, when he gave up three runs in just 1.2 innings in relief. "I didn't pitch too well there last year, so looking forward to getting back out there,“ Hellickson said, adding, “It's a park you really want to go to growing up. I was in the bullpen [when he pitched at Fenway last year]. I enjoyed being in there. Once I got in there, I didn't do too well, so I want to get back out there." Hellickson, who had a pitching line of 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K in his season’s first start Wednesday against the Angels, will try and become the first Tampa starter to notch a win in 2011.

Daisuke Matsuzaka will try and extend the Red Sox win streak to two, while trying to bounce back from a disappointing start in his initial outing. He gave up three runs and six hits in just five innings on Wednesday as the Red Sox went down to defeat, 8-4 at Cleveland, en route to being swept by the Tribe. Matsuzaka is hoping that some of the good karma from Sunday night’s outing by teammate Josh Beckett is still on the mound. Beckett held the Yankees to just two hits over eight shutout innings, striking out 10 and walking just one as the Sox blanked New York 4-0.

Matsuzaka is 3-6 lifetime in 14 career starts against Tampa, with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.54. His team's record is 5-9 in these starts. Tampa has won the last four games in which Matsuzaka has started against them, the last time the Sox won a game in which Dice-K started against the Rays was October 2008. In that game, Matsuzaka only lasted four innings, while giving up five runs. Before this recent streak of futility, he actually defeated the Rays in consecutive starts in 2008, including a gem in October of that year in which he pitched seven innings of shutout ball, allowing just four hits and striking out nine.

I like the Red Sox to continue to benefit from some much-needed home cooking and to build on their first series win of the year with a winning streak against the Rays. The following two FoxSheets trends support this selection of Boston.

Play On - Home teams (BOSTON) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. (175-128 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.8%, +63.2 units. Rating = 2*).

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA is 22-5 (81.5%, +14.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game since 1997. (Team's Record). The average score was MATSUZAKA 5.8, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:35 PM

Verlander tries to cool off hot Texas bats Monday

TEXAS RANGERS (8-1)

at DETROIT TIGERS (3-6)

First pitch: Monday, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -125, Texas +115, Total: 8

The Rangers have come out red hot in 2011, but they’ll have one of their toughest matchups of the year when they face Tigers ace Justin Verlander in Detroit on Monday.

This will be Verlander’s first home start of the year, and he’s been outstanding at Comerica Park the past two seasons. He made 32 home starts in 2009 and ’10, going 22-5 with a 2.56 ERA, while the Tigers went 26-6 (.813) in those starts. He’s made eight career starts against the Rangers, going 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA while Detroit has gone 7-1, allowing more than three earned runs in just one of those starts. Verlander has faced the Rangers at home four times since 2007 and gave up just one earned run in each of those starts, all Detroit wins. The Tigers are 10-2 at home against the Rangers since 2008, including 6-0 in April matchups.

Going up against Verlander will be Alexi Ogando, who made his first major league start last Tuesday. He was outstanding, throwing six shutout innings against the Mariners, allowing just two hits and two walks. The 27-year-old had a 1.30 ERA in 44 appearances out of the bullpen last season. He threw just 2.1 innings against the Tigers last season, allowing one run and four base runners.

As encouraging as Ogando’s first start was, shutting down Seattle at home isn’t exactly a rare accomplishment. Considering how good Verlander is in Detroit and against Texas, and how unproven Ogando is overall, there’s no reason to roll the dice on the underdog here. I’m going with Detroit. The FoxSheets has a trend that supports Tigers manager Jim Leyland when facing a strong lineup like the Rangers’:

LEYLAND is 32-18 (64.0%, +18.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.7 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of DETROIT. The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:37 PM

MLB Odds: Early betting trends and statistics

No team that started a season 1-7 has ever reached the World Series.
It's still far too early to draw definitive conclusions for the 2011 MLB season with the long campaign barely a week old. Still, a few initial trends and returns do bear watching, beginning with the incredibly poor start by the Boston Red Sox.

Preseason favorites to win the American League, Boston went into the Sunday night matchup with the New York Yankees have dropped seven of its first eight. The Red Sox offense, whish was supposed to the club's strength, ranked near the bottom in batting and slugging in the AL, the lineup scoring a full run below the league average with 3.62 runs per game.

The slow start by their sticks didn't hold a candle to the pathetic beginning by Red Sox hurlers, however. Boston pitchers ranked dead last in the majors with a 7.09 ERA, serving up 19 long balls over the course of the first 66 innings in the books.

While it's relatively safe to expect the Red Sox lineup to come around and eventually rank as one of the best in the Junior Circuit, the pitching woes might be a different story. The rotation has just one quality start, that coming from Jon Lester last Thursday in a 1-0 loss at Cleveland.

Two arms that specifically stand out as culprits to Boston's poor start are Clay Buchholz and John Lackey. The right-handers have each made two starts, surrendering eight of the 19 homers allowed by the staff and posting a combined 11.08 ERA.

Oddsmakers are already adjusting their future prices with the Yankees now having surpassed the Red Sox as the team to beat in the AL. New York was getting a 3/1 price with Boston at 4/1 and the red-hot Texas Rangers 6/1.

Philadelphia continues to lead World Series futures at 7/2. The Yankees (6/1), Red Sox (8/1) and Rangers (11/1) trail the NL favorites.

Astros also slow off the launching pad

Speaking of slow starts, the Houston Astros are also heading into play Sunday (April 10) with a 1-7 record. At least that's an improvement of a win compared to their 0-8 opening to the 2010 season.

While a bad start wasn't exactly unexpected for the NL Central club, Houston's 6-2 record to the 'over' is a bit of a shock. The Astros have been a predominantly 'under' team the past few seasons, the big reason being an impotent batting order and a better-than-average pitching staff.

The quick start to the high side of totals this year can be explained in part by the fact Houston began the season on the road against the Phillies and Reds, two of the National League's most potent groups of hitters.

Astros pitchers were charged with an MLB-high 54 runs (6.42 ERA) in the first eight games. Brett Myers has picked up where he left off after a fine 2010 campaign, but that's the only arm worth noting on the staff in the early going of 2011. The other four starters – Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, Nelson Figueroa and JA Happ – have combined for an 8.90 ERA in their six outings.

Houston's 6-2 record to the high side of totals is tied for third behind co-leaders Philadelphia and the New York Mets, each at 7-0-1 'over.' Top 'under' records a little more than a week into the season belong to Minnesota (6-2), Pittsburgh (6-2-1) and Tampa Bay (6-2).

For every loser, there's a winner

The rough beginnings for Boston and Houston have some of their fans and futures bettors already throwing in the towel. Meanwhile in Baltimore and Cleveland, the reverse is true.

Both the Orioles and Indians were atop their respective AL divisions with 6-2 marks, and those who have been wagering the O's and Tribe so far are sitting in tall cotton. Texas leads the list of teams off to a profitable start with a return of 6.1 units, followed closely by Cleveland (6.0 units) and Baltimore (5.5).

Buck Showalter's Orioles have been getting it done primarily on the mound. Baltimore pitchers allowed just one run in each of their first four games, all wins. The O's outscored the opposition by 22 runs in the six victories, and were outscored by 16 in the two losses.

Pitching was nowhere to be found in Cleveland when the Indians started the season with a pair of losses to the Chicago White Sox by a combined 23-13 tally. Manny Acta's group put an end to that by reeling off six consecutive wins after the 0-2 start, Tribe pitchers charged with only 10 runs in the six-game span.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:38 PM

Orlando Magic at 76ers in NBA betting action

The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers don't really have all that much left to play for in the regular season, but both are looking to carry some momentum into the playoffs for the coming year.

The two will hook up in NBA betting action on Monday night at Wells Fargo Arena in the City of Brotherly Love. Tip time is slated for 4:00 p.m. (PT).

Orlando knows it will be the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs regardless of what happens in these final two regular season games. Sure, there are still teams to catch or stay in front of in the Western Conference for potential home court advantage in the NBA Finals, but no one in the Sunshine State north of Lake Okeechobee is worried about that right now.

Philadelphia could still end up either as the No. 6 or the No. 7 seed. Coming into play on Sunday, the Sixers are a half-game back of the New York Knicks. New York has three games to play, including a Sunday slugfest with the Indiana Pacers, while Philly only has two games remaining.

Though that will make a difference should the two teams end up playing each other in the second round of the second season, it's a highly unlikely matchup. Right now, it probably couldn't matter less to either team whether they take on the Boston Celtics or Miami Heat in the first round.

Still, there's plenty of fuel in this fire on both sides. Orlando needs to prove that it can beat some playoff caliber opponents once again. Barring a win over the Chicago Bulls on Sunday without the suspended Dwight Howard in the lineup, the last victory against a team that will be in the postseason was against the Knicks back on March 23.

The last win against a team that is going to finish above .500 for sure was five days prior to that against the Denver Nuggets.

Howard will surely be on the prowl once again after his hiatus thanks to his 18th technical foul of the season against the Charlotte Bobcats. This could have been a blessing in disguise for "Superman," as he will have had four full days off between games in preparation for this one, something that could pay dividends in the postseason.

Philadelphia has been a sneaky team in the second half of the season, and it is definitely going to be a formidable foe in the first round of the playoffs regardless who the Sixers are playing. This is a team that in the last month has picked up a win at home against the Atlanta Hawks, one on the road at the Bulls (something that just four others can say this season), and one at home against the Celtics.

There was also a heartbreaking OT loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder in that mix as well.

It's been over two months since the Magic and 76ers had at it, and in that last meeting in February, Howard went off for 30 points and 17 boards. Howard also had 26 points and 20 boards in a game against Philly in December. That game might have been lost, but Philly took advantage of the fact that Orlando only had eight healthy bodies to use after the trades with the Washington Wizards and Phoenix Suns.

Aside from that, Philadelphia hasn't won a game in this series since Game 4 of the conference quarterfinals two seasons ago, a stretch of nine victories for Orlando.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:38 PM

NBA Odds: LeBron James, Miami trek to Atlanta

Checking the points, plugs, oil and air in the tires will be on the menu Monday night (4:00 p.m. PT) when the Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat in a battle of Southeast Division foes that have already clinched playoff spots.

Miami will be at a scheduling disadvantage in this spot. The Heat will be playing their third game in four nights, as well as the second half of a back-to-back situation.

Erik Spoelstra’s Heat will be traveling to Atlanta after playing a nationally televised Sunday afternoon contest at home against a Boston squad that is tied with them for the Eastern Conference’s second seed.

Prior to Sunday’s game against Boston, the Heat had won eight of their last 10 outings straight-up. But they are 4-6 ATS during that span, lowering their spread ledger to a less-than-impressive 37-41-1 overall.

Miami has had little trouble putting the ball in the basket during that 10-game stretch, registering 100 points or more eight times. The surge has lifted Miami’s offense to eighth best in the league, averaging 102.2 points per game.

Much of that offensive prowess can be attributed to Miami having the second-best field goal percentage in the league at 48.1 percent. The Heat are also making 36.8 percent of their three-point shots, which ranks eighth.

Defense has also been a strong suit, as Miami ranks eighth in the league by allowing 95.1 points per game. The Heat are allowing the opposition to shoot just 43.3 percent from the field, which ranks second.

Miami got ready for Sunday’s showdown against Boston by defeating Charlotte on Friday as 13 ½-point home favorites, 112-103. The combined 215 points soared well above the 188-point closing total, leaving the ‘over’ 41-37-1 in Miami’s first 79 overall outings.

The Heat received 77 points combined from the Big 3 of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. That included 27 points from Wade in his first game back since bruising his right thigh last Sunday.

Atlanta is solidly entrenched as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but the club is not happy with the way it is entering postseason play.

The Hawks dropped their fourth straight game Saturday when the Washington Wizards handed them a 115-83 spanking. The Hawks closed as 2 ½-point road favorites, which lowered their spread record to a dismal 37-43.

The combined 198 points ducked below the 201-point closing total, which allowed the ‘under’ to cash in six of Atlanta’s last eight games. The ‘under’ is 46-34 in the Hawks’ first 80 overall efforts.

Atlanta continues to play without Josh Smith, who has missed the club’s last three games with a sprained knee. However, the Don Best Sports injury report lists Smith as “probable” for Monday’s contest.

Al Horford led the Hawks in Smith’s absence against the Wizards by scoring 21 points and hauling down 10 rebounds.

The Hawks are 24-16 SU at home, but just 16-24 ATS. The ‘under’ is 23-17 in their first 40 home dates.

Miami has captured two of the first three meetings against the Hawks this season, with the ‘under’ cashing on two occasions.

The first matchup (Dec. 4) saw the Heat register an 89-77 victory as 8 ½-point home favorites. The total closed at 192 ½ points.

Atlanta got its revenge in the meeting on Jan. 18 by notching a 93-89 overtime victory as a 5 ½-point road underdog. Despite the extra session, the game still ducked ‘under’ the 194-point closing total.

The most recent meeting (March 18), saw the Heat record a lopsided 106-85 victory as 6 ½-point road favorites. This was the lone game to go ‘over’ the total, which closed at just 187 ½-points.

The favorite is now 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings between the Hawks and Heat, with the ‘under’ going 13-5 in the last 18 series matchups.

Miami concludes the regular season Wednesday with a road game against Toronto. Atlanta ends its regular season with a Wednesday trip to Charlotte to play the Bobcats.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:39 PM

MLB Betting Preview: LA Dodgers at SF Giants
By: Willie Bee | Sunday, April 10, 2011
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers aren't wasting anytime getting reacquainted this season. The longtime rivals square off for a second series of the young campaign in Monday's series opener at AT&T Park (7:15 p.m. PT).

Game 1 will feature a battle of young southpaws with Clayton Kershaw the scheduled starter for the Dodgers and Madison Bumgarner on the hill for the Giants.

Both clubs failed to pull off weekend sweeps on Sunday. The Giants, winners of three straight, got cracked 6-1 as 130 favorites by the Cardinals while the Dodgers were slugged 7-2 as 125 underdogs in San Diego.

San Francisco lost three of four in Los Angeles to start the season, including the season opener to Kershaw (1-1, 2.08). The lefty blanked the Giants over seven frames, striking out nine and walking none in the 2-1 LA triumph. He followed that up with six more good innings at Colorado on April 5, but allowed a pair of homers in a 3-0 whitewashing by the Rockies.

Kershaw made four trips to the mound versus the Giants in 2010 with Los Angeles winning twice. The Dodgers were 1-1 in his two starts in San Francisco, the victory coming in a 1-0 complete game shutout by Kershaw on Sept. 14. His only other appearance at AT&T Park came in a relief role near the end of his 2008 rookie season.

Bumgarner (0-1, 9.00) will be making just his second start of 2011 and first at home. The 21-year-old out of Hickory, NC, tossed three frames in San Diego on April 5, burning 73 pitches while allowing all three Padres runs in their 3-1 victory.

He was removed after a Nick Hundley double opened the San Diego fourth inning followed a wild third inning in which Bumgarner walked a pair, including one with the sacks full.

Bumgarner has faced the Dodgers just twice before in his career, both games in Los Angeles and only one of the appearances in a starting role. San Francisco won that game last July, 5-2, with Bumgarner working into the sixth and surrendering just one earned run, a solo shot by Rafael Furcal.

The Giants were 4-4 in Bumgarner's eight 2010 home assignments where his ERA was 4.60 compared to 1.91 in 10 starts away from San Francisco.

San Francisco won 10 of the 18 meetings between the two clubs in 2010, going 5-4 at AT&T Park.

Entering play Sunday, the Giants were scoring 4.5 runs per game compared to LA's 3.25 which ranked next-to-last in the NL. San Francisco's staff ERA (2.92) was also nearly a full run ahead of the Dodgers (3.88).

Furcal is battling a wrist injury that had him out of the Dodgers lineup both Saturday and Sunday. Giants outfielder Andres Torres is dealing with an Achilles injury that he suffered in Saturday's win against the Cardinals. He is not expected to be in the lineup on Monday and possibly longer.

Partly cloudy skies are in the Bay Area forecast for Monday with a 20 percent chance of rain. First pitch should find the thermometer a humid 52ºF with west winds at 12-14 mph (in from center).

The series continues Tuesday with a battle of right-handers, Chad Billingsley for LA and Tim Lincecum for San Fran. Wednesday's series finale is expected to match southpaws Ted Lilly and Jonathan Sanchez on the hill.

San Francisco and Los Angeles next face each other in a two-game series at Dodger Stadium on May 18-19.

NOTE: Win-loss records shown for starting pitchers are their team's record in their starts unless otherwise noted.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:50 PM

NBA Odds: Memphis at Portland Trail Blazers

Memphis and Portland have split their two previous meetings this season.
The battle for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference is on come Tuesday night from the Rose Garden, as the Portland Trail Blazers play host to the Memphis Grizzlies. This crucial NBA betting tilt on Tuesday is slated for a 7:00 p.m. (PT) tip time.

These two teams are separated by just one game with two to play, which makes this battle all the more important. Depending on how the New Orleans Hornets fare Monday night against the Utah Jazz, one of these teams will be in a position to clinch their playoff seed.

Should the Hornets win, a loss here for Memphis would make it the No. 8 seed and put it up against the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. If the Hornets lose, a Portland victory seals up the No. 6 seed and a battle against either the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers or Oklahoma City Thunder.

Rudy Gay has been out of the lineup for almost two months now, yet the Grizzlies have found a way to persevere without him. The team is 16-7 on the NBA odds in this run without Gay, which is why Memphis has guaranteed itself the best ATS mark of the season as the only team with 50 covers on the campaign.

The Grizz are 19-8 over the course of their last 27 games overall as well, and that's why they are in the playoffs once and for all and have a shot to make a huge statement this season.

Injuries and suspensions have plagued Memphis this season, as Mike Conley Jr. is the only man that has played in all 80 games to date, but we know that this has only made it a stronger bunch. A number of different players can step up on the average night to succeed, something that a lot of teams cannot really preach.

Zach Randolph is the leader of the bunch at 20.1 PPG and 12.2 RPG, though Conley, Marc Gasol and OJ Mayo are all double-digit scorers as well.

Portland has the look of a contender this year, and it too has played very, very well in the second half of the season. The acquisition of Gerald Wallace was a timely one, and though he was reluctant to move out to the Western Conference from the Charlotte Bobcats, he has certainly paid huge dividends.

Wallace is averaging 15.9 PPG and 7.8 RPG since the trade, and is one of three players averaging at least 15 points per game. Portland also has Andre Miller, Brandon Roy and Nicolas Batum all averaging at least a dozen points per game.

Keep a close eye on LaMarcus Aldridge. He'll be matched up with Randolph quite a bit in the paint. The former University of Texas standout has been huge this year on both sides of the court, and he is a real grinder that can make a difference in the paint. He's good for 21.8 PPG and 8.7 RPG, and has helped out defensively as well with nearly 100 steals and blocks combined on the campaign.

The NBA trends in this one are strong for both teams. The Grizzlies are 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games overall, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 on the road. Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.

This is the third and final meeting of the year. Memphis won 86-73 and lost 100-99 in the two previous encounters this year, both of which came at the FedEx Forum.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:54 PM

Weekly Notes - West

April 10, 2011

(Straight-Up, Against the Spread, Over/Under)

1) San Antonio (61-19, 44-34-2, 45-35)

Weekly Recap: The Spurs rebounded from six straight losses by winning four in a row, including victories over the Hawks, Kings, and Jazz this past week. Gregg Popovich's team locked up home-court advantage throughout the playoffs as the Spurs have now cashed the 'over' in nine of the last 10 games.

Weekly Outlook: There's not much to play for the final two games of the season as the Spurs battle the Lakers at Staples Center on Tuesday, followed by a trip to Phoenix on Wednesday to take on the Suns.

2) L.A. Lakers (56-24, 37-42-1, 30-50)

Weekly Recap: The Lakers are struggling at the wrong time after dropping each of their last five games. Los Angeles' offense isn't faring much better by getting held to 90 points or less in each loss, including three bad defeats to the Jazz, Warriors, and Blazers.

Weekly Outlook: The Purple and Gold hosts the Spurs in a potential Western Conference Finals preview on Tuesday, while heading up I-5 for likely their final trip to Sacramento on Wednesday against the Kings.

3) Dallas (55-25, 42-36-2, 45-34-1)

Weekly Recap: Rick Carlisle's team was nearly suffering the same fate as the Lakers with four consecutive losses, but bounced back with a nice second-half rally over the Clippers. In the win over L.A., Dallas eclipsed the 100-point mark for the first time in five games.

Weekly Outlook: The Mavs battle a pair of division opponents to finish the regular season by heading to Houston on Monday, followed by a home contest against the Hornets on Wednesday.

4) Oklahoma City (54-26, 42-37-1, 43-37)

Weekly Recap: The Thunder took care of business with a pair of victories over the Nuggets, their potential opponent in the first round of the playoffs. Oklahoma City failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a revenge win over the Clippers at home, evening the season series at two games apiece.

Weekly Outlook: Oklahoma City plays the back-end of two games in California with a trip to Sacramento on Monday as both teams will be unrested. The Thunder hosts the Bucks on Wednesday, as Oklahoma City still has a shot at grabbing the third seed in the Western Conference.

5) Denver (49-31, 42-34-4, 36-42-2)

Weekly Recap: The Nuggets went 2-2 SU/ATS with a pair of losses to the Thunder, while taking care of the Mavs and Wolves. For a team that seemed like a run-and-gun squad, Saturday's 'over' against Minnesota was the first for Denver in nine games.

Weekly Outlook: Denver hosts unrested Golden State on Monday, as the Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS the last nine home games against teams on the second of a back-to-back. The Nuggets head to Utah on Wednesday to close the regular season as Denver goes for its third win in the season series.

6) Portland (47-33, 42-35-3, 37-42-1)

Weekly Recap: The Blazers have no been no fools in April with a 4-1 SU/ATS mark with the only loss coming in an ugly home setback to the Warriors. Portland took care of the Jazz and Lakers on consecutive days, while limited each team to less than 87 points.

Weekly Outlook: Portland ends the regular season with a back-to-back set against Memphis (Tuesday) and at Golden State (Wednesday), as the Grizzlies will look to avoid getting the eighth seed in the Western Conference.

7) Memphis (46-34, 51-28-1, 39-41)

Weekly Recap: The Grizzlies are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2006 after edging Sacramento on Friday, 101-96. Memphis has cashed the 'under' in five of the last six games, while going 9-2 ATS the last 11 games to own the best ATS mark in the league.

Weekly Outlook: Memphis hits the road for the final two games of the season with a back-to-back set against the Blazers (Tuesday) and Clippers (Wednesday), as the Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS on the highway since late January.

8) New Orleans (46-34, 39-39-2, 30-50)

Weekly Recap: The Hornets have come together following the season-ending injury to David West by winning and covering five of the last seven games. Since getting blown out at New York on March 2, New Orleans is 10-6-1 ATS the previous 17 contests.

Weekly Outlook: New Orleans tries to improve its seeding with a home contest against struggling Utah on Monday, followed by a Wednesday trip to Dallas.

9) Houston (42-38, 42-36-2, 40-40)

Weekly Recap: The Rockets fell short of the playoffs for the second straight season, but Houston will finish over .500 for the fifth consecutive season. Rick Adelman's club dropped consecutive contests to the Kings and Hornets, followed by a home blowout of the Clippers.

Weekly Outlook: Houston will try to trip up its cross-state rivals at the Toyota Center against Dallas on Monday, while finishing off the season at Minnesota on Wednesday.

10) Phoenix (38-42, 36-41-3, 40-40)

Weekly Recap: The Suns will miss the playoffs just one season after making the Western Conference Finals after a multitude of injuries and trades throughout the season. A five-game road trip wasn't friendly to the Suns, for the exception of a favorite win at Minnesota, but Phoenix did manage a cover as double-digit 'dogs at Chicago.

Weekly Outlook: Phoenix returns home from its five-game road trip for a pair of contests against Minnesota (Monday) and San Antonio (Wednesday), as the Suns are 3-6 ATS the last nine home contests.

11) Utah (37-43, 33-45-2, 41-39)

Weekly Recap: The Jazz pulled off one of the biggest underdog victories of the season by cashing outright as 13 ½-point road 'dogs in an 86-85 triumph over the Lakers. Utah couldn't capitalize on that upset by dropping a pair of games to Portland and San Antonio, even though the Jazz covered as 10-point 'dogs in a nine-point loss to the Spurs.

Weekly Outlook: Tyrone Corbin's team can play spoiler (for seed purposes) in the Western Conference race by knocking off New Orleans on Monday, as the Hornets still have a shot at the seventh seed. The Jazz wrap up the season at home on Wednesday against the Nuggets.

12) Golden State (35-45, 39-40-1, 35-45)

Weekly Recap: The Warriors took several positive steps forward this season, but Golden State has qualified for the postseason just once since 1994. Golden State has won three consecutive games, capped off by a solid home underdog win on national TV over the Lakers.

Weekly Outlook: Keith Smart's club is riding a 5-2 ATS streak as they head to Denver on Monday, followed by the home finale on Wednesday against Porltand.

13) L.A. Clippers (31-50, 37-43-1, 40-40-1)

Weekly Recap: The Clippers will finish with their most wins since 2007 (40) as the team made nice strides following a 1-13 start. However, the Clips stumbled on their four-game road trip after upending Memphis with losses at Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Houston.

Weekly Outlook: Los Angeles has only one game left on the schedule when Memphis invades Staples Center on Wednesday as the Clips are 1-6 ATS the last seven home games.

14) Sacramento (24-56, 37-41-2, 43-37)

Weekly Recap: The final days for the Kings in Northern California are coming up this week with the rumors of the team moving to Anaheim next season. Sacramento started the season poorly at 5-23, but played its best basketball over the final three weeks with a 6-4 mark, including road wins at Indiana, Philadelphia, and Houston.

Weekly Outlook: The Kings play the last two games of the season at the arena formerly known as Arco against the Thunder (Monday) and Lakers (Wednesday).

15) Minnesota (17-63, 35-45, 38-42)

Weekly Recap: The Wolves have lost 13 straight games after Saturday's disastrous performance against Denver by giving up 130 points. Granted, Kevin Love has been out seven of the last nine games with a groin injury, but Minnesota has covered just five games during this skid.

Weekly Outlook: Minnesota heads to Phoenix on Tuesday, followed by a Wednesday meeting against Houston, as the Wolves have just one win in five matchups against these clubs.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:56 PM

Triple Exposure

April 11, 2011

With the NBA regular season drawing to the finish line, and while we await the start of the 2011 NBA playoffs, let examine a favorite handicapping ploy that has served me well over the years at this stage of the campaign.

It all centers around teams concluding the season that will be playing with same season triple-revenge. This particular handicap works for two reasons. One…

Trips Is Enough

The fact of the matter is it’s not easy for one team to take another out four times in a row during the same season, especially during the late, late stages of the season.

According to our database, since 1991, teams playing with same season triple revenge are 57-100 SU and 84-65-1 ATS during the final two games of the season. That’s a sharp 56.3% win percentage for these hungry rats.

Better yet, dress them up as dogs in these games and they improve to 68-49-1 ATS, a 58.1% winning level.

The other reason these triple revenging dogs bark loud is complacency. Thus, reason two is…

Playing Down To The Level Of The Opposition

Most teams that have managed to triple up one opponent over the course of the season are either playoff bound or ultra-confident, whereas the victims are busy making tee-times.

Thus these opponents often times find themselves playing down to the level of the thrice-beaten opponent.

And if these season-ending triple revengers were dogs of eight or more points in their previous game they are a super-sharp 28-11 ATS in these games.

FYI: there is an eye-opening 17-1 ATS winning angle inside the 28-11 situation outlined above. I’ll save that beauty and reveal the parameters when and if any such situations arise this week inside one of my Guaranteed Best Bet selections.

Mark Them Down

Meanwhile, here are the six teams that will close out the 2011 season looking to avenge hat-trick defeats:

4/11 – Houston, Sacramento and Toronto
4/13 – New York, Phoenix and Toronto

Don’t trip up. Keep an eye on them and act accordingly

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 04:58 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

April 11, 2011

Editor's Note: Vince Akins' pro baseball selections can be purchased daily on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The White Sox are 7-0 since June 22, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $750.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The White Sox are 10-0 OU since June 27, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 8-0 since May 13, 2010 when Justin Verlander starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $820.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cubs are 0-17-2 O/U since May 19, 2009 as a road favorite and it is the first game of the series.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Mariners are 6-0 since June 03, 2010 when Felix Hernandez starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $675.
The Reds are 0-6 since July 26, 2010 as a road dog and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.
The Giants are 6-0 since August 19, 2010 after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $750.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-11-2011, 05:22 PM

MLB

Monday, April 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +141 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -105 500
NY Mets - Under 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -125 500
Houston - Under 8.5 500

Oakland - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -118 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

St. Louis - 9:40 PM ET Arizona +109 500
Arizona - Over 9.5 500

Cleveland - 10:05 PM ET Cleveland +119 500
LA Angels - Over 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 10:05 PM ET Cincinnati +110 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Toronto - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -171 500
Seattle - Over 6.5 500

LA Dodgers - 10:15 PM ET LA Dodgers -101 500
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------
NBA

Monday, April 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Boston -7 500
Washington - Over 191 500

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -2 500
New Jersey - Over 197 500

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -2 500
Philadelphia - Under 191 500

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami -6.5 500
Atlanta - Under 191.5 500

Cleveland - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland +7 500
Detroit - Over 211 500

Toronto - 8:00 PM ET Toronto +9 500
Milwaukee - Under 200.5 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -7 500
New Orleans - Under 193.5 500

Dallas - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -2.5 500
Houston - Under 204 500

Golden State - 9:00 PM ET Denver -12 500
Denver - Under 216.5 500

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota +9 500
Phoenix - Over 219.5 500

Oklahoma City - 10:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -5.5 500
Sacramento - Over 208.5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Monday's "Best Bets " MLB-NBA !!

The Bum's Monday's "Best Bets " MLB-NBA !!

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