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  • #16
    Wednesday's NBA Trends

    April 6, 2011

    New York at Philadelphia...The Knicks have given the Sixers some trouble lately, covering five of last six in series. Entering tonight, New York has also covered three of its last four games after dropping its previous six vs. the number. Five of the last six are also "under" between these two Eastern rivals, although must note that up-tempo New York is now "over" seven in a row prior to this evening’s contest.
    Washington at Indiana...Indiana backers might be encouraged by the fact the favored team has covered the first three series meetings this season. Washington, however, arguably in the midst of its best patch of form all season, winning and covering three straight (for the first time this season!) and five of its last six overall. The Wizards are also "under" 13-7 in their last 20 games.

    Cleveland at Toronto...In the two previous meetings this season, Toronto has partially avenged thee many beating it used to absorb from Cleveland before LeBron moved to Miami; Cavs had won 15 of last 18 in series entering this season, but Raptors have emphatically won and covered first two in the current campaign. Cleveland, a winner last night vs. Charlotte, has not won consecutive games since early November, but has not been an automatic go-against vs. the number after recent victories (34 vs. spread after last seven SU wins). Conflicting "totals" trends; Toronto "over" 6-1 its last 7, but Cavs "under" 12-4 their last 16 overall.

    Orlando at Charlotte...Orlando has mostly controlled this series since a year ago, winning 10 of last 11 meetings (including first round of East playoffs last April) and all three this season, although Charlotte has covered two of those three in current campaign. Magic enters this one on a point-spread slide, however, dropping 10 of last 11 vs. number, and Orlando just 12-18 as road chalk this season. "Unders" also 6-1-1 in last eight meetings between Magic and Bobcats.

    Milwaukee at Miami...Miami has won the first three vs. Milwaukee this season, covering two of those, somewhat reversing last year’s series trend when Bucks won and covered three of four. Heat have also won and covered their last three entering tonight, but they have been subpar home chalk this season, dropping 23 of 37 vs. line as a favorite at American Airlines Arena. Meanwhile, Bucks have covered their last four and 12 of their last 17, although their pursuit of the final East play off spot looks as if it will fall short.

    New Jersey at Detroit...Auburn Hills has not been a favorite destination lately for New Jersey, which has lost 11 of its last 12 SU at The Palace and has covered just once of its last six visits. The Nets have also covered just 3 of their last 12 games overall, and stand only 14-22 as a road dog this season. Meanwhile, Detroit hasn’t been too bad as home chalk (8-6), and covering their last three in role. These two are also both "over" in their last four games.

    Houston at New Orleans...This is probably Houston’s last gasp to stay alive in the West playoff race. Curious series trends this season between these two, with the road underdog winning outright in each of the three previous meetings.

    Phoenix at Minnesota...Phoenix has won outright in its last four visits to the Target Center, and Minnesota not much as a home dog this season, standing just 9-16 in role. Someone is also going to have to win this game, which looks to be a chore for both of these teams that are quite victory-starved lately (Suns dropping 6 of last 7 SU, and T-wolves losing 11 in a row).

    LA Clippers at Oklahoma City...Blake Griffin returns to his old stomping grounds, where he starred not long ago for the Oklahoma Sooners in nearby Norman. Definite home-court edge between these two this season, with host team winning and covering first three this season. Note Thunder now "under" 11-3 last 14 after going that way again last night at Denver, and Clips "under" 7-4 their last 11 outings

    Sacramento at San Antonio...Although it appears too late to save the franchise in the River City, Sac-town is playing some of its best ball of the season lately, winning and covering six of its last eight. Meanwhile, Spurs appear to have shaken their recent slump, winning and covering their last two after dropping their previous six games outright. San Antonio had also gone "over" 7 in a row prior to last night’s "under" at Atlanta, though Kings have gone “under" in their last 4 and 8 of their last 12.

    Denver at Dallas...This pair hasn’t faced each other since the trade deadline when Denver remade its roster. Previously, the road ‘dog had covered the three meetings this season. Despite last night’s loss vs. Thunder, Nuggets still 17-3-1 vs. line their last 21 on board, while Mavs back home after losing and failing to cover their last three on recent extended road trip. Note Denver continuing to trend "under" (5-0 last 5 and 14-3 last 17) since the Carmelo Anthony trade, confirming improved defense.

    LA Lakers at Golden State...We haven’t had to worry all that much lately about how the Lakers fare off a defeat, but now that Phil Jackson’s crew is off two straight losses, it’s worth noting that LA is just 3-5 vs. the number after its last right straight-up defeats. And though the Lake Show usually beats up Golden State, winning 12 in a row vs. the Warriors, LA has covered only 3 of 7 in the series since a year ago. Lakers only 3-6 vs. number last nine on board entering tonight, and both of these teams trending "under" (Lakers that way all season, now "under" 47-28, while Golden State "under" 4 of last 5 and 7 of last 10).
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    • #17
      Inside the Paint - Wednesday

      April 6, 2011

      After a one-day hiatus, the Association heated up the hardwood last night and we learned a lot. For starters, underdogs barked loud to the tune of a 10-3 record against the spread. Even more impressive, they posted a 7-6 straight up mark and we’re not talking about small pups here folks. The Clippers (+9), Kings (+8.5) Warriors (+10.5) and Jazz (+14) all won on the road as heavy ‘dogs against the Grizzlies, Rockets, Trail Blazers and Lakers respectively.

      Every now and then, some bettors will take a shot on a wild parlay with live ‘dogs and cash. If that individual would’ve played the above quartet outright, you’re looking at a ticket to never forget.

      According to the VegasInsider.com Parlay Calculator, a four-team $100 money-line parlay wager would bring back:

      L.A. Clippers (+450)
      Sacramento (+375)
      Golden State (+500)
      Utah (+1300)

      Wager $100 to win $219,350

      Who said you can’t make six digits betting?

      Even though we had some upsets last night, we also had some key wins. San Antonio stopped Atlanta 97-90, which helped the Spurs inch closer to the top overall seed especially with the Lakers falling. Chicago kept its grip on the No. 1 spot in the East with a home win (97-94) over Phoenix and Boston earned a solid victory (99-82) against Philadelphia.

      Charlotte’s loss at Cleveland (89-99) all but assured them of the summer off and Houston’s setback at home to Sacramento (101-104) certainly limited its chances as well.

      And we’d be remiss not to mention Texas A&M’s 76-70 win over Notre Dame in the women’s championship last night. The Aggies and Irish actually put on a great display compared to the disaster between Connecticut and Butler in the men’s finale on Monday.

      Let’s just say we’re happy that we had 13 games in the NBA last night and even happier that we get another 12 tonight. We do have some meaningless tilts, but you can bet on them and make money.

      Without further adieu, let’s take a quick look at each contest.

      New York at Philadelphia: This Atlantic Division battle is actually pretty big, we think. If the Knicks win, the two teams will have identical 40-39 records and the season series will be knotted at 2-2. One team would earn the sixth seed, with the seventh to the other. What does that mean? You either face Miami or Boston in the first round. Pick your poison, right? For our purposes, Knicks have won and covered four straight and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four too.

      Washington at Indiana: Break up the Wizards! They’ve won and covered three straight and four of five. Hard to bet on a team with a horrible road mark (3-35 SU, 14-24 ATS)) but Washington has won two in a row away from home. Taking the points (+11) seems like an attractive proposition, especially against an Indiana team that could be flat after getting help with Charlotte’s loss last night. The Pacers do need the win and can clinch but this team isn’t a good buy as a double-digit ‘chalk "

      Cleveland at Toronto: If you bet this game and you win, you’re lucky. If you lose, you’re a jackass. Both teams have been trending towards the ‘over’ lately. Again, be smart!

      Orlando at Charlotte: Lots of injuries in this one, which is why you have no opener. The Magic are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games.

      Milwaukee at Miami: Don’t be surprised to see Dwyane Wade (thigh) as a late scratch here. The Bucks are off an ugly loss to Orlando (72-78) last night, while Miami comes in rested. Technically, you can fade the Heat at home in their first game back from a four-game road trip (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS).

      New Jersey at Detroit: The Nets will be without Deron Williams (wrist) tonight and that tells you everything. He had 18 points and 21 assists in New Jersey’s 107-105 win over Minnesota last night. Detroit is banged up too. Passing here could be the best option.

      Houston at New Orleans: New Orleans can clinch the playoffs tonight with a home win over Houston, who is still mathematically alive. The line (3.5) seems real tricky on this one and the total (198) is geared towards Houston’s run ‘n gun style. Did you know that the Hornets have watched the ‘under’ go 48-28 on the season?

      Phoenix at Minnesota: If anything the ‘over’ could be worth a look, but it’s a tad expensive (217). Hard to back the Timberwolves, losers of 11 straight or lay the points with a Phoenix team that is playing out the string.

      L.A. Clippers at Oklahoma City: The Thunder had a nice road win at Denver (101-94) last night, who they’ll most likely face in the first round of the playoffs. Los Angeles rallied for the upset at Memphis and we wouldn’t be surprised to see another close game here tonight. The total is hovering around 201 points, which seems high considering the Clippers and Thunder haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard lately.

      Sacramento at San Antonio: Oddsmakers are expecting a 111-100 San Antonio victory at home, which is doable. However, the Kings have been competitive lately and certainly fighting down the stretch. Five of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, including the first two meetings this season.

      Denver at Dallas: Even though we have two playoff teams here, this one can be defined as meaningless with both the Mavericks (3) and Nuggets (5) penciled into their postseason seeds. Denver has played well since trading Carmelo and Chauncey, but most might be surprised by their total tendencies during that span. The ‘under’ has gone 15-5 in the second-half, which includes a current run of five straight.

      L.A. Lakers at Golden State: After starting the second-half of the season 17-1, the Lakers have dropped two straight at home to Denver (90-95) on Sunday and then again last night to Utah (85-86). Will we see three consecutive losses for the Purple and Gold tonight? Phil Jackson’s team has won 12 straight (6-6 ATS) against Golden State, who is coming off back-to-back victories against Dallas (99-92) and Portland (99-92). This one is televised on ESPN, so the national spotlight could have the Warriors amped up. Looking back at the last 20 games between these teams, Los Angeles hasn’t been held under 104 points. Tonight’s ‘over/under’ is 203, while the Lakers are laying close to seven points. When you do the quick math, the ‘team total’ for the Lakers should be sitting around 105 or 106 points. This writer has won and lost, but how can you not take L.A. ‘over’ in this spot? Especially after watching the Lakers score 90 and 85 in their last two.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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