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MLB Odds: Red Sox host Yankees in home opener

Boston and New York split their 18 regular season meetings in 2010.
The Boston Red Sox nightmare start to the 2011 season doesn’t get any easier with the New York Yankees coming to town for a weekend series beginning Friday.

Boston’s home opener from Fenway Park is an early 11:05 a.m. (PT) start. The pitching matchup is John Lackey against Phil Hughes.

Manager Terry Francona’s guys are off to a horrific 0-6 start following Thursday's 1-0 defeat in frigid Cleveland. Boston was trying to avoid a second-straight sweep after starting in Texas. That wasn’t expected from the solid preseason AL favorite (plus 170).

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com aren’t pushing the panic button yet, even if Red Sox fans are. Boston is now plus 205 to win the pennant, with the Yankees (plus 250) and Texas Rangers (plus 300) drawing closer.

A dissection of Boston’s start places blame across the board. Team ERA was an MLB-worst 8.33 before Thursday's loss, with the starters (8.53) and relievers (7.98) almost equally bad.

The offense was supposed to be a juggernaut after adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to a nucleus of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz. Gonzalez (.981 OPS) has performed well, but the team is scoring just 3.2 runs per game.

Ace Jon Lester started Thursday. Lackey was a curious choice as the No. 2 starter after going 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA last year after signing from the Angels. Most thought Clay Buchholz deserved the nod or even Josh Beckett, but Francona chose Lackey, citing he was in great shape.

The 32-year-old Lackey did little to silence his critics at Texas last Saturday, allowing nine earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in a 12-5 loss. No hurler likes an ERA over 22 to start the year, but that will shrink quickly with a strong outing.

The right-hander went 11-5 at Fenway last year, but a big reason was run support with just a 4.34 ERA. He did fare pretty well against the Yankees in three starts (1-1, 3.20 ERA). The two in Fenway were six innings of shutout ball back in April (3-1 loss). He then limited them to two earned runs over 7 2/3 in October (8-4 win).

Lackey will be pitching on an extra day’s rest. He had a 5.83 ERA in that situation last year, compared to 3.83 on regular rest.

The Yankees are 3-2 pending their Thursday finale with Minnesota. The teams split the first two with Wednesday's game postponed. New York went 2-1 against Detroit in its opening series.

New York hasn’t left Yankee Stadium and the offense has exploded for 6.2 runs per game. One loss came this past Tuesday against Minnesota after Rafael Soriano and the bullpen blew a great start by C.C. Sabathia.

A main culprit in the other defeat was Hughes. He ruined a potential sweep of Detroit by surrendering five earned runs last Sunday (10-7 loss). He was pulled after four innings and 90 pitches.

Hughes’ velocity has been down since spring training and it hurt him in his first outing in addition to location. The 24-year-old righty went 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA last year, but those numbers were much more pedestrian after the All-Star break (7-6, 4.90 ERA).

Hughes was 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in five appearances against Boston last year. Only one start came at Fenway when he allowed two earned runs over seven innings last May. The Yankees won 10-3.

The Red Sox were just 46-35 at home last year (minus 6.3 units). They won 56 games there each of the prior two years. New York was 43-38 away last season.

New York went 4-1 in its first five games at Fenway last year before Boston finished 3-1 there. The ‘over’ was 8-1 in those games. The teams split 18 games overall.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

Weather should mostly sunny and in the low 50s. The pitching matchup on Saturday is Buchholz vs. Ivan Nova and it will be Beckett vs. Sabathia on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

[StarDust Bum]

LA Dodgers open MLB odds series at Padres

The Dodgers and Padres have gone ’under’ in 17 of the last 21 meetings.
National League West rivals Los Angeles and San Diego begin a three-game series with Friday’s matchup. This contest will be a battle of southpaws as the Dodgers give the starting assignment to Ted Lilly (0-1, 7.71 ERA), while the Padres’ Clayton Richard (1-0, 4.50 ERA) gets the nod.

Los Angeles enters the 2011 campaign as a 15/1 selection to win the NL pennant, while San Diego has dropped to 40/1 behind its offseason youth movement. Friday’s game is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. PT from the Padres’ Petco Park.

Lilly suffered a setback in his first outing of the year Saturday against San Francisco as a 103 home underdog, 10-0. The 10 runs went ‘over’ the seven-run closing total. The 34-year-old lasted just 4 2/3 innings on 75 pitches (52 strikes), allowing four runs on six hits with a walk and three strikeouts.

The Dodgers are now just 2-6 in Lilly’s previous eight starts. The 13-year veteran signed a $33 million, three-year contract during the offseason.

Los Angeles started the year by taking two out of three games from San Francisco before losing two of three at Colorado.

The Dodgers continue their eight-game road trip after this series with three games at San Francisco.

San Diego won Richard’s 2011 debut versus St. Louis last Saturday as a 114 road underdog, 11-3. The combined 14 runs easily eclipsed the 8 ½-run closing total. The former Michigan Wolverines hurler was reached for three runs on five hits (one home run) with two walks and three strikeouts over six innings and 96 pitches (64 strikes).

The four-year veteran also contributed at the plate with two RBIs. Richard now has nine career RBIs, executing a squeeze bunt in the second inning to tie the game at two.

The Padres continue an eight-game homestand after this series with three games against Cincinnati. San Diego has seen the ‘under’ go 14-6-2 its last 22 home games, while the ‘under’ is 6-2 the past eight outings against NL West opponents.

The Padres went 10-8 against the Dodgers last season, and concluded the season 10 games ahead of them in the standings. The ‘under’ is 17-4 the previous 21 games in this series.

Lilly had two home starts against San Diego last season, going a combined 14 innings while yielding four runs on 10 hits (one home run) with a walk and 13 strikeouts. Los Angeles prevailed as a 101 home selection, 2-1, while losing as a 121 home underdog, 3-1.

The ‘under’ prevailed in both matchups.

Richard squared off against the Dodgers three times last year, pitching a combined 20 1/3 innings, surrendering just five runs on 22 hits with six walks and 18 strikeouts. San Diego won all three games as a 105 home selection, 6-1, as a 124 road underdog, 10-5, and as a 117 road ‘dog, 6-0. The ‘under’ went 2-1 during those three outings.

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NBA Betting: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Hornets

The ’over’ is 3-1 in the last four matchups between the Suns and Hornets.
The Phoenix Suns will look to even the season series with the New Orleans Hornets at two games apiece when the teams clash Friday night at the New Orleans Arena. Game time is set 5 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.

Phoenix will be watching the upcoming playoffs on TV for the first time in years after a 3-7 straight-up record in its last 10 games officially ended any shot at making the postseason. The Suns come into this game fresh off a 108-98 win over Minnesota as a 4 ½-point road favorite on Wednesday night to snap a four-game road losing streak.

They are now 38-40 SU on the year and 36-39-3 against the spread.

Marcin Gortat had a big night against the Timberwolves with 20 points and 16 rebounds in one of his better games as a Sun, but Steve Nash, Vince Carter and Grant Hill still account for over 40 percent of the scoring.

Nash is also dishing out a NBA-best 11.4 assists a game, while Gortat leads the team in rebounds with 9.4.

The Suns have had no problem putting points on the board this season; averaging 104.9 a game. The main problem has been a defense that is giving up an average of 105.5 points, which is ranked 26th in the league. This number has risen to an average of 108.1 points over the past 10 games.

New Orleans finally clinched a playoff spot with a 101-93 victory over Houston on Wednesday night as a three-point home favorite. It was the Hornets’ fifth win in their last seven games and followed a 108-96 win over Indiana as a 4 ½-point home favorite this past Sunday.

Chris Paul and Company are currently tied with Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference with a record of 45-33 SU (38-38-2 ATS). Each team has four games left to play.

The Hornets lost David West for the season with a knee injury, but Paul and Carl Landry have done a good job in picking up the slack in his absence. Paul is averaging 16.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 9.8 assists a game and Landry is averaging 12.4 points and 3.9 rebounds. Trevor Ariza has also stepped up his game with 19 points in each of his last two games.

New Orleans has been one of the more stingy teams in the league, giving up an average of just 93.5 points a game. The problem is on the offensive side of the ball where the team is scoring just 95.1 points a game. The Hornets have been able to maintain this average in the six games since West went down, but his loss will certainly not help their situation in the playoffs.

The good news for this game is that New Orleans has averaged 102.7 points in their three games this season against the Suns.

Phoenix is 3-2 ATS in its last five games on the road, but just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.

New Orleans is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last five games.

Head-to-head, the Suns have won five of the last eight games SU, but the Hornets have won two of three this season including a 106-100 victory on March 25 as a six-point road underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four meetings.

New Orleans should open as a six- to seven-point favorite for this game. You have to question how much motivation the Suns will bring into this one as they continue to ride out the string. Stick with the Hornets to win and cover the points as they are still fighting for position in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Denver Nuggets, Thunder in NBA odds rematch

The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 contests away from Denver.
Barring anything unforeseen, the Denver Nuggets are going to meet Oklahoma City in a first-round Western Conference playoff matchup with the Thunder holding home-court advantage.

So, on the surface, it would seem Friday night’s 5:05 PT game between the visiting Nuggets and Thunder holds little significance.

That’s on the surface. The game actually means something to both teams.

The fourth-seeded Thunder are chasing Dallas for the No. 3 seed just one game behind the reeling Mavericks and holding the tiebreaker.

Denver has much to prove from a confidence factor after the Thunder beat the Nuggets, 101-94, as 4 ½-point road ‘dogs this past Tuesday. Oklahoma City had lost by an average of 19.3 points per game during its past seven trips to Pepsi Center.

The Nuggets were unable to corral NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant, who scored 32 points despite being double and even tripled-teamed at times.

Duran then poured in 29 points, Russell Westbrook scored 26 points and center Kendrick Perkins pulled down a season-high 17 rebounds as the Thunder followed that victory up by beating the Los Angeles Clippers, 112-108, as 10-point home favorites this past Wednesday. The combined 220 points sailed ‘over’ the 201-point total.

The win clinched the Northwest Division title and at least the No. 4 playoff seed for the Thunder. The last time the franchise won a division title was in 2005 when they were the Seattle SuperSonics.

Denver bounced back from its home loss to the Thunder to upset the Mavericks, 104-96, on Wednesday as four-point road ‘dogs. It was the 11th time in their last 12 away matchups the Nuggets have covered. The combined 200 points pushed on the 200-point total.

The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.1 points per contest. Until defeating the Mavericks, though, the Nuggets had gone three consecutive games without breaking the 100-point barrier.

Since their big trade with the New York Knicks, the Nuggets have gone 16-5, including winning seven of their past eight games. They are 20-7-1 ATS in their past 28 games.

Denver lost Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Knicks, but team chemistry has improved and its bench has become much stronger. The Nuggets, however, could be down three players versus the Thunder.

Timofey Mozgov, a 7-foot-1 center, is out for about two weeks with a knee and ankle injury. Another of Denver’s big men, Chris “Birdman” Andersen, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle and guard Arron Afflalo is sidelined with a hamstring injury.

The Thunder, meanwhile, have turned into the old Nuggets with their style. They feature a great scorer in Durant and savvy point guard in Westbrook along with a physical, intimidating inside game punctuated by Perkins, who easily got the better of Nene in the team’s earlier matchup this week.

It’s Perkins who could give Oklahoma City an added edge. The Thunder have never had the kind of inside toughness Perkins provides. Perkins does a lot of the dirty work that frees up the multi-talented and athletic Durant and Westbrook to do their things.

Oklahoma City held Denver to only eight fast-break points during Tuesday’s victory although Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson scored 28 points.

The Thunder are 29-10 at home. Denver is 17-22 on the road, although 22-16-1 ATS. Oklahoma City is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home contests.

The ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six road matchups. In their last 22 games, the Nuggets have gone 16-5-1 to the ‘under.’

The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of the Thunder’s last 15 games. Oklahoma City is 8-4 ‘under’ in its last 12 home contests.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings

The Blackhawks have won both games played in Detroit this season.
The Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Red Wings are going to be plenty tired of each other by the end of the weekend. That’s because these two Original Six franchises will conclude the regular campaign with a home-and-home series starting with a Friday contest at Detroit’s Joe Louis Arena.

The Verizon network will televise the matchup starting at 4:35 p.m. (PT).

The weekend contests are crucial to the Blackhawks, as the defending champs are tied with Anaheim for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Chicago received a lucky bounce Wednesday during its 4-3 overtime victory against St. Louis as a 180 home favorite. The fortunate break occurred at the 7:52 mark of the second period when Marion Hossa appeared to kick the puck in the net with the Hawks trailing 2-0.

However, it was ruled a good goal after referees went to a video review which took six minutes. That seemed to give the Hawks new life.

Though the combined seven goals catapulted ‘over’ the NHL odds, the ‘under’ is 8-2 in Chicago’s last 10 contests and 43-37 overall.

Jonathan Toews scored the winning goal with 1:41 left in overtime to clinch Chicago’s biggest victory of the season. The club also received a big boost by the appearance of Patrick Sharp, who returned for the first time in two weeks despite a gimpy left knee.

Corey Crawford stooped 35-of-39 shots to register the win. His record improved to 32-17-3-3 with a 2.27 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Crawford has also notched four shutouts.

Chicago is 19-12-4-5 on enemy ice thanks to outscoring the opposition by an average of 3.0 to 2.75.

Detroit has clinched a playoff berth, but is still fighting with San Jose for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The Wings received a double-dose of bad news Wednesday when Carolina blanked them in a pick’em game, 3-0. Henrik Zetterberg, who leads Detroit with 24 goals and 56 assists, suffered an ankle injury.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Zetterberg as “doubtful.” Detroit may also be without defenseman Niklas Kronwall, who has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury. He is listed as “questionable.”

The fact that Detroit is home Friday night isn’t as big of an advantage as one might think. The Red Wings are just 21-13-4-2 at Joe Louis Arena, including an anemic 10-14-2 after the all-star break.

Jimmy Howard stopped 29-of-32 Carolina shots in a losing effort. The 27-year-old netminder saw his record slip to 36-16-3-2 with a bloated 2.76 GAA and .909 save percentage. Howard has just two shutouts.

Detroit continues to lead the league offensively by averaging 3.1 goals per game. However, the squad is leaking oil defensively by allowing an average of 2.9 GPG (21st).

These two Central Division foes have met four times this season, with Chicago capturing three. That includes 3-2 and 4-1 victories in the two outings played at Joe Louis Arena. The ‘under’ has cashed in all four matchups.

Chicago has a distinct advantage on special teams during the season series, going 6-for-14 on the power play compared to Detroit’s 2-for-10. Chicago has also outshot Detroit, 133-128.

These squads will conclude the regular season Sunday afternoon with the back end of this home-and-home series in Chicago.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Betting Preview: Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

Six have the last eight wins in this series have been by the road team.
The Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres very well could be first round opponents in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and if that's the case, Friday night's NHL betting affair will be a great appetizer for the main event next week.

The puck will drop from HSBC Arena in Buffalo at 4:30 p.m. (PT) in a duel that virtually every team in the Eastern Conference will be watching closely.

The Flyers have just about lost out on their chance to become the top seed in the Eastern Conference this year thanks to a terrible swoon that has featured four straight losses. One of those defeats came as minus 164 favorites against the Ottawa Senators, while another was as minus 208 chalk against the Atlanta Thrashers.

In fact, the only loss in this run that came against a team that is probably going to be in the playoffs was the one against the New York Rangers back on March 3.

Philly needs two wins and a regulation loss by the Washington Capitals in their finale to get back in the top seed. However, the Flyers are far more concerned about what's behind them in the Eastern Conference standings than what is in front.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are charging and now stand just one point back of the division lead. Should the Pens hop the Flyers, the boys from the City of Brotherly Love will likely end up in a first-round battle against a stingy Tampa Bay Lightning team that is almost certainly going to be the No. 5 seed in the second season.

The entire team has just collapsed on the Flyers all at once. They've been outscored 13-6 on this four-game skid, and there doesn't really seem to be any reason for it. Philly is averaging 3.1 GPG this season, and only allowing 2.6 GPG. However, this is the only team in the league to not come up with a shutout all season long.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has played superb hockey over the course of the last few months. Since December 28, the Sabres are 27-11-6, giving them one of the better marks in the Eastern Conference in that stretch.

As a result, they are in the No. 7 seed in the playoffs coming into play on Thursday, and should they pick up just two more points in these final two games of the year, they'll be in the playoffs and could be a dangerous team to oust as a result.

Could this be the return of Ryan Miller in net? Jhonas Enroth has been between the pipes over the course of these last four games, and he really only has one bad outing against the smoking hot Capitals to show for his work. Buffalo has seven points in those four games.

Miller has been out with an upper body injury, and depending on how the rest of the games play out around them, the Sabres and head coach Lindy Ruff might elect to keep Miller on the bench.

The road team is 6-2 over the course of the last eight meetings in this series. The most recent clash between these Eastern Conference rivals saw Sabres register a 5-3 win in the City of Brotherly Love. The Flyers won the other two battles this season, a 5-2 triumph here in Buffalo in January and a 6-3 victory home in October.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Diamond Double

April 7, 2011


Friday marks the start of the weekend for most of the working stiffs out there. It also sets into motion some quality early series in Major League Baseball. We’ll see one of the better rivalries in sport get renewed, while we get a National League East showdown.

Yankees at Red Sox – 2:05 p.m. EDT

It’s that time for all the folks at ESPN to fall over themselves for the Red Sox and Yankees facing off against one another. New York is coming into this game with no real reason to be worried. Boston, on the other hand, is giving its fans a reason to have a conniption after what was a very productive offseason.

The Red Sox will be sending John Lackey (0-1, 22.09) out to open this series. Lackey is looking to bounce back after a horrid start to the 2011 campaign. The former Angels hurler was smacked around for nine runs on 10 hits in less than four innings of work by Texas in a 12-5 loss in Arlington last Saturday. Lackey will need some help from Boston’s vaunted bats, who are slumping out of the gate with a .190 batting average.

Phil Hughes (0-1, 11.25) knows something of having a rough outing as well. The young pitcher barely lasted four innings against the Tigers, allowing five runs on five hits in a 10-7 setback that closed off a chance for series sweep last Sunday.

This is a game of firsts for both clubs. The Red Sox are making their home debut for the season and the Yanks are hitting the road for the first time in 2011. The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Bombers so far, while the ‘over’ is 3-2 for the BoSox. These two teams split the head-to-head meetings 9-9 last season. However, the Yanks are 6-4 in 10 games at Fenway Park last year. Also, Boston is 6-3 in its last nine home day dates.

Phillies at Braves – 7:35 p.m. EDT

There isn’t much surprise at the top of the National League East’s standing as the Phillies sit above all. That tends to happen when you have a load of awesome in your starting rotation. The Braves are supposed to be right up there in the hunt for a playoff spot after last year’s strong effort. And while that still is a possibility for Atlanta, the start to the year has been mediocre.

Philadelphia will send up its latest ace in the form of Cliff Lee (1-0, 3.86) on Friday night. Lee showed why the Phils came out of nowhere to snatch him up in during the winter against Houston on April 2. The southpaw tossed seven innings worth of work versus the Astros, allowing three runs on four hits and struck out 11 in a 9-4 win as a heavy $2.40 home favorite (risk $240 to win $100). Lee has three career starts against the Braves, going 1-1 with a 5.06 earned run average.

The Braves will hand the ball to Tim Hudson (1-0, 1.29) to get this series off on the right note. There is reason for the Bravos to be hopeful in this game. Hudson was dominating in his start against the Nationals, surrendering just three hits and a run in seven strong innings. The former Athletic showed strength last year against Philly, going 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three starts.

Atlanta went 8-10 against the Phillies last season. However, the Braves were 5-4 in nine battles with Philadelphia at Turner Field in 2011. The ‘under’ is 10-7-1 in those contests as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Pitchers Report - April

April 7, 2011

Major League Baseball trades places with college basketball as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles - good month pitchers.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one (67%) or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Jeremy Bonderman - Detroit: 7-3
A.J. Burnett - New York Yankees: 11-4
Dana Eveland - L.A. Dodgers: 10-4
Zach Greinke - Milwaukee: 10-5
Felix Hernandez - Seattle: 12-4
Livan Hernandez - Washington: 9-4
Jason Johnson - Florida: 7-3
Tim Lincecum - San Francisco:11-4
Derek Lowe - Atlanta: 11-5
Erwin Santana - Los Angeles Angels: 8-3
*Johan Santana - N.Y. Mets: 10-5
*Adam Wainwright - St. Louis: 12-3

BAD MONTH PITCHERS

David Bush - Milwaukee: 4-9
Johnny Cueto - Cincinnati: 5-10
Tom Gorzelanny - Washington: 2-8
Jeremy Guthrie - Baltimore: 4-11
John Lannan - Washington: 5-10
Shaun Marcum - Milwaukee: 3-7

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Friday, April 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 2:05 PM ET Boston -123 500
Boston - Under 10 500

Kansas City - 3:05 PM ET Detroit -169 500
Detroit - Over 9 500

Washington - 4:10 PM ET NY Mets -145 500
NY Mets - Under 8 500

Oakland - 4:10 PM ET Minnesota -109 500
Minnesota - Under 8 500

St. Louis - 4:35 PM ET San Francisco -163 500
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +103 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Florida -111 500
Houston - Over 8 500

Colorado - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +113 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Philadelphia - 7:35 PM ET Atlanta +100 500
Atlanta - Over 7 500

Tampa Bay - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -139 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +107 500
Milwaukee - Under 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 9:40 PM ET Arizona +101 500
Arizona - Under 9 500

Toronto - 10:05 PM ET Toronto +117 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

LA Dodgers - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -105 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Cleveland - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -125 500
Seattle - Over 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Wade expected to return Friday vs. Bobcats


CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (32-46)

at MIAMI HEAT (54-24)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -12.5, Total: 186

As ridiculous as it sounds, Friday night’s game against Charlotte might be the most important one the new-look Heat have played.

Miami caught a break Thursday night when the Celtics went down in Chicago. It brought the teams back into a tie for the No. 2 seed in the East, which will determine all-important home-court advantage in their likely second-round playoff matchup. The teams meet Sunday, but aside from that game, Boston gets two against the Wizards and a home game against the Knicks. Considering the Celtics have already clinched the tiebreaker over Miami, the Heat can’t afford to slip up again, as they did at home against Milwaukee on Wednesday.

That’s why there’s a good chance you’ll see Dwyane Wade back in the lineup on Friday. Wade suffered a thigh injury in Sunday’s win over the Nets and sat out the Bucks loss. He didn’t practice on Thursday (not surprising, considering the injury requires rest), but reportedly looked healthy enough in Friday’s shoot-around to play Friday night. Wade has been on fire recently with 27.7 PPG on 63% FG in his past three games.

The Heat simply weren’t good without Wade on Wednesday. LeBron James led the way with 29 points and Chris Bosh added 18, but the rest of their starters combined for 16 points and the team shot 40.5% from the field in a 90-85 loss.

Like the Bucks, the Bobcats are a defensive-minded team that plays at a very slow tempo. However, they pose much less of a threat. They’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, and their past three games have been flat-out ugly. They lost to Washington at home on Sunday, just the third road win of the season for the Wizards. They went to Cleveland and lost by 10 on Tuesday, and then lost by in overtime to Orlando at home on Wednesday.

Since dealing their best player, forward Gerald Wallace, at the trade deadline, the Bobcats are 2-9 SU and 5-6 ATS in road games (they’ve also gone Under in 10 of those games). In the 21 games since the Wallace trade, they’re last in the NBA in scoring (89.5 PPG), 25th in FG Pct. (44.6%) and 24th in free-throw attempts per game (21.4).

There’s some hope that second-year swing man Gerald Henderson’s career night on Wednesday will carry over. Henderson had 32 points on 12-of-22 shooting in the loss to Orlando. Charlotte will likely be without Stephen Jackson again, and Tyrus Thomas is questionable at best. Second-year power forward Dante Cunningham scored 16 in the Orlando loss, but needed 20 shots to get his points.

Considering what’s on the line for the Heat, I can’t imagine them doing anything but blitzing their inferior opponent. I’m going with Miami to cover the big spread in this one. The FoxSheets has a few trends working in the Heat’s favor, including this one:

Play Against - Any team (CHARLOTTE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. (227-162 over the last 5 seasons, 58.4%, +48.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to bet the Under on Friday.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. (56-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +28.5 units. Rating = 2*).

CHARLOTTE is 30-14 UNDER (68.2%, +14.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The average score was CHARLOTTE 90.6, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas looks to beat Clippers for 10th straight time


LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (31-48)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (53-25)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -9.5, Total: 200

Losers of four straight, the Mavs aren’t in a very good place right now. But they have a chance to get back on track Friday night against a Clippers team that they’ve dominated.

Dallas is all but out of the running for the No. 2 seed in the West, and their recent slide has them just a game ahead of Oklahoma City for the No. 3 seed. Owner Mark Cuban had some interesting comments before Wednesday’s loss to Denver, saying he’s more concerned with having well-rested players for the postseason than having the No. 3 seed. It makes some sense: the 3-seed will be set up for a second-round matchup with the defending champion Lakers, while the 4-seed will get the Spurs. Despite their 60 wins, San Antonio has been banged up in the second half of the season and are viewed by many as less of a threat than L.A.

Center Tyson Chandler (back) and point guard Jason Kidd (rest) sat out Wednesday night’s loss to Denver, though both seem likely to return to the lineup Friday. Dallas is looking for its 10th SU win in a row over the Clippers. The Mavs are 6-2-1 ATS against L.A.’s “other” team over the past nine games, and they haven’t lost a home game SU to the Clips in nearly five years (April 19, 2006). The Mavs have won all three of the teams’ matchups, SU and ATS, this season. While the Mavs’ four straight losses is an ugly streak, three of those losses came on the road (Lakers, Golden State and Portland) and they were short-handed in Wednesday’s home loss to Denver.

But Dallas will run into a Clippers team that’s playing well of late. They beat the Thunder at home last Saturday and scored a rare road win in Memphis on Tuesday (at 9-30, the Clippers have the Western Conference’s second-worst SU road record). While they fell short in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, they covered the spread and were within two points in the final minute of the 112-108 loss.

Center Chris Kaman tweaked a knee injury on Wednesday, but the Clippers do have their two young building blocks—Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon—healthy and playing together again. While Gordon’s shooting touch hasn’t come back since returning 10 games ago (17.6 PPG, but only 39.8% FG), he and Mo Williams (15.0 PPG on 45.9% shooting) have stretched opposing defenses and helped opened things up for Griffin (24.5 PPG on 53.1% FG over the past 10 games).

Considering the Clippers’ strong recent play and the fact that the Mavs are at least acting like they have little to play for, I’m picking Los Angeles to cover. The FoxSheets shows a three-star trend that goes against the Mavs in this one:

DALLAS is 8-25 ATS (24.2%, -19.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 102.0, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Injuries abound in Knicks-Nets game
B

NEW YORK KNICKS (40-38)

at NEW JERSEY NETS (24-54)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4, Total: 211.5

The red-hot Knicks look to add to their five-game win streak, but may have to do it without Amar’e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups. The not-so-hot Nets have some major injury problems of their own, as Deron Williams Anthony Morrow and Kris Humphries are all questionable for Friday’s game.

With four games left and the sixth or seventh seed being basically irrelevant (Heat and Celtics are tied), the Knicks will most likely rest a banged-up Stoudemire (ankle) and Billups (thigh). New York would still love to charge into the playoffs on a winning streak and let momentum possibly take it to a first-round upset. The Knicks had an impressive road win Wednesday beating the 76ers 97-92 behind 31 points from Carmelo Anthony (25.5 PPG). The five-game win streak is New York’s longest since it won eight in a row Nov. 28-Dec. 12. If Billups is unable to play, Toney Douglas (10.5 PPG) will have to step up at point guard and hit big shots as he did Wednesday when he scored seven points in the final 1:47.

Williams (wrist), Morrow (knee) and Humphries (foot) all missed Wednesday's 116-109 loss at Detroit and their statuses are unknown for Friday’s game. In the loss to Detroit, Brook Lopez (20.0 PPG) exploded for 39 points on 14-of-20 shooting. Against the Knicks this year, Lopez is averaging 27.0 PPG. Anthony Morrow (13.2 PPG) could be a big loss if unable to play, considering the sharp-shooting youngster dropped 30 points in the March 30 loss to New York. Kris Humphries (10.0 PPG 10.4 RPG), who may better be known as Kim Kardashian’s boyfriend, gives the Nets an added toughness on the glass inside. With injuries on both teams, the team with the better bench should come out victorious in this battle of the replacements.

New York has been good against the spread on the road going 24-13 ATS (65%) and also very good against division opponents (10-4 ATS). One thing that has plagued the Knicks this year has been their inability to beat bad teams (18-21 ATS). New Jersey has been average in home games (19-18 ATS), but horrible versus division opponents at 4-10 ATS. The Nets don’t want to get into a shootout as they did last meeting, considering they are 15-23 ATS (40%) against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. One trend leaning toward New Jersey is that the Nets are 22-15 ATS (60%) against teams with a winning record. With all the injuries, I like New York to win and cover considering it will still have a star (Carmelo Anthony) left in the lineup to carry the scoring load.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Knicks.

Play On - Road favorites (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. (29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks look to retain dominance over Pacers

ATLANTA HAWKS (44-34)

at INDIANA PACERS (36-43)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Indiana -6, Total: 195

With their playoff seeds all but clinched, Indiana and Atlanta don’t have a lot to play for right now. For that reason, Hawks forward Josh Smith (knee) is likely to sit this one out. And that puts Atlanta’s lengthy win streak over the Pacers in jeopardy.

The Hawks have beaten Indiana nine times in a row SU, going 8-1 ATS during that span. Their past six wins over the Pacers have been by double digits, with two of them coming at Indiana.

Smith has done a healthy amount of damage against Indiana, averaging 22.0 PPG on 54% shooting during that nine-game winning streak, while posting an average plus-minus of +13.0. The usual suspects—Joe Johnson (22.4 PPG) and Al Horford (18.1 PPG on 57% FG, 13.7 RPG)—have had great success against Indiana as well.

The Pacers might be getting Atlanta at the right time to end their futility, though. Under interim head coach Frank Vogel, they’re 12-5 SU at home (and 19-16 SU overall, earning them the eighth seed in the East). Under Vogel, they’ve beaten the likes of Chicago, Boston and Portland in Conseco Fieldhouse. The Chicago and Boston wins both came in the past three weeks.

They’ve won four of five SU, thanks to inspired play from a couple of talented, but inconsistent young players: center Roy Hibbert and point guard Darren Collison. Hibbert is averaging 15.8 PPG on 59% shooting from the field over that five-game stretch. Collison is shooting a blistering 71% from the floor while averaging 14.6 PPG and 5.8 APG.

But while I think the Pacers have a great chance to break their losing streak against the Hawks, I think they’re giving way too many points against a team that has thoroughly dominated them in recent years. I’m sticking with Atlanta to cover. The FoxSheets has some info working against Indiana as well, including:

Play Against - Any team (INDIANA) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. (227-162 over the last 5 seasons, 58.4%, +48.8 units. Rating = 2*).

And this three-star FoxSheets trend expects a low-scoring game to finish Under the total.

ATLANTA is 23-8 UNDER (74.2%, +14.2 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The average score was ATLANTA 92.8, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Winless Red Sox host Yankees in home opener


NEW YORK YANKEES (4-2)

at BOSTON RED SOX (0-6)


First pitch: Friday, 2:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -130, New York +120, Total: 10

The Red Sox, one of the majors’ two winless teams and enduring their worst start since 1945, finally head to Fenway Park for their home opener on Friday afternoon. Boston is set to begin a 10-game homestand with the first game of a three-game series against the rival New York Yankees.

With a team batting average of .181 and a team ERA of 7.13, the Red Sox come off a pair of three-game sweeps at the hands of Texas and Cleveland, during which they were outscored 38-16. Now they return home for 10 straight games against AL East foes, hoping to right the ship after a winless start not seen in Boston in 66 years.

On the mound, the Red Sox will have John Lackey (0-1, 22.09 ERA), who was blitzed to the tune of 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3.2 innings during his first start of the season against the Rangers. Lackey was 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA against the Yankees last year, but overall, managed just a 2-5 record and 5.77 ERA in starts during the day.

The Yankees hit the road for the first time this season after taking four of six games during a season-opening homestand, with all the victories being saved by veteran closer Mariano Rivera. Their past three games, all against Minnesota, were all decided by a single run, including two wins.

Phil Hughes (0-1, 11.25 ERA) takes the hill for the Yanks. Hughes has team management concerned in the early going as he has seen his velocity drop from last season. In 2010, he was 7-4 on the road, including 2-0 in Boston. However, he is 3-6 with a 5.80 ERA lifetime in April, and 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox.

These two division rivals have split their season series, 9-9, in each of the past three seasons, and are matching up for the first time in 2011. I think Boston will be charged up in front of its home crowd and with Hughes possibly having a “dead” arm, the Red Sox will finally get their first win of the season. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support picking Boston.

Play On - Home teams (BOSTON) - allowing 6.2 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after a one-run loss. (35-12 since 1997.) (74.5%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing. (108-56 since 1997.) (65.9%, +46.1 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Zambrano tries to halt Brewers' 3-game win streak


CHICAGO CUBS (3-3)

at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (3-4)


First pitch: Friday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -110, Chicago +100, Total: 8.5

A pair of NL Central rivals get together for the opener of a three-game series at Miller Park as the Chicago Cubs take on the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday evening.

The Cubs have defined mediocre in their first six games, winning three times while scoring 26 runs and allowing 26 runs. The team was probably hoping for better results, however, as they did so in Wrigley Field while facing two of the worst teams in the National League, the Pirates and Diamondbacks. Now they hit the road for the first time this season, where they face the Brewers, who just finished taking three straight from Atlanta after starting the season 0-4.

Enigmatic right-hander Carlos Zambrano (0-0, 4.50 ERA) returns to one of his favorite ballparks when he takes the hill in Milwaukee. In his past seven starts at Miller Park, Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.97 ERA, including a no-hitter in a game against Houston that was displaced from Minute Maid Park due to a hurricane back in 2008. Overall, he is 43-15 (.741) on the road since 2006.

Zambrano will be opposed by veteran lefty Randy Wolf (0-1, 13.50 ERA), who opposed Zambrano in that Miller Park no-hitter while Wolf was pitching for the Astros. Last season, Wolf made two starts against the Cubs, both at home, and the results couldn’t have been more different. He allowed 8 ER (including 5 HR) in 4.2 IP on June 9 and tossed eight innings of four-hit, one-run ball on Sept. 11.

The Cubs have posted winning records in five straight seasons in Milwaukee, going 26-14 at Miller Park during that span. Look for Zambrano and Chicago to continue their Miller Park success with a win on Friday. These five-star and four-star FoxSheets manager trends provide two more big reasons to side with the Cubs.

MIKE QUADE is 17-5 (77.3%, +18.3 Units) against the money line in road games as the manager of CHICAGO CUBS. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.0, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 5*).

MIKE QUADE is 13-2 (86.7%, +14.8 Units) against the money line after a loss as the manager of CHICAGO CUBS. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.4, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 4*).