The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets MLB-NBA-NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

NY Mets, Phillies continue MLB odds series

You won't find many division rivals in MLB betting action that hate each other more than the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. These two will square off for the first time this week in the City of Brotherly Love, and the second game of this three-game set takes place on Wednesday night.

The first pitch from Citizens Bank Ballpark will be thrown at 4:05 p.m. (PT).

This pitching matchup is one between a No. 1 starter and a No. 5 starter, but to no one's surprise, it is clear that the edge is going to the No. 5 man in this duel.

The ace is New York's Mike Pelfrey who would be an excellent addition for another team as a No. 4 starter. Pelfrey clearly does not have the stuff to be a stopper at the top of a rotation. He conceded five runs in 4-1/3 innings of work in his first start of the season at the Florida Marlins, and he suffered the loss in the duel.

For his career, Pelfrey is only just barely a .500 pitcher at 43-42, and his best career ERA came last year at 3.66.

Joe Blanton, on the other hand, would be a No. 2 or a No. 3 pitcher on many teams but is answering the bell after Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt in the Phillies rotation. This will be the first outing of the year for Blanton after last season when he went 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA.

Blanton does have a heck of a career against the Mets, as he is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA. He is holding New York batters to just a .228 batting average.

Coming into play Tuesday, it's really hard to argue with anything that the Phils have done offensively this year. They scored at least five runs in a three-game sweep against the Houston Astros to start the season, and they are batting .349 as a team. There are already 10 extra base hits to speak of on the campaign, and Ryan Howard is leading the way with six runs driven in and four scored.

The bullpen remains a major bone of contention for those betting on the Phils on the MLB lines on a regular basis. This unit has allowed five runs in eight innings of work. The rest of the starting rotation only allowed six runs in 19 innings.

New York has called upon its bullpen a bit more often than Philly has. The Mets have already used eight different arms in relief, and four of the eight have given up a run.

The Mets did play well in Philadelphia last season, winning four of the nine games. Though that might not sound like that impressive of a record, in actuality, they ended up almost a full unit on the MLB odds when push came to shove.

New York and Philadelphia split their 18 meetings in 2010, the 9-9 result giving the advantage in the MLB betting proceedings to Mets backers.

Those interested in betting on the total should know the 'under' has provided 22 winners in the last 30 meetings in this series.

A strong chance of rain in Philadelphia on Tuesday might lead to a postponement of that game, the effect of which could be a shift in Wednesday's starting pitchers. The forecast for Wednesday is mostly clear skies with an afternoon high climbing to the upper-50s before cooling back into the 40s overnight.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Preview: Mariners, Texas Rangers close series

The Seattle Mariners wrap up a three-game series with Texas on Wednesday in an 11:05 a.m. (PT) start at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The game will be broadcast locally on Roots Sports in Seattle and Fox Sports-Southwest in Texas.

Weather could be a factor in this game as the forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s, but with windy conditions that could have gusts approaching 30 miles an hour.

Alfonzo Marquez will be behind home plate, which could slightly favor the hitters in this one as 60 percent of his games last season went ‘over’ the total.

Seattle lost the first game of this series 6-4 as a 150 road underdog on Monday. The Rangers jumped out to three-run lead after two innings and added three more runs in the middle innings to secure the win.

Milton Bradley went 3-for-4 and Justin Smoak added two more hits and a RBI for the Mariners in the losing effort. The loss dropped them to 2-2 on the year, with three of the games going ‘over’ the total.

Right-hander Felix Hernandez will be making his second start of the season for the Mariners after hurling a complete game against Oakland in last Friday’s season opener. He scattered five hits and gave up two earned runs in a 6-2 win as a 101 road underdog. The 2010 AL Cy Young winner went just 13-12 last season in 34 starts but had an ERA of just 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.06. He has struggled in the past against Texas with a 10-12 record and a 3.89 ERA.

The Rangers’ bats have produced an incredible 32 runs in their first four games led by Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli and Elvis Andrus who each have four RBI. Ian Kinsler has belted three home runs and Cruz is hitting .429 with six hits in his 14 at-bats to help lead Texas to a 4-0 start. Three of these games have gone ‘over’ the total.

C.J. Wilson will be on the mound for the Rangers in this one. He gave up four runs (two earned) on six hits in an opening day no-decision against Boston. Last season, the left-hander went 15-8 with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.25 in 33 starts. He has made six starts and 37 relief appearances against Seattle and is 6-4 with a 5.18 ERA.

Head-to-head, the Rangers had won five of the last eight games in the series heading into Tuesday's second game of the set which found Texas a minus 155 favorite. The Rangers' win on Monday gave them a 2-2 home mark versus the Mariners in the last four games.

The Mariners are 7-3 against Texas in Hernandez’s last 10 starts, but just 2-3 in his last five. Texas is 4-1 in Wilson’s last five starts against Seattle. These two pitchers last faced one another on Sept. 17 of 2010 with Seattle coming away with a 2-1 win as a 104 home favorite.

While this game should not turn into a slugfest with two quality pitchers on the mound, it could be a tall task for Hernandez to completely quiet the Rangers bats as this lineup has shown power from top to bottom so far. Stick with Texas to pound out enough runs to get the win in this one.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Miami Heat get visit from Bucks

Six of the last eight meetings between the Bucks and Heat stayed ’under.’
Shed no tears for the Miami Heat. Since losing five in a row back in late February/early March, the Heat have gone 11-2.

Miami has won eight of its last nine games and is battling Boston for the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat play twice more before hosting the Celtics in a Sunday showdown. Up next for Miami on Wednesday is a visit from Milwaukee. Tip-off is 5:05 p.m. PT with ESPN televising.

Chicago point guard Derrick Rose is generating a lot of MVP buzz. However, a strong case can be made for LeBron James. He’s second in scoring next to Kevin Durant averaging 26.6 points a game, 13th in assists at seven per game and 32nd in rebounding at 7.5 per contest.

James also is No. 1 in plus/minus minutes when on the court, a category Rose currently ranks 10th. James has scored in double figures in 75 consecutive games for Miami, tying Alonzo Mourning for third best in team history.

The Bucks have the No. 3 defense in the NBA, but haven’t been able to stop James in losing all three previous meetings to Miami this season. James is averaging 22.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists against Milwaukee, while also coming up with seven steals, a category he places 12th.

Dealing with injuries the entire season, the Bucks’ playoff hopes are realistically shot trailing Indiana by three games entering Tuesday. Milwaukee lost a huge one-point road game to the Pacers this past Friday. The Bucks, though, came back to defeat Philadelphia, 93-87, at home the next night in overtime as 1 ½-point ‘dogs. The combined 180 points went ‘under’ the 186-point total.

Milwaukee beat the 76ers despite missing Carlos Delfino (rib), Ersan Ilyasova (concussion) and Jon Brockman (shoulder). Star center Andrew Bogut is playing with a painful right elbow and may not last much longer. He’s scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery once the season ends.

Drew Gooden and Michael Redd have returned from extended absences for the Bucks, although Redd has been limited to single-digit minutes since returning from a second major knee surgery on March 28.

The Bucks played at Orlando on Tuesday. The Bucks were 3-0-1 ATS in their past four road matchups entering the Orlando game.

Milwaukee is 5-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back games going back to February. This marks the Bucks’ fourth game in six days.

Entering their Florida trip, the Bucks had gone ‘under’ in 21 of their last 30 games. It’s easy to see why there have been so many ‘unders’ since Milwaukee ranks last in scoring and field goal percentage, while playing outstanding defense.

Brandon Jennings leads the Bucks in scoring averaging 16.1 points per game. By contrast, Miami has James averaging 26.6 points a game, Dwyane Wade putting up 25.7 points per game and Chris Bosh averaging 18.7 points a game.

Wade is questionable for Wednesday's game due to a quad injury sufferend in Sunday's win at New Jersey.

The Bucks have played Miami tight, losing 101-95 in overtime as seven-point home ‘dogs on Jan. 7. The combined 196 points went ‘over’ the 183-point total. James scored 26 points, pulled down 10 rebounds and had six steals.

Just three days earlier, the Heat defeated the Bucks, 101-89, as 9 ½-point home favorites. The combined 190 points went ‘over’ the 182-point total. Wade led Miami with 34 points. The Bucks were missing Jennings, their scoring and assists leader.

Milwaukee trailed Miami by three points midway through the fourth quarter during its first meeting on Dec. 6, before falling 88-78 as five-point home ‘dogs. The combined 166 points went ‘under’ the 183 ½-point total.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two clubs.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: Sharks circling at Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks look to move a step closer to a postseason berth when they host their Pacific Division rival San Jose Sharks on Wednesday night. This is the second meeting in four days.

The puck will drop from the Honda Center at 7 p.m. (PT) and be broadcast locally.

The current seventh-seed Ducks (44-30-5, 93 points) missed a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a 4-3 home loss to Dallas on Sunday. They may have to win two of their final three games, with a pair against the L.A. Kings coming up this weekend.

Anaheim has lost two straight overall after going 12-3 in its prior 15 games. There was a 4-2 loss at San Jose on Saturday before the Dallas defeat.

Goaltender Ray Emery (6-2, 2.30 GAA) has been in net the last five games and played in nine overall since making his team debut last month. The former Philadelphia Flyer was out of action over a year after hip surgery, but could remarkably be the playoff goalie with Jonas Hiller still having vertigo symptoms.

The Anaheim offense ranks 11th in the league (2.84 per game), but has been much better lately. Its 3.36 average in 14 March games was second behind San Jose (3.64).

Winger Corey Perry is third in the NHL with 93 points and his top line with Ryan Getzlaf (71 points) and Bobby Ryan (68 points) is deadly right now. Teemu Selanne (76 points) is the fourth Duck to rank in the top-25 of league scoring.

Increased offensive output has helped the ‘over’ go 4-0 in Anaheim’s last four games and 7-1 in the last eight.

The Sharks (47-23-9, 103 points) wrapped up their fourth consecutive Pacific Division title with a 6-1 home win over the Kings on Monday. They’re 8-0-1 in their last nine games after an 0-1-2 stretch.

San Jose is guaranteed a three-seed in the playoffs, but still has a lot to play for. Detroit has 102 points and home ice is crucial in a potential second-round series. San Jose beat Detroit in the conference semis last year (4-1) and home ice really helped.

The ‘over’ is 8-1-1 in the Sharks’ last 10 games, with the offense at a whopping 4.6 goals per game. They lead the NHL in scoring since the All-Star break (3.41), compared to just 15th before (2.72).

Center Patrick Marleau is red-hot with 10 goals and 19 points in his last 10 games. The team has seven forwards with at least 41 points and the first two lines scare any opponent.

Goaltender Antti Niemi is 34-17-6 with a 2.38 GAA after winning the Stanley Cup with Chicago last year, beating the Sharks in the conference finals. He’s arguably the team MVP after a slow start and gives them great confidence heading into the playoffs.

San Jose is 3-1-1 against the Ducks this year including last Saturday. Niemi is 2-1 with a 2.01 GAA in his three starts against them. The ‘under’ is 13-4-2 in the last 19 meetings in Anaheim.

Sharks winger Ryane Clowe (lower body) is questionable to play. Hiller is expected to be out again.

San Jose has a weekend ‘home-and-home’ with Phoenix to end its regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Betting Preview: LA Kings meet Coyotes

Phoenix and Los Angeles are two Western Conference playoff teams that figure on really getting to know each other the next week or two. The Coyotes (42-25-7-5) and Kings (45-28-4-2) are currently fourth and fifth in the standings with 96 points each, and the regular season concludes this weekend.

This contest will go a long way in determining who finally claims the Western Conference’s fourth seed and home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Wednesday’s matchup is slated to start at 7:30 p.m. PT from Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Phoenix takes the ice for the first time since Friday’s shootout setback to Colorado as decided 254 home ‘chalk,’ 4-3. The combined seven goals toppled the 5 ½-goal closing total, ending a string of seven straight ‘under’ outings.

The Coyotes limited the Avalanche to just one shot on goal in the third period, but Colorado scored late in regulation to send the contest to overtime. Phoenix’s Shane Doan had a power-play goal and assist, while Lee Stempniak and Ray Whitney also lit the lamp. The Coyotes finished the contest with advantages in faceoffs won, 35-27, and shots on goal, 38-20.

Los Angeles is also trying to get back into the win column after Monday’s loss to San Jose as a 152 road underdog, 6-1. The combined seven goals toppled the NHL odds, snapping a string of four consecutive ‘under’ outings.

Goaltender Jonathan Quick was pulled early in the second period after yielding four goals, while backup Jonathan Bernier surrendered an additional two goals. Michal Handzus scored the Kings’ lone goal early in the second period. The Kings won more faceoffs, 25-22, but they allowed more shots on goal, 35-32.

Phoenix has won three of the five meetings with Los Angeles this season, but the Kings have won the past two encounters. The Coyotes prevailed Oct. 21 as a 135 home favorite, 4-2, Dec. 29 as a 111 home underdog, 6-3, and Jan. 20 as a 128 road ‘dog, 2-0. Los Angeles triumphed Jan. 22 as 104 road ‘chalk,’ 4-3, and March 3 as a 167 home favorite, 1-0. The home team is 37-18-6 the previous 61 meetings between these teams.

Phoenix left wing Taylor Pyatt (upper body), defenseman Ed Jovanovski (eye) and left wing Lauri Korpikoski (upper body) are ‘probable’ versus the Kings due to injuries, while center Martin Hanzal (lower body) is ‘questionable’ and defenseman Kurt Sauer (concussion) is ‘out.’

Los Angeles center Anze Kopitar (ankle) and right wing Justin Williams (shoulder) are ‘out’ for at least the rest of the regular season.

Phoenix concludes its regular season with a home-and-home series with San Jose. Los Angeles also wraps up the regular campaign with a home-and-home set, playing city rival Anaheim.

The Coyotes have seen the ‘under’ go 7-1 their past eight outings overall, and the ‘under’ is 7-1 the previous eight games versus Western Conference opponents. The Kings are 7-3 their last 10 games against Pacific Division teams, while the ‘under’ has gone 11-5-1 the past 17 divisional opponents.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
04/05/11 15-*11-*1 57.69% +*1535 Detail
04/04/11 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*45 Detail
04/03/11 11-*15-*0 42.31% -*2105 Detail
04/02/11 14-*13-*1 51.85% +*565 Detail
04/01/11 10-*10-*1 50.00% -*35 Detail
Totals 56-*55-*3 50.45% -*85

Wednesday, April 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Angels - 1:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -113 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:45 PM ET Pittsburgh +176 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Seattle - 2:05 PM ET Texas -117 500
Texas - Under 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City -116 500
Kansas City - Over 9 500

Arizona - 2:20 PM ET Arizona +151 500
Chi. Cubs -

LA Dodgers - 3:10 PM ET Colorado -116 500
Colorado - Under 9 500

San Francisco - 6:35 PM ET San Francisco -133 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +136 500
Cleveland - Under 9.5 500

Detroit - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -122 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -156 500
NY Yankees - Under 10.5 500

NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET NY Mets +123 500
Philadelphia - Under 9.5 500

Oakland - 7:07 PM ET Oakland -110 500
Toronto - Under 8.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +130 500
Florida - Under 9 500

Houston - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -204 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, April 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 7:00 PM ET New York +5.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 214 500

Cleveland - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland +5 500
Toronto - Over 209.5 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington +11.5 500
Indiana - Over 207.5 500

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +6 500
Charlotte - Under 182.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -7 500
Detroit - Under 198.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +2.5 500
New Orleans - Over 201 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix -4.5 500
Minnesota - Over 218 500

L.A. Clippers - 8:00 PM ET L.A. Clippers +10.5 500
Oklahoma City - Under 201 500

Denver - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -4.5 500
Dallas - Under 200 500

Sacramento - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio -10.5 500
San Antonio - Over 211 500

L.A. Lakers - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +6 500
Golden State - Under 202 500


------------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Wednesday, April 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +203 500
Boston - Under 5.5 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +140 500
New Jersey - Over 5 500

Florida - 7:00 PM ET Florida +222 500
Washington - Over 5.5 500

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Carolina -111 500
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -180 500
Chicago - Over 5.5 500

Edmonton - 9:30 PM ET Calgary -290 500
Calgary - Under 5.5 500

San Jose - 10:00 PM ET San Jose -106 500
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix +126 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Hornets try to clinch playoff berth hosting Rockets


HOUSTON ROCKETS (41-36)

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (44-33)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 198

The Hornets look to clinch a playoff spot Wednesday night when they host a Rockets team that needs to keep winning if they want to join the postseason party.

Houston suffered a terrible loss on Tuesday night, losing at home to the lowly Kings, 104-101. Sacramento shot 53% from the floor as Samuel Dalembert and DeMarcus Cousins dominated inside with a combined 36 points and 30 rebounds. Houston shot just 42.6% FG and was outscored 58-36 in the paint. The Rockets are now three games behind Memphis for eighth place in the West with just four games remaining in the season. Kevin Martin (23.5 PPG) continues to pace the offense with three straight 30-point games (32.7 PPG). He has scored 25.7 PPG on 50% FG in three meetings with New Orleans this season. The Rockets snapped a five-game losing streak (SU and ATS) in this series when they edged the Hornets 91-89 on Feb. 27. Martin scored 33 that night to help bring his team back from a 16-point, second-half deficit.

New Orleans enters Wednesday in seventh place in the West, one-half game behind Portland for sixth but only one-half game ahead of eighth-place Memphis. The Hornets last played on Sunday, a 108-96 home win over Indiana. New Orleans shot 51.2% FG that game, led by 24 points after three quarters, and outrebounded the Pacers 52-43. Eight players scored eight or more points, led by Trevor Ariza’s 19. Chris Paul had 18 points and eight assists before suffering a left knee injury. The injury is not serious however, and Paul will play Wednesday night. The Hornets already have a star player, leading scorer David West (18.9 PPG), out for the season after he tore his ACL on March 24. Carl Landry has filled West’s spot admirably, averaging 20.2 PPG and 6.4 RPG in five games. Emeka Okafor has also filled some of West’s rebounding duties, as Okafor has five straight double-digit rebound games (12.0 RPG). He also has 12.7 PPG and 12.7 RPG in three meetings with Houston this season.

Starting with the Feb. 27 win at New Orleans, Houston is 6-2 ATS in its past eight road games. The Rockets are now 23-15 ATS (61%) away from home this season, which is tied for fourth-best in the league. The Rockets have also been a nice bounce-back bet, going 19-13 ATS (59.4%) following an ATS defeat. New Orleans has not been a strong bet as a favorite, going 16-23 ATS (41%) when giving points, including 1-3-1 ATS in its past five. I expect Houston to recover quickly from Wednesday’s loss and come away with the vital road win. The FoxSheets provide two trends backing the Rockets:

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games. (82-47 since 1996.) (63.6%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*).

NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS (32.4%, -15.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 96.3, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 2*).

The Hornets are second in the NBA in games finishing Under the total (62.3%) this season, and this FoxSheets trend expects the Under to occur again on Wednesday.

Play Under - Any team (NEW ORLEANS) – well-rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (618-450 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.9%, +123 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Orioles go for 5-0 start hosting Tigers


DETROIT TIGERS (1-3)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (4-0)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -125, Baltimore +115, Total: 8.5

It’s been a nice run for the Orioles so far, but they have a tall order on Wednesday night when spot starter Brad Bergesen goes up against Tigers ace Justin Verlander.

The O’s have faced Verlander seven times and have lost every one of those games. In those seven starts, Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. There’s at least some hope for Baltimore though. New DH Vladimir Guerrero is 6-for-16 career against Verlander (though he has only one extra-base hit, a double, and no walks against him). And since 2008, Verlander’s March/April ERA is 6.17. The Tigers are just 7-10 in his first-month starts.

Of course, Baltimore’s 4-0 start has been more about pitching than hitting. Their lineup has a .268 on-base percentage and 17 runs through four games. Meanwhile, their starting pitchers have given up just two runs over 26 innings. Can Bergesen keep it up? His track record suggests he cannot. The 25-year-old is replacing scheduled starter Jeremy Guthrie, who had to be hospitalized with pneumonia. Bergesen had a 4.98 ERA a year ago, including 5.02 over his 28 starts (the Orioles went 11-17 in those games). He posted a 5.82 ERA this spring, failing to win a rotation spot.

The righty has held his own (3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) in three career starts against Detroit though. As a rookie, he pitched eight innings of two-run ball to beat the Tigers. Last year, he lost both his starts against Detroit, but wasn’t torched (four runs in six innings in a July start, three runs in seven innings in October).

The Orioles have been a different team since manager Buck Showalter came to town last August. Their 38-23 record (.623) is the American League’s best mark during his tenure. That includes six wins in eight games against the Tigers.

Still, Showalter’s managerial magic and a new-found confidence won’t be enough to overcome the disparity in starting pitchers in this game. Detroit should cruise on Wednesday night. The FoxSheets give another reason to play on the Tigers:

JUSTIN VERLANDER is 11-1 (91.7%, +10.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was VERLANDER 5.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

Yankees look to bounce back from disappointing loss


MINNESOTA TWINS (2-3)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (3-2)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -155, Minnesota +145, Total: 10.5

After two straight games decided by a single run, the Minnesota Twins face the New York Yankees in the third game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium Wednesday night. Coming off a rare win over the Yankees on a cold night in the Bronx, the Twins will look to take two straight from the Bombers for the first time since June 2008.

The Yankees led 4-0 in the eighth inning Tuesday night, but Minnesota rallied against the New York bullpen and edged the Yankees 5-4 in 10 innings. Including postseason, it was just the third Minnesota win in 21 games against New York since the start of the 2009 season. The Yankees took the first game of the series on Monday, 4-3.

Twins right-hander Carl Pavano (0-1, 15.75 ERA), who earned just nine wins in making 26 starts for the Yankees after signing a four-year contract prior to the 2005 season, seeks his first win in eight starts (including postseason) against his former team. In the Minnesota season opener, Pavano was knocked around for seven earned runs and surrendered three homers in just four innings pitched, as he took the loss. He’ll have to deal with the red-hot Mark Teixeira, a notoriously slow starter, who has reeled off four HR in five games so far this season.

Veteran right-hander Freddy Garcia will make his Yankees debut. Garcia has bounced around the big leagues since 2007 after a solid eight-year stretch with the Mariners and White Sox, during which he posted seven seasons of 31+ starts and made two All-Star teams. But it’s been a different story in recent years, as he has battled injuries and ineffectiveness. He’s likely to face his Twins nemesis, Jason Kubel, who is 7-for-11 lifetime against Garcia.

I take New York to bounce back Wednesday night with the victory. My choice is supported by these two FoxSheets trends.

Play Against - Any team (MINNESOTA) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after a one run win. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +26.1 units. Rating = 3*).

FREDDY GARCIA is 18-8 (69.2%, +13.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was GARCIA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Reds try to stay unbeaten hosting winless Astros


HOUSTON ASTROS (0-4)

at CINCINNATI REDS (4-0)


First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -190, Houston +180, Total: 8.5

The National League’s lone unbeaten team hosts the NL’s lone winless team on Wednesday night when the 4-0 Reds host the 0-4 Astros for the second of a three-game set. Cincinnati, which defeated Houston 8-2 in the series opener, has not started a season 5-0 since 1980.

After blowing a ninth-inning lead and losing by a run on Opening Day, Houston has been crushed in its past three games by a combined score of 24 to 9. The Astros have been bad in all facets, as they are hitting .215 with a .319 slugging percentage. The starters’ ERA is 9.47 (19 IP, 20 ER) and the bullpen has a 5.40 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Nelson Figueroa will try to put Houston in a position to win when he takes the hill on Wednesday. Figueroa was 4-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 10 starts in an Astros uniform last year. One of his best outings was Sept. 29 in Cincinnati when he shut out Cincinnati for 6.2 innings, allowing just six hits and striking out five. This was quite an improvement from his poor outing 11 days earlier against the Reds (4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R).

The Reds counter with Edinson Volquez who has completely dominated Houston in his brief career. Volquez is 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five lifetime starts against the Astros. He only faced them once last year, striking out eight batters in six innings, and allowing two runs. Volquez was roughed up on Opening Day versus Milwaukee, allowing five runs, which included three home runs, in six innings. Speaking of home runs, the Reds already have eight longballs, and are leading the majors with 7.8 runs per game. They are also hitting a majors-best .338 with an NL-high .566 slugging percentage. The bullpen has also been stellar with a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 innings of work.

Cincinnati has certainly gotten the better of Houston lately, going 23-9 (.719) in the past 32 meetings, including 12-4 (.750) at home. The Reds appear to be the pick here, but the Astros are a huge underdog in a game where the pitching matchup is not nearly as lopsided as the spread would indicate. Volquez had a terrible first outing and he has not been the same dominant pitcher since 2009 Tommy John surgery. Figueroa is a crafty veteran and he will keep the Reds’ hot bats in check. I’m taking the gamble on the big underdog and picking Houston to get its first win of the season. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to pick the Astros.

Play Against - Any team (CINCINNATI) - good team from last season who won 54% to 62% of their games, after a win. (114-85 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.3%, +50.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 straight games with at least 5 less hits than their opponent, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings. (29-12 since 1997.) (70.7%, +21.4 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers seek 13th straight series win over Warriors


LOS ANGELES LAKERS (55-22)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (34-44)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -5.5, Total: 202

Coming off two straight home losses, the last thing the Lakers want to do is hit the road. But if they’re going to get back on track Wednesday night, they’re visiting the right place to do it.

The Lakers have beaten Golden State 12 times in a row SU, including six straight in Oakland. L.A. struggled shooting the ball during its two-game slide (losses to Denver and Utah), scoring just 87.5 PPG while shooting 40.4% from the field and 21.1% from three. Kobe Bryant (24.0 PPG in those two defeats) shot just 35.6% from the field in the losses.

A game against Golden State could cure what ails them. During their 12-game winning streak against the Warriors, the Lakers have averaged an absurd 119.3 PPG while shooting 49.5% from the field. Bryant’s 45.7% shooting from the field (27.7 PPG) in those games has been the low mark. Pau Gasol (23.5 PPG on 61.4% shooting, 11.7 RPG), Andrew Bynum (15.0 PPG on 54.7% shooting, 10.0 RPG) and Lamar Odom (14.8 PPG on 53.5% shooting, 11.5 RPG) have all put up monster numbers against Golden State. Gasol and Bynum are both listed as probable with knee injuries and it has been reported that both will play on Wednesday.

Of course, the Warriors aren’t quite the pushovers they used to be. They’re 24-14 SU (20-18 ATS) at home this year, and they’re coming off an impressive 21-point road win in Portland on Tuesday. Offseason prize acquisition David Lee has been a mild disappointment this season, but he delivered 29 points and a season-high 20 rebounds against the Blazers. Prior to that victory, they beat another of the Western Conference’s elite on Saturday, topping Dallas 99-92 at home. In those two wins, Monta Ellis scored 31.0 PPG and shot 56.4% from the field and 57.1% (8-of-14) from three-point range.

The Warriors also gave L.A. a run for its money when the teams met in Oakland in January. Golden State led by six after three quarters before the Lakers blitzed them in the fourth (outscoring them 46-35) in a 115-110 L.A. win.

Considering each team’s performance over the past two games, as well as the fact that the Warriors have been tough at home all year, my pick is Golden State to cover. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that supports the Warriors in light of their recent turnaround:

Play On - Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games. (71-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Both teams are riding three-game Under streaks, and these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends expect the Under to occur again on Wednesday night.

Play Under - Any team (LA LAKERS) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). (61-23 since 1996.) (72.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*).

LA LAKERS are 37-18 UNDER (67.3%, +17.2 Units) after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 101.4, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Wade doubtful to play vs. Milwaukee


MILWAUKEE BUCKS (31-46)

at MIAMI HEAT (54-23)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -9, Total: 184

The regular season is winding down, and apparently so is Dwyane Wade’s body.

The Heat’s All-Star guard took a knee to the thigh during Sunday’s win over New Jersey and is considered doubtful for Wednesday. Normally it would be a no-brainer to bench him with the playoffs around the corner, but the Heat have an uphill battle for the No. 2 seed in the East and likely home court advantage in the second round of the playoffs. They’re tied with Boston and get the Celtics at home on Sunday, but because the Heat have already dropped three games to the C’s, they’d lose the tiebreaker.

While they may be tempted to rush Wade back, the Heat will likely be fine without him. After a stunning road loss in hostile Cleveland on March 29, they finished their four-game cupcake road trip with blowout wins in Washington (123-107), Minnesota (111-92) and New Jersey (108-94), covering double-digit spreads each time.

LeBron James is going to make history Wednesday night, as he needs only two points to become the youngest player to ever record seven 2,000-point seasons, and the reigning two-time MVP is obviously capable of carrying this team if Wade is out. While he’s gone cold from deep as the season has gone on (25.8% from three over his last 20 games) James is doing just fine inside the arc. Despite the three-point bricks, he’s shooting 57.6% from the field overall and scoring 28.0 PPG in those 20 games. However, the Bucks were able to badger James into an 8-for-23 shooting night when the teams last met, Jan. 7 in Milwaukee. The Heat needed overtime to pull out that win.

Though the playoffs are almost out of reach, the Bucks are still playing hard. They’ve dropped two of three, but covered the spread in each of those games, including a gritty 78-72 loss in Orlando on Tuesday night. They held their opponents below 90 points in each of those games, and haven’t allowed 100 in their past 11 games.

Of course, a lack of offense continues to be an issue. Leading scorer Brandon Jennings has been typically inefficient of late, averaging 18.5 PPG but shooting only 38.8% from the field over the past eight games. The Bucks averaged just 90.3 PPG on 43.8% shooting during that stretch.

But Milwaukee has won four of five ATS on the road, and the Heat have been less-than-dominant when heavily favored this year. Miami is 7-14-1 ATS when favored by nine points or more at home this season. I think the Bucks keep this one close enough to cover. My pick is Milwaukee.

And while the Bucks just played in Orlando Tuesday night, The FoxSheets have a trend that shows they haven’t been bad in back-to-backs:

MILWAUKEE is 30-12 ATS (71.4%, +16.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 96.3, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs try to stop 3-game skid hosting Nuggets


DENVER NUGGETS (47-30)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (53-24)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5, Total: 200

The Mavericks look to get back on the winning track when they begin a three-game homestand Wednesday against a Denver team that has won six of seven. Dallas lost its final three games of a six-game road trip, including a 104-96 defeat at Portland on Sunday.

The Nuggets appear to be firmly entrenched in fifth place, as they trail fourth-place Oklahoma City by four games and lead sixth-place Portland by 2½ games. The Nuggets have been rolling in the post-Carmelo Anthony era, going 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS in the 20 games since the trade. Their six-game win streak was snapped on Tuesday when Oklahoma City beat them 101-94. Ty Lawson had 28 points in the loss and Danilo Gallinari had 17 points and six rebounds. Gallinari had 27 points and six boards in his only meeting with Dallas this year. The Nuggets defense has improved considerably since trading Anthony. Denver has allowed just 95.2 PPG on 43.8% FG (30.2% three-pointers) after surrendering 105.2 PPG on 46.4% FG (35.3% three-pointers) before the blockbuster deal. Arron Afflalo (hamstring) will miss his third straight game on Wednesday, while Chris Andersen (ankle) and Timofey Mozgov (knee/ankle) are also unlikely to play against the Mavs.

Dallas has all but relinquished hopes of earning one of the top two seeds in the West, as it trails the second-place Lakers by two games. The Mavs also lead fourth-place Oklahoma City by two games. Although the Dallas players are happy to be playing at home for the first time in nearly two weeks, the Mavs have not been great on their home court. They are 26-11 SU, but just 16-19 ATS (46%), including a 2-5 ATS mark in their past seven home games. They have also lost eight straight games to teams in the Western Conference playoff race, and Tyson Chandler (10.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) will be a game-time decision because of a bad back. Dirk Nowitzki only scored 16.0 PPG on 35.7% FG in his past two games, but he has averaged 24.7 PPG on 48.2% FG in three meetings with Denver this season.

American Airlines Center used to be a house of horrors for Denver as the Nuggets were 1-11 SU from 2001 to 2007. But since then, the Nuggets hold the 5-3 SU and 6-1-1 ATS advantages when the teams meet in Dallas. The Mavs may pull this game out and end their SU losing streak, but I like Denver to keep things tight and walk away with at least a cover, and maybe a win. This FoxSheets trend also backs the Nuggets:

DENVER is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was DENVER 110.4, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Knicks go for 5th straight win visiting Philadelphia


NEW YORK KNICKS (39-38)

at PHILADELPHIA 76ers (40-38)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -4.5, Total: 211.5

The surging Knicks look to take over the sixth spot from the 76ers and go into the playoffs playing inspired basketball. Philadelphia holds a lead of just one-half game, but, both teams have already clinched postseason berths.

After a rough 10-game stretch (1-9 SU), New York has won four straight and looks to make it five against a familiar Eastern Conference foe. The Knicks are on their way to the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. Finishing sixth or seventh may not matter with the Celtics and Heat battling it out for the second slot. If Carmelo Anthony (25.5 PPG) can shoot like he did Tuesday night, going 5-of-7 from downtown, the Knicks may give an Eastern Conference power a tough first-round series. Anthony and the Knicks put on a shooting clinic at Madison Square Garden in a 131-118 victory over the Raptors on Tuesday. New York scored 78 points in the first half and shot 12-for-16 from behind the arc before halftime. The Knicks finished with 131 points and shot 57.7% from the field. Toney Douglas (10.4 PPG) who will provide big games from time to time, scored 28 points on 10-for-15 shooting (6-of-9 on three-pointers).

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 14 of 17 against Eastern Conference opponents at home this year and look to continue that against the streaking Knicks. The 76ers have been exciting at home this year notching a 25-12 SU (68%) record. Philadelphia is filled with young talent such as second-year player Jrue Holiday, who is averaging 13.9 PPG, 6.3 APG and has led the inexperienced team at the point guard position. Jodie Meeks (10.6 PPG) and Evan Turner (7.1 PPG) also are young guards that give the team a nice added boost. Turner came off the bench Tuesday and scored 21 points in a 99-82 loss to the Celtics. Philadelphia looks to get Elton Brand (14.8 PPG) going, who has been playing through a broken hand. Brand is averaging 27.0 PPG and 9.3 RPG against the Knicks this season and will try to get this young team rolling into the playoffs.

Philadelphia (46-31 ATS, 60%) and New York (42-32 ATS, 57%) rank third and fourth, respectively in the NBA in terms of ATS records. The Knicks are 24-9 ATS (73%) as an underdog and 22-11 ATS (67%) against teams with winning records. The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall, but in the past 10 meetings between these two teams, the road team is 8-2 ATS. The 76ers also are a team that likes a shootout, going 25-12 ATS (68%) against teams who score 99.0 PPG or more. Even though Philadelphia is 23-14 ATS (62%) at home, I think New York, which has been playing terrific basketball will win in a close, high-scoring game. Two more FoxSheets trends that support the Knicks are:

NEW YORK is 18-6 ATS (75.0%, +11.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The average score was NEW YORK 103.9, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*).

NEW YORK is 27-15 ATS (64.3%, +10.5 Units) after a game where they covered the spread this season. The average score was NEW YORK 108.8, OPPONENT 107.0 - (Rating = 1*).