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**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:07 AM

MLB Betting Preview: Indians at Seattle Mariners

Heading into the weekend, the ’under’ cashed six of the last nine games between the Tribe and Mariners.
The surprising Cleveland Indians, fresh off a three-game sweep of Boston, will try and win their second straight series when they take on the Seattle Mariners this Saturday night in the second of a three-game weekend set.

Game time from Safeco Field in Seattle is set for 6:10 p.m. (PT) and it will be available on MLB.TV. The weather forecast for Saturday night is not great with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in upper 40s, so expect the roof to be shut.

Sportsinteraction.com listed Cleveland at plus 1800 to win the AL Central this season, but do not tell that to the Indians after a 4-2 start has them tied with Chicago for the early lead in the division. Granted, 156 games remain on the schedule, but so far Cleveland has been solid at the plate with 32 runs and a team batting average of .264.

The Indians, however, have been less impressive on the mound with a 4.83 team ERA.

Right-hander Justin Masterson will make his second start of the season for Cleveland on Saturday. He was solid in his first outing of the year with a win against the White Sox. Masterson went seven full innings and gave up seven hits and one earned run to get the decision.

Last year he went 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA in 29 starts and had a WHIP of 1.5. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.16 in his career against the Mariners.

Seattle has held true to its plus 2000 odds to win the AL West with a 2-4 start that has it tied with Oakland for last place in the division. There is still a long way to go, but some of the same problems that plagued this team last season are already starting to rear their ugly head this year.

Mariners pitching has been respectable but nothing special with a team ERA of 3.78, and the lineup has struggled at the plate with a .233 team batting average. Their 21 runs scored is ranked 11th in the American League.

Doug Fister will be on the mound for Seattle in his second start of the year. He got smacked around by the Athletics in his first start; giving up eight hits and two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.

He was 6-14 in 2010 with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.28 in 28 starts. Fister has a career ERA of 3.64 at Safeco Field versus 4.86 on the road and is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.63 against Cleveland.

Head-to-head, the Indians have won three of the last five games against the M's, but the series is tied at two games apiece in the last four games in Seattle. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last nine meetings.

Masterson lasted six innings in his only start against Seattle last season and gave up just one hit and no earned runs in a 9-1 romp. Fister lost his only start against the Indians after giving up seven hits and four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Cleveland should come into this game as a slight road underdog, but remains a solid pick with the edge in both pitching and hitting tilting in their favor against the Mariners.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:08 AM

MLB Odds: Chicago Cubs battle Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Narveson is 3-0 with a 3.66 ERA against the Chicago Cubs for his career.
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers play the second baseball betting game of their three-game set on Saturday night and MLB Network will be televising the game. The pitching matchup has right-hander Matt Garza going for the Cubs while the Brewers counter with left-hander Chris Narveson.

Check out the current line for this game at *** Global.com.

Milwaukee started the season poorly getting swept at Cincinnati, but the Brewers have played better on this current homestand. This will be the sixth game of a 7-game homestand that ends on Sunday.

The Cubs started the season by splitting their first six games at home. This game is the second of a 9-game road trip for Chicago.

Garza was in line for the win in his first start of the MLB betting season for the Cubs last Sunday, but closer Carlos Marmol blew the save and the Cubs lost 5-4 to the Pirates. Garza had a weird line as he struck out a career-high 12 batters but he also gave up a career-high 12 hits, all of which were singles.

The 12 strikeouts were the most ever by a Cubs pitcher in his first start with the team.

Narveson had a similar fate as Garza in his first start of the season. He threw six scoreless innings on Monday against the Braves before Takashi Saito blew a 1-0 lead and the Brewers lost 2-1 to the Braves on Monday. Narveson is a perfect 3-0 in his career against the Cubs with a 3.66 ERA.

Before this series began, the Cubs had won 11 of the last 20 games between the two teams. It has been somewhat of a road-team series as Chicago has won six of the last 10 in Milwaukee.

The games have also been low scoring for the most part with the 'under' going 6-3-1 in the last 10 at Milwaukee, including the final three last betting season.

The Cubs have had a lot of success recently against left-handers, winning eight of their last nine. Five of their last seven games vs. southpaws have gone 'over' the total.

Milwaukee goes the other way when facing a right-handed starter as the 'under' is 16-6 in the Brewers' last 22 games against a righty.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:09 AM

NBA Betting Preview: Spurs host Utah Jazz

Eight of the last 10 Jazz, Spurs meetings have skipped ’over’ the total.
The San Antonio Spurs still have something important to play for as they host the Utah Jazz on Saturday night.

NBA will have the 5:30 p.m. (PT) broadcast from the AT&T Center.

San Antonio (60-19 straight-up, 44-33-2 against the spread) clinched home-court throughout the West playoffs with a 124-92 Wednesday home win over Sacramento, coupled with a L.A. Lakers loss later that night.

The 216 combined points scored went ‘over’ the big 211-point total. The ‘over’ is 8-1 in San Antonio’s last nine games.

Coach Gregg Popovich still wants like to finish ahead of Chicago (58-20) for home-court throughout the entire playoffs, but he doesn’t want to burn out his key players.

Manu Ginobili (quad), Tim Duncan (ankle) and Tony Parker (knee) all had recent ailments, but have helped the Spurs go 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three contests. They were 0-6 SU in their previous six (2-4 ATS), with injuries a big factor.

Popovich’s plan is likely to limit his stars to around 25-30 minutes per game. He’s done a great job keeping minutes down all year thanks to one of the league’s deepest benches. Guys like George Hill (11.7 PPG) are more than capable of increased time with little drop-off in production.

The Jazz (37-42 SU, 32-45-2 ATS) will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2005-2006. This will also be just their second year finishing below .500 since 1982-83.

Utah has been a team in transition since the resignation of coach Jerry Sloan and the trade of star point guard Deron Williams to New Jersey. Former assistant Ty Corbin inherited a squad that was 31-23 SU (24-29-1 ATS), but has bottomed out at 6-19 SU (8-16-1 ATS) since. At least his job is safe after signing an extension.

Corbin’s crew last played Portland on Thursday night, losing 98-87 as 5 ½-point home ‘dogs. Devin Harris, the point guard acquired back from New Jersey, had 26 points after returning from a seven-game absence (hamstring).

Utah is just 1-9 SU in its last 10 games (3-6-1 ATS). The one win was a shocking 86-85 victory at the Lakers this past Tuesday as 13 ½-point underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games. The defense is only allowing 96.5 PPG in that span, compared to 101.4 PPG on the season (ranked 19th). The offense has also taken a nosedive the last six (87.8 PPG) versus the season average (99.4 PPG, ranked 15th).

This will never be a great defensive team with Al Jefferson playing center and Paul Millsap at power forward as both are undersized for their positions. However, it’s good to at least see some effort at that end after really struggling in the early part of Corbin’s regime.

Rookie Gordon Hayward has gotten more playing time lately with Andrei Kirilenko (knee) out indefinitely. Hayward must have been inspired by his former Butler teammates as he’s averaging 17 PPG over the last three.

In addition to Kirilenko (11.7 PPG), Utah has starting guard Raja Bell (8.0 PPG) expected to miss his fifth straight contest with a foot injury. This is a starting lineup and rotation that’s in flux almost every game.

San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.

Utah has struggled against better competition, 5-21-1 ATS in its last 27 games against teams with winning SU records.

San Antonio is 2-0 SU and ATS in the first two meetings between the teams, both in Utah (94-82 and 112-105). The ‘over’ went 1-1 and is 8-2 overall in the last 10 matchups.

Utah is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in San Antonio.

Both teams have two games remaining after this one. Utah is at New Orleans next on Monday, while San Antonio visits the Lakers on Tuesday.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:10 AM

Canucks at Calgary Flames for NHL odds clash

The Canucks have taken four of the five matchups against the Flames.
The National Hockey League’s regular season concludes this weekend, and two Canadian teams face vastly different futures. Vancouver (53-19-4-5) is armed with the league’s best record, and has already clinched the Presidents’ Trophy for the best regular-season record.

Now the Canucks are gearing up for the postseason in an effort to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since the 1992-93 Montreal Canadiens.

Calgary (41-29-4-7) has been eliminated from the playoffs despite entering this contest with a +14 scoring differential on the season. The Flames have scored 248 goals this year, while yielding 234. CBC will provide coverage of Saturday’s contest beginning at 7:00 p.m. PT from Calgary’s Scotiabank Saddledome.

Vancouver snapped a two-game losing streak by blanking Minnesota Thursday as decided 235 home ‘chalk,’ 5-0. The combined five goals landed directly on the closing total, ending a string of eight consecutive ‘under’ outings.

Ryan Kesler recorded a hat trick in the victory, ending a scoring drought that saw him score just once in nine previous games. Mason Raymond also scored a pair of goals, while Daniel Sedin contributed with two assists. Kesler has reached the 40-goal plateau for the first time in his career, while Sedin leads the league with 102 points.

Goaltender Roberto Luongo stonewalled 29 shots to record his fourth shutout of the season. Vancouver prevailed despite trailing the Wild in faceoffs won, 29-25, and shots on goal, 29-28.

Calgary is entering its season finale riding a three-game winning streak after skating past Edmonton Wednesday as a huge 290 home favorite, 6-1. The combined seven goals eclipsed the 5 ½-goal closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘under’ outings.

Jarome Iginla recorded a hat trick while also delivering an assist, but the Flames were eliminated from the postseason when Chicago and Anaheim both won their games. Alex Tanguay had a goal and two assists in the victory, while Rene Bouque and Curtis Glencross also scored.

Goalie Miikka Kiprusoff had 22 saves, while Mikael Backlund chipped in with three assists. Calgary finished the contest with sizeable advantages in faceoffs won, 34-23, and shots on goal, 47-23.

Vancouver is 4-1 against Calgary this season, and the Flames' lone victory occurred in a shootout. The Canucks prevailed Dec. 1 as a 127 road ‘chalk,’ 7-2, Jan. 5 as a 199 home favorite, 3-1, Feb. 12 as a 221 home ‘chalk,’ 4-2, and March 12 as a 121 road favorite, 4-3. Calgary upended the Canucks Jan. 22 as a 222 road underdog, 4-3. The ‘over’ is 5-1 the past six games in this series, and 18-6-5 the previous 29 meetings.

Vancouver defenseman Dan Hamhuis (concussion) is ‘questionable’ versus the Flames, while left wing Raffi Torres (suspension) and center Rick Rypien (personal) are ‘out.’ Calgary right wing Niklas Hagman (concussion) is ‘questionable’ against the Canucks, while left wing Fredrik Modin (back) and left wing David Moss (ankle) are ‘out.’

Vancouver is 22-7 its last 29 road games, while the ‘under’ is 18-7-1 the past 26 games overall. Calgary has seen the ‘over’ go 8-1 its previous nine matchups against Northwest Division opponents, and the ‘over’ is 18-7-1 its past 26 outings overall.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:12 AM

Saturday's MLB Tip Sheet

April 8, 2011

Stats used in this column for Red Sox-Yankees do include Friday’s results but stats for Braves-Phillies do NOT include results from Friday’s action.

The marathon MLB season is only in its early stages, but the Yankees and Phillies would love nothing more than to start developing some separation between their expected challengers, the Red Sox and Braves, respectively. Let’s take a look at the Saturday afternoon matchups (1:10 p.m. Eastern) between these division rivals.

**Phillies at Braves**

--Philadelphia (5-1, +319) swept Houston in a three-game series to open the season. Next, the Phillies dropped a series opener against the Mets before taking the final two games of the three-game set at home.

--On Thursday, Charlie Manuel’s team thumped New York by an 11-0 count as an expensive favorite. Wilson Valdez went 4-for-4 with a pair of doubles, three runs scored and three runs batted in. Veteran third baseman Placido Palanco had a pair of hits and four RBIs. Roy Halladay (1-0, 0-69 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings, scattering six hits while fanning seven batters.

--Atlanta (3-4, -148) scored just eight runs in a four-game series at Milwaukee that wrapped up Thursday afternoon at Miller Park. After winning Monday’s lid-lifter 2-1 over the Brewers thanks to an eighth-inning rally, the Braves dropped three in a row, including Thursday’s 4-2 decision. Martin Prado had a two-run RBI, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla both went 2-for-3. However, Fredi Gonzalez’s squad stranded eight base runners.

--Atlanta rookie RHP Brandon Beachy (0-0, 1.50) will get his fifth career start Saturday. He has already faced the Phillies twice, giving up three earned runs in 10 innings of work last season. In his debut this year, Beachy worked six strong innings, giving up just four hits and one earned run while striking out seven in a 2-1 win at Milwaukee.

--Manuel will give the starting nod to veteran RHP Roy Oswalt, who faced his former team for the first time this past Sunday. Oswalt (1-0, 3.00) went six innings in a 7-3 win vs. Houston. He struck out six Astros and gave up a pair of runs and five hits.

--Atlanta veteran third baseman Chipper Jones was given a rest Thursday after going 2-for-4 in Wednesday’s 5-4 loss at Milwaukee. Jones is 8-for-25 with three doubles and a .320 batting average to date.

--The ‘over’ has been a steady money maker in Philadelphia games so far, cashing at a 5-0-1 clip. Meanwhile, the Braves have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2-1.

--Philadelphia won 10 of the 18 head-to-head meetings between these clubs in 2010. The ‘under’ went 10-7-1.

--As of early Friday night, most betting shops had this game listed as a pick ‘em with a total of 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-115).

**Yankees at Red Sox**

--Boston (1-6, -739) belatedly got into the win column Friday afternoon with a 9-6 win in its home opener at Fenway Park. The Red Sox cashed tickets as a minus-135 favorite, hooking up run-line backers with a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145). Dustin Pedroia belted a solo homer in the first and finished with three hits and three RBIs. The bullpen worked four scoreless innings and Jonathan Papelbon picked up the save with a perfect ninth inning.

--Terry Francona’s club started the season by getting swept at Texas and at Cleveland. The BoSox scored just five runs in three games against the Indians. Carl Crawford, the club’s key off-season acquisition, is off to a slow start with an abysmal .143 batting average to date.

--New York (4-3, -63) took two of three from both the Tigers and Twins in the Bronx to start the season. The bats were extremely productive, producing 35 runs in the teams’ first six outings. Alex Rodriguez is hitting .304 so far and he stroked his third homer in Friday’s loss.

--New York RHP Ivan Nova (1-0, 4.50) went six innings and picked up the victory in a 4-3 win over Minnesota on Monday. Nova made 10 appearances last season, seven of which were starts, posting a 1-2 record with a 4.50 ERA. He faced Boston once, giving up four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work.

--Francona will give the ball to Clay Buchholz (0-1, 5.68), who got knocked around in a 5-1 loss at Texas last Sunday. The right-hander owns a 1-2 record and 5.79 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.

--The ‘over’ is 5-2 in New York’s first seven games, 4-3 for Boston.

--These bitter AL East rivals split 18 head-to-head meetings in 2010. The ‘over’ went 12-4-2 in those encounters. With yesterday’s game easily jumping above the total, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six of the last seven between these squads.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:36 AM

Saturday, April 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 1:10 PM ET Boston -147 500
Boston - Over 10 500

Philadelphia - 1:10 PM ET Atlanta -109 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 4:10 PM ET Tampa Bay +105 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 4:10 PM ET Kansas City +164 500
Detroit - Under 9.5 500

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Florida -106 500
Houston - Over 8.5 500

Colorado - 7:05 PM ET Colorado +103 500
Pittsburgh - Over 9 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +122 500
NY Mets - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Oakland -101 500
Minnesota - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +100 500
Milwaukee - Under 8.5 500

Texas - 7:35 PM ET Baltimore -103 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Cincinnati - 8:10 PM ET Arizona -102 500
Arizona - Over 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 8:35 PM ET San Diego +107 500
San Diego - Under 7 500

Toronto - 9:05 PM ET Toronto -102 500
LA Angels - Over 9 500

Cleveland - 9:10 PM ET Seattle -116 500
Seattle - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 10:05 PM ET San Francisco -152 500
San Francisco Over 6.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 03:54 AM

Saturday, April 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 12:30 PM ET New Jersey +160 500
NY Rangers - Under 5 500

Ottawa - 1:00 PM ET Ottawa +189 500
Boston - Under 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:37 AM

Trending: NBA East head-to-head playoff records

With the 2011 NBA Playoffs set to begin on Saturday, April 16, we have already begun our postseason betting preparations. In this column, we take a look at the eight teams that have clinched playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and show what they have done head-to-head (including playoffs) over the past four seasons. We have also included three playoff trends for each team. All records are through Thursday, April 7.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* ATLANTA is on a 2-19 SU & ATS (10%) skid in road playoff games, 12-7-1 ATS (63%) at home.
* ATLANTA is just 4-22-1 ATS (15%) in its past 27 playoff games as an underdog.
* ATLANTA is 16-7 UNDER (70%) in its past 23 playoff games, eclipsing the 93-point mark just six times.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. BOSTON: 8-13 SU, 11-10 ATS, 10-11 O-U
vs. CHICAGO: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS, 9-5 O-U
vs. INDIANA: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. MIAMI: 12-10 SU, 10-12 ATS, 7-15 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. NEW YORK: 8-7 SU, 5-10 ATS, 9-6 O-U
vs. ORLANDO: 7-13 SU, 8-12 ATS, 5-15 O-U
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O-U

BOSTON CELTICS

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* BOSTON is on a profitable 15-8-1 ATS (65%) run in road playoff games.
* BOSTON is just 4-11 ATS (27%) in its past 15 postseason games when favored by at least six points.
* The UNDER was 9-2-1 (82%) in BOSTON’s 12 home playoff games last year, including 7-0-1 in the final eight home playoff games.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 13-8 SU, 10-11 ATS, 10-11 O-U
vs. CHICAGO: 14-7 SU, 12-8 ATS, 13-6 O-U
vs. INDIANA: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, 5-9 O-U
vs. MIAMI: 17-2 SU, 14-5 ATS, 10-8 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. NEW YORK: 13-2 SU, 8-6 ATS, 9-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. ORLANDO: 13-14 SU, 14-12 ATS, 8-18 O-U
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 13-3 SU, 8-7 ATS, 7-8 O-U

CHICAGO BULLS

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* Dating back to '06, CHICAGO is on a 16-7 OVER (70%) the total run in the postseason.
* CHICAGO has been better on the road (9-5-1 ATS, 64%) than at home (5-7-1 ATS, 42%) in the past five years of the playoffs.
* CHICAGO is 13-7-1 ATS (65%) & 14-7 OVER (67%) the total in its past 21 playoff games as an underdog.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS, 9-5 O-U
vs. BOSTON: 7-14 SU, 8-12 ATS, 13-6 O-U
vs. INDIANA: 10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-7 O-U
vs. MIAMI: 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 4-10 O-U
vs. NEW YORK: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS, 5-8 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. ORLANDO: 4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS, 4-10 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 11-4 O-U

INDIANA PACERS

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* INDIANA ends a four-year postseason drought after making the playoffs for nine straight years from 1998 to 2006.
* The UNDER is 12-7 (63%) in the past 19 playoff games for INDIANA.
* INDIANA is just 3-9 ATS (25%) in its past 12 home playoff games.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS, 6-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. BOSTON: 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O-U
vs. CHICAGO: 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS, 8-7 O-U
vs. MIAMI: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 O-U
vs. NEW YORK: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS, 6-8 O-U
vs. ORLANDO: 3-10 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 9-5 SU, 9-4 ATS, 3-11 O-U

MIAMI HEAT

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* Since winning the title in '06, MIAMI is just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS (31%) in the postseason.
* MIAMI has gone UNDER the total in 18 of its past 28 (64%) playoff games.
* MIAMI is on an incredible run of 36-12-1 ATS (75%) when eclipsing the 90-point mark in a playoff game.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 10-12 SU, 12-10 ATS, 7-15 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. BOSTON: 2-17 SU, 5-14 ATS, 10-8 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. CHICAGO: 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 4-10 O-U
vs. INDIANA: 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 O-U
vs. NEW YORK: 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-7 O-U
vs. ORLANDO: 5-11 SU, 6-9 ATS, 9-7 O-U
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-8 O-U

NEW YORK KNICKS

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* NEW YORK hasn’t played in the postseason since 2004 and it hasn’t won a playoff game outright since April 29, 2001 at Toronto, going 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) since that victory.
* Since reaching the 1999 NBA Finals, NEW YORK is 8-15-2 ATS (35%) overall and 2-8 ATS (20%) as a favorite in the postseason.
* The OVER is 7-2 (78%) in the past nine NEW YORK playoff games.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS, 9-6 O-U
vs. BOSTON: 2-13 SU, 6-8 ATS, 9-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. CHICAGO: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS, 5-8 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. INDIANA: 5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS, 6-8 O-U
vs. MIAMI: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7 O-U
vs. ORLANDO: 3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS, 11-4 O-U
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 5-11 O-U

ORLANDO MAGIC

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* ORLANDO is 29-16-1 UNDER (64%) the total in its past 46 playoff games overall.
* ORLANDO is just 6-29 SU (17%) and 8-25-2 ATS (24%) in its past 35 playoff games in which it failed to reach 95 points.
* Upsets are rare for ORLANDO as a playoff underdog of at least four points. The Magic have gone 4-20 SU (17%) and 9-13-2 ATS (41%) since 1999.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 13-7 SU, 12-8 ATS, 5-15 O-U
vs. BOSTON: 14-13 SU, 12-14 ATS, 8-18 O-U
vs. CHICAGO: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 4-10 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. INDIANA: 10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-6 O-U (1 game remaining)
vs. MIAMI: 11-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-7 O-U
vs. NEW YORK: 12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS, 11-4 O-U
vs. PHILADELPHIA: 16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS, 10-10 O-U (1 game remaining)

PHILADELPHIA 76ers

Top ******* Team Playoff Power Trends
* PHILADELPHIA hasn’t won a playoff series since 2003. Since that series victory, the 76ers are 7-16 SU (30%) and 10-11-2 ATS (48%) overall.
* PHILADELPHIA has been better at home (6-4-1 ATS, 60%) than on the road (4-7-1 ATS, 36%) in these past four playoff series.
* In the past three PHILADELPHIA playoff seasons the UNDER is 11-5-1 (69%).

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes
(past four seasons including playoffs)
vs. ATLANTA: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O-U
vs. BOSTON: 3-13 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 O-U
vs. CHICAGO: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS, 11-4 O-U
vs. MIAMI: 5-9 SU, 8-6 ATS, 5-8 O-U
vs. INDIANA: 5-9 SU, 4-9 ATS, 3-11 O-U
vs. NEW YORK: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS, 5-11 O-U
vs. ORLANDO: 4-16 SU, 8-12 ATS, 10-10 O-U (1 game remaining)

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:38 AM

A's-Twins hope to wake up bats on Saturday

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (2-5)

at MINNESOTA TWINS (3-4)

First pitch: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -115, Oakland +105, Total: 8

Minnesota and Oakland are looking to get over slow starts in the second game of their three-game weekend set. The Twins won a pitcher’s duel on Friday night, with Carl Pavano holding Oakland to one run over eight innings, topping Brett Anderson’s eight-inning, two-run outing. The A’s are now 2-5 at Target Field.

Oakland will try to reverse its fortunes with lefty Gio Gonzalez on the hill Saturday night. It’s a good matchup against the Twins’ lefty-heavy lineup (Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel). Since the start of last year, lefties have hit just .220 with a .293 on-base percentage against Gonzalez. He split his two starts against Minnesota last year, allowing two runs in seven innings in a home win in June, then four runs (but only two earned) in a loss at Target Field in August.

Gonzalez was good in his season debut, allowing one run over seven innings against Seattle. He did allow six hits and four walks though, and a better lineup might have been able to take advantage. Since the start of last year, he’s gone 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA in Oakland, but is only 7-6 with a 3.92 ERA on the road.

The Twins will counter with Nick Blackburn. The righty has been right at home at Target Field. Going back to last season, he’s 7-3 with a 3.65 ERA over 13 home starts (as opposed to a 6.96 road ERA as a starter), with the Twins going 9-4 in those Target Field starts.

Blackburn has never fared well against the A’s though. In seven career starts, he’s 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA against Oakland, and the Twins have lost all seven of those meeting. On top of that, he’s been absolutely torched by one of Oakland’s newest additions, David DeJesus. In 24 career plate appearances, DeJesus is hitting .524 with a .583 on-base percentage and .857 slugging percentage against Blackburn.

Blackburn did manage to hold his own against Oakland at Target Field last September, limiting the A’s to three runs over seven innings in a 3-1 loss.

Considering Blackburn’s respectable track record at home, combined with Minnesota’s .654 winning percentage at Target Field, and the fact that the money line is close to even, my pick is Minnesota. The FoxSheets show a three-star trend working against the A’s:

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (OAKLAND) - with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season, poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. (104-76 since 1997, 57.8%, +56 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:39 AM

Cain looks to shut down Cardinals Saturday

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (2-5)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (3-4)

First pitch: Saturday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -160, St. Louis +150, Total: 6.5

Nothing has gone right for the Cardinals this year, and things won’t get any easier when they face the red-hot Matt Cain on Saturday night.

The Cards’ nightmare 2011 has included a season-ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright, an inability to sign the franchise Albert Pujols to an extension, a shockingly slow start for Pujols, an appendectomy for All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday, and then Friday night’s heartbreaking loss in San Francisco. After getting to Giants closer Brian Wilson for two runs in the top of the ninth to take a 4-3 lead, St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin coughed up that lead in the bottom of the ninth and St. Louis eventually fell in 12 innings.

Holliday is still out, and the Cards’ shorthanded lineup will have to deal with Cain. The right-hander threw six shutout innings to beat the Dodgers in his first start of the season. Dating back to last year’s postseason, Cain hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 27 1/3 innings. He made 19 home starts (including playoffs) a year ago, going 10-4 with a 2.44 ERA as the Giants went 13-6 in his home starts.

Aside from one disastrous start in St. Louis in 2008 (nine runs allowed in 3.2 innings) Cain has pitched well against the Cardinals. While the Giants have lost four of his five starts against St. Louis, that nine-run outing is the only time he’s allowed more than two runs against the Cards.

But St. Louis has a shot with Jaime Garcia on the mound. The 24-year-old southpaw tossed a shutout against the Padres in his first start of the year, and he did the same thing to the Giants last August. He made a start at San Francisco last spring, and while he came out on the short end of a 4-1 loss, Garcia allowed only two earned runs in six innings.

Garcia hasn’t been as good on the road though. Last season, he posted a 1.58 ERA in St. Louis but only 3.82 ERA on the road. While the Giants are more likely to win on Saturday night, the money line is skewed enough that I’m picking St. Louis with Garcia on the hill.

Plus, the FoxSheets have a four-star trend that plays in the Cardinals’ favor:

Play On - Road teams (ST. LOUIS) - first 12 games of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won 6+ of their last 8 games, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 54% of their games. (36-12 since 1997, 75%, +27.4 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:40 AM

Red-hot Spurs host slumping Jazz Saturday

UTAH JAZZ (37-42)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (60-19)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -12, Total: 200

Utah looks to avoid a season sweep when it travels to San Antonio for a meeting with the Spurs on Saturday night. The Jazz dropped a home meeting on Nov. 19, 94-82 and lost at home again to the Spurs on Jan. 26, by a 112-105 score.

Although the Jazz have two straight wins at AT&T Center, those were a long time coming, as Utah previously lost 18 straight SU (4-14 ATS) at San Antonio from Dec. 2001 to April 2009. Al Jefferson has made 63.6% from the floor in two meetings with San Antonio this season, but he has gone ice cold lately. In his past four games, Jefferson is shooting a dismal 20-for-59 (33.9% FG). In Thursday’s 98-87 home loss to Portland, Devin Harris returned to the lineup after being out with a hamstring injury. He had a team-high 26 points, but also committed seven turnovers.

San Antonio had lost six straight games while resting a lot of its stars, but the Spurs have dominated their past three opponents. They outscored Phoenix, Atlanta and Sacramento by an average of 18.7 PPG and outrebounded them by an average of 16.0 RPG. San Antonio shot 48%, 50% and 61% FG in the three wins. In Wednesday’s 124-92 victory over the Kings, 11 Spurs scored, led by Manu Ginobili’s 25 points. Tony Parker had a well-rounded 15 points, six rebounds and six assists in just 27 minutes of action. Parker has averaged 23.5 PPG on 63% FG in two meetings versus Utah this season.

The Jazz are just 8-15-1 ATS (35%) on the road in their past 24 games and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games as an underdog. The Spurs have been a great at putting together ATS win streaks, as they are a whopping 27-16 ATS (63%) following an ATS win this season. They are also 39-24 ATS (62%) versus Utah since 1996. I’m picking San Antonio to maintain its high level of play, and extend its win streak (both SU and ATS) on Saturday. The FoxSheets provide two highly-rated trends backing the Spurs:

UTAH is 2-15 ATS (11.8%, -14.5 Units) when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season. The average score was UTAH 95.8, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 4*).

SAN ANTONIO is 27-11 ATS (71.1%, +14.9 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.4, OPPONENT 96.2 - (Rating = 3*).

And this three-star FoxSheets trend expects a low-scoring game to finish Under the total.

SAN ANTONIO is 12-1 UNDER (92.3%, +10.9 Units) after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 95.8, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:42 AM

MLB Betting Preview: Indians at Seattle Mariners

The surprising Cleveland Indians, fresh off a three-game sweep of Boston, will try and win their second straight series when they take on the Seattle Mariners this Saturday night in the second of a three-game weekend set.

Game time from Safeco Field in Seattle is set for 6:10 p.m. (PT) and it will be available on MLB.TV. The weather forecast for Saturday night is not great with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in upper 40s, so expect the roof to be shut.

Sportsinteraction.com listed Cleveland at plus 1800 to win the AL Central this season, but do not tell that to the Indians after a 4-2 start has them tied with Chicago for the early lead in the division. Granted, 156 games remain on the schedule, but so far Cleveland has been solid at the plate with 32 runs and a team batting average of .264.

The Indians, however, have been less impressive on the mound with a 4.83 team ERA.

Right-hander Justin Masterson will make his second start of the season for Cleveland on Saturday. He was solid in his first outing of the year with a win against the White Sox. Masterson went seven full innings and gave up seven hits and one earned run to get the decision.

Last year he went 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA in 29 starts and had a WHIP of 1.5. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.16 in his career against the Mariners.

Seattle has held true to its plus 2000 odds to win the AL West with a 2-4 start that has it tied with Oakland for last place in the division. There is still a long way to go, but some of the same problems that plagued this team last season are already starting to rear their ugly head this year.

Mariners pitching has been respectable but nothing special with a team ERA of 3.78, and the lineup has struggled at the plate with a .233 team batting average. Their 21 runs scored is ranked 11th in the American League.

Doug Fister will be on the mound for Seattle in his second start of the year. He got smacked around by the Athletics in his first start; giving up eight hits and two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.

He was 6-14 in 2010 with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.28 in 28 starts. Fister has a career ERA of 3.64 at Safeco Field versus 4.86 on the road and is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.63 against Cleveland.

Head-to-head, the Indians have won three of the last five games against the M's, but the series is tied at two games apiece in the last four games in Seattle. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last nine meetings.

Masterson lasted six innings in his only start against Seattle last season and gave up just one hit and no earned runs in a 9-1 romp. Fister lost his only start against the Indians after giving up seven hits and four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Cleveland should come into this game as a slight road underdog, but remains a solid pick with the edge in both pitching and hitting tilting in their favor against the Mariners.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 11:43 AM

MLB Odds: Chicago Cubs battle Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Narveson is 3-0 with a 3.66 ERA against the Chicago Cubs for his career.
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers play the second baseball betting game of their three-game set on Saturday night and MLB Network will be televising the game. The pitching matchup has right-hander Matt Garza going for the Cubs while the Brewers counter with left-hander Chris Narveson.

Check out the current line for this game at *** Global.com.

Milwaukee started the season poorly getting swept at Cincinnati, but the Brewers have played better on this current homestand. This will be the sixth game of a 7-game homestand that ends on Sunday.

The Cubs started the season by splitting their first six games at home. This game is the second of a 9-game road trip for Chicago.

Garza was in line for the win in his first start of the MLB betting season for the Cubs last Sunday, but closer Carlos Marmol blew the save and the Cubs lost 5-4 to the Pirates. Garza had a weird line as he struck out a career-high 12 batters but he also gave up a career-high 12 hits, all of which were singles.

The 12 strikeouts were the most ever by a Cubs pitcher in his first start with the team.

Narveson had a similar fate as Garza in his first start of the season. He threw six scoreless innings on Monday against the Braves before Takashi Saito blew a 1-0 lead and the Brewers lost 2-1 to the Braves on Monday. Narveson is a perfect 3-0 in his career against the Cubs with a 3.66 ERA.

Before this series began, the Cubs had won 11 of the last 20 games between the two teams. It has been somewhat of a road-team series as Chicago has won six of the last 10 in Milwaukee.

The games have also been low scoring for the most part with the 'under' going 6-3-1 in the last 10 at Milwaukee, including the final three last betting season.

The Cubs have had a lot of success recently against left-handers, winning eight of their last nine. Five of their last seven games vs. southpaws have gone 'over' the total.

Milwaukee goes the other way when facing a right-handed starter as the 'under' is 16-6 in the Brewers' last 22 games against a righty.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-09-2011, 05:42 PM

NBA

Saturday, April 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Washington +2.5 500 (DOG OF THE DAY)
Washington - Under 201 500

Cleveland - 8:30 PM ET Cleveland +8.5 500
Milwaukee - Under 192 500

L.A. Clippers - 8:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers +8 500
Houston - Over 215.5 500

Utah - 8:30 PM ET Utah +10 500
San Antonio - Under 200.5 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Denver -13.5 500
Denver - Under 212.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------
NHL

Saturday, April 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -111 500
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +266 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington -137 500
Florida - Under 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -127 500
Columbus - Under 5.5 500

Nashville - 8:00 PM ET Nashville +100 500
St. Louis - Over 5 500

Vancouver - 10:00 PM ET Calgary +105 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Anaheim - 10:30 PM ET Anaheim +115 500
Los Angeles - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET San Jose -167 500
San Jose - Over 5 500

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